Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 1–2 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.9% 25.3–28.5% 24.9–28.9% 24.5–29.3% 23.8–30.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9% 17.9–22.3% 17.3–23.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.7–17.3% 14.4–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.2% 9.7–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 9.0–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.2% 5.4–7.1% 5.2–7.4% 5.0–7.6% 4.6–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 202 190–214 187–217 184–220 179–226
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 150 140–161 137–164 134–167 130–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 111–129 108–133 106–135 102–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–92 73–94 71–98 67–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 46–60 45–62 43–64 40–68
Die Linke 69 53 46–60 45–62 43–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 47 41–54 39–56 37–57 35–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.1% 99.8%  
178 0.1% 99.7%  
179 0.1% 99.5%  
180 0.3% 99.4%  
181 0.2% 99.1%  
182 0.5% 98.9%  
183 0.4% 98%  
184 0.7% 98%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 0.7% 97%  
187 1.4% 96%  
188 1.2% 94%  
189 2% 93%  
190 2% 91%  
191 3% 89%  
192 3% 87%  
193 2% 84%  
194 3% 82%  
195 3% 78%  
196 3% 75%  
197 3% 72%  
198 6% 70%  
199 4% 64%  
200 5% 60% Last Result
201 4% 55%  
202 5% 52% Median
203 4% 47%  
204 3% 43%  
205 5% 39%  
206 3% 35%  
207 4% 32%  
208 4% 28%  
209 3% 24%  
210 3% 21%  
211 2% 17%  
212 3% 15%  
213 2% 12%  
214 2% 11%  
215 2% 9%  
216 1.3% 7%  
217 0.9% 6%  
218 1.1% 5%  
219 0.7% 4%  
220 0.7% 3%  
221 0.5% 2%  
222 0.4% 2%  
223 0.2% 1.3%  
224 0.3% 1.1%  
225 0.2% 0.8%  
226 0.2% 0.6%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.5%  
131 0.3% 99.3%  
132 0.4% 99.1%  
133 0.5% 98.6%  
134 0.8% 98%  
135 0.9% 97%  
136 1.0% 96%  
137 1.2% 95%  
138 1.4% 94%  
139 2% 93%  
140 2% 91%  
141 3% 89%  
142 2% 86%  
143 4% 84%  
144 5% 80%  
145 4% 75%  
146 3% 71%  
147 5% 68%  
148 5% 63%  
149 5% 57%  
150 4% 52% Median
151 5% 48%  
152 5% 43%  
153 3% 38%  
154 4% 35%  
155 4% 31%  
156 4% 27%  
157 4% 23%  
158 3% 19%  
159 3% 17%  
160 2% 14%  
161 2% 11%  
162 1.4% 9%  
163 1.3% 8%  
164 2% 6%  
165 1.1% 5%  
166 0.7% 4%  
167 0.7% 3%  
168 0.7% 2%  
169 0.4% 2%  
170 0.3% 1.2%  
171 0.2% 0.8%  
172 0.2% 0.6%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.5% 99.6%  
103 0.2% 99.1%  
104 0.1% 98.9%  
105 1.2% 98.8%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 0.2% 96%  
108 2% 96%  
109 3% 94%  
110 0.4% 91%  
111 2% 91%  
112 7% 89%  
113 2% 82%  
114 1.2% 80%  
115 7% 79%  
116 5% 71%  
117 0.6% 67%  
118 7% 66%  
119 10% 59% Median
120 0.8% 50%  
121 3% 49%  
122 11% 45%  
123 2% 34%  
124 1.3% 32%  
125 7% 31%  
126 4% 23%  
127 0.3% 20%  
128 4% 19%  
129 5% 15%  
130 0.2% 10%  
131 1.2% 10%  
132 3% 8%  
133 0.6% 5%  
134 0.2% 5%  
135 2% 4%  
136 0.5% 2%  
137 0.1% 2%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.1%  
140 0% 0.6%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.3% 99.4%  
69 1.1% 99.1%  
70 0.4% 98%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 0.4% 97%  
73 3% 97%  
74 2% 93%  
75 4% 92%  
76 3% 87%  
77 6% 84%  
78 2% 79%  
79 5% 76%  
80 4% 71%  
81 4% 68%  
82 4% 64%  
83 12% 60% Median
84 9% 47%  
85 6% 38%  
86 4% 33%  
87 2% 29%  
88 3% 26%  
89 3% 23%  
90 7% 20%  
91 2% 13%  
92 3% 11%  
93 1.4% 8%  
94 2% 6% Last Result
95 0.3% 4%  
96 0.7% 4%  
97 0.3% 3%  
98 1.1% 3%  
99 0.3% 1.4%  
100 0.7% 1.1%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.5% 99.4%  
42 0.5% 98.9%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 3% 93%  
47 3% 90%  
48 4% 87%  
49 6% 83%  
50 7% 76%  
51 7% 69%  
52 7% 61%  
53 7% 54% Median
54 8% 47%  
55 8% 39%  
56 5% 31%  
57 4% 26%  
58 4% 22%  
59 4% 17%  
60 5% 13%  
61 2% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.0% 4%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.5%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 99.1%  
43 1.0% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 89%  
48 6% 85%  
49 5% 80%  
50 7% 75%  
51 6% 68%  
52 7% 61%  
53 8% 54% Median
54 8% 46%  
55 6% 38%  
56 7% 32%  
57 6% 25%  
58 3% 19%  
59 4% 16%  
60 3% 12%  
61 2% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.3% 5%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.4% 99.6%  
36 0.6% 99.2%  
37 1.1% 98.6%  
38 2% 97%  
39 3% 96%  
40 3% 93%  
41 4% 90%  
42 7% 86%  
43 5% 79%  
44 6% 74%  
45 8% 68%  
46 9% 60% Last Result
47 6% 51% Median
48 8% 45%  
49 7% 36%  
50 7% 30%  
51 5% 22%  
52 4% 17%  
53 3% 14%  
54 3% 10%  
55 2% 7%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 519 100% 508–532 505–534 501–537 496–542
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 440–464 436–468 433–471 427–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 423 100% 409–435 406–439 403–441 396–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 399 100% 386–412 382–416 379–418 373–425
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 386 99.9% 372–399 369–402 366–405 359–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 370 93% 355–381 351–385 350–390 342–395
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 332 2% 318–345 316–349 312–352 306–359
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 324 0.1% 311–337 307–341 304–344 298–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 323 0.1% 310–337 307–340 304–343 297–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 302 0% 289–315 285–319 283–322 276–328
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 270 0% 258–284 254–287 252–290 246–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 163–185 160–188 157–191 151–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 162–185 159–188 157–191 151–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0.1% 99.9%  
494 0.1% 99.8%  
495 0.1% 99.7%  
496 0.3% 99.6%  
497 0.2% 99.3%  
498 0.4% 99.1%  
499 0.3% 98.7%  
500 0.5% 98%  
501 0.5% 98%  
502 0.7% 97%  
503 0.7% 97%  
504 1.0% 96%  
505 0.9% 95%  
506 1.5% 94%  
507 1.1% 93%  
508 2% 91%  
509 3% 90%  
510 3% 87%  
511 4% 84%  
512 4% 80%  
513 4% 77%  
514 5% 73%  
515 3% 68%  
516 3% 65%  
517 5% 62%  
518 5% 57% Median
519 4% 51%  
520 5% 47%  
521 4% 42%  
522 3% 38%  
523 3% 36%  
524 3% 33%  
525 4% 30%  
526 2% 26%  
527 4% 24%  
528 2% 20%  
529 3% 18%  
530 2% 15%  
531 3% 13%  
532 1.4% 10%  
533 3% 9%  
534 1.1% 6%  
535 2% 5%  
536 0.6% 3%  
537 0.9% 3%  
538 0.4% 2%  
539 0.4% 1.4%  
540 0.2% 1.1%  
541 0.2% 0.8%  
542 0.1% 0.6%  
543 0.1% 0.5%  
544 0.1% 0.4%  
545 0% 0.3%  
546 0% 0.3%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.2%  
549 0% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0% 99.6%  
427 0.1% 99.5%  
428 0.2% 99.4%  
429 0.4% 99.2%  
430 0.3% 98.8%  
431 0.1% 98.5%  
432 0.6% 98%  
433 1.1% 98%  
434 0.6% 97%  
435 0.3% 96%  
436 0.9% 96%  
437 2% 95%  
438 2% 93%  
439 0.6% 91%  
440 1.1% 90%  
441 3% 89%  
442 3% 86%  
443 1.4% 83%  
444 2% 81%  
445 3% 80%  
446 5% 77%  
447 3% 72%  
448 1.5% 69%  
449 2% 67%  
450 7% 65%  
451 4% 58%  
452 3% 54% Median
453 3% 50%  
454 4% 48%  
455 6% 43%  
456 4% 37%  
457 2% 33%  
458 4% 31%  
459 4% 27%  
460 3% 23%  
461 2% 20%  
462 2% 18%  
463 3% 16%  
464 3% 12%  
465 1.0% 9%  
466 1.0% 8%  
467 2% 7%  
468 1.2% 6%  
469 1.0% 4%  
470 0.4% 3%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.8% 2%  
473 0.4% 2%  
474 0.1% 1.2%  
475 0.2% 1.1%  
476 0.3% 0.9%  
477 0.2% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.2% 99.7%  
396 0.2% 99.5%  
397 0.1% 99.3%  
398 0.3% 99.2%  
399 0.3% 98.9%  
400 0.3% 98.6%  
401 0.3% 98%  
402 0.4% 98%  
403 0.3% 98%  
404 0.6% 97%  
405 0.6% 97%  
406 1.2% 96%  
407 2% 95%  
408 1.2% 93%  
409 3% 92%  
410 4% 90%  
411 3% 86%  
412 2% 83%  
413 2% 81%  
414 1.1% 78%  
415 3% 77%  
416 2% 74%  
417 2% 72%  
418 3% 71%  
419 3% 68%  
420 4% 65%  
421 6% 61% Median
422 4% 55%  
423 5% 51%  
424 5% 46%  
425 6% 41%  
426 5% 35%  
427 3% 30%  
428 3% 28%  
429 4% 25%  
430 2% 21%  
431 2% 20%  
432 3% 18%  
433 1.5% 15%  
434 2% 14%  
435 3% 12%  
436 2% 9%  
437 1.1% 8%  
438 1.1% 7%  
439 1.3% 6%  
440 1.5% 4%  
441 0.7% 3%  
442 0.4% 2%  
443 0.5% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.5%  
445 0.2% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 0.8%  
447 0.1% 0.7%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.6%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.4%  
375 0.2% 99.1%  
376 0.2% 98.9%  
377 0.3% 98.7%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 0.7% 97%  
382 1.1% 96%  
383 1.2% 95%  
384 1.0% 94%  
385 1.3% 93%  
386 1.5% 91%  
387 2% 90%  
388 3% 88%  
389 2% 85%  
390 2% 83%  
391 3% 81%  
392 3% 78%  
393 3% 74%  
394 2% 71%  
395 4% 69%  
396 4% 64%  
397 4% 61%  
398 4% 57%  
399 5% 53% Median
400 4% 49%  
401 4% 44%  
402 4% 41%  
403 4% 37%  
404 3% 33%  
405 4% 30%  
406 3% 26%  
407 3% 23%  
408 3% 21%  
409 2% 18%  
410 2% 16%  
411 3% 14%  
412 2% 11%  
413 1.4% 9%  
414 1.3% 8%  
415 1.4% 6%  
416 0.8% 5%  
417 0.9% 4%  
418 1.0% 3%  
419 0.5% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.2% 1.2%  
423 0.2% 0.9%  
424 0.1% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.6%  
426 0.1% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.3% 99.4%  
361 0.1% 99.1%  
362 0.2% 99.0%  
363 0.6% 98.8%  
364 0.4% 98%  
365 0.3% 98%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 1.1% 97%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 1.3% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 0.8% 92%  
372 2% 91%  
373 3% 89%  
374 1.3% 86%  
375 1.3% 85%  
376 4% 84%  
377 3% 80%  
378 1.1% 77%  
379 4% 76%  
380 4% 72%  
381 2% 67%  
382 4% 66%  
383 5% 61%  
384 2% 56%  
385 3% 54% Median
386 6% 52%  
387 3% 45%  
388 2% 42%  
389 6% 40%  
390 4% 34%  
391 2% 30%  
392 3% 28%  
393 5% 25%  
394 1.5% 20%  
395 2% 19%  
396 3% 16%  
397 2% 13%  
398 1.1% 11%  
399 3% 10%  
400 1.1% 8%  
401 0.8% 7%  
402 0.9% 6%  
403 1.4% 5%  
404 0.3% 3%  
405 0.6% 3%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.2% 1.4%  
409 0.3% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.6%  
412 0.2% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.2% 99.9%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.5% 99.3%  
346 0.5% 98.8%  
347 0.1% 98%  
348 0% 98%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 2% 98%  
351 1.3% 96%  
352 0.2% 95%  
353 0% 95%  
354 1.5% 95%  
355 4% 93% Majority
356 3% 90%  
357 0.5% 87%  
358 0.2% 86%  
359 2% 86%  
360 5% 84%  
361 4% 79%  
362 1.0% 74%  
363 0.3% 73%  
364 3% 73%  
365 7% 70%  
366 6% 63%  
367 0.7% 57%  
368 0.2% 56% Median
369 3% 56%  
370 12% 53%  
371 5% 42%  
372 1.2% 36%  
373 0.2% 35%  
374 2% 35%  
375 7% 32%  
376 5% 25%  
377 0.4% 20%  
378 0.3% 20%  
379 3% 19%  
380 4% 17%  
381 3% 12%  
382 0.2% 9%  
383 0.1% 9%  
384 1.3% 9%  
385 3% 8%  
386 1.4% 5%  
387 0.1% 3%  
388 0.2% 3%  
389 0.5% 3%  
390 1.1% 3%  
391 0.5% 2%  
392 0% 1.0%  
393 0% 1.0%  
394 0.2% 1.0%  
395 0.3% 0.7%  
396 0.2% 0.5%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.3% 99.3%  
309 0.3% 98.9%  
310 0.2% 98.6%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 1.0% 98%  
313 0.8% 97%  
314 0.6% 96%  
315 0.4% 96%  
316 1.1% 95%  
317 2% 94%  
318 2% 92%  
319 1.3% 90%  
320 1.1% 89%  
321 3% 88%  
322 3% 85%  
323 3% 82%  
324 2% 79%  
325 3% 77%  
326 4% 75%  
327 3% 70%  
328 3% 67%  
329 2% 64%  
330 3% 62%  
331 7% 59%  
332 4% 52% Median
333 3% 48%  
334 3% 46%  
335 3% 43%  
336 6% 40%  
337 5% 34%  
338 3% 29%  
339 2% 26%  
340 3% 24% Last Result
341 4% 21%  
342 3% 17%  
343 2% 14%  
344 2% 12%  
345 1.3% 10%  
346 2% 9%  
347 1.0% 7%  
348 0.7% 6%  
349 0.8% 5%  
350 0.9% 5%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.3% 1.1%  
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.2% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
301 0.3% 99.0%  
302 0.5% 98.7%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 0.6% 97%  
306 0.9% 97%  
307 1.0% 96%  
308 1.4% 95%  
309 1.2% 93%  
310 1.3% 92%  
311 2% 91%  
312 3% 89%  
313 2% 87%  
314 2% 84%  
315 3% 82%  
316 3% 79%  
317 4% 76%  
318 3% 72%  
319 4% 69%  
320 3% 66%  
321 4% 63%  
322 4% 59% Median
323 4% 55%  
324 4% 51%  
325 4% 47%  
326 4% 43%  
327 3% 39%  
328 3% 36%  
329 4% 33%  
330 3% 29%  
331 3% 26%  
332 3% 23%  
333 3% 20%  
334 3% 17%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 13%  
337 1.3% 11%  
338 2% 9%  
339 1.1% 7%  
340 1.2% 6%  
341 0.9% 5%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 0.8%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.2% 98.8%  
302 0.4% 98.6%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 0.3% 97%  
306 1.4% 97%  
307 0.9% 95%  
308 0.8% 94%  
309 1.1% 93%  
310 3% 92%  
311 1.1% 90%  
312 2% 89%  
313 3% 87%  
314 2% 84%  
315 1.5% 81%  
316 5% 80%  
317 3% 75%  
318 2% 72%  
319 4% 70%  
320 6% 66%  
321 2% 60%  
322 3% 58% Median
323 6% 55%  
324 3% 48%  
325 2% 46%  
326 5% 44%  
327 4% 39%  
328 2% 34%  
329 4% 33%  
330 4% 28%  
331 1.1% 24%  
332 3% 23%  
333 4% 20%  
334 1.3% 16%  
335 1.3% 15%  
336 3% 14%  
337 2% 11%  
338 0.8% 9%  
339 2% 8%  
340 1.3% 6%  
341 0.5% 5%  
342 1.1% 4%  
343 0.8% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.2%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0.3% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 98.9%  
280 0.4% 98.8%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 1.0% 97%  
285 1.0% 96%  
286 0.9% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 1.3% 92%  
289 1.0% 91%  
290 3% 90%  
291 2% 87%  
292 2% 85%  
293 2% 83%  
294 3% 80%  
295 3% 77%  
296 4% 75%  
297 4% 71%  
298 3% 67%  
299 5% 64%  
300 4% 59%  
301 3% 55%  
302 2% 52% Median
303 6% 50%  
304 3% 44%  
305 4% 41%  
306 5% 37%  
307 3% 32%  
308 3% 29%  
309 4% 26%  
310 2% 23%  
311 3% 20%  
312 3% 17%  
313 2% 14%  
314 1.3% 12%  
315 2% 11%  
316 2% 9%  
317 1.0% 8%  
318 1.1% 6%  
319 0.9% 5%  
320 0.9% 5%  
321 0.8% 4%  
322 0.7% 3%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.2%  
326 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
327 0.2% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.3% 99.2%  
249 0.5% 98.9%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.5% 98%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 0.9% 97%  
254 1.1% 96%  
255 1.1% 95%  
256 2% 94%  
257 2% 92%  
258 2% 91%  
259 2% 88%  
260 2% 86%  
261 2% 84%  
262 3% 82%  
263 4% 79%  
264 4% 75%  
265 4% 72%  
266 4% 68%  
267 3% 64%  
268 4% 60%  
269 4% 56% Median
270 5% 53%  
271 3% 48%  
272 3% 45%  
273 3% 42%  
274 3% 39%  
275 3% 35%  
276 4% 33%  
277 3% 29%  
278 3% 26%  
279 3% 23%  
280 3% 19%  
281 2% 17%  
282 2% 14%  
283 2% 12%  
284 1.4% 10%  
285 2% 9%  
286 1.1% 7%  
287 1.1% 6%  
288 0.9% 5%  
289 0.9% 4%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.5% 2%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.2% 0.9%  
296 0.3% 0.7%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.1% 99.4%  
153 0.4% 99.3%  
154 0.3% 99.0%  
155 0.3% 98.7%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.9% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 2% 95%  
161 1.5% 94%  
162 2% 92%  
163 2% 90%  
164 2% 88%  
165 4% 86%  
166 3% 81%  
167 4% 79%  
168 4% 75%  
169 6% 71%  
170 5% 65%  
171 4% 60%  
172 5% 57% Median
173 4% 51%  
174 5% 47%  
175 3% 42%  
176 5% 39%  
177 4% 34%  
178 4% 31%  
179 4% 27%  
180 2% 23%  
181 4% 21%  
182 2% 17%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 13%  
185 2% 11%  
186 1.2% 9%  
187 1.2% 8%  
188 2% 6%  
189 0.9% 5%  
190 0.8% 4%  
191 0.7% 3%  
192 0.8% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.2% 1.2%  
195 0.3% 1.0%  
196 0.1% 0.7%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.1% 99.6%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.3% 99.3%  
154 0.4% 99.0%  
155 0.5% 98.7%  
156 0.5% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.9% 97%  
159 1.2% 96%  
160 1.5% 95%  
161 2% 93%  
162 2% 92%  
163 2% 90%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 85%  
166 3% 82%  
167 3% 79%  
168 5% 76%  
169 3% 71%  
170 4% 67%  
171 5% 63%  
172 5% 58% Median
173 4% 53%  
174 5% 49%  
175 4% 44%  
176 3% 40%  
177 6% 37%  
178 3% 31%  
179 3% 28%  
180 4% 25%  
181 3% 21%  
182 3% 18%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 12%  
185 1.3% 10%  
186 2% 9%  
187 1.2% 7%  
188 0.9% 6%  
189 0.9% 5%  
190 1.2% 4%  
191 0.6% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 2%  
194 0.4% 1.2%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations