Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 8–21 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.2% 21.5–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.0–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 172 160–184 156–188 153–192 148–198
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 148–172 144–175 141–179 136–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 133 123–145 120–149 117–152 112–158
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 66–84 64–87 62–89 58–95
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 64 56–73 53–75 52–78 48–82
Die Linke 69 64 56–72 54–75 52–77 49–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–47 32–49 31–51 28–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.1% 99.5%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.1%  
151 0.4% 98.8%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.5% 98%  
154 0.8% 97%  
155 0.9% 97%  
156 1.0% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 1.0% 93%  
159 1.1% 92%  
160 2% 91%  
161 2% 89%  
162 3% 87%  
163 2% 84%  
164 2% 82%  
165 4% 80%  
166 3% 76%  
167 3% 73%  
168 4% 70%  
169 3% 66%  
170 5% 62%  
171 4% 57%  
172 4% 53% Median
173 5% 49%  
174 4% 44%  
175 4% 40%  
176 4% 36%  
177 4% 32%  
178 3% 28%  
179 3% 25%  
180 3% 21%  
181 3% 19%  
182 2% 16%  
183 3% 14%  
184 2% 11%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.2% 8%  
187 0.8% 7%  
188 0.8% 6%  
189 1.1% 5%  
190 0.8% 4%  
191 0.5% 3%  
192 0.5% 3%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.2% 1.3%  
196 0.3% 1.1%  
197 0.2% 0.8%  
198 0.2% 0.6%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.2% 99.4%  
138 0.3% 99.2%  
139 0.3% 98.8%  
140 0.5% 98%  
141 0.5% 98%  
142 0.8% 97%  
143 1.0% 97%  
144 1.2% 96%  
145 1.2% 95%  
146 2% 93%  
147 2% 92%  
148 3% 90%  
149 2% 88%  
150 3% 86%  
151 2% 83%  
152 4% 81%  
153 3% 76%  
154 3% 73%  
155 4% 70%  
156 4% 66%  
157 5% 62%  
158 3% 57%  
159 4% 54%  
160 5% 50% Median
161 4% 46%  
162 4% 41%  
163 3% 37%  
164 5% 34%  
165 4% 29%  
166 3% 25%  
167 3% 23%  
168 2% 19%  
169 3% 17%  
170 2% 15%  
171 2% 12%  
172 2% 11%  
173 1.2% 9%  
174 2% 8%  
175 1.2% 6%  
176 0.9% 5%  
177 0.8% 4%  
178 0.4% 3%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.3% 2%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.2% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.3%  
114 0.3% 99.1%  
115 0.6% 98.9%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 0.5% 98%  
118 0.5% 97%  
119 1.2% 97%  
120 2% 95%  
121 1.5% 93%  
122 1.0% 92%  
123 3% 91%  
124 3% 88%  
125 3% 85%  
126 1.3% 81%  
127 2% 80%  
128 7% 78%  
129 4% 71%  
130 3% 67%  
131 2% 64%  
132 6% 61%  
133 7% 55% Median
134 2% 48%  
135 4% 46%  
136 5% 43%  
137 5% 38%  
138 5% 33%  
139 1.4% 29%  
140 5% 27%  
141 4% 23%  
142 2% 18%  
143 2% 16%  
144 1.3% 14%  
145 3% 13%  
146 2% 10%  
147 0.8% 8%  
148 1.2% 7%  
149 1.0% 6%  
150 1.3% 5%  
151 0.7% 3%  
152 0.3% 3%  
153 0.7% 2% Last Result
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.2%  
156 0.1% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.7%  
158 0.3% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 0.4% 98.9%  
61 0.4% 98%  
62 0.9% 98%  
63 1.2% 97%  
64 1.5% 96%  
65 2% 94%  
66 4% 92%  
67 4% 89%  
68 4% 85%  
69 4% 81%  
70 4% 76%  
71 3% 72%  
72 4% 69%  
73 6% 65%  
74 6% 59%  
75 6% 53% Median
76 6% 47%  
77 8% 42%  
78 6% 34%  
79 4% 28%  
80 4% 24%  
81 3% 20%  
82 2% 17%  
83 2% 15%  
84 3% 13%  
85 2% 10%  
86 1.5% 7%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.2% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.5%  
92 0.3% 1.2%  
93 0.2% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.2% 99.3%  
50 0.2% 99.1%  
51 0.9% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 1.3% 96%  
54 0.9% 95%  
55 2% 94%  
56 4% 92%  
57 5% 87%  
58 2% 83%  
59 4% 80%  
60 6% 77%  
61 9% 70%  
62 4% 61%  
63 4% 58%  
64 7% 54% Median
65 10% 47%  
66 6% 37%  
67 2% 32%  
68 4% 30%  
69 6% 26%  
70 4% 19%  
71 2% 15%  
72 2% 13%  
73 4% 11%  
74 2% 7%  
75 0.9% 5%  
76 0.6% 4%  
77 1.2% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.5%  
80 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.7%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 0.6% 99.2%  
51 1.1% 98.6%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 1.3% 96%  
54 1.3% 95%  
55 2% 94%  
56 2% 92%  
57 5% 89%  
58 5% 84%  
59 6% 79%  
60 4% 73%  
61 4% 68%  
62 4% 64%  
63 8% 60%  
64 7% 52% Median
65 8% 45%  
66 5% 37%  
67 4% 32%  
68 3% 28%  
69 4% 25% Last Result
70 5% 21%  
71 4% 16%  
72 3% 12%  
73 2% 9%  
74 1.1% 7%  
75 1.1% 6%  
76 1.1% 5%  
77 1.4% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.3% 99.6%  
29 0.6% 99.3%  
30 1.0% 98.8%  
31 1.3% 98%  
32 2% 96%  
33 3% 94%  
34 4% 92%  
35 6% 88%  
36 5% 82%  
37 7% 77%  
38 7% 70%  
39 7% 62%  
40 8% 56% Median
41 8% 48%  
42 6% 40%  
43 6% 34%  
44 7% 28%  
45 4% 22%  
46 4% 17% Last Result
47 4% 13%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.3% 5%  
51 1.0% 3%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.6% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 506 100% 493–519 489–523 486–526 479–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 436 100% 422–450 418–454 414–457 407–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 411 100% 396–425 392–429 388–432 381–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 373 94% 358–387 354–391 350–395 343–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 357 60% 343–372 339–377 335–380 328–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 357 59% 343–372 339–376 335–380 328–387
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 352 40% 337–366 332–370 329–374 323–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 346 24% 332–361 328–365 324–369 317–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 293 0% 279–308 275–312 272–316 265–323
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 288 0% 273–302 269–306 266–310 259–316
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 262–291 258–295 255–299 249–306
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 198 0% 185–211 181–215 178–218 172–225
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 185–211 181–215 178–218 172–225

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0% 99.9%  
474 0% 99.9%  
475 0.1% 99.9%  
476 0.1% 99.8%  
477 0.1% 99.7%  
478 0.1% 99.7%  
479 0.2% 99.5%  
480 0.1% 99.4%  
481 0.2% 99.2%  
482 0.3% 99.0%  
483 0.4% 98.7%  
484 0.4% 98%  
485 0.4% 98%  
486 0.5% 98%  
487 0.8% 97%  
488 0.8% 96%  
489 0.9% 95%  
490 1.3% 95%  
491 1.2% 93%  
492 2% 92%  
493 1.3% 90%  
494 2% 89%  
495 3% 87%  
496 3% 84%  
497 2% 82%  
498 2% 79%  
499 3% 77%  
500 4% 74%  
501 3% 71%  
502 3% 67%  
503 4% 64%  
504 3% 60%  
505 4% 56% Median
506 5% 53%  
507 3% 48%  
508 3% 45%  
509 4% 42%  
510 4% 38%  
511 4% 34%  
512 3% 30%  
513 3% 27%  
514 3% 24%  
515 3% 21%  
516 3% 18%  
517 2% 15%  
518 2% 13%  
519 1.5% 11%  
520 2% 9%  
521 1.1% 8%  
522 1.2% 7%  
523 1.4% 5%  
524 0.7% 4%  
525 0.7% 3%  
526 0.5% 3%  
527 0.4% 2%  
528 0.4% 2%  
529 0.3% 1.3%  
530 0.2% 1.0%  
531 0.2% 0.7%  
532 0.1% 0.5%  
533 0.1% 0.4%  
534 0.1% 0.3%  
535 0.1% 0.2%  
536 0.1% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.2% 99.5%  
409 0.2% 99.3%  
410 0.2% 99.1%  
411 0.3% 99.0%  
412 0.3% 98.6%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 0.6% 97%  
416 0.7% 97%  
417 0.7% 96%  
418 0.9% 95%  
419 0.8% 94%  
420 1.1% 94%  
421 1.4% 93%  
422 1.4% 91%  
423 2% 90%  
424 2% 88%  
425 2% 86%  
426 2% 83%  
427 3% 81%  
428 2% 78%  
429 3% 77%  
430 3% 73%  
431 3% 70%  
432 3% 67%  
433 3% 63%  
434 4% 61%  
435 4% 56%  
436 3% 52% Median
437 3% 49%  
438 4% 45%  
439 3% 42%  
440 3% 38%  
441 4% 35%  
442 2% 31%  
443 3% 29%  
444 3% 25%  
445 3% 23%  
446 3% 20%  
447 2% 17%  
448 2% 15%  
449 2% 13%  
450 2% 11%  
451 1.1% 10%  
452 2% 9%  
453 0.7% 7%  
454 1.1% 6%  
455 1.2% 5%  
456 0.8% 4%  
457 0.5% 3%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.3% 2%  
460 0.3% 2%  
461 0.4% 1.4%  
462 0.2% 1.0%  
463 0.1% 0.8%  
464 0.2% 0.7%  
465 0.1% 0.5%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.6%  
382 0.2% 99.5%  
383 0.2% 99.3%  
384 0.3% 99.1%  
385 0.3% 98.9%  
386 0.3% 98.5%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 0.5% 98%  
389 0.6% 97%  
390 0.6% 97%  
391 0.9% 96%  
392 1.3% 95%  
393 0.8% 94%  
394 0.9% 93%  
395 2% 92%  
396 1.2% 91%  
397 2% 89%  
398 2% 88%  
399 2% 86%  
400 3% 84%  
401 2% 81%  
402 2% 79%  
403 4% 77%  
404 2% 73%  
405 3% 71%  
406 4% 67%  
407 3% 64%  
408 3% 61%  
409 3% 58% Median
410 4% 55%  
411 4% 51%  
412 2% 46%  
413 5% 44%  
414 3% 39%  
415 3% 36%  
416 3% 33%  
417 3% 30%  
418 3% 26%  
419 3% 24%  
420 2% 21%  
421 2% 19%  
422 3% 16%  
423 2% 14%  
424 2% 12%  
425 2% 10%  
426 1.3% 8%  
427 1.0% 7%  
428 0.9% 6%  
429 1.0% 5%  
430 0.6% 4%  
431 0.6% 4%  
432 0.7% 3%  
433 0.4% 2%  
434 0.4% 2%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.2% 1.2%  
437 0.2% 1.0%  
438 0.1% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.2%  
346 0.4% 99.1%  
347 0.3% 98.7%  
348 0.3% 98%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.4% 97%  
352 1.0% 97%  
353 0.7% 96%  
354 1.0% 95%  
355 1.1% 94% Majority
356 1.2% 93%  
357 1.3% 92%  
358 2% 91%  
359 3% 89%  
360 1.2% 86%  
361 2% 85%  
362 4% 83%  
363 1.3% 79%  
364 2% 78%  
365 4% 76%  
366 2% 71%  
367 4% 70%  
368 3% 66%  
369 2% 63%  
370 4% 60%  
371 4% 57%  
372 2% 52% Median
373 4% 50%  
374 5% 46%  
375 2% 41%  
376 3% 39%  
377 5% 36%  
378 3% 32%  
379 2% 28%  
380 3% 27%  
381 4% 24%  
382 2% 20%  
383 2% 18%  
384 2% 15%  
385 1.2% 14%  
386 2% 13%  
387 2% 10%  
388 0.7% 9%  
389 2% 8%  
390 0.9% 6%  
391 0.4% 5%  
392 0.9% 5%  
393 1.0% 4%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.6% 3%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.3%  
399 0.2% 1.0%  
400 0.1% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.5%  
403 0% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.6%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.2% 99.2%  
331 0.2% 99.1%  
332 0.4% 98.9%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.4% 98%  
335 0.4% 98%  
336 0.9% 97%  
337 0.6% 96%  
338 0.7% 96%  
339 0.9% 95%  
340 1.4% 94%  
341 0.7% 93%  
342 1.0% 92%  
343 1.4% 91%  
344 2% 90%  
345 2% 88%  
346 2% 86%  
347 2% 84%  
348 2% 82%  
349 2% 80%  
350 3% 77%  
351 4% 74%  
352 2% 69%  
353 3% 67%  
354 4% 64%  
355 5% 60% Majority
356 3% 55%  
357 3% 52% Median
358 4% 49%  
359 5% 45%  
360 3% 40%  
361 4% 37%  
362 2% 33%  
363 3% 31%  
364 3% 28%  
365 2% 25%  
366 2% 23%  
367 3% 21%  
368 1.1% 18%  
369 2% 17%  
370 1.3% 14%  
371 2% 13%  
372 1.2% 11%  
373 1.2% 10%  
374 1.4% 9%  
375 1.0% 7%  
376 0.9% 6%  
377 0.8% 5%  
378 1.1% 4%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.5% 3%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.2% 1.3%  
384 0.2% 1.0%  
385 0.2% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.6%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.1% 99.3%  
331 0.3% 99.1%  
332 0.3% 98.9%  
333 0.3% 98.6%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.6% 98%  
336 0.6% 97%  
337 0.6% 97%  
338 1.1% 96%  
339 0.8% 95%  
340 0.9% 94%  
341 2% 93%  
342 1.2% 92%  
343 1.3% 91%  
344 1.4% 89%  
345 2% 88%  
346 2% 85%  
347 2% 84%  
348 3% 81%  
349 3% 79%  
350 3% 75%  
351 4% 73%  
352 4% 69%  
353 2% 65%  
354 3% 62%  
355 3% 59% Majority
356 3% 57%  
357 4% 53% Median
358 3% 49%  
359 3% 46%  
360 4% 43%  
361 4% 39%  
362 3% 35%  
363 3% 32%  
364 3% 30%  
365 3% 26%  
366 2% 24%  
367 3% 21%  
368 2% 19%  
369 2% 17%  
370 2% 15%  
371 2% 13%  
372 1.5% 11%  
373 1.4% 9%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 0.7% 7%  
376 0.9% 6%  
377 1.2% 5%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.6% 3%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.4% 1.4%  
384 0.3% 1.1%  
385 0.1% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.1% 99.6%  
323 0.1% 99.5%  
324 0.2% 99.4%  
325 0.2% 99.2%  
326 0.2% 99.0%  
327 0.5% 98.7%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.5% 98%  
330 0.5% 97%  
331 1.1% 97%  
332 0.8% 96%  
333 0.9% 95%  
334 1.0% 94%  
335 1.4% 93%  
336 1.2% 91%  
337 1.2% 90%  
338 2% 89%  
339 1.3% 87%  
340 2% 86%  
341 1.1% 83%  
342 3% 82%  
343 2% 79%  
344 2% 77%  
345 3% 75%  
346 3% 72%  
347 2% 69%  
348 4% 67%  
349 3% 63%  
350 5% 60%  
351 4% 55% Median
352 3% 51%  
353 3% 48%  
354 5% 45%  
355 4% 40% Majority
356 3% 36%  
357 2% 33%  
358 4% 31%  
359 3% 26%  
360 2% 23%  
361 2% 20%  
362 2% 18%  
363 2% 16%  
364 2% 14%  
365 2% 12%  
366 1.4% 10%  
367 1.0% 9%  
368 0.7% 8%  
369 1.4% 7%  
370 0.9% 6%  
371 0.7% 5%  
372 0.6% 4%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.4% 3%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.2% 1.1%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.2% 0.8%  
381 0.2% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.3% 99.2%  
321 0.3% 98.9%  
322 0.3% 98.6%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.8% 96%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 1.1% 94%  
330 0.9% 93%  
331 2% 92%  
332 1.2% 91%  
333 2% 89%  
334 2% 87%  
335 2% 85%  
336 2% 83%  
337 2% 81%  
338 2% 79%  
339 2% 76%  
340 4% 74%  
341 3% 70%  
342 4% 67%  
343 2% 63%  
344 3% 61%  
345 4% 58% Median
346 4% 53%  
347 3% 50%  
348 3% 46%  
349 4% 44%  
350 3% 40%  
351 3% 36%  
352 4% 33%  
353 3% 30%  
354 2% 27%  
355 3% 24% Majority
356 3% 21%  
357 3% 19%  
358 2% 16%  
359 2% 15%  
360 2% 12%  
361 2% 11%  
362 1.1% 9%  
363 1.3% 8%  
364 1.1% 7%  
365 0.8% 5%  
366 0.8% 5%  
367 0.8% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.4% 3%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.4%  
373 0.2% 1.1%  
374 0.3% 1.0%  
375 0.1% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.2% 99.2%  
268 0.3% 99.0%  
269 0.2% 98.7%  
270 0.4% 98.5%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.6% 98%  
273 0.8% 97%  
274 1.0% 96%  
275 0.7% 95%  
276 1.2% 95%  
277 1.2% 93%  
278 1.3% 92%  
279 1.4% 91%  
280 1.4% 89%  
281 2% 88%  
282 2% 86%  
283 2% 84%  
284 3% 82%  
285 2% 79%  
286 3% 77%  
287 3% 74%  
288 4% 71%  
289 3% 67%  
290 4% 64%  
291 3% 60%  
292 4% 57%  
293 3% 52% Median
294 4% 49%  
295 3% 45%  
296 6% 42%  
297 2% 36%  
298 4% 34%  
299 3% 31%  
300 3% 28%  
301 2% 25%  
302 2% 23%  
303 2% 21%  
304 3% 19%  
305 2% 16%  
306 2% 14%  
307 1.2% 12%  
308 2% 11%  
309 0.6% 9%  
310 1.3% 8%  
311 1.1% 7%  
312 0.9% 6%  
313 0.9% 5%  
314 0.8% 4%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.4%  
320 0.4% 1.2%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.4%  
261 0.2% 99.3%  
262 0.3% 99.0%  
263 0.2% 98.7%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.5% 98%  
266 0.6% 98%  
267 0.7% 97%  
268 0.6% 96%  
269 1.2% 96%  
270 1.3% 95%  
271 0.8% 93%  
272 2% 93%  
273 2% 91%  
274 0.9% 89%  
275 2% 88%  
276 2% 86%  
277 2% 84%  
278 2% 82%  
279 3% 80%  
280 4% 77%  
281 3% 73%  
282 3% 71%  
283 4% 68%  
284 2% 64%  
285 3% 62%  
286 3% 59%  
287 5% 56% Median
288 3% 51%  
289 4% 48%  
290 4% 44%  
291 4% 40%  
292 2% 35%  
293 4% 34%  
294 3% 29%  
295 3% 26%  
296 3% 23%  
297 2% 21%  
298 3% 19%  
299 1.2% 15%  
300 2% 14%  
301 2% 12%  
302 1.1% 11%  
303 1.4% 9%  
304 2% 8%  
305 1.0% 6%  
306 1.0% 5%  
307 0.7% 4%  
308 0.6% 4%  
309 0.5% 3%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.4%  
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 0.8%  
316 0.2% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.3% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 98.9%  
253 0.5% 98.5%  
254 0.5% 98%  
255 0.9% 98%  
256 0.7% 97%  
257 0.8% 96%  
258 0.7% 95%  
259 1.1% 94%  
260 1.1% 93%  
261 1.2% 92%  
262 1.2% 91%  
263 2% 90%  
264 2% 88%  
265 2% 87%  
266 2% 85%  
267 3% 83%  
268 2% 80%  
269 2% 79%  
270 3% 76%  
271 4% 74%  
272 3% 69%  
273 4% 66%  
274 3% 62%  
275 3% 59%  
276 4% 55% Median
277 5% 51%  
278 3% 46%  
279 4% 43%  
280 3% 39%  
281 4% 35%  
282 3% 32%  
283 3% 29%  
284 3% 26%  
285 3% 23%  
286 2% 20%  
287 3% 18%  
288 2% 15%  
289 1.3% 13%  
290 1.1% 12%  
291 2% 10%  
292 1.2% 9%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 0.8% 6%  
295 1.0% 5%  
296 0.6% 4%  
297 0.5% 4%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.4% 1.4%  
303 0.2% 1.1%  
304 0.2% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.2% 99.6%  
173 0.1% 99.4%  
174 0.2% 99.3%  
175 0.3% 99.1%  
176 0.4% 98.7%  
177 0.5% 98%  
178 0.6% 98%  
179 0.6% 97%  
180 0.7% 97%  
181 0.9% 96%  
182 1.2% 95%  
183 1.3% 94%  
184 1.4% 92%  
185 2% 91%  
186 3% 89%  
187 2% 86%  
188 3% 84%  
189 3% 81%  
190 3% 79%  
191 3% 76%  
192 4% 73%  
193 4% 69%  
194 3% 65%  
195 4% 62%  
196 3% 58%  
197 5% 55% Median
198 3% 50%  
199 4% 47%  
200 3% 43%  
201 3% 40%  
202 4% 37%  
203 4% 32%  
204 4% 28%  
205 3% 24%  
206 2% 22%  
207 2% 19%  
208 2% 17%  
209 2% 15%  
210 3% 13%  
211 1.4% 11%  
212 1.4% 9%  
213 1.4% 8%  
214 1.4% 6%  
215 0.8% 5%  
216 0.8% 4%  
217 0.5% 3%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.5% 2%  
221 0.3% 1.4%  
222 0.2% 1.1% Last Result
223 0.2% 0.9%  
224 0.2% 0.7%  
225 0.1% 0.5%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0.1% 99.5%  
174 0.3% 99.3%  
175 0.4% 99.0%  
176 0.4% 98.6%  
177 0.3% 98%  
178 0.5% 98%  
179 0.8% 97%  
180 1.0% 97%  
181 0.7% 96%  
182 1.2% 95%  
183 2% 94%  
184 1.5% 92%  
185 2% 91%  
186 2% 89%  
187 2% 87%  
188 4% 85%  
189 2% 81%  
190 2% 79%  
191 2% 77%  
192 4% 75%  
193 6% 70%  
194 4% 64%  
195 2% 60%  
196 3% 58%  
197 5% 55% Median
198 5% 51%  
199 4% 46%  
200 3% 42%  
201 3% 39%  
202 4% 36%  
203 4% 32%  
204 2% 28%  
205 3% 26%  
206 3% 23%  
207 2% 20%  
208 2% 18%  
209 2% 16%  
210 3% 14%  
211 2% 11%  
212 1.4% 9%  
213 0.5% 7%  
214 0.7% 7%  
215 1.2% 6%  
216 1.4% 5%  
217 0.6% 3%  
218 0.4% 3%  
219 0.4% 2%  
220 0.4% 2%  
221 0.5% 2%  
222 0.2% 1.1%  
223 0.2% 0.8%  
224 0.1% 0.7%  
225 0.1% 0.6%  
226 0.1% 0.5%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations