Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–15 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 24.0% 22.8–25.2% 22.5–25.6% 22.2–25.9% 21.6–26.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 182 173–190 170–193 168–195 164–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 121–138 119–140 117–142 113–146
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 120–137 119–140 117–142 114–146
Alternative für Deutschland 94 87 80–94 78–96 77–98 74–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 81 73–87 71–89 70–90 67–93
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 54–68 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–47 36–48 35–50 33–52

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 0.2% 99.6%  
165 0.2% 99.3%  
166 0.5% 99.1%  
167 0.5% 98.6%  
168 1.1% 98%  
169 1.0% 97%  
170 1.3% 96%  
171 2% 95%  
172 2% 93%  
173 3% 91%  
174 3% 88%  
175 4% 84%  
176 3% 80%  
177 5% 77%  
178 4% 72%  
179 6% 67%  
180 5% 61%  
181 6% 57%  
182 7% 50% Median
183 5% 43%  
184 5% 39%  
185 5% 33%  
186 5% 28%  
187 4% 23%  
188 4% 20%  
189 3% 16%  
190 3% 13%  
191 2% 10%  
192 2% 8%  
193 1.4% 6%  
194 0.9% 4%  
195 0.9% 3%  
196 0.6% 2%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 0.9%  
200 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.7%  
114 0.3% 99.5%  
115 0.5% 99.2%  
116 0.7% 98.7%  
117 0.7% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 1.4% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 3% 92%  
122 3% 89%  
123 4% 86%  
124 4% 82%  
125 6% 78%  
126 5% 72%  
127 7% 67%  
128 7% 61%  
129 5% 54% Median
130 8% 49%  
131 5% 42%  
132 6% 37%  
133 6% 31%  
134 4% 25%  
135 5% 21%  
136 3% 16%  
137 3% 14%  
138 2% 10%  
139 2% 8%  
140 2% 6%  
141 0.7% 4%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.4% 1.3%  
145 0.4% 0.9%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0.1% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.3% 99.6%  
115 0.5% 99.3%  
116 1.0% 98.8%  
117 1.3% 98%  
118 1.5% 97%  
119 3% 95%  
120 4% 92%  
121 4% 89%  
122 4% 85%  
123 8% 81%  
124 5% 73%  
125 5% 68%  
126 6% 62%  
127 9% 56% Median
128 4% 47%  
129 6% 42%  
130 5% 37%  
131 5% 32%  
132 4% 27%  
133 3% 24%  
134 4% 21%  
135 3% 17%  
136 2% 15%  
137 3% 13%  
138 2% 10%  
139 1.4% 8%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.3% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.8% 2%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.0%  
146 0.2% 0.6%  
147 0.2% 0.4%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 1.1% 99.0%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 3% 92%  
81 4% 89%  
82 4% 85%  
83 7% 81%  
84 5% 74%  
85 10% 69%  
86 6% 59%  
87 8% 53% Median
88 9% 45%  
89 6% 36%  
90 6% 31%  
91 4% 24%  
92 6% 20%  
93 3% 14%  
94 3% 12% Last Result
95 3% 9%  
96 1.4% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.2%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98.6%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 2% 95%  
73 4% 92%  
74 4% 89%  
75 4% 85%  
76 4% 81%  
77 6% 76%  
78 6% 70%  
79 6% 64%  
80 8% 58% Last Result
81 7% 50% Median
82 8% 43%  
83 6% 35%  
84 7% 29%  
85 5% 22%  
86 6% 17%  
87 4% 12%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 7% 84%  
58 6% 77%  
59 9% 71%  
60 12% 62%  
61 9% 50% Median
62 6% 41%  
63 9% 35%  
64 6% 26%  
65 7% 20%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 1.0% 99.2%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 5% 93%  
38 6% 88%  
39 9% 82%  
40 9% 73%  
41 10% 64%  
42 11% 55% Median
43 12% 44%  
44 8% 32%  
45 7% 24%  
46 6% 17% Last Result
47 4% 11%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.4% 3%  
51 0.7% 1.5%  
52 0.4% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 481 100% 471–491 469–493 466–496 462–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 433 100% 421–443 419–445 416–448 411–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 432 100% 422–442 419–445 416–447 412–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 391 100% 380–401 378–404 375–407 370–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 353 41% 343–363 339–366 337–369 332–374
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 351 34% 341–363 339–366 336–368 332–374
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 338 2% 327–348 325–352 322–353 317–358
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 318 0% 308–329 305–331 302–334 298–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 311 0% 300–321 297–324 295–326 290–331
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 304 0% 293–314 290–317 288–320 283–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 257 0% 248–268 245–271 242–273 238–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 210 0% 199–219 196–221 194–223 189–227
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 181–199 178–202 176–204 172–208

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
456 0% 100%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0.1% 99.8%  
461 0.1% 99.7%  
462 0.2% 99.6%  
463 0.3% 99.3%  
464 0.5% 99.0%  
465 0.5% 98.5%  
466 0.7% 98% Last Result
467 0.9% 97%  
468 1.0% 96%  
469 1.5% 95%  
470 2% 94%  
471 2% 92%  
472 3% 90%  
473 3% 87%  
474 3% 84%  
475 3% 80%  
476 6% 77%  
477 5% 71%  
478 5% 67%  
479 4% 62%  
480 4% 57% Median
481 5% 53%  
482 8% 48%  
483 4% 40%  
484 4% 36%  
485 5% 31%  
486 3% 26%  
487 5% 23%  
488 3% 19%  
489 3% 16%  
490 2% 12%  
491 2% 10%  
492 2% 8%  
493 1.3% 6%  
494 1.1% 5%  
495 0.9% 4%  
496 0.7% 3%  
497 0.6% 2%  
498 0.4% 1.4%  
499 0.3% 0.9%  
500 0.2% 0.7%  
501 0.1% 0.5%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0.2% 99.7%  
411 0.1% 99.6%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.3% 99.3%  
414 0.7% 98.9%  
415 0.7% 98%  
416 0.9% 98%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 0.7% 96%  
419 1.3% 95%  
420 2% 94%  
421 3% 92%  
422 1.2% 90%  
423 2% 88%  
424 1.5% 87%  
425 2% 85%  
426 5% 83%  
427 4% 79%  
428 3% 74%  
429 3% 71%  
430 3% 69%  
431 4% 66%  
432 7% 61%  
433 5% 55%  
434 5% 50% Median
435 3% 45%  
436 3% 42%  
437 5% 39%  
438 6% 34%  
439 5% 28%  
440 4% 22%  
441 2% 19%  
442 3% 17%  
443 3% 13%  
444 3% 10%  
445 2% 7%  
446 2% 5%  
447 0.7% 3%  
448 0.7% 3%  
449 0.5% 2%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.4% 0.9%  
452 0.2% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0.1% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.1% 99.7%  
412 0.2% 99.5%  
413 0.3% 99.3%  
414 0.2% 99.0%  
415 0.7% 98.8%  
416 0.7% 98%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 1.1% 97%  
419 1.1% 96%  
420 1.5% 94%  
421 2% 93%  
422 2% 91%  
423 3% 88%  
424 3% 86%  
425 4% 83%  
426 3% 79%  
427 5% 76%  
428 5% 71%  
429 5% 66%  
430 4% 61%  
431 4% 57%  
432 6% 53% Median
433 5% 47%  
434 7% 43%  
435 4% 36%  
436 3% 31%  
437 4% 28%  
438 5% 24%  
439 3% 19%  
440 3% 16%  
441 3% 13%  
442 2% 11%  
443 1.3% 9%  
444 2% 8%  
445 2% 5%  
446 1.0% 4%  
447 0.7% 3%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.3% 1.2%  
451 0.3% 0.9%  
452 0.2% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.2% 99.7%  
370 0.2% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.4%  
372 0.3% 99.2%  
373 0.4% 98.9%  
374 0.6% 98%  
375 0.8% 98%  
376 0.7% 97%  
377 1.0% 96%  
378 2% 95%  
379 2% 94%  
380 2% 92%  
381 2% 89%  
382 3% 87%  
383 3% 84%  
384 3% 81%  
385 4% 79%  
386 3% 75%  
387 4% 71%  
388 5% 67%  
389 4% 62%  
390 5% 57%  
391 3% 52%  
392 8% 49% Median
393 4% 41%  
394 6% 37%  
395 4% 31%  
396 4% 27%  
397 4% 24%  
398 4% 20%  
399 2% 16%  
400 3% 14%  
401 2% 11%  
402 2% 9%  
403 1.4% 7%  
404 1.2% 6%  
405 1.1% 4%  
406 0.8% 3%  
407 0.8% 3%  
408 0.5% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 0.9%  
411 0.2% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.3% 99.4%  
334 0.4% 99.1%  
335 0.5% 98.7%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 0.6% 98%  
338 1.0% 97%  
339 1.2% 96%  
340 2% 95%  
341 1.5% 93%  
342 1.2% 92%  
343 2% 91%  
344 3% 89%  
345 2% 85%  
346 4% 83%  
347 3% 78%  
348 4% 75%  
349 5% 71%  
350 5% 66%  
351 6% 61%  
352 4% 55%  
353 3% 50% Median
354 7% 48%  
355 6% 41% Majority
356 3% 35%  
357 3% 32%  
358 3% 29%  
359 4% 26%  
360 4% 21%  
361 3% 18%  
362 3% 15%  
363 3% 12%  
364 2% 9%  
365 2% 8%  
366 2% 6%  
367 0.7% 4%  
368 0.6% 3%  
369 0.9% 3%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.4% 1.3%  
372 0.2% 1.0%  
373 0.2% 0.8%  
374 0.3% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.3% 99.4%  
334 0.4% 99.0%  
335 0.7% 98.7%  
336 0.6% 98%  
337 1.0% 97%  
338 1.2% 96%  
339 1.3% 95%  
340 3% 94%  
341 1.4% 91%  
342 3% 90%  
343 3% 87%  
344 3% 84%  
345 5% 81%  
346 4% 76%  
347 5% 73%  
348 5% 67%  
349 4% 62%  
350 5% 58%  
351 4% 53% Median
352 5% 49%  
353 4% 43%  
354 5% 39%  
355 3% 34% Majority
356 5% 31%  
357 4% 27%  
358 3% 22%  
359 2% 20%  
360 2% 17%  
361 3% 15%  
362 2% 12%  
363 2% 10%  
364 2% 8%  
365 1.4% 7%  
366 0.9% 5%  
367 1.0% 4%  
368 0.8% 3%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.5% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.1%  
373 0.2% 0.8%  
374 0.2% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.3% 99.4%  
319 0.3% 99.1%  
320 0.4% 98.8%  
321 0.5% 98%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 0.9% 97%  
324 1.3% 96%  
325 1.5% 95%  
326 1.4% 94%  
327 2% 92%  
328 2% 90%  
329 3% 88%  
330 3% 85%  
331 4% 82%  
332 5% 78%  
333 5% 73%  
334 3% 68%  
335 4% 65%  
336 4% 61%  
337 6% 57% Median
338 4% 51%  
339 7% 46%  
340 4% 40%  
341 4% 36%  
342 3% 32%  
343 4% 28%  
344 4% 24%  
345 4% 20%  
346 2% 16%  
347 4% 14%  
348 2% 11%  
349 1.3% 9%  
350 2% 8%  
351 0.9% 6%  
352 2% 5%  
353 1.1% 3%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.4% 2% Majority
356 0.3% 1.3%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.7%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0.5% 98.8%  
302 0.8% 98%  
303 0.8% 97%  
304 1.1% 97%  
305 1.2% 96%  
306 1.4% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 3% 89%  
310 2% 86%  
311 4% 84%  
312 4% 80%  
313 4% 76%  
314 4% 73%  
315 6% 69%  
316 4% 63%  
317 8% 59% Median
318 3% 51%  
319 5% 48%  
320 4% 43%  
321 5% 38%  
322 4% 33%  
323 3% 29%  
324 4% 25%  
325 3% 21%  
326 3% 19%  
327 3% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 8%  
331 2% 6%  
332 1.0% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.8% 3%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.1%  
338 0.2% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.2% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.3% 99.2%  
293 0.4% 98.9%  
294 0.7% 98.5%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 1.2% 97%  
297 2% 96%  
298 1.0% 94%  
299 2% 93%  
300 3% 92%  
301 1.3% 89%  
302 3% 88%  
303 4% 84%  
304 2% 81%  
305 4% 78%  
306 5% 74%  
307 3% 69%  
308 7% 66%  
309 4% 59%  
310 5% 55%  
311 6% 50% Median
312 5% 44%  
313 4% 40%  
314 6% 36%  
315 3% 30%  
316 5% 27%  
317 4% 22%  
318 2% 18%  
319 3% 15%  
320 2% 12%  
321 2% 10%  
322 2% 9%  
323 2% 7%  
324 1.3% 5%  
325 1.1% 4%  
326 0.8% 3%  
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.3% 1.2%  
330 0.3% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.3%  
285 0.4% 99.1%  
286 0.5% 98.7%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.9% 98%  
289 0.9% 97%  
290 2% 96%  
291 1.3% 94%  
292 1.4% 93%  
293 2% 92%  
294 2% 89%  
295 3% 87%  
296 3% 84%  
297 4% 82%  
298 4% 78%  
299 3% 74%  
300 6% 71%  
301 4% 65%  
302 5% 61%  
303 5% 57%  
304 6% 52%  
305 3% 46% Median
306 3% 43%  
307 7% 39%  
308 4% 32%  
309 5% 28%  
310 3% 24%  
311 4% 21%  
312 3% 17%  
313 2% 14%  
314 2% 12%  
315 2% 9%  
316 2% 7%  
317 1.4% 6%  
318 1.4% 4%  
319 0.5% 3%  
320 0.8% 3%  
321 0.5% 2%  
322 0.3% 1.3%  
323 0.3% 1.0%  
324 0.3% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.3% 99.6%  
239 0.3% 99.3%  
240 0.5% 99.0%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.9% 98%  
243 0.6% 97%  
244 1.3% 96%  
245 1.4% 95%  
246 2% 94%  
247 2% 92%  
248 2% 90%  
249 2% 88%  
250 3% 86%  
251 4% 82%  
252 5% 79%  
253 5% 73%  
254 5% 68%  
255 5% 63%  
256 6% 58% Median
257 6% 53%  
258 6% 47%  
259 4% 41%  
260 3% 37%  
261 3% 33%  
262 4% 30%  
263 3% 26%  
264 4% 23%  
265 3% 19%  
266 3% 16%  
267 2% 13%  
268 2% 11%  
269 2% 9%  
270 1.5% 7%  
271 2% 5%  
272 0.8% 3%  
273 1.0% 3%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.4% 1.4%  
276 0.2% 1.0%  
277 0.2% 0.8%  
278 0.2% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.2% 99.6%  
190 0.4% 99.4%  
191 0.4% 99.1%  
192 0.6% 98.7%  
193 0.5% 98%  
194 1.0% 98%  
195 1.2% 97%  
196 2% 95%  
197 1.3% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 2% 90%  
200 2% 88%  
201 2% 86%  
202 3% 84%  
203 3% 81%  
204 3% 79%  
205 3% 75%  
206 4% 72%  
207 4% 68%  
208 5% 64%  
209 4% 59%  
210 5% 55% Median
211 6% 50%  
212 6% 44%  
213 4% 38%  
214 5% 34%  
215 5% 29%  
216 5% 24%  
217 4% 19%  
218 4% 15%  
219 2% 11%  
220 2% 9%  
221 2% 7%  
222 1.1% 5%  
223 1.2% 4%  
224 1.0% 2%  
225 0.3% 1.4%  
226 0.4% 1.1%  
227 0.3% 0.7%  
228 0.2% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.3%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.3% 99.5%  
173 0.4% 99.2%  
174 0.3% 98.8%  
175 0.6% 98.5%  
176 0.9% 98%  
177 1.0% 97%  
178 1.3% 96%  
179 2% 95%  
180 2% 93%  
181 2% 91%  
182 3% 89%  
183 4% 86%  
184 4% 82%  
185 4% 78%  
186 4% 74%  
187 5% 69%  
188 5% 65%  
189 5% 60%  
190 6% 55% Median
191 6% 48%  
192 5% 43%  
193 4% 38%  
194 7% 34%  
195 4% 27%  
196 4% 23%  
197 4% 19%  
198 3% 15%  
199 2% 12%  
200 2% 10%  
201 2% 7%  
202 2% 6%  
203 0.9% 4%  
204 0.9% 3%  
205 0.9% 2%  
206 0.5% 2%  
207 0.4% 1.1%  
208 0.2% 0.7%  
209 0.2% 0.5%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations