Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 29 January–1 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 216 207–226 204–228 202–230 197–235
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 126 119–135 117–136 115–139 111–143
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 101–124 97–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–92 70–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–66 53–68 52–69 49–72
Die Linke 69 55 51–62 50–63 47–66 46–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 56 50–62 49–63 48–65 46–68

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.2% 99.6%  
198 0.3% 99.4%  
199 0.3% 99.2%  
200 0.4% 98.9% Last Result
201 0.7% 98%  
202 1.3% 98%  
203 1.0% 97%  
204 1.2% 96%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 3% 91%  
208 2% 88%  
209 4% 85%  
210 4% 81%  
211 5% 77%  
212 4% 72%  
213 6% 68%  
214 5% 62%  
215 5% 57%  
216 4% 52% Median
217 6% 49%  
218 7% 42%  
219 4% 36%  
220 4% 32%  
221 4% 28%  
222 4% 23%  
223 3% 19%  
224 3% 17%  
225 3% 14%  
226 3% 11%  
227 2% 8%  
228 1.4% 6%  
229 1.2% 5%  
230 1.0% 3%  
231 0.5% 2%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 1.5%  
234 0.3% 1.0%  
235 0.3% 0.7%  
236 0.1% 0.5%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.5%  
113 0.6% 99.1%  
114 0.8% 98%  
115 1.0% 98%  
116 1.3% 97%  
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 94%  
119 4% 91%  
120 3% 87%  
121 4% 84%  
122 5% 80%  
123 6% 75%  
124 8% 69%  
125 6% 61%  
126 6% 55% Median
127 6% 49%  
128 5% 43%  
129 7% 38%  
130 6% 31%  
131 4% 25%  
132 4% 21%  
133 3% 17%  
134 3% 14%  
135 3% 10%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.1% 5%  
138 1.0% 4%  
139 0.8% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 1.4%  
142 0.4% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 0.5% 99.1%  
100 0.9% 98.6%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 2% 93%  
105 4% 91%  
106 4% 87%  
107 4% 83%  
108 6% 79%  
109 6% 74%  
110 7% 67%  
111 7% 60%  
112 6% 53% Median
113 6% 47%  
114 6% 41%  
115 6% 34%  
116 5% 28%  
117 5% 23%  
118 5% 18%  
119 3% 13%  
120 3% 10%  
121 2% 7%  
122 1.1% 5%  
123 1.4% 4%  
124 1.0% 3%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.4% 1.1%  
127 0.3% 0.8%  
128 0.2% 0.5%  
129 0.2% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 0.5% 99.0%  
72 1.0% 98.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 93%  
76 4% 91%  
77 5% 87%  
78 6% 82%  
79 6% 76%  
80 7% 69%  
81 7% 62%  
82 9% 55% Median
83 8% 47%  
84 6% 39%  
85 6% 33%  
86 7% 27%  
87 5% 19%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 11%  
90 2% 8%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.3% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.8% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 98.6%  
52 3% 98%  
53 2% 95%  
54 3% 93%  
55 6% 90%  
56 5% 84%  
57 10% 79%  
58 5% 70%  
59 11% 64%  
60 8% 53% Median
61 10% 46%  
62 7% 36%  
63 6% 29%  
64 8% 22%  
65 3% 14%  
66 4% 11%  
67 2% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.3%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 0.3% 96%  
49 0.1% 96%  
50 5% 96%  
51 10% 91%  
52 0.8% 81%  
53 0.5% 80%  
54 18% 79%  
55 16% 62% Median
56 0.6% 46%  
57 0.8% 45%  
58 19% 44%  
59 10% 26%  
60 0.2% 15%  
61 1.5% 15%  
62 8% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0% 3%  
65 0.5% 3%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
47 1.0% 99.0%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 4% 90%  
52 6% 85%  
53 8% 80%  
54 9% 72%  
55 8% 63%  
56 9% 55% Median
57 11% 46%  
58 8% 35%  
59 6% 27%  
60 5% 21%  
61 4% 16%  
62 5% 12%  
63 3% 7%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 511 100% 502–520 499–522 497–525 492–529
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 459 100% 449–468 446–471 444–474 439–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 444 100% 435–454 431–457 429–459 423–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 414 100% 404–424 401–427 398–430 394–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 399 100% 389–409 385–412 383–414 378–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 374–394 371–397 368–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 354 48% 344–364 341–368 339–370 334–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 333 0.3% 322–342 319–345 317–348 312–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 299 0% 288–309 286–312 283–314 278–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 295 0% 285–305 282–308 279–311 275–315
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 239 0% 229–249 226–251 224–254 219–258
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 163–181 161–184 159–185 155–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–177 157–180 155–182 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0% 99.9%  
489 0.1% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.8%  
491 0.1% 99.7%  
492 0.3% 99.6%  
493 0.3% 99.3%  
494 0.3% 99.0%  
495 0.5% 98.7%  
496 0.5% 98%  
497 1.1% 98%  
498 1.2% 97%  
499 1.4% 95%  
500 2% 94%  
501 2% 92%  
502 3% 90%  
503 3% 88%  
504 4% 85%  
505 3% 81%  
506 5% 77%  
507 4% 73%  
508 6% 68%  
509 6% 62%  
510 5% 56% Median
511 5% 51%  
512 5% 46%  
513 6% 41%  
514 4% 35%  
515 6% 32%  
516 4% 26%  
517 4% 22%  
518 3% 17%  
519 3% 14%  
520 3% 11%  
521 2% 9%  
522 2% 7%  
523 1.2% 5%  
524 1.0% 4%  
525 0.8% 3%  
526 0.6% 2%  
527 0.4% 1.3%  
528 0.3% 0.9%  
529 0.2% 0.6%  
530 0.1% 0.4%  
531 0.1% 0.3%  
532 0.1% 0.2%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.8%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.2% 99.7%  
439 0.2% 99.6%  
440 0.2% 99.3%  
441 0.3% 99.1%  
442 0.6% 98.8%  
443 0.6% 98%  
444 0.8% 98%  
445 1.3% 97%  
446 1.4% 96%  
447 1.3% 94%  
448 2% 93%  
449 3% 91%  
450 3% 88%  
451 3% 85%  
452 4% 82%  
453 3% 78%  
454 3% 75%  
455 6% 72%  
456 5% 66%  
457 5% 62%  
458 4% 57% Median
459 7% 53%  
460 5% 45%  
461 4% 40%  
462 4% 36%  
463 6% 32%  
464 5% 26%  
465 3% 21%  
466 3% 18%  
467 3% 15%  
468 2% 12%  
469 2% 10%  
470 2% 8%  
471 1.1% 6%  
472 0.8% 5%  
473 1.1% 4%  
474 1.1% 3%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.4% 1.4%  
477 0.4% 1.0%  
478 0.2% 0.6%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.2% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.5%  
425 0.2% 99.4%  
426 0.3% 99.2%  
427 0.3% 98.9%  
428 0.9% 98.6%  
429 0.8% 98%  
430 1.0% 97%  
431 1.4% 96%  
432 2% 94%  
433 1.3% 93%  
434 1.4% 91%  
435 2% 90%  
436 3% 88%  
437 4% 85%  
438 6% 81%  
439 4% 75%  
440 2% 71%  
441 4% 69%  
442 3% 65%  
443 5% 61%  
444 7% 57% Median
445 8% 50%  
446 3% 42%  
447 6% 39%  
448 3% 33%  
449 3% 30%  
450 5% 27%  
451 3% 21%  
452 3% 18%  
453 4% 14%  
454 3% 11%  
455 1.4% 8%  
456 0.9% 7%  
457 1.3% 6%  
458 0.7% 5%  
459 2% 4%  
460 0.9% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.4%  
462 0.2% 1.1%  
463 0.2% 0.8%  
464 0.1% 0.7%  
465 0.2% 0.5%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.2% 99.7%  
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.3% 99.4%  
396 0.4% 99.1%  
397 0.5% 98.7%  
398 0.7% 98%  
399 0.6% 97%  
400 1.0% 97%  
401 1.3% 96%  
402 1.5% 95%  
403 1.2% 93%  
404 3% 92%  
405 3% 89%  
406 2% 86%  
407 2% 84%  
408 5% 82%  
409 4% 77%  
410 4% 73%  
411 4% 69%  
412 6% 65%  
413 5% 59%  
414 5% 54% Median
415 5% 48%  
416 6% 44%  
417 4% 38%  
418 5% 34%  
419 4% 30%  
420 4% 26% Last Result
421 4% 22%  
422 3% 18%  
423 3% 15%  
424 3% 12%  
425 2% 9%  
426 1.4% 8%  
427 2% 6%  
428 1.0% 5%  
429 0.9% 4%  
430 0.9% 3%  
431 0.6% 2%  
432 0.3% 1.4%  
433 0.3% 1.1%  
434 0.3% 0.8%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.3%  
437 0.1% 0.2%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.1% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.4%  
380 0.3% 99.2%  
381 0.4% 98.9%  
382 0.8% 98%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 1.0% 97%  
385 1.0% 96%  
386 1.2% 95%  
387 2% 94%  
388 1.4% 92%  
389 3% 91%  
390 2% 88%  
391 4% 85%  
392 5% 82%  
393 3% 77%  
394 4% 73%  
395 4% 70%  
396 5% 65%  
397 4% 60%  
398 6% 57% Median
399 5% 51%  
400 7% 46%  
401 3% 40%  
402 5% 36%  
403 4% 31%  
404 4% 27%  
405 4% 23%  
406 3% 19%  
407 2% 16%  
408 3% 14%  
409 2% 11%  
410 2% 9%  
411 2% 7%  
412 1.2% 5%  
413 1.2% 4%  
414 0.7% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.2%  
418 0.3% 0.9%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.2% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.2% 99.7%  
364 0.3% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.2%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.6% 98.7%  
368 0.7% 98%  
369 0.7% 97%  
370 0.9% 97%  
371 1.2% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 2% 93%  
374 3% 91%  
375 3% 88%  
376 2% 85%  
377 4% 83%  
378 4% 80%  
379 4% 76%  
380 4% 72%  
381 4% 69%  
382 3% 64%  
383 6% 61%  
384 8% 55% Median
385 5% 47%  
386 5% 43%  
387 4% 38%  
388 4% 34%  
389 4% 30%  
390 3% 26%  
391 3% 22%  
392 3% 19%  
393 4% 16%  
394 2% 12%  
395 2% 10%  
396 2% 8%  
397 1.5% 6%  
398 0.9% 5%  
399 0.9% 4% Last Result
400 0.6% 3%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.6% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.0%  
404 0.2% 0.7%  
405 0.2% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.3% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.2%  
336 0.4% 99.0%  
337 0.4% 98.6%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 1.0% 97% Last Result
341 2% 96%  
342 2% 94%  
343 1.0% 92%  
344 2% 91%  
345 2% 89%  
346 4% 87%  
347 3% 83%  
348 6% 81%  
349 3% 75%  
350 3% 72%  
351 4% 69%  
352 5% 65%  
353 7% 60%  
354 4% 52% Median
355 5% 48% Majority
356 4% 43%  
357 4% 39%  
358 5% 35%  
359 5% 31%  
360 5% 26%  
361 3% 21%  
362 2% 18%  
363 3% 16%  
364 3% 13%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.2% 6%  
368 1.0% 5%  
369 0.8% 4%  
370 1.0% 3%  
371 0.7% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.1%  
374 0.3% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.3% 99.5%  
313 0.3% 99.3%  
314 0.3% 99.0%  
315 0.4% 98.7%  
316 0.6% 98%  
317 1.2% 98%  
318 1.2% 96%  
319 1.2% 95%  
320 1.3% 94%  
321 1.4% 93%  
322 3% 91%  
323 4% 88%  
324 3% 85%  
325 2% 81%  
326 3% 79% Last Result
327 4% 77%  
328 4% 73%  
329 5% 68%  
330 5% 63%  
331 4% 58%  
332 3% 54% Median
333 6% 50%  
334 6% 45%  
335 7% 39%  
336 4% 32%  
337 3% 28%  
338 4% 25%  
339 3% 21%  
340 4% 18%  
341 3% 14%  
342 1.5% 11%  
343 2% 10%  
344 2% 8%  
345 1.4% 6%  
346 1.3% 5%  
347 0.8% 4%  
348 0.6% 3%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.4% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.5% 99.3%  
281 0.3% 98.7%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.6% 98%  
284 1.0% 97%  
285 1.1% 96%  
286 1.4% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 3% 92%  
289 2% 90%  
290 4% 88%  
291 2% 84%  
292 4% 82%  
293 3% 78%  
294 3% 75%  
295 6% 71%  
296 4% 65%  
297 4% 62%  
298 6% 57% Median
299 6% 51%  
300 5% 45% Last Result
301 3% 40%  
302 5% 37%  
303 5% 32%  
304 3% 26%  
305 5% 23%  
306 3% 19%  
307 2% 16%  
308 2% 14%  
309 3% 11%  
310 2% 8%  
311 1.0% 7%  
312 1.1% 6%  
313 2% 5%  
314 0.8% 3%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.5% 1.4%  
318 0.2% 0.9%  
319 0.2% 0.7%  
320 0.2% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.3% 99.5%  
276 0.3% 99.2%  
277 0.3% 98.9%  
278 0.6% 98.6%  
279 0.9% 98%  
280 0.9% 97%  
281 1.0% 96%  
282 2% 95%  
283 1.4% 94%  
284 2% 92%  
285 3% 91%  
286 3% 88%  
287 3% 85%  
288 4% 82%  
289 4% 78% Last Result
290 4% 74%  
291 5% 70%  
292 4% 66%  
293 6% 62% Median
294 5% 56%  
295 5% 52%  
296 5% 46%  
297 6% 41%  
298 4% 35%  
299 4% 31%  
300 4% 27%  
301 5% 23%  
302 2% 18%  
303 2% 16%  
304 3% 14%  
305 3% 11%  
306 1.2% 8%  
307 1.5% 7%  
308 1.3% 5%  
309 1.0% 4%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.7% 3%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.4% 1.3%  
314 0.3% 0.9%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.2% 99.6%  
220 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
221 0.4% 99.2%  
222 0.4% 98.9%  
223 0.7% 98%  
224 1.2% 98%  
225 0.8% 97%  
226 0.8% 96%  
227 2% 95%  
228 2% 93%  
229 2% 91%  
230 3% 89%  
231 4% 87%  
232 3% 83%  
233 5% 80%  
234 5% 75%  
235 4% 70%  
236 6% 66%  
237 4% 61%  
238 6% 57% Median
239 6% 52%  
240 5% 46%  
241 5% 41%  
242 5% 36%  
243 5% 30%  
244 3% 25%  
245 3% 22%  
246 4% 18%  
247 3% 15%  
248 1.2% 12%  
249 2% 10%  
250 2% 8%  
251 1.2% 6%  
252 0.8% 4%  
253 1.1% 4%  
254 0.5% 3%  
255 0.5% 2%  
256 0.4% 1.5%  
257 0.3% 1.0%  
258 0.2% 0.7%  
259 0.1% 0.5%  
260 0.1% 0.4%  
261 0.1% 0.2%  
262 0.1% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.5%  
156 0.5% 99.3%  
157 0.6% 98.8%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 1.0% 98%  
160 1.0% 97%  
161 2% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 87%  
166 4% 84%  
167 4% 80%  
168 5% 75%  
169 5% 71%  
170 6% 66%  
171 8% 60%  
172 5% 52% Median
173 6% 48%  
174 5% 42%  
175 6% 37%  
176 3% 31%  
177 6% 27%  
178 3% 21%  
179 4% 18%  
180 3% 14%  
181 2% 11%  
182 2% 9%  
183 2% 7%  
184 1.4% 5%  
185 1.3% 4%  
186 0.7% 2%  
187 0.5% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.3%  
189 0.4% 1.0%  
190 0.2% 0.6%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.3% 99.6%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.6% 99.0%  
154 0.5% 98%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.3% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 2% 90%  
161 3% 87%  
162 3% 84%  
163 5% 81%  
164 6% 76%  
165 5% 69%  
166 4% 64%  
167 7% 60% Median
168 5% 53%  
169 7% 48%  
170 5% 41%  
171 6% 36%  
172 4% 30%  
173 4% 26%  
174 5% 22%  
175 3% 18%  
176 4% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 9%  
179 1.4% 6%  
180 1.3% 5%  
181 1.2% 4%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.2%  
185 0.2% 0.8%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations