Opinion Poll by YouGov, 18–22 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.8% 25.4–28.3% 25.0–28.7% 24.7–29.0% 24.1–29.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–19.9% 15.6–20.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.2% 5.5–7.0% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 202 191–212 188–215 186–218 181–223
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 126–144 124–147 122–150 118–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 112–129 110–132 108–134 104–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–91 74–93 72–95 69–99
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–68 53–69 51–71 48–74
Die Linke 69 61 54–67 53–69 51–71 49–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 47 41–53 40–54 38–56 36–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.7%  
181 0.2% 99.6%  
182 0.3% 99.4%  
183 0.4% 99.2%  
184 0.6% 98.8%  
185 0.5% 98%  
186 0.7% 98%  
187 1.1% 97%  
188 1.0% 96%  
189 1.4% 95%  
190 2% 94%  
191 2% 92%  
192 2% 90%  
193 4% 88%  
194 3% 84%  
195 4% 81%  
196 4% 77%  
197 5% 73%  
198 4% 69%  
199 5% 65%  
200 5% 61% Last Result
201 5% 56%  
202 6% 51% Median
203 4% 45%  
204 4% 41%  
205 5% 37%  
206 4% 32%  
207 4% 28%  
208 3% 24%  
209 3% 20%  
210 3% 17%  
211 2% 14%  
212 2% 11%  
213 2% 9%  
214 1.5% 7%  
215 1.3% 6%  
216 0.9% 5%  
217 1.1% 4%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.4% 2%  
221 0.3% 1.2%  
222 0.3% 0.9%  
223 0.2% 0.6%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.5%  
119 0.3% 99.3%  
120 0.5% 99.0%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 1.2% 98%  
123 0.9% 96%  
124 1.5% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 3% 92%  
127 3% 89%  
128 3% 87%  
129 4% 84%  
130 4% 80%  
131 5% 75%  
132 5% 70%  
133 5% 65%  
134 7% 60%  
135 5% 53% Median
136 5% 48%  
137 4% 43%  
138 7% 39%  
139 4% 32%  
140 4% 28%  
141 5% 24%  
142 3% 19%  
143 3% 16%  
144 3% 13%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 2% 6%  
148 1.3% 5%  
149 0.9% 3%  
150 0.6% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.0%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.2%  
106 0.5% 98.9%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 1.4% 97%  
110 2% 95%  
111 2% 93%  
112 2% 91%  
113 3% 89%  
114 5% 86%  
115 4% 81%  
116 5% 77%  
117 4% 72%  
118 6% 68%  
119 7% 62%  
120 5% 56%  
121 7% 51% Median
122 5% 44%  
123 6% 39%  
124 5% 33%  
125 5% 28%  
126 5% 23%  
127 3% 19%  
128 4% 16%  
129 2% 12%  
130 3% 10%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.2% 6%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.7% 3%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.7%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 90%  
77 4% 87%  
78 5% 83%  
79 5% 78%  
80 8% 73%  
81 5% 65%  
82 7% 60%  
83 7% 53% Median
84 7% 46%  
85 7% 39%  
86 6% 32%  
87 4% 26%  
88 4% 22%  
89 4% 18%  
90 3% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.4% 5%  
94 1.2% 4% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 0.8% 99.0%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 2% 95%  
54 3% 93%  
55 4% 90%  
56 5% 86%  
57 8% 81%  
58 7% 74%  
59 8% 66%  
60 8% 58% Median
61 8% 50%  
62 7% 41%  
63 7% 34%  
64 5% 28%  
65 6% 23%  
66 3% 17%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.4% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 0.9% 99.0%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 1.1% 97%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 93%  
55 4% 89%  
56 5% 85%  
57 5% 80%  
58 8% 75%  
59 8% 67%  
60 8% 58%  
61 7% 50% Median
62 8% 43%  
63 8% 35%  
64 5% 28%  
65 5% 23%  
66 5% 17%  
67 3% 12%  
68 2% 10%  
69 3% 7% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.4% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.6%  
37 0.6% 99.3%  
38 1.3% 98.6%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 4% 93%  
42 6% 89%  
43 7% 83%  
44 7% 77%  
45 9% 70%  
46 9% 61% Last Result
47 10% 52% Median
48 7% 42%  
49 7% 34%  
50 6% 27%  
51 5% 21%  
52 5% 15%  
53 4% 11%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.2% 3%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 505 100% 494–515 491–518 488–521 483–526
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 434–456 430–459 427–462 422–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 418–441 416–445 412–447 407–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 381–404 377–407 375–410 369–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 384 99.9% 372–395 369–399 366–402 361–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 369 94% 358–381 354–384 352–387 346–392
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 332 0.6% 320–343 317–347 314–349 308–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 305–328 302–332 299–334 294–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 305–328 302–332 299–334 294–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 309 0% 298–321 295–324 292–327 286–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 245–267 242–270 239–273 234–279
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 171–191 168–195 166–197 161–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 172–192 168–194 166–197 161–202

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 99.9%  
479 0% 99.9%  
480 0.1% 99.9%  
481 0.1% 99.8%  
482 0.1% 99.7%  
483 0.2% 99.6%  
484 0.2% 99.5%  
485 0.3% 99.3%  
486 0.5% 99.0%  
487 0.6% 98.5%  
488 0.7% 98%  
489 0.8% 97%  
490 1.4% 96%  
491 1.3% 95%  
492 1.5% 94%  
493 2% 92%  
494 2% 91%  
495 3% 88%  
496 2% 85%  
497 3% 83%  
498 3% 80%  
499 4% 77%  
500 3% 73%  
501 4% 70%  
502 4% 66%  
503 4% 62%  
504 5% 58%  
505 6% 52% Median
506 4% 46%  
507 4% 42%  
508 5% 38%  
509 6% 33%  
510 4% 26%  
511 4% 22%  
512 3% 18%  
513 2% 15%  
514 2% 13%  
515 2% 11%  
516 2% 8%  
517 1.2% 7%  
518 1.1% 5%  
519 1.0% 4%  
520 0.6% 3%  
521 0.7% 3%  
522 0.6% 2%  
523 0.4% 1.4%  
524 0.3% 1.0%  
525 0.2% 0.7%  
526 0.2% 0.5%  
527 0.1% 0.3%  
528 0.1% 0.2%  
529 0.1% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.6%  
423 0.2% 99.4%  
424 0.4% 99.2%  
425 0.3% 98.8%  
426 0.4% 98%  
427 0.6% 98%  
428 0.7% 97%  
429 1.1% 97%  
430 0.9% 96%  
431 2% 95%  
432 1.3% 93%  
433 2% 92%  
434 3% 90%  
435 2% 87%  
436 3% 85%  
437 3% 83%  
438 3% 80%  
439 5% 77%  
440 2% 71%  
441 4% 69%  
442 5% 65%  
443 6% 60%  
444 3% 54% Median
445 5% 50%  
446 4% 46%  
447 6% 42%  
448 3% 36%  
449 3% 32%  
450 4% 29%  
451 4% 26%  
452 3% 22%  
453 3% 19%  
454 2% 16%  
455 3% 14%  
456 2% 11%  
457 2% 9%  
458 2% 7%  
459 1.4% 6%  
460 0.7% 4%  
461 1.2% 4%  
462 0.6% 3%  
463 0.5% 2%  
464 0.3% 1.5%  
465 0.3% 1.2%  
466 0.3% 0.8%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0.1% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.2% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.3%  
409 0.2% 99.2%  
410 0.5% 99.0%  
411 0.4% 98%  
412 0.8% 98%  
413 0.9% 97%  
414 0.3% 96%  
415 0.9% 96%  
416 1.2% 95%  
417 0.9% 94%  
418 3% 93%  
419 2% 90%  
420 2% 87%  
421 4% 85%  
422 2% 82%  
423 2% 79%  
424 5% 77%  
425 4% 72%  
426 5% 69%  
427 5% 64%  
428 2% 59%  
429 4% 57%  
430 4% 53% Median
431 3% 50%  
432 7% 46%  
433 7% 39%  
434 4% 33%  
435 5% 29%  
436 2% 24%  
437 2% 22%  
438 3% 20%  
439 3% 17%  
440 2% 14%  
441 3% 12%  
442 1.1% 9%  
443 1.3% 8%  
444 2% 7%  
445 0.8% 5%  
446 1.0% 4%  
447 1.2% 3%  
448 0.4% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.2% 1.1%  
451 0.2% 0.9%  
452 0.2% 0.8%  
453 0.2% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.4%  
371 0.4% 99.2%  
372 0.4% 98.9%  
373 0.4% 98.5%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0.8% 98%  
376 0.7% 97%  
377 1.1% 96%  
378 1.1% 95%  
379 1.4% 94%  
380 2% 92%  
381 2% 90%  
382 3% 88%  
383 2% 85%  
384 3% 83%  
385 4% 80%  
386 2% 77%  
387 3% 74%  
388 4% 72%  
389 6% 67%  
390 4% 61%  
391 4% 58%  
392 5% 54% Median
393 3% 49%  
394 6% 46%  
395 3% 40%  
396 5% 37%  
397 3% 31%  
398 3% 28%  
399 3% 25%  
400 4% 22%  
401 2% 18%  
402 2% 15%  
403 3% 13%  
404 2% 10%  
405 2% 9%  
406 1.2% 7%  
407 0.9% 6%  
408 1.2% 5%  
409 0.7% 4%  
410 0.7% 3%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.5% 1.3%  
414 0.2% 0.9%  
415 0.2% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.2% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.5%  
362 0.2% 99.3%  
363 0.3% 99.1%  
364 0.4% 98.8%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 0.7% 97%  
368 0.9% 97%  
369 1.3% 96%  
370 2% 94%  
371 1.2% 93%  
372 2% 91%  
373 3% 90%  
374 2% 87%  
375 2% 85%  
376 3% 83%  
377 4% 80%  
378 4% 76%  
379 4% 72%  
380 4% 69%  
381 3% 65%  
382 5% 62%  
383 3% 57%  
384 5% 54% Median
385 5% 49%  
386 7% 44%  
387 3% 37%  
388 4% 34%  
389 4% 31%  
390 4% 27%  
391 2% 23%  
392 2% 20%  
393 4% 18%  
394 3% 14%  
395 3% 11%  
396 1.0% 9%  
397 2% 8%  
398 1.1% 6%  
399 1.0% 5%  
400 0.6% 4%  
401 0.8% 4%  
402 0.9% 3%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.5%  
405 0.3% 1.2%  
406 0.3% 0.9%  
407 0.2% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 0.9% 98%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 1.3% 96%  
355 1.1% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 2% 92%  
358 1.3% 90%  
359 2% 89%  
360 3% 86%  
361 3% 83%  
362 4% 81%  
363 4% 76%  
364 3% 73%  
365 4% 69%  
366 4% 66%  
367 4% 61%  
368 4% 58%  
369 4% 53%  
370 4% 49% Median
371 4% 45%  
372 4% 40%  
373 6% 37%  
374 4% 31%  
375 4% 27%  
376 2% 23%  
377 3% 21%  
378 3% 18%  
379 2% 15%  
380 3% 13%  
381 2% 10%  
382 1.5% 9%  
383 1.5% 7%  
384 1.4% 6%  
385 1.0% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0.6% 2%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.2%  
391 0.3% 0.9%  
392 0.2% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1% Last Result
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.4%  
310 0.2% 99.3%  
311 0.4% 99.1%  
312 0.4% 98.7%  
313 0.6% 98%  
314 0.7% 98%  
315 0.8% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 1.1% 95%  
318 2% 94%  
319 1.4% 92%  
320 2% 91%  
321 2% 89%  
322 3% 87%  
323 2% 84%  
324 3% 82%  
325 3% 79%  
326 4% 75%  
327 5% 72%  
328 5% 67%  
329 4% 62%  
330 4% 58%  
331 3% 54%  
332 5% 51% Median
333 4% 46%  
334 3% 41%  
335 6% 38%  
336 3% 33%  
337 4% 29%  
338 3% 25%  
339 3% 22%  
340 3% 18% Last Result
341 2% 16%  
342 2% 14%  
343 2% 11%  
344 2% 9%  
345 2% 8%  
346 1.2% 6%  
347 1.1% 5%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 0.6% 3%  
350 0.6% 2%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.3%  
353 0.3% 1.1%  
354 0.3% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.6% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.4%  
296 0.5% 99.1%  
297 0.4% 98.7%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.7% 97%  
301 1.2% 96%  
302 0.9% 95%  
303 1.2% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 3% 90%  
307 2% 87%  
308 2% 85%  
309 4% 82%  
310 3% 78%  
311 3% 75%  
312 3% 72%  
313 5% 69%  
314 3% 63%  
315 6% 60%  
316 3% 54%  
317 5% 51% Median
318 4% 46%  
319 4% 42%  
320 6% 39%  
321 4% 33%  
322 3% 28%  
323 2% 26%  
324 4% 23%  
325 3% 20%  
326 2% 17%  
327 3% 15%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 1.4% 8%  
331 1.1% 6%  
332 1.1% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.8% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.5%  
338 0.4% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.3% 99.1%  
297 0.4% 98.8%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 1.0% 97% Last Result
301 1.2% 96%  
302 1.1% 95%  
303 1.0% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 89%  
307 2% 87%  
308 4% 85%  
309 2% 81%  
310 3% 79%  
311 4% 76%  
312 3% 71%  
313 4% 68%  
314 5% 64%  
315 5% 60%  
316 4% 55% Median
317 5% 51%  
318 3% 46%  
319 4% 43%  
320 4% 39%  
321 4% 35%  
322 6% 31%  
323 2% 25%  
324 3% 23%  
325 5% 20%  
326 2% 15%  
327 2% 13%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.1% 6%  
332 1.4% 5%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 0.8% 3%  
335 0.7% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.3% 99.5%  
288 0.2% 99.2%  
289 0.3% 99.0%  
290 0.5% 98.7%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 0.9% 97%  
294 0.8% 96%  
295 1.4% 95%  
296 1.2% 94%  
297 2% 93%  
298 2% 91%  
299 2% 89%  
300 3% 86%  
301 3% 83%  
302 3% 81%  
303 3% 77%  
304 5% 74%  
305 5% 69%  
306 3% 65%  
307 4% 62%  
308 3% 58%  
309 6% 54% Median
310 5% 49%  
311 3% 44%  
312 6% 42%  
313 4% 36%  
314 4% 32%  
315 3% 28%  
316 4% 24%  
317 3% 21%  
318 2% 18%  
319 3% 16%  
320 1.5% 13%  
321 2% 11%  
322 2% 9%  
323 1.2% 7%  
324 1.3% 6%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 0.8% 4% Last Result
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.2% 1.2%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.4%  
236 0.2% 99.2%  
237 0.6% 99.0%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 1.1% 98%  
240 0.7% 97%  
241 1.1% 96%  
242 1.0% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 1.4% 93%  
245 3% 91%  
246 2% 88%  
247 4% 86%  
248 3% 83%  
249 3% 80%  
250 3% 77%  
251 3% 74%  
252 6% 71%  
253 5% 65%  
254 4% 60%  
255 5% 56%  
256 4% 51% Median
257 4% 48%  
258 4% 44%  
259 4% 39%  
260 5% 35%  
261 5% 31%  
262 5% 26%  
263 2% 21%  
264 2% 19%  
265 2% 17%  
266 2% 14%  
267 2% 12%  
268 3% 10%  
269 1.1% 7%  
270 1.3% 6%  
271 0.8% 5%  
272 0.7% 4%  
273 0.7% 3%  
274 0.6% 2%  
275 0.6% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.2%  
277 0.2% 0.9%  
278 0.2% 0.7%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.3% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.2%  
164 0.4% 98.9%  
165 0.7% 98.5%  
166 0.8% 98%  
167 0.8% 97%  
168 1.3% 96%  
169 1.4% 95%  
170 2% 94%  
171 2% 92%  
172 3% 90%  
173 3% 87%  
174 3% 84%  
175 4% 81%  
176 3% 77%  
177 5% 73%  
178 3% 68%  
179 6% 65%  
180 6% 59%  
181 4% 53%  
182 7% 49% Median
183 4% 43%  
184 5% 39%  
185 5% 34%  
186 3% 29%  
187 4% 26%  
188 5% 22%  
189 3% 17%  
190 3% 15%  
191 2% 12%  
192 2% 10%  
193 1.3% 8%  
194 2% 7%  
195 1.2% 5%  
196 0.8% 4%  
197 1.0% 3%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.2% 1.1%  
201 0.3% 0.9%  
202 0.2% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.3% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.2%  
164 0.5% 99.0%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 0.8% 98%  
167 0.9% 97%  
168 1.2% 96%  
169 1.5% 95%  
170 2% 93%  
171 2% 92%  
172 3% 90%  
173 3% 87%  
174 3% 84%  
175 4% 81%  
176 3% 77%  
177 5% 73%  
178 4% 68%  
179 5% 64%  
180 5% 59%  
181 5% 54% Median
182 4% 48%  
183 4% 44%  
184 7% 40%  
185 4% 33%  
186 4% 29%  
187 5% 26%  
188 3% 21%  
189 3% 18%  
190 3% 15%  
191 2% 12%  
192 2% 10%  
193 2% 8%  
194 1.4% 6%  
195 1.2% 5%  
196 0.9% 4%  
197 0.6% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.2%  
201 0.2% 0.9%  
202 0.2% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations