Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–24 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.6% 26.3–29.0% 25.9–29.4% 25.6–29.7% 25.0–30.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.5–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.4% 5.7–7.2% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.6% 5.0–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 208 198–218 196–221 193–223 188–228
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 126–144 125–147 123–150 119–153
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–128 110–130 109–134 104–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 62–74 60–77 59–78 56–81
Die Linke 69 68 62–75 60–76 58–78 56–81
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 54–67 53–69 52–71 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 43–54 42–55 40–56 37–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.2% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.6%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0.4% 99.3%  
191 0.7% 98.9%  
192 0.5% 98%  
193 0.4% 98%  
194 0.3% 97%  
195 1.2% 97%  
196 3% 96%  
197 3% 93%  
198 0.9% 90%  
199 0.6% 89%  
200 2% 89% Last Result
201 3% 86%  
202 8% 83%  
203 3% 75%  
204 4% 72%  
205 4% 68%  
206 5% 65%  
207 10% 60%  
208 5% 50% Median
209 3% 45%  
210 6% 42%  
211 4% 36%  
212 5% 33%  
213 4% 28%  
214 3% 23%  
215 5% 20%  
216 1.4% 15%  
217 1.2% 13%  
218 4% 12%  
219 1.4% 8%  
220 0.8% 7%  
221 1.5% 6%  
222 1.0% 5%  
223 2% 3%  
224 0.6% 2%  
225 0.3% 1.1%  
226 0.1% 0.9%  
227 0.1% 0.7%  
228 0.2% 0.6%  
229 0.1% 0.4%  
230 0.2% 0.3%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.5%  
121 0.5% 99.0%  
122 0.4% 98%  
123 0.7% 98%  
124 1.3% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 5% 94%  
127 3% 89%  
128 2% 86%  
129 5% 84%  
130 4% 79%  
131 4% 75%  
132 5% 71%  
133 3% 66%  
134 10% 63%  
135 4% 53% Median
136 3% 49%  
137 5% 45%  
138 4% 40%  
139 10% 36%  
140 6% 26%  
141 3% 19%  
142 4% 16%  
143 2% 12%  
144 3% 11%  
145 1.2% 8%  
146 2% 7%  
147 0.9% 5%  
148 0.8% 5%  
149 0.6% 4%  
150 0.9% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.9% 2%  
153 0.5% 0.8%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.7% 99.3%  
107 0.3% 98.7%  
108 0.5% 98%  
109 2% 98%  
110 2% 96%  
111 1.2% 94%  
112 3% 93%  
113 5% 90%  
114 2% 85%  
115 5% 83%  
116 4% 77%  
117 12% 74%  
118 5% 62%  
119 3% 57%  
120 4% 53% Median
121 9% 49%  
122 4% 40%  
123 5% 37%  
124 9% 32%  
125 3% 23%  
126 6% 20%  
127 2% 14%  
128 3% 12%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.7% 5%  
132 0.8% 4%  
133 0.3% 3%  
134 0.4% 3%  
135 1.2% 2%  
136 0.2% 1.1%  
137 0.3% 0.9%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.2% 99.5%  
57 0.3% 99.3%  
58 1.2% 98.9%  
59 0.4% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 1.0% 93%  
62 7% 92%  
63 5% 85%  
64 6% 80%  
65 6% 74%  
66 3% 68%  
67 10% 65%  
68 8% 55% Median
69 9% 47%  
70 6% 38%  
71 5% 32%  
72 6% 26%  
73 3% 21%  
74 8% 18%  
75 2% 10%  
76 2% 8%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.2% 1.0%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 1.2% 99.2%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 1.0% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 5% 92%  
63 4% 87%  
64 5% 83%  
65 6% 78%  
66 15% 72%  
67 6% 57%  
68 4% 51% Median
69 7% 47% Last Result
70 4% 39%  
71 14% 35%  
72 3% 21%  
73 5% 18%  
74 2% 13%  
75 3% 11%  
76 3% 8%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 0.9% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 6% 90%  
56 4% 83%  
57 5% 79%  
58 4% 74%  
59 5% 71%  
60 17% 65% Median
61 8% 48%  
62 7% 40%  
63 6% 33%  
64 5% 27%  
65 8% 22%  
66 3% 15%  
67 5% 12%  
68 1.5% 7%  
69 1.1% 5%  
70 1.2% 4%  
71 0.7% 3%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.5%  
39 0.8% 98.7%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 1.0% 97%  
42 3% 96%  
43 6% 94%  
44 8% 88%  
45 10% 79%  
46 3% 69% Last Result
47 4% 66%  
48 6% 62%  
49 16% 56% Median
50 12% 40%  
51 5% 28%  
52 2% 23%  
53 9% 21%  
54 4% 12%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.2% 1.3%  
59 0.2% 1.1%  
60 0.5% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 503–523 500–526 496–527 492–531
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 443–463 439–465 436–467 432–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 437 100% 426–447 424–451 422–454 416–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 392 100% 381–402 379–403 375–407 371–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 100% 375–397 371–401 370–401 363–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 365–387 363–391 361–393 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 325 0% 315–336 310–338 308–340 302–346
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0% 312–334 308–338 308–339 303–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 306–327 303–332 301–332 296–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 316 0% 307–327 302–330 300–332 296–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 244–266 242–270 240–271 236–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 179–199 176–200 174–202 171–209
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 171–190 168–193 167–196 163–200

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 99.9%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.8%  
492 0.4% 99.8%  
493 0.5% 99.4%  
494 0.1% 99.0%  
495 0.5% 98.9%  
496 0.9% 98%  
497 0.1% 97%  
498 0.5% 97%  
499 1.2% 97%  
500 1.3% 96%  
501 0.9% 94%  
502 3% 93%  
503 3% 90%  
504 2% 87%  
505 4% 85%  
506 3% 82%  
507 6% 79%  
508 3% 72%  
509 11% 69%  
510 2% 58%  
511 2% 56%  
512 5% 54% Median
513 9% 49%  
514 1.3% 40%  
515 1.5% 39%  
516 13% 37%  
517 5% 24%  
518 0.8% 19%  
519 2% 19%  
520 5% 17%  
521 1.0% 12%  
522 0.5% 11%  
523 3% 10%  
524 0.8% 7%  
525 0.6% 6%  
526 3% 6%  
527 0.7% 3%  
528 0.1% 2%  
529 0.1% 2%  
530 1.5% 2%  
531 0.1% 0.5%  
532 0.1% 0.4%  
533 0.1% 0.3%  
534 0.1% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.6%  
432 0.3% 99.5%  
433 0.3% 99.2%  
434 0.4% 98.9%  
435 0.2% 98.5%  
436 0.9% 98%  
437 0.4% 97%  
438 0.8% 97%  
439 2% 96%  
440 2% 94%  
441 0.8% 92%  
442 1.0% 91%  
443 3% 90%  
444 3% 87%  
445 7% 84%  
446 3% 77%  
447 4% 74%  
448 4% 70%  
449 4% 66%  
450 3% 62%  
451 4% 59%  
452 2% 55% Median
453 6% 53%  
454 2% 47%  
455 4% 45%  
456 4% 40%  
457 3% 36%  
458 4% 33%  
459 9% 28%  
460 1.3% 19%  
461 5% 17%  
462 0.9% 12%  
463 4% 11%  
464 2% 8%  
465 1.1% 5%  
466 2% 4%  
467 0.5% 3%  
468 0.7% 2%  
469 0.2% 2%  
470 0.4% 1.4%  
471 0.3% 1.0%  
472 0.1% 0.7%  
473 0.1% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.5%  
475 0.2% 0.4%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0.1% 0.2%  
478 0.1% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.2% 99.8%  
416 0.2% 99.6%  
417 0.3% 99.4%  
418 0.4% 99.1%  
419 0.1% 98.7%  
420 0.5% 98.6%  
421 0.4% 98%  
422 0.6% 98%  
423 1.2% 97%  
424 2% 96%  
425 0.7% 94%  
426 4% 94%  
427 0.9% 90%  
428 3% 89%  
429 3% 86%  
430 3% 83%  
431 4% 80%  
432 4% 76%  
433 3% 72%  
434 3% 69%  
435 7% 66%  
436 5% 59%  
437 10% 54% Median
438 2% 44%  
439 5% 42%  
440 2% 37%  
441 5% 35%  
442 2% 31%  
443 6% 29%  
444 3% 23%  
445 3% 20%  
446 4% 17%  
447 3% 13%  
448 2% 10%  
449 1.0% 8%  
450 2% 7%  
451 1.2% 6%  
452 1.2% 5%  
453 0.5% 3%  
454 1.1% 3%  
455 0.3% 2%  
456 0.5% 2%  
457 0.4% 1.1%  
458 0.2% 0.7%  
459 0.1% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.4% 99.5%  
372 0.1% 99.1%  
373 0.3% 99.0%  
374 0.9% 98.6%  
375 0.3% 98%  
376 1.1% 97%  
377 1.0% 96%  
378 0.2% 95%  
379 1.3% 95%  
380 0.8% 94%  
381 4% 93%  
382 0.4% 89%  
383 3% 89%  
384 3% 86%  
385 10% 84%  
386 5% 73%  
387 2% 68%  
388 3% 66%  
389 5% 63%  
390 4% 58%  
391 3% 53%  
392 2% 51% Median
393 0.7% 48%  
394 4% 48%  
395 7% 44%  
396 0.9% 37%  
397 5% 36%  
398 6% 31%  
399 9% 25%  
400 1.4% 16%  
401 4% 15%  
402 2% 11%  
403 4% 9%  
404 0.5% 5%  
405 0.1% 4%  
406 0.6% 4%  
407 1.3% 3%  
408 0.2% 2%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.4% 1.5%  
411 0% 1.1%  
412 0.4% 1.1%  
413 0.3% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.3% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.3%  
365 0.5% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 98.8%  
367 0.3% 98.5%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 2% 98%  
371 2% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 0.9% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 1.2% 90%  
376 4% 89%  
377 3% 85%  
378 7% 82%  
379 1.2% 75%  
380 3% 74%  
381 2% 71%  
382 1.3% 69%  
383 4% 68%  
384 3% 64%  
385 9% 61% Median
386 8% 52%  
387 8% 45%  
388 4% 36%  
389 6% 32%  
390 3% 27%  
391 2% 23%  
392 4% 21%  
393 2% 17%  
394 2% 15%  
395 0.8% 13%  
396 2% 12%  
397 2% 11%  
398 1.2% 9%  
399 2% 8%  
400 0.5% 6%  
401 3% 5%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.6% 1.4%  
405 0.2% 0.8%  
406 0.2% 0.6%  
407 0% 0.5%  
408 0.2% 0.4%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0.1% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.3% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.3%  
358 0.2% 99.1%  
359 0.7% 98.9%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 2% 98%  
362 0.6% 96%  
363 1.2% 95%  
364 3% 94%  
365 1.4% 91%  
366 3% 89%  
367 1.4% 87%  
368 1.4% 85%  
369 2% 84%  
370 2% 82%  
371 5% 80%  
372 5% 75%  
373 2% 70%  
374 2% 68%  
375 10% 66%  
376 5% 57%  
377 9% 52% Median
378 3% 43%  
379 1.3% 40%  
380 6% 39%  
381 7% 33%  
382 4% 26%  
383 4% 22%  
384 2% 18%  
385 3% 16%  
386 2% 13%  
387 2% 11%  
388 2% 9%  
389 0.9% 7%  
390 0.5% 6%  
391 0.9% 5%  
392 2% 4%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.3% 2%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.5% 1.4%  
398 0.4% 0.9%  
399 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.3% 99.7%  
303 0% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.4% 99.3%  
306 0.5% 98.9%  
307 0.7% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 1.3% 97%  
310 2% 96%  
311 0.8% 94%  
312 0.8% 93%  
313 0.9% 92%  
314 1.4% 92%  
315 2% 90%  
316 2% 88%  
317 4% 86%  
318 3% 83%  
319 6% 80%  
320 5% 74%  
321 4% 69%  
322 3% 65%  
323 1.2% 61%  
324 6% 60%  
325 8% 54% Median
326 4% 46%  
327 11% 42%  
328 3% 31%  
329 3% 28%  
330 2% 24%  
331 4% 22%  
332 2% 19%  
333 1.3% 16%  
334 0.3% 15%  
335 3% 15%  
336 3% 12%  
337 3% 9%  
338 2% 6%  
339 0.3% 4%  
340 1.3% 4% Last Result
341 0.8% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.4%  
343 0.2% 1.2%  
344 0.2% 1.1%  
345 0.2% 0.9%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.2% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.2% 99.4%  
305 0.6% 99.2%  
306 0.5% 98.6%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 3% 98%  
309 0.5% 95%  
310 2% 94%  
311 1.2% 92%  
312 2% 91%  
313 2% 89%  
314 0.8% 88%  
315 2% 87%  
316 2% 85%  
317 4% 83%  
318 2% 79%  
319 3% 77%  
320 6% 73%  
321 4% 68%  
322 8% 64%  
323 8% 55% Median
324 9% 48%  
325 3% 39%  
326 4% 36%  
327 1.3% 32%  
328 2% 31%  
329 3% 29%  
330 1.2% 26%  
331 7% 25%  
332 3% 18%  
333 4% 15%  
334 1.2% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 0.9% 8%  
337 2% 7%  
338 2% 5%  
339 2% 4%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.5%  
344 0.5% 1.2%  
345 0.1% 0.7%  
346 0.3% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.2%  
299 0.1% 98.9%  
300 1.1% 98.8%  
301 2% 98%  
302 0.8% 96%  
303 0.8% 95%  
304 1.0% 94%  
305 1.2% 93%  
306 3% 92%  
307 2% 90%  
308 3% 87%  
309 3% 85%  
310 1.3% 82%  
311 8% 81%  
312 4% 73%  
313 4% 69%  
314 3% 65%  
315 4% 62%  
316 4% 58%  
317 4% 54% Median
318 6% 50%  
319 2% 44%  
320 8% 42%  
321 4% 34%  
322 4% 30%  
323 2% 26%  
324 3% 24%  
325 4% 21%  
326 2% 17% Last Result
327 6% 15%  
328 0.8% 10%  
329 1.1% 9%  
330 0.9% 8%  
331 1.3% 7%  
332 3% 5%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0.5% 1.2%  
338 0.3% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 2% 99.0%  
300 2% 98% Last Result
301 0.5% 96%  
302 0.4% 95%  
303 1.0% 95%  
304 2% 94%  
305 0.9% 92%  
306 1.0% 91%  
307 3% 90%  
308 4% 87%  
309 6% 83%  
310 0.6% 77%  
311 2% 76%  
312 5% 74%  
313 5% 69%  
314 5% 64%  
315 3% 60% Median
316 10% 57%  
317 5% 47%  
318 8% 42%  
319 2% 34%  
320 3% 32%  
321 3% 29%  
322 5% 26%  
323 2% 20%  
324 2% 18%  
325 4% 17%  
326 1.3% 12%  
327 2% 11%  
328 0.6% 9%  
329 0.9% 8%  
330 3% 7%  
331 1.5% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.4%  
336 0.2% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.3% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.2% 99.7%  
236 0.2% 99.5%  
237 0.4% 99.3%  
238 0.6% 98.9%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 2% 98%  
241 0.4% 96%  
242 0.9% 96%  
243 2% 95%  
244 5% 93%  
245 0.9% 88%  
246 2% 87%  
247 3% 85%  
248 0.7% 82%  
249 5% 81%  
250 1.2% 77%  
251 5% 75%  
252 5% 71%  
253 3% 66%  
254 4% 63%  
255 2% 59% Median
256 12% 57%  
257 5% 45%  
258 9% 40%  
259 2% 31%  
260 6% 29%  
261 2% 23%  
262 4% 21%  
263 2% 17%  
264 1.2% 15%  
265 2% 14%  
266 3% 12%  
267 1.4% 9%  
268 1.1% 8%  
269 2% 7%  
270 2% 5%  
271 1.0% 3%  
272 0.5% 2%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.7% 2%  
275 0.3% 1.1%  
276 0.3% 0.8%  
277 0.2% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0.1% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.2% 99.7%  
171 0.3% 99.5%  
172 1.3% 99.2%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 0.8% 98%  
175 1.5% 97%  
176 0.9% 95%  
177 0.8% 94%  
178 0.6% 94%  
179 4% 93%  
180 3% 89%  
181 4% 86%  
182 4% 82%  
183 11% 79%  
184 3% 68%  
185 2% 65%  
186 4% 63%  
187 3% 59%  
188 4% 55% Median
189 5% 52%  
190 12% 47%  
191 4% 35%  
192 5% 31%  
193 3% 26%  
194 3% 23%  
195 1.4% 19%  
196 2% 18%  
197 3% 16%  
198 3% 13%  
199 5% 10%  
200 0.8% 6%  
201 1.2% 5%  
202 1.1% 3%  
203 0.3% 2%  
204 0.2% 2%  
205 0.5% 2%  
206 0.4% 1.4%  
207 0.3% 1.0%  
208 0.2% 0.7%  
209 0.1% 0.5%  
210 0.2% 0.4%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.6% 99.3%  
166 0.6% 98.7%  
167 2% 98%  
168 0.9% 96%  
169 1.4% 95%  
170 2% 94%  
171 2% 91%  
172 2% 89%  
173 2% 87%  
174 2% 86%  
175 6% 84%  
176 3% 77%  
177 8% 74%  
178 3% 66%  
179 5% 64%  
180 7% 58% Median
181 5% 51%  
182 4% 45%  
183 3% 41%  
184 7% 38%  
185 7% 30%  
186 3% 23%  
187 2% 20%  
188 4% 18%  
189 3% 14%  
190 2% 11%  
191 2% 9%  
192 2% 7%  
193 0.8% 5%  
194 1.2% 4%  
195 0.5% 3%  
196 0.5% 3%  
197 1.0% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.2%  
199 0.2% 0.9%  
200 0.2% 0.7%  
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.4%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations