Opinion Poll by YouGov, 25–29 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.2–23.8% 19.7–24.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.9–22.2% 19.5–22.5% 19.3–22.8% 18.7–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 166 157–175 154–177 152–180 148–184
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 149–167 147–169 145–172 141–176
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 120–136 118–138 117–140 113–144
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–90 75–92 73–93 70–97
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 75 69–82 67–84 66–85 63–89
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–43 32–45 32–46 30–48

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.7%  
149 0.4% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.0%  
151 0.4% 98.7%  
152 0.9% 98%  
153 2% 97%  
154 1.4% 96%  
155 1.4% 94%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 91%  
158 4% 88%  
159 5% 85%  
160 4% 80%  
161 3% 76%  
162 3% 73%  
163 6% 70%  
164 7% 64%  
165 6% 57%  
166 5% 51% Median
167 4% 46%  
168 6% 41%  
169 8% 36%  
170 6% 28%  
171 3% 22%  
172 2% 19%  
173 4% 17%  
174 3% 13%  
175 3% 10%  
176 2% 8%  
177 0.9% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 0.9% 3%  
180 0.6% 3%  
181 0.8% 2%  
182 0.4% 1.1%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.2% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.4% 99.4%  
143 0.4% 99.1%  
144 0.7% 98.6%  
145 0.9% 98%  
146 1.4% 97%  
147 2% 96%  
148 2% 94%  
149 3% 92%  
150 3% 90%  
151 4% 87%  
152 4% 83%  
153 4% 79%  
154 5% 75%  
155 5% 69%  
156 6% 64%  
157 6% 59%  
158 6% 53% Median
159 6% 47%  
160 5% 40%  
161 5% 35%  
162 4% 30%  
163 5% 25%  
164 4% 20%  
165 4% 17%  
166 3% 13%  
167 3% 11%  
168 2% 8%  
169 2% 6%  
170 1.3% 5%  
171 0.9% 3%  
172 0.8% 3%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.4% 1.2%  
175 0.4% 0.9%  
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.4% 99.3%  
115 0.4% 98.8%  
116 0.9% 98%  
117 2% 98%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 94%  
120 2% 91%  
121 4% 89%  
122 4% 85%  
123 3% 82%  
124 3% 79%  
125 5% 76%  
126 7% 71%  
127 9% 64%  
128 7% 56% Median
129 8% 49%  
130 6% 41%  
131 7% 35%  
132 6% 28%  
133 3% 22%  
134 2% 19%  
135 3% 16%  
136 4% 13%  
137 3% 10%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.3% 5%  
140 1.4% 4%  
141 0.9% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.4%  
143 0.2% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 0.7% 99.0%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 93%  
77 4% 90%  
78 6% 86%  
79 6% 80%  
80 7% 75%  
81 7% 67%  
82 7% 60%  
83 7% 53% Median
84 9% 46%  
85 7% 38%  
86 6% 31%  
87 6% 25%  
88 4% 19%  
89 4% 15%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.4% 4%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.2% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 98.8%  
66 1.5% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 3% 87%  
71 9% 84%  
72 5% 76%  
73 8% 71%  
74 8% 63%  
75 9% 55% Median
76 7% 46%  
77 6% 39%  
78 9% 33%  
79 4% 24%  
80 6% 21% Last Result
81 4% 15%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.7% 99.5%  
51 1.0% 98.8%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 5% 91%  
56 7% 85%  
57 6% 78%  
58 8% 72%  
59 9% 64%  
60 8% 55% Median
61 9% 47%  
62 8% 38%  
63 7% 30%  
64 6% 23%  
65 5% 17%  
66 3% 12%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.1% 4% Last Result
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 3% 98%  
33 3% 94%  
34 3% 91%  
35 6% 88%  
36 12% 82%  
37 13% 69%  
38 11% 56% Median
39 7% 46%  
40 7% 39%  
41 11% 32%  
42 10% 22%  
43 4% 12%  
44 2% 8%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4% Last Result
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 491 100% 481–500 478–502 475–504 470–509
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 437 100% 427–447 424–450 422–453 417–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 408 100% 398–418 394–421 392–423 387–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 363 83% 352–373 349–376 347–378 342–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 84% 352–373 348–376 346–378 342–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 362 80% 351–372 348–375 346–377 341–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 346 17% 336–357 333–360 331–362 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 333 0.3% 323–342 319–345 315–347 311–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 288 0% 276–298 273–299 272–302 266–307
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 287 0% 276–297 273–299 271–302 266–307
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 269–290 266–293 264–295 259–300
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 204 0% 194–213 191–216 190–218 185–222
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 188 0% 180–198 177–200 175–203 170–207

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
465 0% 100%  
466 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
467 0% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.8%  
469 0.2% 99.8%  
470 0.1% 99.6%  
471 0.2% 99.5%  
472 0.3% 99.3%  
473 0.5% 98.9%  
474 0.3% 98%  
475 0.7% 98%  
476 1.2% 97%  
477 0.5% 96%  
478 2% 96%  
479 2% 94%  
480 0.9% 92%  
481 2% 91%  
482 3% 88%  
483 2% 85%  
484 3% 83%  
485 5% 80%  
486 4% 75%  
487 3% 72%  
488 8% 69%  
489 4% 61%  
490 3% 56% Median
491 8% 53%  
492 6% 45%  
493 3% 39%  
494 7% 36%  
495 5% 29%  
496 2% 24%  
497 5% 22%  
498 4% 17%  
499 2% 13%  
500 2% 11%  
501 2% 9%  
502 2% 6%  
503 1.0% 5%  
504 2% 4%  
505 0.4% 2%  
506 0.3% 2%  
507 0.7% 1.5%  
508 0.2% 0.8%  
509 0.1% 0.6%  
510 0.2% 0.5%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0% 0.2%  
513 0.1% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.2% 99.6%  
418 0.3% 99.4%  
419 0.3% 99.1%  
420 0.5% 98.8%  
421 0.6% 98%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.8% 97%  
424 1.3% 96%  
425 2% 95%  
426 1.4% 93%  
427 2% 92%  
428 2% 90%  
429 3% 87%  
430 3% 85%  
431 4% 82%  
432 4% 78%  
433 4% 73%  
434 4% 70%  
435 6% 66%  
436 5% 60%  
437 5% 54% Median
438 4% 49%  
439 5% 45%  
440 4% 40%  
441 4% 35%  
442 4% 31%  
443 5% 27%  
444 5% 22%  
445 3% 17%  
446 2% 14%  
447 2% 12%  
448 2% 10%  
449 2% 8%  
450 1.1% 6%  
451 1.3% 5%  
452 1.0% 4%  
453 0.6% 3%  
454 0.6% 2%  
455 0.4% 1.4%  
456 0.3% 1.0%  
457 0.2% 0.7%  
458 0.2% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.4%  
389 0.4% 99.1%  
390 0.5% 98.8%  
391 0.5% 98%  
392 0.7% 98%  
393 1.1% 97%  
394 1.0% 96%  
395 1.4% 95%  
396 1.2% 93%  
397 2% 92%  
398 3% 90%  
399 3% 88%  
400 4% 85%  
401 3% 81%  
402 5% 79%  
403 4% 74%  
404 4% 70%  
405 5% 66%  
406 5% 61%  
407 3% 56% Median
408 5% 53%  
409 5% 47%  
410 6% 42%  
411 3% 36%  
412 5% 33%  
413 4% 27%  
414 4% 24%  
415 4% 20%  
416 3% 16%  
417 2% 14%  
418 2% 11%  
419 2% 9%  
420 2% 7%  
421 0.8% 5%  
422 1.1% 4%  
423 0.7% 3%  
424 0.8% 2%  
425 0.6% 2%  
426 0.2% 1.0%  
427 0.2% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0.2% 0.4%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.6%  
343 0.2% 99.3%  
344 0.4% 99.2%  
345 0.4% 98.7%  
346 0.6% 98%  
347 1.0% 98%  
348 0.8% 97%  
349 2% 96%  
350 2% 94%  
351 2% 92%  
352 2% 91%  
353 3% 89%  
354 3% 86%  
355 3% 83% Majority
356 4% 80%  
357 3% 76%  
358 4% 73%  
359 4% 69%  
360 5% 65%  
361 6% 61%  
362 5% 55% Median
363 4% 50%  
364 6% 46%  
365 5% 40%  
366 5% 35%  
367 3% 31%  
368 4% 27%  
369 4% 23%  
370 3% 18%  
371 3% 16%  
372 2% 13%  
373 2% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.2% 7%  
376 1.3% 5%  
377 0.7% 4%  
378 0.9% 3%  
379 0.6% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.3%  
382 0.3% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.2% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.4% 99.3%  
344 0.4% 98.9%  
345 0.4% 98.5%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 1.1% 97%  
348 1.4% 96%  
349 0.8% 95%  
350 1.4% 94%  
351 2% 93%  
352 2% 90%  
353 3% 88%  
354 2% 86%  
355 3% 84% Majority
356 5% 80%  
357 3% 75%  
358 4% 72%  
359 4% 68%  
360 6% 64%  
361 6% 58%  
362 4% 52% Median
363 4% 48%  
364 5% 44%  
365 6% 39%  
366 4% 33%  
367 3% 29%  
368 2% 26%  
369 6% 23%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 15%  
372 2% 13%  
373 3% 11%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 1.3% 4%  
378 0.8% 3%  
379 0.6% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.2%  
382 0.3% 0.8%  
383 0.2% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0.2% 99.4%  
343 0.4% 99.1%  
344 0.4% 98.8%  
345 0.7% 98%  
346 0.8% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 2% 96%  
349 2% 94%  
350 2% 93%  
351 2% 90%  
352 2% 88%  
353 2% 86%  
354 3% 84%  
355 2% 80% Majority
356 4% 78%  
357 4% 74%  
358 5% 70%  
359 5% 65%  
360 4% 60%  
361 5% 56% Median
362 5% 50%  
363 6% 46%  
364 5% 40%  
365 4% 35%  
366 4% 31%  
367 4% 27%  
368 4% 23%  
369 3% 20%  
370 2% 17%  
371 3% 14%  
372 2% 11%  
373 2% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.4% 6%  
376 1.2% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.2%  
381 0.3% 0.9%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0.1% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.2% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.4% 99.1%  
329 0.5% 98.7%  
330 0.6% 98%  
331 0.9% 98%  
332 0.7% 97%  
333 1.3% 96%  
334 1.2% 95%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 3% 87%  
339 3% 84%  
340 4% 82%  
341 4% 77%  
342 3% 73%  
343 5% 69%  
344 5% 65%  
345 6% 60%  
346 4% 54% Median
347 5% 50%  
348 6% 45%  
349 5% 39%  
350 4% 35%  
351 4% 31%  
352 3% 27%  
353 4% 24%  
354 3% 20%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 2% 8%  
360 2% 6%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 1.0% 3%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.2% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.6%  
312 0.4% 99.4%  
313 0.4% 99.0%  
314 0.6% 98.7%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.6% 97%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 1.0% 96%  
319 0.8% 95%  
320 1.1% 94%  
321 1.2% 93%  
322 2% 92%  
323 2% 90%  
324 3% 88%  
325 4% 84%  
326 4% 81%  
327 5% 76%  
328 5% 71%  
329 5% 66%  
330 4% 61%  
331 4% 57%  
332 3% 54% Median
333 3% 51%  
334 4% 48%  
335 3% 44%  
336 5% 41%  
337 5% 35%  
338 4% 30%  
339 6% 26%  
340 4% 20%  
341 4% 16%  
342 3% 12%  
343 3% 9%  
344 1.4% 7%  
345 1.2% 5%  
346 0.9% 4%  
347 0.7% 3%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.4%  
351 0.3% 1.2%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.4%  
268 0.2% 99.2%  
269 0.3% 99.0%  
270 0.3% 98.7%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 1.3% 98%  
273 2% 97%  
274 2% 95%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 91%  
277 2% 89%  
278 2% 87%  
279 2% 86%  
280 3% 84%  
281 4% 81%  
282 5% 76%  
283 5% 71%  
284 4% 66%  
285 4% 62%  
286 4% 58%  
287 3% 54% Median
288 3% 52%  
289 7% 48%  
290 7% 41%  
291 6% 34%  
292 5% 28%  
293 2% 23%  
294 2% 21%  
295 3% 19%  
296 2% 16%  
297 3% 14%  
298 3% 11%  
299 3% 8%  
300 0.9% 5%  
301 0.9% 4%  
302 0.9% 3%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.4% 1.4%  
306 0.3% 1.1%  
307 0.4% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.2% 99.7%  
266 0.3% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0.3% 99.1%  
269 0.6% 98.8%  
270 0.6% 98%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 1.0% 97%  
273 1.2% 96%  
274 2% 95%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 91%  
277 2% 89%  
278 4% 87%  
279 3% 83%  
280 4% 80%  
281 4% 77%  
282 4% 72%  
283 4% 69%  
284 5% 65%  
285 5% 60%  
286 4% 54% Median
287 5% 50%  
288 6% 45%  
289 5% 38%  
290 5% 34%  
291 4% 29%  
292 4% 25%  
293 3% 21%  
294 3% 18%  
295 3% 15%  
296 2% 12%  
297 2% 10%  
298 2% 8%  
299 1.5% 6%  
300 1.5% 5%  
301 0.7% 3%  
302 1.0% 3%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.3% 1.4%  
305 0.3% 1.0%  
306 0.3% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.6%  
260 0.3% 99.4%  
261 0.4% 99.1%  
262 0.4% 98.8%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 1.0% 98%  
265 1.0% 97%  
266 1.2% 96%  
267 1.3% 95%  
268 2% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 2% 90%  
271 4% 88%  
272 3% 83%  
273 3% 81%  
274 4% 78%  
275 5% 74%  
276 4% 69%  
277 4% 65%  
278 5% 60%  
279 7% 56% Median
280 4% 49%  
281 6% 45%  
282 5% 40%  
283 4% 34%  
284 4% 30%  
285 5% 26%  
286 2% 21%  
287 3% 19%  
288 3% 15%  
289 3% 13%  
290 2% 10%  
291 2% 8%  
292 1.4% 6%  
293 1.4% 5%  
294 0.6% 4%  
295 0.9% 3%  
296 0.7% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.5%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.4% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.2% 99.7%  
185 0.2% 99.6%  
186 0.2% 99.4%  
187 0.5% 99.2%  
188 0.6% 98.7%  
189 0.6% 98%  
190 1.3% 98%  
191 1.3% 96%  
192 1.4% 95%  
193 2% 93%  
194 2% 91%  
195 3% 89%  
196 3% 86%  
197 3% 83%  
198 5% 80%  
199 4% 75%  
200 4% 70%  
201 6% 66%  
202 4% 60%  
203 5% 56% Median
204 6% 51%  
205 6% 45%  
206 4% 40%  
207 5% 35%  
208 5% 30%  
209 4% 25%  
210 3% 21%  
211 4% 18%  
212 3% 14%  
213 3% 11%  
214 2% 9%  
215 2% 7%  
216 1.4% 5%  
217 0.8% 4%  
218 0.9% 3%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.4% 1.5%  
221 0.3% 1.0%  
222 0.3% 0.7%  
223 0.1% 0.5%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.2% 99.7%  
171 0.3% 99.5%  
172 0.4% 99.2%  
173 0.5% 98.8%  
174 0.8% 98%  
175 0.6% 98%  
176 2% 97%  
177 1.0% 95%  
178 2% 94%  
179 2% 92%  
180 2% 90%  
181 3% 88%  
182 4% 85%  
183 3% 80%  
184 4% 77%  
185 6% 72%  
186 5% 67%  
187 6% 61%  
188 5% 55% Median
189 5% 50%  
190 6% 45%  
191 5% 39%  
192 5% 33%  
193 5% 29%  
194 3% 23%  
195 4% 20%  
196 3% 16%  
197 3% 13%  
198 3% 10%  
199 2% 8%  
200 1.2% 6%  
201 1.4% 5%  
202 0.7% 3%  
203 0.8% 3%  
204 0.5% 2%  
205 0.3% 1.3%  
206 0.4% 1.0%  
207 0.2% 0.6%  
208 0.1% 0.4%  
209 0.1% 0.3%  
210 0.1% 0.2%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations