Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 19–22 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.2% 26.0–28.5% 25.7–28.9% 25.3–29.2% 24.8–29.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.3% 5.6–7.0% 5.4–7.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 204 195–213 192–216 190–218 185–223
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 120–136 118–138 116–140 112–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 113–128 110–130 108–132 105–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 62–74 60–76 59–77 56–80
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 53–68 52–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 47 42–52 41–54 40–55 38–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.7%  
186 0.3% 99.5%  
187 0.4% 99.2%  
188 0.4% 98.9%  
189 0.8% 98%  
190 0.9% 98%  
191 1.2% 97%  
192 2% 96%  
193 1.2% 94%  
194 2% 93%  
195 3% 91%  
196 3% 87%  
197 4% 85%  
198 3% 81%  
199 5% 78%  
200 5% 73% Last Result
201 5% 68%  
202 6% 63%  
203 5% 57%  
204 5% 52% Median
205 6% 47%  
206 5% 41%  
207 6% 36%  
208 3% 29%  
209 4% 26%  
210 5% 22%  
211 3% 17%  
212 2% 14%  
213 2% 12%  
214 2% 9%  
215 2% 7%  
216 1.2% 6%  
217 1.3% 4%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.6% 2%  
220 0.8% 2%  
221 0.3% 1.1%  
222 0.3% 0.8%  
223 0.2% 0.6%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 0.5% 99.1%  
115 0.8% 98.5%  
116 1.1% 98%  
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 93%  
120 4% 91%  
121 3% 87%  
122 4% 83%  
123 5% 79%  
124 5% 74%  
125 7% 69%  
126 7% 62%  
127 7% 56% Median
128 6% 49%  
129 7% 43%  
130 6% 36%  
131 4% 30%  
132 5% 26%  
133 3% 21%  
134 4% 17%  
135 3% 13%  
136 3% 10%  
137 2% 8%  
138 1.4% 6%  
139 1.4% 4%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 0.7% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.2%  
143 0.3% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.6%  
106 0.5% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 98.9%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 1.5% 97%  
110 1.0% 96%  
111 3% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 4% 90%  
114 4% 86%  
115 4% 82%  
116 8% 78%  
117 4% 70%  
118 8% 66%  
119 6% 58%  
120 5% 52% Median
121 8% 47%  
122 4% 39%  
123 8% 35%  
124 4% 27%  
125 5% 23%  
126 4% 18%  
127 2% 14%  
128 4% 11%  
129 2% 7%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.4% 4%  
132 0.6% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.4%  
135 0.4% 0.9%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.5% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98.7%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 4% 92%  
77 5% 88%  
78 5% 83%  
79 5% 78%  
80 8% 73%  
81 7% 65%  
82 9% 58% Median
83 7% 48%  
84 7% 42%  
85 7% 34%  
86 6% 27%  
87 5% 21%  
88 5% 16%  
89 3% 12%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.5% 4%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 1.0% 98.8%  
59 1.5% 98%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 4% 91%  
63 5% 87%  
64 7% 82%  
65 7% 75%  
66 7% 68%  
67 9% 60%  
68 8% 51% Median
69 7% 42%  
70 7% 35%  
71 7% 28%  
72 5% 21%  
73 5% 16%  
74 3% 11%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.4%  
51 0.9% 98.8%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 90%  
56 6% 85%  
57 7% 79%  
58 8% 72%  
59 9% 64%  
60 9% 55% Median
61 8% 46%  
62 9% 38%  
63 7% 29%  
64 6% 22%  
65 4% 16%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3% Last Result
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 1.1% 98.9%  
40 2% 98%  
41 3% 96%  
42 5% 93%  
43 7% 88%  
44 7% 81%  
45 9% 74%  
46 9% 65% Last Result
47 10% 56% Median
48 9% 46%  
49 8% 38%  
50 8% 29%  
51 7% 21%  
52 5% 14%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 498 100% 489–508 486–510 484–513 479–517
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 447 100% 437–456 434–460 431–462 426–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 429–448 426–451 423–454 419–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 402 100% 391–411 388–414 386–417 381–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 379 99.9% 369–389 366–392 363–394 358–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 370 98% 360–381 357–383 356–386 351–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 334 0.5% 323–344 321–347 318–349 313–354
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 319 0% 309–329 306–332 303–334 298–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 315 0% 305–325 302–328 300–331 295–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 307 0% 298–318 295–321 292–323 287–328
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 238–257 235–261 233–263 228–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 188 0% 179–197 176–199 174–202 170–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 171–189 169–192 167–194 163–198

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 99.9%  
476 0.1% 99.9%  
477 0.1% 99.9%  
478 0.1% 99.8%  
479 0.2% 99.7%  
480 0.2% 99.5%  
481 0.2% 99.2%  
482 0.4% 99.0%  
483 0.6% 98.6%  
484 0.7% 98%  
485 0.7% 97%  
486 2% 97%  
487 1.3% 95%  
488 2% 93%  
489 1.4% 91%  
490 3% 90%  
491 3% 87%  
492 4% 84%  
493 3% 79%  
494 4% 76%  
495 5% 72%  
496 5% 67%  
497 5% 62%  
498 8% 58% Median
499 6% 49%  
500 3% 44%  
501 5% 40%  
502 6% 35%  
503 4% 29%  
504 3% 25%  
505 5% 22%  
506 3% 17%  
507 2% 14%  
508 3% 12%  
509 2% 9%  
510 2% 6%  
511 1.3% 5%  
512 0.8% 4%  
513 1.0% 3%  
514 0.5% 2%  
515 0.5% 1.4%  
516 0.2% 0.9%  
517 0.3% 0.7%  
518 0.1% 0.4%  
519 0.1% 0.3%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0.3% 99.7%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0.5% 99.1%  
429 0.4% 98.6%  
430 0.5% 98%  
431 0.4% 98%  
432 0.7% 97%  
433 0.8% 97%  
434 1.1% 96%  
435 2% 95%  
436 3% 93%  
437 3% 90%  
438 4% 88%  
439 6% 84%  
440 3% 78%  
441 3% 74%  
442 4% 71%  
443 4% 67%  
444 2% 64%  
445 3% 62%  
446 4% 58% Median
447 5% 54%  
448 8% 49%  
449 7% 42%  
450 6% 35%  
451 6% 29%  
452 4% 23%  
453 4% 19%  
454 2% 14%  
455 1.3% 13%  
456 1.5% 11%  
457 1.4% 10%  
458 1.4% 8%  
459 2% 7%  
460 1.1% 5%  
461 1.3% 4%  
462 1.0% 3%  
463 0.6% 2%  
464 0.5% 1.1%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.4% 99.4%  
421 0.3% 99.0%  
422 0.7% 98.7%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.7% 97%  
425 1.1% 97%  
426 1.4% 96%  
427 2% 94%  
428 2% 93%  
429 2% 90%  
430 3% 88%  
431 3% 85%  
432 3% 83%  
433 3% 80%  
434 4% 77%  
435 6% 72%  
436 3% 66%  
437 5% 63%  
438 5% 58%  
439 6% 53% Median
440 5% 47%  
441 6% 42%  
442 4% 36%  
443 5% 32%  
444 3% 27%  
445 4% 24%  
446 3% 19%  
447 3% 16%  
448 3% 13%  
449 2% 10%  
450 1.4% 8%  
451 2% 7%  
452 2% 5%  
453 0.8% 3%  
454 0.6% 3%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.5%  
457 0.4% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.2% 99.7%  
381 0.2% 99.5%  
382 0.2% 99.3%  
383 0.3% 99.1%  
384 0.4% 98.8%  
385 0.7% 98%  
386 0.8% 98%  
387 1.1% 97%  
388 1.2% 96%  
389 2% 95%  
390 1.4% 93%  
391 2% 91%  
392 3% 89%  
393 3% 87%  
394 3% 84%  
395 4% 81%  
396 4% 77%  
397 5% 73%  
398 3% 68%  
399 5% 65%  
400 4% 60%  
401 5% 56% Median
402 4% 50%  
403 6% 46%  
404 5% 39%  
405 4% 34%  
406 4% 30%  
407 5% 26%  
408 3% 21%  
409 3% 17%  
410 2% 14%  
411 2% 12%  
412 2% 10%  
413 2% 8%  
414 1.3% 6%  
415 1.3% 5%  
416 0.9% 4%  
417 0.8% 3%  
418 0.4% 2%  
419 0.4% 1.5%  
420 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.7%  
422 0.2% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.3% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.1%  
361 0.4% 98.8%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 0.6% 98%  
364 1.0% 97%  
365 1.0% 96%  
366 0.9% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 2% 92%  
369 3% 90%  
370 3% 87%  
371 3% 84%  
372 3% 81%  
373 4% 78%  
374 3% 73%  
375 6% 70%  
376 4% 64%  
377 4% 60%  
378 4% 56% Median
379 4% 52%  
380 6% 48%  
381 6% 42%  
382 5% 36%  
383 5% 31%  
384 3% 26%  
385 4% 23%  
386 4% 19%  
387 3% 16%  
388 2% 13%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 8%  
391 1.2% 7%  
392 2% 6%  
393 1.1% 4%  
394 0.9% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.4% 1.3%  
398 0.3% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 0.2% 99.2%  
354 0.7% 99.0%  
355 0.7% 98% Majority
356 1.1% 98%  
357 2% 96%  
358 1.4% 95%  
359 2% 94%  
360 2% 92%  
361 2% 89%  
362 1.5% 87%  
363 1.4% 86%  
364 2% 84%  
365 3% 83%  
366 4% 80%  
367 5% 76%  
368 6% 71%  
369 7% 64%  
370 9% 57%  
371 5% 48% Median
372 4% 43%  
373 4% 39%  
374 2% 35%  
375 2% 32%  
376 3% 30%  
377 3% 27%  
378 4% 25%  
379 4% 20%  
380 4% 16%  
381 4% 13%  
382 2% 9%  
383 3% 7%  
384 0.8% 4%  
385 0.9% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.2%  
391 0.3% 0.9%  
392 0.2% 0.7%  
393 0.2% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.2% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.3% 99.5%  
315 0.3% 99.2%  
316 0.4% 98.9%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.9% 98%  
319 0.7% 97%  
320 1.3% 96%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 4% 88%  
326 2% 84%  
327 4% 82%  
328 3% 78%  
329 5% 75%  
330 4% 70%  
331 5% 66%  
332 4% 61%  
333 6% 57% Median
334 5% 50%  
335 4% 46%  
336 6% 41%  
337 4% 35%  
338 4% 31%  
339 3% 26%  
340 4% 23% Last Result
341 3% 18%  
342 3% 16%  
343 2% 13%  
344 3% 11%  
345 1.0% 8%  
346 1.2% 7%  
347 2% 6%  
348 1.3% 4%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.6% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.3% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.2% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.2%  
301 0.5% 99.0%  
302 0.6% 98.5%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 1.0% 97%  
305 0.8% 96%  
306 2% 96%  
307 1.3% 94%  
308 2% 93%  
309 3% 90%  
310 2% 88%  
311 3% 85%  
312 3% 82%  
313 4% 79%  
314 5% 76%  
315 4% 71%  
316 5% 66%  
317 4% 61%  
318 4% 57%  
319 6% 53% Median
320 5% 47%  
321 5% 41%  
322 5% 37%  
323 4% 32%  
324 5% 28%  
325 4% 24%  
326 4% 20% Last Result
327 3% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.4% 7%  
332 1.4% 6%  
333 0.9% 4%  
334 1.0% 3%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.3% 99.4%  
297 0.3% 99.1%  
298 0.4% 98.8%  
299 0.6% 98%  
300 1.0% 98% Last Result
301 1.1% 97%  
302 1.5% 96%  
303 1.4% 94%  
304 1.3% 93%  
305 2% 92%  
306 2% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 4% 84%  
309 3% 80%  
310 5% 77%  
311 3% 72%  
312 4% 69%  
313 5% 64%  
314 6% 59%  
315 4% 53% Median
316 5% 49%  
317 5% 44%  
318 6% 39%  
319 4% 34%  
320 4% 30%  
321 4% 26%  
322 3% 22%  
323 4% 18%  
324 3% 15%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10%  
327 1.3% 8%  
328 2% 6%  
329 0.6% 4%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 0.8% 3%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.4%  
334 0.3% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 0.8%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.5%  
289 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
290 0.4% 98.9%  
291 0.4% 98.5%  
292 0.8% 98%  
293 0.9% 97%  
294 1.3% 96%  
295 1.3% 95%  
296 2% 94%  
297 2% 92%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 83%  
302 5% 79%  
303 4% 74%  
304 4% 70%  
305 5% 66%  
306 6% 61%  
307 4% 54% Median
308 5% 50%  
309 4% 44%  
310 5% 40%  
311 3% 35%  
312 5% 32%  
313 4% 27%  
314 4% 23%  
315 3% 19%  
316 3% 16%  
317 3% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 1.4% 9%  
320 2% 7%  
321 1.2% 5%  
322 1.1% 4%  
323 0.8% 3%  
324 0.7% 2%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.2%  
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.2% 99.4%  
230 0.4% 99.2%  
231 0.5% 98.8%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 1.2% 98%  
234 1.0% 97%  
235 0.9% 96%  
236 2% 95%  
237 2% 93%  
238 2% 91%  
239 2% 88%  
240 4% 86%  
241 3% 82%  
242 6% 79%  
243 3% 73%  
244 4% 70%  
245 5% 66%  
246 7% 61%  
247 4% 54% Median
248 6% 50%  
249 5% 44%  
250 4% 39%  
251 6% 35%  
252 4% 29%  
253 3% 25%  
254 3% 22%  
255 5% 19%  
256 2% 14%  
257 3% 12%  
258 1.3% 9%  
259 2% 8%  
260 1.0% 6%  
261 2% 5%  
262 0.6% 3%  
263 0.8% 3%  
264 0.5% 2%  
265 0.4% 1.4%  
266 0.3% 1.0%  
267 0.3% 0.7%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.2% 99.7%  
170 0.2% 99.5%  
171 0.3% 99.3%  
172 0.4% 99.0%  
173 0.6% 98.7%  
174 0.9% 98%  
175 0.9% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 1.4% 95%  
178 3% 93%  
179 2% 90%  
180 4% 88%  
181 4% 84%  
182 5% 81%  
183 4% 76%  
184 4% 72%  
185 4% 67%  
186 6% 63%  
187 6% 57%  
188 6% 51% Median
189 5% 46%  
190 5% 41%  
191 6% 36%  
192 6% 30%  
193 3% 24%  
194 4% 21%  
195 4% 17%  
196 3% 13%  
197 2% 10%  
198 2% 8%  
199 2% 6%  
200 1.0% 4%  
201 0.8% 3%  
202 0.6% 3%  
203 0.6% 2%  
204 0.4% 1.4%  
205 0.3% 1.0%  
206 0.2% 0.7%  
207 0.2% 0.5%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.3% 99.5%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.4% 98.9%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 1.0% 98%  
168 1.3% 97%  
169 1.4% 95%  
170 2% 94%  
171 2% 92%  
172 3% 89%  
173 4% 87%  
174 3% 83%  
175 5% 80%  
176 6% 75%  
177 6% 69%  
178 6% 63%  
179 5% 57%  
180 5% 53% Median
181 7% 48%  
182 5% 41%  
183 4% 36%  
184 4% 31%  
185 6% 27%  
186 4% 22%  
187 3% 18%  
188 3% 15%  
189 2% 12%  
190 3% 10%  
191 2% 7%  
192 1.2% 5%  
193 0.9% 4%  
194 0.9% 3%  
195 0.6% 2%  
196 0.5% 1.4%  
197 0.3% 1.0%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations