Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–22 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.7–24.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 20.0–22.3% 19.6–22.7% 19.4–23.0% 18.8–23.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 170 160–178 158–181 156–183 151–187
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 163 154–172 151–174 149–176 145–181
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 115–131 113–134 111–136 108–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 77 71–84 69–86 67–87 64–91
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 77 71–84 69–86 67–88 64–91
Die Linke 69 62 56–68 54–70 53–72 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–43 32–44 31–46 29–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.3% 99.2%  
154 0.4% 99.0%  
155 0.8% 98.5%  
156 1.2% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 1.1% 95%  
159 2% 94%  
160 3% 92%  
161 4% 89%  
162 3% 85%  
163 2% 83%  
164 3% 80%  
165 7% 77%  
166 5% 70%  
167 6% 65%  
168 5% 59%  
169 3% 54%  
170 8% 51% Median
171 8% 42%  
172 5% 34%  
173 3% 30%  
174 3% 26%  
175 5% 23%  
176 4% 19%  
177 3% 14%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 10%  
180 2% 8%  
181 1.4% 6%  
182 1.2% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.7% 1.3%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.4%  
147 0.4% 99.0%  
148 0.5% 98.6%  
149 0.9% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.4% 96%  
152 2% 95%  
153 3% 93%  
154 2% 90%  
155 3% 89%  
156 4% 85%  
157 4% 81%  
158 4% 77%  
159 6% 72%  
160 4% 67%  
161 6% 63%  
162 6% 57%  
163 7% 51% Median
164 6% 44%  
165 5% 38%  
166 5% 33%  
167 4% 28%  
168 4% 24%  
169 3% 20%  
170 4% 16%  
171 2% 13%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.4% 6%  
175 1.2% 5%  
176 0.9% 3%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.3% 1.2%  
180 0.3% 0.9%  
181 0.2% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.2% 99.7%  
108 0.3% 99.5%  
109 0.5% 99.2%  
110 0.6% 98.7%  
111 1.1% 98%  
112 1.2% 97%  
113 2% 96%  
114 2% 94%  
115 3% 92%  
116 3% 89%  
117 5% 86%  
118 5% 81%  
119 4% 77%  
120 7% 73%  
121 5% 66%  
122 7% 61%  
123 7% 54% Median
124 6% 47%  
125 6% 41%  
126 6% 35%  
127 5% 29%  
128 5% 24%  
129 4% 19%  
130 3% 15%  
131 3% 12%  
132 2% 9%  
133 2% 7%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.0% 4%  
136 1.0% 3%  
137 0.4% 2%  
138 0.4% 1.2%  
139 0.3% 0.9%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 93%  
71 4% 90%  
72 5% 86%  
73 4% 81%  
74 8% 77%  
75 6% 69%  
76 9% 63%  
77 9% 53% Median
78 6% 45%  
79 6% 38%  
80 6% 32%  
81 6% 26%  
82 5% 19%  
83 3% 14%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 8%  
86 1.5% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.6% 99.5%  
66 0.6% 98.9%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 5% 90%  
72 4% 85%  
73 6% 80%  
74 6% 74%  
75 7% 69%  
76 6% 61%  
77 10% 55% Median
78 8% 45%  
79 7% 37%  
80 6% 30% Last Result
81 5% 25%  
82 5% 19%  
83 4% 15%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 8%  
86 2% 6%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.5%  
52 1.0% 99.1%  
53 1.3% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 6% 88%  
58 6% 83%  
59 8% 77%  
60 8% 69%  
61 9% 61%  
62 9% 52% Median
63 9% 43%  
64 8% 34%  
65 5% 27%  
66 5% 22%  
67 5% 17%  
68 4% 12%  
69 3% 8% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 1.3% 3%  
73 0.6% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 0.9% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 97%  
33 5% 94%  
34 7% 89%  
35 9% 82%  
36 9% 73%  
37 9% 64%  
38 11% 55% Median
39 12% 44%  
40 9% 32%  
41 6% 23%  
42 6% 17%  
43 3% 11%  
44 3% 8%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.1% 3% Last Result
47 0.6% 1.5%  
48 0.4% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 483–502 480–506 478–507 473–513
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 447 100% 437–457 434–460 431–462 426–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 401 100% 390–411 387–414 384–416 380–422
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 370 97% 359–380 356–383 354–386 348–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 370 96% 359–380 356–383 353–385 348–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 354 50% 344–365 341–368 339–371 333–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 355 50% 344–365 341–368 338–370 333–376
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 325 0% 315–335 313–336 306–337 305–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 293 0% 282–303 279–306 277–308 271–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 278 0% 268–288 264–291 262–294 257–298
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 267–288 264–291 262–294 257–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 200 0% 191–210 188–212 186–215 181–220
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 185 0% 176–194 173–197 171–200 167–204

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0.1% 100%  
469 0.1% 99.9%  
470 0% 99.8%  
471 0.1% 99.8%  
472 0.2% 99.8%  
473 0.2% 99.6%  
474 0.4% 99.4%  
475 0.2% 99.0%  
476 0.3% 98.8%  
477 0.3% 98.5%  
478 0.7% 98%  
479 1.3% 97%  
480 2% 96%  
481 1.1% 94%  
482 1.0% 93%  
483 2% 92%  
484 4% 90%  
485 4% 86%  
486 3% 82%  
487 3% 79%  
488 2% 76%  
489 2% 74%  
490 8% 72%  
491 8% 64%  
492 5% 56%  
493 3% 51%  
494 3% 48% Median
495 7% 44%  
496 7% 37%  
497 5% 31%  
498 3% 26%  
499 3% 23%  
500 2% 21%  
501 4% 19%  
502 5% 15%  
503 2% 10%  
504 2% 7%  
505 0.8% 6%  
506 0.9% 5%  
507 2% 4%  
508 0.8% 2%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.3%  
511 0.2% 1.0%  
512 0.3% 0.9%  
513 0.3% 0.6%  
514 0.2% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0.3% 99.2%  
429 0.5% 98.9%  
430 0.5% 98%  
431 0.7% 98%  
432 0.8% 97%  
433 1.3% 96%  
434 1.0% 95%  
435 2% 94%  
436 2% 92%  
437 2% 90%  
438 3% 88%  
439 3% 86%  
440 4% 83%  
441 3% 79%  
442 5% 75%  
443 4% 70%  
444 5% 67%  
445 7% 62%  
446 5% 56%  
447 5% 51%  
448 4% 46% Median
449 4% 42%  
450 6% 38%  
451 5% 32%  
452 4% 28%  
453 3% 23%  
454 3% 20%  
455 3% 17%  
456 3% 14%  
457 2% 11%  
458 2% 9%  
459 1.4% 7%  
460 1.1% 5%  
461 1.3% 4%  
462 0.8% 3%  
463 0.4% 2%  
464 0.5% 2%  
465 0.3% 1.3%  
466 0.4% 1.1%  
467 0.2% 0.6%  
468 0.2% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0.1% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.5%  
381 0.2% 99.3%  
382 0.5% 99.1%  
383 0.7% 98.6%  
384 0.5% 98%  
385 0.7% 97%  
386 0.9% 97%  
387 0.8% 96%  
388 1.4% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 1.5% 90%  
392 4% 88%  
393 3% 84%  
394 4% 82%  
395 4% 78%  
396 4% 74%  
397 3% 70%  
398 5% 66%  
399 4% 62%  
400 5% 57%  
401 3% 53% Median
402 9% 49%  
403 3% 40%  
404 6% 37%  
405 5% 31%  
406 3% 26%  
407 3% 23%  
408 3% 20%  
409 3% 17%  
410 2% 14%  
411 2% 12%  
412 2% 10%  
413 2% 8%  
414 1.4% 6%  
415 1.1% 5%  
416 1.1% 3%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0.5% 2%  
419 0.4% 1.4%  
420 0.3% 1.0%  
421 0.2% 0.7%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.2% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.4% 99.4%  
351 0.3% 99.0%  
352 0.3% 98.7%  
353 0.9% 98%  
354 0.9% 98%  
355 0.7% 97% Majority
356 2% 96%  
357 1.0% 94%  
358 1.3% 93%  
359 3% 92%  
360 2% 89%  
361 3% 87%  
362 3% 84%  
363 3% 81%  
364 4% 78%  
365 6% 74%  
366 3% 68%  
367 4% 66%  
368 7% 62%  
369 4% 55%  
370 4% 51%  
371 6% 47% Median
372 2% 41%  
373 7% 39%  
374 4% 32%  
375 2% 28%  
376 5% 25%  
377 3% 20%  
378 2% 17%  
379 3% 16%  
380 3% 13%  
381 1.1% 10%  
382 2% 8%  
383 2% 6%  
384 0.8% 5%  
385 1.1% 4%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.7% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.1% 0.9%  
391 0.3% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.2% 99.6%  
349 0.2% 99.4%  
350 0.3% 99.2%  
351 0.5% 98.9%  
352 0.3% 98%  
353 0.8% 98%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 1.0% 96% Majority
356 1.2% 95%  
357 2% 94%  
358 1.4% 92%  
359 2% 91%  
360 2% 89%  
361 5% 87%  
362 2% 82%  
363 4% 80%  
364 4% 76%  
365 4% 72%  
366 3% 68%  
367 6% 65%  
368 4% 59%  
369 5% 55%  
370 5% 51% Median
371 6% 46%  
372 4% 39%  
373 4% 35%  
374 4% 31%  
375 4% 27%  
376 4% 23%  
377 3% 19%  
378 3% 17%  
379 2% 13%  
380 2% 11%  
381 2% 9%  
382 1.1% 7%  
383 1.2% 6%  
384 0.9% 4%  
385 0.9% 3%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.4%  
389 0.4% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.6%  
334 0.3% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.2%  
336 0.4% 99.0%  
337 0.4% 98.6%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 1.0% 98%  
340 0.8% 96%  
341 1.0% 96%  
342 1.3% 95%  
343 2% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 3% 90%  
346 2% 87%  
347 2% 85%  
348 5% 82%  
349 4% 78%  
350 4% 74%  
351 6% 70%  
352 7% 65%  
353 4% 58%  
354 4% 54%  
355 3% 50% Median, Majority
356 5% 46%  
357 4% 41%  
358 6% 37%  
359 3% 31%  
360 4% 29%  
361 3% 24%  
362 4% 21%  
363 2% 17%  
364 3% 14%  
365 2% 11%  
366 3% 10%  
367 2% 7%  
368 1.1% 5%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 0.7% 3%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.4% 1.2%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.2% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.4%  
335 0.4% 99.2%  
336 0.5% 98.8%  
337 0.5% 98%  
338 0.7% 98%  
339 0.6% 97%  
340 0.9% 97%  
341 1.1% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 3% 93%  
344 2% 90%  
345 3% 89%  
346 2% 86%  
347 4% 83%  
348 3% 79%  
349 4% 76%  
350 3% 71%  
351 6% 69%  
352 4% 63%  
353 5% 59%  
354 3% 54%  
355 4% 50% Median, Majority
356 4% 46%  
357 7% 42%  
358 6% 35%  
359 4% 30%  
360 4% 26%  
361 5% 22%  
362 2% 18%  
363 2% 15%  
364 3% 13%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.3% 7%  
368 1.0% 5%  
369 0.8% 4%  
370 1.0% 4%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.3% 0.8%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0.1% 100%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.2% 99.8%  
305 0.9% 99.6%  
306 2% 98.7%  
307 1.2% 97%  
308 0.3% 95%  
309 0% 95%  
310 0% 95%  
311 0% 95%  
312 0% 95%  
313 0.3% 95%  
314 3% 95%  
315 9% 92%  
316 10% 83%  
317 5% 73%  
318 0.4% 68%  
319 0% 68%  
320 0% 68%  
321 0% 68%  
322 0.1% 68%  
323 2% 68%  
324 11% 66% Median
325 20% 55%  
326 10% 35%  
327 3% 24%  
328 0.2% 22%  
329 0% 21%  
330 0% 21%  
331 0% 21%  
332 0.4% 21%  
333 3% 21%  
334 6% 18%  
335 7% 12%  
336 3% 5%  
337 0.4% 3%  
338 0% 2%  
339 0% 2%  
340 0% 2%  
341 0% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.8% 1.4%  
345 0.4% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.2% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.5%  
273 0.3% 99.3%  
274 0.4% 99.0%  
275 0.5% 98.6%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 1.1% 98%  
278 0.8% 96%  
279 1.2% 96%  
280 2% 94%  
281 2% 93%  
282 3% 91%  
283 2% 88%  
284 2% 87%  
285 3% 84%  
286 5% 81%  
287 4% 77%  
288 4% 72%  
289 3% 68%  
290 5% 65%  
291 4% 60%  
292 6% 56%  
293 4% 50% Median
294 8% 46%  
295 3% 38%  
296 4% 35%  
297 6% 31%  
298 3% 25%  
299 4% 22%  
300 3% 19%  
301 4% 16%  
302 2% 12%  
303 2% 10%  
304 1.4% 8%  
305 2% 7%  
306 1.1% 5%  
307 1.1% 4%  
308 0.5% 3%  
309 0.6% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.6% 2%  
312 0.2% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.2% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.3% 99.4%  
259 0.3% 99.1%  
260 0.3% 98.8%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.9% 98%  
263 1.1% 97%  
264 1.0% 96%  
265 2% 95%  
266 2% 93%  
267 1.4% 92%  
268 3% 90%  
269 3% 88%  
270 4% 85%  
271 3% 81%  
272 4% 78%  
273 4% 74%  
274 5% 70%  
275 4% 65%  
276 5% 61%  
277 5% 56%  
278 4% 51% Median
279 6% 47%  
280 4% 41%  
281 6% 37%  
282 4% 31%  
283 4% 27%  
284 4% 23%  
285 2% 19%  
286 4% 17%  
287 3% 13%  
288 2% 10%  
289 2% 9%  
290 1.3% 7%  
291 1.2% 6%  
292 1.1% 4%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.8% 3%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.3%  
297 0.3% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.3% 99.4%  
259 0.3% 99.1%  
260 0.4% 98.8%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.9% 98%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 1.4% 96%  
265 1.3% 95%  
266 2% 94%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 3% 88%  
270 4% 85%  
271 4% 82%  
272 4% 78%  
273 4% 74%  
274 5% 70%  
275 5% 66%  
276 6% 61%  
277 5% 55%  
278 4% 50% Median
279 6% 46%  
280 6% 40%  
281 4% 34%  
282 3% 30%  
283 4% 26%  
284 3% 23%  
285 3% 19%  
286 2% 16%  
287 2% 13%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 9%  
290 1.3% 7%  
291 1.1% 6%  
292 1.4% 5%  
293 0.7% 3%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.3%  
297 0.3% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.2% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.2% 99.5%  
183 0.4% 99.3%  
184 0.5% 98.9%  
185 0.8% 98%  
186 0.9% 98%  
187 1.3% 97%  
188 1.2% 95%  
189 2% 94%  
190 2% 92%  
191 2% 90%  
192 3% 88%  
193 3% 85%  
194 3% 82%  
195 5% 78%  
196 5% 73%  
197 4% 68%  
198 5% 64%  
199 4% 59%  
200 7% 55% Median
201 5% 48%  
202 4% 42%  
203 5% 38%  
204 5% 33%  
205 3% 27%  
206 5% 25%  
207 2% 19%  
208 4% 17%  
209 3% 14%  
210 2% 10%  
211 2% 9%  
212 1.4% 6%  
213 1.3% 5%  
214 0.8% 4%  
215 0.7% 3%  
216 0.5% 2%  
217 0.5% 2%  
218 0.3% 1.1%  
219 0.3% 0.8%  
220 0.2% 0.5%  
221 0.1% 0.4%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0.1% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.5%  
168 0.3% 99.3%  
169 0.4% 99.0%  
170 0.6% 98.6%  
171 1.0% 98%  
172 1.2% 97%  
173 1.2% 96%  
174 1.3% 95%  
175 2% 93%  
176 3% 91%  
177 3% 88%  
178 3% 85%  
179 2% 82%  
180 5% 79%  
181 5% 74%  
182 5% 69%  
183 6% 64%  
184 6% 58%  
185 4% 52% Median
186 8% 47%  
187 3% 40%  
188 4% 36%  
189 5% 32%  
190 5% 27%  
191 4% 22%  
192 3% 18%  
193 3% 15%  
194 3% 13%  
195 2% 9%  
196 2% 7%  
197 2% 6%  
198 0.9% 4%  
199 0.9% 3%  
200 0.9% 3%  
201 0.4% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.3%  
203 0.3% 1.0%  
204 0.3% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations