Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4–10 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.0–29.9% 26.6–30.3% 26.2–30.7% 25.6–31.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.8–7.4% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–7.9% 5.1–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 217 210–223 196–224 193–225 188–228
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 132 123–141 121–144 119–147 115–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 118–136 116–139 113–141 109–145
Alternative für Deutschland 94 73 67–81 65–83 64–85 61–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 53–66 52–68 51–69 47–73
Die Linke 69 52 46–59 45–61 44–62 41–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 43–55 42–57 41–59 38–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.3% 99.5%  
190 0.4% 99.2%  
191 0.5% 98.7%  
192 0.6% 98%  
193 0.8% 98%  
194 0.8% 97%  
195 0.9% 96%  
196 0.7% 95%  
197 0.6% 94%  
198 0.5% 94%  
199 0.5% 93%  
200 0.4% 93% Last Result
201 0.1% 92%  
202 0.1% 92%  
203 0.1% 92%  
204 0.1% 92%  
205 0.1% 92%  
206 0.1% 92%  
207 0.3% 92%  
208 0.5% 91%  
209 0.8% 91%  
210 2% 90%  
211 2% 89%  
212 4% 86%  
213 4% 83%  
214 7% 78%  
215 8% 71%  
216 8% 64%  
217 9% 56% Median
218 9% 47%  
219 8% 37%  
220 8% 29%  
221 6% 21%  
222 5% 15%  
223 4% 11%  
224 3% 6%  
225 2% 4%  
226 0.9% 2%  
227 0.6% 1.1%  
228 0.3% 0.6%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.3% 99.5%  
117 0.4% 99.2%  
118 0.6% 98.8%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 1.4% 97%  
121 1.3% 96%  
122 2% 94%  
123 3% 92%  
124 3% 90%  
125 4% 87%  
126 5% 83%  
127 5% 78%  
128 4% 73%  
129 5% 69%  
130 5% 64%  
131 7% 59%  
132 7% 52% Median
133 6% 45%  
134 5% 39%  
135 5% 34%  
136 5% 29%  
137 4% 24%  
138 4% 20%  
139 3% 16%  
140 2% 13%  
141 2% 11%  
142 2% 9%  
143 1.4% 7%  
144 1.4% 5%  
145 0.8% 4%  
146 0.7% 3%  
147 0.6% 3%  
148 0.4% 2%  
149 0.3% 1.5%  
150 0.3% 1.1%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.4%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.6%  
110 0.2% 99.3%  
111 0.3% 99.1%  
112 0.7% 98.8%  
113 0.9% 98%  
114 1.1% 97%  
115 1.1% 96%  
116 1.4% 95%  
117 3% 94%  
118 4% 91%  
119 3% 87%  
120 3% 84%  
121 4% 81%  
122 7% 78%  
123 5% 71%  
124 4% 66%  
125 4% 62%  
126 6% 58%  
127 7% 52% Median
128 5% 45%  
129 4% 39%  
130 5% 35%  
131 5% 30%  
132 5% 24%  
133 3% 19%  
134 3% 16%  
135 3% 14%  
136 3% 11%  
137 2% 8%  
138 1.0% 6%  
139 1.0% 5%  
140 1.2% 4%  
141 1.0% 3%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.4%  
144 0.4% 1.1%  
145 0.2% 0.7%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98.6%  
64 1.5% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 2% 94%  
67 4% 91%  
68 5% 87%  
69 5% 83%  
70 7% 77%  
71 6% 71%  
72 8% 64%  
73 7% 57% Median
74 7% 50%  
75 7% 43%  
76 6% 36%  
77 6% 29%  
78 5% 23%  
79 5% 19%  
80 3% 14%  
81 3% 11%  
82 2% 8%  
83 1.4% 6%  
84 1.3% 4%  
85 1.0% 3%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.5%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.5%  
48 0.2% 99.2%  
49 0.2% 99.0%  
50 0.4% 98.8%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 8% 91%  
54 7% 82%  
55 3% 75%  
56 1.3% 72%  
57 2% 70%  
58 5% 69%  
59 13% 63%  
60 16% 51% Median
61 12% 35%  
62 6% 23%  
63 2% 17%  
64 1.5% 15%  
65 2% 14%  
66 3% 12%  
67 3% 9%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.3% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 0.9% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 4% 85%  
49 5% 81%  
50 7% 76%  
51 10% 69%  
52 10% 59% Median
53 7% 49%  
54 7% 42%  
55 6% 35%  
56 7% 29%  
57 7% 22%  
58 5% 15%  
59 3% 11%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 0.7% 99.3%  
40 1.0% 98.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 3% 93%  
44 5% 89%  
45 7% 85%  
46 6% 78% Last Result
47 8% 71%  
48 9% 63%  
49 8% 54% Median
50 9% 46%  
51 8% 38%  
52 6% 30%  
53 6% 23%  
54 5% 18%  
55 4% 13%  
56 3% 9%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 1.2% 3%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 524 100% 514–533 510–536 507–538 500–543
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 445–467 441–470 439–473 433–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 451 100% 440–460 435–463 431–466 424–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 398 100% 386–408 383–412 380–415 374–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 386–408 382–411 379–413 372–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 393 100% 382–401 372–403 368–405 362–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 2% 328–349 324–352 319–354 311–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 325 0% 313–334 309–337 304–340 297–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 307–328 304–333 302–337 297–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 311 0% 301–323 297–326 294–329 289–335
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 258 0% 248–269 244–273 242–276 238–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 186 0% 175–196 173–199 171–202 166–207
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–189 167–193 164–196 159–201

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 99.9%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.1% 99.7%  
500 0.1% 99.6%  
501 0.2% 99.5%  
502 0.2% 99.3%  
503 0.3% 99.1%  
504 0.4% 98.8%  
505 0.4% 98%  
506 0.5% 98%  
507 0.5% 98%  
508 0.7% 97%  
509 0.8% 96%  
510 1.0% 96%  
511 1.1% 95%  
512 1.4% 94%  
513 2% 92%  
514 2% 90%  
515 3% 88%  
516 2% 85%  
517 3% 83%  
518 3% 80%  
519 4% 76%  
520 5% 72%  
521 5% 67%  
522 4% 63%  
523 6% 59%  
524 5% 53%  
525 6% 48% Median
526 6% 41%  
527 5% 36%  
528 5% 31%  
529 4% 26%  
530 4% 22%  
531 3% 18%  
532 3% 15%  
533 2% 12%  
534 2% 9%  
535 2% 7%  
536 1.2% 5%  
537 1.2% 4%  
538 0.9% 3%  
539 0.5% 2%  
540 0.5% 2%  
541 0.3% 1.1%  
542 0.2% 0.8%  
543 0.2% 0.5%  
544 0.1% 0.4%  
545 0.1% 0.2%  
546 0.1% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.7%  
433 0.2% 99.6%  
434 0.2% 99.5%  
435 0.2% 99.3%  
436 0.4% 99.0%  
437 0.4% 98.7%  
438 0.6% 98%  
439 0.6% 98%  
440 0.7% 97%  
441 1.4% 96%  
442 1.0% 95%  
443 1.3% 94%  
444 2% 93%  
445 2% 91%  
446 2% 88%  
447 3% 86%  
448 2% 83%  
449 3% 81%  
450 5% 78%  
451 3% 73%  
452 3% 70%  
453 6% 67%  
454 4% 60%  
455 4% 57%  
456 5% 52%  
457 5% 48%  
458 4% 43% Median
459 4% 38%  
460 5% 34%  
461 3% 29%  
462 4% 26%  
463 4% 22%  
464 2% 18%  
465 3% 16%  
466 3% 13%  
467 2% 11%  
468 2% 9%  
469 1.3% 7%  
470 1.0% 6%  
471 1.1% 5%  
472 0.9% 4%  
473 0.7% 3%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.4% 2%  
476 0.3% 1.1%  
477 0.2% 0.8%  
478 0.2% 0.6%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.4%  
426 0.2% 99.2%  
427 0.3% 99.0%  
428 0.2% 98.7%  
429 0.3% 98.5%  
430 0.3% 98%  
431 0.5% 98%  
432 0.6% 97%  
433 0.6% 97%  
434 0.7% 96%  
435 0.9% 96%  
436 0.7% 95%  
437 1.1% 94%  
438 0.9% 93%  
439 1.2% 92%  
440 2% 91%  
441 2% 89%  
442 3% 88%  
443 3% 85%  
444 2% 82%  
445 3% 80%  
446 4% 77%  
447 5% 73%  
448 6% 68%  
449 5% 62%  
450 4% 58%  
451 4% 54%  
452 6% 50%  
453 6% 44% Median
454 7% 39%  
455 5% 32%  
456 3% 27%  
457 3% 24%  
458 4% 21%  
459 4% 17%  
460 4% 13%  
461 2% 10%  
462 1.4% 8%  
463 1.3% 6%  
464 1.0% 5%  
465 1.1% 4%  
466 1.0% 3%  
467 0.6% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.2%  
469 0.2% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.2% 99.3%  
376 0.2% 99.2%  
377 0.4% 98.9%  
378 0.4% 98.6%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 0.8% 97%  
382 0.9% 96%  
383 0.9% 95%  
384 1.3% 94%  
385 2% 93%  
386 2% 91%  
387 2% 90%  
388 3% 88%  
389 3% 85%  
390 2% 82%  
391 3% 79%  
392 3% 76%  
393 4% 73%  
394 5% 70%  
395 5% 65%  
396 5% 60%  
397 4% 56%  
398 5% 51%  
399 4% 47% Median
400 4% 42%  
401 5% 38%  
402 4% 33%  
403 3% 29%  
404 4% 26%  
405 3% 21%  
406 3% 18%  
407 3% 15%  
408 2% 12%  
409 0.9% 10%  
410 2% 9%  
411 1.4% 7%  
412 1.1% 6%  
413 1.0% 4%  
414 0.9% 3%  
415 0.3% 3%  
416 0.7% 2%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.3% 1.1%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.2% 99.4%  
374 0.2% 99.2%  
375 0.3% 99.0%  
376 0.3% 98.7%  
377 0.3% 98%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.8% 97%  
381 0.9% 96%  
382 0.9% 95%  
383 1.2% 94%  
384 1.2% 93%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 2% 89%  
388 2% 87%  
389 4% 84%  
390 3% 80%  
391 2% 77%  
392 4% 75%  
393 5% 71%  
394 4% 66%  
395 4% 62%  
396 5% 58%  
397 5% 53%  
398 4% 48% Median
399 5% 44%  
400 4% 39%  
401 5% 35%  
402 3% 30%  
403 5% 27%  
404 3% 21%  
405 3% 18%  
406 3% 16%  
407 2% 13%  
408 3% 11%  
409 1.5% 8%  
410 1.3% 7%  
411 1.4% 6%  
412 0.6% 4%  
413 1.1% 4%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.4%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.2% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0.1% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.6%  
363 0.3% 99.4%  
364 0.3% 99.1%  
365 0.4% 98.8%  
366 0.4% 98%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.5% 97%  
370 0.8% 97%  
371 0.4% 96%  
372 0.6% 95%  
373 0.4% 95%  
374 0.5% 94%  
375 0.5% 94%  
376 0.5% 93%  
377 0.3% 93%  
378 0.4% 93%  
379 0.4% 92%  
380 0.5% 92%  
381 0.6% 91%  
382 1.4% 91%  
383 1.0% 89%  
384 2% 88%  
385 1.4% 86%  
386 3% 85%  
387 3% 82%  
388 5% 79%  
389 6% 74%  
390 5% 68%  
391 5% 64%  
392 5% 58%  
393 8% 54% Median
394 9% 46%  
395 5% 37%  
396 5% 32%  
397 5% 27%  
398 4% 22%  
399 5% 18% Last Result
400 3% 13%  
401 3% 10%  
402 2% 7%  
403 2% 5%  
404 1.1% 4%  
405 0.9% 3%  
406 0.7% 2%  
407 0.4% 1.0%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0.2% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.4%  
314 0.2% 99.2%  
315 0.2% 99.0%  
316 0.4% 98.9%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.8% 98%  
320 0.4% 97%  
321 0.6% 97%  
322 0.6% 96%  
323 0.6% 96%  
324 0.9% 95%  
325 1.4% 94%  
326 1.5% 93%  
327 1.0% 91%  
328 2% 90%  
329 2% 88%  
330 2% 86%  
331 3% 84%  
332 3% 81%  
333 2% 78%  
334 7% 76%  
335 1.4% 69%  
336 5% 67%  
337 6% 62%  
338 3% 56%  
339 6% 54% Median
340 6% 48% Last Result
341 2% 42%  
342 6% 40%  
343 6% 34%  
344 3% 28%  
345 6% 25%  
346 2% 19%  
347 1.4% 17%  
348 5% 16%  
349 2% 11%  
350 2% 9%  
351 2% 7%  
352 0.7% 5%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 1.3% 4%  
355 0.4% 2% Majority
356 0.8% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.2%  
358 0.2% 0.8%  
359 0.2% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.2%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.2% 98.8%  
302 0.4% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.5% 97%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 0.5% 96%  
308 0.7% 96%  
309 1.1% 95%  
310 0.9% 94%  
311 1.0% 93%  
312 1.2% 92%  
313 2% 91%  
314 2% 89%  
315 2% 87%  
316 2% 85%  
317 3% 83%  
318 4% 80%  
319 3% 76%  
320 4% 73%  
321 5% 69%  
322 5% 65%  
323 4% 60%  
324 6% 56%  
325 5% 50%  
326 6% 45% Last Result, Median
327 4% 40%  
328 5% 35%  
329 4% 30%  
330 4% 26%  
331 4% 21%  
332 3% 17%  
333 3% 14%  
334 2% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 2% 7%  
337 1.3% 6%  
338 1.1% 5%  
339 0.8% 3%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.4% 1.3%  
343 0.3% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.2% 99.5%  
299 0.4% 99.3%  
300 0.3% 98.8% Last Result
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.9% 98%  
303 1.2% 97%  
304 1.3% 96%  
305 1.0% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 3% 92%  
308 3% 89%  
309 3% 87%  
310 3% 84%  
311 3% 81%  
312 5% 78%  
313 5% 73%  
314 6% 68%  
315 3% 62%  
316 5% 59%  
317 4% 54%  
318 6% 50%  
319 5% 44% Median
320 3% 39%  
321 4% 36%  
322 6% 32%  
323 3% 26%  
324 3% 23%  
325 3% 19%  
326 2% 17%  
327 3% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 1.4% 10%  
330 1.2% 9%  
331 1.2% 7%  
332 0.9% 6%  
333 0.8% 5%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.4% 3%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.2%  
292 0.4% 98.9%  
293 0.7% 98%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 1.0% 97%  
297 1.1% 96%  
298 1.4% 94%  
299 2% 93%  
300 0.9% 91%  
301 2% 90%  
302 3% 88%  
303 3% 85%  
304 3% 82%  
305 4% 79%  
306 3% 74%  
307 4% 71%  
308 5% 67%  
309 4% 62%  
310 4% 58%  
311 5% 53% Median
312 4% 49%  
313 5% 44%  
314 5% 40%  
315 5% 35%  
316 4% 30%  
317 3% 27%  
318 3% 24%  
319 2% 21%  
320 3% 18%  
321 3% 15%  
322 2% 12%  
323 2% 10%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.3% 7%  
326 0.9% 6%  
327 0.9% 5%  
328 0.8% 4%  
329 0.5% 3%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.4% 1.4%  
333 0.2% 1.1%  
334 0.2% 0.8%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.4% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.1%  
240 0.1% 98.8%  
241 0.3% 98.7%  
242 0.9% 98%  
243 2% 97%  
244 1.0% 96%  
245 0.3% 95%  
246 0.7% 95%  
247 2% 94%  
248 3% 91%  
249 3% 88%  
250 0.9% 85%  
251 1.3% 84%  
252 5% 83%  
253 9% 78%  
254 4% 69%  
255 1.3% 65%  
256 2% 64%  
257 5% 62%  
258 9% 57%  
259 6% 48% Median
260 2% 42%  
261 2% 41%  
262 5% 39%  
263 7% 34%  
264 5% 27%  
265 1.3% 22%  
266 1.4% 21%  
267 4% 19%  
268 4% 16%  
269 2% 11%  
270 0.9% 9%  
271 1.0% 8%  
272 1.5% 7%  
273 2% 6%  
274 0.6% 4%  
275 0.5% 3%  
276 0.6% 3%  
277 0.6% 2%  
278 0.5% 2%  
279 0.2% 1.3%  
280 0.3% 1.1%  
281 0.2% 0.8%  
282 0.2% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.7%  
166 0.2% 99.5%  
167 0.2% 99.3%  
168 0.5% 99.1%  
169 0.4% 98.6%  
170 0.6% 98%  
171 1.0% 98%  
172 0.9% 97%  
173 1.3% 96%  
174 2% 94%  
175 3% 93%  
176 2% 90%  
177 3% 88%  
178 4% 85%  
179 3% 81%  
180 4% 78%  
181 4% 74%  
182 4% 70%  
183 5% 66%  
184 4% 60%  
185 4% 56%  
186 5% 52%  
187 5% 47% Median
188 5% 41%  
189 5% 37%  
190 5% 32%  
191 3% 27%  
192 5% 24%  
193 3% 19%  
194 2% 16%  
195 3% 14%  
196 2% 11%  
197 2% 9%  
198 1.4% 7%  
199 1.2% 5%  
200 0.9% 4%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.7% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.5%  
205 0.2% 1.0%  
206 0.2% 0.8%  
207 0.2% 0.6%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.4% 99.4%  
161 0.2% 99.1%  
162 0.3% 98.9%  
163 0.5% 98.6%  
164 1.1% 98%  
165 1.0% 97%  
166 0.8% 96%  
167 1.2% 95%  
168 2% 94%  
169 3% 92%  
170 3% 88%  
171 1.2% 86%  
172 3% 85%  
173 4% 82%  
174 6% 78%  
175 3% 71%  
176 2% 68%  
177 5% 66%  
178 8% 61%  
179 7% 53% Median
180 2% 46%  
181 3% 44%  
182 5% 41%  
183 8% 36%  
184 4% 28%  
185 2% 25%  
186 3% 23%  
187 4% 20%  
188 4% 15%  
189 1.4% 11%  
190 0.7% 10%  
191 2% 9%  
192 2% 7%  
193 2% 5%  
194 0.6% 4%  
195 0.5% 3%  
196 0.8% 3%  
197 0.7% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.1% 0.8%  
200 0.1% 0.7%  
201 0.2% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations