Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.1–29.8% 26.8–30.1% 26.5–30.5% 25.9–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.3–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 216 207–227 204–229 201–231 197–236
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 136–153 134–156 132–158 128–162
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 114–130 111–133 110–134 106–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 48–59 47–61 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–56 44–57 42–59 40–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.2% 99.6%  
198 0.3% 99.5%  
199 0.5% 99.2%  
200 0.5% 98.7% Last Result
201 0.8% 98%  
202 0.8% 97%  
203 1.2% 97%  
204 1.4% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 3% 88%  
209 2% 85%  
210 4% 82%  
211 3% 79%  
212 6% 75%  
213 5% 69%  
214 7% 64%  
215 4% 57%  
216 6% 52% Median
217 4% 46%  
218 4% 42%  
219 4% 38%  
220 5% 34%  
221 4% 29%  
222 4% 25%  
223 3% 21%  
224 3% 17%  
225 3% 15%  
226 2% 12%  
227 3% 10%  
228 2% 7%  
229 2% 6%  
230 1.1% 4%  
231 0.5% 3%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.5% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.2%  
235 0.3% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.2% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.4% 99.5%  
130 0.5% 99.1%  
131 0.6% 98.6%  
132 1.2% 98%  
133 1.0% 97%  
134 2% 96%  
135 2% 94%  
136 2% 92%  
137 2% 90%  
138 3% 87%  
139 4% 84%  
140 5% 80%  
141 4% 75%  
142 6% 71%  
143 7% 64%  
144 6% 57%  
145 6% 52% Median
146 8% 46%  
147 5% 38%  
148 4% 33%  
149 5% 29%  
150 4% 24%  
151 3% 19%  
152 3% 16%  
153 4% 14%  
154 2% 10%  
155 2% 8%  
156 2% 6%  
157 1.2% 4%  
158 0.9% 3%  
159 0.7% 2%  
160 0.5% 1.4%  
161 0.3% 0.9%  
162 0.2% 0.6%  
163 0.2% 0.5%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.4% 99.5%  
108 0.5% 99.0%  
109 1.0% 98.5%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 95%  
113 2% 93%  
114 3% 91%  
115 3% 88%  
116 4% 86%  
117 5% 82%  
118 6% 77%  
119 6% 72%  
120 6% 66%  
121 7% 59%  
122 8% 53% Median
123 8% 44%  
124 6% 36%  
125 5% 31%  
126 5% 26%  
127 4% 21%  
128 3% 16%  
129 2% 14%  
130 2% 11%  
131 2% 9%  
132 2% 7%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.3% 4%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.0%  
138 0.2% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.2% 98.5%  
53 1.4% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 6% 84%  
58 7% 78%  
59 8% 70%  
60 8% 63%  
61 7% 54% Median
62 8% 47%  
63 9% 39%  
64 6% 30%  
65 6% 24%  
66 6% 18%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.3% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.1% 98.5%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 5% 90%  
57 6% 85%  
58 6% 79%  
59 8% 73%  
60 10% 64%  
61 9% 55% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 7% 37%  
64 8% 30%  
65 5% 21%  
66 5% 16%  
67 3% 11%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.4%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.1%  
45 1.3% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 7% 82%  
51 7% 75%  
52 9% 68%  
53 9% 59%  
54 10% 50% Median
55 9% 41%  
56 7% 31%  
57 7% 24%  
58 5% 18%  
59 4% 12%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.3%  
42 1.4% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 5% 92%  
46 5% 88% Last Result
47 8% 82%  
48 8% 74%  
49 10% 66%  
50 10% 56% Median
51 8% 46%  
52 10% 38%  
53 7% 28%  
54 5% 21%  
55 5% 15%  
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.1% 3%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 524–542 522–545 519–547 515–551
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 465 100% 455–475 452–478 450–480 445–485
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 442 100% 432–452 428–455 426–457 421–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 412 100% 401–422 398–425 396–427 391–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 378–399 375–402 372–404 367–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 381 99.9% 371–392 368–395 365–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 328 0.1% 317–338 314–341 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 328 0.1% 317–338 314–341 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 310–330 307–334 304–336 299–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 321 0% 310–331 307–333 304–336 299–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 257–277 254–280 251–283 246–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 174–192 171–195 169–197 165–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 166–184 164–187 161–190 157–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.9%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.1% 99.7%  
515 0.3% 99.6%  
516 0.2% 99.3%  
517 0.5% 99.1%  
518 0.5% 98.6%  
519 0.7% 98%  
520 1.2% 97%  
521 0.9% 96%  
522 2% 95%  
523 2% 94%  
524 2% 91%  
525 3% 89%  
526 3% 86%  
527 4% 83%  
528 4% 79%  
529 5% 75%  
530 5% 70%  
531 6% 65%  
532 4% 59%  
533 5% 55% Median
534 6% 49%  
535 5% 43%  
536 5% 38%  
537 5% 33%  
538 5% 28%  
539 4% 22%  
540 2% 18%  
541 4% 16%  
542 2% 12%  
543 2% 9%  
544 2% 7%  
545 1.1% 5%  
546 1.3% 4%  
547 0.8% 3%  
548 0.7% 2%  
549 0.3% 1.4%  
550 0.4% 1.1%  
551 0.3% 0.7%  
552 0.2% 0.5%  
553 0.1% 0.3%  
554 0.1% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.2% 99.7%  
445 0.2% 99.5%  
446 0.2% 99.3%  
447 0.4% 99.1%  
448 0.4% 98.7%  
449 0.6% 98%  
450 0.6% 98%  
451 1.1% 97%  
452 1.5% 96%  
453 1.5% 94%  
454 2% 93%  
455 2% 91%  
456 2% 89%  
457 3% 87%  
458 3% 84%  
459 4% 80%  
460 4% 76%  
461 4% 72%  
462 6% 68%  
463 3% 62%  
464 5% 58%  
465 6% 53% Median
466 6% 47%  
467 4% 41%  
468 6% 37%  
469 4% 31%  
470 4% 27%  
471 4% 23%  
472 3% 19%  
473 3% 16%  
474 3% 13%  
475 1.5% 10%  
476 2% 9%  
477 1.4% 6%  
478 1.2% 5%  
479 1.1% 4%  
480 0.5% 3%  
481 0.6% 2%  
482 0.5% 2%  
483 0.3% 1.1%  
484 0.2% 0.8%  
485 0.1% 0.5%  
486 0.2% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.2% 99.4%  
423 0.3% 99.2%  
424 0.4% 98.9%  
425 0.4% 98%  
426 0.7% 98%  
427 1.4% 97%  
428 1.0% 96%  
429 1.1% 95%  
430 1.3% 94%  
431 2% 93%  
432 2% 91%  
433 4% 88%  
434 3% 84%  
435 4% 81%  
436 3% 78%  
437 3% 74%  
438 3% 71%  
439 4% 68%  
440 5% 63%  
441 7% 59%  
442 5% 52% Median
443 5% 47%  
444 5% 42%  
445 5% 37%  
446 4% 32%  
447 4% 28%  
448 4% 24%  
449 4% 20%  
450 2% 17%  
451 3% 14%  
452 2% 11%  
453 2% 9%  
454 1.2% 7%  
455 1.3% 6%  
456 2% 5%  
457 0.7% 3%  
458 0.6% 2%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.4% 1.4%  
461 0.3% 1.0%  
462 0.3% 0.7%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.2% 99.5%  
392 0.2% 99.3%  
393 0.4% 99.1%  
394 0.5% 98.7%  
395 0.5% 98%  
396 0.9% 98%  
397 0.8% 97%  
398 1.4% 96%  
399 1.4% 95%  
400 2% 93%  
401 2% 92%  
402 3% 89%  
403 3% 86%  
404 3% 83%  
405 4% 80%  
406 3% 77%  
407 6% 74%  
408 3% 67%  
409 6% 65%  
410 4% 59%  
411 5% 55% Median
412 6% 50%  
413 4% 44%  
414 6% 40%  
415 4% 35%  
416 4% 30%  
417 4% 27%  
418 4% 23%  
419 4% 19%  
420 3% 15%  
421 2% 13%  
422 2% 11%  
423 2% 9%  
424 1.0% 6%  
425 1.4% 5%  
426 0.9% 4%  
427 0.8% 3%  
428 0.6% 2%  
429 0.4% 2%  
430 0.4% 1.3%  
431 0.3% 0.9%  
432 0.2% 0.7%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.3% 98.9%  
371 0.6% 98.6%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 1.2% 96%  
375 1.2% 95%  
376 0.9% 94%  
377 1.1% 93%  
378 3% 92%  
379 3% 88%  
380 3% 85%  
381 4% 82%  
382 3% 78%  
383 3% 75%  
384 3% 72%  
385 5% 69%  
386 4% 64%  
387 6% 61%  
388 7% 54% Median
389 4% 47%  
390 3% 43%  
391 4% 40%  
392 3% 35%  
393 4% 32%  
394 6% 28%  
395 4% 23%  
396 4% 19%  
397 2% 15%  
398 1.5% 13%  
399 2% 11% Last Result
400 2% 9%  
401 2% 8%  
402 2% 6%  
403 1.4% 4%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.5%  
408 0.3% 1.2%  
409 0.4% 0.9%  
410 0.2% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.6%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.3% 99.2%  
363 0.4% 98.9%  
364 0.6% 98.5%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 1.0% 97%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 1.1% 93%  
370 1.4% 92%  
371 2% 90%  
372 3% 89%  
373 4% 86%  
374 3% 82%  
375 3% 79%  
376 4% 76%  
377 5% 72%  
378 5% 67%  
379 4% 62%  
380 4% 58%  
381 5% 54% Median
382 4% 49%  
383 5% 45%  
384 6% 39%  
385 3% 34%  
386 4% 30%  
387 5% 27%  
388 3% 21%  
389 3% 18%  
390 2% 15%  
391 3% 13%  
392 2% 10%  
393 1.2% 8%  
394 2% 7%  
395 2% 5%  
396 0.9% 4%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.3%  
401 0.3% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.2% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.3% 99.3%  
309 0.4% 99.0%  
310 0.5% 98.6%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 0.9% 98%  
313 1.1% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 0.9% 94%  
316 2% 93%  
317 2% 91%  
318 2% 89%  
319 2% 87%  
320 3% 84%  
321 3% 82%  
322 5% 79%  
323 5% 74%  
324 4% 68%  
325 5% 64%  
326 4% 60%  
327 5% 55% Median
328 5% 51%  
329 6% 46%  
330 3% 40%  
331 4% 37%  
332 5% 33%  
333 3% 27%  
334 5% 25%  
335 2% 20%  
336 3% 18%  
337 2% 14%  
338 3% 12%  
339 2% 10%  
340 2% 8% Last Result
341 2% 6%  
342 1.1% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.3% 99.4%  
309 0.4% 99.1%  
310 0.5% 98.7%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.9% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 1.2% 93%  
317 2% 92%  
318 3% 90%  
319 2% 87%  
320 3% 85%  
321 3% 82%  
322 5% 79%  
323 4% 73%  
324 3% 70%  
325 6% 66%  
326 5% 61%  
327 4% 55%  
328 5% 51% Median
329 4% 46%  
330 4% 42%  
331 5% 38%  
332 5% 33%  
333 4% 28%  
334 3% 24%  
335 3% 21%  
336 4% 18%  
337 3% 14%  
338 2% 11%  
339 1.4% 10%  
340 1.1% 8%  
341 2% 7%  
342 1.1% 5%  
343 1.0% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.4% 1.5%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
301 0.3% 99.2%  
302 0.4% 98.9%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 1.4% 97%  
307 1.2% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 2% 91%  
311 3% 89%  
312 3% 86%  
313 3% 83%  
314 3% 80%  
315 4% 76%  
316 5% 72%  
317 5% 68%  
318 3% 63%  
319 5% 59%  
320 6% 54%  
321 5% 48% Median
322 4% 43%  
323 4% 39%  
324 6% 35%  
325 5% 29%  
326 3% 25%  
327 4% 22%  
328 2% 18%  
329 4% 16%  
330 2% 12%  
331 1.5% 10%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.4% 7%  
334 1.2% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.8% 3%  
337 0.8% 2%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.2%  
302 0.3% 98.9%  
303 0.6% 98.6%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 1.5% 97%  
306 0.7% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 1.4% 93%  
309 1.4% 92%  
310 2% 90%  
311 2% 88%  
312 3% 86%  
313 5% 84%  
314 4% 79%  
315 4% 74%  
316 4% 70%  
317 5% 66%  
318 4% 61%  
319 5% 57%  
320 2% 53% Median
321 8% 50%  
322 4% 43%  
323 5% 39%  
324 5% 34%  
325 5% 29%  
326 3% 23% Last Result
327 3% 21%  
328 2% 17%  
329 3% 16%  
330 2% 13%  
331 2% 10%  
332 1.4% 8%  
333 2% 7%  
334 0.8% 5%  
335 1.5% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.3% 99.5%  
248 0.3% 99.2%  
249 0.4% 98.9%  
250 0.5% 98.6%  
251 0.8% 98%  
252 0.8% 97%  
253 1.3% 96%  
254 1.1% 95%  
255 2% 94%  
256 2% 92%  
257 3% 90%  
258 3% 88%  
259 3% 85%  
260 4% 82%  
261 4% 78%  
262 4% 74%  
263 5% 70%  
264 4% 65%  
265 5% 61%  
266 4% 56%  
267 6% 52% Median
268 5% 46%  
269 5% 41%  
270 5% 36%  
271 4% 31%  
272 5% 27%  
273 3% 22%  
274 3% 19%  
275 3% 17%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 11%  
278 2% 9%  
279 2% 7%  
280 1.2% 5%  
281 1.0% 4%  
282 0.7% 3%  
283 0.7% 3%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.3%  
286 0.3% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.6%  
166 0.4% 99.4%  
167 0.4% 99.0%  
168 0.5% 98.5%  
169 0.7% 98%  
170 1.0% 97%  
171 2% 96%  
172 2% 95%  
173 2% 93%  
174 2% 91%  
175 3% 89%  
176 4% 85%  
177 4% 82%  
178 5% 78%  
179 5% 73%  
180 5% 68%  
181 4% 63%  
182 7% 58%  
183 6% 52% Median
184 5% 46%  
185 5% 41%  
186 6% 36%  
187 5% 31%  
188 4% 25%  
189 4% 22%  
190 3% 18%  
191 3% 14%  
192 3% 11%  
193 2% 9%  
194 2% 7%  
195 2% 5%  
196 1.0% 4%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.4% 1.5%  
200 0.3% 1.1%  
201 0.3% 0.8%  
202 0.2% 0.5%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.1%  
160 0.5% 98.7%  
161 0.8% 98%  
162 0.8% 97%  
163 1.3% 97%  
164 2% 95%  
165 2% 93%  
166 3% 92%  
167 2% 89%  
168 3% 87%  
169 3% 84%  
170 5% 81%  
171 4% 76%  
172 6% 72%  
173 5% 66%  
174 6% 60%  
175 6% 54%  
176 6% 48% Median
177 5% 43%  
178 6% 38%  
179 5% 32%  
180 4% 27%  
181 4% 23%  
182 4% 18%  
183 3% 15%  
184 3% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.3% 8%  
187 2% 6%  
188 1.1% 5%  
189 0.8% 3%  
190 0.8% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.2%  
193 0.3% 0.9%  
194 0.2% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations