Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 29–30 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–24.0% 19.9–24.3% 19.2–25.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.8–24.2% 19.2–25.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.2–18.1% 13.6–18.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 8.9–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.6–10.6% 7.1–11.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 170 159–180 155–184 153–187 148–192
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 168 158–179 155–183 152–186 148–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 114–133 111–136 109–138 104–144
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–93 74–96 73–98 69–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 62–77 60–80 58–81 55–86
Die Linke 69 54 47–61 46–63 44–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–45 32–47 31–49 28–52

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.4% 99.1%  
151 0.4% 98.7%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.8% 98%  
154 1.0% 97%  
155 1.0% 96%  
156 1.3% 95%  
157 1.3% 94%  
158 2% 92%  
159 2% 91%  
160 3% 88%  
161 3% 86%  
162 3% 83%  
163 4% 80%  
164 4% 76%  
165 4% 72%  
166 5% 68%  
167 4% 62%  
168 4% 58%  
169 4% 54%  
170 3% 50% Median
171 4% 47%  
172 6% 43%  
173 5% 37%  
174 4% 33%  
175 4% 29%  
176 3% 25%  
177 4% 22%  
178 3% 18%  
179 3% 15%  
180 2% 12%  
181 1.5% 10%  
182 2% 8%  
183 1.3% 6%  
184 1.0% 5%  
185 0.8% 4%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.6% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.3% 1.4%  
190 0.2% 1.1%  
191 0.2% 0.8%  
192 0.2% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.3% 99.5%  
149 0.4% 99.3%  
150 0.4% 98.9%  
151 0.5% 98%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.7% 97%  
154 0.7% 97%  
155 1.2% 96%  
156 1.4% 95%  
157 3% 93%  
158 2% 91%  
159 2% 88%  
160 3% 86%  
161 2% 83%  
162 3% 81%  
163 3% 78%  
164 3% 75%  
165 5% 72%  
166 5% 67%  
167 6% 63%  
168 7% 56% Median
169 6% 50%  
170 3% 44%  
171 4% 41%  
172 4% 37%  
173 3% 33%  
174 3% 30%  
175 3% 27%  
176 5% 24%  
177 3% 19%  
178 3% 16%  
179 4% 13%  
180 2% 9%  
181 1.1% 8%  
182 1.0% 7%  
183 1.1% 6%  
184 0.8% 5%  
185 0.9% 4%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 0.8% 2%  
188 0.3% 1.4%  
189 0.3% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.3% 99.3%  
107 0.4% 98.9%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.2% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 2% 94%  
113 2% 92%  
114 3% 90%  
115 3% 87%  
116 2% 84%  
117 5% 81%  
118 5% 77%  
119 4% 72%  
120 5% 68%  
121 5% 63%  
122 7% 58%  
123 5% 51% Median
124 4% 46%  
125 5% 42%  
126 4% 37%  
127 5% 33%  
128 6% 28%  
129 3% 23%  
130 3% 20%  
131 3% 16%  
132 2% 14%  
133 2% 11%  
134 2% 9%  
135 1.5% 7%  
136 1.4% 6%  
137 1.3% 5%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.3%  
142 0.3% 1.0%  
143 0.2% 0.8%  
144 0.1% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 0.6% 98.9%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 3% 90%  
78 4% 87%  
79 4% 82%  
80 5% 78%  
81 6% 74%  
82 6% 68%  
83 7% 62%  
84 6% 55% Median
85 7% 49%  
86 6% 43%  
87 5% 36%  
88 5% 32%  
89 4% 26%  
90 4% 22%  
91 3% 18%  
92 3% 15%  
93 3% 12%  
94 2% 9% Last Result
95 2% 7%  
96 1.2% 5%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.4%  
101 0.4% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.3%  
57 0.7% 98.9%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 4% 89%  
64 6% 85%  
65 6% 79%  
66 6% 73%  
67 6% 68%  
68 7% 61%  
69 7% 55% Median
70 6% 48%  
71 5% 43%  
72 9% 38%  
73 6% 29%  
74 4% 23%  
75 4% 19%  
76 3% 15%  
77 3% 12%  
78 2% 9%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 5% Last Result
81 1.4% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 2%  
84 0.4% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.4% 99.3%  
43 0.5% 98.9%  
44 1.1% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 3% 92%  
48 3% 89%  
49 4% 86%  
50 5% 82%  
51 8% 77%  
52 8% 68%  
53 8% 60%  
54 6% 52% Median
55 6% 46%  
56 7% 41%  
57 9% 34%  
58 6% 25%  
59 4% 18%  
60 2% 15%  
61 2% 12%  
62 4% 10%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.2% 4%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.5%  
30 1.1% 98.9%  
31 1.4% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 4% 94%  
34 5% 90%  
35 7% 85%  
36 6% 78%  
37 8% 72%  
38 9% 64%  
39 8% 54% Median
40 8% 47%  
41 9% 39%  
42 8% 30%  
43 6% 22%  
44 4% 16%  
45 3% 12%  
46 4% 9% Last Result
47 2% 5%  
48 1.0% 4%  
49 0.9% 3%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 0.4% 1.0%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 501 100% 489–513 486–516 483–518 477–525
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 434–460 432–463 428–466 422–472
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 401 100% 388–415 385–417 382–420 375–427
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 378 98.9% 365–391 361–394 358–397 352–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 78% 350–375 346–379 343–382 337–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 362 78% 349–375 346–378 342–382 336–388
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 22% 334–359 330–363 327–366 321–372
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 331 1.2% 318–344 315–348 312–351 306–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 292 0% 280–305 276–309 274–312 268–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 293 0% 280–305 276–309 273–312 268–319
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 277 0% 265–290 262–293 258–297 252–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 192 0% 181–205 179–208 177–211 170–216
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 178 0% 166–188 163–191 160–194 155–200

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.9%  
474 0.1% 99.8%  
475 0.1% 99.8%  
476 0.1% 99.7%  
477 0.1% 99.5%  
478 0.1% 99.4%  
479 0.2% 99.3%  
480 0.4% 99.0%  
481 0.4% 98.7%  
482 0.5% 98%  
483 0.8% 98%  
484 0.9% 97%  
485 0.8% 96%  
486 1.3% 95%  
487 1.4% 94%  
488 1.1% 93%  
489 2% 91%  
490 3% 90%  
491 2% 87%  
492 3% 85%  
493 3% 82%  
494 4% 79%  
495 3% 75%  
496 3% 72%  
497 5% 69%  
498 5% 64%  
499 2% 60%  
500 4% 57% Median
501 5% 54%  
502 6% 49%  
503 4% 43%  
504 3% 39%  
505 4% 35%  
506 6% 31%  
507 2% 25%  
508 4% 23%  
509 3% 19%  
510 2% 17%  
511 2% 15%  
512 2% 13%  
513 2% 10%  
514 2% 9%  
515 2% 7%  
516 0.9% 5%  
517 1.3% 4%  
518 0.6% 3%  
519 0.6% 2%  
520 0.4% 2%  
521 0.2% 1.4%  
522 0.2% 1.1%  
523 0.2% 0.9%  
524 0.2% 0.7%  
525 0.1% 0.5%  
526 0.1% 0.4%  
527 0.1% 0.2%  
528 0% 0.2%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.5%  
423 0.2% 99.4%  
424 0.2% 99.2%  
425 0.3% 98.9%  
426 0.3% 98.6%  
427 0.4% 98%  
428 0.8% 98%  
429 0.7% 97%  
430 0.7% 96%  
431 0.6% 96%  
432 1.3% 95%  
433 2% 94%  
434 2% 92%  
435 1.3% 90%  
436 2% 88%  
437 2% 87%  
438 2% 84%  
439 2% 82%  
440 4% 79%  
441 3% 75%  
442 4% 72%  
443 3% 67%  
444 3% 65%  
445 6% 62%  
446 3% 56% Median
447 3% 53%  
448 5% 50%  
449 4% 45%  
450 3% 41%  
451 3% 37%  
452 6% 34%  
453 4% 29%  
454 4% 25%  
455 2% 21%  
456 2% 19%  
457 2% 17%  
458 2% 14%  
459 3% 13%  
460 1.2% 10%  
461 2% 9%  
462 1.4% 7%  
463 1.2% 6%  
464 0.8% 4%  
465 0.9% 4%  
466 0.6% 3%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.2% 1.5%  
469 0.2% 1.3%  
470 0.2% 1.0%  
471 0.2% 0.8%  
472 0.2% 0.6%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.1% 99.3%  
377 0.2% 99.2%  
378 0.2% 99.0%  
379 0.3% 98.8%  
380 0.3% 98%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.5% 98%  
383 1.0% 97%  
384 0.6% 96%  
385 1.3% 96%  
386 1.2% 94%  
387 2% 93%  
388 1.4% 91%  
389 3% 89%  
390 3% 87%  
391 3% 84%  
392 4% 81%  
393 3% 77%  
394 2% 74%  
395 2% 72%  
396 3% 69%  
397 2% 66%  
398 3% 64%  
399 4% 61% Median
400 4% 57%  
401 4% 53%  
402 5% 48%  
403 5% 43%  
404 6% 38%  
405 4% 33%  
406 3% 29%  
407 3% 25%  
408 3% 23%  
409 2% 20%  
410 2% 18%  
411 1.5% 16%  
412 2% 15%  
413 1.0% 13%  
414 1.3% 12%  
415 2% 10%  
416 2% 8%  
417 1.4% 6%  
418 1.0% 5%  
419 1.0% 4%  
420 0.6% 3%  
421 0.6% 2%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.2% 1.3%  
424 0.2% 1.1%  
425 0.2% 0.9%  
426 0.1% 0.7%  
427 0.1% 0.6%  
428 0.2% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.3% 99.4%  
354 0.2% 99.1%  
355 0.3% 98.9% Majority
356 0.4% 98.6%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.7% 98%  
359 0.7% 97%  
360 0.5% 96%  
361 2% 96%  
362 0.7% 94%  
363 1.3% 93%  
364 2% 92%  
365 2% 90%  
366 2% 89%  
367 2% 87%  
368 3% 85%  
369 4% 82%  
370 2% 78%  
371 3% 76%  
372 3% 73%  
373 4% 69%  
374 3% 66%  
375 3% 63%  
376 4% 60%  
377 4% 56% Median
378 3% 52%  
379 3% 49%  
380 5% 45%  
381 5% 40%  
382 3% 34%  
383 2% 32%  
384 5% 30%  
385 3% 25%  
386 2% 22%  
387 3% 20%  
388 3% 17%  
389 3% 15%  
390 1.1% 12%  
391 2% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 2% 7%  
394 1.1% 5%  
395 0.7% 4%  
396 0.7% 4%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.3% 1.4%  
401 0.3% 1.1%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.1% 99.5%  
338 0.3% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.1%  
340 0.3% 98.8%  
341 0.3% 98.5%  
342 0.7% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.5% 97%  
345 1.2% 96%  
346 1.4% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 0.9% 92%  
349 1.3% 91%  
350 2% 90%  
351 2% 88%  
352 3% 87%  
353 3% 84%  
354 4% 81%  
355 4% 78% Majority
356 3% 74%  
357 3% 71%  
358 3% 68%  
359 3% 65%  
360 6% 62% Median
361 3% 56%  
362 5% 53%  
363 4% 48%  
364 5% 44%  
365 3% 39%  
366 3% 36%  
367 3% 33%  
368 2% 30%  
369 5% 27%  
370 3% 22%  
371 2% 20%  
372 3% 18%  
373 1.5% 14%  
374 2% 13%  
375 1.3% 11%  
376 1.2% 9%  
377 2% 8%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 1.0% 5%  
380 0.8% 4%  
381 0.7% 3%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.3%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.3% 99.5%  
338 0.2% 99.2%  
339 0.2% 99.0%  
340 0.3% 98.8%  
341 0.5% 98%  
342 0.7% 98%  
343 0.6% 97%  
344 0.7% 97%  
345 0.9% 96%  
346 1.2% 95%  
347 1.4% 94%  
348 2% 92%  
349 1.4% 91%  
350 2% 90%  
351 2% 88%  
352 3% 86%  
353 2% 82%  
354 3% 81%  
355 3% 78% Majority
356 3% 74%  
357 4% 72%  
358 4% 68%  
359 3% 64%  
360 5% 61%  
361 3% 56%  
362 4% 53% Median
363 4% 50%  
364 4% 46%  
365 3% 42%  
366 7% 39%  
367 4% 32%  
368 3% 29%  
369 2% 26%  
370 3% 23%  
371 3% 20%  
372 3% 17%  
373 2% 15%  
374 2% 13%  
375 2% 11%  
376 1.2% 9%  
377 2% 8%  
378 1.1% 6%  
379 0.9% 5%  
380 0.7% 4%  
381 0.8% 3%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.3% 1.4%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.2% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.4%  
323 0.3% 99.2%  
324 0.2% 98.9%  
325 0.3% 98.7%  
326 0.4% 98%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.7% 97%  
329 0.8% 97%  
330 1.0% 96%  
331 1.3% 95%  
332 2% 93%  
333 1.2% 92%  
334 1.3% 91%  
335 2% 89%  
336 1.5% 87%  
337 3% 86%  
338 2% 82%  
339 3% 80%  
340 5% 78%  
341 2% 73%  
342 3% 70%  
343 3% 67%  
344 3% 64%  
345 5% 61%  
346 4% 56%  
347 5% 52% Median
348 3% 47%  
349 6% 44%  
350 3% 38%  
351 3% 35%  
352 3% 32%  
353 3% 29%  
354 4% 26%  
355 4% 22% Majority
356 3% 19%  
357 3% 16%  
358 2% 13%  
359 2% 12%  
360 1.3% 10%  
361 0.9% 9%  
362 2% 8%  
363 1.4% 6%  
364 1.2% 5%  
365 0.5% 4%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.7% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.3% 1.5%  
370 0.3% 1.2%  
371 0.3% 0.9%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.4%  
308 0.2% 99.1%  
309 0.2% 98.9%  
310 0.6% 98.8%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.8% 98%  
313 0.5% 97%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 0.7% 94%  
317 3% 93%  
318 1.5% 91%  
319 2% 89%  
320 2% 88%  
321 2% 85%  
322 2% 84%  
323 4% 81%  
324 2% 77%  
325 3% 75%  
326 3% 73%  
327 3% 69%  
328 5% 66%  
329 4% 62%  
330 6% 58% Median
331 5% 53%  
332 3% 48%  
333 5% 45%  
334 3% 40%  
335 4% 38%  
336 5% 34%  
337 2% 29%  
338 3% 26%  
339 3% 23%  
340 2% 20%  
341 3% 18%  
342 2% 15%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 11%  
345 1.4% 9%  
346 0.8% 7%  
347 1.4% 7%  
348 0.9% 5%  
349 1.2% 4%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.2% 1.4%  
355 0.4% 1.2% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.2% 99.2%  
271 0.3% 99.0%  
272 0.4% 98.7%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 0.8% 98%  
275 0.9% 97%  
276 1.1% 96%  
277 1.3% 95%  
278 1.4% 93%  
279 1.2% 92%  
280 1.2% 91%  
281 2% 90%  
282 2% 88%  
283 2% 86%  
284 3% 84%  
285 3% 81%  
286 3% 78%  
287 4% 75%  
288 5% 71%  
289 4% 66%  
290 6% 62%  
291 5% 57% Median
292 4% 52%  
293 3% 48%  
294 4% 45%  
295 4% 41%  
296 3% 37%  
297 3% 35%  
298 3% 32%  
299 3% 28%  
300 3% 26%  
301 4% 23%  
302 2% 19%  
303 2% 17%  
304 3% 15%  
305 2% 11%  
306 2% 10%  
307 1.4% 8%  
308 1.1% 7%  
309 1.1% 5%  
310 0.7% 4%  
311 0.6% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.4% 2%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.3% 1.3%  
317 0.3% 1.0%  
318 0.3% 0.7%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.4%  
270 0.3% 99.2%  
271 0.3% 98.9%  
272 0.6% 98.5%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.8% 97%  
276 1.3% 96%  
277 0.7% 95%  
278 1.0% 94%  
279 2% 93%  
280 2% 91%  
281 2% 89%  
282 2% 88%  
283 4% 86%  
284 3% 82%  
285 2% 79%  
286 3% 77%  
287 3% 74%  
288 3% 71%  
289 4% 68%  
290 4% 64%  
291 5% 60%  
292 3% 55%  
293 3% 52% Median
294 8% 49%  
295 3% 41%  
296 3% 38%  
297 5% 35%  
298 4% 30%  
299 3% 26%  
300 3% 24%  
301 3% 21%  
302 3% 19%  
303 1.5% 16%  
304 2% 14%  
305 2% 12%  
306 2% 10%  
307 0.9% 8%  
308 2% 7%  
309 1.1% 5%  
310 0.7% 4%  
311 0.5% 4%  
312 0.8% 3%  
313 0.6% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.4% 1.1%  
317 0.2% 0.8%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.1% 99.3%  
255 0.3% 99.2%  
256 0.6% 98.9%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.4% 97%  
261 0.8% 96%  
262 1.4% 96%  
263 2% 94%  
264 2% 92%  
265 1.0% 90%  
266 2% 89%  
267 2% 88%  
268 3% 86%  
269 5% 83%  
270 3% 78%  
271 3% 76%  
272 2% 73%  
273 4% 71%  
274 4% 68%  
275 4% 64%  
276 7% 59% Median
277 4% 53%  
278 2% 49%  
279 4% 47%  
280 5% 43%  
281 6% 38%  
282 4% 33%  
283 3% 29%  
284 2% 26%  
285 2% 24%  
286 4% 22%  
287 3% 18%  
288 2% 15%  
289 3% 13%  
290 1.3% 10%  
291 1.2% 9%  
292 1.2% 8%  
293 2% 7%  
294 1.3% 5%  
295 0.6% 4%  
296 0.5% 3%  
297 0.4% 3%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 1.3%  
301 0.2% 0.9%  
302 0.1% 0.7%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.7%  
170 0.2% 99.6%  
171 0.2% 99.5%  
172 0.3% 99.3%  
173 0.3% 98.9%  
174 0.3% 98.6%  
175 0.4% 98%  
176 0.4% 98%  
177 1.1% 98%  
178 1.1% 96%  
179 2% 95%  
180 2% 94%  
181 2% 92%  
182 2% 90%  
183 3% 87%  
184 3% 84%  
185 4% 82%  
186 5% 78%  
187 5% 73%  
188 4% 68%  
189 4% 64%  
190 3% 60%  
191 4% 57%  
192 3% 53% Median
193 5% 50%  
194 8% 45%  
195 4% 37%  
196 3% 34%  
197 2% 31%  
198 2% 29%  
199 3% 27%  
200 3% 24%  
201 4% 21%  
202 3% 17%  
203 2% 14%  
204 1.2% 12%  
205 1.1% 11%  
206 2% 10%  
207 2% 8%  
208 1.5% 6%  
209 1.1% 5%  
210 0.9% 3%  
211 0.6% 3%  
212 0.4% 2%  
213 0.4% 2%  
214 0.4% 1.2%  
215 0.3% 0.8%  
216 0.1% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.2%  
219 0% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.2%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.6%  
156 0.1% 99.4%  
157 0.5% 99.4%  
158 0.3% 98.9%  
159 0.1% 98.6%  
160 1.1% 98%  
161 0.7% 97%  
162 0.3% 97%  
163 2% 96%  
164 1.2% 94%  
165 0.4% 93%  
166 4% 93%  
167 2% 89%  
168 0.9% 87%  
169 6% 86%  
170 2% 80%  
171 3% 79%  
172 6% 76%  
173 3% 70%  
174 2% 66%  
175 7% 65%  
176 5% 57%  
177 0.9% 52% Median
178 9% 51%  
179 4% 42%  
180 1.4% 38%  
181 7% 37%  
182 4% 30%  
183 1.1% 25%  
184 6% 24%  
185 2% 19%  
186 2% 17%  
187 3% 14%  
188 2% 11%  
189 0.7% 9%  
190 2% 8%  
191 1.4% 6%  
192 0.5% 5%  
193 1.4% 4%  
194 0.7% 3%  
195 0.2% 2%  
196 0.8% 2%  
197 0.3% 1.3%  
198 0.1% 1.0%  
199 0.4% 0.9%  
200 0.1% 0.5%  
201 0% 0.4%  
202 0.2% 0.4%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0.1% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations