Opinion Poll by Kantar, 4–10 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 25.2% 24.1–26.4% 23.7–26.7% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.1–18.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.6–9.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.6–9.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.8% 5.2–6.5% 5.1–6.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 192 183–200 181–203 179–205 175–209
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 137–153 135–155 133–157 130–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 115–129 113–131 111–133 108–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 78–90 76–92 75–94 72–97
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 56–66 54–68 53–70 51–72
Die Linke 69 61 56–66 54–68 53–70 51–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 40–49 39–51 38–52 35–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.2% 99.7%  
175 0.3% 99.6%  
176 0.3% 99.3%  
177 0.3% 99.0%  
178 0.9% 98.6%  
179 1.1% 98%  
180 0.6% 97%  
181 2% 96%  
182 3% 94%  
183 1.4% 91%  
184 3% 89%  
185 4% 87%  
186 4% 83%  
187 3% 79%  
188 9% 76%  
189 5% 67%  
190 4% 62%  
191 6% 58%  
192 8% 52% Median
193 4% 44%  
194 6% 41%  
195 6% 35%  
196 5% 29%  
197 4% 24%  
198 5% 20%  
199 3% 15%  
200 2% 12% Last Result
201 2% 10%  
202 2% 8%  
203 1.1% 6%  
204 0.9% 5%  
205 2% 4%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.3% 1.5%  
208 0.4% 1.1%  
209 0.2% 0.7%  
210 0.1% 0.4%  
211 0.1% 0.4%  
212 0.1% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.3% 99.5%  
131 0.4% 99.2%  
132 0.8% 98.7%  
133 0.9% 98%  
134 1.4% 97%  
135 2% 96%  
136 2% 94%  
137 3% 92%  
138 3% 89%  
139 4% 85%  
140 5% 81%  
141 5% 76%  
142 6% 71%  
143 6% 64%  
144 5% 59%  
145 7% 53% Median
146 6% 46%  
147 5% 40%  
148 7% 35%  
149 6% 28%  
150 4% 22%  
151 4% 18%  
152 3% 14%  
153 3% 11%  
154 2% 8%  
155 2% 6%  
156 1.0% 4%  
157 1.0% 3%  
158 0.5% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.4% 1.0%  
161 0.3% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.4% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 99.2%  
110 0.7% 98.7%  
111 1.2% 98%  
112 1.5% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 93%  
115 3% 90%  
116 5% 87%  
117 5% 83%  
118 6% 78%  
119 6% 71%  
120 7% 66%  
121 7% 59%  
122 7% 52% Median
123 7% 45%  
124 6% 38%  
125 6% 32%  
126 6% 26%  
127 4% 20%  
128 4% 16%  
129 3% 12%  
130 2% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.3% 5%  
133 1.0% 3%  
134 0.8% 2%  
135 0.6% 1.5%  
136 0.3% 0.9%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 1.0% 98.8%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 4% 92%  
79 6% 87%  
80 7% 82%  
81 7% 75%  
82 8% 69%  
83 8% 61%  
84 8% 53% Median
85 9% 45%  
86 8% 36%  
87 6% 29%  
88 5% 23%  
89 4% 18%  
90 4% 13%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.0% 3% Last Result
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 1.2%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 0.9% 99.1%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 6% 86%  
58 8% 80%  
59 10% 73%  
60 8% 62%  
61 9% 54% Median
62 9% 45%  
63 9% 36%  
64 7% 27%  
65 5% 20%  
66 5% 15%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 0.6% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 7% 85%  
58 5% 79%  
59 11% 74%  
60 10% 62%  
61 7% 52% Median
62 11% 45%  
63 8% 34%  
64 5% 26%  
65 7% 20%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.5%  
37 1.2% 98.9%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 6% 91%  
41 7% 85%  
42 8% 78%  
43 10% 71%  
44 11% 60% Median
45 12% 50%  
46 9% 38% Last Result
47 9% 29%  
48 6% 20%  
49 5% 14%  
50 3% 9%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 503 100% 494–512 491–514 489–516 485–520
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 442 100% 432–451 430–454 427–456 423–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 419 100% 409–429 407–432 404–434 400–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 382 100% 371–391 370–394 366–396 362–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 381 100% 372–391 368–394 366–396 361–400
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 358 71% 348–368 345–371 343–372 339–378
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 327 0% 318–338 315–339 313–343 308–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 328 0% 318–337 315–340 313–342 308–347
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 320 0% 311–330 308–333 306–335 301–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 297 0% 288–307 285–310 282–312 278–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 257–276 255–279 252–281 248–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 174–191 172–194 170–196 166–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 183 0% 175–191 172–194 170–196 166–200

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 99.9%  
482 0.1% 99.9%  
483 0.1% 99.8%  
484 0.1% 99.7%  
485 0.2% 99.6%  
486 0.3% 99.4%  
487 0.5% 99.1%  
488 0.4% 98.5%  
489 0.8% 98%  
490 1.3% 97%  
491 1.1% 96%  
492 2% 95%  
493 2% 93%  
494 2% 91%  
495 3% 89%  
496 3% 86%  
497 4% 83%  
498 4% 79%  
499 4% 75%  
500 5% 71%  
501 5% 66%  
502 6% 61%  
503 7% 55% Median
504 6% 48%  
505 4% 42%  
506 8% 38%  
507 4% 30%  
508 5% 26%  
509 4% 21%  
510 4% 17%  
511 2% 13%  
512 2% 11%  
513 2% 8%  
514 1.3% 6%  
515 2% 5%  
516 0.8% 3%  
517 0.6% 2%  
518 0.4% 1.5%  
519 0.4% 1.1%  
520 0.3% 0.7%  
521 0.1% 0.4%  
522 0.1% 0.3%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.2% 99.6%  
424 0.2% 99.4%  
425 0.4% 99.1%  
426 0.5% 98.7%  
427 0.7% 98%  
428 0.9% 97%  
429 1.2% 97%  
430 1.4% 95%  
431 2% 94%  
432 2% 92%  
433 2% 90%  
434 2% 88%  
435 4% 86%  
436 3% 82%  
437 4% 79%  
438 5% 75%  
439 3% 70%  
440 6% 67%  
441 5% 60%  
442 6% 56% Median
443 5% 49%  
444 5% 44%  
445 5% 39%  
446 5% 34%  
447 5% 28%  
448 4% 23%  
449 4% 19%  
450 4% 16%  
451 2% 12%  
452 2% 10%  
453 2% 7%  
454 1.5% 6%  
455 1.3% 4%  
456 0.8% 3%  
457 0.7% 2%  
458 0.4% 1.5%  
459 0.3% 1.1%  
460 0.2% 0.8%  
461 0.2% 0.6%  
462 0.2% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0.1% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.7%  
400 0.3% 99.6%  
401 0.4% 99.3%  
402 0.5% 99.0%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.8% 98%  
405 0.7% 97%  
406 0.9% 97%  
407 2% 96%  
408 1.5% 94%  
409 3% 92%  
410 2% 90%  
411 2% 88%  
412 4% 86%  
413 3% 82%  
414 4% 79%  
415 5% 75%  
416 7% 70%  
417 7% 63%  
418 4% 57%  
419 4% 53% Median
420 6% 48%  
421 5% 43%  
422 5% 38%  
423 5% 33%  
424 4% 28%  
425 4% 24%  
426 3% 19%  
427 3% 17%  
428 3% 14%  
429 2% 11%  
430 2% 9%  
431 1.3% 6%  
432 1.5% 5%  
433 0.9% 4%  
434 0.8% 3%  
435 0.6% 2%  
436 0.3% 1.2%  
437 0.3% 0.9%  
438 0.2% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0.1% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.2% 99.5%  
364 0.5% 99.3%  
365 0.9% 98.8%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.8% 97%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 0.9% 96%  
370 2% 95%  
371 3% 93%  
372 4% 90%  
373 2% 86%  
374 2% 84%  
375 1.5% 82%  
376 4% 80%  
377 10% 76%  
378 5% 66%  
379 5% 62%  
380 2% 57%  
381 3% 54% Median
382 5% 52%  
383 8% 47%  
384 8% 38%  
385 4% 30%  
386 2% 26%  
387 2% 24%  
388 3% 22%  
389 4% 19%  
390 5% 16%  
391 3% 11%  
392 1.2% 8%  
393 1.0% 7%  
394 1.0% 6%  
395 1.3% 5%  
396 2% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0.1% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0.2% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.2% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.3%  
364 0.5% 99.0%  
365 0.6% 98.5%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 1.0% 97%  
368 1.2% 96%  
369 1.0% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 2% 92%  
372 2% 90%  
373 3% 88%  
374 4% 86%  
375 4% 82%  
376 3% 78%  
377 5% 74%  
378 4% 69%  
379 5% 66%  
380 6% 60%  
381 6% 55% Median
382 6% 48%  
383 5% 43%  
384 4% 37%  
385 4% 33%  
386 4% 29%  
387 4% 24%  
388 5% 21%  
389 3% 16%  
390 3% 13%  
391 2% 10%  
392 2% 9%  
393 1.3% 6%  
394 1.2% 5%  
395 1.1% 4%  
396 0.9% 3%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.4%  
399 0.4% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.6%  
340 0.3% 99.4%  
341 0.3% 99.1%  
342 0.7% 98.8%  
343 0.7% 98%  
344 1.0% 97%  
345 2% 96%  
346 2% 95%  
347 2% 93%  
348 2% 91%  
349 3% 89%  
350 2% 87%  
351 3% 84%  
352 3% 82%  
353 3% 79%  
354 4% 76%  
355 7% 71% Majority
356 4% 65%  
357 8% 60%  
358 6% 53% Median
359 5% 47%  
360 6% 41%  
361 5% 36%  
362 4% 31%  
363 4% 27%  
364 3% 23%  
365 3% 20%  
366 3% 17%  
367 3% 15%  
368 3% 12%  
369 2% 9%  
370 2% 7%  
371 2% 5%  
372 1.2% 4%  
373 0.6% 2%  
374 0.7% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.3% 1.0%  
377 0.2% 0.7%  
378 0.2% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.2% 99.7%  
308 0.2% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.4%  
310 0.1% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 99.0%  
312 0.6% 98.7%  
313 2% 98%  
314 1.3% 97%  
315 1.0% 95%  
316 1.0% 94%  
317 1.2% 93%  
318 3% 92%  
319 5% 89%  
320 4% 84%  
321 3% 81%  
322 2% 78%  
323 2% 76%  
324 4% 74%  
325 8% 70%  
326 8% 62%  
327 5% 53%  
328 3% 48% Median
329 2% 46%  
330 5% 43%  
331 5% 38%  
332 10% 34%  
333 4% 24%  
334 1.5% 20%  
335 2% 18%  
336 2% 16%  
337 4% 14%  
338 3% 10%  
339 2% 7%  
340 0.9% 5%  
341 0.5% 4%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.9% 2%  
345 0.5% 1.2%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.2% 99.5%  
310 0.3% 99.3%  
311 0.5% 99.0%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.8% 98%  
314 1.0% 97%  
315 1.3% 96%  
316 2% 95%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 2% 89%  
320 3% 87%  
321 4% 84%  
322 4% 80%  
323 5% 75%  
324 4% 70%  
325 5% 66%  
326 5% 61%  
327 5% 56%  
328 5% 51% Median
329 4% 46%  
330 6% 42%  
331 3% 36%  
332 7% 33%  
333 5% 26%  
334 3% 21%  
335 3% 19%  
336 3% 16%  
337 3% 13%  
338 2% 10%  
339 2% 8%  
340 1.2% 6%  
341 1.1% 5%  
342 1.2% 4%  
343 0.8% 2%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.2%  
346 0.3% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.3% 99.4%  
303 0.5% 99.1%  
304 0.4% 98.6%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.8% 98%  
307 1.2% 97%  
308 2% 96%  
309 2% 94%  
310 2% 92%  
311 2% 90%  
312 4% 88%  
313 3% 84%  
314 3% 81%  
315 5% 78%  
316 3% 73%  
317 5% 69%  
318 6% 64%  
319 4% 58%  
320 5% 54% Median
321 6% 49%  
322 5% 43%  
323 6% 39%  
324 4% 33%  
325 5% 29%  
326 3% 24%  
327 5% 21%  
328 3% 16%  
329 3% 14%  
330 2% 11%  
331 2% 9%  
332 2% 7%  
333 1.3% 5%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.8% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.5%  
338 0.4% 1.1%  
339 0.3% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.3% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.2%  
281 0.6% 98.9%  
282 0.8% 98%  
283 0.8% 97%  
284 0.9% 97%  
285 1.4% 96%  
286 2% 94%  
287 2% 92%  
288 2% 90%  
289 3% 88%  
290 2% 85%  
291 4% 83%  
292 5% 79%  
293 4% 75%  
294 6% 70%  
295 5% 64%  
296 4% 59%  
297 7% 55% Median
298 6% 48%  
299 4% 42%  
300 6% 38%  
301 4% 32%  
302 3% 28%  
303 4% 25%  
304 4% 21%  
305 3% 18%  
306 3% 15%  
307 3% 11%  
308 2% 9%  
309 2% 7%  
310 1.1% 5%  
311 1.0% 4%  
312 1.0% 3%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.5%  
315 0.4% 1.1%  
316 0.2% 0.8%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.6%  
249 0.3% 99.4%  
250 0.5% 99.1%  
251 0.5% 98.6%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 1.3% 97%  
254 1.0% 96%  
255 2% 95%  
256 2% 94%  
257 2% 92%  
258 3% 89%  
259 4% 87%  
260 3% 83%  
261 4% 80%  
262 4% 76%  
263 5% 72%  
264 4% 67%  
265 6% 63%  
266 5% 57%  
267 6% 52% Median
268 6% 46%  
269 5% 41%  
270 5% 36%  
271 5% 31%  
272 3% 25%  
273 5% 22%  
274 3% 18%  
275 3% 15%  
276 3% 12%  
277 2% 9%  
278 2% 7%  
279 1.0% 5%  
280 1.3% 4%  
281 0.8% 3%  
282 0.7% 2%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.4% 1.1%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.6%  
167 0.3% 99.4%  
168 0.6% 99.1%  
169 0.7% 98.6%  
170 0.9% 98%  
171 1.2% 97%  
172 1.4% 96%  
173 2% 94%  
174 3% 93%  
175 3% 90%  
176 4% 87%  
177 4% 83%  
178 6% 80%  
179 4% 74%  
180 6% 70%  
181 6% 64%  
182 6% 58%  
183 6% 52% Median
184 8% 46%  
185 4% 37%  
186 6% 34%  
187 5% 28%  
188 4% 23%  
189 3% 19%  
190 4% 16%  
191 2% 12%  
192 2% 10%  
193 2% 8%  
194 1.1% 5%  
195 1.1% 4%  
196 1.2% 3%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.3%  
199 0.3% 0.9%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.6%  
167 0.4% 99.5%  
168 0.4% 99.1%  
169 0.7% 98.7%  
170 0.9% 98%  
171 1.4% 97%  
172 1.2% 96%  
173 2% 95%  
174 3% 93%  
175 2% 90%  
176 4% 88%  
177 4% 84%  
178 5% 80%  
179 5% 74%  
180 6% 69%  
181 7% 63%  
182 5% 56%  
183 5% 51% Median
184 7% 46%  
185 5% 39%  
186 6% 34%  
187 5% 28%  
188 5% 24%  
189 3% 19%  
190 4% 16%  
191 2% 12%  
192 2% 10%  
193 2% 8%  
194 1.1% 6%  
195 1.4% 5%  
196 1.0% 3%  
197 0.8% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.3%  
199 0.3% 1.0%  
200 0.2% 0.7%  
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations