Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 19–22 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.2–23.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 19.1–21.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.3–11.7% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.1% 9.6–12.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.5% 9.5–11.6% 9.1–12.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 157 150–164 148–166 147–168 144–171
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 151 142–156 140–158 139–159 137–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 135 128–142 127–144 125–145 122–148
Alternative für Deutschland 94 81 77–88 76–90 75–91 72–93
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 79 74–84 72–86 71–87 69–90
Die Linke 69 53 52–55 52–55 51–56 43–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 48–56 47–57 46–59 44–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.7%  
144 0.3% 99.5%  
145 0.7% 99.2%  
146 0.9% 98%  
147 0.9% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 2% 95%  
150 3% 93%  
151 4% 90%  
152 5% 86%  
153 6% 81%  
154 5% 75%  
155 6% 70%  
156 7% 63%  
157 8% 56% Median
158 8% 48%  
159 7% 40%  
160 6% 34%  
161 6% 28%  
162 6% 21%  
163 3% 16%  
164 4% 13%  
165 3% 9%  
166 2% 6%  
167 1.3% 4%  
168 1.0% 3%  
169 0.7% 2%  
170 0.5% 1.3%  
171 0.3% 0.8%  
172 0.2% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 100%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.2% 99.8%  
137 0.4% 99.6%  
138 0.8% 99.2%  
139 1.3% 98%  
140 2% 97%  
141 3% 95%  
142 3% 92%  
143 4% 89%  
144 3% 85%  
145 3% 82%  
146 3% 78%  
147 4% 75%  
148 5% 72%  
149 5% 67%  
150 8% 62%  
151 7% 53% Median
152 8% 46%  
153 10% 38%  
154 8% 29%  
155 7% 21%  
156 5% 14%  
157 3% 9%  
158 2% 5%  
159 1.0% 3%  
160 0.7% 2%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.3% 1.3%  
163 0.2% 0.9%  
164 0.2% 0.7%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0.1% 100%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.3% 99.6%  
123 0.6% 99.3%  
124 0.8% 98.8%  
125 1.2% 98%  
126 2% 97%  
127 2% 95%  
128 3% 93%  
129 3% 90%  
130 4% 86%  
131 6% 82%  
132 6% 76%  
133 6% 69%  
134 7% 63%  
135 7% 57% Median
136 8% 49%  
137 8% 41%  
138 6% 33%  
139 6% 27%  
140 6% 21%  
141 4% 15%  
142 3% 12%  
143 3% 8%  
144 2% 6%  
145 1.2% 3%  
146 0.7% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.4%  
148 0.4% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.4%  
74 1.1% 99.0%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 6% 93%  
78 8% 86%  
79 10% 79%  
80 11% 68%  
81 9% 57% Median
82 8% 48%  
83 7% 40%  
84 6% 33%  
85 4% 27%  
86 5% 23%  
87 4% 18%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 0.9% 99.0%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 4% 90%  
75 6% 86%  
76 9% 80%  
77 10% 71%  
78 9% 61%  
79 9% 52% Median
80 9% 43% Last Result
81 8% 33%  
82 6% 25%  
83 6% 19%  
84 4% 13%  
85 3% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.2%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.3%  
45 0.4% 98.5%  
46 0.1% 98%  
47 0% 98%  
48 0% 98%  
49 0% 98%  
50 0.1% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 14% 96%  
53 32% 82% Median
54 31% 50%  
55 14% 19%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.3% 0.9%  
58 0% 0.6%  
59 0% 0.6%  
60 0% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 1.0% 99.3%  
46 2% 98% Last Result
47 4% 96%  
48 5% 93%  
49 9% 88%  
50 10% 79%  
51 12% 69%  
52 13% 57% Median
53 11% 44%  
54 10% 32%  
55 8% 23%  
56 5% 14%  
57 4% 9%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.7% 1.4%  
61 0.4% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 495 100% 487–502 485–503 483–505 480–509
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 438 100% 431–446 429–448 427–450 423–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 423 100% 415–431 413–433 411–435 407–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 99.3% 364–380 362–382 361–383 354–386
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 365 90% 355–372 352–374 350–376 347–380
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 360 80% 352–368 349–370 347–371 343–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 344 5% 337–352 334–355 332–357 329–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 0.7% 329–345 327–347 326–348 323–355
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 284–301 282–303 280–305 276–308
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 288 0% 280–296 278–299 276–301 273–305
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 287 0% 275–292 274–293 272–295 270–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 214 0% 206–222 204–224 202–225 198–229
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 189 0% 182–196 180–197 178–198 174–202

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0.1% 99.9%  
478 0.1% 99.9%  
479 0.2% 99.8%  
480 0.4% 99.6%  
481 0.5% 99.2%  
482 0.6% 98.7%  
483 0.9% 98%  
484 1.3% 97%  
485 2% 96%  
486 3% 94%  
487 2% 91%  
488 3% 89%  
489 5% 86%  
490 4% 81%  
491 5% 78%  
492 5% 72%  
493 6% 68%  
494 8% 61%  
495 6% 54% Median
496 8% 48%  
497 7% 40%  
498 8% 34%  
499 6% 26%  
500 5% 20%  
501 4% 14%  
502 3% 11%  
503 2% 7%  
504 2% 5%  
505 1.0% 3%  
506 0.7% 2%  
507 0.5% 1.5%  
508 0.3% 0.9%  
509 0.2% 0.6%  
510 0.2% 0.4%  
511 0.1% 0.2%  
512 0.1% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.2% 99.6%  
424 0.3% 99.4%  
425 0.6% 99.0%  
426 0.9% 98%  
427 1.2% 98%  
428 1.3% 96%  
429 2% 95%  
430 3% 93%  
431 4% 91%  
432 4% 87%  
433 4% 83%  
434 5% 79%  
435 4% 74%  
436 7% 70%  
437 7% 63%  
438 8% 56%  
439 6% 48% Median
440 6% 42%  
441 6% 36%  
442 5% 30%  
443 7% 25%  
444 5% 19%  
445 3% 14%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 9%  
448 2% 7%  
449 1.2% 4%  
450 1.3% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.5% 1.3%  
453 0.3% 0.9%  
454 0.1% 0.6%  
455 0.2% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.2% 99.8%  
407 0.2% 99.7%  
408 0.3% 99.5%  
409 0.5% 99.1%  
410 0.5% 98.7%  
411 1.0% 98%  
412 2% 97%  
413 2% 96%  
414 2% 94%  
415 2% 91%  
416 3% 89%  
417 2% 87%  
418 4% 84%  
419 4% 81%  
420 6% 77%  
421 7% 71%  
422 7% 64%  
423 8% 57% Median
424 6% 49%  
425 6% 43%  
426 6% 37%  
427 7% 31%  
428 4% 24%  
429 5% 20%  
430 4% 15%  
431 3% 11%  
432 2% 8%  
433 2% 7%  
434 2% 5%  
435 1.0% 3%  
436 0.7% 2%  
437 0.5% 1.5%  
438 0.3% 1.0%  
439 0.3% 0.7%  
440 0.2% 0.4%  
441 0.1% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.2% 99.7%  
354 0.2% 99.5%  
355 0.3% 99.3% Majority
356 0.3% 99.0%  
357 0.2% 98.7%  
358 0.3% 98.5%  
359 0.2% 98%  
360 0.4% 98%  
361 1.0% 98%  
362 2% 97%  
363 4% 95%  
364 5% 91%  
365 8% 85%  
366 10% 78%  
367 10% 68%  
368 10% 58%  
369 8% 48% Median
370 5% 41%  
371 4% 36%  
372 2% 32%  
373 1.3% 29%  
374 1.2% 28%  
375 2% 27%  
376 2% 25%  
377 3% 23%  
378 5% 20%  
379 3% 15%  
380 4% 12%  
381 3% 8%  
382 2% 5%  
383 2% 3%  
384 0.7% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.0%  
386 0.3% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.3% 99.6%  
348 0.4% 99.3%  
349 0.8% 99.0%  
350 0.8% 98%  
351 1.3% 97%  
352 2% 96%  
353 2% 94%  
354 2% 92%  
355 3% 90% Majority
356 2% 88%  
357 3% 86%  
358 3% 83%  
359 3% 79%  
360 3% 76%  
361 5% 73%  
362 5% 68%  
363 5% 64%  
364 6% 59%  
365 5% 53% Median
366 7% 48%  
367 6% 41%  
368 7% 34%  
369 7% 28%  
370 5% 21%  
371 4% 16%  
372 3% 12%  
373 3% 9%  
374 1.4% 6%  
375 1.4% 4%  
376 1.1% 3%  
377 0.7% 2%  
378 0.4% 1.2%  
379 0.3% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.7%  
344 0.3% 99.5%  
345 0.4% 99.2%  
346 0.8% 98.9%  
347 0.9% 98%  
348 0.9% 97%  
349 2% 96%  
350 2% 94%  
351 1.5% 92%  
352 5% 91%  
353 3% 86%  
354 4% 83%  
355 6% 80% Majority
356 5% 73%  
357 4% 68%  
358 8% 64%  
359 6% 56%  
360 5% 50% Median
361 9% 45%  
362 6% 36%  
363 3% 31%  
364 7% 28%  
365 5% 21%  
366 2% 16%  
367 3% 14%  
368 4% 11%  
369 1.3% 7%  
370 1.0% 5%  
371 2% 5%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.6% 1.4%  
375 0.3% 0.8%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.2% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.2% 99.7%  
329 0.3% 99.5%  
330 0.6% 99.2%  
331 0.7% 98.6%  
332 0.8% 98%  
333 1.1% 97%  
334 1.4% 96%  
335 2% 95%  
336 3% 93%  
337 4% 90%  
338 3% 87%  
339 4% 84%  
340 5% 80%  
341 5% 75%  
342 6% 70%  
343 9% 64%  
344 6% 56% Median
345 7% 50%  
346 6% 43%  
347 5% 37%  
348 4% 33%  
349 5% 29%  
350 6% 24%  
351 5% 18%  
352 3% 13%  
353 2% 9%  
354 1.4% 7%  
355 1.3% 5% Majority
356 1.1% 4%  
357 1.0% 3%  
358 0.7% 2%  
359 0.6% 1.4%  
360 0.3% 0.8%  
361 0.2% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.3% 99.6%  
324 0.4% 99.4%  
325 0.7% 99.0%  
326 2% 98%  
327 2% 97%  
328 3% 95%  
329 4% 92%  
330 3% 88%  
331 5% 85%  
332 3% 80%  
333 2% 77%  
334 2% 75%  
335 1.2% 73%  
336 1.3% 72%  
337 2% 71%  
338 4% 68%  
339 5% 64% Median
340 8% 59%  
341 10% 52%  
342 10% 42%  
343 10% 32%  
344 8% 22%  
345 5% 15%  
346 4% 9%  
347 2% 5%  
348 1.0% 3%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.5%  
353 0.3% 1.3%  
354 0.3% 1.0%  
355 0.2% 0.7% Majority
356 0.2% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 99.3%  
279 0.7% 98.9%  
280 0.9% 98%  
281 1.2% 97%  
282 2% 96%  
283 2% 94%  
284 4% 92%  
285 4% 88%  
286 7% 83%  
287 5% 76%  
288 8% 71%  
289 5% 63%  
290 8% 58% Median
291 5% 50%  
292 6% 44%  
293 5% 39%  
294 4% 33%  
295 3% 29%  
296 4% 25%  
297 3% 22%  
298 3% 19%  
299 3% 15%  
300 3% 13%  
301 2% 10%  
302 2% 8%  
303 2% 6%  
304 1.0% 4%  
305 1.1% 3%  
306 0.8% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.1%  
308 0.3% 0.7%  
309 0.2% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.6% 99.4%  
275 0.6% 98.8%  
276 0.9% 98%  
277 1.0% 97%  
278 2% 96%  
279 3% 94%  
280 2% 92%  
281 3% 90%  
282 4% 87%  
283 6% 83%  
284 6% 77%  
285 4% 71%  
286 7% 68%  
287 7% 60%  
288 7% 53% Median
289 5% 46%  
290 6% 41%  
291 6% 34%  
292 6% 29%  
293 4% 23%  
294 4% 19%  
295 4% 15%  
296 3% 12%  
297 2% 9%  
298 1.5% 7%  
299 2% 6%  
300 1.2% 4%  
301 0.7% 3%  
302 0.5% 2%  
303 0.5% 1.4%  
304 0.3% 0.9%  
305 0.2% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0.1% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.3% 99.7%  
271 0.6% 99.4%  
272 1.4% 98.8%  
273 2% 97%  
274 2% 95%  
275 4% 93%  
276 4% 89%  
277 4% 85%  
278 3% 81%  
279 2% 78%  
280 2% 76%  
281 1.1% 74%  
282 1.0% 73%  
283 1.4% 72%  
284 3% 70%  
285 5% 67%  
286 6% 63% Median
287 8% 56%  
288 10% 48%  
289 9% 38%  
290 9% 29%  
291 8% 20%  
292 4% 12%  
293 3% 8%  
294 1.4% 5%  
295 0.9% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.2% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.2% 1.5%  
300 0.3% 1.3%  
301 0.3% 1.0%  
302 0.2% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.5%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.7%  
199 0.3% 99.5%  
200 0.6% 99.2%  
201 0.6% 98.6%  
202 1.1% 98%  
203 1.3% 97%  
204 2% 96%  
205 2% 93%  
206 3% 91%  
207 4% 89%  
208 4% 85%  
209 4% 81%  
210 4% 77%  
211 6% 73%  
212 5% 67%  
213 8% 63%  
214 5% 54% Median
215 8% 49%  
216 6% 42%  
217 7% 36%  
218 6% 29%  
219 4% 23%  
220 5% 19%  
221 4% 14%  
222 3% 10%  
223 2% 8%  
224 1.5% 5%  
225 1.5% 4%  
226 0.8% 2%  
227 0.6% 2%  
228 0.3% 1.0%  
229 0.2% 0.7%  
230 0.2% 0.4%  
231 0.1% 0.2%  
232 0.1% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
170 0% 100%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.2% 99.7%  
175 0.2% 99.5%  
176 0.5% 99.2%  
177 0.6% 98.7%  
178 1.2% 98%  
179 1.4% 97%  
180 2% 95%  
181 3% 94%  
182 4% 91%  
183 4% 87%  
184 4% 83%  
185 6% 79%  
186 8% 73%  
187 6% 66%  
188 8% 59% Median
189 6% 52%  
190 7% 45%  
191 9% 38%  
192 7% 29%  
193 5% 22%  
194 4% 17%  
195 3% 14%  
196 3% 10%  
197 3% 7%  
198 1.4% 4%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.7% 2%  
201 0.6% 1.2%  
202 0.3% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.3%  
204 0.1% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations