Opinion Poll by Forsa, 25 February–1 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.6% 26.3–29.0% 26.0–29.3% 25.7–29.7% 25.0–30.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.4% 5.7–7.1% 5.5–7.4% 5.3–7.6% 5.0–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 210 201–220 198–223 195–225 191–231
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 136–153 134–156 132–158 128–162
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 114–130 112–132 110–134 106–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 62–75 61–77 59–79 57–82
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 53–69 52–71 50–74
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–60 47–61 45–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 43–54 42–56 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.2% 99.7%  
191 0.2% 99.6%  
192 0.3% 99.3%  
193 0.5% 99.1%  
194 0.5% 98.6%  
195 0.7% 98%  
196 0.8% 97%  
197 2% 97%  
198 1.4% 95%  
199 2% 94%  
200 2% 92% Last Result
201 3% 90%  
202 3% 87%  
203 3% 84%  
204 3% 81%  
205 5% 78%  
206 3% 73%  
207 6% 70%  
208 4% 64%  
209 5% 59%  
210 4% 54% Median
211 6% 49%  
212 4% 43%  
213 6% 39%  
214 4% 33%  
215 5% 29%  
216 5% 25%  
217 3% 20%  
218 3% 17%  
219 3% 14%  
220 2% 11%  
221 2% 9%  
222 2% 7%  
223 1.5% 6%  
224 0.9% 4%  
225 0.9% 3%  
226 0.7% 2%  
227 0.5% 2%  
228 0.3% 1.3%  
229 0.3% 1.0%  
230 0.2% 0.7%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.4% 99.5%  
129 0.2% 99.2%  
130 0.7% 98.9%  
131 0.6% 98%  
132 1.2% 98%  
133 1.0% 96%  
134 2% 96%  
135 2% 94%  
136 2% 91%  
137 5% 89%  
138 2% 85%  
139 5% 82%  
140 4% 77%  
141 6% 73%  
142 4% 67%  
143 7% 63%  
144 7% 56% Median
145 3% 49%  
146 8% 46%  
147 4% 38%  
148 7% 34%  
149 3% 27%  
150 5% 23%  
151 3% 19%  
152 3% 16%  
153 4% 12%  
154 1.1% 9%  
155 2% 8%  
156 1.0% 5%  
157 1.4% 4%  
158 0.7% 3%  
159 0.7% 2%  
160 0.6% 2%  
161 0.2% 1.0%  
162 0.4% 0.8%  
163 0.1% 0.5%  
164 0.2% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.4% 99.0%  
109 0.7% 98.6%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 3% 91%  
115 3% 88%  
116 4% 85%  
117 6% 81%  
118 6% 75%  
119 5% 69%  
120 7% 64%  
121 6% 57%  
122 5% 51% Median
123 7% 46%  
124 6% 39%  
125 6% 33%  
126 5% 26%  
127 4% 22%  
128 3% 18%  
129 3% 14%  
130 3% 12%  
131 3% 9%  
132 1.5% 6%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 0.9% 3%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.5% 2%  
137 0.5% 1.3%  
138 0.3% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 99.1%  
59 0.9% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 90%  
64 5% 85%  
65 5% 80%  
66 8% 76%  
67 7% 68%  
68 10% 61%  
69 7% 50% Median
70 7% 43%  
71 7% 36%  
72 6% 29%  
73 5% 22%  
74 4% 17%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.4% 4%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.7% 99.1%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 92%  
56 5% 88%  
57 6% 83%  
58 7% 77%  
59 7% 70%  
60 9% 62%  
61 8% 53% Median
62 7% 45%  
63 8% 37%  
64 7% 30%  
65 6% 23%  
66 4% 17%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 1.0% 99.0%  
45 0.6% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 95%  
48 2% 91%  
49 3% 89%  
50 9% 86%  
51 9% 76%  
52 5% 67%  
53 13% 62% Median
54 11% 50%  
55 4% 39%  
56 8% 34%  
57 10% 27%  
58 3% 17%  
59 3% 14%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.4%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 0.8% 98.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 3% 93%  
44 5% 90%  
45 8% 84%  
46 7% 77% Last Result
47 8% 70%  
48 11% 62%  
49 7% 51% Median
50 11% 44%  
51 8% 33%  
52 5% 25%  
53 6% 20%  
54 5% 14%  
55 3% 9%  
56 2% 6%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.5%  
60 0.4% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 525 100% 516–535 513–538 511–540 506–544
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 458 100% 447–468 444–470 441–472 436–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 435 100% 424–444 422–449 419–451 412–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 404 100% 393–414 390–418 388–420 382–425
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 99.9% 371–391 367–395 365–398 360–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.9% 370–392 367–395 365–397 359–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 328 0.1% 317–339 314–341 311–345 306–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0.1% 318–338 314–342 311–344 306–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 310–331 306–334 304–337 299–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 313 0% 302–323 299–326 297–329 291–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 256–277 253–280 251–282 246–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 174–192 171–195 169–198 165–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 167–185 164–188 161–190 157–194

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.8%  
505 0.1% 99.8%  
506 0.2% 99.6%  
507 0.2% 99.4%  
508 0.3% 99.2%  
509 0.4% 98.9%  
510 0.6% 98%  
511 0.8% 98%  
512 1.0% 97%  
513 1.5% 96%  
514 1.0% 95%  
515 2% 94%  
516 2% 91%  
517 3% 89%  
518 3% 86%  
519 4% 83%  
520 4% 79%  
521 4% 75%  
522 6% 71%  
523 4% 66%  
524 6% 61%  
525 5% 55% Median
526 5% 50%  
527 5% 45%  
528 4% 39%  
529 5% 36%  
530 5% 31%  
531 6% 26%  
532 3% 20%  
533 4% 17%  
534 3% 14%  
535 2% 11%  
536 3% 9%  
537 2% 7%  
538 1.4% 5%  
539 1.1% 4%  
540 0.8% 3%  
541 0.4% 2%  
542 0.5% 1.4%  
543 0.3% 0.9%  
544 0.2% 0.6%  
545 0.1% 0.4%  
546 0.1% 0.3%  
547 0.1% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.6%  
437 0.2% 99.4%  
438 0.4% 99.2%  
439 0.3% 98.8%  
440 0.7% 98.6%  
441 0.5% 98%  
442 0.7% 97%  
443 1.2% 97%  
444 1.2% 96%  
445 2% 94%  
446 2% 93%  
447 2% 91%  
448 2% 89%  
449 3% 87%  
450 3% 84%  
451 4% 81%  
452 4% 77%  
453 4% 73%  
454 5% 69%  
455 4% 64%  
456 5% 60% Median
457 4% 55%  
458 6% 51%  
459 5% 45%  
460 6% 41%  
461 4% 35%  
462 6% 31%  
463 3% 25%  
464 4% 22%  
465 3% 19%  
466 3% 15%  
467 2% 12%  
468 3% 10%  
469 1.3% 8%  
470 1.4% 6%  
471 1.3% 5%  
472 1.2% 4%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.5% 2%  
476 0.3% 1.1%  
477 0.2% 0.7%  
478 0.2% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.2% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.5%  
414 0.3% 99.4%  
415 0.3% 99.1%  
416 0.4% 98.8%  
417 0.2% 98%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.5% 98%  
420 0.8% 97%  
421 1.2% 97%  
422 1.2% 95%  
423 3% 94%  
424 2% 91%  
425 4% 89%  
426 4% 85%  
427 3% 81%  
428 3% 78%  
429 4% 75%  
430 3% 71%  
431 2% 68%  
432 3% 66%  
433 3% 63%  
434 6% 60% Median
435 5% 54%  
436 5% 49%  
437 5% 44%  
438 7% 39%  
439 6% 31%  
440 4% 25%  
441 5% 21%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 14%  
444 2% 11%  
445 0.7% 10%  
446 1.3% 9%  
447 1.2% 8%  
448 0.9% 6%  
449 1.4% 5%  
450 1.1% 4%  
451 0.8% 3%  
452 0.5% 2%  
453 0.6% 2%  
454 0.3% 0.9%  
455 0.3% 0.6%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0.2% 99.2%  
385 0.3% 98.9%  
386 0.6% 98.6%  
387 0.5% 98%  
388 1.1% 98%  
389 0.7% 96%  
390 1.2% 96%  
391 2% 95%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 88%  
395 2% 86%  
396 2% 84%  
397 4% 82%  
398 5% 78%  
399 5% 73%  
400 4% 68%  
401 4% 64%  
402 4% 60%  
403 5% 56% Median
404 4% 51%  
405 4% 47%  
406 5% 43%  
407 6% 38%  
408 4% 32%  
409 4% 28%  
410 4% 24%  
411 3% 21%  
412 3% 18%  
413 3% 15%  
414 2% 12%  
415 2% 10%  
416 1.5% 7%  
417 1.0% 6%  
418 1.3% 5%  
419 1.2% 4%  
420 0.7% 3%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.4% 2%  
423 0.2% 1.1%  
424 0.2% 0.9%  
425 0.3% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0.1% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.3%  
362 0.4% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.6%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 1.1% 98%  
366 0.8% 96%  
367 0.8% 96%  
368 1.1% 95%  
369 1.4% 94%  
370 1.4% 92%  
371 2% 91%  
372 2% 89%  
373 4% 87%  
374 3% 83%  
375 3% 80%  
376 3% 77%  
377 5% 74%  
378 4% 68%  
379 4% 64%  
380 3% 60%  
381 5% 57% Median
382 5% 52%  
383 4% 47%  
384 4% 43%  
385 5% 39%  
386 7% 34%  
387 4% 27%  
388 3% 22%  
389 3% 19%  
390 4% 16%  
391 3% 13%  
392 2% 10%  
393 1.3% 8%  
394 2% 7%  
395 1.2% 5%  
396 0.9% 4%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.7% 3%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.4%  
401 0.2% 1.0%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.2% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.3%  
362 0.3% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.7%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 1.5% 97%  
367 1.1% 96%  
368 2% 94%  
369 2% 92%  
370 2% 90%  
371 3% 89%  
372 3% 86%  
373 3% 83%  
374 3% 80%  
375 4% 77%  
376 3% 73%  
377 3% 70%  
378 4% 67%  
379 4% 63%  
380 3% 59%  
381 7% 56% Median
382 4% 49%  
383 5% 44%  
384 6% 39%  
385 5% 33%  
386 3% 28%  
387 5% 25%  
388 3% 20%  
389 2% 17%  
390 3% 15%  
391 1.3% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 1.3% 8%  
394 1.4% 7%  
395 1.2% 6%  
396 1.4% 4%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.7% 2% Last Result
400 0.3% 1.2%  
401 0.3% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.3% 99.5%  
308 0.3% 99.2%  
309 0.3% 98.9%  
310 0.5% 98.6%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 0.9% 97%  
313 1.0% 96%  
314 1.4% 95%  
315 1.5% 94%  
316 1.1% 93%  
317 2% 91%  
318 3% 90%  
319 3% 87%  
320 4% 84%  
321 3% 80%  
322 2% 77%  
323 3% 75%  
324 5% 71%  
325 4% 67%  
326 6% 62%  
327 6% 56%  
328 4% 50% Median
329 3% 46%  
330 3% 43%  
331 4% 40%  
332 5% 36%  
333 8% 32%  
334 5% 24%  
335 2% 19%  
336 2% 16%  
337 2% 15%  
338 2% 13%  
339 2% 11%  
340 3% 9% Last Result
341 2% 6%  
342 0.7% 4%  
343 0.5% 4%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.7% 2%  
347 0.5% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.4%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0.4% 99.0%  
310 0.5% 98.6%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 0.6% 97%  
313 0.9% 97%  
314 1.2% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 1.3% 93%  
317 2% 92%  
318 3% 90%  
319 4% 87%  
320 3% 84%  
321 3% 81%  
322 4% 78%  
323 7% 73%  
324 5% 66%  
325 4% 61%  
326 4% 57%  
327 5% 53% Median
328 5% 48%  
329 3% 43%  
330 4% 40%  
331 4% 36%  
332 5% 32%  
333 3% 26%  
334 3% 23%  
335 3% 20%  
336 4% 17%  
337 2% 13%  
338 2% 11%  
339 1.4% 9%  
340 1.4% 8%  
341 1.1% 6%  
342 0.8% 5%  
343 0.8% 4%  
344 1.1% 4%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.4% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 1.0%  
349 0.2% 0.7%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.2% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
301 0.4% 99.0%  
302 0.5% 98.7%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.8% 98%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 0.9% 94%  
308 2% 93%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 90%  
311 2% 87%  
312 3% 85%  
313 3% 82%  
314 3% 79%  
315 5% 76%  
316 3% 71%  
317 5% 67%  
318 4% 62%  
319 6% 58% Median
320 4% 52%  
321 4% 48%  
322 6% 44%  
323 4% 38%  
324 5% 34%  
325 5% 30%  
326 3% 25%  
327 3% 22%  
328 3% 19%  
329 2% 15%  
330 3% 13%  
331 2% 10%  
332 1.4% 8%  
333 1.1% 7%  
334 2% 6%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.9% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.6% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.5%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 98.9%  
295 0.5% 98.5%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 1.2% 97%  
299 1.2% 96%  
300 2% 94%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 91%  
303 2% 89%  
304 3% 87%  
305 3% 84%  
306 3% 80%  
307 3% 77%  
308 3% 74%  
309 4% 71%  
310 5% 67%  
311 5% 62%  
312 5% 57% Median
313 4% 52%  
314 4% 48%  
315 6% 44%  
316 4% 38%  
317 5% 34%  
318 6% 29%  
319 3% 23%  
320 4% 20%  
321 3% 17%  
322 3% 14%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.5% 7%  
326 1.0% 6% Last Result
327 1.0% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.6% 3%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.2% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.4%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.4% 98.7%  
250 0.8% 98%  
251 0.8% 98%  
252 0.9% 97%  
253 1.2% 96%  
254 1.4% 95%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 91%  
257 2% 89%  
258 3% 87%  
259 4% 84%  
260 4% 80%  
261 4% 77%  
262 3% 73%  
263 6% 69%  
264 5% 64%  
265 5% 59%  
266 4% 54% Median
267 6% 50%  
268 5% 44%  
269 4% 39%  
270 4% 35%  
271 6% 31%  
272 4% 25%  
273 3% 22%  
274 3% 19%  
275 3% 16%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 11%  
278 2% 9%  
279 2% 7%  
280 1.1% 5%  
281 1.0% 4%  
282 0.8% 3%  
283 0.6% 2%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.4%  
286 0.3% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0.2% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.3% 99.5%  
166 0.2% 99.2%  
167 0.6% 99.0%  
168 0.5% 98%  
169 0.9% 98%  
170 1.0% 97%  
171 2% 96%  
172 2% 95%  
173 2% 93%  
174 4% 91%  
175 2% 87%  
176 5% 85%  
177 3% 81%  
178 5% 78%  
179 7% 73%  
180 4% 66%  
181 7% 62%  
182 4% 55%  
183 6% 51% Median
184 4% 45%  
185 5% 40%  
186 5% 35%  
187 4% 30%  
188 5% 26%  
189 3% 21%  
190 4% 18%  
191 2% 14%  
192 3% 12%  
193 1.5% 9%  
194 2% 8%  
195 0.9% 6%  
196 0.7% 5%  
197 1.2% 4%  
198 0.5% 3%  
199 0.7% 2%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.4% 1.1%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.4% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.0%  
160 0.6% 98.6%  
161 0.8% 98%  
162 0.8% 97%  
163 1.0% 96%  
164 2% 95%  
165 1.5% 94%  
166 2% 92%  
167 4% 90%  
168 2% 87%  
169 5% 85%  
170 4% 80%  
171 4% 76%  
172 5% 72%  
173 8% 67%  
174 5% 59%  
175 6% 54% Median
176 6% 48%  
177 3% 41%  
178 6% 38%  
179 5% 32%  
180 3% 27%  
181 4% 24%  
182 4% 20%  
183 2% 16%  
184 3% 14%  
185 2% 11%  
186 1.4% 9%  
187 2% 7%  
188 2% 5%  
189 0.8% 4%  
190 0.9% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.5% 1.4%  
193 0.3% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations