Opinion Poll by YouGov, 29 January–1 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.3% 26.7–31.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 209–228 206–230 204–233 200–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 126–142 124–145 122–146 118–151
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 104–119 102–121 100–124 97–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 67–83 65–85 63–88
Die Linke 69 67 61–73 60–75 58–77 55–80
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 47–58 46–60 44–61 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–56 44–57 43–59 40–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
201 0.5% 99.2%  
202 0.3% 98.8%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 0.8% 98%  
205 1.3% 97%  
206 1.1% 96%  
207 2% 94%  
208 2% 92%  
209 3% 90%  
210 2% 87%  
211 3% 85%  
212 6% 82%  
213 3% 76%  
214 5% 73%  
215 3% 68%  
216 7% 65%  
217 6% 58%  
218 4% 52% Median
219 5% 48%  
220 5% 43%  
221 7% 38%  
222 3% 31%  
223 5% 29%  
224 3% 23%  
225 4% 20%  
226 3% 16%  
227 3% 13%  
228 2% 11%  
229 2% 8%  
230 2% 7%  
231 1.0% 5%  
232 1.2% 4%  
233 0.5% 3%  
234 0.6% 2%  
235 0.5% 2%  
236 0.3% 1.1%  
237 0.3% 0.7%  
238 0.1% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.4%  
120 0.5% 99.1%  
121 0.7% 98.6%  
122 1.0% 98%  
123 1.3% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 1.5% 93%  
126 2% 92%  
127 5% 90%  
128 4% 85%  
129 4% 81%  
130 6% 77%  
131 5% 71%  
132 7% 66%  
133 6% 60%  
134 5% 53% Median
135 6% 48%  
136 8% 42%  
137 6% 35%  
138 4% 29%  
139 5% 25%  
140 4% 20%  
141 3% 15%  
142 4% 13%  
143 2% 9%  
144 2% 7%  
145 2% 5%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 0.6% 2%  
148 0.6% 2%  
149 0.3% 1.2%  
150 0.2% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.6%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.3%  
99 0.7% 99.1%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 0.9% 97%  
102 3% 97%  
103 1.1% 94%  
104 4% 93%  
105 3% 89%  
106 4% 87%  
107 6% 83%  
108 2% 76%  
109 9% 74%  
110 4% 65%  
111 11% 61%  
112 6% 51% Median
113 4% 45%  
114 11% 41%  
115 3% 30%  
116 8% 27%  
117 3% 20%  
118 3% 16%  
119 5% 13%  
120 1.2% 9%  
121 3% 7%  
122 0.6% 5%  
123 1.5% 4%  
124 0.8% 3%  
125 0.4% 2%  
126 0.6% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.7%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 1.1% 98.5%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 90%  
70 5% 86%  
71 7% 81%  
72 6% 74%  
73 8% 68%  
74 8% 59%  
75 8% 52% Median
76 9% 43%  
77 6% 35%  
78 6% 29%  
79 6% 23%  
80 4% 17%  
81 4% 13%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.0% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 0.7% 98.9%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 6% 86%  
64 7% 80%  
65 7% 73%  
66 9% 65%  
67 10% 56% Median
68 8% 47%  
69 8% 39% Last Result
70 6% 31%  
71 6% 25%  
72 5% 19%  
73 4% 14%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.0% 3%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.3%  
44 1.1% 98.5%  
45 2% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 5% 92%  
48 5% 87%  
49 7% 82%  
50 11% 75%  
51 9% 64%  
52 7% 55% Median
53 11% 48%  
54 9% 37%  
55 6% 28%  
56 6% 22%  
57 5% 16%  
58 3% 10%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.5% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.4%  
42 1.2% 98.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 5% 89% Last Result
47 7% 83%  
48 9% 77%  
49 11% 68%  
50 9% 57% Median
51 10% 48%  
52 9% 38%  
53 6% 29%  
54 5% 23%  
55 6% 18%  
56 4% 12%  
57 3% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.0% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 515 100% 506–524 503–526 500–528 496–533
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 445–465 442–467 440–469 435–475
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 423–443 420–446 417–448 412–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 392–413 389–416 387–418 382–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 396 100% 386–406 383–409 380–411 375–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.9% 370–391 368–394 365–396 360–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 8% 333–354 330–357 328–359 323–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 321 0% 311–331 308–334 305–337 300–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0% 303–323 300–326 298–329 292–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 288–309 285–311 283–314 277–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 236–256 233–258 231–261 226–266
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 170–188 168–191 166–193 161–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 155–173 153–175 151–177 147–182

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0.1% 99.9%  
494 0.1% 99.8%  
495 0.2% 99.7%  
496 0.2% 99.6%  
497 0.4% 99.4%  
498 0.3% 99.0%  
499 0.5% 98.7%  
500 1.0% 98%  
501 0.8% 97%  
502 1.1% 96%  
503 2% 95%  
504 2% 94%  
505 2% 92%  
506 3% 90%  
507 3% 87%  
508 4% 84%  
509 4% 81%  
510 5% 76%  
511 4% 72%  
512 5% 67%  
513 7% 63%  
514 5% 56% Median
515 6% 51%  
516 4% 45%  
517 7% 41%  
518 4% 34%  
519 5% 30%  
520 5% 25%  
521 4% 20%  
522 3% 17%  
523 4% 14%  
524 2% 10%  
525 1.3% 8%  
526 2% 7%  
527 1.2% 4%  
528 1.0% 3%  
529 0.7% 2%  
530 0.6% 2%  
531 0.3% 1.1%  
532 0.3% 0.9%  
533 0.2% 0.5%  
534 0.1% 0.3%  
535 0.1% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.1% 99.5%  
436 0.2% 99.4%  
437 0.4% 99.2%  
438 0.5% 98.9%  
439 0.7% 98%  
440 0.9% 98%  
441 1.1% 97%  
442 1.3% 96%  
443 1.4% 94%  
444 1.5% 93%  
445 3% 91%  
446 2% 89%  
447 3% 86%  
448 4% 83%  
449 4% 79%  
450 4% 75%  
451 4% 71%  
452 3% 67%  
453 4% 64%  
454 4% 60% Median
455 6% 56%  
456 8% 50%  
457 7% 42%  
458 7% 36%  
459 4% 29%  
460 2% 25%  
461 2% 23%  
462 2% 20%  
463 3% 18%  
464 3% 15%  
465 3% 12%  
466 3% 9%  
467 2% 6%  
468 1.2% 4%  
469 0.6% 3%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.5% 2%  
472 0.3% 2%  
473 0.4% 1.3%  
474 0.3% 0.9%  
475 0.2% 0.6%  
476 0.1% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.2% 99.6%  
413 0.2% 99.5%  
414 0.3% 99.3%  
415 0.4% 98.9%  
416 0.5% 98.5%  
417 0.6% 98%  
418 0.9% 97%  
419 1.1% 96%  
420 1.4% 95%  
421 2% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 2% 90%  
424 2% 88%  
425 4% 85%  
426 3% 82%  
427 4% 79%  
428 4% 75%  
429 4% 71%  
430 6% 67%  
431 6% 61%  
432 4% 55% Median
433 5% 51%  
434 4% 46%  
435 5% 42%  
436 5% 37%  
437 5% 32%  
438 5% 27%  
439 3% 23%  
440 3% 20%  
441 3% 16%  
442 3% 13%  
443 2% 10%  
444 1.3% 8%  
445 1.3% 7%  
446 2% 5%  
447 0.7% 4%  
448 0.7% 3%  
449 0.6% 2%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.5% 1.2%  
452 0.2% 0.8%  
453 0.2% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0.3% 99.2%  
385 0.4% 98.9%  
386 0.7% 98%  
387 0.8% 98%  
388 0.8% 97%  
389 1.2% 96%  
390 0.9% 95%  
391 2% 94%  
392 3% 92%  
393 3% 89%  
394 4% 87%  
395 2% 83%  
396 2% 81%  
397 3% 78%  
398 4% 76%  
399 5% 71%  
400 4% 66%  
401 5% 62%  
402 4% 57% Median
403 4% 53%  
404 7% 49%  
405 6% 43%  
406 6% 37%  
407 5% 31%  
408 4% 26%  
409 3% 22%  
410 3% 19%  
411 2% 16%  
412 2% 14%  
413 3% 11%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.5% 7%  
416 2% 6%  
417 1.1% 4%  
418 0.7% 3%  
419 0.5% 2%  
420 0.5% 2%  
421 0.4% 1.2%  
422 0.2% 0.8%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.3% 99.4%  
377 0.2% 99.2%  
378 0.6% 99.0%  
379 0.7% 98%  
380 0.4% 98%  
381 1.3% 97%  
382 0.8% 96%  
383 0.9% 95%  
384 2% 94%  
385 1.4% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 3% 88%  
388 4% 85%  
389 4% 81%  
390 4% 77%  
391 4% 73%  
392 3% 69%  
393 4% 66%  
394 7% 61%  
395 3% 54% Median
396 7% 52%  
397 5% 45%  
398 3% 40%  
399 6% 38%  
400 5% 32%  
401 2% 27%  
402 5% 25%  
403 5% 20%  
404 3% 15%  
405 2% 13%  
406 2% 10%  
407 2% 9%  
408 1.5% 7%  
409 1.4% 5%  
410 0.7% 4%  
411 1.0% 3%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.5% 1.4%  
415 0.3% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.2% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.4% 99.2%  
363 0.6% 98.8%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.9% 98%  
366 0.6% 97%  
367 1.0% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 2% 93%  
370 3% 92%  
371 3% 89%  
372 2% 86%  
373 3% 84%  
374 2% 81%  
375 5% 79%  
376 6% 74%  
377 4% 68%  
378 3% 64%  
379 5% 60%  
380 5% 56% Median
381 7% 51%  
382 6% 44%  
383 4% 38%  
384 3% 34%  
385 4% 31%  
386 4% 27%  
387 4% 24%  
388 5% 20%  
389 3% 15%  
390 1.3% 12%  
391 2% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 2% 7%  
394 1.4% 5%  
395 1.1% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.4% 1.4% Last Result
400 0.5% 1.0%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.2% 99.6%  
324 0.3% 99.4%  
325 0.2% 99.1%  
326 0.6% 98.9%  
327 0.7% 98%  
328 0.8% 98%  
329 0.8% 97%  
330 1.2% 96%  
331 2% 95%  
332 1.5% 93%  
333 2% 92%  
334 3% 89%  
335 3% 87%  
336 3% 83%  
337 4% 80%  
338 4% 76%  
339 4% 72%  
340 5% 68% Last Result
341 5% 63%  
342 4% 58%  
343 4% 54% Median
344 4% 50%  
345 4% 45%  
346 5% 41%  
347 5% 36%  
348 3% 31%  
349 5% 27%  
350 3% 23%  
351 3% 19%  
352 3% 16%  
353 3% 13%  
354 2% 10%  
355 2% 8% Majority
356 0.8% 6%  
357 1.3% 6%  
358 1.2% 4%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.7% 2%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.4% 1.4%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.5%  
302 0.3% 99.2%  
303 0.3% 98.9%  
304 0.6% 98.6%  
305 0.9% 98%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 1.1% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 2% 94%  
310 2% 92%  
311 2% 90%  
312 3% 88%  
313 3% 85%  
314 3% 82%  
315 4% 79%  
316 4% 75%  
317 3% 70%  
318 5% 67%  
319 5% 62%  
320 5% 57% Median
321 6% 52%  
322 4% 46%  
323 5% 42%  
324 5% 36%  
325 3% 31%  
326 4% 28% Last Result
327 3% 24%  
328 4% 21%  
329 3% 17%  
330 1.4% 14%  
331 3% 12%  
332 2% 9%  
333 1.3% 7%  
334 2% 6%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.8% 3%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.5% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.3% 99.4%  
295 0.5% 99.1%  
296 0.4% 98.6%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 1.0% 98%  
299 0.7% 97%  
300 1.4% 96%  
301 1.5% 95%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 91%  
304 2% 90%  
305 3% 87%  
306 5% 85%  
307 5% 80%  
308 2% 75%  
309 5% 73%  
310 6% 68%  
311 3% 62%  
312 5% 60%  
313 7% 55% Median
314 3% 48%  
315 7% 46%  
316 4% 39%  
317 3% 34%  
318 4% 31%  
319 4% 27%  
320 4% 23%  
321 4% 19%  
322 3% 15%  
323 2% 12%  
324 1.4% 10%  
325 2% 8%  
326 0.9% 6%  
327 0.8% 5%  
328 1.3% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.7% 2%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.3% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.3%  
280 0.5% 99.1%  
281 0.3% 98.6%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 0.9% 97%  
285 1.3% 96%  
286 2% 95%  
287 2% 93%  
288 2% 91%  
289 4% 89%  
290 2% 86%  
291 4% 84%  
292 4% 79%  
293 3% 76%  
294 3% 73%  
295 5% 70%  
296 4% 65%  
297 6% 61%  
298 5% 55% Median
299 6% 50%  
300 7% 44% Last Result
301 4% 37%  
302 5% 33%  
303 4% 28%  
304 3% 24%  
305 3% 21%  
306 3% 18%  
307 2% 15%  
308 2% 13%  
309 2% 10%  
310 2% 8%  
311 2% 6%  
312 0.7% 4%  
313 1.1% 4%  
314 0.6% 3%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.4% 1.4%  
317 0.3% 1.1%  
318 0.2% 0.8%  
319 0.2% 0.6%  
320 0.2% 0.5%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.7%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.4% 99.3%  
229 0.5% 98.9%  
230 0.6% 98%  
231 0.9% 98%  
232 1.0% 97%  
233 1.2% 96%  
234 1.4% 95%  
235 2% 93%  
236 2% 91%  
237 3% 89%  
238 3% 87%  
239 3% 84%  
240 3% 81%  
241 5% 78%  
242 6% 73%  
243 4% 68%  
244 6% 64%  
245 5% 58%  
246 7% 54% Median
247 6% 47%  
248 5% 41%  
249 4% 36%  
250 4% 32%  
251 4% 28%  
252 4% 23%  
253 4% 20%  
254 3% 16%  
255 2% 13%  
256 3% 12%  
257 2% 9%  
258 2% 7%  
259 1.0% 5%  
260 0.9% 4%  
261 0.9% 3%  
262 0.5% 2%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.1%  
265 0.2% 0.8%  
266 0.2% 0.6%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.3% 99.4%  
163 0.4% 99.2%  
164 0.5% 98.8%  
165 0.8% 98%  
166 1.0% 98%  
167 1.1% 97%  
168 1.4% 96%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 3% 90%  
172 4% 87%  
173 2% 83%  
174 5% 80%  
175 6% 75%  
176 5% 70%  
177 6% 65%  
178 7% 59%  
179 4% 52% Median
180 7% 48%  
181 4% 41%  
182 5% 37%  
183 5% 32%  
184 3% 26%  
185 5% 24%  
186 4% 19%  
187 3% 15%  
188 3% 12%  
189 2% 9%  
190 2% 7%  
191 2% 6%  
192 0.6% 4%  
193 1.1% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.4%  
196 0.3% 1.0%  
197 0.2% 0.7%  
198 0.1% 0.5%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0.1% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.3% 99.6%  
148 0.3% 99.3%  
149 0.4% 99.0%  
150 0.7% 98.6%  
151 1.2% 98%  
152 1.1% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 90%  
157 2% 87%  
158 4% 84%  
159 4% 80%  
160 5% 76%  
161 6% 71%  
162 5% 65%  
163 7% 60%  
164 6% 53% Median
165 5% 47%  
166 6% 42%  
167 5% 36%  
168 5% 30%  
169 4% 25%  
170 4% 22%  
171 4% 17%  
172 3% 14%  
173 3% 11%  
174 2% 8%  
175 1.3% 6%  
176 1.1% 5%  
177 1.2% 4%  
178 0.7% 2%  
179 0.4% 2%  
180 0.3% 1.3%  
181 0.3% 1.0%  
182 0.2% 0.6%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations