Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for Bild, 22–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 208 202–220 199–224 197–224 193–229
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 121–136 118–138 117–140 113–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 114–128 111–132 109–132 105–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–82 67–84 66–86 63–88
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 56–67 54–68 52–69 49–72
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 54–68 53–70 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–58 46–61 46–61 42–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0.2% 100%  
190 0.2% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.6%  
192 0% 99.6%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 2% 99.5%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0% 98%  
197 0.4% 98%  
198 0.7% 97%  
199 3% 96%  
200 0.1% 93% Last Result
201 0.1% 93%  
202 5% 93%  
203 5% 88%  
204 0.2% 83%  
205 0% 83%  
206 3% 82%  
207 27% 80%  
208 3% 53% Median
209 0.1% 50%  
210 0.8% 50%  
211 12% 49%  
212 8% 37%  
213 0.2% 29%  
214 2% 29%  
215 4% 27%  
216 4% 24%  
217 0.7% 20%  
218 0.1% 19%  
219 4% 19%  
220 8% 15%  
221 0.2% 7%  
222 0% 7%  
223 0.2% 7%  
224 5% 7%  
225 1.3% 2%  
226 0% 1.1%  
227 0.1% 1.0%  
228 0.3% 1.0%  
229 0.3% 0.7%  
230 0.1% 0.4%  
231 0% 0.3%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.2% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 99.3%  
115 0.3% 98.8%  
116 0.1% 98.5%  
117 2% 98%  
118 1.3% 96%  
119 0.4% 95%  
120 2% 94%  
121 7% 92%  
122 0.7% 85%  
123 5% 84%  
124 5% 79%  
125 1.2% 75%  
126 5% 73%  
127 21% 69% Median
128 1.4% 48%  
129 1.0% 46%  
130 11% 45%  
131 6% 34%  
132 5% 28%  
133 8% 23%  
134 3% 15%  
135 1.3% 13%  
136 5% 11%  
137 1.1% 6%  
138 0.4% 5%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.8% 2%  
142 0.1% 1.1%  
143 0.4% 1.0%  
144 0.3% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.8% 99.5%  
107 0.2% 98.7%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 0.7% 98%  
110 0.6% 97%  
111 2% 97%  
112 1.0% 95%  
113 0.8% 94%  
114 5% 93%  
115 4% 88%  
116 16% 84%  
117 2% 68%  
118 6% 66%  
119 2% 60%  
120 19% 58% Median
121 3% 39%  
122 13% 36%  
123 1.3% 22%  
124 4% 21%  
125 2% 17%  
126 4% 16%  
127 1.5% 12%  
128 1.4% 11%  
129 0.7% 9%  
130 3% 8%  
131 0.6% 6%  
132 3% 5%  
133 0.1% 2%  
134 1.1% 2%  
135 0.1% 1.0%  
136 0.1% 0.9%  
137 0.5% 0.8%  
138 0% 0.3%  
139 0.2% 0.3%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.0%  
66 2% 98.5%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 2% 92%  
70 4% 90%  
71 4% 86%  
72 7% 82%  
73 7% 75%  
74 3% 68%  
75 12% 64%  
76 11% 52% Median
77 4% 42%  
78 6% 37%  
79 8% 31%  
80 5% 23%  
81 8% 19%  
82 3% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 0.9% 3%  
86 0.5% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.0%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.5% 99.0%  
52 1.3% 98.5%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 2% 92%  
56 6% 91%  
57 5% 84%  
58 13% 79%  
59 5% 66%  
60 6% 61%  
61 10% 55% Median
62 15% 45%  
63 5% 30%  
64 5% 25%  
65 6% 20%  
66 3% 14%  
67 6% 11%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.3% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.6% 99.0%  
52 0.4% 98%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 8% 94%  
56 10% 86%  
57 4% 76%  
58 5% 71%  
59 3% 66%  
60 9% 63%  
61 20% 53% Median
62 11% 34%  
63 7% 23%  
64 2% 16%  
65 2% 14%  
66 3% 12%  
67 3% 9%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.0% 3% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.1% 1.1%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.4% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.3%  
44 0.3% 98.8%  
45 0.8% 98%  
46 3% 98% Last Result
47 6% 95%  
48 3% 89%  
49 4% 85%  
50 4% 82%  
51 10% 77%  
52 10% 68%  
53 11% 57% Median
54 2% 46%  
55 7% 44%  
56 8% 37%  
57 17% 29%  
58 3% 13%  
59 2% 10%  
60 2% 8%  
61 4% 6%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.1% 0.8%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 511 100% 503–522 502–524 498–527 495–530
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 444–464 440–465 436–467 434–472
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 445 100% 435–454 432–457 430–461 424–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 401 100% 390–409 386–412 384–415 378–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 391 100% 381–402 380–407 378–408 371–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 375–395 373–398 369–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 2% 329–349 326–352 322–354 319–360
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 326 0% 314–336 310–337 308–340 305–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 301–320 297–323 294–326 288–329
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 308 0% 300–319 297–323 294–325 288–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 241–260 237–262 234–265 228–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 173–190 170–194 169–195 164–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 171–190 171–193 168–194 164–199

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0% 99.7%  
494 0.2% 99.7%  
495 0.2% 99.5%  
496 0.7% 99.4%  
497 1.0% 98.7%  
498 0.5% 98%  
499 0.5% 97%  
500 0.7% 97%  
501 0.8% 96%  
502 1.0% 95%  
503 5% 94%  
504 3% 89%  
505 8% 86%  
506 2% 78%  
507 2% 76%  
508 5% 74% Median
509 2% 69%  
510 5% 67%  
511 17% 62%  
512 3% 45%  
513 6% 41%  
514 1.2% 35%  
515 2% 34%  
516 1.1% 32%  
517 7% 31%  
518 4% 24%  
519 2% 21%  
520 4% 18%  
521 3% 14%  
522 2% 11%  
523 4% 9%  
524 0.9% 5%  
525 0.8% 4%  
526 0.6% 3%  
527 0.6% 3%  
528 0.8% 2%  
529 0.9% 1.4%  
530 0.1% 0.6%  
531 0.1% 0.5%  
532 0.1% 0.3%  
533 0% 0.2%  
534 0% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.3% 99.6%  
435 1.2% 99.3%  
436 0.7% 98%  
437 0.2% 97%  
438 0.2% 97%  
439 0.4% 97%  
440 2% 97%  
441 2% 95%  
442 1.5% 93%  
443 2% 92%  
444 2% 90%  
445 2% 88%  
446 8% 86%  
447 5% 78%  
448 1.0% 73%  
449 2% 72% Median
450 1.1% 70%  
451 4% 69%  
452 10% 65%  
453 14% 55%  
454 2% 40%  
455 7% 38%  
456 6% 31%  
457 2% 25%  
458 2% 23%  
459 3% 21%  
460 0.4% 18%  
461 1.2% 17%  
462 2% 16%  
463 3% 15%  
464 5% 12%  
465 4% 7%  
466 0.4% 3%  
467 0.3% 3%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.2% 2%  
470 0.6% 1.5%  
471 0.2% 0.8%  
472 0.2% 0.6%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.6% 99.8%  
425 0.2% 99.2%  
426 0.5% 99.0%  
427 0.2% 98.6%  
428 0.1% 98%  
429 0.7% 98%  
430 1.4% 98%  
431 0.6% 96%  
432 0.8% 96%  
433 3% 95%  
434 2% 92%  
435 2% 90%  
436 0.9% 88%  
437 6% 88%  
438 2% 82%  
439 1.2% 80%  
440 4% 79%  
441 4% 75%  
442 8% 71% Median
443 5% 63%  
444 3% 58%  
445 7% 54%  
446 11% 47%  
447 8% 36%  
448 2% 29%  
449 4% 27%  
450 0.6% 23%  
451 2% 22%  
452 4% 20%  
453 3% 16%  
454 5% 13%  
455 1.0% 7%  
456 1.1% 6%  
457 0.7% 5%  
458 0.7% 5%  
459 0.2% 4%  
460 1.1% 4%  
461 1.1% 3%  
462 0.6% 2%  
463 0.1% 0.9%  
464 0.4% 0.8%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0.1% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.3% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.4%  
380 0.2% 99.3%  
381 0.4% 99.1%  
382 0.7% 98.6%  
383 0.1% 98%  
384 1.0% 98%  
385 1.3% 97%  
386 1.1% 96%  
387 2% 94%  
388 0.4% 92%  
389 2% 92%  
390 3% 91%  
391 0.6% 88%  
392 2% 87%  
393 2% 85%  
394 5% 84%  
395 2% 79%  
396 3% 77%  
397 4% 74%  
398 3% 70% Median
399 8% 67%  
400 1.1% 60%  
401 14% 58%  
402 6% 45%  
403 4% 39%  
404 7% 35%  
405 1.3% 28%  
406 8% 27%  
407 2% 19%  
408 4% 17%  
409 4% 13%  
410 0.9% 9%  
411 1.5% 8%  
412 2% 7%  
413 1.2% 5%  
414 0.8% 4%  
415 0.7% 3%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.3% 1.3%  
419 0.2% 1.0%  
420 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.2% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.2% 99.7%  
371 0.3% 99.5%  
372 0% 99.2%  
373 0.2% 99.2%  
374 0.3% 99.0%  
375 0.1% 98.8%  
376 0.3% 98.6%  
377 0.8% 98%  
378 2% 98%  
379 0.7% 96%  
380 2% 95%  
381 5% 93%  
382 2% 88%  
383 1.3% 86%  
384 3% 85%  
385 0.5% 83%  
386 4% 82%  
387 2% 78%  
388 5% 76% Median
389 8% 71%  
390 3% 63%  
391 18% 60%  
392 1.4% 42%  
393 3% 40%  
394 4% 37%  
395 0.3% 33%  
396 1.0% 33%  
397 3% 32%  
398 3% 29%  
399 8% 26%  
400 2% 18%  
401 5% 16%  
402 4% 12%  
403 0.6% 8%  
404 0.7% 7%  
405 0.2% 7%  
406 0.7% 6%  
407 3% 6%  
408 1.0% 3%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.7% 2%  
411 0.7% 1.2%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.4% 99.7%  
365 0.4% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 98.8%  
367 0.2% 98.6%  
368 0.4% 98%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.6% 97%  
371 0.7% 97%  
372 0.7% 96%  
373 3% 95%  
374 1.0% 93%  
375 6% 92%  
376 0.9% 85%  
377 6% 84%  
378 2% 78%  
379 6% 76%  
380 2% 70%  
381 3% 68% Median
382 7% 65%  
383 3% 58%  
384 18% 55%  
385 2% 37%  
386 5% 35%  
387 3% 31%  
388 4% 28%  
389 0.7% 24%  
390 5% 24%  
391 4% 18%  
392 2% 14%  
393 2% 13%  
394 0.7% 11%  
395 1.2% 10%  
396 2% 9%  
397 1.0% 8%  
398 3% 6%  
399 0.5% 4% Last Result
400 0.9% 3%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.8% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.1%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.3% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.5% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 1.0% 98.9%  
322 0.5% 98%  
323 0.3% 97%  
324 0.2% 97%  
325 1.4% 97%  
326 1.2% 95%  
327 2% 94%  
328 2% 92%  
329 2% 91%  
330 1.0% 89%  
331 2% 88%  
332 3% 86%  
333 2% 84%  
334 2% 81%  
335 9% 80%  
336 2% 70%  
337 1.2% 68% Median
338 2% 67%  
339 17% 65%  
340 6% 48% Last Result
341 5% 41%  
342 3% 36%  
343 1.1% 33%  
344 2% 32%  
345 8% 30%  
346 4% 22%  
347 4% 18%  
348 3% 14%  
349 1.1% 11%  
350 0.5% 10%  
351 2% 9%  
352 4% 8%  
353 0.6% 4%  
354 0.9% 3%  
355 0.3% 2% Majority
356 0.1% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.7% 2%  
359 0.1% 0.9%  
360 0.3% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.7%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 1.2% 99.7%  
306 0.7% 98.5%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.7% 98%  
309 2% 97%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 0.6% 94%  
312 1.2% 94%  
313 1.2% 93%  
314 2% 91%  
315 2% 89%  
316 3% 88%  
317 4% 85%  
318 0.8% 81%  
319 0.9% 80%  
320 2% 79%  
321 9% 77%  
322 4% 68% Median
323 1.0% 63%  
324 0.7% 62%  
325 11% 62%  
326 21% 51% Last Result
327 3% 30%  
328 2% 27%  
329 3% 25%  
330 1.3% 23%  
331 1.2% 21%  
332 5% 20%  
333 4% 15%  
334 0.8% 11%  
335 0.1% 10%  
336 0.6% 10%  
337 6% 10%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.1% 3%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.9% 2%  
342 0.5% 1.4%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0.3% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.2% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.3% 99.4%  
291 0.5% 99.0%  
292 0.5% 98.6%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 0.6% 98%  
295 1.5% 97%  
296 0.5% 96%  
297 0.6% 95%  
298 0.9% 94%  
299 0.8% 94%  
300 0.6% 93% Last Result
301 5% 92%  
302 2% 87%  
303 2% 85%  
304 3% 83%  
305 5% 80%  
306 8% 74%  
307 4% 66%  
308 10% 63% Median
309 16% 52%  
310 4% 36%  
311 4% 32%  
312 1.1% 28%  
313 7% 27%  
314 4% 21%  
315 1.3% 17%  
316 2% 16%  
317 0.8% 14%  
318 0.7% 13%  
319 1.1% 12%  
320 2% 11%  
321 1.5% 9%  
322 0.9% 8%  
323 2% 7%  
324 1.0% 4%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.9% 3%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.8% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.2% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.2%  
291 0.3% 99.0%  
292 0.4% 98.7%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.8% 97%  
296 1.2% 96%  
297 2% 95%  
298 1.5% 93%  
299 0.9% 92%  
300 4% 91%  
301 4% 87%  
302 2% 83%  
303 8% 81%  
304 1.3% 73%  
305 7% 72%  
306 4% 65%  
307 6% 61%  
308 14% 55% Median
309 1.1% 42%  
310 8% 40%  
311 3% 33%  
312 4% 30%  
313 3% 26%  
314 2% 23%  
315 5% 21%  
316 2% 16%  
317 2% 15%  
318 0.6% 13%  
319 3% 12%  
320 2% 9%  
321 0.4% 8%  
322 2% 8%  
323 1.1% 6%  
324 1.3% 4%  
325 1.0% 3%  
326 0.1% 2%  
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.3% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.4%  
230 0.8% 99.3%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 2% 97%  
236 0.5% 96%  
237 1.3% 95%  
238 0.9% 94%  
239 0.9% 93%  
240 0.2% 92%  
241 3% 92%  
242 4% 89%  
243 8% 85%  
244 0.8% 77%  
245 5% 76%  
246 6% 71%  
247 21% 65% Median
248 8% 44%  
249 3% 36%  
250 5% 34%  
251 3% 29%  
252 3% 26%  
253 5% 23%  
254 1.2% 18%  
255 1.2% 16%  
256 2% 15%  
257 0.5% 13%  
258 2% 13%  
259 1.0% 11%  
260 3% 10%  
261 0.3% 7%  
262 2% 6%  
263 0.5% 5%  
264 0.8% 4%  
265 2% 3%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.2% 1.0%  
268 0.3% 0.8%  
269 0.2% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.7%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.2% 99.3%  
166 0.6% 99.1%  
167 0.4% 98%  
168 0.5% 98%  
169 0.9% 98%  
170 2% 97%  
171 2% 95%  
172 1.1% 93%  
173 2% 92%  
174 7% 90%  
175 4% 83%  
176 4% 79%  
177 8% 75%  
178 8% 68%  
179 3% 60%  
180 2% 57%  
181 7% 55% Median
182 12% 48%  
183 8% 36%  
184 4% 28%  
185 2% 24%  
186 4% 22%  
187 5% 18%  
188 2% 13%  
189 0.7% 11%  
190 2% 10%  
191 1.2% 9%  
192 0.6% 7%  
193 2% 7%  
194 1.1% 5%  
195 1.4% 4%  
196 0.3% 2%  
197 0.2% 2%  
198 0.8% 2%  
199 0.8% 1.2%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.3% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.1% 99.5%  
165 0.6% 99.4%  
166 0.4% 98.8%  
167 0.5% 98%  
168 0.8% 98%  
169 1.1% 97%  
170 0.8% 96%  
171 5% 95%  
172 0.3% 90%  
173 6% 90%  
174 3% 83%  
175 0.6% 80%  
176 7% 79%  
177 7% 72%  
178 4% 65%  
179 9% 61%  
180 2% 52%  
181 12% 50% Median
182 6% 38%  
183 0.7% 32%  
184 8% 31%  
185 4% 23%  
186 0.8% 19%  
187 4% 18%  
188 3% 14%  
189 0.3% 10%  
190 3% 10%  
191 1.3% 7%  
192 0.2% 6%  
193 3% 6%  
194 0.5% 3%  
195 0.1% 2%  
196 1.1% 2%  
197 0% 0.9%  
198 0.4% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.5%  
200 0% 0.4%  
201 0.2% 0.3%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations