Opinion Poll by Forsa, 6–12 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.3% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–25.0% 20.6–25.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.0% 20.8–23.2% 20.5–23.6% 20.2–23.9% 19.6–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 175 165–185 164–187 161–189 157–194
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 158–177 155–179 153–182 149–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–122 104–125 103–127 99–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–91 75–93 74–95 71–98
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 63–75 60–77 59–79 57–82
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 34–44 33–45 32–46 30–49

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.2% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.5%  
158 0.2% 99.4%  
159 0.5% 99.2%  
160 0.9% 98.8%  
161 1.1% 98%  
162 0.6% 97%  
163 0.8% 96%  
164 2% 95%  
165 3% 93%  
166 3% 90%  
167 2% 87%  
168 2% 85%  
169 5% 83%  
170 7% 78%  
171 5% 71%  
172 3% 66%  
173 3% 63%  
174 7% 60%  
175 9% 54% Median
176 5% 45%  
177 3% 40%  
178 3% 37%  
179 5% 34%  
180 7% 29%  
181 4% 22%  
182 2% 18%  
183 1.5% 16%  
184 3% 14%  
185 4% 11%  
186 2% 7%  
187 0.6% 5%  
188 0.7% 5%  
189 1.5% 4%  
190 0.7% 2%  
191 0.7% 2%  
192 0.2% 1.1%  
193 0.2% 0.9%  
194 0.3% 0.7%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.3% 99.7%  
150 0.3% 99.4%  
151 0.4% 99.1%  
152 0.8% 98.8%  
153 0.6% 98%  
154 0.9% 97%  
155 2% 97%  
156 1.1% 95%  
157 3% 94%  
158 2% 91%  
159 3% 89%  
160 4% 86%  
161 4% 82%  
162 4% 78%  
163 5% 74%  
164 5% 69%  
165 5% 65%  
166 6% 60%  
167 5% 54% Median
168 6% 48%  
169 6% 43%  
170 5% 37%  
171 5% 32%  
172 5% 28%  
173 3% 23%  
174 4% 20%  
175 3% 15%  
176 2% 12%  
177 3% 10%  
178 1.4% 7%  
179 1.3% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.5% 3%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.3% 1.2%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.6%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 1.3% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 2% 93%  
107 4% 91%  
108 4% 87%  
109 5% 83%  
110 5% 78%  
111 7% 73%  
112 6% 67%  
113 6% 61%  
114 6% 55% Median
115 7% 49%  
116 6% 42%  
117 7% 36%  
118 5% 30%  
119 4% 25%  
120 5% 20%  
121 3% 15%  
122 3% 12%  
123 2% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.3%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 99.2%  
73 1.0% 98.6%  
74 1.0% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 94%  
77 3% 92%  
78 4% 89%  
79 6% 85%  
80 5% 78%  
81 7% 73%  
82 7% 66%  
83 7% 59%  
84 7% 52% Median
85 7% 45%  
86 6% 38%  
87 6% 32%  
88 6% 26%  
89 4% 19%  
90 4% 15%  
91 3% 11%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.5% 6%  
94 1.3% 4% Last Result
95 1.2% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 1.4% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 2% 95%  
62 2% 93%  
63 4% 91%  
64 7% 87%  
65 8% 80%  
66 8% 72%  
67 8% 64%  
68 5% 55% Median
69 5% 50%  
70 7% 45%  
71 7% 37%  
72 8% 30%  
73 7% 22%  
74 4% 15%  
75 2% 10%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.9% 2% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.2%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 7% 84%  
58 7% 77%  
59 7% 70%  
60 8% 63%  
61 9% 55% Median
62 9% 46%  
63 7% 37%  
64 6% 30%  
65 6% 24%  
66 5% 18%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.0%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 0.9% 98.7%  
32 2% 98%  
33 5% 96%  
34 5% 91%  
35 6% 86%  
36 9% 80%  
37 12% 71%  
38 8% 59%  
39 10% 51% Median
40 11% 41%  
41 8% 30%  
42 5% 22%  
43 7% 17%  
44 4% 10%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4% Last Result
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.5% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 495 100% 485–505 483–508 480–510 475–515
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 450 100% 440–460 436–462 433–465 429–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 390 100% 378–399 375–402 373–404 367–411
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 381 99.9% 370–392 367–394 365–397 359–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 358 68% 348–369 345–372 342–375 337–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 66% 347–369 344–372 342–375 337–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 351 32% 340–361 337–364 334–367 329–372
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 320 0% 309–331 306–334 304–336 299–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 290 0% 279–300 276–304 274–306 269–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 290 0% 279–300 276–303 273–306 268–311
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 274 0% 264–285 261–288 259–291 254–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 183 0% 173–193 171–195 169–197 164–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 166–185 164–187 161–189 157–195

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.8%  
474 0.1% 99.7%  
475 0.2% 99.6%  
476 0.2% 99.4%  
477 0.3% 99.2%  
478 0.4% 98.9%  
479 0.5% 98%  
480 0.9% 98%  
481 0.7% 97%  
482 1.2% 96%  
483 1.1% 95%  
484 2% 94%  
485 3% 92%  
486 3% 90%  
487 2% 87%  
488 3% 85%  
489 4% 82%  
490 4% 78%  
491 5% 74%  
492 5% 69%  
493 6% 64%  
494 5% 58%  
495 5% 53% Median
496 4% 48%  
497 6% 44%  
498 4% 38%  
499 4% 34%  
500 4% 30%  
501 5% 27%  
502 4% 22%  
503 4% 18%  
504 3% 14%  
505 2% 11%  
506 2% 9%  
507 2% 7%  
508 1.1% 5%  
509 1.4% 4%  
510 0.9% 3%  
511 0.5% 2%  
512 0.5% 2%  
513 0.4% 1.1%  
514 0.2% 0.8%  
515 0.2% 0.6%  
516 0.1% 0.4%  
517 0.1% 0.2%  
518 0.1% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0.1% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0.2% 99.5%  
430 0.3% 99.3%  
431 0.3% 99.0%  
432 0.4% 98.7%  
433 0.9% 98%  
434 0.6% 97%  
435 1.2% 97%  
436 1.0% 96%  
437 1.5% 95%  
438 1.5% 93%  
439 2% 92%  
440 3% 90%  
441 3% 87%  
442 3% 84%  
443 4% 81%  
444 4% 77%  
445 3% 73%  
446 6% 70%  
447 4% 64%  
448 5% 60%  
449 4% 55% Median
450 6% 51%  
451 6% 46%  
452 5% 40%  
453 3% 36%  
454 4% 32%  
455 5% 28%  
456 3% 23%  
457 3% 20%  
458 3% 17%  
459 3% 14%  
460 2% 10%  
461 2% 8%  
462 2% 7%  
463 0.9% 5%  
464 1.0% 4%  
465 0.8% 3%  
466 0.5% 2%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.2%  
469 0.3% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.3% 98.8%  
372 0.5% 98.6%  
373 0.9% 98%  
374 0.9% 97%  
375 2% 96%  
376 1.0% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 4% 92%  
379 3% 88%  
380 5% 85%  
381 3% 80%  
382 3% 78%  
383 3% 75%  
384 4% 71%  
385 5% 67%  
386 3% 63%  
387 3% 60%  
388 3% 56% Median
389 3% 53%  
390 4% 51%  
391 4% 47%  
392 5% 43%  
393 5% 37%  
394 5% 32%  
395 3% 28%  
396 4% 24%  
397 5% 20%  
398 4% 15%  
399 3% 11%  
400 1.5% 8%  
401 1.3% 7%  
402 1.3% 6%  
403 1.2% 4%  
404 0.8% 3%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.4%  
408 0.2% 1.2%  
409 0.2% 1.0%  
410 0.2% 0.8%  
411 0.2% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.3%  
362 0.4% 98.9%  
363 0.3% 98.5%  
364 0.7% 98%  
365 0.8% 98%  
366 0.7% 97%  
367 1.3% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 1.5% 93%  
370 2% 91%  
371 2% 89%  
372 2% 87%  
373 4% 85%  
374 3% 81%  
375 4% 78%  
376 4% 74%  
377 5% 70%  
378 4% 65%  
379 5% 61%  
380 6% 57%  
381 5% 51% Median
382 4% 46%  
383 4% 42%  
384 4% 38%  
385 5% 34%  
386 2% 28%  
387 3% 26%  
388 4% 23%  
389 3% 19%  
390 3% 16%  
391 2% 13%  
392 3% 11%  
393 2% 8%  
394 2% 7%  
395 1.1% 5%  
396 1.0% 4%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.7% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.3%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.2% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.2% 99.3%  
339 0.2% 99.1%  
340 0.4% 98.9%  
341 0.5% 98%  
342 1.0% 98%  
343 0.7% 97%  
344 1.1% 96%  
345 1.2% 95%  
346 2% 94%  
347 2% 92%  
348 2% 91%  
349 3% 88%  
350 3% 86%  
351 4% 83%  
352 3% 79%  
353 4% 76%  
354 4% 73%  
355 5% 68% Majority
356 5% 63%  
357 5% 58%  
358 5% 54% Median
359 4% 49%  
360 6% 45%  
361 3% 39%  
362 5% 36%  
363 4% 32%  
364 5% 28%  
365 2% 23%  
366 4% 21%  
367 2% 16%  
368 2% 14%  
369 2% 12%  
370 2% 10%  
371 2% 8%  
372 1.1% 6%  
373 1.2% 5%  
374 0.8% 4%  
375 0.7% 3%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.4% 1.2%  
379 0.2% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.2% 99.5%  
338 0.3% 99.3%  
339 0.4% 99.0%  
340 0.5% 98.7%  
341 0.5% 98%  
342 0.9% 98%  
343 1.5% 97%  
344 0.7% 95%  
345 1.2% 95%  
346 2% 93%  
347 2% 92%  
348 3% 90%  
349 2% 87%  
350 3% 85%  
351 4% 82%  
352 3% 78%  
353 3% 74%  
354 5% 71%  
355 4% 66% Majority
356 4% 62%  
357 5% 58% Median
358 4% 53%  
359 5% 49%  
360 6% 43%  
361 5% 38%  
362 4% 33%  
363 2% 29%  
364 4% 27%  
365 3% 23%  
366 4% 20%  
367 2% 15%  
368 3% 13%  
369 2% 10%  
370 2% 9%  
371 1.2% 7%  
372 1.1% 5%  
373 1.2% 4%  
374 0.6% 3%  
375 0.7% 3%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.3% 1.3%  
378 0.2% 1.0%  
379 0.2% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.2% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.4%  
331 0.4% 99.2%  
332 0.5% 98.8%  
333 0.4% 98%  
334 0.7% 98%  
335 0.8% 97%  
336 1.2% 96%  
337 1.1% 95%  
338 2% 94%  
339 2% 92%  
340 2% 90%  
341 2% 88%  
342 2% 86%  
343 4% 84%  
344 2% 79%  
345 5% 77%  
346 4% 72%  
347 5% 68%  
348 3% 64%  
349 6% 61%  
350 4% 55% Median
351 5% 51%  
352 5% 46%  
353 5% 42%  
354 5% 37%  
355 4% 32% Majority
356 4% 27%  
357 3% 24%  
358 4% 21%  
359 3% 17%  
360 3% 14%  
361 2% 12%  
362 2% 9%  
363 2% 8%  
364 1.2% 6%  
365 1.1% 5%  
366 0.7% 4%  
367 1.0% 3%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 0.9%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.3% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.3% 98.8%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 1.0% 97%  
306 2% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 2% 93%  
309 1.1% 91%  
310 2% 90%  
311 4% 88%  
312 3% 84%  
313 5% 81%  
314 3% 75%  
315 3% 73%  
316 4% 70%  
317 3% 66%  
318 3% 63%  
319 6% 60%  
320 5% 54% Median
321 5% 50%  
322 5% 45%  
323 3% 39%  
324 3% 36%  
325 4% 33%  
326 5% 29%  
327 4% 24%  
328 5% 20%  
329 2% 15%  
330 2% 13%  
331 1.3% 11%  
332 2% 10%  
333 2% 7%  
334 1.5% 5%  
335 1.0% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.2% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.3%  
271 0.5% 99.1%  
272 0.3% 98.6%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 0.7% 98%  
275 0.9% 97%  
276 2% 96%  
277 1.3% 94%  
278 1.4% 93%  
279 2% 92%  
280 2% 90%  
281 3% 88%  
282 2% 84%  
283 5% 82%  
284 4% 77%  
285 4% 73%  
286 5% 69%  
287 4% 65%  
288 6% 61%  
289 3% 55%  
290 6% 52% Median
291 5% 46%  
292 4% 41%  
293 5% 38%  
294 4% 32%  
295 4% 28%  
296 2% 24%  
297 4% 21%  
298 3% 17%  
299 2% 14%  
300 3% 13%  
301 2% 10%  
302 2% 8%  
303 1.4% 7%  
304 1.1% 5%  
305 1.1% 4%  
306 0.7% 3%  
307 0.6% 2%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.2%  
310 0.2% 0.9%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.4% 99.3%  
271 0.4% 98.9%  
272 0.5% 98.5%  
273 0.6% 98%  
274 0.7% 97%  
275 1.1% 97%  
276 2% 96%  
277 1.2% 94%  
278 1.3% 92%  
279 2% 91%  
280 3% 89%  
281 3% 86%  
282 4% 83%  
283 2% 79%  
284 4% 76%  
285 5% 73%  
286 5% 68%  
287 4% 63%  
288 4% 59%  
289 4% 55% Median
290 7% 51%  
291 4% 44%  
292 4% 40%  
293 4% 35%  
294 4% 31%  
295 3% 27%  
296 3% 23%  
297 4% 20%  
298 2% 16%  
299 3% 14%  
300 2% 11%  
301 2% 9%  
302 2% 7%  
303 1.3% 5%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.8% 3%  
306 0.4% 3%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.4% 1.4%  
309 0.3% 1.1%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.3% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.3%  
256 0.4% 99.1%  
257 0.7% 98.7%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.7% 98%  
260 1.3% 97%  
261 1.0% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 2% 92%  
264 2% 90%  
265 3% 88%  
266 3% 86%  
267 2% 82%  
268 4% 80%  
269 3% 76%  
270 5% 74%  
271 4% 68%  
272 5% 64%  
273 4% 59%  
274 5% 55% Median
275 3% 50%  
276 5% 47%  
277 6% 41%  
278 3% 35%  
279 4% 32%  
280 3% 29%  
281 5% 25%  
282 4% 20%  
283 4% 17%  
284 1.5% 13%  
285 2% 11%  
286 1.2% 9%  
287 2% 8%  
288 1.4% 5%  
289 0.8% 4%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.6% 3%  
292 0.5% 2%  
293 0.5% 1.4%  
294 0.3% 0.9%  
295 0.2% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.2% 99.7%  
165 0.2% 99.5%  
166 0.4% 99.3%  
167 0.4% 98.9%  
168 0.7% 98%  
169 0.9% 98%  
170 1.2% 97%  
171 1.3% 96%  
172 2% 94%  
173 3% 93%  
174 2% 90%  
175 4% 88%  
176 2% 83%  
177 5% 81%  
178 3% 76%  
179 5% 73%  
180 4% 68%  
181 5% 64%  
182 4% 58% Median
183 7% 54%  
184 5% 48%  
185 8% 43%  
186 3% 35%  
187 5% 32%  
188 5% 27%  
189 4% 22%  
190 2% 18%  
191 4% 16%  
192 2% 12%  
193 3% 10%  
194 0.8% 7%  
195 2% 6%  
196 0.6% 4%  
197 1.1% 3%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.3%  
201 0.4% 1.0%  
202 0.1% 0.6%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.1%  
160 0.5% 98.7%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 0.9% 97%  
163 0.9% 97%  
164 2% 96%  
165 2% 94%  
166 3% 92%  
167 3% 89%  
168 3% 86%  
169 4% 84%  
170 4% 80%  
171 6% 76%  
172 5% 70%  
173 5% 65%  
174 5% 60%  
175 5% 55% Median
176 5% 50%  
177 6% 45%  
178 5% 38%  
179 3% 34%  
180 5% 30%  
181 4% 25%  
182 5% 21%  
183 3% 16%  
184 2% 13%  
185 3% 11%  
186 2% 9%  
187 2% 7%  
188 1.5% 5%  
189 0.9% 3%  
190 0.6% 2%  
191 0.4% 2%  
192 0.3% 1.4%  
193 0.4% 1.1%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations