Opinion Poll by Kantar for BamS, 25–31 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.6–24.5% 21.2–24.9% 20.9–25.3% 20.3–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.1% 19.8–22.6% 19.4–23.0% 19.1–23.3% 18.5–24.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.1% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.6–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 175 164–186 161–189 159–191 154–197
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 161 150–171 148–174 145–177 141–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 113–132 110–134 108–136 104–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 69–84 67–87 65–88 62–93
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 62–76 60–79 58–81 55–84
Die Linke 69 69 62–76 60–78 58–81 55–84
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 32–43 31–45 30–47 27–50

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.5%  
155 0.2% 99.4%  
156 0.3% 99.1%  
157 0.5% 98.8%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 0.8% 98%  
160 1.0% 97%  
161 1.1% 96%  
162 2% 95%  
163 2% 93%  
164 2% 91%  
165 3% 89%  
166 3% 86%  
167 4% 84%  
168 2% 80%  
169 4% 78%  
170 5% 74%  
171 5% 69%  
172 3% 65%  
173 6% 62%  
174 5% 56%  
175 5% 51% Median
176 4% 46%  
177 4% 42%  
178 5% 38%  
179 5% 33%  
180 4% 28%  
181 4% 24%  
182 3% 21%  
183 3% 18%  
184 3% 15%  
185 2% 13%  
186 2% 10%  
187 2% 8%  
188 1.2% 7%  
189 1.2% 6%  
190 1.0% 4%  
191 0.9% 3%  
192 0.7% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.4% 1.4%  
195 0.3% 1.0%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.1% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.3% 99.5%  
142 0.5% 99.2%  
143 0.3% 98.7%  
144 0.6% 98%  
145 1.3% 98%  
146 0.9% 97%  
147 0.7% 96%  
148 2% 95%  
149 2% 93%  
150 2% 91%  
151 2% 89%  
152 3% 87%  
153 4% 84%  
154 3% 80%  
155 4% 77%  
156 3% 74%  
157 4% 70%  
158 7% 67%  
159 5% 60%  
160 3% 55%  
161 8% 52% Median
162 5% 45%  
163 4% 39%  
164 4% 36%  
165 4% 32%  
166 6% 28%  
167 2% 22%  
168 2% 20%  
169 4% 17%  
170 2% 13%  
171 2% 11%  
172 2% 9%  
173 2% 7%  
174 1.5% 5%  
175 0.7% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 3%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.5% 1.5%  
180 0.2% 1.0%  
181 0.2% 0.9%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.4%  
106 0.7% 99.0%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 0.9% 97%  
110 1.2% 96%  
111 1.3% 95%  
112 3% 93%  
113 4% 91%  
114 3% 86%  
115 5% 83%  
116 3% 79%  
117 3% 76%  
118 5% 73%  
119 5% 68%  
120 6% 63%  
121 7% 57% Median
122 5% 49%  
123 5% 45%  
124 3% 40%  
125 6% 37%  
126 5% 31%  
127 5% 26%  
128 4% 21%  
129 2% 17%  
130 2% 15%  
131 2% 13%  
132 3% 11%  
133 3% 8%  
134 1.4% 6%  
135 1.1% 4%  
136 0.8% 3%  
137 0.5% 2%  
138 0.4% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.5%  
140 0.3% 0.9%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.1% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 0.7% 98.7%  
65 1.2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 2% 93%  
69 4% 91%  
70 4% 87%  
71 4% 82%  
72 5% 78%  
73 6% 73%  
74 6% 67%  
75 6% 61%  
76 7% 55% Median
77 6% 47%  
78 5% 42%  
79 6% 36%  
80 6% 30%  
81 5% 24%  
82 4% 20%  
83 4% 16%  
84 3% 12%  
85 2% 9%  
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 0.9% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.8%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.4% 99.2%  
57 0.8% 98.8%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 3% 91%  
63 5% 88%  
64 5% 82%  
65 6% 78%  
66 8% 72%  
67 7% 64%  
68 5% 57%  
69 8% 53% Median
70 6% 45%  
71 5% 39%  
72 8% 34%  
73 5% 26%  
74 4% 21%  
75 4% 16%  
76 3% 12%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.3% 5%  
80 1.2% 4% Last Result
81 0.9% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.6% 99.3%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 4% 86%  
64 5% 83%  
65 6% 77%  
66 7% 71%  
67 6% 65%  
68 8% 58%  
69 7% 51% Last Result, Median
70 7% 44%  
71 5% 37%  
72 7% 32%  
73 5% 26%  
74 4% 21%  
75 4% 17%  
76 3% 13%  
77 2% 9%  
78 3% 8%  
79 1.4% 5%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 0.6% 99.5%  
29 1.2% 98.8%  
30 2% 98%  
31 3% 96%  
32 4% 92%  
33 6% 88%  
34 6% 82%  
35 8% 76%  
36 9% 68%  
37 10% 59% Median
38 8% 49%  
39 9% 41%  
40 7% 32%  
41 6% 25%  
42 5% 19%  
43 4% 14%  
44 3% 10%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4% Last Result
47 1.1% 3%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.4% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.6%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 496 100% 483–506 481–510 477–512 472–517
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 442 100% 430–454 426–457 423–460 418–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 389 100% 377–401 373–405 370–408 364–414
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 373 97% 360–386 357–389 354–392 348–398
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 366 87% 353–378 350–381 347–385 341–390
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 365 88% 353–378 350–382 347–384 341–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 344 12% 331–356 327–359 325–362 318–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 320 0% 308–332 304–336 301–339 295–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 297 0% 284–309 281–313 278–315 272–321
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 275 0% 262–287 259–290 256–293 250–299
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 267 0% 255–279 252–282 249–285 243–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 190 0% 180–202 177–205 174–208 169–213
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 190 0% 180–202 176–205 174–208 169–213

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
465 0% 100%  
466 0% 99.9% Last Result
467 0% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.9%  
469 0% 99.8%  
470 0.1% 99.8%  
471 0.2% 99.7%  
472 0.3% 99.5%  
473 0.2% 99.2%  
474 0.2% 99.0%  
475 0.3% 98.8%  
476 0.5% 98%  
477 0.7% 98%  
478 0.7% 97%  
479 0.5% 97%  
480 0.8% 96%  
481 2% 95%  
482 2% 93%  
483 1.4% 91%  
484 2% 90%  
485 3% 88%  
486 3% 85%  
487 3% 82%  
488 4% 79%  
489 2% 75%  
490 4% 73%  
491 4% 69%  
492 5% 65%  
493 2% 60%  
494 3% 58% Median
495 4% 55%  
496 7% 51%  
497 6% 44%  
498 3% 38%  
499 3% 35%  
500 5% 32%  
501 5% 27%  
502 3% 22%  
503 3% 19%  
504 2% 16%  
505 2% 14%  
506 3% 12%  
507 2% 10%  
508 0.8% 7%  
509 1.0% 7%  
510 1.4% 6%  
511 1.4% 4%  
512 0.7% 3%  
513 0.4% 2%  
514 0.3% 2%  
515 0.4% 1.4%  
516 0.4% 1.0%  
517 0.2% 0.6%  
518 0.1% 0.4%  
519 0.1% 0.3%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0.1% 0.2%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0.2% 99.5%  
419 0.3% 99.3%  
420 0.2% 99.0%  
421 0.4% 98.8%  
422 0.4% 98%  
423 0.8% 98%  
424 0.6% 97%  
425 0.9% 97%  
426 0.8% 96%  
427 1.1% 95%  
428 1.2% 94%  
429 2% 93%  
430 2% 91%  
431 2% 88%  
432 3% 86%  
433 2% 83%  
434 3% 81%  
435 3% 79%  
436 3% 75%  
437 3% 72%  
438 4% 69%  
439 4% 65%  
440 4% 61%  
441 5% 57%  
442 4% 53% Median
443 5% 48%  
444 4% 44%  
445 4% 40%  
446 3% 36%  
447 5% 33%  
448 4% 28%  
449 3% 24%  
450 3% 21%  
451 2% 18%  
452 2% 15%  
453 2% 13%  
454 2% 12%  
455 2% 10%  
456 2% 8%  
457 1.2% 6%  
458 1.0% 5%  
459 0.7% 4%  
460 0.5% 3%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.4%  
464 0.3% 1.0%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.1% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.2%  
367 0.3% 99.0%  
368 0.4% 98.6%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 0.7% 96%  
373 2% 96%  
374 0.9% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 1.5% 92%  
377 2% 90%  
378 1.5% 88%  
379 3% 86%  
380 2% 84%  
381 3% 82%  
382 3% 78%  
383 4% 75%  
384 2% 71%  
385 4% 69%  
386 4% 64%  
387 4% 60%  
388 3% 57% Median
389 5% 53%  
390 4% 49%  
391 5% 45%  
392 4% 40%  
393 3% 35%  
394 5% 33%  
395 3% 28%  
396 4% 25%  
397 3% 22%  
398 3% 19%  
399 2% 16%  
400 2% 13%  
401 2% 11%  
402 2% 9%  
403 1.2% 7%  
404 1.2% 6%  
405 0.8% 5%  
406 0.7% 4%  
407 0.8% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.2%  
412 0.2% 0.9%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.2% 99.6%  
349 0.3% 99.4%  
350 0.2% 99.2%  
351 0.3% 99.0%  
352 0.4% 98.6%  
353 0.5% 98%  
354 0.6% 98%  
355 0.5% 97% Majority
356 1.2% 97%  
357 0.7% 96%  
358 1.4% 95%  
359 2% 93%  
360 2% 91%  
361 1.4% 89%  
362 1.4% 88%  
363 3% 87%  
364 2% 84%  
365 4% 82%  
366 3% 78%  
367 3% 75%  
368 4% 72%  
369 4% 68%  
370 3% 64%  
371 4% 61%  
372 4% 56%  
373 3% 52% Median
374 3% 49%  
375 6% 46%  
376 5% 41%  
377 4% 35%  
378 4% 31%  
379 2% 27%  
380 3% 25%  
381 2% 22%  
382 2% 20%  
383 4% 18%  
384 2% 14%  
385 2% 12%  
386 2% 10%  
387 2% 8%  
388 1.0% 7%  
389 1.0% 6%  
390 0.7% 4%  
391 0.8% 4%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.6% 2%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.3%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.1% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.6%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.2% 99.1%  
344 0.4% 98.9%  
345 0.3% 98%  
346 0.4% 98%  
347 0.6% 98%  
348 0.9% 97%  
349 1.2% 96%  
350 1.2% 95%  
351 1.2% 94%  
352 2% 93%  
353 2% 91%  
354 2% 89%  
355 3% 87% Majority
356 2% 84%  
357 3% 83%  
358 3% 80%  
359 4% 77%  
360 3% 73%  
361 5% 69%  
362 3% 65%  
363 4% 62%  
364 2% 58%  
365 5% 56% Median
366 4% 51%  
367 4% 47%  
368 5% 43%  
369 4% 38%  
370 4% 35%  
371 5% 31%  
372 2% 26%  
373 3% 24%  
374 1.4% 21%  
375 4% 19%  
376 2% 16%  
377 3% 14%  
378 2% 11%  
379 2% 9%  
380 1.0% 8%  
381 2% 7%  
382 0.4% 4%  
383 0.9% 4%  
384 0.5% 3%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.2%  
389 0.3% 0.9%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.3% 99.2%  
344 0.2% 98.9%  
345 0.5% 98.6%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.6% 98%  
348 0.8% 97%  
349 1.2% 96%  
350 1.1% 95%  
351 1.0% 94%  
352 2% 93%  
353 2% 91%  
354 2% 89%  
355 2% 88% Majority
356 3% 86%  
357 4% 83%  
358 2% 79%  
359 5% 77%  
360 4% 72%  
361 3% 69%  
362 2% 65%  
363 6% 63%  
364 4% 58%  
365 4% 54% Median
366 3% 50%  
367 5% 47%  
368 3% 42%  
369 5% 38%  
370 2% 34%  
371 4% 31%  
372 3% 27%  
373 3% 24%  
374 3% 21%  
375 3% 18%  
376 2% 15%  
377 2% 13%  
378 1.4% 11%  
379 2% 10%  
380 1.3% 8%  
381 1.5% 7%  
382 1.1% 5%  
383 0.9% 4%  
384 0.8% 3%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.4%  
388 0.3% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.2% 99.5%  
320 0.2% 99.3%  
321 0.3% 99.2%  
322 0.3% 98.9%  
323 0.4% 98.6%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 0.9% 97%  
327 1.1% 96%  
328 1.5% 95%  
329 1.3% 93%  
330 2% 92%  
331 1.4% 90%  
332 2% 89%  
333 2% 87%  
334 3% 85%  
335 3% 82%  
336 3% 79%  
337 3% 76%  
338 4% 73%  
339 2% 69%  
340 5% 66%  
341 3% 62%  
342 5% 58%  
343 3% 53% Median
344 4% 50%  
345 4% 46%  
346 6% 42%  
347 2% 37%  
348 3% 35%  
349 4% 31%  
350 5% 28%  
351 2% 23%  
352 4% 21%  
353 3% 17%  
354 2% 14%  
355 2% 12% Majority
356 2% 11%  
357 2% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 1.1% 6%  
360 1.2% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.4%  
366 0.3% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.4% 98.8%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.9% 96%  
304 1.0% 96%  
305 0.8% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 1.5% 88%  
310 3% 87%  
311 3% 83%  
312 2% 80%  
313 3% 78%  
314 3% 75%  
315 3% 72%  
316 3% 69%  
317 3% 65%  
318 4% 62%  
319 5% 58% Median
320 4% 53%  
321 4% 49%  
322 5% 45%  
323 4% 40%  
324 4% 36%  
325 3% 32%  
326 4% 29%  
327 3% 25%  
328 3% 22%  
329 3% 19%  
330 2% 16%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 12%  
333 2% 9%  
334 0.9% 8%  
335 1.5% 7%  
336 0.7% 5%  
337 0.9% 5%  
338 0.8% 4%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.6% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.3% 99.0%  
276 0.4% 98.7%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.6% 97%  
280 1.0% 97%  
281 0.9% 96%  
282 1.4% 95%  
283 2% 93%  
284 2% 92%  
285 2% 90%  
286 2% 88%  
287 2% 85%  
288 3% 83%  
289 3% 80%  
290 4% 77%  
291 4% 73%  
292 3% 69%  
293 3% 66%  
294 4% 63%  
295 4% 58%  
296 4% 54% Median
297 4% 50%  
298 4% 46%  
299 4% 43%  
300 4% 38%  
301 3% 35%  
302 4% 31%  
303 4% 28%  
304 2% 24%  
305 3% 21%  
306 3% 19%  
307 3% 16%  
308 1.5% 13%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.1% 7%  
312 1.2% 6%  
313 0.8% 5%  
314 1.2% 4%  
315 0.7% 3%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.4% 1.5%  
319 0.2% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0.2% 99.4%  
252 0.2% 99.2%  
253 0.3% 99.1%  
254 0.4% 98.7%  
255 0.5% 98%  
256 0.6% 98%  
257 0.6% 97%  
258 1.1% 97%  
259 1.0% 96%  
260 1.4% 95%  
261 1.5% 93%  
262 2% 92%  
263 2% 89%  
264 2% 87%  
265 2% 85%  
266 4% 83%  
267 3% 79%  
268 3% 77%  
269 3% 74%  
270 4% 71%  
271 4% 67%  
272 4% 63%  
273 4% 59%  
274 5% 55% Median
275 5% 50%  
276 4% 45%  
277 4% 41%  
278 4% 37%  
279 4% 33%  
280 3% 29%  
281 3% 26%  
282 3% 23%  
283 3% 21%  
284 3% 18%  
285 2% 15%  
286 2% 13%  
287 2% 11%  
288 2% 9%  
289 2% 7%  
290 1.0% 5%  
291 0.5% 4%  
292 1.2% 4%  
293 0.4% 3%  
294 0.6% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.3%  
297 0.2% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.2% 99.4%  
245 0.2% 99.2%  
246 0.4% 98.9%  
247 0.4% 98.5%  
248 0.5% 98%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.7% 97%  
251 0.8% 96%  
252 2% 96%  
253 1.3% 94%  
254 1.3% 93%  
255 2% 91%  
256 3% 89%  
257 3% 87%  
258 3% 84%  
259 3% 81%  
260 3% 78%  
261 3% 76%  
262 4% 73%  
263 3% 68%  
264 3% 65%  
265 4% 62%  
266 5% 58%  
267 4% 53% Median
268 4% 49%  
269 5% 45%  
270 5% 40%  
271 4% 36%  
272 3% 32%  
273 5% 29%  
274 3% 24%  
275 3% 22%  
276 3% 18%  
277 2% 16%  
278 2% 14%  
279 2% 11%  
280 2% 10%  
281 2% 8%  
282 1.5% 6%  
283 0.9% 5%  
284 0.8% 4%  
285 0.7% 3%  
286 0.5% 2%  
287 0.6% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.4%  
289 0.2% 1.1%  
290 0.2% 0.9%  
291 0.2% 0.7%  
292 0.2% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.2% 99.4%  
171 0.4% 99.2%  
172 0.5% 98.8%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 0.7% 98%  
175 1.4% 97%  
176 0.6% 96%  
177 1.4% 95%  
178 1.2% 94%  
179 2% 93%  
180 3% 91%  
181 2% 88%  
182 3% 86%  
183 4% 83%  
184 3% 79%  
185 5% 76%  
186 4% 71%  
187 3% 68%  
188 4% 64%  
189 5% 60%  
190 5% 54% Median
191 3% 50%  
192 4% 46%  
193 5% 43%  
194 5% 37%  
195 4% 33%  
196 2% 29%  
197 5% 26%  
198 4% 22%  
199 3% 18%  
200 2% 15%  
201 2% 13%  
202 2% 11%  
203 2% 9%  
204 1.2% 7%  
205 0.9% 6%  
206 0.9% 5%  
207 1.0% 4%  
208 1.1% 3%  
209 0.4% 2%  
210 0.5% 2%  
211 0.3% 1.1%  
212 0.2% 0.8%  
213 0.1% 0.6%  
214 0.1% 0.5%  
215 0.1% 0.4%  
216 0.1% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0.2% 99.5%  
171 0.4% 99.3%  
172 0.7% 98.9%  
173 0.4% 98%  
174 0.4% 98%  
175 1.0% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 1.0% 95%  
178 1.0% 94%  
179 2% 93%  
180 2% 91%  
181 3% 88%  
182 2% 85%  
183 2% 83%  
184 5% 81%  
185 4% 76%  
186 3% 72%  
187 3% 69%  
188 5% 66%  
189 5% 61%  
190 6% 56% Median
191 2% 49%  
192 6% 48%  
193 7% 42%  
194 4% 35%  
195 2% 31%  
196 4% 29%  
197 4% 25%  
198 3% 22%  
199 3% 19%  
200 2% 15%  
201 2% 13%  
202 3% 11%  
203 2% 9%  
204 1.0% 7%  
205 0.9% 6%  
206 1.3% 5%  
207 1.0% 4%  
208 0.3% 3%  
209 0.7% 2%  
210 0.6% 2%  
211 0.2% 1.1%  
212 0.2% 0.9%  
213 0.2% 0.7%  
214 0.1% 0.5%  
215 0.1% 0.4%  
216 0.1% 0.3%  
217 0.1% 0.2%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations