Opinion Poll by Kantar, 31 March–7 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.7–23.5% 20.3–23.9% 20.0–24.2% 19.3–25.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.8% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.2–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 168 157–178 155–181 152–184 147–190
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 157–178 154–181 151–184 147–189
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–123 103–126 101–128 97–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–92 74–94 72–97 69–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 62–77 60–79 58–80 54–84
Die Linke 69 68 62–76 60–78 58–80 55–84
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–44 32–46 31–48 29–51

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.3% 99.4%  
149 0.4% 99.1%  
150 0.4% 98.7%  
151 0.4% 98%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.7% 97%  
154 1.3% 96%  
155 0.9% 95%  
156 1.2% 94%  
157 3% 93%  
158 2% 90%  
159 3% 88%  
160 3% 85%  
161 5% 82%  
162 5% 77%  
163 4% 73%  
164 4% 69%  
165 4% 65%  
166 6% 61%  
167 3% 55%  
168 3% 53% Median
169 6% 50%  
170 4% 44%  
171 4% 40%  
172 4% 36%  
173 6% 32%  
174 4% 26%  
175 4% 22%  
176 4% 18%  
177 2% 14%  
178 4% 12%  
179 1.3% 8%  
180 1.2% 7%  
181 1.3% 5%  
182 0.7% 4%  
183 0.6% 3%  
184 0.5% 3%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.4% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.4%  
188 0.3% 1.0%  
189 0.2% 0.7%  
190 0.2% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.2% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.2% 99.5%  
148 0.2% 99.3%  
149 0.2% 99.1%  
150 0.9% 98.8%  
151 0.9% 98%  
152 0.8% 97%  
153 0.9% 96%  
154 1.4% 95%  
155 1.2% 94%  
156 2% 93%  
157 4% 91%  
158 2% 86%  
159 2% 84%  
160 3% 82%  
161 4% 79%  
162 5% 75%  
163 6% 70%  
164 3% 63%  
165 2% 60%  
166 6% 58%  
167 5% 52% Median
168 6% 47%  
169 5% 41%  
170 3% 36%  
171 1.4% 33%  
172 5% 31%  
173 5% 26%  
174 3% 21%  
175 3% 18%  
176 2% 15%  
177 1.1% 13%  
178 2% 12%  
179 4% 10%  
180 1.1% 6%  
181 0.9% 5%  
182 0.7% 4%  
183 0.4% 3%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.8% 2%  
186 0.2% 1.3%  
187 0.3% 1.0%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.1% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 99.3%  
99 0.5% 99.0%  
100 0.6% 98%  
101 0.9% 98%  
102 1.2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 2% 92%  
106 3% 89%  
107 3% 86%  
108 5% 83%  
109 4% 79%  
110 4% 75%  
111 5% 70%  
112 5% 65%  
113 7% 60%  
114 5% 54% Median
115 6% 48%  
116 5% 42%  
117 5% 37%  
118 5% 32%  
119 3% 27%  
120 4% 23%  
121 3% 19%  
122 4% 16%  
123 2% 12%  
124 2% 9%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.2% 6%  
127 1.3% 5%  
128 0.9% 3%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.3%  
132 0.2% 0.9%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 0.6% 99.2%  
71 0.7% 98.6%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 1.4% 95%  
75 3% 94%  
76 3% 91%  
77 3% 88%  
78 5% 85%  
79 4% 80%  
80 5% 76%  
81 6% 70%  
82 5% 64%  
83 7% 60%  
84 6% 53% Median
85 5% 47%  
86 7% 42%  
87 6% 35%  
88 5% 29%  
89 5% 24%  
90 4% 19%  
91 3% 15%  
92 3% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 1.4% 5%  
96 0.8% 3%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.3% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 0.5% 99.0%  
57 0.7% 98%  
58 0.7% 98%  
59 1.4% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 4% 89%  
64 7% 85%  
65 7% 78%  
66 9% 70%  
67 8% 62%  
68 9% 54% Median
69 9% 45%  
70 6% 36%  
71 4% 30%  
72 3% 26%  
73 3% 22%  
74 4% 19%  
75 3% 16%  
76 3% 13%  
77 2% 10%  
78 2% 8%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.3% 4% Last Result
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.2%  
57 0.6% 98.7%  
58 1.2% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 3% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 5% 86%  
64 6% 80%  
65 5% 75%  
66 7% 70%  
67 8% 63%  
68 8% 55% Median
69 6% 48% Last Result
70 7% 42%  
71 6% 35%  
72 5% 29%  
73 5% 24%  
74 4% 20%  
75 4% 15%  
76 3% 12%  
77 3% 9%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.5%  
30 1.2% 98.9%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 4% 93%  
34 5% 89%  
35 7% 84%  
36 9% 77%  
37 10% 69%  
38 10% 59% Median
39 8% 48%  
40 7% 41%  
41 7% 34%  
42 7% 27%  
43 6% 20%  
44 4% 14%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 7% Last Result
47 1.4% 4%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 0.9% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.1% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 477–499 473–502 470–505 464–510
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 442 100% 430–454 427–457 424–460 418–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 388 100% 376–401 373–404 370–408 364–414
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 98% 361–385 358–389 355–392 349–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 359 63% 346–370 342–374 340–378 334–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 351 33% 338–363 335–365 333–370 325–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 350 37% 339–363 335–367 331–369 326–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 320 0% 308–333 304–336 301–339 296–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 278–302 274–306 271–308 265–314
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 283 0% 270–294 267–298 264–300 258–306
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 274 0% 262–287 259–290 256–294 251–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 172–194 169–197 167–200 161–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 182 0% 173–194 170–198 167–200 162–205

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
458 0% 100%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.7%  
464 0.2% 99.6%  
465 0.2% 99.5%  
466 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
467 0.2% 99.0%  
468 0.5% 98.9%  
469 0.4% 98%  
470 0.6% 98%  
471 0.8% 97%  
472 1.2% 97%  
473 0.9% 95%  
474 1.1% 95%  
475 2% 93%  
476 2% 92%  
477 2% 90%  
478 2% 88%  
479 3% 86%  
480 4% 83%  
481 2% 79%  
482 3% 77%  
483 4% 74%  
484 4% 70%  
485 5% 66%  
486 3% 61%  
487 5% 58% Median
488 4% 52%  
489 5% 49%  
490 4% 44%  
491 4% 40%  
492 5% 36%  
493 4% 31%  
494 3% 27%  
495 3% 23%  
496 3% 20%  
497 3% 17%  
498 2% 14%  
499 2% 12%  
500 2% 10%  
501 1.5% 7%  
502 1.2% 6%  
503 1.0% 5%  
504 0.9% 4%  
505 0.6% 3%  
506 0.5% 2%  
507 0.5% 2%  
508 0.4% 1.2%  
509 0.2% 0.8%  
510 0.1% 0.6%  
511 0.1% 0.5%  
512 0.1% 0.3%  
513 0.1% 0.2%  
514 0.1% 0.2%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.4%  
420 0.3% 99.2%  
421 0.3% 99.0%  
422 0.4% 98.7%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.6% 98%  
425 1.0% 97%  
426 0.7% 96%  
427 1.4% 95%  
428 1.0% 94%  
429 1.5% 93%  
430 2% 91%  
431 2% 89%  
432 2% 87%  
433 3% 85%  
434 3% 82%  
435 4% 79%  
436 3% 75%  
437 4% 72%  
438 4% 69%  
439 4% 65%  
440 3% 60%  
441 4% 57% Median
442 4% 53%  
443 4% 49%  
444 3% 45%  
445 4% 42%  
446 3% 38%  
447 4% 35%  
448 4% 31%  
449 3% 27%  
450 4% 23%  
451 3% 19%  
452 3% 16%  
453 2% 13%  
454 2% 11%  
455 2% 9%  
456 1.2% 7%  
457 1.2% 6%  
458 0.8% 4%  
459 0.5% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.5%  
464 0.2% 1.1%  
465 0.3% 1.0%  
466 0.2% 0.7%  
467 0.1% 0.5%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.3%  
367 0.3% 99.0%  
368 0.3% 98.7%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.7% 97%  
372 0.8% 97%  
373 1.2% 96%  
374 1.4% 95%  
375 1.2% 93%  
376 2% 92%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 88%  
379 3% 86%  
380 4% 83%  
381 3% 79%  
382 4% 76%  
383 3% 72%  
384 4% 70%  
385 4% 65%  
386 5% 61%  
387 4% 57% Median
388 4% 53%  
389 4% 49%  
390 3% 45%  
391 5% 42%  
392 4% 37%  
393 4% 33%  
394 4% 30%  
395 2% 26%  
396 4% 24%  
397 3% 20%  
398 3% 17%  
399 2% 15%  
400 2% 13%  
401 2% 11%  
402 2% 9%  
403 0.9% 7%  
404 2% 6%  
405 0.8% 5%  
406 0.8% 4%  
407 0.7% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.6% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.8%  
414 0.2% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.8%  
347 0.1% 99.7%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.2% 99.5%  
350 0.2% 99.3%  
351 0.3% 99.1%  
352 0.4% 98.8%  
353 0.3% 98%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 0.6% 98% Majority
356 0.8% 97%  
357 0.8% 96%  
358 0.9% 96%  
359 1.5% 95%  
360 1.2% 93%  
361 2% 92%  
362 2% 90%  
363 2% 88%  
364 3% 86%  
365 2% 83%  
366 4% 81%  
367 5% 78%  
368 3% 73%  
369 4% 69%  
370 3% 66%  
371 4% 63%  
372 4% 59%  
373 4% 55% Median
374 4% 51%  
375 3% 47%  
376 4% 44%  
377 4% 40%  
378 3% 36%  
379 5% 33%  
380 2% 28%  
381 3% 26%  
382 4% 22%  
383 3% 18%  
384 3% 15%  
385 2% 12%  
386 2% 10%  
387 2% 8%  
388 1.4% 7%  
389 1.1% 5%  
390 0.8% 4%  
391 0.7% 4%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.5% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.3% 1.4%  
396 0.2% 1.1%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.2% 99.2%  
337 0.4% 98.9%  
338 0.6% 98.6%  
339 0.4% 98%  
340 0.8% 98%  
341 0.8% 97%  
342 1.1% 96%  
343 0.9% 95%  
344 0.9% 94%  
345 1.3% 93%  
346 2% 92%  
347 2% 90%  
348 2% 88%  
349 4% 86%  
350 4% 82%  
351 4% 79%  
352 4% 74%  
353 4% 71%  
354 3% 66%  
355 3% 63% Majority
356 2% 60%  
357 3% 57% Median
358 3% 54%  
359 5% 51%  
360 4% 46%  
361 3% 41%  
362 5% 38%  
363 4% 33%  
364 4% 28%  
365 3% 25%  
366 3% 22%  
367 3% 19%  
368 2% 16%  
369 2% 14%  
370 2% 12%  
371 2% 10%  
372 1.5% 8%  
373 1.5% 7%  
374 0.7% 5%  
375 0.8% 5%  
376 0.7% 4%  
377 0.5% 3%  
378 0.6% 3%  
379 0.6% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.3% 98.7%  
330 0.3% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.2% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.9% 97%  
335 2% 96%  
336 2% 95%  
337 1.4% 92%  
338 3% 91%  
339 3% 88%  
340 3% 86%  
341 2% 83%  
342 1.2% 81%  
343 1.0% 79%  
344 1.4% 78%  
345 2% 77%  
346 4% 75%  
347 5% 71%  
348 5% 67%  
349 6% 61%  
350 5% 55% Median
351 7% 50%  
352 4% 43%  
353 5% 39%  
354 2% 35%  
355 1.1% 33% Majority
356 1.3% 32%  
357 3% 30%  
358 3% 27%  
359 4% 24%  
360 4% 20%  
361 3% 17%  
362 2% 14%  
363 3% 12%  
364 2% 8%  
365 1.1% 6%  
366 0.6% 5%  
367 0.3% 4%  
368 0.4% 4%  
369 0.6% 4%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.3%  
374 0.4% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.3% 99.1%  
329 0.4% 98.8%  
330 0.6% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.5% 97%  
333 0.7% 97%  
334 0.8% 96%  
335 0.7% 95%  
336 1.5% 95%  
337 1.5% 93%  
338 2% 92%  
339 2% 90%  
340 2% 88%  
341 2% 86%  
342 3% 84%  
343 3% 81%  
344 3% 78%  
345 4% 75%  
346 4% 72%  
347 5% 67%  
348 3% 62%  
349 4% 59%  
350 5% 54% Median
351 3% 49%  
352 3% 46%  
353 2% 43%  
354 3% 40%  
355 3% 37% Majority
356 4% 34%  
357 4% 29%  
358 4% 26%  
359 4% 21%  
360 4% 18%  
361 2% 14%  
362 2% 12%  
363 2% 10%  
364 1.3% 8%  
365 0.9% 7%  
366 0.9% 6%  
367 1.1% 5%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 0.8% 3%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.4% 1.4%  
373 0.2% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.4% 98.8%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.9% 97%  
303 0.8% 96%  
304 0.9% 96%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 1.1% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 3% 89%  
310 2% 86%  
311 4% 84%  
312 3% 80%  
313 3% 78%  
314 3% 75%  
315 3% 72%  
316 5% 69%  
317 4% 63%  
318 3% 60%  
319 5% 57% Median
320 3% 51%  
321 5% 48%  
322 4% 43%  
323 5% 40%  
324 3% 35%  
325 3% 31%  
326 3% 28%  
327 4% 25%  
328 1.5% 22%  
329 4% 20%  
330 3% 16%  
331 2% 13%  
332 1.2% 12%  
333 2% 11%  
334 2% 9%  
335 1.0% 7%  
336 1.3% 6%  
337 1.0% 5%  
338 0.6% 4%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.4%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0.3% 0.9%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.3% 99.2%  
269 0.4% 98.8%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 0.4% 97%  
273 1.0% 97%  
274 1.2% 96%  
275 0.9% 95%  
276 2% 94%  
277 2% 92%  
278 2% 90%  
279 2% 88%  
280 2% 86%  
281 4% 84%  
282 2% 80%  
283 2% 77%  
284 4% 75%  
285 4% 70%  
286 3% 67%  
287 5% 63%  
288 2% 58%  
289 5% 56% Median
290 4% 51%  
291 4% 47%  
292 5% 43%  
293 3% 38%  
294 3% 34%  
295 5% 31%  
296 3% 26%  
297 3% 24%  
298 3% 21%  
299 2% 18%  
300 2% 15%  
301 2% 13%  
302 1.3% 10%  
303 2% 9%  
304 1.1% 7%  
305 1.0% 6%  
306 1.2% 5%  
307 0.6% 4%  
308 0.9% 3%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.4% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.2%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.2% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.2%  
261 0.5% 99.0%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.7% 97%  
266 0.9% 96%  
267 2% 95%  
268 1.3% 94%  
269 1.3% 92%  
270 1.3% 91%  
271 2% 90%  
272 4% 88%  
273 3% 84%  
274 2% 81%  
275 2% 79%  
276 3% 76%  
277 5% 74%  
278 5% 69%  
279 3% 64%  
280 3% 61%  
281 3% 58%  
282 5% 55% Median
283 6% 50%  
284 4% 44%  
285 4% 40%  
286 2% 36%  
287 3% 34%  
288 5% 31%  
289 5% 26%  
290 2% 21%  
291 2% 19%  
292 2% 17%  
293 3% 15%  
294 3% 12%  
295 0.8% 9%  
296 2% 8%  
297 0.6% 6%  
298 1.3% 6%  
299 1.2% 4%  
300 1.0% 3%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.4% 1.4%  
305 0.4% 1.0%  
306 0.2% 0.6%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.2% 99.4%  
253 0.3% 99.2%  
254 0.5% 98.9%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.9% 97%  
259 1.3% 96%  
260 2% 95%  
261 2% 93%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 89%  
264 3% 87%  
265 2% 84%  
266 3% 82%  
267 5% 79%  
268 3% 74%  
269 4% 71%  
270 2% 67%  
271 4% 65%  
272 5% 61%  
273 4% 56% Median
274 4% 52%  
275 4% 48%  
276 4% 44%  
277 4% 40%  
278 4% 36%  
279 4% 33%  
280 3% 28%  
281 3% 26%  
282 3% 23%  
283 2% 20%  
284 2% 17%  
285 2% 15%  
286 2% 12%  
287 2% 10%  
288 1.1% 9%  
289 2% 7%  
290 1.2% 6%  
291 0.9% 5%  
292 0.6% 4%  
293 0.5% 3%  
294 0.6% 3%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.5%  
297 0.2% 1.1%  
298 0.2% 0.8%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.6%  
162 0.1% 99.5%  
163 0.3% 99.3%  
164 0.4% 99.1%  
165 0.4% 98.7%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 0.9% 98%  
168 1.3% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 1.4% 94%  
171 2% 93%  
172 1.5% 91%  
173 2% 90%  
174 3% 88%  
175 3% 84%  
176 4% 81%  
177 6% 77%  
178 4% 71%  
179 4% 67%  
180 4% 64%  
181 5% 60%  
182 3% 55% Median
183 5% 51%  
184 5% 46%  
185 5% 41%  
186 5% 36%  
187 3% 31%  
188 3% 28%  
189 3% 25%  
190 3% 22%  
191 3% 20%  
192 3% 17%  
193 3% 13%  
194 3% 10%  
195 2% 8%  
196 0.8% 6%  
197 1.0% 5%  
198 0.6% 4%  
199 0.7% 4%  
200 0.8% 3%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.3% 1.1%  
204 0.2% 0.8%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.2% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.2% 99.3%  
164 0.4% 99.0%  
165 0.4% 98.7%  
166 0.4% 98%  
167 0.7% 98%  
168 0.8% 97%  
169 1.0% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 1.4% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 2% 91%  
174 2% 88%  
175 4% 86%  
176 4% 83%  
177 5% 79%  
178 5% 73%  
179 5% 69%  
180 5% 64%  
181 5% 59%  
182 5% 54% Median
183 5% 50%  
184 4% 44%  
185 4% 40%  
186 6% 36%  
187 2% 30%  
188 4% 28%  
189 4% 23%  
190 3% 20%  
191 3% 17%  
192 2% 14%  
193 2% 12%  
194 2% 10%  
195 1.4% 9%  
196 1.1% 7%  
197 1.0% 6%  
198 1.3% 5%  
199 1.1% 4%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.4% 1.5%  
203 0.3% 1.1%  
204 0.2% 0.8%  
205 0.1% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations