Opinion Poll by Kantar, 11–17 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.6–24.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.9% 20.8–23.2% 20.4–23.5% 20.1–23.8% 19.6–24.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.6–18.5% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 166 157–175 154–177 152–180 148–184
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 157–174 154–177 152–180 148–183
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 120–136 118–139 116–141 112–145
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–82 67–84 66–86 63–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 76 69–82 67–84 66–86 63–89
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–44 33–45 31–46 29–49

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.3% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.3%  
150 0.5% 99.1%  
151 0.4% 98.6%  
152 1.0% 98%  
153 1.0% 97%  
154 2% 96%  
155 2% 95%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 91%  
158 3% 88%  
159 3% 85%  
160 5% 82%  
161 3% 77%  
162 6% 74%  
163 4% 68%  
164 6% 64%  
165 5% 57%  
166 8% 52% Median
167 6% 45%  
168 5% 39%  
169 5% 34%  
170 4% 30%  
171 6% 26%  
172 2% 20%  
173 5% 18%  
174 2% 13%  
175 3% 11%  
176 1.4% 8%  
177 2% 7%  
178 0.9% 5%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 0.5% 3%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.3%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.6%  
185 0.2% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0% 100%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.2% 99.3%  
150 0.4% 99.1%  
151 0.8% 98.7%  
152 1.1% 98%  
153 1.3% 97%  
154 2% 95%  
155 2% 94%  
156 2% 92%  
157 3% 91%  
158 4% 88%  
159 5% 84%  
160 5% 79%  
161 4% 75%  
162 5% 70%  
163 4% 65%  
164 4% 62%  
165 6% 58%  
166 7% 52% Median
167 7% 45%  
168 5% 38%  
169 5% 33%  
170 4% 27%  
171 4% 24%  
172 4% 20%  
173 4% 16%  
174 3% 12%  
175 2% 9%  
176 1.2% 7%  
177 1.1% 5%  
178 0.9% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.8% 3%  
181 0.7% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.1%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.3% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.6% 99.1%  
115 0.8% 98.6%  
116 0.9% 98%  
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 94%  
120 3% 91%  
121 4% 88%  
122 3% 84%  
123 5% 81%  
124 5% 76%  
125 5% 71%  
126 7% 66%  
127 6% 59%  
128 6% 53% Median
129 6% 47%  
130 6% 41%  
131 6% 35%  
132 5% 30%  
133 4% 24%  
134 4% 21%  
135 4% 17%  
136 4% 13%  
137 2% 9%  
138 2% 8%  
139 2% 6%  
140 1.0% 4%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.6% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.5%  
144 0.4% 1.0%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.7% 99.3%  
65 1.0% 98.7%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 4% 88%  
71 6% 84%  
72 7% 78%  
73 7% 71%  
74 8% 64%  
75 8% 56% Median
76 7% 48%  
77 7% 41%  
78 6% 34%  
79 7% 28%  
80 5% 21%  
81 4% 16%  
82 3% 12%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.2% 4%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.4%  
65 0.3% 98%  
66 2% 98%  
67 1.4% 96%  
68 4% 95%  
69 2% 90%  
70 6% 89%  
71 4% 82%  
72 8% 79%  
73 5% 71%  
74 9% 66%  
75 6% 56%  
76 10% 50% Median
77 7% 41%  
78 9% 34%  
79 3% 26%  
80 5% 22% Last Result
81 4% 17%  
82 5% 13%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.1% 4%  
86 1.1% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 1.0% 98.8%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 4% 90%  
56 6% 86%  
57 7% 79%  
58 7% 73%  
59 8% 65%  
60 9% 57% Median
61 8% 48%  
62 8% 40%  
63 7% 33%  
64 7% 25%  
65 5% 19%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.3% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 0.7% 99.3%  
31 1.4% 98.6%  
32 2% 97%  
33 5% 95%  
34 5% 90%  
35 10% 85%  
36 7% 75%  
37 11% 68%  
38 11% 57% Median
39 8% 45%  
40 10% 37%  
41 7% 27%  
42 7% 20%  
43 3% 13%  
44 4% 10%  
45 3% 6%  
46 2% 3% Last Result
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 498 100% 488–507 485–510 483–513 478–517
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 445 100% 434–455 431–458 429–461 424–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 408 100% 397–418 394–421 391–423 386–428
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 96% 359–380 356–383 353–386 348–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 369 96% 359–380 356–383 353–385 348–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 355 51% 344–365 341–368 338–371 333–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 354 49% 344–365 341–368 338–371 333–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 0.3% 321–342 318–346 316–348 311–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 294 0% 283–304 280–307 278–310 273–315
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 279 0% 269–289 266–293 264–295 258–300
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 269–290 266–292 263–295 258–300
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 203 0% 194–213 191–216 189–218 185–223
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 188 0% 179–197 176–202 175–203 170–208

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 99.9%  
474 0% 99.9%  
475 0.1% 99.9%  
476 0% 99.8%  
477 0.2% 99.7%  
478 0.1% 99.6%  
479 0.3% 99.5%  
480 0.3% 99.2%  
481 0.5% 98.9%  
482 0.5% 98%  
483 1.3% 98%  
484 0.9% 97%  
485 2% 96%  
486 1.3% 94%  
487 2% 92%  
488 3% 90%  
489 2% 87%  
490 4% 85%  
491 2% 81%  
492 4% 79%  
493 2% 75%  
494 6% 73%  
495 2% 67%  
496 7% 65%  
497 4% 58%  
498 7% 54% Median
499 5% 47%  
500 5% 42%  
501 6% 36%  
502 5% 31%  
503 5% 26%  
504 3% 21%  
505 4% 18%  
506 2% 13%  
507 3% 12%  
508 1.2% 9%  
509 2% 7%  
510 0.7% 5%  
511 1.4% 5%  
512 0.6% 3%  
513 0.9% 3%  
514 0.4% 2%  
515 0.5% 1.4%  
516 0.4% 1.0%  
517 0.2% 0.5%  
518 0.1% 0.4%  
519 0.1% 0.2%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.5%  
426 0.3% 99.3%  
427 0.4% 99.0%  
428 0.6% 98.6%  
429 0.8% 98%  
430 1.1% 97%  
431 2% 96%  
432 1.3% 94%  
433 2% 93%  
434 2% 92%  
435 2% 90%  
436 2% 88%  
437 3% 87%  
438 3% 84%  
439 4% 81%  
440 6% 77%  
441 5% 71%  
442 5% 66%  
443 5% 61%  
444 4% 56%  
445 4% 52%  
446 4% 48% Median
447 4% 44%  
448 4% 40%  
449 4% 35%  
450 6% 31%  
451 4% 26%  
452 3% 22%  
453 6% 18%  
454 2% 13%  
455 2% 10%  
456 1.3% 9%  
457 1.1% 7%  
458 1.2% 6%  
459 1.2% 5%  
460 1.0% 4%  
461 0.7% 3%  
462 0.7% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.4%  
464 0.4% 1.0%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.2% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.6%  
387 0.3% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.2%  
389 0.5% 99.0%  
390 0.4% 98.5%  
391 0.8% 98%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 1.1% 96%  
394 1.3% 95%  
395 1.2% 94%  
396 2% 93%  
397 3% 90%  
398 2% 88%  
399 2% 85%  
400 4% 84%  
401 4% 80%  
402 4% 76%  
403 4% 73%  
404 5% 69%  
405 4% 64%  
406 5% 60%  
407 5% 55%  
408 6% 50% Median
409 5% 44%  
410 5% 40%  
411 5% 35%  
412 4% 29%  
413 2% 25%  
414 4% 23%  
415 3% 19%  
416 3% 16%  
417 2% 13%  
418 2% 11%  
419 2% 9%  
420 1.4% 7%  
421 1.4% 6%  
422 1.2% 4%  
423 0.8% 3%  
424 0.6% 2%  
425 0.5% 2%  
426 0.3% 1.2%  
427 0.3% 1.0%  
428 0.3% 0.7%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.2% 99.6%  
349 0.2% 99.5%  
350 0.3% 99.2%  
351 0.4% 98.9%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.7% 98%  
354 1.0% 97%  
355 1.0% 96% Majority
356 1.4% 95%  
357 1.3% 94%  
358 2% 93%  
359 2% 90%  
360 2% 88%  
361 3% 86%  
362 3% 83%  
363 3% 80%  
364 4% 77%  
365 4% 73%  
366 3% 69%  
367 5% 66%  
368 5% 61%  
369 4% 56%  
370 6% 52% Median
371 4% 46%  
372 5% 42%  
373 4% 37%  
374 5% 33%  
375 4% 27%  
376 4% 23%  
377 3% 19%  
378 3% 16%  
379 3% 13%  
380 1.3% 10%  
381 2% 9%  
382 1.4% 7%  
383 1.2% 6%  
384 1.2% 5%  
385 0.9% 3%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.5%  
389 0.3% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.2% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.3% 99.4%  
350 0.3% 99.2%  
351 0.4% 98.8%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.8% 98%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 1.2% 96% Majority
356 1.1% 95%  
357 2% 94%  
358 2% 92%  
359 2% 90%  
360 3% 88%  
361 3% 86%  
362 3% 82%  
363 3% 79%  
364 5% 76%  
365 4% 72%  
366 5% 68%  
367 3% 63%  
368 5% 60%  
369 5% 54%  
370 5% 49% Median
371 5% 45%  
372 6% 40%  
373 4% 35%  
374 3% 31%  
375 4% 27%  
376 4% 24%  
377 4% 19%  
378 2% 16%  
379 2% 14%  
380 2% 12%  
381 2% 9%  
382 1.4% 7%  
383 2% 6%  
384 0.8% 4%  
385 1.0% 3%  
386 0.6% 2%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.4% 1.4%  
389 0.2% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.3% 99.2%  
336 0.4% 98.9%  
337 0.6% 98.6%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.8% 97%  
340 1.2% 97%  
341 0.8% 95%  
342 1.4% 95%  
343 2% 93%  
344 2% 91%  
345 2% 89%  
346 3% 87%  
347 3% 84%  
348 4% 81%  
349 3% 77%  
350 5% 74%  
351 5% 69%  
352 5% 65%  
353 5% 60%  
354 4% 55%  
355 5% 51% Median, Majority
356 4% 46%  
357 5% 42%  
358 5% 37%  
359 4% 32%  
360 4% 28%  
361 3% 24%  
362 4% 21%  
363 3% 17%  
364 3% 14%  
365 2% 12%  
366 2% 9%  
367 1.5% 7%  
368 1.1% 6%  
369 1.3% 5%  
370 0.8% 4%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.4% 1.3%  
375 0.2% 0.9%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.4% 99.1%  
336 0.3% 98.7%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.8% 97%  
340 1.3% 96%  
341 1.1% 95%  
342 1.5% 94%  
343 2% 93%  
344 2% 91%  
345 3% 88%  
346 3% 86%  
347 4% 83%  
348 3% 79%  
349 4% 76%  
350 4% 72%  
351 5% 68%  
352 5% 63%  
353 4% 58%  
354 5% 54% Median
355 4% 49% Majority
356 5% 45%  
357 5% 40%  
358 5% 35%  
359 5% 31%  
360 3% 26%  
361 4% 23%  
362 3% 19%  
363 3% 16%  
364 2% 13%  
365 2% 11%  
366 2% 9%  
367 1.4% 7%  
368 0.8% 5%  
369 1.2% 5%  
370 0.8% 3%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.4%  
374 0.3% 1.1%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.2% 99.7%  
311 0.3% 99.5%  
312 0.1% 99.2%  
313 0.2% 99.0%  
314 0.3% 98.8%  
315 0.8% 98.5%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 2% 97%  
318 0.4% 95%  
319 1.1% 95%  
320 0.8% 93%  
321 4% 93%  
322 2% 88%  
323 2% 86%  
324 5% 84%  
325 2% 79%  
326 1.4% 77%  
327 5% 76%  
328 6% 71%  
329 3% 64%  
330 6% 62%  
331 2% 56%  
332 4% 53% Median
333 3% 50%  
334 13% 47%  
335 2% 34%  
336 5% 32%  
337 2% 27%  
338 4% 25%  
339 2% 21%  
340 4% 19%  
341 4% 15%  
342 0.8% 10%  
343 1.0% 10%  
344 2% 9%  
345 1.3% 7%  
346 0.9% 5%  
347 1.4% 5%  
348 1.0% 3%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.7% 2%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.3% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.3% 99.2%  
276 0.5% 98.9%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 1.1% 97%  
280 1.1% 96%  
281 2% 95%  
282 2% 93%  
283 2% 91%  
284 2% 90%  
285 3% 88%  
286 4% 85%  
287 4% 81%  
288 3% 78%  
289 4% 75%  
290 5% 71%  
291 5% 66%  
292 4% 61%  
293 4% 57%  
294 5% 52% Median
295 6% 48%  
296 5% 42%  
297 4% 37%  
298 4% 33%  
299 4% 29%  
300 5% 25%  
301 3% 20%  
302 2% 17%  
303 3% 15%  
304 2% 12%  
305 2% 10%  
306 2% 8%  
307 1.4% 6%  
308 1.2% 5%  
309 1.1% 4%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.1%  
314 0.3% 0.8%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0.3% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.2%  
261 0.2% 99.0%  
262 0.4% 98.8%  
263 0.9% 98%  
264 1.0% 98%  
265 1.1% 97%  
266 1.1% 95%  
267 1.3% 94%  
268 2% 93%  
269 3% 91%  
270 4% 88%  
271 3% 85%  
272 3% 81%  
273 2% 78%  
274 3% 76%  
275 5% 72%  
276 4% 68%  
277 6% 64%  
278 4% 58%  
279 4% 53% Median
280 4% 50%  
281 5% 46%  
282 7% 41%  
283 5% 34%  
284 5% 29%  
285 4% 24%  
286 2% 20%  
287 3% 18%  
288 3% 15%  
289 3% 13%  
290 2% 9%  
291 1.2% 8%  
292 1.1% 6%  
293 1.0% 5%  
294 1.1% 4%  
295 1.0% 3%  
296 0.7% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.3% 1.2%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.6%  
301 0.2% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.2% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.5% 99.1%  
262 0.5% 98.6%  
263 0.6% 98%  
264 0.9% 97%  
265 1.1% 97%  
266 1.4% 96%  
267 1.5% 94%  
268 2% 93%  
269 2% 91%  
270 3% 89%  
271 3% 86%  
272 3% 83%  
273 3% 80%  
274 5% 77%  
275 4% 72%  
276 5% 68%  
277 5% 63%  
278 3% 58%  
279 6% 55%  
280 5% 49% Median
281 5% 44%  
282 5% 40%  
283 5% 34%  
284 5% 30%  
285 3% 25%  
286 3% 22%  
287 4% 19%  
288 2% 15%  
289 3% 13%  
290 2% 10%  
291 2% 8%  
292 2% 7%  
293 1.0% 5%  
294 0.9% 4%  
295 0.8% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.4% 1.3%  
299 0.3% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.2% 99.7%  
185 0.3% 99.5%  
186 0.3% 99.3%  
187 0.5% 99.0%  
188 0.6% 98.5%  
189 0.7% 98%  
190 1.2% 97%  
191 1.4% 96%  
192 1.5% 95%  
193 2% 93%  
194 3% 92%  
195 3% 89%  
196 3% 86%  
197 4% 83%  
198 4% 79%  
199 4% 75%  
200 4% 71%  
201 6% 66%  
202 5% 61%  
203 6% 56%  
204 5% 50% Median
205 6% 44%  
206 5% 39%  
207 4% 34%  
208 5% 30%  
209 3% 25%  
210 4% 22%  
211 2% 18%  
212 3% 15%  
213 3% 13%  
214 2% 9%  
215 2% 7%  
216 1.4% 6%  
217 1.1% 4%  
218 0.8% 3%  
219 0.6% 2%  
220 0.4% 2%  
221 0.4% 1.3%  
222 0.3% 0.9%  
223 0.1% 0.6%  
224 0.2% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.3% 99.7%  
171 0.4% 99.3%  
172 0.3% 98.9%  
173 0.3% 98.6%  
174 0.4% 98%  
175 0.9% 98%  
176 3% 97%  
177 2% 94%  
178 0.8% 92%  
179 1.2% 91%  
180 2% 90%  
181 4% 88%  
182 8% 84%  
183 5% 76%  
184 2% 71%  
185 4% 70%  
186 4% 66%  
187 6% 62%  
188 7% 56% Median
189 3% 49%  
190 6% 46%  
191 8% 40%  
192 4% 32%  
193 3% 28%  
194 2% 24%  
195 2% 23%  
196 7% 21%  
197 5% 15%  
198 2% 10%  
199 0.8% 8%  
200 0.7% 7%  
201 1.0% 6%  
202 2% 5%  
203 1.5% 3%  
204 0.3% 2%  
205 0.2% 1.3%  
206 0.3% 1.1%  
207 0.2% 0.8%  
208 0.3% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations