Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 March–1 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.6–22.5% 19.1–23.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.6–22.5% 19.1–23.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.1–17.9% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 159 152–166 148–167 147–168 146–173
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 151–165 149–168 148–169 144–173
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 122–135 120–137 118–138 115–142
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 85–96 83–98 82–99 79–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 76 70–81 69–82 68–84 65–87
Die Linke 69 53 48–57 47–59 46–60 44–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 41–50 40–51 39–52 37–54

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0.1% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0% 99.7%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.7% 99.6%  
147 2% 98.9%  
148 3% 97%  
149 1.1% 94%  
150 0.2% 93%  
151 0.3% 93%  
152 3% 93%  
153 9% 89%  
154 11% 80%  
155 7% 70%  
156 1.5% 63%  
157 0.5% 61%  
158 3% 61%  
159 12% 58% Median
160 16% 46%  
161 8% 29%  
162 2% 21%  
163 0.4% 19%  
164 1.0% 18%  
165 4% 17%  
166 7% 13%  
167 4% 7%  
168 0.9% 3%  
169 0.2% 2%  
170 0.1% 2%  
171 0.5% 2%  
172 0.7% 1.4%  
173 0.4% 0.7%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.3% 99.7%  
145 0.4% 99.4%  
146 0.5% 99.0%  
147 0.9% 98.5%  
148 1.1% 98%  
149 2% 97%  
150 2% 95%  
151 3% 92%  
152 3% 89%  
153 5% 85%  
154 4% 81%  
155 7% 76%  
156 6% 69%  
157 7% 63%  
158 6% 56%  
159 8% 50% Median
160 8% 42%  
161 7% 34%  
162 5% 27%  
163 5% 22%  
164 4% 17%  
165 3% 13%  
166 3% 10%  
167 2% 7%  
168 2% 5%  
169 1.1% 3%  
170 1.0% 2%  
171 0.5% 1.4%  
172 0.3% 0.9%  
173 0.2% 0.6%  
174 0.2% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.8%  
115 0.3% 99.7%  
116 0.4% 99.4%  
117 0.7% 99.0%  
118 1.1% 98%  
119 2% 97%  
120 2% 96%  
121 3% 94%  
122 4% 90%  
123 5% 87%  
124 6% 82%  
125 7% 76%  
126 7% 69%  
127 7% 62%  
128 7% 54% Median
129 8% 47%  
130 8% 39%  
131 7% 31%  
132 6% 25%  
133 5% 19%  
134 3% 14%  
135 3% 11%  
136 2% 8%  
137 2% 5%  
138 1.1% 3%  
139 0.8% 2%  
140 0.6% 1.5%  
141 0.4% 0.9%  
142 0.2% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 1.1% 99.0%  
82 1.4% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 3% 92%  
86 6% 89%  
87 9% 83%  
88 11% 74%  
89 8% 63%  
90 7% 55% Median
91 7% 49%  
92 7% 42%  
93 9% 35%  
94 8% 26% Last Result
95 6% 18%  
96 4% 13%  
97 3% 9%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 4%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.4%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.4%  
67 1.3% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 4% 93%  
71 5% 88%  
72 6% 83%  
73 7% 77%  
74 8% 70%  
75 12% 62%  
76 9% 51% Median
77 11% 42%  
78 9% 31%  
79 7% 22%  
80 5% 15% Last Result
81 3% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 2% 98.7%  
47 3% 97%  
48 5% 94%  
49 6% 89%  
50 8% 83%  
51 10% 75%  
52 11% 65%  
53 13% 54% Median
54 9% 41%  
55 8% 32%  
56 9% 24%  
57 5% 14%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.9%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.4%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 5% 94%  
42 8% 89%  
43 11% 80%  
44 10% 69%  
45 11% 60% Median
46 13% 49% Last Result
47 10% 35%  
48 9% 25%  
49 6% 17%  
50 4% 11%  
51 3% 7%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.9% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 490 100% 482–498 480–500 478–502 474–506
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 438 100% 429–446 427–448 425–450 421–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 408 100% 399–416 397–418 395–420 390–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 98.9% 361–378 359–380 357–383 352–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 87% 353–370 351–373 349–375 345–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 362 87% 353–371 351–373 349–375 345–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 1.1% 331–348 329–350 326–352 322–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 0% 323–341 321–343 319–345 315–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 294 0% 286–303 284–305 282–307 277–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 286 0% 278–295 276–297 274–299 270–303
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 271–287 269–290 267–292 263–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 204 0% 196–211 194–214 192–215 188–219
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 174–189 171–191 170–193 166–196

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0.1% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.9%  
473 0.2% 99.8%  
474 0.2% 99.6%  
475 0.3% 99.4%  
476 0.4% 99.1%  
477 0.8% 98.7%  
478 1.0% 98%  
479 1.4% 97%  
480 2% 95%  
481 2% 94%  
482 3% 91%  
483 3% 88%  
484 3% 85%  
485 5% 82%  
486 5% 78%  
487 5% 73%  
488 6% 67%  
489 5% 61%  
490 8% 56%  
491 7% 48% Median
492 6% 41%  
493 5% 35%  
494 6% 29%  
495 4% 23%  
496 4% 19%  
497 3% 14%  
498 3% 11%  
499 2% 8%  
500 2% 6%  
501 1.3% 5%  
502 0.9% 3%  
503 0.9% 2%  
504 0.5% 1.4%  
505 0.3% 0.9%  
506 0.3% 0.6%  
507 0.1% 0.4%  
508 0.1% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.2% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.5%  
422 0.5% 99.4%  
423 0.5% 98.9%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 1.3% 98%  
426 1.1% 97%  
427 2% 96%  
428 2% 94%  
429 2% 92%  
430 3% 89%  
431 5% 86%  
432 3% 81%  
433 6% 78%  
434 5% 73%  
435 6% 68%  
436 6% 63%  
437 5% 56%  
438 7% 51%  
439 6% 44% Median
440 5% 38%  
441 6% 33%  
442 6% 28%  
443 4% 22%  
444 4% 18%  
445 3% 14%  
446 3% 11%  
447 3% 8%  
448 1.2% 6%  
449 1.3% 4%  
450 0.9% 3%  
451 0.7% 2%  
452 0.4% 1.5%  
453 0.4% 1.1%  
454 0.2% 0.6%  
455 0.2% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.6%  
391 0.3% 99.5%  
392 0.3% 99.2%  
393 0.6% 99.0%  
394 0.8% 98%  
395 1.1% 98%  
396 1.2% 96%  
397 2% 95%  
398 2% 93%  
399 3% 91%  
400 4% 88%  
401 3% 84%  
402 5% 81%  
403 5% 76%  
404 3% 71%  
405 7% 68%  
406 5% 62%  
407 6% 57%  
408 9% 51% Median
409 4% 42%  
410 9% 39%  
411 6% 30%  
412 3% 24%  
413 5% 21%  
414 2% 16%  
415 3% 14%  
416 3% 11%  
417 2% 8%  
418 2% 6%  
419 2% 5%  
420 0.8% 3%  
421 0.8% 2%  
422 0.4% 1.4%  
423 0.4% 1.0%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.2% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.2% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.2%  
355 0.5% 98.9% Majority
356 0.8% 98%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 1.3% 97%  
359 1.4% 96%  
360 2% 94%  
361 2% 92%  
362 3% 90%  
363 4% 87%  
364 4% 82%  
365 6% 78%  
366 5% 72%  
367 5% 68%  
368 5% 62%  
369 5% 57%  
370 5% 52% Median
371 7% 46%  
372 5% 40%  
373 6% 35%  
374 5% 29%  
375 4% 25%  
376 5% 21%  
377 4% 15%  
378 2% 11%  
379 2% 9%  
380 2% 7%  
381 1.3% 5%  
382 0.8% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.4%  
386 0.4% 1.0%  
387 0.3% 0.6%  
388 0.2% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.4% 99.3%  
347 0.4% 99.0%  
348 0.7% 98.6%  
349 1.0% 98%  
350 1.2% 97%  
351 2% 96%  
352 2% 94%  
353 2% 92%  
354 2% 89%  
355 4% 87% Majority
356 4% 84%  
357 4% 79%  
358 5% 75%  
359 6% 71%  
360 7% 65%  
361 5% 58%  
362 5% 54%  
363 8% 48% Median
364 6% 40%  
365 5% 35%  
366 5% 29%  
367 5% 25%  
368 4% 20%  
369 4% 17%  
370 3% 13%  
371 2% 10%  
372 2% 8%  
373 1.2% 5%  
374 1.2% 4%  
375 0.8% 3%  
376 0.8% 2%  
377 0.4% 1.4%  
378 0.3% 0.9%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.2% 99.7%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.3% 99.4%  
347 0.5% 99.0%  
348 0.6% 98.5%  
349 0.9% 98%  
350 2% 97%  
351 1.4% 95%  
352 2% 94%  
353 2% 92%  
354 3% 90%  
355 2% 87% Majority
356 5% 85%  
357 5% 80%  
358 4% 75%  
359 7% 70%  
360 4% 63%  
361 7% 59%  
362 6% 52%  
363 4% 46% Median
364 7% 42%  
365 5% 35%  
366 5% 30%  
367 4% 25%  
368 4% 20%  
369 3% 16%  
370 3% 14%  
371 3% 10%  
372 2% 7%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.0% 4%  
375 1.0% 3%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.4% 1.4%  
378 0.3% 1.0%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.2% 99.8%  
322 0.3% 99.6%  
323 0.4% 99.4%  
324 0.4% 99.0%  
325 0.5% 98.6%  
326 0.8% 98%  
327 0.8% 97%  
328 1.3% 96%  
329 2% 95%  
330 2% 93%  
331 2% 91%  
332 4% 89%  
333 5% 85%  
334 4% 79%  
335 5% 75%  
336 6% 71%  
337 5% 65%  
338 7% 60%  
339 5% 54%  
340 5% 48% Median
341 5% 43%  
342 5% 38%  
343 5% 32%  
344 6% 28%  
345 4% 22%  
346 4% 18%  
347 3% 13%  
348 2% 10%  
349 2% 8%  
350 1.4% 6%  
351 1.3% 4%  
352 0.7% 3%  
353 0.8% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.1% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.2% 99.7%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.3%  
317 0.5% 98.9%  
318 0.9% 98%  
319 0.8% 98%  
320 2% 97%  
321 1.3% 95%  
322 2% 94%  
323 2% 92%  
324 3% 90%  
325 4% 86%  
326 3% 82%  
327 5% 79%  
328 5% 74%  
329 6% 70%  
330 5% 63%  
331 7% 58%  
332 6% 51% Median
333 4% 45%  
334 7% 41%  
335 4% 33%  
336 6% 29%  
337 3% 23%  
338 4% 20%  
339 3% 15%  
340 2% 12%  
341 3% 10%  
342 1.5% 7%  
343 2% 6%  
344 1.1% 4%  
345 1.1% 3%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.5% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.2% 99.8%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.4% 99.2%  
280 0.7% 98.8%  
281 0.6% 98%  
282 1.1% 98%  
283 1.3% 96%  
284 2% 95%  
285 3% 93%  
286 3% 91%  
287 3% 88%  
288 5% 85%  
289 5% 80%  
290 4% 75%  
291 7% 71%  
292 4% 64%  
293 5% 60%  
294 8% 55% Median
295 5% 47%  
296 4% 42%  
297 8% 38%  
298 4% 30%  
299 3% 25%  
300 6% 22%  
301 3% 16%  
302 3% 14%  
303 3% 10%  
304 2% 8%  
305 1.3% 6%  
306 1.4% 4%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.8% 2%  
309 0.5% 1.5%  
310 0.3% 1.0%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.2% 99.7%  
270 0.3% 99.5%  
271 0.3% 99.2%  
272 0.4% 98.9%  
273 0.8% 98%  
274 0.9% 98%  
275 1.1% 97%  
276 2% 96%  
277 2% 94%  
278 2% 91%  
279 4% 89%  
280 3% 85%  
281 6% 82%  
282 5% 77%  
283 5% 72%  
284 6% 67%  
285 6% 60%  
286 6% 55%  
287 5% 49% Median
288 6% 44%  
289 6% 38%  
290 6% 33%  
291 4% 26%  
292 5% 22%  
293 4% 18%  
294 3% 14%  
295 2% 11%  
296 2% 8%  
297 2% 6%  
298 1.2% 4%  
299 1.0% 3%  
300 0.6% 2%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.3% 1.1%  
303 0.3% 0.7%  
304 0.2% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0.1% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.2% 99.7%  
263 0.3% 99.5%  
264 0.4% 99.3%  
265 0.7% 98.9%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 1.2% 98%  
268 2% 97%  
269 2% 95%  
270 2% 93%  
271 4% 91%  
272 3% 87%  
273 4% 84%  
274 4% 81%  
275 5% 76%  
276 5% 71%  
277 5% 66%  
278 8% 61%  
279 4% 54%  
280 6% 49% Median
281 6% 43%  
282 6% 38%  
283 6% 32%  
284 5% 26%  
285 4% 20%  
286 3% 17%  
287 4% 14%  
288 3% 10%  
289 2% 7%  
290 1.3% 5%  
291 1.3% 4%  
292 0.7% 3%  
293 0.8% 2%  
294 0.5% 1.4%  
295 0.3% 0.9%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.2% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.3% 99.7%  
189 0.2% 99.5%  
190 0.6% 99.2%  
191 0.7% 98.6%  
192 1.2% 98%  
193 1.2% 97%  
194 2% 95%  
195 2% 94%  
196 4% 92%  
197 3% 88%  
198 5% 86%  
199 4% 81%  
200 6% 76%  
201 4% 70%  
202 9% 66%  
203 5% 56%  
204 9% 51% Median
205 5% 43%  
206 7% 38%  
207 5% 31%  
208 5% 26%  
209 4% 21%  
210 5% 17%  
211 3% 12%  
212 3% 10%  
213 2% 7%  
214 2% 5%  
215 1.0% 3%  
216 0.8% 2%  
217 0.5% 2%  
218 0.4% 1.1%  
219 0.3% 0.7%  
220 0.2% 0.5%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.2% 99.8%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.3% 99.4%  
168 0.6% 99.2%  
169 0.7% 98.5%  
170 1.1% 98%  
171 2% 97%  
172 2% 95%  
173 2% 93%  
174 4% 91%  
175 4% 86%  
176 4% 83%  
177 7% 79%  
178 6% 72%  
179 7% 66%  
180 7% 59%  
181 7% 52% Median
182 6% 45%  
183 7% 40%  
184 7% 33%  
185 4% 26%  
186 5% 22%  
187 3% 16%  
188 3% 13%  
189 3% 10%  
190 2% 7%  
191 1.2% 5%  
192 1.2% 4%  
193 1.1% 3%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.1%  
196 0.3% 0.7%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations