Opinion Poll by Kantar, 11–17 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.7% 26.4–29.0% 26.0–29.4% 25.7–29.7% 25.1–30.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.4% 5.7–7.1% 5.5–7.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 209 199–218 196–221 194–223 189–228
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–151 133–155 130–157 127–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 113–129 111–131 109–133 105–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 62–74 60–76 59–78 56–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–66 53–68 51–70 49–73
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–68 51–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 48 43–54 41–55 40–57 38–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.2% 99.5%  
190 0.3% 99.4%  
191 0.4% 99.0%  
192 0.5% 98.7%  
193 0.6% 98%  
194 0.8% 98%  
195 1.2% 97%  
196 1.2% 96%  
197 2% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 2% 91%  
200 2% 88% Last Result
201 4% 86%  
202 4% 82%  
203 4% 78%  
204 4% 75%  
205 5% 70%  
206 5% 66%  
207 5% 60%  
208 5% 55%  
209 6% 50% Median
210 6% 44%  
211 5% 38%  
212 5% 33%  
213 4% 28%  
214 4% 23%  
215 4% 20%  
216 3% 16%  
217 2% 13%  
218 2% 11%  
219 2% 9%  
220 1.4% 7%  
221 1.2% 6%  
222 0.9% 4%  
223 1.0% 4%  
224 0.6% 2%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.5% 1.4%  
227 0.3% 0.9%  
228 0.2% 0.7%  
229 0.1% 0.5%  
230 0.1% 0.3%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.7%  
127 0.4% 99.5%  
128 0.5% 99.1%  
129 0.7% 98.6%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 0.9% 97%  
132 1.0% 97%  
133 2% 96%  
134 3% 93%  
135 4% 90%  
136 4% 86%  
137 3% 83%  
138 3% 80%  
139 2% 77%  
140 6% 74%  
141 7% 68%  
142 10% 61%  
143 5% 51% Median
144 7% 46%  
145 2% 39%  
146 4% 37%  
147 4% 33%  
148 7% 29%  
149 4% 22%  
150 5% 18%  
151 3% 13%  
152 1.4% 10%  
153 1.1% 8%  
154 2% 7%  
155 2% 6%  
156 1.2% 4%  
157 1.2% 3%  
158 0.5% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.1%  
160 0.1% 0.8%  
161 0.2% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.3%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0.1% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 99.0%  
108 0.8% 98%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 1.1% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 93%  
113 3% 91%  
114 4% 87%  
115 5% 83%  
116 5% 78%  
117 5% 73%  
118 6% 68%  
119 7% 62%  
120 6% 55% Median
121 6% 49%  
122 6% 44%  
123 6% 38%  
124 5% 32%  
125 4% 27%  
126 4% 22%  
127 4% 19%  
128 3% 15%  
129 3% 12%  
130 2% 9%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.4% 5%  
133 1.0% 3%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.3% 1.0%  
137 0.3% 0.7%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 0.7% 99.2%  
58 1.0% 98.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 5% 91%  
63 5% 86%  
64 6% 81%  
65 7% 75%  
66 7% 68%  
67 7% 60%  
68 10% 53% Median
69 7% 43%  
70 8% 36%  
71 6% 28%  
72 5% 22%  
73 5% 17%  
74 4% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.5% 4%  
78 0.8% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 99.3%  
51 1.4% 98.7%  
52 1.4% 97%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 93%  
55 5% 90%  
56 6% 85%  
57 6% 79%  
58 8% 73%  
59 8% 65%  
60 8% 57% Median
61 8% 49%  
62 9% 41%  
63 7% 32%  
64 6% 25%  
65 5% 19%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.5% 5%  
70 1.4% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 1.3% 98.7%  
52 1.3% 97%  
53 3% 96%  
54 2% 93%  
55 7% 91%  
56 4% 84%  
57 9% 80%  
58 5% 71%  
59 10% 66%  
60 7% 56% Median
61 10% 49%  
62 7% 39%  
63 7% 32%  
64 5% 24%  
65 5% 19%  
66 5% 15%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.2% 4% Last Result
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.2%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.3%  
40 1.3% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 3% 95%  
43 5% 92%  
44 5% 87%  
45 8% 82%  
46 9% 74% Last Result
47 9% 65%  
48 11% 55% Median
49 9% 44%  
50 8% 35%  
51 7% 28%  
52 5% 20%  
53 4% 15%  
54 4% 10%  
55 2% 7%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 521 100% 511–530 508–533 505–535 501–539
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 449–470 447–473 444–476 439–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 438 100% 427–448 424–451 421–453 417–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 400 100% 389–410 386–413 383–416 378–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 385 100% 374–395 370–398 368–401 363–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 366–388 364–391 361–393 356–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 325 0% 313–334 311–338 308–341 303–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0% 314–335 311–339 308–341 303–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 324 0% 314–336 311–338 308–340 303–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 306–327 303–331 300–333 296–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 264 0% 254–275 251–278 249–280 243–285
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 172–191 169–193 167–196 163–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 172–191 169–193 167–195 163–200

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.8%  
500 0.1% 99.8%  
501 0.2% 99.6%  
502 0.3% 99.4%  
503 0.3% 99.1%  
504 0.7% 98.8%  
505 0.8% 98%  
506 0.7% 97%  
507 0.9% 97%  
508 0.9% 96%  
509 1.3% 95%  
510 1.1% 93%  
511 3% 92%  
512 3% 90%  
513 4% 87%  
514 6% 83%  
515 5% 77%  
516 4% 72%  
517 5% 68%  
518 4% 64%  
519 4% 60%  
520 3% 56% Median
521 6% 53%  
522 4% 47%  
523 8% 43%  
524 7% 35%  
525 5% 28%  
526 4% 24%  
527 4% 19%  
528 3% 15%  
529 2% 12%  
530 2% 10%  
531 1.4% 8%  
532 2% 7%  
533 2% 5%  
534 1.1% 4%  
535 0.9% 3%  
536 0.6% 2%  
537 0.5% 1.3%  
538 0.3% 0.8%  
539 0.2% 0.5%  
540 0.1% 0.4%  
541 0.1% 0.3%  
542 0.1% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.7%  
439 0.2% 99.6%  
440 0.2% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.2%  
442 0.4% 99.0%  
443 0.4% 98.6%  
444 0.7% 98%  
445 0.8% 97%  
446 0.9% 97%  
447 1.2% 96%  
448 3% 95%  
449 2% 92%  
450 2% 89%  
451 2% 88%  
452 4% 85%  
453 3% 81%  
454 3% 78%  
455 3% 75%  
456 5% 71%  
457 4% 67%  
458 4% 63%  
459 5% 59%  
460 4% 53% Median
461 5% 49%  
462 5% 45%  
463 4% 40%  
464 5% 36%  
465 4% 31%  
466 3% 27%  
467 3% 24%  
468 6% 20%  
469 2% 14%  
470 2% 12%  
471 2% 10%  
472 2% 7%  
473 1.3% 6%  
474 1.0% 4%  
475 0.6% 3%  
476 0.8% 3%  
477 0.5% 2%  
478 0.5% 1.4%  
479 0.2% 0.9%  
480 0.2% 0.7%  
481 0.2% 0.5%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0.1% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.2% 99.5%  
418 0.2% 99.3%  
419 0.3% 99.1%  
420 0.6% 98.7%  
421 0.6% 98%  
422 0.6% 97%  
423 1.3% 97%  
424 1.0% 96%  
425 2% 95%  
426 1.5% 93%  
427 2% 92%  
428 3% 90%  
429 3% 86%  
430 2% 84%  
431 4% 81%  
432 4% 78%  
433 4% 74%  
434 5% 70%  
435 6% 65%  
436 3% 59%  
437 6% 56% Median
438 5% 50%  
439 5% 45%  
440 4% 40%  
441 4% 36%  
442 5% 32%  
443 4% 27%  
444 4% 23%  
445 3% 19%  
446 3% 16%  
447 2% 13%  
448 2% 11%  
449 2% 9%  
450 2% 7%  
451 1.3% 5%  
452 1.0% 4%  
453 0.8% 3%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.2%  
457 0.3% 0.9%  
458 0.2% 0.6%  
459 0.1% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.2% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.4%  
380 0.3% 99.2%  
381 0.5% 98.9%  
382 0.4% 98%  
383 0.7% 98%  
384 0.8% 97%  
385 1.0% 97%  
386 1.4% 96%  
387 1.2% 94%  
388 2% 93%  
389 2% 91%  
390 2% 89%  
391 3% 87%  
392 3% 84%  
393 4% 80%  
394 3% 77%  
395 4% 74%  
396 4% 69%  
397 6% 66%  
398 3% 60%  
399 5% 56%  
400 4% 52% Median
401 5% 47%  
402 5% 42%  
403 4% 37%  
404 5% 33%  
405 3% 29%  
406 5% 26%  
407 2% 21%  
408 3% 18%  
409 4% 16%  
410 2% 12%  
411 2% 10%  
412 2% 8%  
413 2% 6%  
414 0.9% 5%  
415 0.9% 4%  
416 0.7% 3%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.6% 2%  
419 0.3% 1.1%  
420 0.2% 0.8%  
421 0.2% 0.6%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.2% 99.8%  
363 0.2% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.4%  
365 0.2% 99.2%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.5% 98.6%  
368 0.9% 98%  
369 1.1% 97%  
370 1.3% 96%  
371 1.3% 95%  
372 1.3% 94%  
373 1.2% 92%  
374 3% 91%  
375 3% 88%  
376 3% 86%  
377 3% 83%  
378 3% 80%  
379 3% 77%  
380 4% 73%  
381 3% 70%  
382 4% 67%  
383 5% 63%  
384 6% 58%  
385 6% 52% Median
386 5% 46%  
387 4% 41%  
388 3% 37%  
389 4% 34%  
390 4% 30%  
391 5% 26%  
392 5% 21%  
393 2% 16%  
394 3% 14%  
395 1.4% 11%  
396 2% 10%  
397 1.4% 8%  
398 2% 7%  
399 1.1% 5%  
400 0.9% 4%  
401 0.6% 3%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.2% 1.2%  
405 0.3% 1.0%  
406 0.2% 0.7%  
407 0.2% 0.5%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.2% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0.3% 99.4%  
358 0.3% 99.1%  
359 0.4% 98.8%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 0.8% 98%  
362 0.6% 97%  
363 1.1% 96%  
364 1.4% 95%  
365 2% 94%  
366 2% 92%  
367 2% 90%  
368 3% 88%  
369 2% 85%  
370 4% 83%  
371 3% 79%  
372 4% 75%  
373 5% 72%  
374 4% 66%  
375 5% 62%  
376 5% 58%  
377 4% 53% Median
378 5% 48%  
379 3% 43%  
380 5% 40%  
381 5% 35%  
382 4% 30%  
383 4% 26%  
384 3% 22%  
385 4% 19%  
386 3% 15%  
387 2% 13%  
388 2% 11%  
389 1.3% 8%  
390 2% 7%  
391 1.1% 5%  
392 0.8% 4%  
393 0.9% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.3% 1.3%  
397 0.3% 1.0%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.4%  
305 0.3% 99.2%  
306 0.3% 98.9%  
307 0.6% 98.6%  
308 0.8% 98%  
309 0.8% 97%  
310 1.2% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 1.1% 93%  
313 3% 92%  
314 3% 89%  
315 2% 86%  
316 4% 84%  
317 3% 81%  
318 3% 78%  
319 3% 75%  
320 4% 72%  
321 4% 69%  
322 4% 64%  
323 5% 61%  
324 3% 55%  
325 4% 53% Median
326 8% 48%  
327 5% 40%  
328 4% 36%  
329 6% 32%  
330 4% 26%  
331 3% 21%  
332 3% 18%  
333 2% 15%  
334 3% 12%  
335 1.3% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.3% 7%  
338 1.0% 6%  
339 0.7% 5%  
340 1.1% 4% Last Result
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.4% 1.2%  
345 0.2% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.0%  
306 0.3% 98.8%  
307 0.5% 98%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 0.9% 97%  
310 1.1% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 1.4% 93%  
313 2% 92%  
314 1.4% 90%  
315 3% 89%  
316 2% 86%  
317 5% 84%  
318 5% 79%  
319 4% 74%  
320 4% 70%  
321 3% 66%  
322 4% 63%  
323 5% 59% Median
324 6% 54%  
325 6% 48%  
326 5% 42%  
327 4% 37%  
328 3% 33%  
329 4% 30%  
330 3% 27%  
331 3% 23%  
332 3% 20%  
333 3% 17%  
334 3% 14%  
335 3% 12%  
336 1.2% 9%  
337 1.3% 8%  
338 1.3% 6%  
339 1.3% 5%  
340 1.1% 4%  
341 0.9% 3%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.4%  
344 0.2% 1.0%  
345 0.2% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.6%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.3% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.4% 98.9%  
307 0.6% 98%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 1.0% 97%  
310 0.9% 96%  
311 2% 95%  
312 1.2% 94%  
313 2% 92%  
314 2% 90%  
315 2% 88%  
316 3% 86%  
317 3% 83%  
318 5% 79%  
319 3% 75%  
320 6% 72%  
321 4% 67%  
322 6% 63%  
323 3% 57% Median
324 5% 54%  
325 5% 49%  
326 3% 44%  
327 5% 40%  
328 3% 35%  
329 6% 32%  
330 2% 26%  
331 4% 24%  
332 3% 19%  
333 3% 17%  
334 2% 13%  
335 1.4% 12%  
336 3% 10%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 2% 6%  
339 1.2% 5%  
340 0.9% 3%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.5%  
344 0.3% 1.0%  
345 0.2% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.6%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.3%  
298 0.6% 99.1%  
299 0.3% 98.6%  
300 0.9% 98%  
301 0.7% 97%  
302 1.1% 97%  
303 1.2% 96%  
304 0.9% 94%  
305 2% 94%  
306 3% 91%  
307 3% 89%  
308 3% 86%  
309 2% 83%  
310 4% 81%  
311 2% 77%  
312 4% 75%  
313 6% 71%  
314 4% 65%  
315 5% 62%  
316 4% 56%  
317 6% 53% Median
318 3% 47%  
319 6% 44%  
320 4% 38%  
321 3% 33%  
322 6% 31%  
323 4% 25%  
324 3% 21%  
325 2% 18%  
326 3% 16% Last Result
327 4% 13%  
328 1.4% 9%  
329 2% 8%  
330 1.2% 6%  
331 1.3% 5%  
332 0.8% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.7% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.2%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.2% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.2% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.4%  
245 0.4% 99.3%  
246 0.3% 98.9%  
247 0.6% 98.6%  
248 0.4% 98%  
249 1.0% 98%  
250 1.5% 97%  
251 0.8% 95%  
252 2% 94%  
253 2% 92%  
254 3% 90%  
255 2% 87%  
256 2% 85%  
257 5% 83%  
258 5% 78%  
259 3% 73%  
260 4% 70%  
261 5% 66%  
262 5% 61%  
263 4% 56% Median
264 5% 52%  
265 4% 46%  
266 4% 42%  
267 5% 38%  
268 5% 33%  
269 3% 28%  
270 3% 25%  
271 3% 21%  
272 3% 18%  
273 3% 15%  
274 2% 12%  
275 2% 10%  
276 1.4% 8%  
277 1.2% 6%  
278 1.2% 5%  
279 0.9% 4%  
280 0.8% 3%  
281 0.7% 2%  
282 0.5% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.8%  
285 0.1% 0.6%  
286 0.2% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.5%  
164 0.4% 99.3%  
165 0.3% 98.9%  
166 0.8% 98.5%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 0.9% 97%  
169 1.4% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 2% 90%  
173 3% 88%  
174 4% 85%  
175 3% 81%  
176 6% 78%  
177 4% 72%  
178 5% 68%  
179 7% 63%  
180 4% 57% Median
181 7% 53%  
182 5% 46%  
183 6% 41%  
184 3% 35%  
185 5% 32%  
186 4% 27%  
187 3% 23%  
188 4% 20%  
189 3% 16%  
190 2% 13%  
191 2% 10%  
192 2% 8%  
193 2% 6%  
194 0.8% 5%  
195 1.1% 4%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 0.7% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.3%  
199 0.3% 0.9%  
200 0.2% 0.7%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.3% 99.5%  
164 0.3% 99.3%  
165 0.5% 99.0%  
166 0.6% 98.5%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 1.1% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 1.1% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 3% 92%  
173 4% 89%  
174 3% 84%  
175 5% 82%  
176 6% 77%  
177 4% 70%  
178 6% 66%  
179 5% 61%  
180 5% 55% Median
181 5% 50%  
182 4% 45%  
183 5% 41%  
184 5% 36%  
185 3% 31%  
186 5% 28%  
187 3% 23%  
188 3% 20%  
189 3% 17%  
190 3% 15%  
191 3% 12%  
192 2% 9%  
193 2% 7%  
194 2% 5%  
195 0.8% 3%  
196 0.6% 2%  
197 0.4% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.2%  
199 0.2% 0.8%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0.1% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations