Opinion Poll by Kantar, 21–27 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.8–30.9% 27.3–31.3% 27.0–31.7% 26.3–32.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.3–20.8% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 209–232 206–235 203–238 198–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 133–153 130–156 128–158 124–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–123 102–125 100–127 96–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 61–75 59–77 57–80 54–83
Die Linke 69 60 54–68 52–69 50–71 47–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–60 45–62 43–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–58 43–60 42–61 39–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.3% 99.4%  
200 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
201 0.5% 98.8%  
202 0.4% 98%  
203 0.7% 98%  
204 1.1% 97%  
205 0.8% 96%  
206 1.4% 95%  
207 2% 94%  
208 2% 92%  
209 2% 90%  
210 2% 88%  
211 3% 86%  
212 3% 84%  
213 3% 81%  
214 5% 78%  
215 3% 73%  
216 4% 70%  
217 4% 66%  
218 5% 61%  
219 4% 57%  
220 3% 53% Median
221 4% 49%  
222 4% 45%  
223 4% 41%  
224 5% 37%  
225 4% 32%  
226 3% 28%  
227 3% 25%  
228 3% 22%  
229 3% 19%  
230 2% 16%  
231 2% 14%  
232 2% 12%  
233 2% 9%  
234 1.5% 8%  
235 1.2% 6%  
236 1.1% 5%  
237 0.7% 4%  
238 0.7% 3%  
239 0.6% 2%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.4%  
242 0.3% 1.1%  
243 0.2% 0.8%  
244 0.2% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0.1% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.4% 99.0%  
127 0.6% 98.6%  
128 0.6% 98%  
129 1.1% 97%  
130 1.3% 96%  
131 2% 95%  
132 2% 93%  
133 2% 91%  
134 3% 89%  
135 3% 87%  
136 3% 84%  
137 5% 81%  
138 4% 76%  
139 6% 72%  
140 4% 66%  
141 6% 62%  
142 4% 56%  
143 5% 52% Median
144 5% 47%  
145 4% 42%  
146 6% 38%  
147 4% 32%  
148 5% 28%  
149 4% 23%  
150 3% 19%  
151 2% 16%  
152 2% 14%  
153 2% 11%  
154 2% 9%  
155 2% 8%  
156 1.3% 6%  
157 1.1% 4%  
158 0.8% 3%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.4%  
162 0.3% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.8%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.5%  
97 0.4% 99.2%  
98 0.6% 98.9%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 1.3% 97%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 2% 91%  
105 3% 89%  
106 3% 86%  
107 4% 83%  
108 5% 79%  
109 6% 73%  
110 5% 68%  
111 5% 63%  
112 5% 57%  
113 4% 53% Median
114 5% 49%  
115 6% 43%  
116 5% 37%  
117 5% 32%  
118 6% 27%  
119 3% 21%  
120 3% 18%  
121 3% 15%  
122 2% 12%  
123 2% 10%  
124 2% 8%  
125 1.4% 6%  
126 1.3% 5%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.2%  
131 0.2% 0.9%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.6% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 98.8%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 90%  
62 4% 87%  
63 6% 83%  
64 5% 77%  
65 7% 72%  
66 6% 65%  
67 7% 59%  
68 9% 52% Median
69 5% 44%  
70 8% 39%  
71 5% 31%  
72 5% 26%  
73 6% 21%  
74 2% 15%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 0.8% 3%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.1%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 95%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 4% 87%  
56 5% 83%  
57 7% 77%  
58 6% 70%  
59 7% 64%  
60 7% 57% Median
61 7% 50%  
62 7% 43%  
63 6% 36%  
64 6% 30%  
65 7% 24%  
66 3% 18%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 1.4% 5%  
71 1.1% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 1.1% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 4% 86%  
49 6% 82%  
50 7% 76%  
51 7% 69%  
52 6% 61%  
53 7% 55% Median
54 8% 47%  
55 7% 39%  
56 7% 32%  
57 5% 25%  
58 5% 20%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 7%  
62 1.4% 5%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.6% 99.3%  
41 1.0% 98.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 4% 94%  
45 4% 90%  
46 5% 86% Last Result
47 7% 81%  
48 7% 75%  
49 7% 68%  
50 8% 61%  
51 9% 52% Median
52 7% 43%  
53 7% 37%  
54 6% 30%  
55 5% 24%  
56 4% 19%  
57 4% 14%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 517–538 514–541 511–544 505–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 467 100% 456–479 452–483 449–485 444–491
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 438 100% 425–450 422–453 419–456 413–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 414 100% 402–427 399–430 396–433 390–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 380–405 376–408 373–411 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 99.9% 372–397 368–400 366–404 360–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 6% 327–352 324–355 321–358 314–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0.1% 312–337 308–340 305–343 299–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 304–329 301–333 298–336 292–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 310 0% 297–322 293–325 291–328 285–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 244–268 241–271 238–274 233–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 163–184 160–187 157–190 153–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 156–177 153–180 150–182 146–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.1% 99.7%  
505 0.2% 99.6%  
506 0.2% 99.4%  
507 0.3% 99.3%  
508 0.2% 98.9%  
509 0.5% 98.7%  
510 0.6% 98%  
511 0.7% 98%  
512 1.1% 97%  
513 0.7% 96%  
514 1.4% 95%  
515 1.1% 94%  
516 2% 93%  
517 2% 90%  
518 3% 88%  
519 3% 85%  
520 3% 83%  
521 4% 80%  
522 4% 76%  
523 4% 72%  
524 4% 67%  
525 5% 63%  
526 3% 58%  
527 5% 55% Median
528 4% 50%  
529 5% 46%  
530 5% 41%  
531 4% 36%  
532 4% 32%  
533 3% 28%  
534 4% 24%  
535 3% 20%  
536 3% 17%  
537 3% 14%  
538 2% 12%  
539 2% 10%  
540 1.1% 7%  
541 1.4% 6%  
542 1.0% 5%  
543 1.0% 4%  
544 0.7% 3%  
545 0.6% 2%  
546 0.4% 2%  
547 0.4% 1.2%  
548 0.3% 0.8%  
549 0.2% 0.6%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.9%  
441 0.1% 99.8%  
442 0.1% 99.7%  
443 0.2% 99.7%  
444 0.1% 99.5%  
445 0.3% 99.4%  
446 0.3% 99.1%  
447 0.4% 98.8%  
448 0.4% 98%  
449 0.7% 98%  
450 0.8% 97%  
451 0.6% 96%  
452 1.2% 96%  
453 1.5% 95%  
454 1.1% 93%  
455 2% 92%  
456 2% 90%  
457 2% 89%  
458 3% 87%  
459 3% 84%  
460 3% 82%  
461 3% 78%  
462 5% 75%  
463 3% 70%  
464 5% 67%  
465 5% 63%  
466 5% 58%  
467 5% 53% Median
468 4% 48%  
469 4% 44%  
470 5% 41%  
471 4% 36%  
472 3% 32%  
473 4% 29%  
474 3% 26%  
475 3% 22%  
476 4% 20%  
477 2% 16%  
478 3% 15%  
479 2% 12%  
480 2% 10%  
481 2% 8%  
482 1.3% 6%  
483 1.2% 5%  
484 0.8% 4%  
485 0.7% 3%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.5% 2%  
488 0.3% 1.3%  
489 0.2% 1.0%  
490 0.2% 0.8%  
491 0.1% 0.6%  
492 0.1% 0.5%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0.2% 99.6%  
414 0.2% 99.5%  
415 0.2% 99.2%  
416 0.4% 99.0%  
417 0.4% 98.6%  
418 0.4% 98%  
419 0.7% 98%  
420 0.9% 97%  
421 1.1% 96%  
422 0.8% 95%  
423 1.4% 94%  
424 1.4% 93%  
425 2% 92%  
426 2% 90%  
427 2% 88%  
428 2% 86%  
429 3% 83%  
430 4% 81%  
431 3% 77%  
432 4% 75%  
433 4% 70%  
434 3% 66%  
435 4% 62%  
436 4% 58%  
437 5% 55% Median
438 4% 50%  
439 6% 47%  
440 3% 41%  
441 3% 38%  
442 3% 35%  
443 4% 32%  
444 4% 28%  
445 4% 23%  
446 2% 20%  
447 3% 17%  
448 3% 15%  
449 2% 12%  
450 2% 10%  
451 1.5% 8%  
452 1.0% 7%  
453 0.9% 6%  
454 0.9% 5%  
455 1.1% 4%  
456 0.7% 3%  
457 0.3% 2%  
458 0.3% 2%  
459 0.4% 1.4%  
460 0.3% 1.0%  
461 0.2% 0.7%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.5%  
391 0.2% 99.3%  
392 0.3% 99.2%  
393 0.5% 98.9%  
394 0.3% 98%  
395 0.4% 98%  
396 0.7% 98%  
397 0.9% 97%  
398 0.7% 96%  
399 2% 95%  
400 0.9% 94%  
401 2% 93%  
402 2% 91%  
403 2% 89%  
404 2% 87%  
405 2% 85%  
406 3% 83%  
407 3% 79%  
408 4% 77%  
409 4% 72%  
410 4% 69%  
411 4% 65%  
412 4% 61%  
413 5% 57%  
414 4% 52% Median
415 5% 48%  
416 3% 44%  
417 5% 41%  
418 3% 36%  
419 3% 33%  
420 3% 29%  
421 3% 26%  
422 3% 23%  
423 2% 20%  
424 3% 18%  
425 2% 15%  
426 2% 13%  
427 2% 11%  
428 2% 9%  
429 1.5% 8%  
430 1.2% 6%  
431 0.8% 5%  
432 1.0% 4%  
433 0.6% 3%  
434 0.7% 2%  
435 0.4% 2%  
436 0.3% 1.4%  
437 0.2% 1.1%  
438 0.3% 0.8%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.7%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.9% 97%  
375 0.7% 96%  
376 1.2% 96%  
377 0.9% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 89%  
382 2% 87%  
383 3% 85%  
384 2% 82%  
385 4% 80%  
386 3% 76%  
387 4% 73%  
388 3% 69%  
389 5% 66%  
390 2% 61%  
391 5% 58%  
392 4% 53% Median
393 5% 49%  
394 3% 44%  
395 4% 41%  
396 3% 36%  
397 3% 33%  
398 4% 30%  
399 4% 26%  
400 3% 22%  
401 3% 20%  
402 2% 17%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 2% 10%  
406 1.4% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 0.9% 6%  
409 0.7% 5%  
410 0.9% 4%  
411 0.8% 3%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.0%  
363 0.3% 98.9%  
364 0.7% 98.5%  
365 0.3% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 1.0% 97%  
368 1.1% 96%  
369 1.0% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 2% 92%  
372 1.3% 91%  
373 2% 89%  
374 3% 87%  
375 2% 84%  
376 3% 82%  
377 4% 79%  
378 3% 75%  
379 3% 72%  
380 4% 70%  
381 4% 66%  
382 3% 61%  
383 3% 58%  
384 7% 56% Median
385 3% 48%  
386 3% 45%  
387 4% 42%  
388 4% 38%  
389 3% 34%  
390 5% 31%  
391 4% 27%  
392 2% 23%  
393 3% 20%  
394 3% 18%  
395 2% 15%  
396 2% 13%  
397 3% 11%  
398 2% 9%  
399 1.1% 7% Last Result
400 1.0% 6%  
401 1.0% 5%  
402 0.6% 4%  
403 0.7% 3%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.3% 1.4%  
407 0.3% 1.1%  
408 0.2% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.7%  
410 0.2% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.3%  
317 0.3% 99.1%  
318 0.3% 98.8%  
319 0.4% 98.5%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 0.8% 98%  
322 0.8% 97%  
323 0.9% 96%  
324 2% 95%  
325 2% 93%  
326 1.5% 92%  
327 2% 90%  
328 2% 89%  
329 2% 86%  
330 3% 84%  
331 3% 81%  
332 3% 78%  
333 4% 75%  
334 4% 71%  
335 4% 66%  
336 3% 63%  
337 4% 59%  
338 4% 55%  
339 4% 51% Median
340 4% 47% Last Result
341 3% 44%  
342 4% 40%  
343 4% 36%  
344 2% 32%  
345 4% 31%  
346 2% 26%  
347 3% 24%  
348 2% 21%  
349 2% 19%  
350 3% 16%  
351 3% 14%  
352 2% 11%  
353 1.4% 9%  
354 1.4% 8%  
355 2% 6% Majority
356 1.0% 5%  
357 0.8% 4%  
358 0.5% 3%  
359 0.6% 2%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.3%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.5% 98.6%  
305 1.1% 98%  
306 0.8% 97%  
307 0.8% 96%  
308 0.6% 95%  
309 0.8% 95%  
310 1.1% 94%  
311 1.4% 93%  
312 2% 92%  
313 2% 89%  
314 2% 87%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 82%  
317 2% 78%  
318 2% 76%  
319 3% 74%  
320 4% 72%  
321 6% 68%  
322 4% 62%  
323 6% 58%  
324 4% 52% Median
325 4% 48%  
326 3% 44% Last Result
327 3% 41%  
328 3% 38%  
329 4% 35%  
330 4% 31%  
331 4% 27%  
332 4% 23%  
333 2% 19%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 13%  
337 1.4% 11%  
338 1.2% 10%  
339 2% 8%  
340 1.4% 6%  
341 1.2% 5%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.2%  
348 0.3% 1.0%  
349 0.2% 0.7%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.1%  
295 0.3% 99.0%  
296 0.3% 98.6%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.8% 98%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 0.7% 96%  
301 0.9% 95%  
302 2% 94%  
303 1.4% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 88%  
307 2% 86%  
308 3% 83%  
309 3% 80%  
310 4% 78%  
311 4% 74%  
312 3% 70%  
313 3% 67%  
314 4% 64%  
315 3% 59%  
316 5% 56% Median
317 4% 51%  
318 5% 47%  
319 2% 42%  
320 5% 39%  
321 3% 34%  
322 4% 31%  
323 3% 27%  
324 4% 24%  
325 2% 20%  
326 3% 18%  
327 2% 15%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 2% 8%  
332 0.9% 6%  
333 1.2% 5%  
334 0.7% 4%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.4%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 99.0%  
289 0.5% 98.7%  
290 0.6% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 1.1% 97%  
293 1.3% 96%  
294 1.2% 95%  
295 1.2% 93%  
296 2% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 3% 88%  
299 3% 85%  
300 3% 83% Last Result
301 3% 80%  
302 4% 77%  
303 3% 73%  
304 4% 70%  
305 3% 67%  
306 3% 63%  
307 3% 60%  
308 3% 57%  
309 4% 54% Median
310 4% 50%  
311 3% 46%  
312 3% 43%  
313 4% 39%  
314 3% 35%  
315 3% 32%  
316 4% 29%  
317 3% 25%  
318 3% 22%  
319 4% 19%  
320 2% 15%  
321 3% 13%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.2% 6%  
325 1.0% 5%  
326 0.9% 4%  
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.6% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.2% 99.5%  
234 0.3% 99.3%  
235 0.3% 99.1%  
236 0.4% 98.8%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 1.0% 97%  
240 0.8% 96%  
241 1.4% 95%  
242 1.2% 94%  
243 1.3% 93%  
244 2% 92%  
245 2% 90%  
246 2% 88%  
247 4% 85%  
248 3% 82%  
249 3% 79%  
250 2% 76%  
251 5% 73%  
252 4% 69%  
253 5% 65%  
254 4% 60%  
255 5% 56%  
256 3% 51% Median
257 4% 48%  
258 3% 44%  
259 5% 40%  
260 3% 36%  
261 4% 32%  
262 3% 29%  
263 3% 26%  
264 4% 22%  
265 2% 19%  
266 2% 16%  
267 3% 14%  
268 2% 11%  
269 1.3% 9%  
270 2% 8%  
271 2% 6%  
272 0.7% 5%  
273 0.8% 4%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.6% 2%  
276 0.4% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.3% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.9%  
280 0.1% 0.6%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.5%  
154 0.4% 99.3%  
155 0.4% 99.0%  
156 0.5% 98.6%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.5% 97%  
159 1.0% 97%  
160 1.1% 96%  
161 1.5% 95%  
162 2% 93%  
163 3% 91%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 86%  
166 3% 83%  
167 2% 80%  
168 4% 78%  
169 3% 74%  
170 4% 70%  
171 5% 66%  
172 6% 61%  
173 5% 55% Median
174 5% 50%  
175 4% 44%  
176 3% 41%  
177 5% 38%  
178 5% 33%  
179 3% 28%  
180 5% 25%  
181 4% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 14%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.4% 6%  
188 1.1% 5%  
189 1.0% 4%  
190 0.4% 3%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 1.0%  
195 0.3% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.3% 99.4%  
148 0.3% 99.0%  
149 0.4% 98.7%  
150 0.9% 98%  
151 1.1% 97%  
152 1.1% 96%  
153 2% 95%  
154 1.1% 93%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 90%  
157 3% 87%  
158 3% 84%  
159 3% 81%  
160 3% 78%  
161 6% 75%  
162 3% 69%  
163 4% 66%  
164 6% 62%  
165 3% 57%  
166 4% 54% Median
167 4% 50%  
168 4% 46%  
169 6% 42%  
170 5% 36%  
171 3% 32%  
172 5% 29%  
173 3% 24%  
174 3% 21%  
175 5% 18%  
176 2% 13%  
177 3% 11%  
178 1.5% 8%  
179 1.3% 7%  
180 1.4% 5%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.3% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 1.0%  
187 0.1% 0.7%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations