Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–15 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.8% 26.5–29.1% 26.2–29.5% 25.9–29.8% 25.3–30.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.2% 16.1–18.3% 15.8–18.6% 15.6–18.9% 15.1–19.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.2% 16.1–18.3% 15.8–18.6% 15.6–18.9% 15.1–19.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.6% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.4–12.0% 9.0–12.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.1% 8.3–9.9% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.1% 7.4–8.9% 7.2–9.2% 7.0–9.4% 6.6–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 205 196–214 193–216 191–219 187–224
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 119–135 117–137 115–139 111–143
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 119–135 117–137 115–139 112–143
Alternative für Deutschland 94 79 72–85 70–87 69–89 66–92
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 61–73 60–75 58–77 56–80
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 53–67 52–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–50 39–51 38–53 36–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.3% 99.6%  
188 0.5% 99.3%  
189 0.4% 98.8%  
190 0.8% 98%  
191 0.9% 98%  
192 0.9% 97%  
193 1.1% 96%  
194 2% 95%  
195 2% 93%  
196 3% 92%  
197 3% 89%  
198 3% 86%  
199 5% 84%  
200 6% 79% Last Result
201 4% 73%  
202 8% 69%  
203 6% 61%  
204 5% 55%  
205 5% 50% Median
206 4% 46%  
207 5% 41%  
208 5% 36%  
209 4% 31%  
210 3% 27%  
211 4% 25%  
212 5% 20%  
213 3% 16%  
214 3% 13%  
215 3% 10%  
216 2% 7%  
217 0.9% 5%  
218 1.2% 4%  
219 0.8% 3%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.4% 2%  
222 0.2% 1.1%  
223 0.3% 0.9%  
224 0.2% 0.6%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0.1% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.5%  
113 0.6% 99.2%  
114 0.6% 98.6%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 1.1% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 3% 92%  
120 4% 89%  
121 4% 85%  
122 5% 81%  
123 6% 76%  
124 7% 71%  
125 5% 64%  
126 7% 58%  
127 6% 52% Median
128 6% 45%  
129 6% 39%  
130 6% 33%  
131 5% 27%  
132 5% 22%  
133 4% 17%  
134 3% 13%  
135 3% 10%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.4% 6%  
138 1.1% 4%  
139 0.9% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.4%  
142 0.3% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.3% 99.5%  
113 0.4% 99.2%  
114 0.7% 98.8%  
115 0.9% 98%  
116 1.0% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 3% 94%  
119 4% 92%  
120 4% 88%  
121 5% 84%  
122 6% 79%  
123 6% 74%  
124 7% 68%  
125 5% 61%  
126 6% 56%  
127 6% 50% Median
128 6% 44%  
129 7% 38%  
130 5% 32%  
131 5% 27%  
132 4% 22%  
133 4% 18%  
134 4% 14%  
135 2% 10%  
136 2% 8%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.3% 4%  
139 0.9% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.3%  
142 0.3% 0.9%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.4%  
68 0.8% 98.9%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 3% 92%  
73 4% 89%  
74 7% 85%  
75 6% 78%  
76 6% 72%  
77 8% 66%  
78 7% 58%  
79 8% 51% Median
80 8% 43%  
81 8% 35%  
82 5% 27%  
83 5% 22%  
84 5% 17%  
85 3% 12%  
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.3% 4%  
89 0.8% 3%  
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.1%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.1%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 92%  
62 5% 89%  
63 5% 83%  
64 9% 78%  
65 6% 70%  
66 10% 64%  
67 7% 54% Median
68 9% 46%  
69 6% 37%  
70 9% 31%  
71 5% 22%  
72 5% 18%  
73 3% 12%  
74 4% 10%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.3% 4%  
77 1.0% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.3%  
51 1.3% 98.8%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 5% 90%  
56 6% 85%  
57 9% 78%  
58 7% 69%  
59 10% 62%  
60 7% 52% Median
61 10% 45%  
62 7% 35%  
63 7% 28%  
64 6% 21%  
65 4% 15%  
66 3% 11%  
67 3% 7%  
68 1.5% 5%  
69 1.3% 3% Last Result
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.7% 99.5%  
37 1.2% 98.8%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 6% 93%  
41 6% 87%  
42 8% 81%  
43 12% 73%  
44 10% 62%  
45 9% 51% Median
46 10% 42% Last Result
47 9% 32%  
48 7% 24%  
49 5% 17%  
50 4% 12%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 503 100% 494–513 491–515 489–517 484–522
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 444 100% 434–454 431–456 429–459 423–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 444 100% 434–454 431–456 429–458 424–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 396 100% 385–406 382–408 380–411 375–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 376 99.7% 367–387 363–389 361–392 356–397
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 366–387 363–390 361–392 356–397
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 328 0.1% 318–339 315–341 313–344 308–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 321 0% 311–331 308–333 305–336 300–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 307–327 304–330 302–333 297–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0% 303–324 301–327 298–329 293–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 253 0% 244–264 241–266 239–269 234–274
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 194 0% 185–203 182–205 180–208 176–212
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 186 0% 178–196 175–198 173–201 169–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0.1% 99.9%  
481 0% 99.9%  
482 0.1% 99.8%  
483 0.1% 99.8%  
484 0.2% 99.7%  
485 0.3% 99.5%  
486 0.3% 99.2%  
487 0.4% 98.9%  
488 0.6% 98%  
489 0.9% 98%  
490 1.1% 97%  
491 1.1% 96%  
492 1.4% 95%  
493 2% 93%  
494 3% 91%  
495 3% 88%  
496 3% 86%  
497 4% 83%  
498 4% 79%  
499 5% 75%  
500 5% 70%  
501 4% 65%  
502 7% 61%  
503 5% 54%  
504 5% 49% Median
505 5% 44%  
506 6% 39%  
507 5% 33%  
508 4% 28%  
509 4% 24%  
510 3% 20%  
511 4% 17%  
512 3% 13%  
513 2% 10%  
514 2% 8%  
515 1.4% 6%  
516 1.0% 4%  
517 1.0% 3%  
518 0.7% 2%  
519 0.6% 2%  
520 0.4% 1.2%  
521 0.2% 0.8%  
522 0.2% 0.6%  
523 0.1% 0.4%  
524 0.1% 0.2%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.2% 99.7%  
424 0.2% 99.5%  
425 0.3% 99.3%  
426 0.3% 99.0%  
427 0.6% 98.7%  
428 0.6% 98%  
429 1.0% 98%  
430 1.0% 97%  
431 1.5% 96%  
432 1.3% 94%  
433 2% 93%  
434 2% 91%  
435 4% 89%  
436 4% 86%  
437 3% 82%  
438 4% 78%  
439 3% 74%  
440 4% 71%  
441 5% 67%  
442 5% 61%  
443 6% 56%  
444 5% 50% Median
445 5% 45%  
446 5% 40%  
447 5% 36%  
448 5% 31%  
449 4% 25%  
450 4% 21%  
451 2% 18%  
452 3% 15%  
453 2% 13%  
454 3% 11%  
455 2% 8%  
456 2% 6%  
457 1.1% 5%  
458 0.8% 3%  
459 0.5% 3%  
460 0.7% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.4%  
462 0.4% 1.1%  
463 0.3% 0.7%  
464 0.1% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.3% 99.6%  
425 0.3% 99.3%  
426 0.4% 99.0%  
427 0.5% 98.6%  
428 0.5% 98%  
429 0.8% 98%  
430 1.0% 97%  
431 1.4% 96%  
432 2% 94%  
433 2% 93%  
434 2% 90%  
435 2% 88%  
436 2% 86%  
437 4% 84%  
438 5% 80%  
439 5% 75%  
440 4% 71%  
441 6% 66%  
442 4% 60%  
443 4% 56%  
444 5% 52% Median
445 4% 46%  
446 4% 42%  
447 5% 38%  
448 5% 33%  
449 6% 29%  
450 4% 23%  
451 3% 18%  
452 2% 15%  
453 2% 13%  
454 2% 11%  
455 2% 9%  
456 2% 6%  
457 1.2% 4%  
458 0.8% 3%  
459 0.6% 2%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.3%  
462 0.3% 1.0%  
463 0.2% 0.7%  
464 0.2% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.3% 99.4%  
377 0.2% 99.1%  
378 0.7% 98.9%  
379 0.4% 98%  
380 0.7% 98%  
381 0.9% 97%  
382 2% 96%  
383 1.2% 95%  
384 2% 93%  
385 3% 92%  
386 2% 89%  
387 4% 88%  
388 4% 84%  
389 4% 80%  
390 3% 76%  
391 4% 73%  
392 3% 70%  
393 7% 66%  
394 4% 59%  
395 5% 55%  
396 5% 51% Median
397 5% 46%  
398 4% 41%  
399 7% 37%  
400 3% 31%  
401 2% 27%  
402 5% 25%  
403 3% 20%  
404 4% 17%  
405 3% 13%  
406 2% 11%  
407 2% 9%  
408 2% 7%  
409 1.2% 5%  
410 1.0% 4%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.8%  
416 0.2% 0.6%  
417 0.2% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.5%  
358 0.4% 99.3%  
359 0.5% 98.9%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 0.8% 98%  
362 1.0% 97%  
363 1.2% 96%  
364 1.3% 95%  
365 2% 94%  
366 1.3% 92%  
367 3% 90%  
368 3% 88%  
369 2% 85%  
370 4% 82%  
371 3% 78%  
372 5% 74%  
373 4% 69%  
374 6% 65%  
375 5% 59%  
376 5% 53%  
377 5% 48% Median
378 4% 43%  
379 4% 39%  
380 3% 35%  
381 4% 32%  
382 3% 28%  
383 5% 25%  
384 4% 20%  
385 3% 16%  
386 2% 13%  
387 2% 10%  
388 2% 8%  
389 2% 6%  
390 1.0% 5%  
391 1.2% 4%  
392 0.4% 3%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.4%  
396 0.3% 1.0%  
397 0.3% 0.7%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.4% 99.4%  
358 0.3% 99.1%  
359 0.4% 98.8%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 1.0% 98%  
362 0.6% 97%  
363 1.4% 96%  
364 1.2% 95%  
365 2% 94%  
366 2% 92%  
367 3% 90%  
368 3% 87%  
369 3% 84%  
370 3% 81%  
371 5% 78%  
372 4% 73%  
373 3% 69%  
374 5% 66%  
375 6% 62%  
376 5% 56%  
377 5% 50% Median
378 4% 46%  
379 5% 42%  
380 4% 37%  
381 4% 33%  
382 5% 29%  
383 4% 24%  
384 3% 20%  
385 4% 17%  
386 3% 13%  
387 1.5% 10%  
388 2% 9%  
389 2% 7%  
390 2% 5%  
391 0.8% 4%  
392 0.8% 3%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.3%  
396 0.3% 0.8%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.6%  
309 0.3% 99.4%  
310 0.4% 99.1%  
311 0.6% 98.7%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.7% 98%  
314 0.8% 97%  
315 1.2% 96%  
316 1.4% 95%  
317 1.4% 94%  
318 3% 92%  
319 3% 90%  
320 3% 86%  
321 3% 83%  
322 3% 80%  
323 4% 77%  
324 4% 73%  
325 6% 69%  
326 4% 63%  
327 4% 59%  
328 5% 55%  
329 4% 49% Median
330 5% 45%  
331 4% 40%  
332 4% 36%  
333 4% 32%  
334 4% 28%  
335 5% 24%  
336 4% 19%  
337 2% 16%  
338 2% 13%  
339 3% 11%  
340 2% 8% Last Result
341 2% 6%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 1.0% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.4% 1.2%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.3% 99.2%  
303 0.5% 98.9%  
304 0.7% 98%  
305 0.6% 98%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 1.2% 96%  
308 2% 95%  
309 2% 93%  
310 1.4% 92%  
311 3% 90%  
312 3% 87%  
313 3% 84%  
314 3% 81%  
315 4% 78%  
316 5% 74%  
317 4% 69%  
318 6% 65%  
319 4% 60%  
320 4% 55%  
321 5% 51% Median
322 5% 46%  
323 6% 41%  
324 5% 35%  
325 4% 30%  
326 3% 26%  
327 5% 23%  
328 2% 18%  
329 3% 16%  
330 3% 13%  
331 2% 11%  
332 1.3% 8%  
333 2% 7%  
334 0.9% 5%  
335 1.1% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.4% 99.3%  
299 0.3% 98.9%  
300 0.4% 98.6%  
301 0.5% 98%  
302 1.2% 98%  
303 1.1% 96%  
304 1.0% 95%  
305 1.1% 94%  
306 3% 93%  
307 3% 91%  
308 2% 88%  
309 3% 86%  
310 4% 83%  
311 5% 80%  
312 4% 74%  
313 4% 71%  
314 4% 67%  
315 7% 63%  
316 5% 57%  
317 4% 52% Median
318 5% 47%  
319 5% 43%  
320 5% 38%  
321 3% 33%  
322 5% 29%  
323 4% 25%  
324 3% 20%  
325 2% 17%  
326 3% 15% Last Result
327 3% 12%  
328 2% 9%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.9% 6%  
331 1.4% 5%  
332 0.9% 3%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.4% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.6% 98.9%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 1.0% 97%  
300 1.2% 96%  
301 2% 95%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 91%  
304 3% 89%  
305 4% 87%  
306 3% 83%  
307 5% 80%  
308 2% 75%  
309 3% 73%  
310 7% 69%  
311 4% 63%  
312 5% 59%  
313 5% 54%  
314 5% 49% Median
315 4% 45%  
316 7% 41%  
317 3% 34%  
318 4% 30%  
319 3% 27%  
320 4% 24%  
321 4% 20%  
322 4% 16%  
323 2% 12%  
324 3% 11%  
325 2% 8%  
326 1.2% 7%  
327 2% 5%  
328 0.9% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.7% 2%  
332 0.2% 1.1%  
333 0.3% 0.9%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.6%  
235 0.3% 99.4%  
236 0.3% 99.0%  
237 0.5% 98.8%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 1.2% 98%  
240 1.1% 96%  
241 0.9% 95%  
242 2% 94%  
243 2% 93%  
244 4% 91%  
245 2% 87%  
246 3% 85%  
247 4% 82%  
248 6% 79%  
249 4% 73%  
250 4% 69%  
251 4% 65%  
252 6% 60%  
253 6% 55%  
254 4% 49% Median
255 5% 45%  
256 5% 40%  
257 6% 34%  
258 3% 29%  
259 4% 25%  
260 3% 22%  
261 5% 18%  
262 2% 14%  
263 2% 12%  
264 2% 10%  
265 2% 8%  
266 2% 6%  
267 0.8% 4%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.8% 3%  
270 0.8% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.2%  
272 0.2% 1.0%  
273 0.2% 0.7%  
274 0.2% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0.1% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.2% 99.7%  
176 0.2% 99.5%  
177 0.2% 99.3%  
178 0.4% 99.1%  
179 0.6% 98.7%  
180 0.9% 98%  
181 1.2% 97%  
182 2% 96%  
183 2% 94%  
184 2% 93%  
185 2% 91%  
186 3% 89%  
187 4% 86%  
188 5% 82%  
189 4% 77%  
190 5% 73%  
191 5% 68%  
192 4% 63%  
193 5% 59%  
194 8% 54% Median
195 6% 46%  
196 7% 40%  
197 4% 34%  
198 4% 30%  
199 3% 26%  
200 5% 23%  
201 4% 18%  
202 4% 14%  
203 2% 10%  
204 2% 9%  
205 2% 7%  
206 1.0% 5%  
207 0.9% 4%  
208 0.8% 3%  
209 0.7% 2%  
210 0.5% 1.5%  
211 0.3% 1.0%  
212 0.2% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.4%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0.1% 0.2%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.3% 99.6%  
170 0.4% 99.3%  
171 0.6% 99.0%  
172 0.6% 98%  
173 0.8% 98%  
174 0.9% 97%  
175 1.3% 96%  
176 2% 95%  
177 2% 93%  
178 2% 91%  
179 5% 89%  
180 2% 84%  
181 5% 82%  
182 4% 77%  
183 6% 73%  
184 5% 67%  
185 5% 62%  
186 7% 57%  
187 4% 49% Median
188 6% 46%  
189 5% 40%  
190 4% 35%  
191 5% 31%  
192 4% 26%  
193 5% 22%  
194 4% 18%  
195 3% 13%  
196 2% 11%  
197 2% 8%  
198 2% 6%  
199 2% 5%  
200 0.7% 3%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.6% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.3%  
204 0.3% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.2% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations