Opinion Poll by Forsa, 18–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.9–31.3% 28.5–31.7% 28.2–32.0% 27.7–32.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.1% 16.7–19.4% 16.5–19.6% 16.0–20.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.5–10.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.3–7.7% 6.1–7.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.7–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 220–238 217–239 213–243 212–249
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 130–143 127–147 126–148 122–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–122 105–124 104–126 100–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–75 61–76 60–77 58–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 55 48–58 47–60 45–61 43–65
Die Linke 69 53 48–58 47–60 46–61 44–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 48–58 47–61 46–61 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 100%  
207 0.2% 100%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0% 99.6%  
211 0% 99.6%  
212 1.0% 99.6%  
213 2% 98.6%  
214 0% 96%  
215 0% 96%  
216 0.2% 96%  
217 1.3% 96%  
218 0.5% 95%  
219 0.6% 94%  
220 4% 94%  
221 1.4% 90%  
222 2% 88%  
223 2% 86%  
224 14% 85%  
225 4% 71%  
226 3% 67%  
227 0.6% 64%  
228 4% 63%  
229 10% 59% Median
230 0.1% 49%  
231 0.9% 49%  
232 22% 48%  
233 4% 26%  
234 2% 22%  
235 0.6% 20%  
236 3% 20%  
237 5% 17%  
238 7% 12%  
239 0.8% 5%  
240 1.0% 5%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 0.7% 3%  
243 0.7% 3%  
244 0.6% 2%  
245 0% 1.3%  
246 0.1% 1.2%  
247 0% 1.1%  
248 0.6% 1.1%  
249 0.2% 0.5%  
250 0.2% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.3% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.5%  
123 0.3% 99.4%  
124 0.8% 99.1%  
125 0.6% 98%  
126 2% 98%  
127 0.6% 96%  
128 1.4% 95%  
129 2% 94%  
130 6% 91%  
131 5% 85%  
132 2% 80%  
133 4% 79%  
134 12% 74%  
135 14% 63% Median
136 2% 48%  
137 8% 47%  
138 10% 39%  
139 7% 29%  
140 0.8% 22%  
141 2% 21%  
142 8% 19%  
143 3% 12%  
144 0.7% 9%  
145 1.2% 8%  
146 1.4% 7%  
147 3% 5%  
148 0.4% 3%  
149 0.2% 2%  
150 0.3% 2%  
151 1.1% 2%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.5%  
155 0.3% 0.4%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.2% 99.5%  
102 1.0% 99.2%  
103 0.7% 98%  
104 1.2% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 1.4% 94%  
107 7% 93%  
108 2% 86%  
109 3% 84%  
110 6% 81%  
111 2% 75%  
112 15% 73%  
113 3% 59%  
114 9% 56% Median
115 5% 47%  
116 5% 42%  
117 2% 36%  
118 9% 34%  
119 8% 25%  
120 4% 17%  
121 1.5% 13%  
122 3% 11%  
123 2% 8%  
124 1.2% 5%  
125 1.3% 4%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.8% 2%  
128 1.0% 2%  
129 0.1% 0.6%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.7%  
59 0.5% 99.2%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 2% 97%  
62 5% 95%  
63 3% 90%  
64 4% 88%  
65 3% 84%  
66 4% 80%  
67 15% 76%  
68 10% 61%  
69 19% 51% Median
70 5% 32%  
71 4% 27%  
72 3% 23%  
73 3% 20%  
74 2% 16%  
75 7% 14%  
76 3% 7%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.4%  
80 0.5% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.9% 99.4%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 0.7% 97%  
47 4% 96%  
48 3% 92%  
49 5% 89%  
50 3% 85%  
51 3% 82%  
52 8% 78%  
53 10% 70%  
54 2% 61%  
55 11% 58% Median
56 28% 48%  
57 3% 20%  
58 8% 17%  
59 4% 10%  
60 1.0% 5%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.6%  
45 0.3% 98%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 93%  
49 11% 90%  
50 3% 79%  
51 11% 76%  
52 3% 65%  
53 22% 63% Median
54 8% 41%  
55 4% 33%  
56 6% 29%  
57 5% 22%  
58 8% 17%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 0.6% 99.2%  
45 0.9% 98.6%  
46 3% 98% Last Result
47 5% 95%  
48 7% 91%  
49 2% 84%  
50 4% 82%  
51 9% 77%  
52 23% 68% Median
53 11% 45%  
54 2% 35%  
55 4% 32%  
56 6% 28%  
57 9% 22%  
58 4% 13%  
59 1.1% 8%  
60 2% 7%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 525–541 522–544 520–546 516–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 474 100% 463–481 460–483 457–485 453–491
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 452 100% 441–459 438–462 435–464 431–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 419 100% 410–428 407–430 405–433 399–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 405 100% 394–414 391–417 388–418 384–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 389–406 382–411 380–412 377–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 353 24% 342–360 338–363 335–365 331–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 338 2% 322–342 321–343 321–353 320–356
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 304 0% 295–315 292–318 291–321 286–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 305 0% 295–314 293–317 290–320 286–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 250 0% 241–260 239–264 237–266 233–271
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 160–177 158–180 156–182 152–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 160–176 158–179 156–181 152–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0.1% 99.9%  
514 0.1% 99.8%  
515 0.1% 99.8%  
516 0.1% 99.6%  
517 0.1% 99.5%  
518 0.3% 99.4%  
519 0.6% 99.1%  
520 2% 98%  
521 0.3% 97%  
522 2% 96%  
523 1.1% 95%  
524 3% 93%  
525 1.2% 91%  
526 5% 89%  
527 2% 85%  
528 4% 82%  
529 3% 78%  
530 3% 75% Median
531 17% 72%  
532 4% 55%  
533 9% 51%  
534 3% 41%  
535 8% 39%  
536 2% 31%  
537 8% 29%  
538 5% 21%  
539 3% 16%  
540 2% 14%  
541 2% 12%  
542 2% 10%  
543 0.9% 7%  
544 3% 7%  
545 0.8% 4%  
546 0.3% 3%  
547 0.4% 2%  
548 1.1% 2%  
549 0.6% 1.0%  
550 0.2% 0.4%  
551 0% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.2%  
553 0.1% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0.1% 100%  
450 0.1% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0.3% 99.8%  
453 0.3% 99.5%  
454 0.1% 99.2%  
455 0.3% 99.2%  
456 1.1% 98.8%  
457 0.8% 98%  
458 1.0% 97%  
459 0.6% 96%  
460 2% 95%  
461 0.9% 93%  
462 1.4% 92%  
463 2% 91%  
464 1.1% 88%  
465 2% 87%  
466 3% 86%  
467 1.4% 83%  
468 6% 81%  
469 3% 75%  
470 0.8% 72%  
471 12% 71% Median
472 5% 59%  
473 2% 54%  
474 8% 52%  
475 15% 45%  
476 4% 30%  
477 4% 26%  
478 4% 22%  
479 5% 18%  
480 1.2% 13%  
481 4% 12%  
482 2% 8%  
483 1.0% 6%  
484 1.1% 5%  
485 1.2% 3%  
486 0.4% 2%  
487 0.5% 2%  
488 0.5% 1.5%  
489 0.2% 1.0%  
490 0.1% 0.7%  
491 0.2% 0.6%  
492 0.2% 0.4%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.2% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.8% 99.5%  
433 0.2% 98.7%  
434 0.9% 98%  
435 0.8% 98%  
436 0.9% 97%  
437 0.3% 96%  
438 0.9% 95%  
439 2% 95%  
440 1.2% 93%  
441 2% 92%  
442 2% 90%  
443 1.3% 88%  
444 4% 87%  
445 6% 82%  
446 4% 77%  
447 2% 73%  
448 2% 70%  
449 2% 68%  
450 5% 66% Median
451 5% 61%  
452 17% 56%  
453 6% 39%  
454 1.2% 33%  
455 9% 31%  
456 8% 22%  
457 2% 15%  
458 1.2% 12%  
459 2% 11%  
460 3% 10%  
461 2% 7%  
462 1.2% 5%  
463 0.9% 4%  
464 0.6% 3%  
465 0.6% 2%  
466 0.4% 2%  
467 0.5% 1.3%  
468 0.2% 0.8%  
469 0.2% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0.1% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.3% 99.7%  
400 0.1% 99.5%  
401 0.3% 99.4%  
402 0.1% 99.1%  
403 0.6% 99.0%  
404 0.8% 98%  
405 2% 98%  
406 0.7% 96%  
407 1.0% 95%  
408 2% 94%  
409 2% 93%  
410 2% 90%  
411 2% 88%  
412 3% 86%  
413 5% 83%  
414 3% 78%  
415 7% 74%  
416 6% 67% Median
417 3% 61%  
418 8% 58%  
419 13% 50%  
420 2% 37%  
421 6% 34%  
422 3% 29%  
423 3% 26%  
424 6% 23%  
425 2% 18%  
426 3% 16%  
427 2% 13%  
428 4% 11%  
429 1.2% 7%  
430 1.3% 6%  
431 0.8% 5%  
432 0.4% 4%  
433 1.4% 4%  
434 0.7% 2%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.3% 1.3%  
437 0.4% 0.9%  
438 0.1% 0.5%  
439 0.2% 0.4%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
380 0% 100%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.3% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.5% 99.2%  
387 0.3% 98.8%  
388 1.1% 98%  
389 0.5% 97%  
390 1.2% 97%  
391 3% 96%  
392 1.1% 93%  
393 1.0% 92%  
394 2% 91%  
395 2% 89%  
396 0.5% 87%  
397 2% 86%  
398 2% 84%  
399 2% 82%  
400 3% 80%  
401 3% 78%  
402 3% 74%  
403 5% 71%  
404 12% 66%  
405 5% 55% Median
406 3% 49%  
407 7% 46%  
408 2% 39%  
409 16% 37%  
410 1.4% 21%  
411 1.3% 19%  
412 6% 18%  
413 1.3% 12%  
414 0.6% 10%  
415 3% 10%  
416 1.1% 7%  
417 3% 6%  
418 0.7% 3%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.5% 2% Last Result
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.4% 1.3%  
423 0.4% 0.8%  
424 0% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0.1% 100%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.6% 99.7%  
378 0.3% 99.1%  
379 1.1% 98.8%  
380 0.7% 98%  
381 1.0% 97%  
382 1.1% 96%  
383 2% 95%  
384 0.5% 93%  
385 0.7% 93%  
386 0.4% 92%  
387 0.9% 92%  
388 0.3% 91%  
389 1.0% 91%  
390 2% 89%  
391 1.1% 88%  
392 4% 87%  
393 6% 82%  
394 6% 76%  
395 6% 70% Median
396 17% 64%  
397 8% 47%  
398 4% 39%  
399 9% 35% Last Result
400 8% 26%  
401 3% 18%  
402 2% 14%  
403 0.8% 13%  
404 1.0% 12%  
405 1.0% 11%  
406 0.3% 10%  
407 1.1% 10%  
408 1.4% 9%  
409 1.3% 7%  
410 0.9% 6%  
411 2% 5%  
412 1.2% 3%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.7% 2%  
415 0.6% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0.1% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0.2% 99.8%  
331 0.7% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.0%  
333 0.4% 98.9%  
334 0.9% 98%  
335 0.4% 98%  
336 1.0% 97%  
337 0.6% 96%  
338 0.8% 96%  
339 3% 95%  
340 0.3% 92% Last Result
341 0.6% 92%  
342 3% 91%  
343 3% 88%  
344 3% 86%  
345 6% 82%  
346 1.0% 76%  
347 2% 75%  
348 13% 74%  
349 3% 61%  
350 2% 57% Median
351 3% 56%  
352 3% 53%  
353 23% 50%  
354 4% 28%  
355 2% 24% Majority
356 2% 22%  
357 5% 21%  
358 1.0% 16%  
359 3% 15%  
360 2% 12%  
361 0.5% 9%  
362 4% 9%  
363 2% 5%  
364 0.4% 3%  
365 0.8% 3%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.1%  
369 0.2% 1.0%  
370 0.3% 0.8%  
371 0.2% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.2% 99.8%  
320 2% 99.6%  
321 4% 98%  
322 5% 94%  
323 3% 89%  
324 1.4% 86%  
325 1.1% 85%  
326 0.7% 84% Last Result
327 0.6% 83%  
328 0.1% 82%  
329 0% 82%  
330 0% 82%  
331 0% 82%  
332 0% 82%  
333 0.2% 82%  
334 0.8% 82%  
335 4% 81%  
336 5% 77% Median
337 22% 73%  
338 8% 50%  
339 5% 42%  
340 20% 37%  
341 5% 17%  
342 7% 12%  
343 0.9% 5%  
344 0.2% 4%  
345 0% 4%  
346 0% 4%  
347 0% 4%  
348 0% 4%  
349 0% 4%  
350 0.4% 4%  
351 0.6% 4%  
352 0.3% 3%  
353 0.3% 3%  
354 0.6% 2%  
355 0.7% 2% Majority
356 0.7% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0.4% 99.6%  
287 0.4% 99.2%  
288 0.4% 98.7%  
289 0.5% 98% Last Result
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 3% 97%  
293 1.1% 94%  
294 3% 93%  
295 0.6% 90%  
296 1.3% 90%  
297 6% 88%  
298 1.3% 82%  
299 1.4% 81%  
300 16% 79%  
301 2% 63%  
302 7% 61% Median
303 3% 54%  
304 5% 51%  
305 12% 45%  
306 5% 34%  
307 3% 29%  
308 3% 26%  
309 3% 22%  
310 2% 20%  
311 2% 18%  
312 2% 16%  
313 0.5% 14%  
314 2% 13%  
315 2% 11%  
316 1.0% 9%  
317 1.1% 8%  
318 3% 7%  
319 1.2% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 1.1% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.5% 1.2%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.3% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0.1% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0.1% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.6%  
287 0.3% 99.4%  
288 0.5% 99.1%  
289 0.3% 98.6%  
290 2% 98%  
291 1.0% 97%  
292 0.4% 96%  
293 1.4% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 92%  
296 3% 90%  
297 2% 87%  
298 3% 85%  
299 4% 82%  
300 3% 78% Last Result
301 4% 76%  
302 7% 72%  
303 13% 66%  
304 3% 53% Median
305 8% 50%  
306 2% 43%  
307 5% 41%  
308 7% 36%  
309 4% 30%  
310 4% 26%  
311 2% 22%  
312 8% 20%  
313 2% 12%  
314 2% 10%  
315 1.0% 8%  
316 2% 7%  
317 1.3% 5%  
318 0.5% 4%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 1.2% 3%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0.6% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.4%  
327 0.2% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.4% 99.5%  
234 0.4% 99.1%  
235 0.3% 98.7%  
236 0.5% 98%  
237 0.9% 98%  
238 2% 97%  
239 1.2% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 3% 93%  
242 0.4% 90%  
243 3% 89%  
244 5% 86%  
245 2% 81%  
246 5% 80%  
247 12% 75%  
248 3% 62%  
249 4% 60% Median
250 6% 56%  
251 4% 49%  
252 9% 45%  
253 5% 36%  
254 1.1% 31%  
255 1.5% 30%  
256 9% 28%  
257 3% 19%  
258 4% 16%  
259 1.1% 13%  
260 2% 11%  
261 1.3% 9%  
262 1.3% 8%  
263 1.4% 7%  
264 2% 5%  
265 0.6% 4%  
266 0.8% 3%  
267 0.7% 2%  
268 0.1% 2%  
269 0.7% 1.4%  
270 0.1% 0.7%  
271 0.1% 0.6%  
272 0.3% 0.5%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.2% 99.3%  
154 0.5% 99.1%  
155 0.4% 98.6%  
156 2% 98%  
157 0.7% 96%  
158 1.3% 96%  
159 2% 94%  
160 5% 92%  
161 3% 88%  
162 4% 85%  
163 4% 81%  
164 5% 77%  
165 16% 72%  
166 3% 57%  
167 5% 54% Median
168 11% 49%  
169 3% 38%  
170 4% 35%  
171 8% 31%  
172 2% 23%  
173 3% 21%  
174 4% 18%  
175 0.9% 14%  
176 2% 13%  
177 3% 11%  
178 1.4% 8%  
179 1.2% 7%  
180 2% 6%  
181 0.3% 3%  
182 1.2% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.2% 1.2%  
185 0.6% 1.1%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.5% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.1%  
154 0.6% 98.9%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 1.5% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 1.5% 93%  
160 6% 92%  
161 2% 86%  
162 3% 84%  
163 2% 81%  
164 3% 79%  
165 6% 77%  
166 4% 71%  
167 4% 66%  
168 15% 63%  
169 4% 48% Median
170 5% 44%  
171 6% 39%  
172 4% 33%  
173 4% 29%  
174 7% 25%  
175 7% 18%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 7%  
179 0.8% 5%  
180 1.5% 5%  
181 1.1% 3%  
182 1.0% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.6%  
186 0.1% 0.5%  
187 0.2% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations