Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–15 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.6% 22.4–24.8% 22.0–25.2% 21.7–25.5% 21.2–26.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.3–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 181 172–190 169–193 167–196 163–200
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 162 153–171 151–173 149–175 144–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 115–131 112–133 111–136 108–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 71–83 69–85 67–87 65–91
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 62 56–68 54–70 53–71 50–74
Die Linke 69 62 56–68 54–70 53–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–47 36–49 35–50 33–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.7%  
163 0.1% 99.6%  
164 0.5% 99.4%  
165 0.5% 99.0%  
166 0.5% 98.5%  
167 0.6% 98%  
168 1.0% 97%  
169 2% 96%  
170 1.3% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 3% 92%  
173 3% 89%  
174 3% 86%  
175 2% 83%  
176 6% 81%  
177 6% 75%  
178 6% 69%  
179 4% 64%  
180 8% 59%  
181 7% 52% Median
182 4% 44%  
183 4% 41%  
184 4% 37%  
185 6% 32%  
186 4% 26%  
187 3% 22%  
188 3% 19%  
189 4% 16%  
190 3% 12%  
191 2% 10%  
192 2% 8%  
193 1.5% 6%  
194 1.2% 5%  
195 0.6% 4%  
196 0.6% 3%  
197 1.1% 2%  
198 0.4% 1.3%  
199 0.3% 0.9%  
200 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
201 0.2% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.6%  
145 0.3% 99.5%  
146 0.3% 99.2%  
147 0.6% 98.9%  
148 0.7% 98%  
149 0.9% 98%  
150 1.2% 97%  
151 1.4% 95%  
152 3% 94%  
153 2% 91%  
154 3% 89%  
155 3% 86%  
156 3% 83%  
157 5% 80%  
158 5% 75%  
159 5% 70%  
160 6% 64%  
161 6% 59%  
162 5% 53% Median
163 6% 48%  
164 6% 42%  
165 5% 35%  
166 5% 30%  
167 3% 25%  
168 4% 22%  
169 3% 17%  
170 3% 14%  
171 2% 10%  
172 2% 8%  
173 1.5% 6%  
174 1.2% 5%  
175 1.3% 4%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.2%  
179 0.2% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.1% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.6% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 98.9%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 1.4% 98%  
112 2% 97%  
113 0.7% 94%  
114 1.4% 94%  
115 5% 92%  
116 3% 88%  
117 2% 85%  
118 6% 83%  
119 6% 76%  
120 2% 70%  
121 5% 68%  
122 11% 63%  
123 6% 52% Median
124 2% 46%  
125 9% 44%  
126 10% 35%  
127 2% 25%  
128 3% 23%  
129 6% 20%  
130 4% 14%  
131 1.0% 10%  
132 2% 9%  
133 3% 7%  
134 0.5% 4%  
135 1.1% 4%  
136 1.2% 3%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.1% 1.3%  
139 0.5% 1.2%  
140 0.4% 0.7%  
141 0% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 94%  
71 5% 91%  
72 4% 86%  
73 7% 82%  
74 6% 75%  
75 9% 68%  
76 6% 60%  
77 10% 53% Median
78 8% 43%  
79 6% 35%  
80 7% 29%  
81 5% 22%  
82 5% 17%  
83 2% 12%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.4%  
52 0.8% 98.9%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 5% 91%  
57 5% 87%  
58 6% 82%  
59 7% 76%  
60 7% 69%  
61 8% 61%  
62 9% 53% Median
63 10% 44%  
64 8% 35%  
65 6% 27%  
66 5% 21%  
67 4% 16%  
68 3% 11%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 1.2% 98.9%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 3% 94%  
56 4% 91%  
57 7% 87%  
58 5% 81%  
59 8% 75%  
60 7% 68%  
61 8% 61%  
62 9% 53% Median
63 9% 44%  
64 7% 35%  
65 6% 28%  
66 5% 22%  
67 5% 17%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 1.1% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 5% 93%  
38 6% 88%  
39 7% 83%  
40 10% 75%  
41 10% 65%  
42 10% 56% Median
43 8% 45%  
44 9% 37%  
45 7% 28%  
46 6% 21% Last Result
47 5% 14%  
48 3% 9%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.3% 3%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.3%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 509 100% 499–518 496–521 494–523 489–528
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 447 100% 437–457 434–460 431–462 426–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 408 100% 397–419 395–422 392–424 387–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 386 100% 375–395 372–399 369–401 364–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 83% 351–373 349–376 346–378 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 17% 336–358 333–360 331–363 326–368
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 347 17% 337–357 334–360 331–363 325–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 347 17% 336–357 333–360 330–363 325–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 300 0% 290–310 287–313 285–317 280–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 285 0% 275–296 272–299 269–302 264–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 285 0% 275–295 272–299 269–301 264–306
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 185 0% 176–194 173–197 171–200 167–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 176–194 173–197 171–199 166–204

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 99.9%  
485 0% 99.9%  
486 0.1% 99.9%  
487 0.1% 99.8%  
488 0.1% 99.7%  
489 0.2% 99.6%  
490 0.3% 99.4%  
491 0.3% 99.0%  
492 0.4% 98.7%  
493 0.6% 98%  
494 0.9% 98%  
495 1.1% 97%  
496 1.5% 96%  
497 2% 94%  
498 2% 93%  
499 2% 91%  
500 2% 89%  
501 4% 86%  
502 3% 82%  
503 4% 79%  
504 6% 75%  
505 4% 69%  
506 5% 65%  
507 5% 61%  
508 4% 55% Median
509 6% 51%  
510 6% 45%  
511 5% 39%  
512 4% 34%  
513 4% 30%  
514 3% 25%  
515 4% 22%  
516 4% 18%  
517 2% 14%  
518 3% 11%  
519 2% 9%  
520 2% 7%  
521 1.4% 5%  
522 1.1% 4%  
523 0.8% 3%  
524 0.6% 2%  
525 0.5% 2%  
526 0.3% 1.1%  
527 0.2% 0.7%  
528 0.2% 0.5%  
529 0.1% 0.3%  
530 0.1% 0.2%  
531 0.1% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0.3% 99.2%  
429 0.4% 98.9%  
430 0.3% 98.5%  
431 0.9% 98%  
432 0.5% 97%  
433 0.9% 97%  
434 1.0% 96%  
435 1.5% 95%  
436 1.4% 93%  
437 2% 92%  
438 1.3% 90%  
439 3% 88%  
440 4% 85%  
441 3% 81%  
442 5% 78%  
443 4% 73%  
444 5% 69%  
445 4% 64%  
446 7% 60%  
447 5% 53% Median
448 6% 48%  
449 5% 42%  
450 5% 37%  
451 4% 32%  
452 3% 28%  
453 4% 24%  
454 3% 20%  
455 3% 17%  
456 3% 15%  
457 2% 12%  
458 2% 10%  
459 2% 8%  
460 1.5% 6%  
461 0.7% 5%  
462 1.3% 4%  
463 0.5% 2%  
464 0.6% 2%  
465 0.6% 1.4%  
466 0.2% 0.8%  
467 0.2% 0.6%  
468 0.2% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0.1% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.3%  
389 0.3% 99.2%  
390 0.2% 98.9%  
391 0.5% 98.7%  
392 0.9% 98%  
393 0.5% 97%  
394 1.3% 97%  
395 0.7% 95%  
396 4% 95%  
397 2% 91%  
398 1.0% 89%  
399 4% 88%  
400 1.2% 85%  
401 5% 83%  
402 3% 78%  
403 3% 75%  
404 5% 72%  
405 2% 68%  
406 7% 66%  
407 6% 59%  
408 4% 53% Median
409 8% 49%  
410 2% 41%  
411 5% 39%  
412 3% 33%  
413 2% 30%  
414 5% 28%  
415 2% 23%  
416 4% 20%  
417 2% 16%  
418 2% 14%  
419 5% 12%  
420 0.8% 8%  
421 2% 7%  
422 1.3% 5%  
423 0.7% 4%  
424 1.1% 3%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.7% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.4%  
428 0.2% 1.1%  
429 0.5% 0.9%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.2% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0.1% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.2% 99.2%  
367 0.3% 99.0%  
368 0.6% 98.6%  
369 0.9% 98%  
370 0.9% 97%  
371 0.9% 96%  
372 0.9% 95%  
373 1.0% 94%  
374 2% 93%  
375 4% 92%  
376 2% 88%  
377 3% 85%  
378 1.3% 82%  
379 2% 81%  
380 5% 79%  
381 6% 74%  
382 6% 68%  
383 5% 62%  
384 4% 57%  
385 2% 54% Median
386 6% 51%  
387 5% 46%  
388 8% 41%  
389 3% 33%  
390 4% 30%  
391 2% 26%  
392 3% 24%  
393 5% 21%  
394 3% 16%  
395 3% 13%  
396 1.3% 10%  
397 1.3% 9%  
398 1.0% 7%  
399 2% 6%  
400 1.4% 4%  
401 0.9% 3%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.4%  
405 0.3% 1.0%  
406 0.3% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.2% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.4%  
343 0.3% 99.2%  
344 0.4% 98.8%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 1.0% 97%  
348 1.3% 96%  
349 1.0% 95%  
350 2% 94%  
351 2% 92%  
352 2% 90%  
353 3% 88%  
354 3% 85%  
355 3% 83% Majority
356 4% 79%  
357 4% 75%  
358 6% 71%  
359 3% 66%  
360 5% 63%  
361 6% 58%  
362 4% 52% Median
363 5% 48%  
364 5% 43%  
365 5% 38%  
366 3% 33%  
367 4% 30%  
368 4% 26%  
369 4% 22%  
370 2% 18%  
371 2% 15%  
372 2% 13%  
373 2% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 2% 7%  
376 1.1% 5%  
377 1.0% 4%  
378 0.6% 3%  
379 0.8% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.3%  
382 0.3% 1.0%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.4% 98.7%  
330 0.8% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 1.0% 97%  
333 1.1% 96%  
334 2% 95%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 2% 87%  
339 2% 85%  
340 4% 82%  
341 4% 78%  
342 4% 74%  
343 3% 70%  
344 5% 67%  
345 5% 62%  
346 5% 57%  
347 4% 52% Median
348 6% 48%  
349 5% 42%  
350 3% 37%  
351 6% 34%  
352 4% 29%  
353 4% 25%  
354 3% 21%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 15%  
357 2% 12%  
358 2% 10%  
359 2% 8%  
360 1.0% 6%  
361 1.3% 5%  
362 1.0% 4%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.4% 99.1%  
329 0.4% 98.7%  
330 0.6% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.7% 97%  
333 1.2% 96%  
334 2% 95%  
335 1.4% 94%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 3% 88%  
339 4% 85%  
340 3% 82%  
341 3% 78%  
342 4% 76%  
343 5% 72%  
344 5% 67%  
345 4% 61%  
346 4% 57%  
347 6% 53% Median
348 4% 47%  
349 6% 44%  
350 5% 38%  
351 4% 33%  
352 4% 28%  
353 4% 25%  
354 4% 21%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.5% 6%  
361 1.0% 4%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.2% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.4%  
327 0.2% 99.2%  
328 0.4% 99.0%  
329 0.3% 98.6%  
330 0.8% 98%  
331 1.1% 97%  
332 1.1% 96%  
333 2% 95%  
334 1.4% 93%  
335 1.5% 92%  
336 2% 91%  
337 3% 88%  
338 3% 86%  
339 4% 83%  
340 4% 79%  
341 4% 76%  
342 3% 72%  
343 5% 68%  
344 4% 63%  
345 4% 59%  
346 5% 55% Median
347 5% 50%  
348 5% 45%  
349 4% 40%  
350 5% 36%  
351 5% 32%  
352 3% 26%  
353 3% 23%  
354 3% 20%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 15%  
357 2% 12%  
358 2% 9%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.1% 6%  
361 1.0% 5%  
362 1.0% 4%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.5% 99.4%  
282 0.2% 98.9%  
283 0.5% 98.7%  
284 0.7% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 1.3% 97%  
287 1.1% 96%  
288 1.1% 95%  
289 3% 94%  
290 2% 91%  
291 3% 88%  
292 3% 85%  
293 2% 82%  
294 5% 80%  
295 2% 76%  
296 4% 74%  
297 6% 70%  
298 4% 64%  
299 7% 61%  
300 5% 53% Median
301 6% 48%  
302 6% 42%  
303 2% 36%  
304 5% 34%  
305 3% 28%  
306 2% 25%  
307 5% 23%  
308 3% 18%  
309 3% 15%  
310 3% 12%  
311 1.5% 9%  
312 2% 8%  
313 0.8% 6%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 1.2% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.8% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.3%  
320 0.4% 1.1%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.2% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.2% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.5% 99.0%  
268 0.4% 98%  
269 0.8% 98%  
270 0.7% 97%  
271 1.0% 97%  
272 1.0% 96%  
273 1.4% 95%  
274 2% 93%  
275 2% 91%  
276 2% 89%  
277 2% 87%  
278 5% 85%  
279 3% 80%  
280 5% 76%  
281 4% 71%  
282 5% 67%  
283 5% 62%  
284 5% 58%  
285 6% 53% Median
286 5% 47%  
287 4% 42%  
288 5% 38%  
289 6% 34%  
290 4% 28%  
291 3% 24%  
292 3% 21%  
293 3% 19%  
294 3% 16%  
295 2% 13%  
296 3% 11%  
297 1.3% 8%  
298 1.2% 7%  
299 1.3% 6%  
300 1.5% 5%  
301 0.5% 3%  
302 0.9% 3%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.3% 1.3%  
305 0.3% 1.0%  
306 0.2% 0.7%  
307 0.2% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.2% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.4%  
266 0.3% 99.2%  
267 0.5% 98.9%  
268 0.4% 98%  
269 0.7% 98%  
270 1.2% 97%  
271 0.5% 96%  
272 2% 96%  
273 2% 94%  
274 1.0% 92%  
275 3% 91%  
276 2% 88%  
277 3% 86%  
278 4% 83%  
279 2% 79%  
280 6% 76%  
281 3% 71%  
282 3% 67%  
283 8% 65%  
284 3% 57%  
285 4% 54% Median
286 7% 49%  
287 3% 43%  
288 6% 39%  
289 5% 33%  
290 2% 29%  
291 7% 27%  
292 2% 20%  
293 2% 17%  
294 5% 16%  
295 1.3% 11%  
296 2% 10%  
297 2% 8%  
298 0.6% 6%  
299 2% 5%  
300 0.8% 3%  
301 0.5% 3%  
302 0.8% 2%  
303 0.2% 1.4%  
304 0.4% 1.2%  
305 0.3% 0.8%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.2% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.5%  
168 0.4% 99.3%  
169 0.5% 98.9%  
170 0.6% 98%  
171 0.8% 98%  
172 1.1% 97%  
173 1.4% 96%  
174 2% 94%  
175 3% 93%  
176 2% 90%  
177 3% 88%  
178 4% 85%  
179 3% 81%  
180 4% 77%  
181 5% 73%  
182 7% 68%  
183 4% 61%  
184 4% 57%  
185 7% 53% Median
186 5% 47%  
187 6% 41%  
188 6% 35%  
189 4% 30%  
190 4% 25%  
191 3% 21%  
192 3% 18%  
193 3% 16%  
194 3% 12%  
195 2% 9%  
196 2% 7%  
197 1.2% 6%  
198 0.9% 4%  
199 0.8% 3%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.5% 1.4%  
203 0.2% 0.9%  
204 0.2% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.7%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.4%  
168 0.3% 99.2%  
169 0.6% 98.9%  
170 0.5% 98%  
171 0.9% 98%  
172 1.3% 97%  
173 1.2% 96%  
174 2% 94%  
175 2% 92%  
176 3% 90%  
177 3% 87%  
178 3% 85%  
179 3% 82%  
180 5% 79%  
181 4% 73%  
182 6% 69%  
183 5% 63%  
184 7% 58%  
185 5% 51% Median
186 5% 46%  
187 4% 40%  
188 5% 36%  
189 4% 31%  
190 5% 27%  
191 4% 22%  
192 4% 18%  
193 2% 14%  
194 3% 12%  
195 2% 9%  
196 2% 7%  
197 0.9% 5%  
198 1.1% 4%  
199 0.8% 3%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.3%  
203 0.4% 1.1%  
204 0.3% 0.7%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations