Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 5–8 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 163–181 160–183 159–186 154–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 121–135 116–136 114–137 111–140
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 128 120–135 118–138 116–139 111–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 79–92 77–94 76–96 73–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 78 72–84 70–87 68–88 66–92
Die Linke 69 67 61–73 59–75 58–76 56–79
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 47–57 45–59 44–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.4%  
156 0.5% 99.2%  
157 0.7% 98.8%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 1.2% 98%  
160 2% 96%  
161 1.5% 95%  
162 2% 93%  
163 2% 91%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 85%  
166 4% 82%  
167 5% 78%  
168 4% 73%  
169 6% 68%  
170 5% 63%  
171 6% 57%  
172 7% 52% Median
173 3% 45%  
174 6% 41%  
175 5% 35%  
176 5% 30%  
177 6% 25%  
178 3% 19%  
179 3% 16%  
180 3% 13%  
181 2% 11%  
182 2% 8%  
183 2% 6%  
184 1.4% 5%  
185 0.8% 3%  
186 0.9% 3%  
187 0.6% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.8%  
190 0.2% 0.6%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.4% 99.5%  
112 0.5% 99.2%  
113 0.8% 98.6%  
114 1.1% 98%  
115 1.0% 97%  
116 1.2% 96%  
117 1.3% 95%  
118 0.9% 93%  
119 1.2% 92%  
120 0.9% 91%  
121 1.4% 90%  
122 1.5% 89%  
123 2% 87%  
124 3% 85%  
125 4% 82%  
126 5% 78%  
127 8% 73%  
128 8% 65%  
129 9% 56% Median
130 8% 48%  
131 9% 39%  
132 5% 30%  
133 9% 25%  
134 5% 16%  
135 5% 11%  
136 2% 6%  
137 1.5% 4%  
138 1.0% 2%  
139 0.6% 1.4%  
140 0.4% 0.8%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.3% 99.9%  
111 0.3% 99.6%  
112 0.5% 99.3%  
113 0.8% 98.8%  
114 0.2% 98%  
115 0.2% 98%  
116 0.1% 98%  
117 0.7% 97%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 11% 92%  
121 7% 82%  
122 6% 74%  
123 4% 68%  
124 0.6% 64%  
125 0.7% 63%  
126 1.1% 63%  
127 4% 62%  
128 11% 58% Median
129 9% 47%  
130 17% 38%  
131 6% 21%  
132 3% 15%  
133 1.1% 12%  
134 0.2% 11%  
135 0.5% 10%  
136 0.9% 10%  
137 2% 9%  
138 3% 7%  
139 1.4% 4%  
140 2% 2%  
141 0.5% 0.9%  
142 0.1% 0.4%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.6% 99.2%  
75 0.8% 98.7%  
76 1.4% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 4% 92%  
80 4% 88%  
81 5% 84%  
82 5% 79%  
83 7% 73%  
84 10% 66%  
85 8% 57% Median
86 7% 49%  
87 7% 42%  
88 7% 35%  
89 6% 29%  
90 5% 23%  
91 5% 18%  
92 4% 13%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 2% 5%  
96 1.1% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.3%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.6% 99.4%  
68 1.2% 98.7%  
69 1.4% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 4% 92%  
73 5% 87%  
74 7% 82%  
75 6% 75%  
76 7% 69%  
77 8% 62%  
78 10% 54% Median
79 8% 44%  
80 6% 36% Last Result
81 6% 29%  
82 5% 24%  
83 5% 18%  
84 4% 13%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 0.8% 98.8%  
58 1.4% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 4% 92%  
62 5% 88%  
63 9% 83%  
64 7% 75%  
65 11% 68%  
66 7% 57%  
67 8% 50% Median
68 8% 42%  
69 7% 34% Last Result
70 7% 27%  
71 5% 20%  
72 5% 15%  
73 3% 10%  
74 2% 7%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.3%  
44 1.4% 98.5%  
45 3% 97%  
46 4% 94% Last Result
47 6% 90%  
48 8% 84%  
49 10% 77%  
50 10% 67%  
51 10% 56% Median
52 11% 46%  
53 8% 35%  
54 7% 27%  
55 5% 20%  
56 4% 15%  
57 3% 11%  
58 2% 8%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.3% 4%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 469–487 466–490 463–492 458–496
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 420–440 417–442 415–445 409–449
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 428 100% 418–438 416–441 413–443 408–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 387 100% 377–397 375–400 373–403 368–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 352 37% 342–362 339–364 336–366 330–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 349 34% 339–359 337–364 335–366 329–370
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 334 0.2% 323–343 320–346 317–348 311–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 322 0% 312–332 309–334 306–336 300–341
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 309 0% 299–319 296–322 294–324 289–330
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 301 0% 291–311 288–314 286–317 282–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 246–264 241–266 238–268 233–272
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 207 0% 197–215 194–218 192–220 187–224
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 196 0% 186–204 183–206 181–208 176–213

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.7%  
458 0.2% 99.5%  
459 0.2% 99.3%  
460 0.4% 99.1%  
461 0.4% 98.8%  
462 0.5% 98%  
463 0.7% 98%  
464 0.7% 97%  
465 0.9% 97%  
466 0.9% 96% Last Result
467 1.4% 95%  
468 2% 93%  
469 2% 92%  
470 2% 89%  
471 3% 87%  
472 2% 84%  
473 4% 81%  
474 4% 78%  
475 5% 74%  
476 5% 69%  
477 7% 64%  
478 4% 57%  
479 6% 53%  
480 6% 47% Median
481 5% 40%  
482 5% 36%  
483 5% 30%  
484 4% 25%  
485 3% 21%  
486 5% 18%  
487 3% 13%  
488 2% 10%  
489 2% 7%  
490 2% 6%  
491 1.0% 4%  
492 1.0% 3%  
493 0.7% 2%  
494 0.5% 2%  
495 0.3% 1.0%  
496 0.3% 0.7%  
497 0.2% 0.5%  
498 0.1% 0.3%  
499 0.1% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.6%  
410 0.2% 99.5%  
411 0.3% 99.3%  
412 0.3% 98.9%  
413 0.6% 98.6%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 0.8% 98%  
416 1.1% 97%  
417 2% 96%  
418 1.1% 94%  
419 2% 93%  
420 2% 91%  
421 2% 88%  
422 3% 86%  
423 4% 83%  
424 4% 79%  
425 4% 75%  
426 5% 71%  
427 5% 66%  
428 4% 61%  
429 5% 57%  
430 5% 52% Median
431 4% 46%  
432 6% 42%  
433 5% 35%  
434 4% 31%  
435 3% 27%  
436 3% 23%  
437 5% 20%  
438 2% 15%  
439 2% 13%  
440 3% 11%  
441 2% 8%  
442 1.4% 6%  
443 0.9% 5%  
444 0.8% 4%  
445 0.9% 3%  
446 0.6% 2%  
447 0.4% 1.3%  
448 0.2% 0.9%  
449 0.3% 0.7%  
450 0.1% 0.5%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.2% 99.6%  
409 0.2% 99.4%  
410 0.3% 99.2%  
411 0.5% 98.9%  
412 0.5% 98%  
413 0.6% 98%  
414 1.0% 97%  
415 1.3% 96%  
416 1.4% 95%  
417 2% 94%  
418 2% 92%  
419 3% 90%  
420 3% 87%  
421 4% 84%  
422 4% 80%  
423 4% 76%  
424 3% 72%  
425 6% 69%  
426 5% 63%  
427 5% 59%  
428 7% 54%  
429 4% 47% Median
430 5% 43%  
431 4% 37%  
432 4% 33%  
433 4% 29%  
434 3% 24%  
435 4% 22%  
436 3% 17%  
437 3% 14%  
438 2% 11%  
439 2% 9%  
440 2% 7%  
441 1.1% 5%  
442 1.0% 4%  
443 0.8% 3%  
444 0.7% 2%  
445 0.5% 2%  
446 0.3% 1.2%  
447 0.3% 1.0%  
448 0.2% 0.7%  
449 0.2% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.6%  
369 0.3% 99.4%  
370 0.3% 99.0%  
371 0.5% 98.7%  
372 0.6% 98%  
373 1.1% 98%  
374 1.4% 96%  
375 2% 95%  
376 2% 93%  
377 2% 92%  
378 2% 89%  
379 3% 87%  
380 3% 84%  
381 5% 81%  
382 5% 76%  
383 6% 71%  
384 4% 65%  
385 5% 61%  
386 5% 56% Median
387 4% 50%  
388 5% 46%  
389 6% 41%  
390 5% 35%  
391 5% 29%  
392 3% 25%  
393 3% 22%  
394 3% 18%  
395 2% 15%  
396 2% 13%  
397 2% 11%  
398 2% 9%  
399 1.3% 7%  
400 1.1% 6%  
401 0.8% 5%  
402 0.7% 4%  
403 0.7% 3%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.4%  
407 0.3% 1.0%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.5%  
332 0.3% 99.3%  
333 0.3% 99.0%  
334 0.4% 98.7%  
335 0.5% 98%  
336 0.8% 98%  
337 0.9% 97%  
338 0.9% 96%  
339 1.3% 95%  
340 2% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 3% 90%  
343 2% 88%  
344 3% 85%  
345 3% 83%  
346 3% 80%  
347 6% 77%  
348 5% 71%  
349 5% 66%  
350 4% 61%  
351 6% 57%  
352 4% 51% Median
353 6% 47%  
354 4% 41%  
355 3% 37% Majority
356 8% 33%  
357 2% 25%  
358 4% 23%  
359 3% 19%  
360 3% 16%  
361 2% 13%  
362 2% 10%  
363 1.4% 8%  
364 2% 7%  
365 1.0% 5%  
366 1.1% 4%  
367 0.7% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.5% 1.5%  
370 0.3% 1.0%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0.1% 100%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.1% 99.2%  
332 0.2% 99.1%  
333 0.2% 98.9%  
334 0.5% 98.7%  
335 1.3% 98%  
336 1.4% 97%  
337 2% 95%  
338 3% 94%  
339 2% 91%  
340 2% 89%  
341 1.0% 87%  
342 1.0% 86%  
343 2% 85%  
344 4% 83%  
345 5% 79%  
346 5% 74%  
347 9% 69%  
348 6% 60%  
349 6% 54%  
350 4% 48%  
351 2% 44% Median
352 2% 42%  
353 2% 40%  
354 4% 38%  
355 6% 34% Majority
356 7% 28%  
357 4% 21%  
358 4% 18%  
359 4% 14%  
360 2% 9%  
361 0.9% 8%  
362 0.6% 7%  
363 0.9% 6%  
364 0.9% 5%  
365 1.3% 5%  
366 0.9% 3%  
367 0.8% 2%  
368 0.6% 2%  
369 0.3% 0.9%  
370 0.2% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.3%  
314 0.3% 99.1%  
315 0.4% 98.7%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.7% 97%  
319 0.9% 97%  
320 1.0% 96%  
321 1.5% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 2% 89%  
325 3% 88%  
326 3% 85%  
327 2% 82%  
328 3% 79%  
329 5% 76%  
330 3% 71%  
331 5% 68%  
332 6% 63%  
333 7% 57%  
334 7% 51%  
335 4% 43% Median
336 5% 40%  
337 4% 35%  
338 4% 31%  
339 4% 26%  
340 4% 22%  
341 4% 18%  
342 3% 15%  
343 2% 12%  
344 2% 9%  
345 1.1% 7%  
346 2% 6%  
347 1.1% 4%  
348 0.9% 3%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.5% 1.5%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0.3% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.6% 98.6%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0.7% 97%  
308 0.8% 96%  
309 1.1% 95%  
310 1.3% 94%  
311 2% 93%  
312 2% 91%  
313 2% 89%  
314 2% 87%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 82%  
317 3% 78%  
318 5% 75%  
319 5% 71%  
320 6% 65%  
321 5% 59%  
322 4% 54%  
323 5% 50%  
324 5% 44% Median
325 4% 39%  
326 6% 35%  
327 5% 29%  
328 5% 24%  
329 3% 19%  
330 3% 16%  
331 2% 13%  
332 2% 11%  
333 2% 8%  
334 2% 7%  
335 1.4% 5%  
336 1.1% 4%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.6%  
290 0.3% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.2%  
292 0.5% 98.9%  
293 0.7% 98%  
294 0.8% 98%  
295 1.2% 97%  
296 0.9% 96%  
297 2% 95%  
298 3% 93%  
299 2% 90%  
300 3% 89%  
301 3% 86%  
302 4% 82%  
303 3% 79%  
304 4% 75%  
305 4% 71%  
306 5% 67%  
307 4% 62%  
308 6% 58% Median
309 3% 51%  
310 7% 48%  
311 6% 41%  
312 5% 36%  
313 4% 30%  
314 4% 26%  
315 3% 22%  
316 3% 19%  
317 3% 17%  
318 3% 14%  
319 2% 11%  
320 2% 9%  
321 2% 7%  
322 1.3% 6%  
323 1.2% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.5% 2%  
327 0.4% 1.5%  
328 0.3% 1.1%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.3% 99.4%  
284 0.5% 99.1%  
285 0.5% 98.6%  
286 1.0% 98%  
287 0.9% 97%  
288 1.4% 96%  
289 2% 95%  
290 1.2% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 2% 90%  
293 4% 88%  
294 3% 84%  
295 3% 81%  
296 5% 78%  
297 5% 74%  
298 6% 69%  
299 4% 62%  
300 7% 58%  
301 4% 51% Median
302 4% 47%  
303 5% 43%  
304 4% 38%  
305 5% 33%  
306 3% 28%  
307 5% 25%  
308 3% 20%  
309 3% 18%  
310 3% 14%  
311 2% 12%  
312 2% 9%  
313 1.4% 7%  
314 1.5% 6%  
315 1.2% 5%  
316 0.6% 3%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.2%  
321 0.3% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.7%  
233 0.2% 99.6%  
234 0.3% 99.4%  
235 0.2% 99.0%  
236 0.5% 98.8%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 0.7% 97%  
240 0.7% 97%  
241 1.1% 96%  
242 0.9% 95%  
243 0.9% 94%  
244 1.3% 93%  
245 1.3% 92%  
246 1.5% 90%  
247 2% 89%  
248 2% 87%  
249 3% 85%  
250 2% 82%  
251 4% 79%  
252 4% 75%  
253 5% 71%  
254 6% 66%  
255 7% 61%  
256 7% 54%  
257 7% 47% Median
258 4% 39%  
259 6% 35%  
260 6% 29%  
261 4% 23%  
262 4% 20%  
263 4% 15%  
264 3% 12%  
265 2% 8%  
266 1.4% 6%  
267 2% 5%  
268 0.9% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.5% 1.4%  
271 0.3% 0.9%  
272 0.3% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.2% 99.6%  
188 0.2% 99.4%  
189 0.4% 99.2%  
190 0.5% 98.8%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.8% 98%  
193 0.9% 97%  
194 1.2% 96%  
195 1.2% 95%  
196 2% 94%  
197 2% 92%  
198 2% 90%  
199 2% 87%  
200 3% 85%  
201 4% 82%  
202 5% 77%  
203 5% 72%  
204 6% 68%  
205 6% 62%  
206 6% 56%  
207 5% 50% Median
208 5% 45%  
209 7% 41%  
210 4% 34%  
211 5% 29%  
212 5% 24%  
213 5% 20%  
214 3% 15%  
215 2% 12%  
216 2% 10%  
217 2% 8%  
218 1.5% 5%  
219 1.1% 4%  
220 1.0% 3%  
221 0.6% 2%  
222 0.4% 1.4%  
223 0.3% 1.0%  
224 0.3% 0.7%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.7%  
176 0.2% 99.6%  
177 0.3% 99.4%  
178 0.2% 99.1%  
179 0.4% 98.9%  
180 0.7% 98%  
181 0.8% 98%  
182 1.0% 97%  
183 2% 96%  
184 1.3% 94%  
185 1.1% 93%  
186 2% 92%  
187 2% 90%  
188 2% 87%  
189 3% 85%  
190 6% 81%  
191 4% 76%  
192 5% 72%  
193 6% 67%  
194 6% 61%  
195 5% 56%  
196 6% 50% Median
197 6% 44%  
198 7% 38%  
199 5% 31%  
200 5% 26%  
201 4% 22%  
202 5% 18%  
203 2% 13%  
204 3% 11%  
205 2% 8%  
206 2% 6%  
207 1.0% 5%  
208 1.3% 4%  
209 0.7% 2%  
210 0.4% 2%  
211 0.3% 1.2%  
212 0.3% 0.8%  
213 0.2% 0.5%  
214 0.1% 0.3%  
215 0.1% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations