Opinion Poll by Forsa, 2–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.8–31.4% 28.4–31.8% 28.1–32.1% 27.5–32.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 219–239 216–242 214–244 209–249
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 136–153 134–156 132–158 128–162
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 106–122 105–124 102–127 99–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–74
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–65
Die Linke 69 54 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 48–59 46–60 45–62 43–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.6%  
210 0.3% 99.5%  
211 0.4% 99.2%  
212 0.4% 98.8%  
213 0.6% 98%  
214 0.7% 98%  
215 0.8% 97%  
216 1.3% 96%  
217 2% 95%  
218 2% 93%  
219 3% 92%  
220 3% 89%  
221 3% 86%  
222 3% 83%  
223 5% 80%  
224 4% 75%  
225 4% 70%  
226 6% 66%  
227 4% 61%  
228 5% 57%  
229 7% 52% Median
230 4% 46%  
231 6% 42%  
232 4% 36%  
233 5% 32%  
234 4% 27%  
235 3% 24%  
236 4% 21%  
237 2% 16%  
238 3% 14%  
239 2% 11%  
240 2% 8%  
241 2% 7%  
242 1.2% 5%  
243 0.8% 4%  
244 0.8% 3%  
245 0.5% 2%  
246 0.5% 2%  
247 0.3% 1.2%  
248 0.3% 0.9%  
249 0.2% 0.6%  
250 0.1% 0.4%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0.1% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.6%  
129 0.4% 99.4%  
130 0.4% 99.0%  
131 0.6% 98.6%  
132 1.1% 98%  
133 1.3% 97%  
134 1.4% 96%  
135 2% 94%  
136 2% 92%  
137 3% 90%  
138 4% 86%  
139 4% 82%  
140 5% 78%  
141 5% 72%  
142 5% 68%  
143 6% 63%  
144 7% 57%  
145 6% 50% Median
146 6% 44%  
147 6% 38%  
148 4% 33%  
149 4% 28%  
150 4% 24%  
151 5% 20%  
152 4% 16%  
153 3% 12%  
154 2% 9%  
155 2% 7%  
156 1.2% 5%  
157 1.2% 4%  
158 1.1% 3%  
159 0.5% 2%  
160 0.4% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.6%  
163 0.2% 0.5%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.7%  
100 0.3% 99.4%  
101 0.8% 99.1%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 1.0% 97%  
104 1.1% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 3% 93%  
107 3% 90%  
108 4% 86%  
109 3% 82%  
110 4% 79%  
111 8% 75%  
112 8% 67%  
113 5% 59%  
114 5% 53% Median
115 6% 48%  
116 5% 42%  
117 8% 37%  
118 7% 29%  
119 3% 23%  
120 4% 20%  
121 4% 16%  
122 3% 12%  
123 3% 9%  
124 2% 6%  
125 1.2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.9% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.5% 1.2%  
130 0.2% 0.7%  
131 0.1% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 7% 85%  
58 7% 78%  
59 7% 71%  
60 8% 63%  
61 9% 56% Median
62 9% 46%  
63 8% 37%  
64 7% 29%  
65 4% 22%  
66 5% 18%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 1.0% 99.2%  
45 1.0% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 5% 95%  
48 3% 90%  
49 5% 87%  
50 8% 83%  
51 6% 75%  
52 9% 69%  
53 12% 59% Median
54 10% 48%  
55 5% 38%  
56 7% 33%  
57 8% 26%  
58 4% 18%  
59 5% 14%  
60 4% 9%  
61 1.2% 5%  
62 1.4% 4%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.7% 1.4%  
65 0.2% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.5% 99.1%  
45 1.4% 98.6%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 95%  
48 4% 91%  
49 5% 87%  
50 6% 82%  
51 10% 76%  
52 7% 66%  
53 8% 59%  
54 11% 51% Median
55 11% 40%  
56 5% 29%  
57 7% 24%  
58 4% 17%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.2% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 0.8% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 3% 94%  
48 4% 90%  
49 6% 86%  
50 9% 79%  
51 8% 71%  
52 9% 63%  
53 8% 54% Median
54 9% 46%  
55 9% 37%  
56 7% 28%  
57 5% 20%  
58 4% 15%  
59 4% 11%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 541 100% 532–550 530–553 527–554 523–559
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 480 100% 470–490 468–493 465–495 460–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 450 100% 439–460 437–463 434–465 429–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 416–437 413–440 411–443 406–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 396 100% 386–407 383–410 381–413 375–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 386–407 383–410 380–412 375–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 8% 333–354 330–357 327–360 322–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 335 1.0% 325–346 322–349 319–352 314–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 313 0% 302–323 299–326 296–329 291–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0% 302–323 299–326 296–328 291–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 249–269 246–272 244–274 239–279
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–177 156–179 154–182 150–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 159–177 156–179 154–182 150–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 99.9%  
519 0.1% 99.9%  
520 0.1% 99.8%  
521 0.1% 99.8%  
522 0.1% 99.7%  
523 0.3% 99.6%  
524 0.4% 99.3%  
525 0.5% 98.8%  
526 0.7% 98%  
527 0.8% 98%  
528 0.8% 97%  
529 0.9% 96%  
530 2% 95%  
531 2% 93%  
532 4% 91%  
533 3% 87%  
534 3% 84%  
535 2% 81%  
536 3% 79%  
537 5% 76%  
538 7% 71%  
539 6% 63%  
540 7% 58%  
541 6% 51% Median
542 4% 45%  
543 3% 41%  
544 6% 38%  
545 7% 32%  
546 5% 25%  
547 4% 20%  
548 3% 16%  
549 3% 13%  
550 2% 10%  
551 2% 9%  
552 2% 7%  
553 2% 5%  
554 2% 4%  
555 0.7% 2%  
556 0.5% 2%  
557 0.2% 1.0%  
558 0.2% 0.8%  
559 0.2% 0.6%  
560 0.1% 0.4%  
561 0.1% 0.2%  
562 0.1% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.2% 99.6%  
461 0.2% 99.4%  
462 0.3% 99.2%  
463 0.5% 98.9%  
464 0.6% 98%  
465 0.8% 98%  
466 0.9% 97%  
467 1.0% 96%  
468 2% 95%  
469 3% 93%  
470 1.3% 91%  
471 3% 89%  
472 3% 86%  
473 3% 84%  
474 4% 81%  
475 6% 77%  
476 3% 71%  
477 4% 68%  
478 4% 64%  
479 7% 60%  
480 5% 53% Median
481 5% 48%  
482 4% 43%  
483 5% 39%  
484 4% 34%  
485 6% 30%  
486 3% 23%  
487 3% 21%  
488 4% 17%  
489 3% 14%  
490 2% 11%  
491 2% 9%  
492 1.3% 7%  
493 1.2% 5%  
494 1.3% 4%  
495 0.8% 3%  
496 0.6% 2%  
497 0.4% 2%  
498 0.3% 1.2%  
499 0.3% 0.9%  
500 0.3% 0.6%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.2% 99.7%  
429 0.2% 99.5%  
430 0.2% 99.4%  
431 0.4% 99.2%  
432 0.3% 98.8%  
433 0.8% 98.5%  
434 0.6% 98%  
435 0.6% 97%  
436 1.2% 97%  
437 1.1% 95%  
438 2% 94%  
439 2% 92%  
440 2% 89%  
441 3% 87%  
442 3% 84%  
443 3% 81%  
444 4% 78%  
445 4% 74%  
446 6% 70%  
447 3% 64%  
448 4% 61%  
449 5% 57% Median
450 6% 52%  
451 6% 46%  
452 4% 41%  
453 3% 37%  
454 5% 33%  
455 6% 28%  
456 2% 22%  
457 4% 20%  
458 2% 16%  
459 2% 13%  
460 2% 11%  
461 2% 9%  
462 2% 7%  
463 1.2% 5%  
464 0.8% 4%  
465 0.7% 3%  
466 0.8% 2%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.4% 1.2%  
469 0.2% 0.8%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.2% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.3%  
408 0.3% 99.0%  
409 0.4% 98.7%  
410 0.5% 98%  
411 0.7% 98%  
412 1.1% 97%  
413 1.3% 96%  
414 1.4% 95%  
415 2% 93%  
416 2% 92%  
417 2% 90%  
418 3% 87%  
419 3% 84%  
420 4% 82%  
421 4% 78%  
422 3% 74%  
423 5% 70%  
424 5% 65%  
425 4% 60%  
426 6% 56%  
427 5% 50% Median
428 4% 45%  
429 6% 41%  
430 4% 35%  
431 4% 31%  
432 4% 28%  
433 3% 23%  
434 4% 21%  
435 3% 17%  
436 2% 13%  
437 3% 12%  
438 1.3% 9%  
439 2% 7%  
440 2% 6%  
441 0.8% 4%  
442 0.7% 3%  
443 0.7% 3%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.4% 1.3%  
446 0.3% 1.0%  
447 0.1% 0.7%  
448 0.2% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.4%  
377 0.2% 99.2%  
378 0.4% 99.0%  
379 0.5% 98.6%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 1.0% 97%  
383 1.2% 96%  
384 2% 95%  
385 2% 93%  
386 2% 91%  
387 3% 89%  
388 3% 87%  
389 3% 84%  
390 4% 80%  
391 3% 77%  
392 3% 73%  
393 7% 71%  
394 6% 63%  
395 4% 57%  
396 4% 54% Median
397 4% 50%  
398 5% 45%  
399 4% 41%  
400 4% 36%  
401 3% 33%  
402 4% 30%  
403 4% 25%  
404 3% 21%  
405 4% 18%  
406 3% 14%  
407 2% 11%  
408 2% 9%  
409 2% 7%  
410 0.9% 5%  
411 0.8% 4%  
412 0.9% 4%  
413 0.8% 3%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.4%  
416 0.3% 1.0%  
417 0.2% 0.7%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.8%  
375 0.3% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.1% 99.1%  
378 0.3% 99.0%  
379 1.0% 98.7%  
380 0.8% 98%  
381 0.4% 97%  
382 0.9% 96%  
383 2% 96%  
384 3% 94%  
385 0.8% 91%  
386 1.0% 90%  
387 3% 89%  
388 5% 86%  
389 4% 81%  
390 2% 77%  
391 2% 76%  
392 6% 74%  
393 7% 68%  
394 4% 61%  
395 3% 57%  
396 5% 55% Median
397 7% 49%  
398 4% 42%  
399 3% 38% Last Result
400 3% 35%  
401 6% 32%  
402 5% 26%  
403 3% 21%  
404 2% 18%  
405 2% 16%  
406 3% 14%  
407 3% 11%  
408 1.2% 7%  
409 0.8% 6%  
410 1.4% 5%  
411 1.0% 4%  
412 0.8% 3%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.3% 1.2%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 99.4%  
324 0.4% 99.2%  
325 0.4% 98.8%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.8% 97%  
329 1.4% 97%  
330 1.4% 95%  
331 1.3% 94%  
332 2% 92%  
333 2% 90%  
334 2% 88%  
335 3% 85%  
336 5% 82%  
337 3% 78%  
338 3% 74%  
339 5% 71%  
340 6% 67% Last Result
341 5% 61%  
342 4% 56%  
343 5% 52% Median
344 4% 46%  
345 4% 43%  
346 5% 39%  
347 4% 34%  
348 3% 30%  
349 5% 27%  
350 4% 22%  
351 3% 18%  
352 2% 15%  
353 2% 13%  
354 3% 11%  
355 1.5% 8% Majority
356 1.5% 7%  
357 1.2% 5%  
358 1.0% 4%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.6% 2%  
362 0.3% 1.3%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.3%  
317 0.5% 99.0%  
318 0.6% 98.5%  
319 0.6% 98%  
320 0.8% 97%  
321 1.0% 97%  
322 1.2% 96%  
323 2% 94%  
324 2% 93%  
325 2% 90%  
326 3% 89% Last Result
327 2% 86%  
328 3% 83%  
329 3% 80%  
330 6% 77%  
331 4% 71%  
332 5% 68%  
333 5% 63%  
334 4% 57%  
335 4% 54% Median
336 3% 49%  
337 6% 47%  
338 4% 41%  
339 6% 37%  
340 5% 31%  
341 3% 27%  
342 3% 23%  
343 4% 21%  
344 3% 17%  
345 2% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 2% 9%  
348 1.3% 7%  
349 1.4% 6%  
350 1.2% 4%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.7% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.4%  
355 0.2% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.2% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.3% 98.9%  
295 0.5% 98.6%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 0.8% 97%  
298 1.3% 97%  
299 0.8% 95%  
300 2% 94% Last Result
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 3% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 4% 83%  
306 3% 79%  
307 4% 76%  
308 5% 72%  
309 4% 67%  
310 3% 64%  
311 4% 60%  
312 5% 56% Median
313 6% 51%  
314 5% 46%  
315 4% 41%  
316 5% 36%  
317 3% 32%  
318 6% 29%  
319 4% 23%  
320 2% 19%  
321 4% 17%  
322 3% 13%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.1% 6%  
326 1.3% 5%  
327 0.7% 4%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.4%  
332 0.3% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.2% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.3%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.5% 98.6%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 0.9% 97%  
298 0.8% 96%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 2% 95%  
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 3% 89%  
304 4% 86%  
305 3% 82%  
306 4% 79%  
307 4% 75%  
308 3% 70%  
309 4% 67%  
310 4% 64%  
311 5% 59%  
312 4% 55%  
313 4% 50% Median
314 4% 46%  
315 6% 43%  
316 7% 37%  
317 3% 29%  
318 3% 27%  
319 4% 23%  
320 3% 20%  
321 3% 16%  
322 3% 13%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.2% 5%  
327 1.0% 4%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.4%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.4%  
241 0.4% 99.0%  
242 0.4% 98.7%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 0.9% 98%  
245 1.1% 97%  
246 1.3% 95%  
247 2% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 3% 88%  
251 3% 85%  
252 4% 82%  
253 3% 78%  
254 4% 75%  
255 5% 71%  
256 4% 66%  
257 5% 62%  
258 4% 57%  
259 6% 53% Median
260 5% 47%  
261 5% 42%  
262 4% 38%  
263 4% 33%  
264 4% 29%  
265 5% 25%  
266 3% 20%  
267 3% 17%  
268 2% 14%  
269 2% 12%  
270 2% 9%  
271 1.5% 7%  
272 1.2% 6%  
273 0.8% 4%  
274 1.0% 3%  
275 0.6% 2%  
276 0.6% 2%  
277 0.4% 1.3%  
278 0.3% 0.9%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.4% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.0%  
153 0.5% 98.7%  
154 1.1% 98%  
155 1.0% 97%  
156 2% 96%  
157 1.3% 94%  
158 2% 93%  
159 4% 91%  
160 2% 87%  
161 4% 85%  
162 4% 81%  
163 4% 76%  
164 6% 72%  
165 4% 67%  
166 7% 62%  
167 5% 56%  
168 4% 51% Median
169 5% 46%  
170 5% 41%  
171 6% 36%  
172 7% 30%  
173 2% 23%  
174 4% 21%  
175 3% 17%  
176 3% 14%  
177 4% 11%  
178 1.2% 8%  
179 2% 6%  
180 1.1% 5%  
181 0.7% 4%  
182 1.0% 3%  
183 0.3% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.0%  
186 0.1% 0.6%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.5% 99.0%  
153 0.8% 98.6%  
154 0.8% 98%  
155 0.8% 97%  
156 2% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 3% 93%  
159 3% 90%  
160 3% 87%  
161 3% 84%  
162 4% 81%  
163 4% 77%  
164 5% 73%  
165 5% 68%  
166 5% 62%  
167 5% 58% Median
168 6% 53%  
169 6% 47%  
170 6% 41%  
171 6% 35%  
172 4% 29%  
173 4% 25%  
174 4% 21%  
175 3% 17%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 1.5% 8%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.5% 5%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 1.0% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.3%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations