Opinion Poll by Kantar, 28 January–3 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.7–30.8% 27.3–31.3% 26.9–31.7% 26.2–32.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.3–20.8% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 209–232 205–235 202–238 197–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 133–153 130–156 128–159 124–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–130 108–132 106–135 102–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 61–75 59–78 57–80 54–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–60 45–62 43–64 41–67
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–58 43–60 42–61 39–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.7%  
197 0.2% 99.6%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.2% 99.2%  
200 0.3% 99.0% Last Result
201 0.5% 98.7%  
202 0.7% 98%  
203 0.6% 97%  
204 0.8% 97%  
205 1.2% 96%  
206 1.3% 95%  
207 2% 94%  
208 2% 92%  
209 2% 90%  
210 2% 88%  
211 3% 86%  
212 3% 83%  
213 2% 80%  
214 3% 77%  
215 4% 74%  
216 3% 70%  
217 5% 66%  
218 4% 62%  
219 5% 58%  
220 5% 53% Median
221 4% 47%  
222 3% 43%  
223 4% 40%  
224 4% 35%  
225 4% 32%  
226 3% 28%  
227 3% 25%  
228 3% 22%  
229 3% 18%  
230 2% 15%  
231 3% 13%  
232 2% 11%  
233 1.4% 8%  
234 1.2% 7%  
235 1.2% 6%  
236 0.8% 4%  
237 0.8% 4%  
238 0.7% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.4% 2%  
241 0.4% 1.3%  
242 0.2% 0.9%  
243 0.2% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.5% 99.0%  
127 0.6% 98.5%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 1.2% 97%  
130 1.4% 96%  
131 1.4% 95%  
132 2% 93%  
133 3% 91%  
134 3% 89%  
135 3% 86%  
136 3% 83%  
137 4% 80%  
138 5% 76%  
139 4% 71%  
140 6% 67%  
141 5% 61%  
142 5% 56%  
143 4% 51% Median
144 5% 47%  
145 3% 41%  
146 5% 38%  
147 5% 33%  
148 3% 28%  
149 4% 25%  
150 5% 21%  
151 2% 16%  
152 2% 13%  
153 3% 11%  
154 1.2% 8%  
155 2% 7%  
156 1.3% 6%  
157 0.9% 4%  
158 0.7% 3%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.4% 2%  
161 0.5% 1.5%  
162 0.3% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.3%  
105 0.9% 98.9%  
106 0.6% 98%  
107 0.6% 97%  
108 2% 97%  
109 2% 95%  
110 1.4% 93%  
111 2% 92%  
112 4% 90%  
113 3% 86%  
114 2% 83%  
115 4% 81%  
116 6% 77%  
117 5% 71%  
118 3% 66%  
119 5% 63%  
120 9% 58% Median
121 4% 48%  
122 4% 44%  
123 7% 40%  
124 6% 33%  
125 3% 27%  
126 3% 24%  
127 4% 21%  
128 4% 17%  
129 2% 13%  
130 2% 12%  
131 4% 10%  
132 1.2% 6%  
133 0.6% 5%  
134 1.1% 4%  
135 1.2% 3%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.4% 1.3%  
139 0.4% 0.9%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 0.5% 98.9%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 1.2% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91%  
62 4% 88%  
63 6% 84%  
64 7% 78%  
65 6% 71%  
66 7% 65%  
67 6% 58%  
68 7% 52% Median
69 6% 45%  
70 6% 39%  
71 6% 32%  
72 4% 26%  
73 6% 22%  
74 4% 17%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 1.1% 4%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.2%  
43 1.2% 98.6%  
44 1.4% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 4% 92%  
48 5% 88%  
49 5% 83%  
50 8% 78%  
51 10% 70%  
52 6% 60%  
53 7% 54% Median
54 10% 47%  
55 7% 37%  
56 4% 30%  
57 6% 26%  
58 6% 21%  
59 4% 15%  
60 2% 11%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.0% 4%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.4% 99.2%  
43 1.3% 98.8%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 4% 91%  
48 5% 87%  
49 8% 82%  
50 6% 74%  
51 8% 68%  
52 6% 61%  
53 8% 55% Median
54 12% 48%  
55 7% 36%  
56 4% 29%  
57 5% 25%  
58 4% 20%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 7%  
62 1.5% 5%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.3% 99.6%  
40 0.7% 99.3%  
41 1.0% 98.6%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 3% 94%  
45 4% 91%  
46 6% 87% Last Result
47 6% 81%  
48 7% 75%  
49 8% 68%  
50 8% 60%  
51 8% 52% Median
52 6% 44%  
53 9% 38%  
54 5% 30%  
55 6% 24%  
56 5% 18%  
57 3% 13%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 535 100% 524–545 521–548 518–551 513–556
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 468 100% 454–479 451–483 449–485 443–490
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 445 100% 433–457 429–460 427–463 420–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 414 100% 401–428 398–431 396–433 390–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 380–405 377–408 373–411 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 392 100% 379–404 376–407 373–411 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 6% 327–352 323–355 320–358 314–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0.1% 312–337 308–340 305–343 299–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 304–329 301–332 298–336 292–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 304–329 301–333 298–336 292–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 251–276 248–280 246–282 240–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 163–185 160–188 158–191 153–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 163–184 160–187 157–191 152–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 99.9%  
508 0% 99.9%  
509 0% 99.9%  
510 0.1% 99.8%  
511 0.1% 99.8%  
512 0.1% 99.7%  
513 0.1% 99.5%  
514 0.3% 99.4%  
515 0.4% 99.1%  
516 0.3% 98.7%  
517 0.8% 98%  
518 0.7% 98%  
519 0.6% 97%  
520 1.3% 96%  
521 1.4% 95%  
522 1.4% 94%  
523 2% 92%  
524 2% 91%  
525 2% 89%  
526 3% 86%  
527 3% 84%  
528 3% 81%  
529 4% 78%  
530 4% 74%  
531 4% 70%  
532 3% 66%  
533 5% 63%  
534 6% 58% Median
535 6% 52%  
536 4% 46%  
537 4% 42%  
538 4% 38%  
539 5% 34%  
540 5% 29%  
541 3% 24%  
542 4% 21%  
543 2% 17%  
544 2% 14%  
545 3% 12%  
546 2% 10%  
547 2% 7%  
548 1.2% 6%  
549 1.0% 5%  
550 0.8% 4%  
551 0.6% 3%  
552 0.7% 2%  
553 0.5% 2%  
554 0.2% 1.1%  
555 0.3% 0.9%  
556 0.2% 0.6%  
557 0.1% 0.4%  
558 0.1% 0.3%  
559 0.1% 0.3%  
560 0% 0.2%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0.1%  
576 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.9%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.1% 99.7%  
443 0.1% 99.6%  
444 0.1% 99.5%  
445 0.2% 99.4%  
446 0.3% 99.2%  
447 0.3% 98.9%  
448 0.7% 98.6%  
449 0.7% 98%  
450 1.1% 97%  
451 1.3% 96%  
452 2% 95%  
453 1.4% 93%  
454 2% 91%  
455 2% 89%  
456 1.5% 87%  
457 2% 86%  
458 1.4% 84%  
459 2% 82%  
460 2% 81%  
461 2% 79%  
462 3% 78%  
463 3% 75%  
464 5% 72%  
465 3% 67%  
466 5% 64%  
467 8% 58% Median
468 5% 50%  
469 7% 45%  
470 4% 38%  
471 5% 34%  
472 5% 29%  
473 3% 25%  
474 2% 22%  
475 2% 20%  
476 2% 18%  
477 2% 16%  
478 2% 14%  
479 2% 12%  
480 2% 10%  
481 2% 8%  
482 1.4% 6%  
483 1.5% 5%  
484 0.8% 4%  
485 0.9% 3%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.3% 1.3%  
488 0.3% 1.0%  
489 0.2% 0.7%  
490 0.1% 0.6%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.5%  
422 0.2% 99.3%  
423 0.3% 99.1%  
424 0.5% 98.8%  
425 0.4% 98%  
426 0.4% 98%  
427 0.9% 98%  
428 0.9% 97%  
429 0.9% 96%  
430 1.0% 95%  
431 1.2% 94%  
432 2% 93%  
433 2% 91%  
434 2% 89%  
435 3% 87%  
436 3% 85%  
437 3% 82%  
438 3% 79%  
439 3% 76%  
440 5% 73%  
441 3% 68%  
442 4% 64%  
443 3% 60%  
444 5% 57% Median
445 5% 52%  
446 4% 48%  
447 5% 43%  
448 3% 39%  
449 5% 36%  
450 3% 31%  
451 3% 29%  
452 4% 25%  
453 3% 22%  
454 2% 18%  
455 3% 16%  
456 2% 13%  
457 2% 11%  
458 2% 9%  
459 2% 7%  
460 0.8% 6%  
461 1.2% 5%  
462 0.6% 4%  
463 0.7% 3%  
464 0.6% 2%  
465 0.4% 2%  
466 0.4% 1.4%  
467 0.3% 1.0%  
468 0.2% 0.8%  
469 0.1% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.1% 99.6%  
390 0.1% 99.5%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.2% 99.2%  
393 0.3% 99.0%  
394 0.4% 98.7%  
395 0.8% 98%  
396 0.5% 98%  
397 2% 97%  
398 1.0% 95%  
399 2% 94%  
400 2% 92%  
401 2% 91%  
402 2% 89%  
403 2% 87%  
404 1.4% 85%  
405 2% 84%  
406 2% 82%  
407 2% 80%  
408 2% 78%  
409 4% 76%  
410 3% 72%  
411 4% 69%  
412 6% 65%  
413 5% 59%  
414 6% 54% Median
415 5% 47%  
416 6% 42%  
417 4% 37%  
418 5% 33%  
419 3% 28%  
420 3% 25%  
421 2% 22%  
422 1.4% 19%  
423 2% 18%  
424 1.4% 16%  
425 2% 15%  
426 2% 13%  
427 2% 12%  
428 2% 10%  
429 2% 8%  
430 2% 7%  
431 1.4% 5%  
432 1.1% 4%  
433 0.8% 3%  
434 0.6% 2%  
435 0.3% 1.3%  
436 0.3% 1.0%  
437 0.1% 0.7%  
438 0.1% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.5%  
368 0.1% 99.4%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.2% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.8%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.4% 97%  
375 0.6% 97%  
376 1.0% 96%  
377 1.1% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 1.3% 90%  
381 2% 89%  
382 3% 87%  
383 2% 84%  
384 3% 82%  
385 4% 79%  
386 2% 75%  
387 3% 73%  
388 6% 70%  
389 3% 65%  
390 4% 62%  
391 4% 58%  
392 4% 54% Median
393 4% 49%  
394 4% 46%  
395 5% 42%  
396 4% 37%  
397 4% 33%  
398 3% 29%  
399 3% 27%  
400 4% 24%  
401 3% 19%  
402 3% 17%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 2% 11%  
406 2% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 1.0% 6%  
409 0.9% 5%  
410 0.7% 4%  
411 0.6% 3%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.4% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.4% 98.9%  
371 0.3% 98%  
372 0.5% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 1.0% 97%  
375 0.9% 96%  
376 1.4% 95%  
377 1.2% 94%  
378 0.9% 93%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 90%  
381 2% 88%  
382 3% 86%  
383 3% 83%  
384 2% 80%  
385 2% 77%  
386 3% 75%  
387 4% 72%  
388 4% 67%  
389 5% 64%  
390 3% 59%  
391 4% 56% Median
392 4% 52%  
393 4% 48%  
394 5% 43%  
395 4% 38%  
396 3% 34%  
397 3% 31%  
398 2% 27%  
399 3% 25% Last Result
400 3% 22%  
401 4% 19%  
402 2% 15%  
403 2% 13%  
404 1.4% 11%  
405 1.1% 9%  
406 2% 8%  
407 2% 7%  
408 0.7% 5%  
409 0.8% 4%  
410 0.5% 3%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.5% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.3%  
317 0.5% 99.1%  
318 0.3% 98.6%  
319 0.4% 98%  
320 0.7% 98%  
321 0.6% 97%  
322 0.8% 97%  
323 0.9% 96%  
324 1.3% 95%  
325 2% 94%  
326 2% 92%  
327 1.4% 90%  
328 3% 89%  
329 3% 86%  
330 2% 83%  
331 2% 80%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 4% 72%  
335 3% 68%  
336 4% 65%  
337 5% 61%  
338 3% 56%  
339 4% 53% Median
340 4% 48% Last Result
341 5% 45%  
342 4% 40%  
343 3% 36%  
344 3% 33%  
345 4% 30%  
346 3% 25%  
347 3% 22%  
348 3% 19%  
349 3% 17%  
350 2% 13%  
351 1.5% 12%  
352 1.4% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 1.0% 7%  
355 1.0% 6% Majority
356 0.7% 5%  
357 0.9% 4%  
358 0.7% 3%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.5%  
362 0.2% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.0%  
303 0.3% 98.7%  
304 0.8% 98%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 0.4% 97%  
307 1.2% 97%  
308 0.8% 96%  
309 1.2% 95%  
310 2% 94%  
311 1.3% 92%  
312 2% 91%  
313 3% 89%  
314 2% 86%  
315 2% 84%  
316 3% 82%  
317 3% 79%  
318 3% 76%  
319 3% 73%  
320 5% 70%  
321 4% 65%  
322 3% 61%  
323 4% 58%  
324 4% 54% Median
325 4% 50%  
326 3% 46% Last Result
327 5% 43%  
328 4% 37%  
329 3% 33%  
330 3% 30%  
331 3% 27%  
332 4% 24%  
333 3% 20%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 9%  
339 1.1% 7%  
340 1.3% 6%  
341 0.9% 5%  
342 0.7% 4%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.4%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.4% 99.0%  
296 0.6% 98.6%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.6% 98%  
299 0.7% 97%  
300 0.9% 96%  
301 1.0% 95%  
302 2% 94%  
303 2% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 2% 89%  
306 2% 88%  
307 3% 86%  
308 3% 83%  
309 4% 81%  
310 3% 76%  
311 3% 73%  
312 4% 71%  
313 4% 67%  
314 5% 63%  
315 4% 58%  
316 4% 54% Median
317 4% 51%  
318 4% 46%  
319 4% 42%  
320 3% 38%  
321 6% 35%  
322 3% 30%  
323 2% 27%  
324 4% 25%  
325 3% 21%  
326 2% 18%  
327 3% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 1.3% 11%  
330 2% 10%  
331 2% 8%  
332 1.1% 6%  
333 1.0% 5%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.7% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.2% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.4%  
294 0.3% 99.2%  
295 0.4% 99.0%  
296 0.4% 98.6%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 1.0% 97%  
300 0.6% 96% Last Result
301 1.1% 95%  
302 0.9% 94%  
303 2% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 87%  
307 2% 85%  
308 3% 83%  
309 3% 80%  
310 4% 77%  
311 2% 73%  
312 4% 71%  
313 3% 67%  
314 4% 64%  
315 5% 60%  
316 3% 56% Median
317 5% 52%  
318 5% 47%  
319 5% 42%  
320 3% 38%  
321 5% 35%  
322 4% 30%  
323 2% 27%  
324 3% 25%  
325 2% 21%  
326 2% 19%  
327 3% 17%  
328 2% 14%  
329 2% 12%  
330 2% 9%  
331 0.8% 7%  
332 1.1% 6%  
333 1.1% 5%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.5%  
241 0.3% 99.2%  
242 0.1% 99.0%  
243 0.2% 98.8%  
244 0.4% 98.6%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.8% 98%  
247 0.9% 97%  
248 1.4% 96%  
249 1.4% 95%  
250 2% 93%  
251 2% 91%  
252 2% 89%  
253 1.2% 87%  
254 2% 86%  
255 3% 85%  
256 3% 82%  
257 4% 79%  
258 4% 75%  
259 5% 71%  
260 6% 66%  
261 6% 61%  
262 3% 55%  
263 3% 52% Median
264 2% 49%  
265 4% 47%  
266 3% 43%  
267 5% 40%  
268 4% 35%  
269 4% 32%  
270 6% 28%  
271 4% 22%  
272 3% 18%  
273 2% 16%  
274 1.4% 13%  
275 2% 12%  
276 1.2% 10%  
277 2% 9%  
278 1.1% 7%  
279 0.8% 6%  
280 1.1% 5%  
281 1.2% 4%  
282 1.0% 3%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.5%  
285 0.3% 1.3%  
286 0.2% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.8%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.4% 99.2%  
156 0.4% 98.8%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 1.1% 98%  
159 0.9% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 1.1% 94%  
162 2% 93%  
163 2% 91%  
164 2% 89%  
165 3% 87%  
166 3% 84%  
167 4% 81%  
168 4% 77%  
169 4% 74%  
170 3% 69%  
171 5% 66%  
172 4% 62%  
173 4% 57% Median
174 8% 53%  
175 6% 45%  
176 4% 39%  
177 6% 35%  
178 3% 29%  
179 4% 26%  
180 3% 22%  
181 3% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 11%  
186 2% 9%  
187 1.0% 7%  
188 2% 6%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 1.1% 4%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.4%  
194 0.3% 0.9%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.3%  
155 0.4% 99.0%  
156 0.7% 98.7%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 1.0% 97%  
160 1.3% 96%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 93%  
163 2% 90%  
164 2% 88%  
165 2% 86%  
166 3% 84%  
167 3% 81%  
168 3% 78%  
169 3% 74%  
170 5% 71%  
171 5% 66%  
172 4% 61%  
173 5% 57% Median
174 4% 53%  
175 6% 49%  
176 5% 43%  
177 6% 38%  
178 4% 33%  
179 4% 29%  
180 4% 25%  
181 4% 21%  
182 3% 17%  
183 3% 14%  
184 2% 11%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.3% 6%  
188 1.0% 5%  
189 0.7% 4%  
190 0.5% 3%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 1.1%  
195 0.2% 0.8%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations