Opinion Poll by Forsa, 2–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 26.8% 25.5–28.1% 25.2–28.5% 24.9–28.8% 24.3–29.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.2% 5.5–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 204 194–215 191–217 189–219 185–224
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 128–146 126–148 124–150 120–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 114–130 112–133 110–134 106–138
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–83 68–85 67–87 64–90
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 56–67 53–69 52–71 50–74
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 53–70 50–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 47 42–53 41–54 40–56 37–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.3% 99.6%  
186 0.3% 99.4%  
187 0.6% 99.1%  
188 0.4% 98%  
189 1.4% 98%  
190 0.5% 97%  
191 2% 96%  
192 0.8% 94%  
193 3% 93%  
194 1.2% 90%  
195 3% 89%  
196 2% 86%  
197 4% 84%  
198 2% 80%  
199 8% 78%  
200 3% 70% Last Result
201 7% 67%  
202 4% 59%  
203 3% 55%  
204 4% 52% Median
205 6% 48%  
206 3% 42%  
207 8% 39%  
208 2% 32%  
209 6% 29%  
210 2% 23%  
211 4% 21%  
212 2% 17%  
213 4% 15%  
214 1.1% 12%  
215 4% 11%  
216 1.0% 7%  
217 2% 6%  
218 0.8% 4%  
219 1.4% 3%  
220 0.2% 2%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.2% 1.0%  
223 0.3% 0.8%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0.2% 0.4%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.4%  
122 0.5% 99.2%  
123 0.6% 98.7%  
124 0.9% 98%  
125 1.2% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 3% 92%  
129 4% 90%  
130 3% 86%  
131 5% 83%  
132 3% 78%  
133 5% 75%  
134 5% 70%  
135 6% 65%  
136 5% 59%  
137 7% 54% Median
138 6% 47%  
139 6% 41%  
140 5% 35%  
141 6% 30%  
142 5% 24%  
143 4% 20%  
144 3% 16%  
145 3% 13%  
146 3% 10%  
147 2% 7%  
148 1.5% 6%  
149 1.1% 4%  
150 0.8% 3%  
151 0.8% 2%  
152 0.4% 1.5%  
153 0.4% 1.1%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.6% 99.0%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 2% 93%  
114 3% 91%  
115 4% 88%  
116 4% 84%  
117 5% 80%  
118 6% 74%  
119 5% 69%  
120 6% 63%  
121 7% 57%  
122 5% 50% Median
123 6% 45%  
124 5% 39%  
125 6% 34%  
126 5% 28%  
127 4% 22%  
128 4% 18%  
129 3% 14%  
130 2% 11%  
131 2% 9%  
132 2% 7%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.2% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.6% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.7%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.7% 99.2%  
66 1.0% 98.6%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 3% 91%  
71 4% 88%  
72 4% 83%  
73 6% 79%  
74 8% 73%  
75 10% 64%  
76 7% 55% Median
77 6% 47%  
78 6% 41%  
79 6% 35%  
80 6% 29%  
81 6% 23%  
82 5% 17%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.2% 4%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.3%  
90 0.3% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.1%  
52 1.1% 98.6%  
53 3% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 2% 93%  
56 7% 90%  
57 6% 84%  
58 5% 77%  
59 9% 72%  
60 9% 64%  
61 8% 55% Median
62 8% 47%  
63 8% 39%  
64 8% 32%  
65 6% 23%  
66 3% 17%  
67 4% 14%  
68 4% 10%  
69 1.3% 6%  
70 1.3% 5%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.3% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 99.4%  
52 0.7% 99.0%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 6% 93%  
56 7% 87%  
57 10% 80%  
58 7% 70%  
59 6% 64%  
60 5% 57%  
61 4% 52% Median
62 4% 48%  
63 6% 44%  
64 7% 37%  
65 8% 31%  
66 7% 22%  
67 6% 15%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 0.6% 99.4%  
39 1.2% 98.8%  
40 2% 98%  
41 3% 95%  
42 5% 92%  
43 6% 88%  
44 8% 82%  
45 8% 74%  
46 8% 66% Last Result
47 10% 58% Median
48 9% 48%  
49 9% 39%  
50 8% 30%  
51 5% 22%  
52 5% 17%  
53 4% 11%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.6%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 510 100% 500–520 497–522 495–525 490–529
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 450 100% 439–460 436–463 433–465 428–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 434 100% 423–446 421–448 418–451 414–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 378–400 375–403 373–405 367–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 389 100% 378–399 374–402 372–404 367–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 373 98.7% 362–384 359–387 357–389 352–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 328 0.1% 317–339 314–342 311–344 306–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 309–331 306–334 304–336 299–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 309–331 306–334 304–336 298–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 313 0% 301–324 299–326 296–329 292–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 248–269 245–272 243–275 238–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 183 0% 174–192 171–195 169–198 165–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 174–193 171–195 169–197 164–202

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 99.9%  
487 0% 99.9%  
488 0.1% 99.8%  
489 0.1% 99.8%  
490 0.2% 99.7%  
491 0.2% 99.5%  
492 0.3% 99.3%  
493 0.5% 99.0%  
494 0.7% 98.6%  
495 0.7% 98%  
496 1.2% 97%  
497 1.0% 96%  
498 2% 95%  
499 2% 93%  
500 3% 91%  
501 2% 89%  
502 4% 86%  
503 2% 83%  
504 4% 80%  
505 5% 76%  
506 4% 71%  
507 6% 67%  
508 4% 61%  
509 4% 57%  
510 3% 53% Median
511 5% 50%  
512 6% 45%  
513 4% 39%  
514 4% 35%  
515 4% 31%  
516 4% 27%  
517 4% 22%  
518 4% 18%  
519 3% 14%  
520 2% 11%  
521 2% 9%  
522 1.3% 6%  
523 2% 5%  
524 0.8% 3%  
525 0.9% 3%  
526 0.4% 2%  
527 0.4% 1.2%  
528 0.3% 0.8%  
529 0.2% 0.6%  
530 0.1% 0.4%  
531 0.1% 0.2%  
532 0.1% 0.2%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.5%  
430 0.3% 99.3%  
431 0.3% 99.0%  
432 0.6% 98.7%  
433 0.6% 98%  
434 0.8% 97%  
435 1.1% 97%  
436 1.4% 96%  
437 1.4% 94%  
438 2% 93%  
439 2% 91%  
440 3% 89%  
441 3% 86%  
442 3% 84%  
443 2% 80%  
444 4% 78%  
445 4% 74%  
446 5% 69%  
447 4% 64%  
448 4% 60%  
449 5% 56% Median
450 5% 51%  
451 5% 47%  
452 5% 42%  
453 4% 37%  
454 5% 32%  
455 3% 27%  
456 4% 24%  
457 3% 20%  
458 3% 17%  
459 3% 14%  
460 2% 11%  
461 2% 9%  
462 1.1% 7%  
463 1.3% 6%  
464 1.1% 4%  
465 0.8% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.4% 1.3%  
469 0.2% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0.1% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.3% 99.5%  
415 0.3% 99.2%  
416 0.4% 98.9%  
417 0.6% 98%  
418 0.6% 98%  
419 1.0% 97%  
420 1.1% 96%  
421 2% 95%  
422 1.4% 93%  
423 2% 92%  
424 2% 90%  
425 3% 88%  
426 3% 84%  
427 3% 81%  
428 4% 78%  
429 4% 74%  
430 5% 71%  
431 4% 65%  
432 4% 62%  
433 3% 58%  
434 6% 54% Median
435 3% 49%  
436 5% 45%  
437 4% 41%  
438 4% 37%  
439 4% 33%  
440 4% 29%  
441 3% 25%  
442 3% 21%  
443 4% 19%  
444 3% 15%  
445 2% 12%  
446 2% 10%  
447 2% 8%  
448 1.4% 6%  
449 1.4% 5%  
450 0.7% 3%  
451 0.9% 3%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.2%  
454 0.3% 0.9%  
455 0.2% 0.6%  
456 0.2% 0.4%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.3% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.3% 99.0%  
371 0.7% 98.7%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 1.3% 97%  
375 1.3% 96%  
376 1.1% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 2% 91%  
379 2% 89%  
380 2% 87%  
381 6% 85%  
382 2% 79%  
383 3% 77%  
384 4% 74%  
385 4% 71%  
386 4% 67%  
387 4% 62%  
388 5% 58% Median
389 6% 53%  
390 4% 47%  
391 5% 43%  
392 3% 38%  
393 5% 36%  
394 3% 31%  
395 4% 27%  
396 5% 24%  
397 3% 19%  
398 2% 16%  
399 3% 14%  
400 2% 11%  
401 2% 9%  
402 1.5% 7%  
403 2% 6%  
404 0.9% 4%  
405 0.8% 3%  
406 0.6% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.4% 1.5%  
409 0.2% 1.0%  
410 0.4% 0.8%  
411 0.1% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.5%  
368 0.2% 99.3%  
369 0.3% 99.1%  
370 0.4% 98.7%  
371 0.8% 98%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.9% 97%  
374 0.9% 96%  
375 2% 95%  
376 2% 93%  
377 2% 92%  
378 2% 90%  
379 4% 88%  
380 3% 85%  
381 2% 82%  
382 4% 79%  
383 3% 76%  
384 5% 72%  
385 3% 68%  
386 6% 64%  
387 4% 59%  
388 4% 55% Median
389 5% 51%  
390 5% 46%  
391 5% 41%  
392 5% 36%  
393 5% 31%  
394 4% 27%  
395 4% 23%  
396 3% 20%  
397 3% 17%  
398 3% 14%  
399 2% 11%  
400 1.4% 9%  
401 2% 7%  
402 1.3% 6%  
403 1.2% 5%  
404 0.9% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.4% 1.4%  
408 0.3% 1.0%  
409 0.2% 0.7%  
410 0.2% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.5%  
353 0.3% 99.3%  
354 0.3% 99.0%  
355 0.5% 98.7% Majority
356 0.6% 98%  
357 1.0% 98%  
358 0.7% 97%  
359 1.4% 96%  
360 1.4% 94%  
361 2% 93%  
362 3% 91%  
363 2% 89%  
364 3% 86%  
365 3% 83%  
366 4% 80%  
367 4% 76%  
368 5% 73%  
369 2% 68%  
370 5% 65%  
371 4% 61%  
372 5% 57%  
373 3% 52% Median
374 4% 48%  
375 4% 44%  
376 4% 40%  
377 3% 36%  
378 4% 33%  
379 4% 28%  
380 3% 25%  
381 4% 22%  
382 3% 18%  
383 2% 15%  
384 3% 12%  
385 2% 10%  
386 2% 8%  
387 1.3% 6%  
388 0.9% 5%  
389 1.1% 4%  
390 0.6% 2%  
391 0.6% 2%  
392 0.4% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 0.9%  
394 0.2% 0.7%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1% Last Result
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.3% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0.4% 98.9%  
310 0.4% 98.5%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 1.2% 97%  
313 1.0% 96%  
314 1.2% 95%  
315 2% 94%  
316 2% 92%  
317 2% 90%  
318 2% 88%  
319 3% 86%  
320 4% 84%  
321 3% 80%  
322 3% 77%  
323 4% 73%  
324 4% 70%  
325 3% 65%  
326 6% 62%  
327 4% 57% Median
328 5% 53%  
329 6% 47%  
330 5% 42%  
331 4% 36%  
332 4% 33%  
333 5% 29%  
334 3% 25%  
335 3% 22%  
336 2% 18%  
337 2% 16%  
338 4% 14%  
339 1.5% 10%  
340 2% 9% Last Result
341 2% 7%  
342 1.5% 6%  
343 1.2% 4%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.7% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.4% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.2%  
301 0.4% 99.0%  
302 0.4% 98.5%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.8% 98%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 1.5% 94%  
308 2% 93%  
309 2% 91%  
310 3% 89%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 84%  
313 5% 81%  
314 4% 76%  
315 3% 73%  
316 5% 69%  
317 3% 64%  
318 5% 62%  
319 4% 57%  
320 6% 53% Median
321 5% 47%  
322 4% 42%  
323 4% 38%  
324 4% 33%  
325 4% 29%  
326 3% 26%  
327 2% 23%  
328 6% 21%  
329 2% 15%  
330 2% 13%  
331 2% 11%  
332 2% 9%  
333 1.1% 7%  
334 1.3% 6%  
335 1.3% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.7% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.3% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
301 0.6% 99.2%  
302 0.4% 98.6%  
303 0.2% 98%  
304 1.1% 98%  
305 1.3% 97%  
306 0.8% 96%  
307 0.8% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 3% 92%  
310 0.9% 89%  
311 3% 88%  
312 5% 85%  
313 3% 80%  
314 1.2% 77%  
315 6% 76%  
316 6% 70%  
317 2% 64%  
318 3% 62%  
319 7% 59%  
320 5% 52% Median
321 3% 47%  
322 3% 44%  
323 8% 41%  
324 4% 32%  
325 2% 28%  
326 4% 26%  
327 6% 23%  
328 2% 17%  
329 2% 15%  
330 3% 13%  
331 3% 11%  
332 0.9% 8%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 2% 6%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.8% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.2% 0.5%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.2% 99.7%  
292 0.3% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 98.9%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 1.0% 96%  
299 1.1% 95%  
300 2% 94%  
301 3% 93%  
302 3% 90%  
303 2% 87%  
304 3% 85%  
305 3% 82%  
306 4% 79%  
307 5% 75%  
308 3% 70%  
309 4% 66%  
310 3% 63%  
311 5% 59%  
312 4% 54% Median
313 4% 50%  
314 3% 46%  
315 4% 43%  
316 6% 39%  
317 4% 33%  
318 3% 29%  
319 3% 26%  
320 4% 23%  
321 4% 20%  
322 3% 15%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 2% 7% Last Result
327 1.0% 5%  
328 0.8% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.7% 2%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.2% 99.6%  
239 0.3% 99.4%  
240 0.3% 99.1%  
241 0.6% 98.9%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.8% 98%  
244 1.0% 97%  
245 1.2% 96%  
246 1.1% 95%  
247 2% 94%  
248 3% 92%  
249 2% 89%  
250 3% 87%  
251 3% 84%  
252 4% 81%  
253 4% 78%  
254 4% 74%  
255 4% 70%  
256 5% 65%  
257 5% 60%  
258 6% 56%  
259 4% 50% Median
260 5% 46%  
261 4% 41%  
262 4% 37%  
263 5% 33%  
264 5% 28%  
265 3% 24%  
266 4% 21%  
267 3% 17%  
268 2% 14%  
269 2% 11%  
270 1.5% 9%  
271 2% 8%  
272 1.5% 6%  
273 1.0% 4%  
274 0.8% 4%  
275 0.8% 3%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.4% 1.5%  
278 0.3% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.2% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.5%  
166 0.3% 99.3%  
167 0.4% 98.9%  
168 0.6% 98.5%  
169 1.0% 98%  
170 0.9% 97%  
171 1.3% 96%  
172 2% 95%  
173 2% 93%  
174 3% 91%  
175 2% 87%  
176 3% 85%  
177 5% 82%  
178 5% 77%  
179 5% 72%  
180 4% 67%  
181 5% 63%  
182 7% 58%  
183 6% 52% Median
184 5% 46%  
185 5% 42%  
186 5% 37%  
187 5% 32%  
188 5% 27%  
189 3% 22%  
190 3% 19%  
191 3% 16%  
192 3% 12%  
193 2% 10%  
194 1.3% 7%  
195 1.4% 6%  
196 1.2% 5%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.7% 3%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.5% 1.3%  
201 0.2% 0.9%  
202 0.2% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.2% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.5%  
166 0.4% 99.2%  
167 0.4% 98.8%  
168 0.5% 98%  
169 1.0% 98%  
170 1.3% 97%  
171 1.1% 96%  
172 1.4% 94%  
173 3% 93%  
174 3% 90%  
175 4% 87%  
176 3% 83%  
177 3% 80%  
178 4% 77%  
179 4% 73%  
180 5% 68%  
181 4% 63%  
182 6% 59%  
183 7% 53% Median
184 6% 47%  
185 5% 40%  
186 4% 35%  
187 5% 31%  
188 4% 26%  
189 3% 22%  
190 3% 18%  
191 3% 16%  
192 2% 13%  
193 3% 11%  
194 2% 8%  
195 0.8% 6%  
196 0.9% 5%  
197 1.4% 4%  
198 0.8% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.3%  
201 0.3% 1.0%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0.1% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations