Opinion Poll by Forsa, 26 January–1 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.0% 28.7–31.4% 28.3–31.8% 28.0–32.1% 27.4–32.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 219–240 216–243 214–246 209–253
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 135–154 133–156 132–159 128–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–123 104–125 103–127 99–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–52 39–53 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.2% 99.7%  
209 0.2% 99.5%  
210 0.3% 99.3%  
211 0.5% 99.0%  
212 0.4% 98%  
213 0.5% 98%  
214 1.0% 98%  
215 1.1% 97%  
216 1.3% 96%  
217 1.4% 94%  
218 2% 93%  
219 3% 90%  
220 2% 87%  
221 3% 85%  
222 3% 82%  
223 4% 79%  
224 4% 75%  
225 4% 71%  
226 4% 67%  
227 5% 63%  
228 6% 58%  
229 5% 52% Median
230 6% 47%  
231 4% 41%  
232 3% 37%  
233 5% 34%  
234 4% 29%  
235 3% 25%  
236 4% 22%  
237 3% 18%  
238 3% 15%  
239 2% 12%  
240 1.5% 10%  
241 2% 9%  
242 1.4% 7%  
243 1.1% 6%  
244 0.8% 4%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 0.6% 3%  
247 0.6% 2%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.3% 1.5%  
250 0.2% 1.2%  
251 0.3% 1.0%  
252 0.1% 0.6%  
253 0.1% 0.5%  
254 0.1% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.1% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.6%  
129 0.3% 99.5%  
130 0.5% 99.2%  
131 1.0% 98.6%  
132 1.3% 98%  
133 2% 96%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 3% 90%  
137 2% 87%  
138 2% 86%  
139 3% 84%  
140 4% 81%  
141 6% 77%  
142 7% 71%  
143 10% 64%  
144 6% 54% Median
145 7% 48%  
146 6% 41%  
147 4% 35%  
148 3% 31%  
149 2% 28%  
150 4% 26%  
151 4% 22%  
152 4% 18%  
153 3% 14%  
154 3% 11%  
155 2% 8%  
156 2% 6%  
157 1.0% 5%  
158 0.5% 4%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.6% 2%  
161 0.4% 2%  
162 0.4% 1.3%  
163 0.3% 0.9%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 1.3% 98%  
104 1.5% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 3% 93%  
107 3% 90%  
108 4% 87%  
109 5% 83%  
110 4% 78%  
111 7% 74%  
112 5% 67%  
113 7% 62%  
114 6% 55% Median
115 6% 49%  
116 6% 43%  
117 5% 36%  
118 5% 31%  
119 5% 27%  
120 5% 22%  
121 4% 17%  
122 2% 13%  
123 2% 11%  
124 2% 8%  
125 2% 6%  
126 1.2% 4%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.1%  
131 0.3% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 92%  
56 6% 89%  
57 6% 83%  
58 5% 77%  
59 10% 72%  
60 6% 62%  
61 7% 56% Median
62 10% 48%  
63 8% 39%  
64 7% 31%  
65 5% 24%  
66 6% 19%  
67 3% 13%  
68 3% 10%  
69 3% 7%  
70 1.4% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 4% 88%  
57 6% 84%  
58 8% 78%  
59 7% 70%  
60 8% 63%  
61 8% 56% Median
62 9% 48%  
63 7% 39%  
64 7% 31%  
65 6% 24%  
66 5% 18%  
67 3% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.2% 4%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 0.9% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 4% 94%  
48 4% 90%  
49 6% 86%  
50 8% 80%  
51 9% 72%  
52 9% 63%  
53 9% 55% Median
54 8% 46%  
55 8% 38%  
56 7% 30%  
57 6% 23%  
58 4% 17%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.4%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0% 97%  
38 0.5% 97%  
39 2% 96%  
40 2% 94%  
41 2% 92%  
42 5% 90%  
43 8% 85%  
44 12% 77%  
45 13% 66%  
46 14% 53% Median
47 9% 39%  
48 5% 29%  
49 3% 24%  
50 5% 21%  
51 5% 16%  
52 4% 12%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.3% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 541 100% 531–551 529–555 527–575 522–584
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 472 100% 462–483 458–485 454–488 448–492
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 442 100% 430–453 427–455 423–458 416–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 416–438 413–443 410–451 405–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 386–408 382–413 379–420 374–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 389 99.7% 377–400 373–403 368–405 357–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 10% 332–354 329–359 327–364 321–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0.1% 316–339 311–341 305–344 293–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0.3% 309–332 306–336 304–341 298–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 304 0% 293–316 289–319 282–321 270–327
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 249–270 246–274 244–278 239–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 176 0% 166–186 164–188 161–191 157–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 151–170 147–172 127–174 116–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 99.9%  
519 0.1% 99.9%  
520 0.1% 99.8%  
521 0.1% 99.7%  
522 0.2% 99.6%  
523 0.3% 99.4%  
524 0.4% 99.1%  
525 0.5% 98.7%  
526 0.7% 98%  
527 0.8% 98%  
528 1.3% 97%  
529 1.3% 95%  
530 2% 94%  
531 2% 92%  
532 2% 90%  
533 3% 88%  
534 4% 85%  
535 3% 81%  
536 5% 78%  
537 6% 73%  
538 4% 68%  
539 5% 64%  
540 6% 58% Median
541 5% 52%  
542 6% 47%  
543 7% 41%  
544 3% 33%  
545 5% 30%  
546 5% 25%  
547 3% 20%  
548 4% 17%  
549 2% 14%  
550 2% 12%  
551 2% 10%  
552 1.3% 8%  
553 0.8% 7%  
554 0.8% 6%  
555 0.5% 5%  
556 0.5% 5%  
557 0.4% 4%  
558 0.2% 4%  
559 0.2% 4%  
560 0.1% 4%  
561 0.1% 3%  
562 0.1% 3%  
563 0% 3%  
564 0% 3%  
565 0% 3%  
566 0% 3%  
567 0% 3%  
568 0% 3%  
569 0% 3%  
570 0% 3%  
571 0.1% 3%  
572 0.1% 3%  
573 0.1% 3%  
574 0.2% 3%  
575 0.1% 3%  
576 0.2% 2%  
577 0.2% 2%  
578 0.3% 2%  
579 0.2% 2%  
580 0.3% 2%  
581 0.2% 1.3%  
582 0.4% 1.2%  
583 0.1% 0.7%  
584 0.2% 0.6%  
585 0.2% 0.5%  
586 0.1% 0.3%  
587 0.1% 0.2%  
588 0.1% 0.1%  
589 0.1% 0.1%  
590 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0.1% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.8%  
444 0% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.6%  
448 0.2% 99.5%  
449 0.2% 99.4%  
450 0.2% 99.2%  
451 0.2% 99.0%  
452 0.2% 98.8%  
453 0.4% 98.6%  
454 0.8% 98%  
455 0.5% 97%  
456 0.5% 97%  
457 0.8% 96%  
458 1.3% 96%  
459 2% 94%  
460 1.1% 93%  
461 2% 92%  
462 2% 90%  
463 3% 88%  
464 2% 85%  
465 2% 82%  
466 4% 80%  
467 6% 76%  
468 3% 70%  
469 3% 67%  
470 5% 64%  
471 6% 59%  
472 5% 53% Median
473 3% 48%  
474 4% 45%  
475 7% 42%  
476 5% 34%  
477 3% 30%  
478 4% 27%  
479 5% 23%  
480 4% 18%  
481 2% 14%  
482 2% 13%  
483 3% 11%  
484 2% 8%  
485 1.0% 6%  
486 0.9% 5%  
487 1.2% 4%  
488 0.9% 3%  
489 0.4% 2%  
490 0.3% 1.5%  
491 0.4% 1.1%  
492 0.3% 0.7%  
493 0.1% 0.5%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0.1% 0.3%  
496 0.1% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.3% 99.5%  
418 0.2% 99.2%  
419 0.1% 99.0%  
420 0.2% 98.9%  
421 0.2% 98.7%  
422 0.6% 98.5%  
423 0.6% 98%  
424 0.7% 97%  
425 0.8% 97%  
426 0.6% 96%  
427 0.6% 95%  
428 0.9% 95%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 92%  
431 3% 90%  
432 1.4% 87%  
433 2% 85%  
434 2% 84%  
435 2% 82%  
436 3% 79%  
437 5% 77%  
438 5% 71%  
439 5% 66%  
440 6% 61%  
441 4% 55%  
442 3% 51% Median
443 3% 49%  
444 5% 45%  
445 4% 40%  
446 8% 36%  
447 4% 27%  
448 3% 24%  
449 2% 21%  
450 2% 19%  
451 3% 17%  
452 3% 13%  
453 3% 11%  
454 2% 8%  
455 2% 6%  
456 0.8% 4%  
457 0.7% 4%  
458 0.4% 3%  
459 0.5% 2%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.5% 1.4%  
462 0.4% 0.9%  
463 0.2% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.2% 99.5%  
407 0.4% 99.2%  
408 0.4% 98.9%  
409 0.6% 98.5%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.7% 97%  
412 0.8% 97%  
413 1.0% 96%  
414 2% 95%  
415 2% 93%  
416 2% 91%  
417 3% 89%  
418 2% 86%  
419 3% 83%  
420 3% 80%  
421 4% 77%  
422 5% 73%  
423 5% 68%  
424 3% 63%  
425 4% 60%  
426 5% 56% Median
427 4% 51%  
428 4% 47%  
429 7% 43%  
430 4% 36%  
431 4% 32%  
432 3% 28%  
433 3% 25%  
434 4% 22%  
435 3% 18%  
436 3% 15%  
437 2% 12%  
438 1.3% 10%  
439 1.1% 9%  
440 1.2% 8%  
441 0.6% 7%  
442 1.0% 6%  
443 0.6% 5%  
444 0.5% 5%  
445 0.4% 4%  
446 0.2% 4%  
447 0.2% 3%  
448 0.3% 3%  
449 0.3% 3%  
450 0.1% 3%  
451 0.1% 3%  
452 0.1% 2%  
453 0.3% 2%  
454 0.2% 2%  
455 0.1% 2%  
456 0.2% 2%  
457 0.1% 2%  
458 0.2% 2%  
459 0.1% 1.3%  
460 0.1% 1.3%  
461 0.2% 1.2%  
462 0.3% 1.0%  
463 0.1% 0.6%  
464 0% 0.6%  
465 0.1% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0% 0.3%  
469 0.2% 0.3%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.3% 99.1%  
378 0.3% 98.8%  
379 1.0% 98%  
380 0.5% 97%  
381 1.0% 97%  
382 1.0% 96%  
383 1.1% 95%  
384 1.2% 94%  
385 2% 93%  
386 2% 90%  
387 4% 88%  
388 3% 85%  
389 3% 82%  
390 2% 78%  
391 3% 76%  
392 5% 73%  
393 5% 68%  
394 5% 63%  
395 5% 58%  
396 5% 53% Median
397 4% 49%  
398 3% 45%  
399 5% 42% Last Result
400 7% 38%  
401 4% 31%  
402 3% 26%  
403 2% 23%  
404 3% 21%  
405 3% 18%  
406 2% 15%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.2% 9%  
410 0.8% 8%  
411 0.8% 7%  
412 0.8% 6%  
413 0.7% 5%  
414 0.7% 5%  
415 0.4% 4%  
416 0.3% 4%  
417 0.3% 3%  
418 0.3% 3%  
419 0.2% 3%  
420 0.2% 3%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.2% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.4%  
426 0.2% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0.1% 0.8%  
430 0.1% 0.7%  
431 0.3% 0.6%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.1% 99.6%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.1% 99.4%  
360 0.1% 99.3%  
361 0.2% 99.2%  
362 0.1% 98.9%  
363 0.1% 98.9%  
364 0.3% 98.8%  
365 0.2% 98.5%  
366 0.3% 98%  
367 0.2% 98%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.4% 97%  
370 0.4% 97%  
371 0.5% 97%  
372 0.9% 96%  
373 0.8% 95%  
374 1.0% 95%  
375 1.0% 94%  
376 2% 93%  
377 2% 91%  
378 1.4% 89%  
379 2% 88%  
380 3% 86%  
381 3% 83%  
382 3% 80%  
383 4% 77%  
384 4% 73%  
385 4% 70%  
386 5% 65%  
387 4% 60%  
388 3% 55%  
389 4% 52% Median
390 4% 48%  
391 6% 44%  
392 3% 38%  
393 5% 35%  
394 4% 30%  
395 4% 26%  
396 4% 21%  
397 2% 17%  
398 2% 15%  
399 2% 12%  
400 2% 10%  
401 2% 8%  
402 2% 7%  
403 1.0% 5%  
404 1.1% 4%  
405 0.9% 3%  
406 0.8% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.3% 1.2%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.2% 0.7%  
411 0.1% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.2% 99.7%  
321 0.2% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.4%  
323 0.3% 99.2%  
324 0.3% 98.9%  
325 0.3% 98.6%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 1.1% 97%  
329 1.5% 96%  
330 2% 95%  
331 1.5% 93%  
332 2% 91%  
333 2% 89%  
334 2% 87%  
335 3% 85%  
336 3% 82%  
337 2% 79%  
338 6% 77%  
339 5% 72%  
340 5% 66% Last Result
341 5% 61%  
342 5% 57%  
343 3% 52% Median
344 3% 48%  
345 4% 45%  
346 4% 41%  
347 4% 37%  
348 5% 33%  
349 3% 28%  
350 5% 25%  
351 3% 20%  
352 3% 17%  
353 2% 14%  
354 2% 12%  
355 1.0% 10% Majority
356 1.1% 9%  
357 1.0% 8%  
358 1.1% 7%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 0.8% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.2% 3%  
364 0.4% 3%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.1% 1.1%  
371 0.1% 1.0%  
372 0.2% 0.9%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.1% 99.2%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.1% 98.9%  
299 0.2% 98.9%  
300 0.1% 98.7%  
301 0.1% 98.6%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.4% 97%  
308 0.4% 97%  
309 0.3% 96%  
310 0.6% 96%  
311 0.6% 96%  
312 0.8% 95%  
313 1.1% 94%  
314 0.8% 93%  
315 2% 92%  
316 1.4% 91%  
317 2% 89%  
318 3% 87%  
319 2% 85%  
320 2% 82%  
321 3% 80%  
322 4% 77%  
323 4% 73%  
324 4% 68%  
325 4% 65%  
326 5% 61% Last Result
327 4% 56%  
328 6% 52% Median
329 4% 45%  
330 4% 42%  
331 4% 38%  
332 4% 34%  
333 5% 30%  
334 3% 25%  
335 3% 21%  
336 3% 18%  
337 3% 15%  
338 2% 13%  
339 2% 10%  
340 2% 8%  
341 2% 7%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 1.0% 4%  
344 0.8% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.3%  
348 0.2% 1.0%  
349 0.2% 0.8%  
350 0.2% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.4% 98.8%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0.9% 98%  
305 1.1% 97%  
306 1.0% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 2% 93%  
309 2% 92%  
310 2% 90%  
311 2% 88%  
312 2% 85%  
313 4% 83%  
314 4% 79%  
315 4% 74%  
316 5% 70%  
317 3% 65%  
318 6% 62%  
319 4% 56% Median
320 4% 52%  
321 3% 48%  
322 4% 45%  
323 5% 40%  
324 4% 35%  
325 4% 30%  
326 4% 27%  
327 3% 23%  
328 3% 20%  
329 3% 17%  
330 2% 14%  
331 1.4% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 2% 9%  
334 1.0% 7%  
335 1.0% 6%  
336 0.8% 5%  
337 0.9% 5%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.4% 3%  
341 0.3% 3%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.5%  
346 0.1% 1.2%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 0.8%  
350 0.1% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.0%  
275 0.2% 98.9%  
276 0.1% 98.7%  
277 0.1% 98.6%  
278 0.1% 98.5%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.2% 97%  
284 0.3% 97%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.5% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 0.8% 94%  
291 1.3% 94%  
292 1.1% 92%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 89%  
295 2% 87%  
296 2% 85%  
297 2% 83%  
298 4% 80%  
299 5% 76%  
300 3% 72% Last Result
301 4% 68%  
302 4% 64%  
303 6% 60%  
304 5% 54% Median
305 5% 49%  
306 3% 45%  
307 5% 41%  
308 5% 37%  
309 4% 32%  
310 3% 28%  
311 4% 25%  
312 4% 21%  
313 2% 18%  
314 3% 16%  
315 2% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 2% 8%  
318 1.1% 6%  
319 1.3% 5%  
320 0.9% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.4%  
325 0.3% 1.0%  
326 0.2% 0.7%  
327 0.2% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.3% 99.3%  
241 0.4% 98.9%  
242 0.5% 98.6%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 1.2% 98%  
245 0.8% 96%  
246 1.5% 96%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 3% 88%  
251 2% 85%  
252 3% 83%  
253 5% 80%  
254 4% 75%  
255 6% 71%  
256 4% 65%  
257 5% 61%  
258 5% 56% Median
259 4% 52%  
260 5% 47%  
261 3% 42%  
262 4% 38%  
263 6% 34%  
264 3% 29%  
265 2% 25%  
266 5% 23%  
267 3% 19%  
268 2% 15%  
269 2% 13%  
270 2% 11%  
271 1.3% 10%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.5% 7%  
274 0.6% 5%  
275 0.7% 5%  
276 0.6% 4%  
277 0.7% 3%  
278 0.3% 3%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.6% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.5%  
282 0.3% 1.2%  
283 0.1% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.8%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0% 0.6%  
287 0.2% 0.5%  
288 0.1% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.2%  
160 0.4% 98.8%  
161 1.0% 98%  
162 0.7% 97%  
163 1.4% 97%  
164 2% 95%  
165 2% 94%  
166 2% 92%  
167 2% 89%  
168 3% 87%  
169 4% 84%  
170 5% 80%  
171 4% 75%  
172 6% 70%  
173 5% 64%  
174 4% 59%  
175 5% 55% Median
176 5% 51%  
177 4% 45%  
178 7% 41%  
179 5% 34%  
180 4% 30%  
181 5% 25%  
182 2% 21%  
183 3% 18%  
184 3% 15%  
185 2% 12%  
186 2% 10%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 6%  
189 0.9% 5%  
190 0.8% 4%  
191 0.6% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 1.1%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.4%  
118 0.2% 99.4%  
119 0.1% 99.1%  
120 0.3% 99.0%  
121 0.3% 98.8%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0.1% 98%  
124 0.2% 98%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.2% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.1% 97%  
129 0.2% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0% 97%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0% 97%  
135 0% 97%  
136 0% 97%  
137 0% 97%  
138 0% 97%  
139 0% 97%  
140 0.1% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.2% 96%  
145 0.4% 96%  
146 0.5% 96%  
147 0.9% 95%  
148 0.8% 94%  
149 2% 93%  
150 1.5% 92%  
151 2% 90%  
152 2% 88%  
153 3% 86%  
154 5% 82%  
155 3% 78%  
156 5% 75%  
157 5% 70%  
158 5% 65%  
159 4% 59%  
160 7% 55% Median
161 5% 48%  
162 5% 43%  
163 5% 37%  
164 6% 33%  
165 3% 27%  
166 5% 24%  
167 3% 19%  
168 4% 16%  
169 2% 12%  
170 3% 10%  
171 2% 8%  
172 1.5% 6%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.8% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.4% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 0.8%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations