Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 5–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.9–30.1% 26.6–30.5% 26.0–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.5–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.3–11.9% 8.9–12.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.3–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.9–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.8–9.3% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 210 201–219 198–222 196–225 192–229
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 129 122–137 119–139 118–141 114–145
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 118 111–126 108–128 107–130 103–134
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 71–84 70–86 68–88 65–91
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 61–73 60–74 58–76 55–79
Die Linke 69 63 57–69 56–71 54–72 52–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 40–49 38–51 37–52 35–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0.2% 99.7%  
192 0.2% 99.6%  
193 0.4% 99.4%  
194 0.5% 99.0%  
195 0.6% 98%  
196 0.8% 98%  
197 1.1% 97%  
198 1.3% 96%  
199 2% 95%  
200 2% 93% Last Result
201 2% 91%  
202 3% 89%  
203 5% 86%  
204 3% 80%  
205 4% 77%  
206 6% 73%  
207 5% 67%  
208 6% 62%  
209 5% 56%  
210 5% 51% Median
211 5% 46%  
212 5% 41%  
213 5% 35%  
214 5% 30%  
215 4% 25%  
216 3% 21%  
217 4% 18%  
218 3% 14%  
219 3% 11%  
220 2% 9%  
221 2% 7%  
222 1.2% 5%  
223 1.0% 4%  
224 0.7% 3%  
225 0.8% 3%  
226 0.4% 2%  
227 0.5% 1.3%  
228 0.3% 0.8%  
229 0.2% 0.6%  
230 0.1% 0.4%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0.1% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.4% 99.4%  
116 0.6% 99.0%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.3% 98%  
119 2% 96%  
120 2% 95%  
121 2% 93%  
122 3% 90%  
123 4% 88%  
124 4% 83%  
125 6% 79%  
126 6% 74%  
127 6% 67%  
128 7% 61%  
129 7% 54% Median
130 5% 47%  
131 6% 42%  
132 4% 36%  
133 5% 31%  
134 6% 26%  
135 4% 20%  
136 4% 16%  
137 3% 12%  
138 3% 9%  
139 1.5% 6%  
140 1.4% 5%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.1%  
145 0.3% 0.8%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.4% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.7% 98.7%  
107 1.3% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 3% 91%  
112 4% 87%  
113 4% 83%  
114 6% 79%  
115 5% 72%  
116 6% 67%  
117 6% 62%  
118 9% 55% Median
119 7% 46%  
120 6% 40%  
121 5% 33%  
122 6% 29%  
123 5% 23%  
124 5% 18%  
125 3% 13%  
126 3% 10%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.3% 4%  
130 0.7% 3%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.3%  
133 0.4% 0.9%  
134 0.3% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 99.1%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 4% 93%  
72 4% 90%  
73 8% 86%  
74 5% 78%  
75 10% 73%  
76 5% 63%  
77 9% 58% Median
78 7% 48%  
79 7% 41%  
80 8% 34%  
81 5% 26%  
82 6% 21%  
83 3% 15%  
84 4% 12%  
85 2% 8%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.0% 4%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 4% 95%  
61 3% 91%  
62 5% 88%  
63 6% 83%  
64 8% 77%  
65 10% 69%  
66 6% 59%  
67 10% 53% Median
68 7% 43%  
69 9% 36%  
70 6% 27%  
71 5% 21%  
72 5% 16%  
73 3% 10%  
74 3% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.4% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.4% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 0.6% 99.2%  
54 1.2% 98.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 5% 89%  
59 7% 84%  
60 7% 77%  
61 9% 70%  
62 9% 61%  
63 8% 52% Median
64 9% 44%  
65 7% 35%  
66 6% 28%  
67 7% 22%  
68 4% 15%  
69 4% 11% Last Result
70 2% 7%  
71 2% 5%  
72 1.3% 3%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98%  
38 3% 97%  
39 3% 94%  
40 6% 91%  
41 6% 84%  
42 11% 79%  
43 9% 68%  
44 11% 60% Median
45 10% 48%  
46 9% 38% Last Result
47 10% 29%  
48 5% 20%  
49 5% 14%  
50 3% 9%  
51 2% 6%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.8% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 502 100% 493–511 490–514 487–516 483–520
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 450 100% 441–460 438–463 435–465 431–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 430–449 426–452 424–454 419–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 398 100% 389–409 386–412 384–414 379–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 384 100% 373–394 371–396 368–399 364–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 372 98.8% 362–383 359–385 357–388 352–393
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 333 0.3% 323–342 319–345 316–347 312–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 321 0% 311–331 308–334 306–336 301–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 314 0% 304–324 301–327 299–330 294–335
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 311 0% 300–320 297–323 295–325 291–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 248 0% 238–257 235–260 233–262 228–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 185 0% 176–194 173–197 171–198 168–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 172–190 170–192 168–195 164–199

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 99.9%  
479 0% 99.9%  
480 0.1% 99.9%  
481 0.1% 99.8%  
482 0.1% 99.8%  
483 0.2% 99.6%  
484 0.3% 99.5%  
485 0.5% 99.2%  
486 0.5% 98.7%  
487 1.0% 98%  
488 0.9% 97%  
489 1.1% 96%  
490 0.9% 95%  
491 1.4% 94%  
492 2% 93%  
493 3% 91%  
494 2% 88%  
495 5% 86%  
496 5% 81%  
497 4% 76%  
498 5% 71%  
499 4% 66%  
500 4% 61%  
501 5% 57% Median
502 5% 52%  
503 6% 47%  
504 5% 41%  
505 6% 37%  
506 6% 31%  
507 6% 26%  
508 4% 20%  
509 3% 16%  
510 2% 13%  
511 2% 11%  
512 2% 9%  
513 2% 7%  
514 1.4% 5%  
515 1.2% 4%  
516 0.8% 3%  
517 0.6% 2%  
518 0.4% 1.3%  
519 0.3% 0.8%  
520 0.2% 0.5%  
521 0.1% 0.4%  
522 0.1% 0.3%  
523 0% 0.2%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.2% 99.7%  
431 0.3% 99.5%  
432 0.2% 99.3%  
433 0.5% 99.1%  
434 0.3% 98.6%  
435 1.0% 98%  
436 0.8% 97%  
437 1.0% 97%  
438 1.0% 95%  
439 2% 95%  
440 2% 93%  
441 2% 90%  
442 3% 88%  
443 4% 85%  
444 3% 82%  
445 4% 79%  
446 4% 74%  
447 4% 70%  
448 6% 66%  
449 5% 60%  
450 4% 54% Median
451 5% 50%  
452 5% 45%  
453 6% 40%  
454 4% 34%  
455 6% 30%  
456 4% 24%  
457 3% 21%  
458 3% 17%  
459 3% 14%  
460 3% 12%  
461 2% 9%  
462 2% 7%  
463 1.4% 6%  
464 0.9% 4%  
465 0.9% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.6% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.1%  
469 0.2% 0.8%  
470 0.3% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.2% 99.6%  
420 0.2% 99.5%  
421 0.4% 99.3%  
422 0.4% 98.9%  
423 0.6% 98.5%  
424 0.7% 98%  
425 0.8% 97%  
426 1.4% 96%  
427 0.9% 95%  
428 2% 94%  
429 2% 92%  
430 3% 90%  
431 3% 87%  
432 3% 84%  
433 4% 81%  
434 5% 77%  
435 4% 73%  
436 5% 68%  
437 5% 63%  
438 4% 58%  
439 5% 54% Median
440 6% 49%  
441 6% 43%  
442 4% 38%  
443 6% 34%  
444 4% 28%  
445 4% 24%  
446 3% 20%  
447 3% 17%  
448 2% 14%  
449 2% 12%  
450 2% 9%  
451 2% 7%  
452 2% 6%  
453 1.4% 4%  
454 0.7% 3%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.5% 2%  
457 0.3% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.7%  
459 0.2% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.1% 99.6%  
379 0.4% 99.5%  
380 0.2% 99.2%  
381 0.3% 99.0%  
382 0.7% 98.7%  
383 0.4% 98%  
384 1.0% 98%  
385 1.0% 97%  
386 1.0% 96%  
387 2% 95%  
388 2% 92%  
389 2% 90%  
390 4% 89%  
391 4% 85%  
392 2% 82%  
393 7% 79%  
394 3% 72%  
395 4% 69%  
396 6% 65%  
397 3% 59%  
398 6% 56% Median
399 5% 49%  
400 3% 44%  
401 5% 41%  
402 5% 36%  
403 4% 31%  
404 5% 27%  
405 3% 22%  
406 2% 19%  
407 4% 16%  
408 1.4% 12%  
409 2% 11%  
410 2% 9%  
411 0.6% 6%  
412 1.5% 6%  
413 1.3% 4%  
414 0.4% 3%  
415 0.9% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.5%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.3% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.3%  
366 0.5% 99.0%  
367 0.5% 98%  
368 0.8% 98%  
369 0.6% 97%  
370 1.1% 97%  
371 1.4% 95%  
372 2% 94%  
373 3% 92%  
374 2% 89%  
375 2% 87%  
376 2% 85%  
377 3% 83%  
378 5% 79%  
379 4% 75%  
380 6% 71%  
381 4% 64%  
382 4% 60%  
383 5% 56% Median
384 3% 50%  
385 7% 47%  
386 4% 40%  
387 5% 36%  
388 5% 31%  
389 4% 26%  
390 2% 22%  
391 3% 19%  
392 3% 17%  
393 2% 13%  
394 3% 11%  
395 1.5% 8%  
396 1.3% 6%  
397 0.9% 5%  
398 0.7% 4%  
399 1.3% 3%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.3% 1.0%  
403 0.3% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.3% 99.4%  
354 0.3% 99.1%  
355 0.3% 98.8% Majority
356 0.7% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 1.1% 97%  
359 1.2% 96%  
360 1.0% 95%  
361 2% 94%  
362 3% 92%  
363 2% 90%  
364 4% 87%  
365 2% 84%  
366 3% 82%  
367 5% 79%  
368 6% 74%  
369 4% 68%  
370 6% 64%  
371 4% 57%  
372 5% 53% Median
373 5% 49%  
374 5% 44%  
375 4% 39%  
376 4% 35%  
377 5% 31%  
378 4% 27%  
379 4% 23%  
380 4% 19%  
381 2% 15%  
382 2% 13%  
383 3% 10%  
384 1.4% 8%  
385 1.4% 6%  
386 1.0% 5%  
387 1.1% 4%  
388 0.8% 3%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.1%  
392 0.2% 0.8%  
393 0.2% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.2% 99.7%  
313 0.4% 99.4%  
314 0.5% 99.0%  
315 0.7% 98.5%  
316 0.8% 98%  
317 0.8% 97%  
318 0.6% 96%  
319 0.7% 96%  
320 0.7% 95%  
321 1.5% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 4% 90%  
324 4% 86%  
325 4% 82%  
326 5% 78%  
327 6% 72%  
328 5% 66%  
329 3% 61%  
330 2% 58%  
331 2% 56% Median
332 3% 53%  
333 4% 51%  
334 8% 47%  
335 6% 39%  
336 7% 33%  
337 5% 26%  
338 3% 21%  
339 4% 17%  
340 1.5% 14% Last Result
341 1.4% 12%  
342 1.4% 11%  
343 1.5% 10%  
344 1.5% 8%  
345 2% 7%  
346 1.2% 5%  
347 1.2% 4%  
348 1.0% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.5%  
350 0.4% 1.1%  
351 0.2% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0.3% 99.4%  
303 0.4% 99.2%  
304 0.6% 98.8%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 1.0% 98%  
307 1.1% 97%  
308 0.8% 96%  
309 2% 95%  
310 2% 93%  
311 3% 91%  
312 1.3% 88%  
313 4% 87%  
314 3% 83%  
315 3% 80%  
316 5% 77%  
317 4% 72%  
318 6% 68%  
319 4% 62%  
320 7% 58%  
321 3% 51% Median
322 5% 48%  
323 5% 43%  
324 6% 38%  
325 3% 32%  
326 6% 30% Last Result
327 4% 24%  
328 2% 20%  
329 4% 18%  
330 2% 14%  
331 3% 12%  
332 1.3% 9%  
333 3% 8%  
334 0.7% 5%  
335 1.3% 4%  
336 0.7% 3%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.3%  
340 0.5% 1.1%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.3% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.3% 99.1%  
297 0.4% 98.8%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.9% 98%  
300 0.8% 97% Last Result
301 1.3% 96%  
302 1.3% 95%  
303 2% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 4% 88%  
307 3% 84%  
308 4% 81%  
309 3% 77%  
310 4% 73%  
311 5% 69%  
312 4% 64%  
313 7% 60%  
314 4% 53% Median
315 4% 49%  
316 6% 45%  
317 3% 39%  
318 6% 35%  
319 4% 29%  
320 4% 26%  
321 4% 21%  
322 3% 17%  
323 3% 15%  
324 2% 12%  
325 3% 10%  
326 1.2% 7%  
327 2% 6%  
328 1.2% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.5% 1.4%  
333 0.3% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0.2% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.3% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.2%  
293 0.4% 99.0%  
294 0.9% 98.5%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 1.3% 97%  
297 1.5% 96%  
298 0.6% 94%  
299 2% 94%  
300 2% 91%  
301 1.4% 89%  
302 4% 88%  
303 2% 84%  
304 3% 81%  
305 5% 78%  
306 4% 73%  
307 5% 69%  
308 5% 64%  
309 3% 59%  
310 5% 56% Median
311 6% 51%  
312 3% 44%  
313 6% 41%  
314 4% 35%  
315 3% 31%  
316 7% 28%  
317 2% 21%  
318 4% 18%  
319 4% 15%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 10%  
322 2% 8%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 1.0% 4%  
325 1.0% 3%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.7% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.0%  
330 0.4% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.7%  
229 0.3% 99.5%  
230 0.4% 99.2%  
231 0.4% 98.8%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 1.0% 98%  
234 1.3% 97%  
235 1.0% 95%  
236 2% 95%  
237 2% 93%  
238 3% 91%  
239 3% 88%  
240 3% 85%  
241 4% 83%  
242 3% 79%  
243 4% 75%  
244 7% 71%  
245 5% 64%  
246 4% 59%  
247 4% 55% Median
248 6% 51%  
249 5% 44%  
250 6% 40%  
251 4% 33%  
252 4% 30%  
253 4% 26%  
254 4% 22%  
255 4% 18%  
256 2% 14%  
257 3% 12%  
258 2% 9%  
259 2% 7%  
260 1.4% 5%  
261 0.9% 4%  
262 0.9% 3%  
263 0.5% 2%  
264 0.7% 2%  
265 0.3% 1.1%  
266 0.2% 0.8%  
267 0.2% 0.6%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.2% 99.7%  
168 0.3% 99.5%  
169 0.4% 99.2%  
170 0.4% 98.8%  
171 1.0% 98%  
172 1.3% 97%  
173 1.3% 96%  
174 2% 95%  
175 2% 93%  
176 2% 91%  
177 3% 89%  
178 3% 86%  
179 3% 83%  
180 5% 80%  
181 4% 74%  
182 6% 70%  
183 5% 64%  
184 6% 59%  
185 8% 53% Median
186 6% 45%  
187 4% 39%  
188 6% 35%  
189 4% 29%  
190 4% 25%  
191 3% 21%  
192 3% 17%  
193 3% 14%  
194 3% 11%  
195 2% 8%  
196 1.3% 6%  
197 1.3% 5%  
198 1.3% 4%  
199 0.8% 2%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.5% 1.3%  
202 0.3% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.7%  
164 0.3% 99.6%  
165 0.4% 99.3%  
166 0.5% 98.9%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 1.1% 98%  
169 1.4% 97%  
170 1.3% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 3% 89%  
174 3% 86%  
175 4% 83%  
176 4% 79%  
177 5% 75%  
178 4% 70%  
179 8% 66%  
180 6% 58%  
181 5% 52% Median
182 5% 47%  
183 6% 42%  
184 5% 36%  
185 6% 31%  
186 5% 25%  
187 3% 21%  
188 4% 18%  
189 2% 13%  
190 3% 11%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.5% 6%  
193 1.3% 5%  
194 0.8% 3%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.6% 2%  
197 0.5% 1.3%  
198 0.3% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.6%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations