Opinion Poll by Kantar, 25 February–3 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.0% 24.9–27.2% 24.6–27.5% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.2–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 194 185–202 183–205 181–207 177–211
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 141 134–150 132–151 130–154 126–157
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 112–127 111–129 109–131 106–134
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 67–82 66–84 63–87
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 62–73 60–75 59–76 56–79
Die Linke 69 67 62–73 60–75 59–76 57–79
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–49 39–51 38–52 36–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
173 0% 100%  
174 0.1% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.1% 99.8%  
177 0.2% 99.6%  
178 0.3% 99.4%  
179 0.4% 99.1%  
180 0.8% 98.7%  
181 0.7% 98%  
182 1.2% 97%  
183 2% 96%  
184 3% 94%  
185 2% 92%  
186 3% 90%  
187 3% 87%  
188 5% 84%  
189 4% 79%  
190 6% 75%  
191 6% 69%  
192 6% 63%  
193 6% 57%  
194 6% 51% Median
195 6% 45%  
196 5% 39%  
197 5% 34%  
198 6% 29%  
199 5% 23%  
200 3% 19% Last Result
201 3% 15%  
202 3% 12%  
203 2% 9%  
204 2% 7%  
205 1.3% 5%  
206 1.3% 4%  
207 0.7% 3%  
208 0.7% 2%  
209 0.5% 1.4%  
210 0.3% 0.9%  
211 0.2% 0.6%  
212 0.2% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.2% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.2% 99.3%  
129 0.6% 99.2%  
130 1.5% 98.5%  
131 2% 97%  
132 0.9% 96%  
133 0.8% 95%  
134 4% 94%  
135 7% 90%  
136 6% 83%  
137 2% 77%  
138 2% 75%  
139 9% 73%  
140 12% 64%  
141 7% 52% Median
142 2% 45%  
143 3% 43%  
144 9% 40%  
145 8% 31%  
146 3% 23%  
147 1.1% 20%  
148 2% 18%  
149 6% 16%  
150 5% 10%  
151 1.2% 6%  
152 0.4% 4%  
153 1.0% 4%  
154 1.4% 3%  
155 1.0% 2%  
156 0.2% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.5%  
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 0.7% 98.6%  
109 1.2% 98%  
110 2% 97%  
111 3% 95%  
112 3% 92%  
113 3% 89%  
114 4% 86%  
115 6% 82%  
116 6% 76%  
117 8% 70%  
118 6% 63%  
119 7% 57% Median
120 6% 50%  
121 8% 44%  
122 8% 36%  
123 6% 28%  
124 5% 22%  
125 3% 18%  
126 4% 14%  
127 3% 11%  
128 3% 8%  
129 2% 5%  
130 1.1% 4%  
131 0.8% 3%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.1%  
134 0.3% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 1.1% 99.1%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 92%  
70 4% 87%  
71 8% 83%  
72 7% 75%  
73 8% 68%  
74 9% 60%  
75 10% 51% Median
76 6% 41%  
77 6% 35%  
78 9% 28%  
79 5% 20%  
80 4% 15%  
81 4% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.6% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 1.1% 99.2%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 4% 95%  
62 4% 91%  
63 5% 87%  
64 8% 82%  
65 7% 73%  
66 10% 66%  
67 11% 57% Median
68 7% 46%  
69 7% 39%  
70 10% 31%  
71 4% 21%  
72 5% 17%  
73 4% 11%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.2% 3%  
77 0.8% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.8% 99.0%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 4% 91%  
63 7% 87%  
64 7% 80%  
65 8% 73%  
66 9% 66%  
67 8% 57% Median
68 9% 48%  
69 7% 39% Last Result
70 9% 32%  
71 7% 23%  
72 4% 15%  
73 4% 11%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 1.0% 99.2%  
38 2% 98%  
39 2% 96%  
40 5% 94%  
41 6% 89%  
42 8% 83%  
43 12% 75%  
44 13% 63%  
45 12% 50% Median
46 8% 39% Last Result
47 7% 30%  
48 6% 23%  
49 8% 18%  
50 4% 9%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.2% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 500 100% 491–508 489–511 486–513 482–517
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 437–456 436–459 433–460 430–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 425 100% 416–435 413–437 411–439 407–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 380 100% 371–390 368–393 366–395 361–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 380 100% 371–390 368–393 366–395 361–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 358 68% 349–368 346–371 343–373 339–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 329 0% 319–338 316–341 314–343 310–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0% 319–338 316–340 314–343 309–348
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 313 0% 304–323 301–325 299–328 294–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 306 0% 297–315 294–318 292–320 287–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 252–270 249–273 247–275 243–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 178–195 176–198 174–200 170–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 187 0% 178–195 176–197 174–199 170–204

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 99.9%  
479 0% 99.9%  
480 0.1% 99.9%  
481 0.2% 99.7%  
482 0.2% 99.6%  
483 0.2% 99.4%  
484 0.4% 99.2%  
485 0.5% 98.8%  
486 0.9% 98%  
487 1.1% 97%  
488 1.0% 96%  
489 1.5% 95%  
490 3% 94%  
491 4% 91%  
492 2% 87%  
493 3% 85%  
494 2% 82%  
495 7% 80%  
496 6% 73%  
497 5% 67%  
498 4% 62%  
499 3% 57% Median
500 8% 54%  
501 8% 45%  
502 4% 38%  
503 4% 33%  
504 4% 29%  
505 5% 25%  
506 4% 20%  
507 3% 15%  
508 2% 12%  
509 2% 10%  
510 2% 8%  
511 2% 5%  
512 1.0% 4%  
513 0.7% 3%  
514 0.7% 2%  
515 0.3% 1.4%  
516 0.5% 1.1%  
517 0.2% 0.6%  
518 0.1% 0.4%  
519 0.1% 0.2%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0% 99.8%  
428 0% 99.7%  
429 0.2% 99.7%  
430 0.4% 99.5%  
431 0.4% 99.1%  
432 1.0% 98.8%  
433 0.6% 98%  
434 0.2% 97%  
435 0.2% 97%  
436 4% 97%  
437 4% 93%  
438 1.0% 89%  
439 1.0% 88%  
440 2% 87%  
441 4% 85%  
442 2% 81%  
443 6% 79%  
444 10% 73%  
445 2% 62%  
446 0.6% 60%  
447 6% 59% Median
448 12% 53%  
449 8% 41%  
450 2% 33%  
451 3% 31%  
452 2% 28%  
453 2% 26%  
454 4% 24%  
455 8% 20%  
456 3% 12%  
457 0.2% 8%  
458 0.5% 8%  
459 3% 8%  
460 2% 5%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.6% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.4%  
464 0.1% 1.0%  
465 0.1% 0.9%  
466 0.3% 0.9%  
467 0.4% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.2% 99.7%  
407 0.2% 99.5%  
408 0.4% 99.3%  
409 0.4% 98.9%  
410 0.7% 98.5%  
411 1.0% 98%  
412 0.8% 97%  
413 1.4% 96%  
414 2% 95%  
415 2% 93%  
416 3% 91%  
417 3% 88%  
418 3% 85%  
419 4% 83%  
420 4% 79%  
421 5% 75%  
422 5% 70%  
423 4% 65%  
424 5% 61%  
425 6% 56% Median
426 6% 49%  
427 4% 44%  
428 6% 39%  
429 4% 33%  
430 5% 29%  
431 5% 24%  
432 3% 19%  
433 3% 16%  
434 3% 13%  
435 2% 11%  
436 2% 8%  
437 1.5% 6%  
438 1.5% 5%  
439 0.9% 3%  
440 0.7% 2%  
441 0.6% 2%  
442 0.4% 1.2%  
443 0.3% 0.8%  
444 0.2% 0.5%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.2% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.3%  
364 0.4% 98.9%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.8% 97%  
368 1.5% 96%  
369 1.1% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 3% 92%  
372 2% 89%  
373 3% 87%  
374 3% 83%  
375 3% 80%  
376 6% 77%  
377 4% 71%  
378 6% 67%  
379 4% 61%  
380 7% 56%  
381 4% 49% Median
382 7% 45%  
383 4% 39%  
384 6% 35%  
385 4% 29%  
386 4% 25%  
387 3% 21%  
388 4% 17%  
389 2% 13%  
390 3% 11%  
391 2% 9%  
392 1.4% 7%  
393 1.1% 5%  
394 1.3% 4%  
395 1.0% 3%  
396 0.6% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.5%  
398 0.5% 1.2%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.6%  
362 0.3% 99.4%  
363 0.3% 99.2%  
364 0.3% 98.9%  
365 0.8% 98.5%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 1.3% 97%  
368 0.9% 96%  
369 2% 95%  
370 2% 93%  
371 2% 91%  
372 3% 89%  
373 5% 86%  
374 4% 81%  
375 4% 77%  
376 4% 73%  
377 4% 69%  
378 5% 65%  
379 6% 60%  
380 8% 54% Median
381 6% 46%  
382 4% 40%  
383 4% 36%  
384 3% 32%  
385 4% 28%  
386 4% 24%  
387 3% 20%  
388 3% 17%  
389 4% 14%  
390 3% 11%  
391 2% 8%  
392 0.8% 6%  
393 0.9% 5%  
394 1.4% 4%  
395 1.1% 3%  
396 0.6% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.2%  
398 0.2% 0.9%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.3% 99.5%  
341 0.3% 99.2%  
342 0.6% 98.9%  
343 1.1% 98%  
344 0.8% 97%  
345 1.1% 96%  
346 2% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 2% 92%  
349 2% 90%  
350 2% 88%  
351 4% 86%  
352 6% 82%  
353 4% 76%  
354 4% 73%  
355 6% 68% Majority
356 4% 62%  
357 4% 58%  
358 5% 53% Median
359 4% 48%  
360 5% 44%  
361 7% 39%  
362 5% 32%  
363 4% 27%  
364 6% 23%  
365 3% 18%  
366 3% 15%  
367 2% 12%  
368 2% 10%  
369 1.4% 8%  
370 2% 7%  
371 2% 5%  
372 0.9% 4%  
373 0.8% 3%  
374 0.7% 2%  
375 0.5% 1.3%  
376 0.2% 0.8%  
377 0.2% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.5% 99.3%  
312 0.3% 98.8%  
313 0.6% 98.5%  
314 1.0% 98%  
315 1.3% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 1.4% 95%  
318 2% 93%  
319 3% 91%  
320 2% 89%  
321 4% 87%  
322 3% 83%  
323 4% 79%  
324 4% 75%  
325 6% 71%  
326 4% 65%  
327 7% 61% Median
328 4% 55%  
329 7% 51%  
330 4% 44%  
331 6% 39%  
332 4% 33%  
333 6% 29%  
334 3% 23%  
335 3% 20%  
336 3% 17%  
337 2% 13%  
338 3% 11%  
339 2% 8%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 1.5% 5%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.7% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.1%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.3% 99.3%  
312 0.4% 99.0%  
313 0.6% 98.5%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 1.2% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 2% 95%  
318 2% 93%  
319 2% 91%  
320 3% 89%  
321 3% 86%  
322 4% 83%  
323 4% 79%  
324 4% 76%  
325 7% 72%  
326 5% 65%  
327 6% 60% Median
328 5% 54%  
329 5% 49%  
330 6% 44%  
331 6% 38%  
332 4% 32%  
333 5% 28%  
334 3% 24%  
335 4% 21%  
336 4% 17%  
337 2% 13%  
338 2% 10%  
339 2% 8%  
340 2% 7%  
341 1.4% 5%  
342 0.7% 4%  
343 0.9% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 1.0%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.2% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.3% 99.3%  
297 0.4% 99.0%  
298 0.6% 98.5%  
299 1.0% 98%  
300 0.8% 97%  
301 1.2% 96%  
302 2% 95%  
303 2% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 3% 89%  
306 3% 86%  
307 3% 83%  
308 5% 80%  
309 3% 75%  
310 6% 71%  
311 5% 65%  
312 6% 61%  
313 6% 55%  
314 5% 49% Median
315 6% 43%  
316 5% 37%  
317 5% 32%  
318 5% 27%  
319 3% 22%  
320 4% 19%  
321 3% 16%  
322 3% 13%  
323 2% 10%  
324 1.4% 8%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.2% 5%  
327 0.8% 4%  
328 0.9% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.5% 1.4%  
331 0.3% 0.9%  
332 0.2% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.5%  
289 0.5% 99.2%  
290 0.4% 98.7%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.9% 98%  
293 1.4% 97%  
294 2% 95%  
295 2% 93%  
296 1.4% 92%  
297 2% 90%  
298 5% 88%  
299 4% 84%  
300 4% 80%  
301 4% 76%  
302 3% 72%  
303 6% 69%  
304 6% 63%  
305 6% 57%  
306 4% 51% Median
307 5% 47%  
308 4% 41%  
309 8% 37%  
310 4% 29%  
311 2% 25%  
312 3% 23%  
313 4% 19%  
314 4% 16%  
315 3% 11%  
316 1.5% 9%  
317 1.4% 7%  
318 2% 6%  
319 1.3% 4%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.4% 1.3%  
324 0.4% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0.1% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.2% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0.3% 99.4%  
245 0.4% 99.1%  
246 0.6% 98.7%  
247 1.1% 98%  
248 0.9% 97%  
249 1.3% 96%  
250 1.2% 95%  
251 3% 94%  
252 2% 91%  
253 3% 88%  
254 3% 85%  
255 3% 83%  
256 6% 79%  
257 4% 73%  
258 5% 69%  
259 5% 64%  
260 6% 60% Median
261 6% 54%  
262 6% 48%  
263 6% 42%  
264 4% 36%  
265 5% 32%  
266 5% 27%  
267 4% 22%  
268 3% 18%  
269 3% 15%  
270 3% 12%  
271 2% 9%  
272 2% 7%  
273 1.1% 6%  
274 1.2% 4%  
275 0.8% 3%  
276 0.7% 2%  
277 0.5% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.2% 99.8%  
170 0.2% 99.6%  
171 0.4% 99.4%  
172 0.4% 99.1%  
173 0.5% 98.6%  
174 1.0% 98%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 2% 94%  
178 3% 92%  
179 3% 90%  
180 4% 87%  
181 3% 83%  
182 5% 80%  
183 5% 75%  
184 6% 70%  
185 6% 64%  
186 6% 59% Median
187 7% 53%  
188 6% 46%  
189 7% 40%  
190 4% 33%  
191 5% 29%  
192 4% 24%  
193 5% 20%  
194 3% 14%  
195 2% 11%  
196 2% 9%  
197 1.4% 7%  
198 1.3% 5%  
199 1.0% 4%  
200 1.1% 3%  
201 0.5% 2%  
202 0.5% 1.3%  
203 0.2% 0.8%  
204 0.2% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.2% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.6%  
171 0.4% 99.5%  
172 0.4% 99.1%  
173 0.7% 98.8%  
174 0.7% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 1.2% 96%  
177 2% 94%  
178 2% 92%  
179 4% 90%  
180 2% 86%  
181 6% 84%  
182 3% 78%  
183 6% 75%  
184 3% 69%  
185 8% 66%  
186 5% 58% Median
187 7% 53%  
188 6% 46%  
189 6% 40%  
190 6% 34%  
191 6% 29%  
192 4% 22%  
193 4% 18%  
194 3% 14%  
195 3% 11%  
196 2% 9%  
197 2% 6%  
198 1.1% 5%  
199 1.0% 4%  
200 0.6% 2%  
201 0.4% 2%  
202 0.6% 1.5%  
203 0.2% 0.9%  
204 0.3% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations