Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 26–29 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.1–23.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 19.0% 18.1–19.9% 17.8–20.2% 17.6–20.4% 17.2–20.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 17.1–18.9% 16.9–19.2% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.1% 9.6–12.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.5% 9.4–11.6% 9.1–12.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 152–166 150–168 148–170 145–173
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 144 137–151 135–153 134–155 131–158
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 136 130–143 128–145 127–147 123–150
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 78–89 77–90 75–92 73–95
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 79 74–85 73–87 72–88 70–91
Die Linke 69 52 48–58 48–58 46–61 45–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 49–58 47–59 47–60 45–63

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.4% 99.4%  
147 0.6% 99.0%  
148 0.9% 98%  
149 1.2% 97%  
150 2% 96%  
151 2% 94%  
152 3% 92%  
153 4% 89%  
154 6% 85%  
155 5% 79%  
156 6% 74%  
157 6% 68%  
158 7% 62%  
159 8% 55% Median
160 7% 47%  
161 6% 41%  
162 6% 34%  
163 7% 28%  
164 5% 21%  
165 4% 16%  
166 3% 12%  
167 2% 9%  
168 2% 7%  
169 1.4% 5%  
170 1.2% 4%  
171 0.8% 2%  
172 0.6% 1.5%  
173 0.4% 0.9%  
174 0.2% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.2% 99.7%  
131 0.4% 99.5%  
132 0.7% 99.2%  
133 1.0% 98.5%  
134 1.2% 98%  
135 2% 96%  
136 2% 95%  
137 4% 92%  
138 4% 89%  
139 5% 85%  
140 6% 80%  
141 6% 74%  
142 7% 68%  
143 9% 61%  
144 6% 53% Median
145 8% 47%  
146 7% 38%  
147 6% 32%  
148 5% 25%  
149 4% 20%  
150 5% 16%  
151 3% 11%  
152 3% 8%  
153 2% 6%  
154 1.0% 4%  
155 1.1% 3%  
156 0.6% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.1%  
158 0.3% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.5% 99.5%  
125 0.5% 99.0%  
126 0.9% 98%  
127 2% 98%  
128 1.5% 96%  
129 3% 94%  
130 3% 91%  
131 3% 88%  
132 6% 84%  
133 6% 78%  
134 7% 73%  
135 7% 66%  
136 10% 59% Median
137 6% 49%  
138 8% 43%  
139 8% 36%  
140 4% 27%  
141 8% 24%  
142 4% 16%  
143 3% 12%  
144 3% 9%  
145 2% 6%  
146 1.4% 4%  
147 1.0% 3%  
148 0.8% 2%  
149 0.5% 1.3%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.2% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.6% 99.2%  
75 1.2% 98.6%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 5% 91%  
79 5% 86%  
80 6% 81%  
81 7% 75%  
82 9% 68%  
83 12% 60% Median
84 11% 47%  
85 8% 36%  
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 5% 18%  
89 4% 13%  
90 4% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.6% 99.5%  
71 1.4% 98.9%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 93%  
75 3% 89%  
76 9% 86%  
77 9% 77%  
78 6% 68%  
79 13% 62% Median
80 9% 49% Last Result
81 6% 41%  
82 13% 35%  
83 4% 22%  
84 5% 18%  
85 6% 13%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0% 99.8%  
45 1.5% 99.8%  
46 1.4% 98%  
47 0.1% 97%  
48 8% 97%  
49 7% 89%  
50 0.2% 82%  
51 12% 82%  
52 20% 69% Median
53 0.4% 49%  
54 11% 49%  
55 19% 37%  
56 0.6% 18%  
57 4% 18%  
58 10% 14%  
59 0.4% 4%  
60 0.6% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.6%  
46 1.4% 98.9% Last Result
47 3% 98%  
48 4% 95%  
49 4% 91%  
50 10% 87%  
51 13% 77%  
52 12% 64%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 10% 44%  
55 9% 34%  
56 8% 25%  
57 5% 17%  
58 4% 11%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 493 100% 485–501 483–503 481–505 477–508
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 436 100% 428–444 425–447 423–449 419–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 413 100% 405–422 402–424 401–426 397–430
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 376 99.9% 367–384 364–386 362–389 358–393
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 360 81% 352–369 349–371 347–373 343–377
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 356 64% 348–365 346–367 343–369 339–373
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 349 19% 340–357 338–360 336–362 332–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 334 0.1% 325–342 322–345 321–346 317–351
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 296 0% 287–304 285–306 283–309 279–313
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 280 0% 272–289 270–292 268–293 264–297
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 269–285 266–288 264–289 260–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 216 0% 208–224 206–226 204–228 201–232
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 182–197 180–199 178–201 175–205

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 99.9%  
474 0.1% 99.9%  
475 0.1% 99.8%  
476 0.2% 99.7%  
477 0.2% 99.5%  
478 0.4% 99.4%  
479 0.4% 99.0%  
480 0.9% 98.5%  
481 0.9% 98%  
482 1.3% 97%  
483 2% 96%  
484 3% 94%  
485 2% 91%  
486 4% 89%  
487 3% 85%  
488 5% 82%  
489 4% 77%  
490 6% 73%  
491 5% 66%  
492 8% 61% Median
493 7% 53%  
494 6% 46%  
495 8% 40%  
496 4% 32%  
497 5% 28%  
498 4% 23%  
499 5% 18%  
500 2% 13%  
501 3% 10%  
502 2% 7%  
503 2% 5%  
504 1.0% 4%  
505 1.1% 3%  
506 0.3% 2%  
507 0.6% 1.3%  
508 0.2% 0.7%  
509 0.2% 0.5%  
510 0.1% 0.3%  
511 0.1% 0.2%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.2% 99.6%  
420 0.3% 99.5%  
421 0.4% 99.2%  
422 0.8% 98.8%  
423 0.8% 98%  
424 2% 97%  
425 0.9% 96%  
426 2% 95%  
427 3% 93%  
428 3% 90%  
429 4% 88%  
430 4% 84%  
431 4% 80%  
432 5% 76%  
433 6% 71%  
434 6% 65%  
435 5% 59% Median
436 8% 54%  
437 5% 46%  
438 8% 41%  
439 5% 34%  
440 5% 29%  
441 5% 24%  
442 3% 19%  
443 4% 16%  
444 3% 12%  
445 2% 9%  
446 2% 7%  
447 1.4% 5%  
448 1.0% 4%  
449 0.9% 3%  
450 0.6% 2%  
451 0.5% 1.2%  
452 0.3% 0.7%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0.1% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.8%  
396 0.1% 99.7%  
397 0.3% 99.6%  
398 0.4% 99.3%  
399 0.6% 98.9%  
400 0.8% 98%  
401 1.2% 98%  
402 2% 96%  
403 1.0% 94%  
404 2% 93%  
405 3% 91%  
406 2% 88%  
407 3% 86%  
408 5% 83%  
409 6% 78%  
410 5% 72%  
411 6% 67%  
412 7% 61% Median
413 6% 53%  
414 6% 48%  
415 6% 42%  
416 4% 36%  
417 4% 32%  
418 5% 28%  
419 4% 23%  
420 5% 19%  
421 4% 14%  
422 3% 10%  
423 2% 7%  
424 1.2% 5%  
425 0.9% 4%  
426 0.8% 3%  
427 0.7% 2%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.4% 1.1%  
430 0.3% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.3% 99.7%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.2%  
361 0.8% 98.9%  
362 0.9% 98%  
363 0.5% 97%  
364 2% 97%  
365 2% 95%  
366 1.4% 92%  
367 2% 91%  
368 5% 89%  
369 4% 84%  
370 2% 80%  
371 5% 78%  
372 6% 73%  
373 6% 67%  
374 3% 61% Median
375 7% 58%  
376 8% 51%  
377 4% 43%  
378 6% 39%  
379 6% 33%  
380 5% 27%  
381 3% 22%  
382 5% 19%  
383 4% 14%  
384 2% 10%  
385 2% 9%  
386 2% 6%  
387 1.4% 5%  
388 0.5% 3%  
389 0.8% 3%  
390 0.8% 2%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.2% 0.7%  
393 0.2% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0.2% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.3% 99.4%  
345 0.4% 99.1%  
346 0.6% 98.6%  
347 0.7% 98%  
348 1.1% 97%  
349 2% 96%  
350 2% 95%  
351 2% 93%  
352 4% 91%  
353 2% 87%  
354 3% 85%  
355 6% 81% Majority
356 5% 76%  
357 4% 70%  
358 8% 67%  
359 5% 58% Median
360 5% 53%  
361 8% 48%  
362 5% 40%  
363 4% 36%  
364 8% 32%  
365 3% 24%  
366 3% 20%  
367 4% 17%  
368 3% 13%  
369 2% 10%  
370 2% 8%  
371 2% 6%  
372 0.9% 4%  
373 1.1% 3%  
374 0.8% 2%  
375 0.3% 1.4%  
376 0.4% 1.1%  
377 0.3% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.4% 99.4%  
341 0.5% 99.0%  
342 0.5% 98%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 1.0% 97%  
345 1.1% 96%  
346 1.3% 95%  
347 3% 94%  
348 3% 91%  
349 5% 88%  
350 3% 83%  
351 4% 80%  
352 5% 76%  
353 4% 71%  
354 3% 67%  
355 6% 64% Majority
356 10% 58% Median
357 7% 48%  
358 4% 40%  
359 6% 37%  
360 6% 31%  
361 4% 25%  
362 4% 21%  
363 3% 17%  
364 4% 14%  
365 2% 11%  
366 2% 8%  
367 2% 7%  
368 2% 5%  
369 1.0% 3%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.4% 1.4%  
372 0.4% 1.1%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.3% 99.6%  
333 0.4% 99.3%  
334 0.3% 98.9%  
335 0.8% 98.6%  
336 1.1% 98%  
337 0.9% 97%  
338 2% 96%  
339 2% 94%  
340 2% 92%  
341 3% 90%  
342 4% 87%  
343 3% 83%  
344 3% 80%  
345 8% 76%  
346 4% 68%  
347 5% 64% Median
348 8% 60%  
349 5% 52%  
350 5% 47%  
351 8% 42%  
352 4% 33%  
353 5% 30%  
354 6% 24%  
355 3% 19% Majority
356 2% 15%  
357 4% 13%  
358 2% 9%  
359 2% 7%  
360 2% 5%  
361 1.1% 4%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.4%  
365 0.3% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.2% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.7% 99.1%  
320 0.8% 98%  
321 1.1% 98%  
322 2% 96%  
323 1.0% 95%  
324 2% 94%  
325 2% 92%  
326 3% 89%  
327 3% 86%  
328 3% 84%  
329 5% 80%  
330 7% 75%  
331 8% 68%  
332 4% 60%  
333 6% 56% Median
334 4% 50%  
335 8% 46%  
336 4% 38%  
337 7% 34%  
338 4% 27%  
339 4% 24%  
340 4% 20%  
341 4% 16%  
342 3% 12%  
343 2% 8%  
344 1.4% 7%  
345 2% 5%  
346 1.0% 3%  
347 0.6% 2%  
348 0.7% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.1%  
350 0.2% 0.8%  
351 0.2% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.6% 99.4%  
281 0.4% 98.9%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 1.4% 98%  
284 1.1% 97%  
285 1.1% 96%  
286 3% 95%  
287 2% 91%  
288 2% 89%  
289 3% 87%  
290 5% 84%  
291 4% 79%  
292 5% 75%  
293 7% 70%  
294 6% 63%  
295 3% 57% Median
296 7% 54%  
297 6% 47%  
298 5% 40%  
299 8% 36%  
300 6% 28%  
301 2% 21%  
302 5% 20%  
303 4% 15%  
304 2% 11%  
305 2% 9%  
306 2% 7%  
307 1.5% 5%  
308 0.7% 3%  
309 0.9% 3%  
310 0.7% 2%  
311 0.2% 1.1%  
312 0.4% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0.1% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.3% 99.7%  
265 0.6% 99.3%  
266 0.5% 98.7%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.9% 98%  
269 0.9% 97%  
270 1.4% 96%  
271 2% 95%  
272 5% 92%  
273 3% 87%  
274 3% 85%  
275 3% 82%  
276 4% 78%  
277 4% 74%  
278 9% 71%  
279 9% 62%  
280 5% 53% Median
281 5% 48%  
282 6% 43%  
283 4% 37%  
284 4% 33%  
285 7% 29%  
286 6% 22%  
287 2% 16%  
288 2% 14%  
289 3% 11%  
290 2% 8%  
291 1.2% 6%  
292 2% 5%  
293 1.3% 3%  
294 0.4% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.1%  
297 0.2% 0.7%  
298 0.1% 0.5%  
299 0.2% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.3% 99.4%  
262 0.4% 99.1%  
263 0.7% 98.7%  
264 0.9% 98%  
265 0.9% 97%  
266 2% 96%  
267 2% 95%  
268 3% 93%  
269 3% 90%  
270 3% 87%  
271 4% 84%  
272 5% 80%  
273 6% 75%  
274 6% 68%  
275 4% 63%  
276 8% 58% Median
277 6% 50%  
278 4% 44%  
279 6% 40%  
280 6% 34%  
281 5% 28%  
282 4% 23%  
283 4% 19%  
284 3% 15%  
285 3% 12%  
286 2% 9%  
287 1.3% 7%  
288 2% 5%  
289 1.1% 4%  
290 0.6% 2%  
291 0.6% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.3%  
293 0.4% 0.8%  
294 0.2% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.2% 99.7%  
201 0.3% 99.5%  
202 0.5% 99.2%  
203 0.6% 98.8%  
204 0.8% 98%  
205 1.2% 97%  
206 2% 96%  
207 2% 94%  
208 3% 93%  
209 3% 90%  
210 4% 87%  
211 5% 83%  
212 6% 78%  
213 3% 71%  
214 6% 68%  
215 7% 62% Median
216 7% 55%  
217 6% 48%  
218 8% 42%  
219 4% 34%  
220 6% 30%  
221 5% 24%  
222 4% 19%  
223 3% 15%  
224 3% 12%  
225 3% 9%  
226 2% 6%  
227 1.3% 5%  
228 0.9% 3%  
229 0.8% 2%  
230 0.6% 2%  
231 0.4% 1.1%  
232 0.2% 0.7%  
233 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0.1% 99.9%  
173 0.1% 99.8%  
174 0.1% 99.7%  
175 0.3% 99.6%  
176 0.4% 99.3%  
177 0.5% 98.9%  
178 1.3% 98%  
179 1.4% 97%  
180 2% 96%  
181 3% 94%  
182 3% 92%  
183 3% 89%  
184 5% 86%  
185 4% 81%  
186 5% 77%  
187 7% 72%  
188 7% 65% Median
189 7% 58%  
190 7% 51%  
191 7% 44%  
192 6% 37%  
193 7% 30%  
194 3% 24%  
195 4% 20%  
196 4% 16%  
197 3% 12%  
198 2% 10%  
199 2% 7%  
200 2% 5%  
201 1.2% 3%  
202 0.8% 2%  
203 0.5% 1.4%  
204 0.3% 0.9%  
205 0.3% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0.1% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations