Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–12 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.6–22.5% 19.2–22.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.5% 19.6–21.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.7–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.2–17.9% 15.9–18.2% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.3–10.7% 9.1–10.9% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.2–7.9% 5.9–8.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 6.0–7.1% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.4% 5.4–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 158 151–165 149–167 148–169 145–172
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 154 147–162 146–164 144–165 141–169
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 128 122–135 120–137 119–138 116–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 85–96 83–97 82–99 80–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 75 70–81 69–82 68–83 65–86
Die Linke 69 53 49–57 47–59 46–60 44–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 45–53 44–55 43–56 41–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.6%  
146 0.6% 99.2%  
147 1.0% 98.6%  
148 1.3% 98%  
149 2% 96%  
150 2% 95%  
151 3% 93%  
152 4% 90%  
153 5% 86%  
154 5% 81%  
155 8% 76%  
156 7% 68%  
157 7% 61%  
158 6% 54% Median
159 7% 49%  
160 7% 41%  
161 8% 35%  
162 5% 27%  
163 6% 22%  
164 4% 16%  
165 3% 12%  
166 2% 9%  
167 2% 7%  
168 2% 5%  
169 1.2% 3%  
170 0.7% 2%  
171 0.5% 1.3%  
172 0.4% 0.9%  
173 0.2% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.3% 99.5%  
142 0.4% 99.2%  
143 0.7% 98.8%  
144 0.7% 98%  
145 2% 97%  
146 2% 95%  
147 3% 93%  
148 4% 90%  
149 4% 86%  
150 5% 82%  
151 6% 76%  
152 7% 70%  
153 7% 63%  
154 6% 56% Median
155 7% 50%  
156 6% 43%  
157 9% 37%  
158 6% 28%  
159 5% 22%  
160 4% 17%  
161 3% 14%  
162 3% 11%  
163 2% 8%  
164 2% 5%  
165 1.0% 3%  
166 0.9% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.5%  
168 0.4% 1.0%  
169 0.3% 0.5%  
170 0.1% 0.3%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.4% 99.5%  
117 0.6% 99.1%  
118 0.9% 98%  
119 2% 98%  
120 3% 96%  
121 3% 93%  
122 4% 90%  
123 4% 87%  
124 5% 82%  
125 7% 77%  
126 7% 70%  
127 7% 63%  
128 7% 57% Median
129 8% 50%  
130 7% 42%  
131 6% 35%  
132 6% 29%  
133 6% 23%  
134 4% 17%  
135 4% 13%  
136 3% 8%  
137 2% 5%  
138 2% 4%  
139 0.8% 2%  
140 0.6% 1.3%  
141 0.4% 0.7%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 0.8% 99.1%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 5% 91%  
86 5% 86%  
87 5% 81%  
88 6% 76%  
89 7% 70%  
90 7% 62%  
91 10% 55% Median
92 9% 46%  
93 9% 36%  
94 9% 27% Last Result
95 6% 18%  
96 4% 12%  
97 4% 9%  
98 2% 5%  
99 1.2% 3%  
100 0.9% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.2%  
102 0.3% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.4%  
67 1.2% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 4% 93%  
71 6% 89%  
72 7% 83%  
73 10% 76%  
74 9% 67%  
75 10% 57% Median
76 9% 47%  
77 9% 38%  
78 7% 29%  
79 7% 22%  
80 5% 15% Last Result
81 4% 10%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.3%  
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 2% 98.6%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 94%  
49 8% 91%  
50 8% 83%  
51 10% 75%  
52 15% 65%  
53 11% 50% Median
54 9% 39%  
55 10% 31%  
56 8% 21%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 1.1% 99.2%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 6% 92%  
46 9% 86% Last Result
47 11% 78%  
48 11% 66%  
49 11% 55% Median
50 10% 44%  
51 11% 34%  
52 8% 23%  
53 6% 15%  
54 4% 9%  
55 2% 5%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 0.6% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 490 100% 482–498 481–499 478–502 474–506
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 437 100% 429–446 427–448 425–450 421–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 411 100% 403–419 400–422 398–424 394–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 99.8% 365–382 362–384 361–386 356–390
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 87% 353–370 351–373 349–375 345–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 72% 350–367 348–369 345–371 341–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 336 0.2% 327–344 325–347 323–348 319–353
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 336 0.2% 327–345 325–347 323–348 319–352
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 290–306 287–309 286–311 282–315
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 282 0% 274–291 272–293 271–295 267–299
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 283 0% 275–291 272–293 270–295 266–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 204 0% 196–211 194–214 192–215 189–219
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 173–189 171–191 170–193 167–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0.1% 99.9%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0.1% 99.9%  
474 0.5% 99.8%  
475 0.2% 99.3%  
476 0.1% 99.1%  
477 0.5% 99.0%  
478 1.4% 98%  
479 1.4% 97%  
480 0.2% 96%  
481 2% 95%  
482 5% 94%  
483 3% 88%  
484 1.0% 85%  
485 3% 84%  
486 10% 81%  
487 7% 71%  
488 1.5% 65%  
489 6% 63% Median
490 12% 58%  
491 6% 45%  
492 2% 39%  
493 4% 37%  
494 12% 33%  
495 4% 21%  
496 1.0% 17%  
497 3% 16%  
498 5% 13%  
499 3% 8%  
500 0.3% 5%  
501 1.3% 5%  
502 2% 3%  
503 0.7% 2%  
504 0.1% 1.0%  
505 0.3% 0.9%  
506 0.3% 0.6%  
507 0.1% 0.2%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0.1% 0.1%  
511 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.2% 99.7%  
421 0.2% 99.5%  
422 0.3% 99.3%  
423 0.4% 99.0%  
424 0.7% 98.6%  
425 0.7% 98%  
426 1.0% 97%  
427 2% 96%  
428 2% 94%  
429 3% 93%  
430 4% 90%  
431 4% 86%  
432 5% 81%  
433 6% 76%  
434 7% 70%  
435 5% 63%  
436 8% 58% Median
437 5% 50%  
438 7% 45%  
439 5% 38%  
440 5% 33%  
441 4% 29%  
442 4% 24%  
443 3% 21%  
444 3% 17%  
445 2% 14%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 9%  
448 2% 7%  
449 1.2% 4%  
450 1.1% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.8% 2%  
453 0.3% 0.8%  
454 0.2% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.4% 99.5%  
396 0.3% 99.1%  
397 0.5% 98.7%  
398 1.2% 98%  
399 0.9% 97%  
400 1.1% 96%  
401 3% 95%  
402 2% 92%  
403 3% 90%  
404 3% 87%  
405 3% 84%  
406 6% 81%  
407 5% 75%  
408 6% 69%  
409 5% 64%  
410 5% 59% Median
411 5% 54%  
412 7% 49%  
413 6% 41%  
414 6% 36%  
415 5% 30%  
416 4% 25%  
417 5% 21%  
418 3% 16%  
419 4% 14%  
420 3% 10%  
421 2% 7%  
422 2% 6%  
423 0.9% 4%  
424 0.9% 3%  
425 0.7% 2%  
426 0.3% 1.1%  
427 0.4% 0.8%  
428 0.2% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.2% 99.7%  
357 0.2% 99.5%  
358 0.4% 99.3%  
359 0.5% 98.9%  
360 0.9% 98%  
361 1.2% 98%  
362 2% 96%  
363 1.4% 95%  
364 2% 93%  
365 3% 91%  
366 3% 88%  
367 5% 86%  
368 4% 81%  
369 5% 77%  
370 5% 72%  
371 5% 67%  
372 7% 62%  
373 6% 55% Median
374 5% 49%  
375 6% 44%  
376 7% 37%  
377 4% 31%  
378 6% 26%  
379 4% 21%  
380 3% 17%  
381 3% 13%  
382 3% 11%  
383 2% 8%  
384 2% 6%  
385 1.3% 4%  
386 1.0% 3%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.5% 1.5%  
389 0.3% 1.0%  
390 0.2% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.2% 99.6%  
346 0.3% 99.5%  
347 0.4% 99.2%  
348 0.6% 98.7%  
349 0.7% 98%  
350 1.0% 97%  
351 2% 96%  
352 2% 95%  
353 2% 92%  
354 3% 90%  
355 4% 87% Majority
356 4% 83%  
357 5% 79%  
358 5% 74%  
359 6% 69%  
360 5% 63%  
361 7% 57% Median
362 7% 51%  
363 5% 44%  
364 4% 39%  
365 7% 34%  
366 4% 27%  
367 5% 24%  
368 2% 19%  
369 4% 16%  
370 3% 13%  
371 2% 9%  
372 2% 7%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.1% 4%  
375 1.0% 3%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.6% 1.5%  
378 0.3% 0.9%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.4%  
343 0.4% 99.2%  
344 0.5% 98.8%  
345 0.9% 98%  
346 1.0% 97%  
347 1.1% 96%  
348 2% 95%  
349 2% 93%  
350 3% 91%  
351 3% 88%  
352 3% 85%  
353 5% 82%  
354 5% 77%  
355 6% 72% Majority
356 5% 66%  
357 5% 61% Median
358 6% 55%  
359 6% 49%  
360 7% 43%  
361 6% 36%  
362 5% 30%  
363 5% 25%  
364 4% 20%  
365 3% 16%  
366 3% 13%  
367 2% 11%  
368 3% 8%  
369 2% 6%  
370 1.0% 4%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.6% 2%  
374 0.3% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.2% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.6%  
320 0.3% 99.3%  
321 0.5% 99.0%  
322 0.6% 98.5%  
323 1.0% 98%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 2% 96%  
326 2% 94%  
327 3% 92%  
328 3% 89%  
329 3% 87%  
330 4% 83%  
331 6% 79%  
332 4% 74%  
333 7% 69%  
334 6% 63%  
335 5% 56% Median
336 6% 51%  
337 7% 45%  
338 5% 38%  
339 5% 33%  
340 5% 28%  
341 4% 23%  
342 5% 19%  
343 3% 14%  
344 3% 12%  
345 2% 9%  
346 1.4% 7%  
347 2% 5%  
348 1.2% 4%  
349 0.9% 2%  
350 0.5% 2%  
351 0.4% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2% Majority
356 0.1% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.3% 99.6%  
320 0.4% 99.4%  
321 0.5% 99.0%  
322 0.7% 98.5%  
323 0.8% 98%  
324 1.4% 97%  
325 1.2% 96%  
326 3% 94%  
327 3% 91%  
328 3% 88%  
329 5% 85%  
330 4% 81%  
331 3% 77%  
332 6% 74%  
333 6% 67%  
334 4% 62%  
335 6% 57% Median
336 5% 51%  
337 6% 47%  
338 7% 40%  
339 5% 34%  
340 5% 29%  
341 4% 24%  
342 3% 20%  
343 4% 16%  
344 2% 12%  
345 3% 10%  
346 2% 7%  
347 2% 5%  
348 1.2% 3%  
349 0.7% 2%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.4% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.2% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.5% 99.3%  
284 0.6% 98.8%  
285 0.7% 98%  
286 1.1% 98%  
287 2% 96%  
288 1.2% 94%  
289 3% 93%  
290 3% 90%  
291 3% 87%  
292 4% 84%  
293 3% 80%  
294 5% 76%  
295 6% 71%  
296 6% 65%  
297 4% 59%  
298 7% 55% Median
299 7% 47%  
300 6% 40%  
301 4% 34%  
302 6% 30%  
303 4% 24%  
304 5% 20%  
305 3% 15%  
306 3% 12%  
307 2% 9%  
308 2% 7%  
309 1.2% 5%  
310 1.2% 4%  
311 0.7% 3%  
312 0.8% 2%  
313 0.4% 1.2%  
314 0.2% 0.8%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.3% 99.5%  
268 0.4% 99.3%  
269 0.5% 98.8%  
270 0.8% 98%  
271 2% 98%  
272 1.3% 96%  
273 2% 95%  
274 3% 93%  
275 3% 90%  
276 4% 87%  
277 4% 83%  
278 4% 79%  
279 6% 75%  
280 7% 69%  
281 7% 63%  
282 7% 56% Median
283 5% 49%  
284 6% 44%  
285 6% 38%  
286 5% 32%  
287 4% 27%  
288 4% 22%  
289 5% 18%  
290 2% 14%  
291 2% 11%  
292 2% 9%  
293 2% 7%  
294 1.4% 5%  
295 1.0% 3%  
296 0.8% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.5% 1.1%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.3% 99.5%  
268 0.3% 99.1%  
269 0.6% 98.8%  
270 0.9% 98%  
271 1.1% 97%  
272 1.4% 96%  
273 2% 95%  
274 3% 93%  
275 3% 91%  
276 3% 87%  
277 4% 84%  
278 4% 80%  
279 6% 77%  
280 6% 70%  
281 5% 64%  
282 6% 59% Median
283 6% 52%  
284 6% 47%  
285 8% 41%  
286 4% 33%  
287 6% 28%  
288 5% 23%  
289 3% 18%  
290 3% 15%  
291 3% 12%  
292 3% 10%  
293 2% 6%  
294 1.3% 5%  
295 1.0% 3%  
296 0.8% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.4% 1.1%  
299 0.3% 0.7%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.3% 99.5%  
190 0.7% 99.3%  
191 0.6% 98.5%  
192 0.9% 98%  
193 1.5% 97%  
194 1.4% 96%  
195 3% 94%  
196 2% 91%  
197 3% 89%  
198 6% 86%  
199 4% 79%  
200 6% 76%  
201 6% 70%  
202 4% 64%  
203 7% 59% Median
204 8% 52%  
205 5% 45%  
206 9% 40%  
207 4% 31%  
208 5% 27%  
209 5% 22%  
210 3% 17%  
211 4% 14%  
212 3% 10%  
213 2% 7%  
214 2% 5%  
215 0.9% 3%  
216 0.8% 2%  
217 0.7% 2%  
218 0.2% 0.9%  
219 0.4% 0.7%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.2% 99.7%  
167 0.3% 99.5%  
168 0.5% 99.2%  
169 0.7% 98.7%  
170 1.3% 98%  
171 2% 97%  
172 2% 95%  
173 3% 93%  
174 3% 90%  
175 5% 87%  
176 5% 83%  
177 6% 78%  
178 5% 72%  
179 6% 67%  
180 6% 61%  
181 7% 55% Median
182 6% 48%  
183 6% 42%  
184 7% 36%  
185 5% 29%  
186 4% 23%  
187 4% 19%  
188 4% 15%  
189 3% 11%  
190 2% 8%  
191 2% 5%  
192 1.4% 4%  
193 1.0% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.4% 1.0%  
196 0.3% 0.6%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations