Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 26 February–1 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 25.5% 24.3–26.8% 23.9–27.1% 23.6–27.4% 23.1–28.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 189 180–198 177–201 175–203 171–208
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 118–134 116–136 114–138 110–142
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 126 118–134 116–136 114–139 110–142
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–89 74–90 72–92 69–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 74 68–81 66–82 65–84 62–88
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 52–67 51–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–57 45–59 44–61 42–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0.2% 99.6%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.3% 99.1%  
174 0.8% 98.8%  
175 0.6% 98%  
176 1.0% 97%  
177 2% 96%  
178 2% 95%  
179 2% 93%  
180 3% 91%  
181 2% 88%  
182 4% 86%  
183 4% 81%  
184 5% 78%  
185 5% 73%  
186 3% 67%  
187 6% 64%  
188 5% 58%  
189 6% 53% Median
190 6% 47%  
191 4% 41%  
192 6% 37%  
193 5% 31%  
194 5% 26%  
195 4% 21%  
196 2% 17%  
197 3% 15%  
198 3% 11%  
199 1.3% 8%  
200 2% 7% Last Result
201 1.2% 5%  
202 1.1% 4%  
203 0.9% 3%  
204 0.6% 2%  
205 0.4% 2%  
206 0.3% 1.2%  
207 0.3% 0.8%  
208 0.2% 0.5%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.5%  
112 0.3% 99.2%  
113 0.8% 98.9%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 2% 97%  
116 1.2% 96%  
117 3% 95%  
118 4% 92%  
119 2% 88%  
120 6% 86%  
121 3% 80%  
122 7% 77%  
123 5% 70%  
124 5% 65%  
125 6% 60%  
126 5% 54% Median
127 7% 49%  
128 6% 41%  
129 5% 35%  
130 8% 31%  
131 3% 23%  
132 6% 20%  
133 2% 14%  
134 4% 12%  
135 2% 8%  
136 2% 6%  
137 1.4% 5%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 0.9% 2%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.2% 1.0%  
142 0.4% 0.8%  
143 0.1% 0.4%  
144 0.2% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.5%  
112 0.6% 99.3%  
113 0.5% 98.7%  
114 1.3% 98%  
115 1.1% 97%  
116 1.2% 96%  
117 3% 95%  
118 3% 91%  
119 3% 89%  
120 4% 85%  
121 6% 81%  
122 6% 75%  
123 4% 70%  
124 8% 66%  
125 4% 58%  
126 7% 54% Median
127 8% 47%  
128 5% 40%  
129 6% 35%  
130 4% 29%  
131 6% 24%  
132 4% 18%  
133 3% 14%  
134 3% 11%  
135 1.4% 8%  
136 3% 7%  
137 0.7% 4%  
138 0.9% 3%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.1%  
142 0.2% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 98.9%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 90%  
77 6% 86%  
78 6% 81%  
79 7% 75%  
80 7% 67%  
81 9% 60%  
82 8% 52% Median
83 7% 44%  
84 7% 37%  
85 6% 31%  
86 6% 25%  
87 5% 19%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 1.3% 5%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 0.9% 98.8%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 4% 92%  
69 5% 88%  
70 5% 83%  
71 6% 78%  
72 7% 72%  
73 8% 64%  
74 9% 57% Median
75 7% 48%  
76 9% 41%  
77 6% 31%  
78 7% 26%  
79 5% 19%  
80 3% 14% Last Result
81 4% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.5% 5%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.4%  
87 0.3% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5%  
50 0.7% 99.1%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 5% 92%  
55 5% 87%  
56 6% 82%  
57 9% 76%  
58 9% 68%  
59 8% 59%  
60 10% 51% Median
61 7% 41%  
62 7% 34%  
63 7% 27%  
64 6% 21%  
65 3% 14%  
66 4% 11%  
67 2% 7%  
68 1.4% 5%  
69 1.5% 3% Last Result
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.7% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 3% 94% Last Result
47 6% 91%  
48 7% 86%  
49 6% 79%  
50 9% 73%  
51 9% 63%  
52 8% 54% Median
53 10% 46%  
54 9% 36%  
55 6% 27%  
56 6% 21%  
57 5% 15%  
58 3% 10%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 483–503 481–505 478–508 473–512
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 441 100% 431–451 429–454 426–457 421–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 442 100% 431–451 428–454 426–457 421–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 397 100% 387–408 384–410 381–413 377–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 367 94% 357–377 354–380 351–383 346–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 367 94% 357–378 354–380 351–383 347–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 327 0% 316–337 313–339 310–342 306–347
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 323 0% 313–333 310–336 307–339 303–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 315 0% 305–326 302–328 300–331 295–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 312 0% 301–322 299–325 296–328 291–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 252 0% 242–262 239–265 237–267 233–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 200 0% 191–210 189–212 186–215 182–219
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 186 0% 177–195 174–198 172–199 168–204

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 99.9%  
470 0.1% 99.9%  
471 0.1% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.8%  
473 0.2% 99.7%  
474 0.2% 99.5%  
475 0.2% 99.2%  
476 0.4% 99.0%  
477 0.6% 98.6%  
478 0.6% 98%  
479 0.7% 97%  
480 2% 97%  
481 1.2% 95%  
482 2% 94%  
483 2% 92%  
484 2% 90%  
485 2% 88%  
486 5% 85%  
487 4% 80%  
488 3% 76%  
489 6% 73%  
490 3% 67%  
491 5% 63%  
492 6% 59%  
493 5% 53% Median
494 6% 48%  
495 4% 42%  
496 5% 38%  
497 6% 33%  
498 4% 28%  
499 3% 23%  
500 3% 20%  
501 4% 17%  
502 3% 13%  
503 2% 11%  
504 2% 8%  
505 1.4% 6%  
506 1.2% 5%  
507 1.0% 3%  
508 0.6% 3%  
509 0.7% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.3%  
511 0.4% 1.0%  
512 0.3% 0.6%  
513 0.1% 0.4%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.2% 99.4%  
423 0.3% 99.2%  
424 0.6% 98.9%  
425 0.6% 98%  
426 0.6% 98%  
427 0.9% 97%  
428 1.1% 96%  
429 2% 95%  
430 2% 93%  
431 3% 91%  
432 2% 89%  
433 3% 87%  
434 3% 84%  
435 3% 81%  
436 4% 77%  
437 4% 73%  
438 6% 69%  
439 4% 63%  
440 5% 59%  
441 5% 53% Median
442 4% 49%  
443 4% 44%  
444 4% 40%  
445 7% 36%  
446 5% 29%  
447 3% 24%  
448 4% 21%  
449 2% 18%  
450 4% 16%  
451 2% 12%  
452 2% 10%  
453 2% 7%  
454 1.0% 6%  
455 1.1% 5%  
456 0.9% 4%  
457 0.6% 3%  
458 0.7% 2%  
459 0.3% 1.4%  
460 0.3% 1.0%  
461 0.2% 0.7%  
462 0.2% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0.1% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.2% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.6%  
422 0.3% 99.4%  
423 0.3% 99.1%  
424 0.4% 98.8%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 0.9% 98%  
427 0.7% 97%  
428 1.5% 96%  
429 2% 95%  
430 1.1% 93%  
431 3% 92%  
432 2% 89%  
433 3% 87%  
434 2% 84%  
435 4% 82%  
436 4% 78%  
437 6% 74%  
438 4% 68%  
439 4% 64%  
440 4% 60%  
441 5% 56% Median
442 7% 52%  
443 5% 45%  
444 7% 39%  
445 3% 32%  
446 3% 29%  
447 5% 26%  
448 3% 21%  
449 3% 18%  
450 4% 15%  
451 2% 11%  
452 2% 9%  
453 1.0% 7%  
454 2% 6%  
455 0.7% 4%  
456 0.9% 4%  
457 0.8% 3%  
458 0.6% 2%  
459 0.4% 1.3%  
460 0.3% 0.9%  
461 0.2% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0.1% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.1% 99.6%  
378 0.4% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.0%  
380 0.6% 98.7%  
381 0.7% 98%  
382 1.0% 97%  
383 0.9% 96%  
384 2% 95%  
385 1.0% 94%  
386 1.5% 93%  
387 2% 91%  
388 2% 89%  
389 4% 87%  
390 3% 83%  
391 4% 81%  
392 4% 77%  
393 4% 73%  
394 5% 69%  
395 5% 64%  
396 5% 59%  
397 6% 53% Median
398 6% 48%  
399 5% 42%  
400 4% 37%  
401 3% 33%  
402 4% 30%  
403 2% 25%  
404 4% 23%  
405 3% 18%  
406 3% 16%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 2% 8%  
410 2% 7%  
411 1.3% 5%  
412 0.8% 4%  
413 0.8% 3%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.4%  
416 0.3% 1.0%  
417 0.2% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.2% 99.6%  
347 0.2% 99.4%  
348 0.3% 99.2%  
349 0.3% 98.9%  
350 0.6% 98.6%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 1.0% 97%  
353 1.3% 96%  
354 1.5% 95%  
355 2% 94% Majority
356 2% 92%  
357 2% 90%  
358 2% 88%  
359 3% 85%  
360 4% 82%  
361 4% 78%  
362 4% 75%  
363 4% 71%  
364 5% 67%  
365 5% 62%  
366 5% 57%  
367 6% 53% Median
368 5% 47%  
369 4% 42%  
370 4% 38%  
371 4% 34%  
372 5% 30%  
373 4% 26%  
374 3% 21%  
375 3% 18%  
376 2% 14%  
377 3% 12%  
378 2% 10%  
379 2% 8%  
380 1.4% 6%  
381 1.4% 5%  
382 0.8% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.6% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.5%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.2% 99.5%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.5% 99.1%  
350 0.7% 98.6%  
351 0.9% 98%  
352 0.7% 97%  
353 0.7% 96%  
354 1.2% 96%  
355 2% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 3% 90%  
358 2% 87%  
359 4% 85%  
360 2% 81%  
361 2% 79%  
362 5% 77%  
363 4% 72%  
364 7% 68%  
365 5% 62%  
366 6% 57%  
367 4% 51% Median
368 3% 47%  
369 4% 44%  
370 4% 40%  
371 7% 36%  
372 5% 30%  
373 6% 25%  
374 2% 19%  
375 2% 17%  
376 2% 15%  
377 2% 12%  
378 3% 11%  
379 1.4% 8%  
380 2% 6%  
381 0.8% 4%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.7% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.6% 1.4%  
387 0.3% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.5%  
389 0.2% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.2% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.4%  
308 0.5% 99.1%  
309 0.4% 98.6%  
310 0.7% 98%  
311 0.8% 97%  
312 1.0% 97%  
313 1.2% 96%  
314 2% 94%  
315 1.4% 93%  
316 3% 91%  
317 2% 89%  
318 3% 87%  
319 3% 83%  
320 3% 80%  
321 3% 77%  
322 5% 74%  
323 5% 69%  
324 5% 64%  
325 5% 59%  
326 3% 53% Median
327 5% 50%  
328 3% 45%  
329 6% 41%  
330 5% 35%  
331 5% 31%  
332 5% 26%  
333 3% 21%  
334 3% 18%  
335 2% 15%  
336 3% 13%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 8%  
339 2% 6%  
340 0.9% 5%  
341 0.6% 4%  
342 0.8% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.6% 2%  
345 0.4% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.5%  
304 0.4% 99.3%  
305 0.4% 98.9%  
306 0.5% 98.6%  
307 0.7% 98%  
308 1.0% 97%  
309 0.9% 96%  
310 1.2% 95%  
311 2% 94%  
312 2% 93%  
313 2% 90%  
314 3% 88%  
315 2% 85%  
316 4% 83%  
317 4% 79%  
318 4% 75%  
319 6% 72%  
320 5% 66%  
321 4% 61%  
322 4% 57%  
323 6% 53% Median
324 6% 46%  
325 4% 41%  
326 4% 37%  
327 4% 33%  
328 4% 28%  
329 4% 24%  
330 3% 20%  
331 3% 17%  
332 2% 15%  
333 3% 12%  
334 1.5% 9%  
335 1.4% 8%  
336 1.2% 6%  
337 1.2% 5%  
338 1.1% 4%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.6% 2% Last Result
341 0.3% 1.4%  
342 0.4% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.3% 99.2%  
298 0.5% 98.9%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 1.1% 98%  
301 1.3% 97%  
302 1.1% 95%  
303 1.1% 94%  
304 1.4% 93%  
305 3% 92%  
306 3% 89%  
307 3% 86%  
308 4% 83%  
309 3% 79%  
310 4% 76%  
311 3% 73%  
312 3% 69%  
313 5% 66%  
314 8% 61%  
315 6% 53% Median
316 4% 47%  
317 5% 43%  
318 4% 38%  
319 4% 35%  
320 4% 31%  
321 5% 26%  
322 5% 22%  
323 2% 17%  
324 2% 15%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10% Last Result
327 1.4% 8%  
328 2% 7%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 1.1% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.4% 1.3%  
335 0.3% 0.9%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.3%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.5% 98.6%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 0.8% 97%  
298 1.3% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 89%  
303 3% 87%  
304 3% 84%  
305 4% 82%  
306 2% 77%  
307 4% 75%  
308 3% 70%  
309 4% 67%  
310 5% 63%  
311 6% 58%  
312 6% 52% Median
313 5% 47%  
314 5% 41%  
315 5% 36%  
316 4% 31%  
317 4% 27%  
318 4% 23%  
319 3% 19%  
320 4% 17%  
321 2% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 1.5% 9%  
324 1.0% 7%  
325 2% 6%  
326 0.9% 5%  
327 1.0% 4%  
328 0.7% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.3%  
331 0.4% 1.0%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.4% 99.5%  
234 0.2% 99.1%  
235 0.6% 98.9%  
236 0.4% 98%  
237 0.9% 98%  
238 2% 97%  
239 1.0% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 1.0% 93%  
242 4% 92%  
243 1.5% 88%  
244 4% 87%  
245 2% 83%  
246 4% 81%  
247 6% 77%  
248 3% 71%  
249 5% 68%  
250 3% 63%  
251 9% 60%  
252 5% 51% Median
253 4% 47%  
254 5% 43%  
255 2% 38%  
256 8% 35%  
257 3% 27%  
258 4% 24%  
259 2% 20%  
260 5% 18%  
261 2% 13%  
262 2% 11%  
263 2% 9%  
264 0.6% 7%  
265 2% 6%  
266 0.7% 4%  
267 1.1% 3%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.6% 1.5%  
271 0.2% 0.8%  
272 0.3% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.7%  
182 0.2% 99.6%  
183 0.3% 99.3%  
184 0.4% 99.0%  
185 0.7% 98.6%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 1.3% 97%  
188 1.0% 96%  
189 2% 95%  
190 2% 93%  
191 2% 91%  
192 3% 89%  
193 3% 86%  
194 4% 83%  
195 4% 79%  
196 5% 75%  
197 5% 70%  
198 5% 64%  
199 4% 59%  
200 8% 56% Median
201 4% 48%  
202 5% 44%  
203 6% 39%  
204 5% 33%  
205 4% 28%  
206 3% 24%  
207 5% 21%  
208 3% 16%  
209 2% 13%  
210 4% 11%  
211 1.3% 7%  
212 1.2% 6%  
213 1.4% 5%  
214 0.9% 3%  
215 0.7% 3%  
216 0.6% 2%  
217 0.4% 1.4%  
218 0.3% 0.9%  
219 0.2% 0.6%  
220 0.2% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0.1% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.2% 99.6%  
169 0.3% 99.4%  
170 0.6% 99.1%  
171 0.9% 98.5%  
172 0.4% 98%  
173 0.7% 97%  
174 3% 96%  
175 2% 94%  
176 1.3% 92%  
177 2% 91%  
178 5% 89%  
179 4% 83%  
180 2% 79%  
181 4% 77%  
182 6% 73%  
183 7% 67%  
184 3% 60%  
185 4% 57%  
186 6% 53% Median
187 7% 46%  
188 3% 39%  
189 3% 36%  
190 8% 33%  
191 5% 25%  
192 3% 20%  
193 2% 17%  
194 4% 15%  
195 4% 12%  
196 1.0% 8%  
197 1.1% 7%  
198 2% 6%  
199 2% 4%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.3%  
203 0.4% 1.0%  
204 0.2% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations