Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–24 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.6–24.5% 21.2–24.9% 20.9–25.3% 20.3–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.3% 19.0–21.7% 18.6–22.1% 18.3–22.5% 17.7–23.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.7% 4.1–5.5% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 163–184 159–187 157–190 152–195
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 153 143–163 140–166 138–169 133–174
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 129 119–138 117–141 116–143 109–147
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–83 66–85 65–88 61–92
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 76 68–84 66–85 64–88 61–92
Die Linke 69 68 61–75 59–77 57–79 54–83
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 30–41 29–43 28–45 26–47

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.4%  
154 0.4% 99.2%  
155 0.3% 98.8%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 0.8% 97%  
159 2% 96%  
160 1.1% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 92%  
163 3% 91%  
164 3% 88%  
165 3% 85%  
166 4% 83%  
167 3% 79%  
168 4% 76%  
169 4% 71%  
170 5% 67%  
171 5% 62%  
172 3% 58%  
173 6% 54% Median
174 4% 48%  
175 5% 44%  
176 4% 39%  
177 5% 35%  
178 4% 29%  
179 3% 25%  
180 4% 22%  
181 3% 19%  
182 3% 16%  
183 2% 13%  
184 1.4% 11%  
185 2% 9%  
186 1.0% 7%  
187 2% 6%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.7% 3%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.5% 1.5%  
193 0.2% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.3%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.2% 99.7%  
134 0.3% 99.5%  
135 0.4% 99.2%  
136 0.4% 98.7%  
137 0.6% 98%  
138 1.1% 98%  
139 1.0% 97%  
140 1.3% 96%  
141 1.2% 94%  
142 2% 93%  
143 2% 91%  
144 3% 89%  
145 3% 86%  
146 5% 83%  
147 4% 78%  
148 4% 74%  
149 5% 70%  
150 5% 65%  
151 5% 60%  
152 4% 55%  
153 6% 52% Median
154 4% 46%  
155 5% 42%  
156 5% 37%  
157 5% 32%  
158 4% 27%  
159 3% 23%  
160 4% 19%  
161 2% 15%  
162 2% 13%  
163 2% 11%  
164 2% 9%  
165 1.1% 7%  
166 1.3% 6%  
167 1.0% 5%  
168 0.8% 4%  
169 0.7% 3%  
170 0.6% 2%  
171 0.4% 1.4%  
172 0.2% 1.0%  
173 0.2% 0.7%  
174 0.2% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.4%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.2%  
111 0.3% 99.1%  
112 0.2% 98.8%  
113 0.1% 98.6%  
114 0.4% 98%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 1.5% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 2% 93%  
119 7% 91%  
120 4% 84%  
121 3% 79%  
122 4% 76%  
123 1.0% 72%  
124 2% 71%  
125 2% 69%  
126 1.0% 68%  
127 6% 67%  
128 6% 60%  
129 8% 54% Median
130 15% 46%  
131 4% 31%  
132 8% 27%  
133 3% 19%  
134 0.9% 16%  
135 1.3% 15%  
136 0.4% 14%  
137 0.7% 13%  
138 3% 13%  
139 0.7% 10%  
140 3% 9%  
141 2% 6%  
142 0.9% 4%  
143 2% 3%  
144 0.2% 1.1%  
145 0.2% 0.8%  
146 0.1% 0.6%  
147 0% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0% 0.3%  
151 0.2% 0.3%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.5% 99.0%  
64 1.0% 98.5%  
65 1.5% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 3% 92%  
69 4% 89%  
70 4% 85%  
71 6% 81%  
72 5% 75%  
73 7% 70%  
74 8% 63%  
75 7% 55% Median
76 6% 48%  
77 6% 42%  
78 6% 36%  
79 4% 30%  
80 5% 26%  
81 4% 21%  
82 4% 17%  
83 3% 13%  
84 2% 10%  
85 3% 8%  
86 1.3% 5%  
87 1.0% 4%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.1%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.5% 99.1%  
64 1.3% 98.5%  
65 1.0% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 2% 95%  
68 4% 92%  
69 4% 88%  
70 4% 85%  
71 6% 81%  
72 6% 75%  
73 6% 69%  
74 6% 64%  
75 7% 58%  
76 8% 52% Median
77 6% 44%  
78 5% 38%  
79 5% 32%  
80 6% 27% Last Result
81 5% 21%  
82 3% 16%  
83 3% 13%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.2% 5%  
87 0.8% 3%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 99.0%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 1.5% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 2% 93%  
61 3% 91%  
62 4% 87%  
63 5% 83%  
64 6% 78%  
65 7% 72%  
66 7% 65%  
67 7% 58%  
68 6% 51% Median
69 7% 45% Last Result
70 5% 37%  
71 6% 32%  
72 5% 26%  
73 4% 21%  
74 4% 16%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.8%  
26 0.5% 99.6%  
27 0.9% 99.1%  
28 1.4% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 94%  
31 5% 90%  
32 7% 85%  
33 8% 78%  
34 9% 70%  
35 9% 61%  
36 8% 52% Median
37 11% 43%  
38 8% 32%  
39 7% 24%  
40 5% 18%  
41 3% 13%  
42 3% 9%  
43 2% 6%  
44 1.2% 4%  
45 1.2% 3%  
46 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
47 0.3% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 490 100% 479–501 475–504 472–507 466–512
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 438 100% 425–449 422–453 419–455 413–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 393 100% 380–405 377–408 373–411 368–416
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 377 99.0% 365–389 361–393 358–395 352–401
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 369 93% 357–382 353–385 350–388 344–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 76% 349–374 346–377 344–381 337–387
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 340 7% 327–352 324–356 321–359 315–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 316 0% 304–329 301–332 298–335 292–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 301 0% 289–313 285–317 283–320 277–326
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 265 0% 252–276 249–280 246–283 241–288
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 264 0% 252–276 249–280 246–282 241–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 204 0% 192–215 190–218 187–221 181–226
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 196 0% 185–207 182–210 179–213 174–218

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
460 0% 100%  
461 0% 99.9%  
462 0% 99.9%  
463 0% 99.9%  
464 0.1% 99.8%  
465 0.1% 99.7%  
466 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.5%  
468 0.2% 99.4%  
469 0.3% 99.2%  
470 0.3% 98.9%  
471 0.4% 98.6%  
472 0.7% 98%  
473 1.0% 97%  
474 1.2% 96%  
475 1.2% 95%  
476 1.3% 94%  
477 2% 93%  
478 1.1% 91%  
479 2% 90%  
480 2% 88%  
481 3% 86%  
482 3% 83%  
483 4% 80%  
484 6% 76%  
485 4% 71%  
486 4% 67%  
487 4% 64%  
488 4% 60%  
489 4% 56%  
490 4% 52%  
491 5% 48% Median
492 5% 43%  
493 5% 38%  
494 4% 32%  
495 3% 28%  
496 3% 25%  
497 3% 22%  
498 2% 19%  
499 3% 17%  
500 2% 14%  
501 2% 12%  
502 2% 10%  
503 2% 7%  
504 1.3% 6%  
505 0.8% 4%  
506 1.0% 4%  
507 0.5% 3%  
508 0.5% 2%  
509 0.3% 2%  
510 0.4% 1.3%  
511 0.2% 0.9%  
512 0.2% 0.7%  
513 0.1% 0.4%  
514 0.1% 0.3%  
515 0.1% 0.2%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.6%  
414 0.2% 99.5%  
415 0.3% 99.3%  
416 0.3% 99.0%  
417 0.5% 98.7%  
418 0.4% 98%  
419 0.5% 98%  
420 1.0% 97%  
421 0.7% 96%  
422 1.1% 96%  
423 1.0% 94%  
424 2% 94%  
425 2% 91%  
426 2% 90%  
427 3% 88%  
428 2% 85%  
429 4% 83%  
430 3% 80%  
431 3% 77%  
432 4% 74%  
433 3% 71%  
434 5% 68%  
435 3% 63%  
436 5% 60%  
437 3% 55%  
438 5% 51% Median
439 5% 46%  
440 5% 41%  
441 4% 37%  
442 3% 33%  
443 4% 30%  
444 4% 26%  
445 3% 23%  
446 3% 19%  
447 2% 16%  
448 3% 14%  
449 2% 12%  
450 2% 10%  
451 1.4% 8%  
452 1.0% 7%  
453 1.2% 6%  
454 0.9% 4%  
455 1.0% 3%  
456 0.5% 2%  
457 0.4% 2%  
458 0.4% 2%  
459 0.4% 1.2%  
460 0.2% 0.8%  
461 0.2% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.6%  
369 0.3% 99.4%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.3% 98.8%  
372 0.5% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 0.5% 97%  
375 0.8% 97%  
376 0.7% 96%  
377 2% 95%  
378 1.4% 94%  
379 1.3% 92%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 89%  
382 2% 87%  
383 2% 85%  
384 3% 83%  
385 3% 79%  
386 3% 77%  
387 4% 73%  
388 4% 69%  
389 3% 65%  
390 3% 62%  
391 5% 59%  
392 3% 53%  
393 4% 50%  
394 6% 47% Median
395 4% 40%  
396 4% 36%  
397 4% 32%  
398 3% 28%  
399 3% 25%  
400 3% 22%  
401 2% 20%  
402 4% 18%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 2% 10%  
406 1.3% 8%  
407 1.1% 7%  
408 1.1% 6%  
409 1.2% 5%  
410 0.6% 3%  
411 0.5% 3%  
412 0.7% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.3%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.3% 0.8%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.2% 99.2%  
355 0.2% 99.0% Majority
356 0.5% 98.7%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.9% 97%  
360 0.9% 96%  
361 1.4% 95%  
362 1.1% 94%  
363 1.0% 93%  
364 1.5% 92%  
365 2% 91%  
366 2% 89%  
367 3% 87%  
368 3% 83%  
369 3% 81%  
370 3% 78%  
371 3% 75%  
372 3% 72%  
373 5% 69%  
374 4% 64%  
375 4% 60%  
376 5% 56%  
377 3% 51%  
378 3% 47% Median
379 3% 44%  
380 4% 41%  
381 4% 36%  
382 6% 32%  
383 2% 27%  
384 3% 25%  
385 3% 22%  
386 3% 19%  
387 3% 16%  
388 2% 13%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 0.9% 7%  
392 1.0% 6%  
393 1.4% 5%  
394 0.8% 4%  
395 0.7% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.5%  
399 0.3% 1.2%  
400 0.2% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.2% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.2% 99.3%  
347 0.4% 99.1%  
348 0.2% 98.7%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.6% 97%  
352 1.0% 97%  
353 0.9% 96%  
354 2% 95%  
355 1.4% 93% Majority
356 1.4% 92%  
357 2% 90%  
358 2% 89%  
359 3% 87%  
360 2% 84%  
361 3% 82%  
362 3% 78%  
363 3% 75%  
364 4% 72%  
365 4% 68%  
366 4% 64%  
367 3% 61%  
368 5% 58%  
369 4% 53%  
370 6% 49% Median
371 4% 44%  
372 4% 40%  
373 3% 35%  
374 4% 32%  
375 4% 28%  
376 3% 24%  
377 2% 21%  
378 3% 19%  
379 2% 16%  
380 2% 14%  
381 2% 12%  
382 2% 10%  
383 2% 8%  
384 1.0% 6%  
385 1.2% 5%  
386 0.8% 4%  
387 0.6% 3%  
388 0.5% 3%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.3%  
392 0.3% 1.0%  
393 0.2% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.3% 99.5%  
339 0.4% 99.2%  
340 0.3% 98.8%  
341 0.3% 98.6%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.4% 98%  
344 0.7% 98%  
345 1.4% 97%  
346 2% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 1.3% 92%  
349 1.2% 91%  
350 1.1% 90%  
351 2% 89%  
352 2% 87%  
353 4% 85%  
354 4% 81%  
355 4% 76% Majority
356 3% 72%  
357 2% 69%  
358 2% 67%  
359 3% 65%  
360 5% 62%  
361 6% 57%  
362 7% 51% Median
363 3% 44%  
364 3% 41%  
365 3% 38%  
366 3% 35%  
367 4% 32%  
368 4% 28%  
369 3% 25%  
370 3% 21%  
371 3% 18%  
372 2% 16%  
373 3% 14%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 10%  
376 2% 8%  
377 2% 6%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.6% 4%  
380 0.6% 3%  
381 0.5% 3%  
382 0.8% 2%  
383 0.4% 1.3%  
384 0.2% 1.0%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.2% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.3%  
318 0.3% 99.0%  
319 0.3% 98.7%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 0.5% 98%  
322 0.6% 97%  
323 0.8% 97%  
324 1.2% 96%  
325 1.0% 95%  
326 2% 94%  
327 2% 92%  
328 2% 90%  
329 2% 88%  
330 2% 86%  
331 3% 84%  
332 2% 81%  
333 3% 79%  
334 4% 76%  
335 4% 72%  
336 3% 68%  
337 4% 65%  
338 4% 60%  
339 6% 56%  
340 4% 51% Median
341 5% 47%  
342 3% 42%  
343 4% 39%  
344 4% 36%  
345 4% 32%  
346 3% 28%  
347 3% 25%  
348 3% 22%  
349 2% 18%  
350 3% 16%  
351 2% 13%  
352 2% 11%  
353 1.4% 10%  
354 1.4% 8%  
355 2% 7% Majority
356 0.9% 5%  
357 1.0% 4%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.4% 1.3%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.3% 99.1%  
296 0.4% 98.8%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.6% 98%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 0.9% 96%  
301 0.8% 96%  
302 2% 95%  
303 1.4% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 2% 90%  
306 3% 88%  
307 2% 85%  
308 2% 83%  
309 3% 81%  
310 4% 77%  
311 3% 73%  
312 4% 70%  
313 4% 66%  
314 4% 62%  
315 3% 58%  
316 5% 55%  
317 4% 49%  
318 3% 46% Median
319 4% 42%  
320 4% 38%  
321 3% 34%  
322 5% 31%  
323 3% 26%  
324 3% 23%  
325 2% 20%  
326 3% 18%  
327 2% 15%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.4% 7%  
332 1.0% 6%  
333 1.2% 5%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.4%  
339 0.3% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.4% 99.2%  
280 0.2% 98.8%  
281 0.6% 98.6%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 0.8% 97%  
285 1.0% 96%  
286 1.3% 95%  
287 1.4% 94%  
288 1.3% 92%  
289 2% 91%  
290 2% 89%  
291 2% 87%  
292 2% 85%  
293 3% 82%  
294 3% 79%  
295 3% 76%  
296 3% 73%  
297 4% 70%  
298 4% 65%  
299 4% 61%  
300 4% 57%  
301 4% 53%  
302 5% 49% Median
303 3% 44%  
304 4% 42%  
305 7% 38%  
306 2% 31%  
307 3% 28%  
308 3% 25%  
309 4% 22%  
310 3% 18%  
311 2% 15%  
312 3% 14%  
313 2% 11%  
314 1.3% 9%  
315 1.3% 8%  
316 0.8% 7%  
317 2% 6%  
318 0.7% 4%  
319 0.9% 3%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.3%  
324 0.3% 1.0%  
325 0.2% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.3% 99.4%  
243 0.3% 99.1%  
244 0.4% 98.8%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.5% 98%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 1.1% 96%  
249 1.0% 95%  
250 1.1% 94%  
251 2% 93%  
252 2% 92%  
253 2% 90%  
254 2% 88%  
255 3% 85%  
256 4% 83%  
257 2% 79%  
258 3% 77%  
259 3% 73%  
260 3% 70%  
261 5% 67%  
262 3% 62%  
263 4% 59%  
264 5% 56%  
265 5% 50% Median
266 5% 46%  
267 5% 40%  
268 3% 35%  
269 4% 32%  
270 4% 28%  
271 3% 24%  
272 3% 21%  
273 1.4% 18%  
274 3% 17%  
275 2% 13%  
276 1.4% 11%  
277 2% 10%  
278 1.1% 8%  
279 1.4% 7%  
280 1.1% 5%  
281 0.9% 4%  
282 0.6% 3%  
283 0.6% 3%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.2% 1.4%  
286 0.2% 1.2%  
287 0.3% 1.0%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.3%  
243 0.2% 99.1%  
244 0.5% 98.9%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.7% 98%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 0.7% 97%  
249 1.3% 96%  
250 1.4% 95%  
251 2% 93%  
252 2% 91%  
253 2% 90%  
254 2% 88%  
255 3% 86%  
256 4% 83%  
257 3% 79%  
258 3% 76%  
259 4% 73%  
260 4% 69%  
261 3% 65%  
262 5% 62%  
263 3% 57%  
264 5% 53% Median
265 4% 48%  
266 4% 44%  
267 4% 40%  
268 3% 36%  
269 4% 32%  
270 2% 28%  
271 3% 25%  
272 4% 22%  
273 3% 18%  
274 2% 15%  
275 2% 13%  
276 2% 11%  
277 2% 9%  
278 1.4% 8%  
279 1.3% 6%  
280 0.9% 5%  
281 0.9% 4%  
282 0.8% 3%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.5%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.1% 0.8%  
288 0.2% 0.7%  
289 0.2% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
176 0% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.1% 99.5%  
183 0.2% 99.4%  
184 0.2% 99.1%  
185 0.3% 98.9%  
186 0.6% 98.6%  
187 0.7% 98%  
188 0.8% 97%  
189 1.4% 97%  
190 2% 95%  
191 2% 94%  
192 2% 92%  
193 2% 90%  
194 3% 87%  
195 3% 84%  
196 3% 81%  
197 3% 78%  
198 4% 75%  
199 3% 72%  
200 4% 69%  
201 3% 65%  
202 4% 62%  
203 5% 58%  
204 6% 53%  
205 3% 46% Median
206 5% 43%  
207 6% 39%  
208 4% 33%  
209 5% 29%  
210 4% 24%  
211 3% 20%  
212 2% 17%  
213 2% 15%  
214 2% 13%  
215 2% 11%  
216 2% 9%  
217 1.0% 7%  
218 1.2% 6%  
219 1.2% 5%  
220 0.9% 4%  
221 0.8% 3%  
222 0.4% 2%  
223 0.5% 2%  
224 0.3% 1.2%  
225 0.3% 0.9%  
226 0.2% 0.7%  
227 0.1% 0.5%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1% Last Result
234 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.9%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.2% 99.5%  
176 0.3% 99.3%  
177 0.4% 99.0%  
178 0.6% 98.6%  
179 0.7% 98%  
180 0.8% 97%  
181 1.2% 97%  
182 1.3% 95%  
183 1.4% 94%  
184 1.4% 93%  
185 2% 91%  
186 2% 89%  
187 3% 87%  
188 4% 84%  
189 3% 80%  
190 3% 76%  
191 4% 73%  
192 4% 69%  
193 4% 65%  
194 5% 61%  
195 6% 57%  
196 4% 51%  
197 5% 47% Median
198 4% 41%  
199 4% 37%  
200 3% 33%  
201 4% 30%  
202 3% 25%  
203 4% 22%  
204 3% 18%  
205 2% 15%  
206 2% 13%  
207 2% 11%  
208 1.3% 9%  
209 1.5% 8%  
210 1.3% 6%  
211 1.1% 5%  
212 0.9% 4%  
213 0.6% 3%  
214 0.6% 2%  
215 0.4% 2%  
216 0.3% 1.2%  
217 0.3% 1.0%  
218 0.2% 0.7%  
219 0.1% 0.5%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations