Opinion Poll by Kantar, 14–20 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.8–30.2% 26.5–30.5% 25.9–31.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.2–21.8% 17.7–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.6% 5.5–7.8% 5.2–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 204–223 202–226 200–229 195–234
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 142–159 140–162 138–164 133–168
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–121 103–123 101–125 98–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 62–74 60–76 59–78 56–81
Die Linke 69 60 55–67 53–68 52–70 49–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–61 45–63 42–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–55 43–57 41–58 40–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.3%  
197 0.3% 99.0%  
198 0.7% 98.7%  
199 0.5% 98%  
200 0.9% 98% Last Result
201 1.2% 97%  
202 1.2% 96%  
203 2% 94%  
204 2% 92%  
205 2% 90%  
206 4% 88%  
207 3% 85%  
208 3% 82%  
209 5% 79%  
210 4% 74%  
211 5% 70%  
212 6% 65%  
213 4% 59%  
214 7% 55% Median
215 7% 48%  
216 3% 42%  
217 8% 39%  
218 4% 31%  
219 4% 27%  
220 4% 23%  
221 3% 19%  
222 4% 16%  
223 2% 12%  
224 1.4% 10%  
225 2% 8%  
226 1.2% 6%  
227 1.1% 5%  
228 1.0% 4%  
229 0.6% 3%  
230 0.6% 2%  
231 0.5% 2%  
232 0.2% 1.2%  
233 0.2% 0.9%  
234 0.2% 0.7%  
235 0.2% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.2% 99.7%  
134 0.2% 99.5%  
135 0.3% 99.2%  
136 0.8% 98.9%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 1.5% 98%  
139 1.0% 96%  
140 2% 95%  
141 2% 93%  
142 3% 91%  
143 4% 88%  
144 2% 84%  
145 5% 82%  
146 3% 76%  
147 6% 73%  
148 5% 67%  
149 5% 62%  
150 9% 57% Median
151 5% 48%  
152 7% 44%  
153 4% 37%  
154 6% 34%  
155 5% 27%  
156 3% 22%  
157 4% 19%  
158 3% 14%  
159 3% 12%  
160 1.4% 9%  
161 2% 7%  
162 2% 5%  
163 0.9% 4%  
164 1.0% 3%  
165 0.4% 2%  
166 0.6% 2%  
167 0.2% 1.0%  
168 0.3% 0.8%  
169 0.2% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.9%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 2% 92%  
106 4% 90%  
107 5% 86%  
108 4% 82%  
109 5% 78%  
110 5% 73%  
111 7% 68%  
112 6% 61%  
113 8% 55% Median
114 6% 47%  
115 5% 41%  
116 6% 35%  
117 5% 30%  
118 5% 25%  
119 5% 20%  
120 4% 15%  
121 2% 11%  
122 2% 9%  
123 2% 7%  
124 1.3% 5%  
125 1.2% 4%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.1%  
129 0.2% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.5% 99.4%  
58 1.1% 98.8%  
59 1.4% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 4% 95%  
62 3% 91%  
63 4% 87%  
64 6% 83%  
65 7% 77%  
66 8% 70%  
67 6% 62%  
68 11% 55% Median
69 7% 44%  
70 8% 37%  
71 7% 29%  
72 5% 22%  
73 4% 17%  
74 3% 12%  
75 3% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.2%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.4%  
51 0.9% 98.8%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 5% 91%  
56 4% 87%  
57 7% 82%  
58 8% 76%  
59 9% 67%  
60 9% 58% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 8% 41%  
63 7% 34%  
64 8% 27%  
65 5% 19%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 1.2% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 1.0% 96%  
47 5% 95%  
48 8% 90%  
49 3% 83%  
50 9% 80%  
51 13% 70%  
52 6% 57%  
53 8% 52% Median
54 11% 43%  
55 6% 32%  
56 5% 26%  
57 7% 21%  
58 3% 15%  
59 3% 11%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 1.4% 97%  
43 3% 96%  
44 5% 93%  
45 4% 88%  
46 7% 84% Last Result
47 8% 78%  
48 9% 69%  
49 13% 60% Median
50 9% 47%  
51 7% 39%  
52 8% 32%  
53 6% 23%  
54 4% 17%  
55 5% 13%  
56 2% 8%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.5% 4%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.4%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 518–536 515–539 513–541 508–546
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 467 100% 457–477 454–480 452–483 446–487
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 419–440 417–444 414–446 409–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 415 100% 403–424 400–428 398–431 393–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 384 100% 374–395 371–399 369–401 364–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.6% 366–388 363–391 360–393 355–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 332 0.4% 321–342 319–345 316–348 311–354
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0% 314–335 310–338 308–340 303–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 306–327 304–331 301–333 295–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 306–327 303–331 300–333 296–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 264 0% 253–274 251–277 248–280 243–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 165–183 162–186 159–188 156–193
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 157–175 155–178 153–180 148–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.9%  
506 0.1% 99.8%  
507 0.1% 99.7%  
508 0.2% 99.6%  
509 0.3% 99.4%  
510 0.3% 99.1%  
511 0.5% 98.8%  
512 0.6% 98%  
513 0.7% 98%  
514 1.0% 97%  
515 2% 96%  
516 1.4% 94%  
517 2% 93%  
518 2% 91%  
519 2% 89%  
520 3% 87%  
521 3% 84%  
522 3% 81%  
523 5% 77%  
524 6% 72%  
525 6% 66%  
526 5% 61% Median
527 4% 56%  
528 6% 52%  
529 7% 46%  
530 4% 39%  
531 7% 35%  
532 5% 29%  
533 5% 24%  
534 3% 19%  
535 4% 16%  
536 2% 12%  
537 3% 10%  
538 2% 7%  
539 1.1% 6%  
540 1.2% 4%  
541 0.7% 3%  
542 0.8% 2%  
543 0.4% 2%  
544 0.4% 1.3%  
545 0.3% 0.8%  
546 0.2% 0.6%  
547 0.1% 0.3%  
548 0.1% 0.2%  
549 0.1% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.2% 99.7%  
447 0.2% 99.4%  
448 0.2% 99.3%  
449 0.4% 99.0%  
450 0.6% 98.6%  
451 0.5% 98%  
452 1.0% 98%  
453 0.9% 97%  
454 1.0% 96%  
455 1.4% 95%  
456 2% 93%  
457 2% 91%  
458 3% 90%  
459 3% 87%  
460 3% 84%  
461 3% 81%  
462 5% 77%  
463 5% 73%  
464 6% 68%  
465 4% 62%  
466 5% 58% Median
467 4% 53%  
468 5% 49%  
469 6% 44%  
470 4% 37%  
471 5% 33%  
472 4% 28%  
473 4% 24%  
474 3% 20%  
475 3% 17%  
476 2% 14%  
477 2% 12%  
478 2% 10%  
479 2% 8%  
480 1.3% 6%  
481 1.2% 5%  
482 0.8% 4%  
483 0.7% 3%  
484 0.6% 2%  
485 0.5% 2%  
486 0.3% 1.0%  
487 0.2% 0.7%  
488 0.1% 0.5%  
489 0.1% 0.4%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.5%  
410 0.4% 99.4%  
411 0.2% 99.0%  
412 0.6% 98.7%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 1.1% 97%  
416 0.9% 96%  
417 1.5% 95%  
418 1.0% 94%  
419 3% 93%  
420 2% 90%  
421 3% 88%  
422 3% 85%  
423 4% 82%  
424 3% 78%  
425 5% 75%  
426 4% 70%  
427 4% 66%  
428 5% 62%  
429 6% 57% Median
430 5% 51%  
431 3% 46%  
432 6% 43%  
433 6% 37%  
434 3% 31%  
435 3% 28%  
436 4% 25%  
437 4% 22%  
438 3% 17%  
439 2% 14%  
440 3% 12%  
441 1.2% 9%  
442 2% 8%  
443 0.8% 6%  
444 1.4% 5%  
445 0.9% 4%  
446 0.8% 3%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.1%  
450 0.2% 0.8%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0.1% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.2% 99.7%  
394 0.2% 99.4%  
395 0.6% 99.2%  
396 0.4% 98.6%  
397 0.6% 98%  
398 1.0% 98%  
399 0.9% 97%  
400 1.3% 96%  
401 1.2% 94%  
402 2% 93%  
403 2% 92%  
404 1.4% 90%  
405 2% 88%  
406 2% 86%  
407 2% 84%  
408 3% 82%  
409 3% 78%  
410 4% 75%  
411 5% 72%  
412 5% 66%  
413 6% 62% Median
414 6% 56%  
415 8% 50%  
416 5% 43%  
417 6% 38%  
418 5% 33%  
419 4% 28%  
420 4% 23%  
421 3% 19%  
422 3% 16%  
423 2% 13%  
424 2% 11%  
425 2% 10%  
426 1.2% 8%  
427 1.3% 7%  
428 0.7% 5%  
429 1.3% 4%  
430 0.6% 3%  
431 0.5% 3%  
432 0.6% 2%  
433 0.4% 1.4%  
434 0.2% 1.0%  
435 0.3% 0.8%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.2% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.4% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.4% 98.6%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 1.0% 98%  
370 0.8% 97%  
371 1.0% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 91%  
375 2% 89%  
376 3% 87%  
377 4% 85%  
378 3% 81%  
379 4% 78%  
380 4% 74%  
381 4% 70%  
382 5% 66%  
383 7% 61%  
384 4% 54% Median
385 4% 50%  
386 4% 46%  
387 5% 42%  
388 5% 36%  
389 3% 31%  
390 4% 28%  
391 5% 24%  
392 3% 19%  
393 2% 16%  
394 2% 14%  
395 3% 12%  
396 1.4% 9%  
397 1.3% 8%  
398 1.3% 6%  
399 1.2% 5%  
400 0.9% 4%  
401 0.6% 3%  
402 0.7% 2%  
403 0.4% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.2%  
405 0.3% 0.9%  
406 0.2% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.3% 99.5%  
357 0.3% 99.2%  
358 0.3% 99.0%  
359 0.6% 98.6%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 0.6% 97%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 1.1% 96%  
364 2% 95%  
365 2% 93%  
366 2% 91%  
367 3% 90%  
368 2% 87%  
369 4% 85%  
370 3% 81%  
371 4% 79%  
372 4% 75%  
373 4% 71%  
374 5% 67%  
375 5% 62%  
376 4% 57% Median
377 5% 53%  
378 5% 48%  
379 6% 43%  
380 4% 37%  
381 5% 34%  
382 5% 29%  
383 3% 24%  
384 3% 21%  
385 3% 19%  
386 3% 16%  
387 2% 13%  
388 3% 11%  
389 1.5% 8%  
390 1.2% 6%  
391 1.0% 5%  
392 1.4% 4%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 0.7% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.2% 1.2%  
397 0.3% 1.0%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.3% 99.0%  
314 0.6% 98.7%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 0.9% 97%  
318 1.0% 96%  
319 1.5% 95%  
320 2% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 3% 90%  
323 3% 87%  
324 3% 84%  
325 3% 82%  
326 4% 78%  
327 4% 75%  
328 4% 71%  
329 5% 66%  
330 5% 62%  
331 6% 57% Median
332 5% 51%  
333 6% 46%  
334 4% 40%  
335 5% 37%  
336 5% 32%  
337 5% 27%  
338 4% 23%  
339 3% 19%  
340 2% 16% Last Result
341 3% 14%  
342 1.5% 11%  
343 2% 9%  
344 1.4% 8%  
345 1.4% 6%  
346 1.0% 5%  
347 0.9% 4%  
348 0.7% 3%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.3% 1.3%  
352 0.3% 1.0%  
353 0.2% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.3%  
305 0.3% 99.1%  
306 0.4% 98.8%  
307 0.7% 98%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 0.9% 97%  
310 1.2% 96%  
311 1.3% 95%  
312 1.3% 94%  
313 1.4% 92%  
314 3% 91%  
315 2% 88%  
316 2% 86%  
317 3% 84%  
318 5% 81%  
319 4% 76%  
320 3% 72%  
321 5% 69%  
322 5% 64%  
323 4% 58% Median
324 4% 54%  
325 4% 50%  
326 7% 46%  
327 5% 39%  
328 4% 34%  
329 4% 30%  
330 4% 26%  
331 3% 22%  
332 4% 19%  
333 3% 15%  
334 2% 13%  
335 2% 11%  
336 2% 9%  
337 2% 7%  
338 1.0% 5%  
339 0.8% 4%  
340 1.0% 3%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.4%  
344 0.4% 1.0%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.3% 98.9%  
299 0.4% 98.6%  
300 0.5% 98% Last Result
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.8% 97%  
303 1.1% 96%  
304 1.2% 95%  
305 3% 94%  
306 2% 91%  
307 3% 89%  
308 3% 85%  
309 3% 82%  
310 2% 79%  
311 3% 76%  
312 3% 74%  
313 4% 71%  
314 5% 67%  
315 4% 63%  
316 8% 59% Median
317 4% 51%  
318 9% 48%  
319 4% 39%  
320 7% 36%  
321 3% 28%  
322 4% 26%  
323 3% 22%  
324 3% 19%  
325 2% 16%  
326 2% 14%  
327 2% 11%  
328 2% 10%  
329 1.1% 8%  
330 2% 7%  
331 1.1% 5%  
332 1.3% 4%  
333 0.8% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.3% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.4% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 98.9%  
299 0.5% 98.6%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.9% 97%  
302 1.0% 97%  
303 1.2% 96%  
304 1.4% 94%  
305 2% 93%  
306 2% 91%  
307 3% 89%  
308 3% 87%  
309 4% 84%  
310 3% 80%  
311 4% 78%  
312 5% 73%  
313 4% 69%  
314 5% 65%  
315 5% 60%  
316 5% 55% Median
317 4% 50%  
318 4% 46%  
319 7% 42%  
320 4% 36%  
321 4% 32%  
322 4% 28%  
323 4% 25%  
324 4% 20%  
325 2% 17%  
326 3% 15% Last Result
327 2% 12%  
328 2% 10%  
329 2% 8%  
330 1.1% 6%  
331 1.3% 5%  
332 0.8% 4%  
333 0.8% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.4% 1.3%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.2% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.2% 99.4%  
245 0.3% 99.2%  
246 0.3% 98.8%  
247 0.5% 98.5%  
248 0.8% 98%  
249 0.9% 97%  
250 1.4% 96%  
251 2% 95%  
252 2% 93%  
253 2% 91%  
254 3% 89%  
255 3% 86%  
256 3% 83%  
257 2% 80%  
258 3% 78%  
259 3% 74%  
260 4% 71%  
261 5% 68%  
262 3% 63%  
263 7% 60% Median
264 7% 52%  
265 5% 45%  
266 4% 40%  
267 7% 36%  
268 3% 29%  
269 4% 26%  
270 4% 22%  
271 2% 18%  
272 2% 16%  
273 3% 14%  
274 2% 12%  
275 1.3% 9%  
276 2% 8%  
277 2% 6%  
278 1.1% 4%  
279 0.8% 3%  
280 0.9% 3%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.4% 1.2%  
283 0.3% 0.9%  
284 0.2% 0.6%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.5% 99.5%  
158 0.5% 99.0%  
159 1.3% 98.5%  
160 0.5% 97%  
161 1.1% 97%  
162 0.8% 96%  
163 0.9% 95%  
164 3% 94%  
165 3% 91%  
166 5% 87%  
167 2% 82%  
168 3% 80%  
169 2% 77%  
170 4% 75%  
171 6% 71%  
172 9% 64%  
173 6% 55% Median
174 4% 49%  
175 3% 45%  
176 3% 42%  
177 7% 39%  
178 4% 32%  
179 8% 27%  
180 3% 19%  
181 2% 16%  
182 2% 14%  
183 2% 11%  
184 3% 10%  
185 1.4% 7%  
186 2% 5%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.6% 3%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.4% 99.2%  
151 0.4% 98.8%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 1.1% 98%  
154 1.2% 97%  
155 1.4% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 3% 92%  
158 2% 89%  
159 4% 87%  
160 4% 83%  
161 4% 79%  
162 5% 75%  
163 5% 71%  
164 9% 66%  
165 4% 57%  
166 6% 53% Median
167 5% 47%  
168 6% 42%  
169 5% 36%  
170 5% 31%  
171 4% 26%  
172 3% 22%  
173 4% 19%  
174 3% 14%  
175 2% 11%  
176 2% 9%  
177 2% 7%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 0.9% 4%  
180 1.0% 3%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.1%  
184 0.3% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations