Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 15–17 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.5% 22.0–25.1% 21.6–25.6% 21.2–26.0% 20.5–26.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.5–21.5% 18.2–21.9% 17.8–22.3% 17.1–23.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.5% 7.5–10.8% 7.1–11.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7% 4.3–6.9% 4.0–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 179 167–191 164–194 161–197 156–203
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 152 141–163 138–166 135–169 131–175
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 119–139 116–143 114–146 109–151
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 77–92 75–95 72–99 67–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 61–77 59–80 57–82 54–86
Die Linke 69 53 46–61 45–63 43–64 40–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 36–49 34–51 33–52 30–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.1% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.4%  
158 0.3% 99.2%  
159 0.4% 98.9%  
160 0.5% 98.6%  
161 0.6% 98%  
162 0.7% 97%  
163 0.8% 97%  
164 1.2% 96%  
165 1.3% 95%  
166 2% 93%  
167 2% 92%  
168 2% 90%  
169 3% 87%  
170 3% 85%  
171 3% 82%  
172 3% 79%  
173 4% 76%  
174 4% 72%  
175 4% 68%  
176 4% 64%  
177 3% 60%  
178 5% 57%  
179 3% 51% Median
180 4% 48%  
181 4% 44%  
182 5% 39%  
183 5% 35%  
184 3% 30%  
185 4% 27%  
186 4% 24%  
187 2% 20%  
188 3% 17%  
189 2% 14%  
190 2% 12%  
191 2% 10%  
192 1.4% 8%  
193 1.1% 7%  
194 1.3% 6%  
195 0.9% 4%  
196 0.6% 4%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
201 0.2% 1.1%  
202 0.3% 0.9%  
203 0.1% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.1% 99.6%  
131 0.2% 99.5%  
132 0.3% 99.3%  
133 0.3% 99.0%  
134 0.6% 98.7%  
135 0.7% 98%  
136 0.7% 97%  
137 1.0% 97%  
138 1.2% 96%  
139 1.2% 94%  
140 2% 93%  
141 2% 91%  
142 2% 89%  
143 3% 87%  
144 4% 84%  
145 2% 80%  
146 5% 78%  
147 5% 74%  
148 3% 69%  
149 4% 66%  
150 6% 62%  
151 4% 56%  
152 4% 53% Median
153 6% 49%  
154 4% 42%  
155 2% 38%  
156 6% 36%  
157 3% 29%  
158 2% 26%  
159 5% 24%  
160 3% 19%  
161 2% 16%  
162 3% 14%  
163 2% 11%  
164 1.0% 10%  
165 3% 9%  
166 1.4% 6%  
167 0.6% 5%  
168 1.0% 4%  
169 0.8% 3%  
170 0.3% 2%  
171 0.6% 2%  
172 0.4% 1.4%  
173 0.2% 1.0%  
174 0.3% 0.8%  
175 0.2% 0.6%  
176 0.1% 0.4%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.6%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.3% 99.2%  
112 0.5% 98.9%  
113 0.7% 98%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 1.1% 97%  
116 1.3% 96%  
117 1.2% 95%  
118 2% 94%  
119 2% 91%  
120 2% 89%  
121 4% 88%  
122 3% 83%  
123 5% 81%  
124 6% 76%  
125 4% 70%  
126 4% 66%  
127 6% 62%  
128 3% 56%  
129 4% 53% Median
130 6% 49%  
131 2% 43%  
132 4% 41%  
133 5% 36%  
134 4% 31%  
135 5% 28%  
136 4% 22%  
137 3% 18%  
138 3% 15%  
139 2% 12%  
140 2% 10%  
141 2% 8%  
142 0.9% 6%  
143 1.0% 5%  
144 0.8% 4%  
145 0.4% 3%  
146 0.7% 3%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.4% 2%  
149 0.3% 1.2%  
150 0.2% 0.9%  
151 0.2% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.3%  
69 0.4% 98.9%  
70 0.6% 98%  
71 0.4% 98%  
72 0.4% 98%  
73 0.6% 97%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 94%  
77 6% 90%  
78 8% 85%  
79 8% 77%  
80 9% 69%  
81 5% 60%  
82 3% 55%  
83 2% 52% Median
84 2% 50%  
85 2% 48%  
86 4% 45%  
87 5% 41%  
88 5% 36%  
89 8% 30%  
90 7% 22%  
91 4% 16%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 8%  
94 1.1% 6% Last Result
95 0.5% 5%  
96 0.5% 5%  
97 0.5% 4%  
98 0.6% 4%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.4%  
102 0.4% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 0.9% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 2% 94%  
61 2% 92%  
62 4% 90%  
63 5% 86%  
64 5% 81%  
65 4% 76%  
66 6% 73%  
67 6% 67%  
68 6% 60%  
69 5% 54% Median
70 8% 49%  
71 6% 41%  
72 5% 35%  
73 6% 30%  
74 5% 24%  
75 4% 19%  
76 3% 15%  
77 3% 12%  
78 2% 9%  
79 1.3% 7%  
80 2% 5% Last Result
81 1.2% 4%  
82 0.6% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.4%  
85 0.3% 0.9%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 99.4%  
42 0.8% 99.0%  
43 1.2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 4% 86%  
49 6% 82%  
50 5% 76%  
51 7% 71%  
52 7% 64%  
53 9% 56% Median
54 7% 48%  
55 7% 41%  
56 6% 33%  
57 6% 28%  
58 5% 22%  
59 4% 18%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 8%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.2% 4%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 0.5% 99.5%  
32 1.0% 99.0%  
33 2% 98%  
34 2% 96%  
35 3% 95%  
36 4% 92%  
37 6% 87%  
38 6% 82%  
39 7% 76%  
40 8% 69%  
41 9% 61%  
42 7% 52% Median
43 8% 45%  
44 7% 37%  
45 7% 30%  
46 5% 23% Last Result
47 4% 18%  
48 4% 14%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 7%  
51 2% 5%  
52 1.1% 3%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 502 100% 490–514 487–518 484–521 477–528
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 443 100% 429–454 424–458 422–462 416–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 419 100% 406–433 402–437 399–440 393–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 374 97% 361–387 357–391 354–395 348–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 373 96% 360–387 356–391 352–394 346–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 350 36% 337–363 333–368 330–372 323–378
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 350 34% 337–364 333–368 330–371 324–378
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 335 3% 322–348 318–352 314–355 307–361
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 304 0% 291–318 288–321 284–325 279–333
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 290 0% 277–303 273–307 270–310 263–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 282 0% 269–294 265–299 261–301 254–308
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 186–210 183–214 180–217 175–223
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 171–195 168–198 165–201 159–207

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.9%  
474 0% 99.8%  
475 0.1% 99.8%  
476 0.1% 99.7%  
477 0.1% 99.6%  
478 0.1% 99.4%  
479 0.2% 99.3%  
480 0.3% 99.1%  
481 0.4% 98.8%  
482 0.3% 98%  
483 0.5% 98%  
484 0.6% 98%  
485 0.8% 97%  
486 1.0% 96%  
487 0.9% 95%  
488 1.2% 94%  
489 2% 93%  
490 2% 92%  
491 2% 90%  
492 3% 87%  
493 2% 85%  
494 4% 82%  
495 4% 79%  
496 3% 75%  
497 3% 72%  
498 3% 69%  
499 5% 66%  
500 3% 61%  
501 4% 58%  
502 4% 53% Median
503 4% 50%  
504 4% 46%  
505 5% 42%  
506 4% 38%  
507 3% 34%  
508 4% 31%  
509 3% 27%  
510 3% 23%  
511 4% 21%  
512 3% 17%  
513 1.4% 14%  
514 3% 13%  
515 2% 10%  
516 0.8% 8%  
517 1.3% 7%  
518 1.2% 6%  
519 0.9% 5%  
520 0.8% 4%  
521 0.6% 3%  
522 0.5% 2%  
523 0.2% 2%  
524 0.4% 2%  
525 0.3% 1.2%  
526 0.1% 0.9%  
527 0.2% 0.7%  
528 0.1% 0.5%  
529 0.1% 0.4%  
530 0% 0.3%  
531 0.1% 0.3%  
532 0% 0.2%  
533 0% 0.2%  
534 0% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.6%  
417 0.2% 99.4%  
418 0.2% 99.2%  
419 0.4% 99.0%  
420 0.6% 98.6%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.7% 97%  
424 1.2% 96%  
425 0.6% 95%  
426 2% 94%  
427 1.1% 93%  
428 2% 92%  
429 2% 90%  
430 2% 88%  
431 3% 87%  
432 1.4% 84%  
433 2% 83%  
434 3% 81%  
435 2% 78%  
436 3% 76%  
437 2% 72%  
438 3% 70%  
439 3% 67%  
440 4% 64%  
441 4% 60%  
442 4% 56% Median
443 5% 53%  
444 3% 47%  
445 5% 44%  
446 5% 40%  
447 4% 35%  
448 4% 30%  
449 4% 26%  
450 4% 23%  
451 3% 19%  
452 2% 16%  
453 3% 14%  
454 2% 11%  
455 2% 10%  
456 1.1% 8%  
457 1.3% 7%  
458 1.0% 6%  
459 0.7% 5%  
460 0.8% 4%  
461 0.4% 3%  
462 0.6% 3%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.3% 2%  
465 0.2% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.3%  
467 0.2% 1.0%  
468 0.1% 0.8%  
469 0.1% 0.7%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0.1% 99.4%  
395 0.3% 99.2%  
396 0.2% 99.0%  
397 0.6% 98.7%  
398 0.3% 98%  
399 0.8% 98%  
400 0.5% 97%  
401 1.0% 97%  
402 1.0% 96%  
403 0.7% 95%  
404 2% 94%  
405 1.2% 92%  
406 1.5% 91%  
407 2% 90%  
408 2% 88%  
409 2% 86%  
410 2% 84%  
411 2% 82%  
412 3% 79%  
413 3% 76%  
414 3% 73%  
415 4% 70%  
416 3% 66%  
417 4% 63%  
418 5% 59%  
419 5% 54% Median
420 4% 50%  
421 3% 46%  
422 5% 42%  
423 3% 37%  
424 3% 33%  
425 4% 31%  
426 5% 27%  
427 2% 23%  
428 3% 21%  
429 2% 18%  
430 2% 16%  
431 2% 14%  
432 2% 12%  
433 2% 10%  
434 0.9% 8%  
435 1.4% 7%  
436 1.0% 6%  
437 0.9% 5%  
438 0.6% 4%  
439 0.8% 4%  
440 0.7% 3%  
441 0.4% 2%  
442 0.3% 2%  
443 0.3% 1.4%  
444 0.3% 1.1%  
445 0.1% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.2% 99.5%  
349 0.2% 99.3%  
350 0.2% 99.1%  
351 0.3% 98.9%  
352 0.6% 98.6%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 1.0% 97% Majority
356 0.7% 96%  
357 0.8% 95%  
358 1.2% 95%  
359 1.4% 93%  
360 0.9% 92%  
361 2% 91%  
362 2% 89%  
363 2% 87%  
364 3% 85%  
365 3% 83%  
366 2% 80%  
367 5% 77%  
368 4% 73%  
369 3% 69%  
370 4% 67%  
371 4% 62%  
372 3% 58%  
373 4% 55% Median
374 3% 51%  
375 3% 48%  
376 4% 45%  
377 3% 41%  
378 2% 37%  
379 3% 35%  
380 3% 32%  
381 4% 28%  
382 3% 25%  
383 2% 22%  
384 2% 20%  
385 3% 18%  
386 2% 14%  
387 2% 12%  
388 2% 10%  
389 1.2% 8%  
390 1.0% 7%  
391 1.1% 6%  
392 0.7% 5%  
393 0.8% 4%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.6% 3%  
396 0.6% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.2%  
400 0.2% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.5%  
347 0.3% 99.4%  
348 0.2% 99.1%  
349 0.2% 98.9%  
350 0.5% 98.7%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.4% 97%  
354 0.6% 97%  
355 0.6% 96% Majority
356 1.1% 96%  
357 1.4% 94%  
358 1.1% 93%  
359 1.4% 92%  
360 1.2% 91%  
361 2% 89%  
362 3% 88%  
363 3% 85%  
364 3% 82%  
365 3% 80%  
366 3% 77%  
367 3% 74%  
368 5% 71%  
369 3% 66%  
370 5% 63%  
371 3% 59%  
372 3% 56%  
373 5% 53% Median
374 4% 47%  
375 3% 43%  
376 3% 40%  
377 4% 37%  
378 3% 33%  
379 3% 29%  
380 3% 26%  
381 2% 23%  
382 1.5% 21%  
383 2% 19%  
384 3% 17%  
385 2% 14%  
386 1.3% 12%  
387 2% 11%  
388 1.1% 9%  
389 1.4% 8%  
390 1.2% 6%  
391 0.9% 5%  
392 0.9% 4%  
393 0.6% 3%  
394 0.6% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.3%  
398 0.2% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.1% 99.5%  
325 0.2% 99.4%  
326 0.3% 99.2%  
327 0.3% 98.9%  
328 0.4% 98.6%  
329 0.5% 98%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 1.0% 97%  
333 0.8% 96%  
334 1.1% 95%  
335 1.2% 94%  
336 2% 93%  
337 1.4% 91%  
338 3% 90%  
339 2% 87%  
340 2% 85%  
341 2% 83%  
342 3% 81%  
343 2% 78%  
344 3% 75%  
345 4% 72%  
346 4% 68%  
347 3% 64%  
348 3% 61%  
349 5% 58%  
350 3% 52% Median
351 5% 49%  
352 4% 44%  
353 3% 40%  
354 2% 37%  
355 5% 36% Majority
356 4% 30%  
357 3% 26%  
358 2% 23%  
359 3% 21%  
360 0.9% 18%  
361 4% 17%  
362 2% 13%  
363 1.3% 11%  
364 1.0% 10%  
365 2% 9%  
366 0.6% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 1.0% 5%  
369 0.7% 4%  
370 0.4% 4%  
371 0.6% 3%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.6% 2%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 1.0%  
377 0.1% 0.8%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.2% 99.5%  
325 0.2% 99.4%  
326 0.3% 99.2%  
327 0.4% 98.9%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.8% 97%  
332 0.7% 96%  
333 1.0% 96%  
334 1.2% 95%  
335 0.9% 93%  
336 1.3% 93%  
337 1.3% 91%  
338 2% 90%  
339 2% 88%  
340 2% 86%  
341 3% 84%  
342 3% 81%  
343 3% 78%  
344 3% 75%  
345 4% 72%  
346 3% 68%  
347 5% 65%  
348 4% 61%  
349 4% 57%  
350 4% 53% Median
351 4% 49%  
352 3% 45%  
353 4% 42%  
354 4% 38%  
355 2% 34% Majority
356 3% 32%  
357 3% 29%  
358 3% 26%  
359 2% 23%  
360 3% 21%  
361 2% 18%  
362 2% 16%  
363 3% 14%  
364 1.3% 11%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.1% 7%  
368 1.5% 6%  
369 0.6% 4%  
370 0.6% 4%  
371 0.7% 3%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.4% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.3%  
375 0.2% 1.1%  
376 0.2% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.3%  
310 0.3% 99.1%  
311 0.3% 98.8%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.6% 98%  
314 0.6% 98%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.8% 97%  
317 0.7% 96%  
318 1.1% 95%  
319 1.0% 94%  
320 1.2% 93%  
321 2% 92%  
322 2% 90%  
323 2% 88%  
324 3% 86%  
325 2% 82%  
326 2% 80%  
327 3% 78%  
328 4% 75%  
329 3% 72%  
330 3% 68%  
331 2% 65%  
332 3% 63%  
333 4% 59%  
334 3% 55% Median
335 3% 52%  
336 4% 49%  
337 3% 45%  
338 4% 42%  
339 4% 38%  
340 3% 33%  
341 4% 31%  
342 5% 27%  
343 2% 23%  
344 3% 20%  
345 3% 17%  
346 2% 15%  
347 2% 13%  
348 2% 11%  
349 0.9% 9%  
350 1.4% 8%  
351 1.2% 7%  
352 0.8% 5%  
353 0.7% 5%  
354 1.0% 4%  
355 0.4% 3% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.6% 2%  
358 0.3% 1.4%  
359 0.2% 1.1%  
360 0.2% 0.9%  
361 0.2% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0.5% 99.2%  
283 0.6% 98.6%  
284 1.1% 98%  
285 0.6% 97%  
286 0.6% 96%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 1.0% 95%  
289 2% 94%  
290 2% 93%  
291 1.4% 91%  
292 2% 90%  
293 1.4% 88%  
294 1.3% 86%  
295 3% 85%  
296 1.5% 82%  
297 2% 81%  
298 2% 79%  
299 4% 77%  
300 6% 72%  
301 5% 66%  
302 5% 61%  
303 4% 56%  
304 3% 51% Median
305 2% 48%  
306 2% 46%  
307 4% 44%  
308 2% 40%  
309 3% 38%  
310 3% 35%  
311 4% 32%  
312 3% 28%  
313 3% 25%  
314 3% 22%  
315 2% 19%  
316 1.5% 17%  
317 3% 16%  
318 3% 12%  
319 3% 10%  
320 2% 7%  
321 1.0% 5%  
322 0.6% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.3% 2%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.2%  
331 0.3% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1% Last Result
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.3% 99.4%  
266 0.3% 99.1%  
267 0.2% 98.8%  
268 0.2% 98.5%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.7% 98%  
271 0.6% 97%  
272 0.9% 96%  
273 0.9% 96%  
274 1.2% 95%  
275 1.4% 93%  
276 2% 92%  
277 1.3% 90%  
278 2% 89%  
279 2% 87%  
280 2% 85%  
281 4% 83%  
282 2% 80%  
283 3% 77%  
284 3% 75%  
285 6% 72%  
286 2% 66%  
287 2% 64%  
288 4% 62%  
289 6% 58%  
290 2% 51% Median
291 3% 49%  
292 3% 46%  
293 6% 42%  
294 2% 36%  
295 4% 34%  
296 3% 31%  
297 5% 28%  
298 2% 23%  
299 3% 21%  
300 2% 18%  
301 2% 15%  
302 2% 13%  
303 1.4% 11%  
304 2% 10%  
305 0.8% 8%  
306 1.2% 7%  
307 1.1% 6%  
308 1.2% 5%  
309 0.6% 3%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.5%  
314 0.1% 1.2%  
315 0.2% 1.0%  
316 0.3% 0.8%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.2% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0.5% 99.2%  
259 0.6% 98.8%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 1.3% 97%  
265 2% 95%  
266 1.2% 93%  
267 0.7% 92%  
268 0.6% 91%  
269 2% 90%  
270 4% 89%  
271 4% 85%  
272 3% 81%  
273 0.8% 78%  
274 0.9% 77%  
275 3% 76%  
276 4% 73%  
277 7% 69%  
278 3% 62%  
279 1.4% 58%  
280 1.5% 57%  
281 4% 56% Median
282 5% 52%  
283 7% 47%  
284 3% 40%  
285 1.1% 36%  
286 2% 35%  
287 4% 34%  
288 5% 30%  
289 5% 25%  
290 2% 20%  
291 0.6% 18%  
292 0.8% 17%  
293 3% 16%  
294 4% 14%  
295 2% 10%  
296 0.9% 7%  
297 0.3% 7%  
298 0.5% 6%  
299 1.2% 6%  
300 2% 5%  
301 0.8% 3%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.1% 2%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.4% 1.1%  
307 0.2% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.2% 99.5%  
176 0.2% 99.3%  
177 0.3% 99.1%  
178 0.4% 98.9%  
179 0.5% 98%  
180 0.5% 98%  
181 0.9% 97%  
182 0.7% 97%  
183 1.4% 96%  
184 1.1% 94%  
185 1.3% 93%  
186 2% 92%  
187 2% 90%  
188 2% 88%  
189 3% 86%  
190 3% 83%  
191 3% 80%  
192 4% 77%  
193 3% 74%  
194 4% 71%  
195 3% 66%  
196 5% 63%  
197 4% 58%  
198 5% 54% Median
199 3% 49%  
200 6% 46%  
201 4% 40%  
202 4% 37%  
203 3% 33%  
204 3% 30%  
205 3% 26%  
206 3% 23%  
207 3% 20%  
208 2% 17%  
209 3% 15%  
210 2% 12%  
211 2% 10%  
212 1.4% 8%  
213 2% 7%  
214 0.8% 5%  
215 0.9% 5%  
216 0.8% 4%  
217 0.6% 3%  
218 0.3% 2%  
219 0.6% 2%  
220 0.3% 1.4%  
221 0.2% 1.1%  
222 0.2% 0.8%  
223 0.2% 0.7%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.7%  
158 0.1% 99.6%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.2% 99.4%  
161 0.2% 99.2%  
162 0.3% 99.0%  
163 0.3% 98.7%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 0.6% 98%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 1.1% 96%  
168 1.1% 95%  
169 2% 94%  
170 1.1% 92%  
171 2% 91%  
172 2% 90%  
173 3% 87%  
174 3% 85%  
175 3% 82%  
176 3% 79%  
177 3% 76%  
178 5% 73%  
179 3% 68%  
180 5% 64%  
181 4% 59%  
182 4% 55% Median
183 5% 51%  
184 4% 46%  
185 5% 42%  
186 4% 38%  
187 4% 33%  
188 3% 29%  
189 4% 26%  
190 3% 22%  
191 3% 19%  
192 3% 16%  
193 2% 14%  
194 2% 12%  
195 2% 10%  
196 1.3% 8%  
197 1.3% 7%  
198 0.9% 5%  
199 1.0% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.3% 2%  
204 0.3% 1.3%  
205 0.3% 1.0%  
206 0.2% 0.8%  
207 0.2% 0.6%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations