Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 13–14 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.2–24.4% 20.8–24.8% 20.4–25.2% 19.7–26.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.6–22.6% 19.2–23.1% 18.8–23.5% 18.1–24.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.1–17.2% 12.5–17.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.5% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 173 161–185 158–188 156–191 150–197
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 149–172 145–175 143–178 138–184
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 104–124 102–127 99–130 95–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–93 73–96 71–97 67–103
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 84 75–93 73–96 71–98 67–103
Die Linke 69 53 46–61 44–63 43–65 41–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 40 34–47 33–49 31–51 29–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.4% 99.1%  
153 0.3% 98.7%  
154 0.3% 98%  
155 0.4% 98%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 1.4% 97%  
158 1.4% 95%  
159 2% 94%  
160 1.1% 92%  
161 1.4% 91%  
162 2% 90%  
163 2% 88%  
164 3% 86%  
165 4% 83%  
166 4% 79%  
167 4% 75%  
168 3% 71%  
169 2% 68%  
170 3% 65%  
171 4% 62%  
172 7% 58%  
173 7% 51% Median
174 5% 44%  
175 3% 40%  
176 3% 37%  
177 3% 34%  
178 4% 31%  
179 4% 28%  
180 3% 24%  
181 3% 21%  
182 4% 17%  
183 2% 14%  
184 1.1% 12%  
185 1.2% 11%  
186 1.5% 9%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 6%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.3% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.3% 2%  
195 0.3% 1.3%  
196 0.3% 0.9%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.5%  
139 0.2% 99.3%  
140 0.3% 99.1%  
141 0.5% 98.8%  
142 0.7% 98%  
143 0.6% 98%  
144 1.0% 97%  
145 1.3% 96%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 1.3% 94%  
148 2% 92%  
149 2% 90%  
150 2% 88%  
151 2% 86%  
152 4% 84%  
153 3% 80%  
154 4% 77%  
155 5% 73%  
156 4% 69%  
157 4% 65%  
158 5% 61%  
159 5% 56%  
160 4% 51% Median
161 5% 47%  
162 4% 42%  
163 4% 38%  
164 3% 34%  
165 5% 31%  
166 3% 26%  
167 3% 23%  
168 3% 20%  
169 3% 17%  
170 2% 14%  
171 2% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 9%  
174 1.1% 7%  
175 1.3% 6%  
176 0.9% 5%  
177 0.7% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.6% 2%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 0.2% 1.2%  
182 0.2% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.7%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.1% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.6%  
96 0.3% 99.3%  
97 0.4% 99.0%  
98 0.6% 98.6%  
99 0.8% 98%  
100 0.9% 97%  
101 1.2% 96%  
102 1.3% 95%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 3% 90%  
106 3% 86%  
107 3% 83%  
108 3% 80%  
109 5% 77%  
110 4% 72%  
111 4% 68%  
112 4% 64%  
113 5% 59%  
114 7% 54% Median
115 4% 47%  
116 4% 43%  
117 7% 39%  
118 5% 32%  
119 3% 27%  
120 3% 23%  
121 3% 21%  
122 4% 18%  
123 2% 14%  
124 2% 12%  
125 2% 10%  
126 2% 8%  
127 1.5% 6%  
128 1.0% 5%  
129 0.9% 4%  
130 0.8% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.3% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.2%  
134 0.2% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.2%  
69 0.3% 98.9%  
70 0.5% 98.6%  
71 1.1% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 93%  
75 3% 91%  
76 2% 88%  
77 3% 85%  
78 3% 83%  
79 5% 80%  
80 7% 76%  
81 8% 68%  
82 6% 60%  
83 4% 54% Median
84 4% 50%  
85 4% 46%  
86 5% 42%  
87 4% 37%  
88 8% 33%  
89 6% 25%  
90 4% 19%  
91 2% 15%  
92 2% 12%  
93 2% 11%  
94 2% 9% Last Result
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.3% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.4%  
101 0.3% 1.1%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.4% 99.4%  
69 0.6% 99.0%  
70 0.7% 98%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 1.4% 97%  
73 2% 95%  
74 2% 93%  
75 2% 91%  
76 3% 89%  
77 4% 86%  
78 5% 82%  
79 4% 77%  
80 5% 74% Last Result
81 7% 69%  
82 6% 62%  
83 5% 56%  
84 5% 51% Median
85 7% 46%  
86 6% 40%  
87 5% 33%  
88 3% 28%  
89 5% 25%  
90 3% 20%  
91 3% 17%  
92 2% 13%  
93 3% 11%  
94 2% 9%  
95 2% 7%  
96 1.1% 5%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.9% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.7% 99.5%  
42 0.8% 98.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 2% 96%  
45 2% 94%  
46 3% 92%  
47 2% 89%  
48 3% 87%  
49 7% 84%  
50 3% 78%  
51 14% 75%  
52 5% 60%  
53 11% 55% Median
54 5% 44%  
55 5% 39%  
56 5% 34%  
57 4% 29%  
58 4% 25%  
59 6% 21%  
60 3% 15%  
61 5% 12%  
62 2% 7%  
63 2% 6%  
64 0.8% 4%  
65 0.6% 3%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.2%  
69 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.2% 99.8%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 0.6% 99.2%  
31 1.3% 98.6%  
32 2% 97%  
33 2% 96%  
34 3% 93%  
35 4% 90%  
36 5% 85%  
37 7% 80%  
38 8% 73%  
39 7% 65%  
40 8% 58% Median
41 8% 50%  
42 7% 42%  
43 7% 34%  
44 6% 28%  
45 5% 22%  
46 4% 17% Last Result
47 4% 13%  
48 2% 9%  
49 2% 6%  
50 1.3% 4%  
51 1.2% 3%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.3%  
54 0.3% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 488 100% 475–500 471–503 468–507 462–513
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 458 100% 444–471 440–474 437–478 430–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 412 100% 398–425 394–429 391–432 384–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 380 99.5% 368–395 363–399 360–402 353–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 374 96% 360–387 356–391 352–394 346–402
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 61% 344–372 340–376 337–379 331–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 329 0.5% 314–341 310–346 307–349 300–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 328 0.7% 314–341 310–345 307–349 300–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 284–311 280–315 277–319 270–325
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 298 0% 284–311 280–315 277–318 270–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 274 0% 261–287 257–291 254–295 248–302
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 198 0% 186–210 182–214 180–217 174–223
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 156–179 153–183 150–186 144–192

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0.1% 99.8%  
460 0.1% 99.7%  
461 0.1% 99.7%  
462 0.1% 99.5%  
463 0.2% 99.4%  
464 0.2% 99.3%  
465 0.3% 99.0%  
466 0.4% 98.7% Last Result
467 0.7% 98%  
468 0.6% 98%  
469 0.5% 97%  
470 0.8% 97%  
471 0.8% 96%  
472 0.9% 95%  
473 1.4% 94%  
474 1.4% 93%  
475 2% 91%  
476 2% 89%  
477 4% 88%  
478 2% 84%  
479 3% 82%  
480 3% 79%  
481 2% 76%  
482 4% 74%  
483 3% 70%  
484 3% 67%  
485 4% 64%  
486 3% 60%  
487 4% 57% Median
488 4% 53%  
489 4% 49%  
490 6% 45%  
491 6% 39%  
492 3% 33%  
493 3% 30%  
494 3% 27%  
495 3% 24%  
496 3% 22%  
497 2% 19%  
498 2% 17%  
499 3% 15%  
500 2% 12%  
501 2% 10%  
502 2% 8%  
503 2% 7%  
504 0.7% 5%  
505 0.6% 4%  
506 0.7% 3%  
507 0.4% 3%  
508 0.4% 2%  
509 0.6% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.4%  
511 0.3% 1.1%  
512 0.2% 0.8%  
513 0.1% 0.6%  
514 0.1% 0.5%  
515 0.1% 0.4%  
516 0.1% 0.3%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.2%  
520 0% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0.1%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0.1%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.2% 99.6%  
431 0.1% 99.5%  
432 0.1% 99.3%  
433 0.2% 99.2%  
434 0.3% 99.0%  
435 0.3% 98.6%  
436 0.4% 98%  
437 0.5% 98%  
438 0.7% 97%  
439 1.0% 97%  
440 1.1% 96%  
441 1.2% 95%  
442 1.0% 94%  
443 1.3% 93%  
444 2% 91%  
445 1.2% 90%  
446 2% 88%  
447 3% 86%  
448 3% 83%  
449 2% 80%  
450 5% 78%  
451 3% 74%  
452 2% 70%  
453 3% 68%  
454 5% 66%  
455 3% 60%  
456 3% 58%  
457 4% 55% Median
458 5% 51%  
459 2% 46%  
460 5% 43%  
461 4% 38%  
462 4% 34%  
463 3% 30%  
464 3% 27%  
465 2% 24%  
466 3% 22%  
467 3% 19%  
468 3% 17%  
469 2% 14%  
470 2% 12%  
471 2% 10%  
472 1.1% 8%  
473 0.7% 7%  
474 1.3% 6%  
475 0.9% 5%  
476 0.8% 4%  
477 0.6% 3%  
478 0.6% 3%  
479 0.4% 2%  
480 0.3% 2%  
481 0.2% 1.2%  
482 0.3% 1.0%  
483 0.1% 0.7%  
484 0.1% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.5%  
486 0.1% 0.4%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.2%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.5%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.2% 99.1%  
388 0.3% 98.9%  
389 0.4% 98.6%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.8% 98%  
392 0.6% 97%  
393 0.8% 96%  
394 1.0% 96%  
395 1.2% 95%  
396 1.1% 94%  
397 1.2% 92%  
398 2% 91%  
399 2% 89%  
400 2% 87%  
401 2% 86%  
402 2% 83%  
403 3% 81%  
404 2% 78%  
405 4% 76%  
406 3% 72%  
407 3% 69%  
408 3% 65%  
409 5% 62%  
410 4% 57%  
411 3% 54% Median
412 3% 50%  
413 3% 47%  
414 4% 44%  
415 3% 39%  
416 5% 37%  
417 2% 31%  
418 4% 29%  
419 3% 25%  
420 1.5% 22%  
421 4% 21%  
422 2% 17%  
423 2% 15%  
424 2% 12%  
425 2% 11%  
426 1.2% 9%  
427 1.0% 8%  
428 1.0% 7%  
429 1.2% 6%  
430 0.8% 4%  
431 0.5% 4%  
432 0.7% 3%  
433 0.4% 2%  
434 0.4% 2%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.2% 1.2%  
437 0.3% 1.0%  
438 0.1% 0.7%  
439 0.1% 0.6%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.2% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0% 99.5%  
355 0.1% 99.5% Majority
356 0.3% 99.4%  
357 0.4% 99.1%  
358 0.5% 98.7%  
359 0.3% 98%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 0.9% 97%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 1.1% 96%  
364 0.5% 95%  
365 0.3% 94%  
366 0.7% 94%  
367 2% 93%  
368 3% 91%  
369 3% 88%  
370 2% 85%  
371 1.2% 84%  
372 4% 82%  
373 2% 79%  
374 2% 76%  
375 2% 74%  
376 1.3% 71%  
377 2% 70%  
378 3% 68%  
379 10% 65%  
380 7% 55% Median
381 2% 48%  
382 2% 46%  
383 2% 44%  
384 3% 42%  
385 4% 39%  
386 3% 35%  
387 1.5% 32%  
388 3% 31%  
389 4% 28%  
390 5% 23%  
391 4% 18%  
392 1.3% 14%  
393 0.6% 13%  
394 0.8% 12%  
395 1.5% 11%  
396 2% 10%  
397 2% 8%  
398 0.7% 6%  
399 0.6% 5%  
400 1.1% 5%  
401 1.1% 4%  
402 0.5% 3%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.1% 2%  
405 0.2% 2%  
406 0.3% 2%  
407 0.5% 1.2%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.6%  
347 0.2% 99.5%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.3% 99.1%  
350 0.3% 98.8%  
351 0.5% 98%  
352 0.6% 98%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 0.6% 97%  
355 1.0% 96% Majority
356 1.1% 95%  
357 1.0% 94%  
358 1.4% 93%  
359 1.2% 92%  
360 1.3% 91%  
361 3% 89%  
362 2% 87%  
363 3% 85%  
364 2% 82%  
365 2% 80%  
366 3% 78%  
367 3% 75%  
368 3% 72%  
369 6% 69%  
370 3% 64%  
371 3% 61%  
372 3% 58%  
373 3% 55% Median
374 5% 52%  
375 4% 46%  
376 4% 43%  
377 3% 38%  
378 3% 36%  
379 3% 33%  
380 4% 30%  
381 4% 26%  
382 3% 22%  
383 2% 20%  
384 2% 18%  
385 3% 16%  
386 2% 13%  
387 1.2% 11%  
388 2% 9%  
389 1.0% 8%  
390 0.9% 7%  
391 1.1% 6%  
392 1.0% 5%  
393 0.9% 4%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.4%  
399 0.2% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.1% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.5%  
332 0.2% 99.3%  
333 0.2% 99.1%  
334 0.3% 98.9%  
335 0.3% 98.6%  
336 0.3% 98%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.6% 97%  
339 0.8% 97%  
340 0.8% 96%  
341 1.4% 95%  
342 1.2% 94%  
343 2% 92%  
344 1.0% 91%  
345 2% 90%  
346 2% 88%  
347 2% 86%  
348 2% 85%  
349 4% 82%  
350 3% 79%  
351 3% 76%  
352 3% 73%  
353 4% 69%  
354 4% 65%  
355 2% 61% Majority
356 3% 59%  
357 3% 56%  
358 5% 53% Median
359 3% 48%  
360 4% 45%  
361 4% 42%  
362 4% 38%  
363 3% 34%  
364 5% 30%  
365 2% 26%  
366 2% 24%  
367 3% 21%  
368 2% 18%  
369 2% 17%  
370 2% 15%  
371 2% 13%  
372 2% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 1.0% 7%  
375 1.0% 6%  
376 0.8% 5%  
377 0.8% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.5%  
302 0.5% 99.3%  
303 0.3% 98.8%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.5% 98%  
308 1.1% 97%  
309 1.1% 96%  
310 0.6% 95%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 2% 94%  
313 2% 92%  
314 1.5% 90%  
315 0.8% 89%  
316 0.6% 88%  
317 1.3% 87%  
318 4% 86%  
319 5% 82%  
320 4% 77%  
321 3% 72%  
322 1.5% 69%  
323 3% 68%  
324 4% 65%  
325 3% 61%  
326 2% 58%  
327 2% 56% Median
328 2% 54%  
329 7% 52%  
330 10% 45%  
331 3% 35%  
332 2% 32%  
333 1.3% 30%  
334 2% 29%  
335 2% 26%  
336 2% 24%  
337 4% 21%  
338 1.2% 18%  
339 2% 16%  
340 3% 15%  
341 3% 12%  
342 2% 9%  
343 0.7% 7%  
344 0.3% 6%  
345 0.5% 6%  
346 1.1% 5%  
347 0.9% 4%  
348 0.9% 3%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.4% 1.3%  
353 0.3% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.2% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0.3% 99.0%  
304 0.2% 98.8%  
305 0.4% 98.6%  
306 0.6% 98%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 0.9% 97%  
309 0.7% 96%  
310 0.7% 96%  
311 1.2% 95%  
312 1.4% 94%  
313 1.0% 92%  
314 2% 91%  
315 2% 89%  
316 2% 87%  
317 2% 85%  
318 3% 83%  
319 2% 80%  
320 3% 79%  
321 4% 76%  
322 3% 72%  
323 3% 69%  
324 4% 66%  
325 4% 63%  
326 3% 58%  
327 4% 55% Median
328 4% 51%  
329 3% 48%  
330 6% 44%  
331 3% 39%  
332 2% 36%  
333 4% 33%  
334 4% 29%  
335 1.4% 26%  
336 4% 24%  
337 3% 20%  
338 2% 18%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 1.4% 11%  
342 2% 10%  
343 1.1% 8%  
344 1.0% 7%  
345 1.2% 6%  
346 1.1% 5%  
347 0.5% 4%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.7% 3%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.4% 1.4%  
353 0.1% 1.1%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.2% 0.7% Majority
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.3% 99.2%  
274 0.3% 98.9%  
275 0.3% 98.6%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 1.1% 98%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 0.8% 96%  
280 1.1% 95%  
281 1.1% 94%  
282 1.0% 93%  
283 1.3% 92%  
284 2% 91%  
285 1.4% 89%  
286 2% 87%  
287 2% 85%  
288 3% 83%  
289 2% 80%  
290 3% 78%  
291 4% 75%  
292 3% 71%  
293 3% 69%  
294 6% 66%  
295 3% 60%  
296 3% 56% Median
297 4% 54%  
298 5% 50%  
299 3% 45%  
300 3% 42%  
301 4% 39%  
302 4% 35%  
303 2% 31%  
304 4% 29%  
305 3% 25%  
306 2% 22%  
307 2% 20%  
308 4% 18%  
309 2% 14%  
310 1.4% 12%  
311 1.4% 11%  
312 2% 9%  
313 0.8% 7%  
314 1.2% 7%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0.5% 4%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 99.2%  
274 0.3% 98.9%  
275 0.4% 98.7%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 1.0% 97%  
279 0.6% 96%  
280 0.9% 95%  
281 1.1% 95%  
282 1.0% 93%  
283 2% 92%  
284 2% 91%  
285 2% 89%  
286 1.4% 86%  
287 2% 85%  
288 2% 83%  
289 2% 80%  
290 3% 78%  
291 4% 75%  
292 4% 72%  
293 4% 67%  
294 3% 63%  
295 3% 60%  
296 3% 57%  
297 3% 54% Median
298 2% 51%  
299 6% 48%  
300 5% 43%  
301 2% 37%  
302 6% 35%  
303 2% 29%  
304 2% 27%  
305 2% 25%  
306 2% 23%  
307 3% 21%  
308 2% 18%  
309 4% 16%  
310 2% 12%  
311 1.3% 10%  
312 1.4% 9%  
313 0.9% 7%  
314 1.0% 6%  
315 1.0% 5%  
316 0.9% 4%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.3% 1.3%  
323 0.1% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.8%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.4%  
250 0.3% 99.2%  
251 0.4% 98.9%  
252 0.3% 98.6%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 0.6% 98%  
255 0.7% 97%  
256 0.9% 96%  
257 1.0% 95%  
258 1.4% 94%  
259 0.7% 93%  
260 2% 92%  
261 1.1% 91%  
262 2% 89%  
263 2% 87%  
264 3% 85%  
265 2% 82%  
266 3% 80%  
267 4% 77%  
268 3% 73%  
269 4% 70%  
270 3% 66%  
271 4% 63%  
272 2% 59%  
273 5% 58%  
274 3% 53% Median
275 3% 50%  
276 3% 47%  
277 7% 44%  
278 5% 37%  
279 3% 32%  
280 3% 29%  
281 2% 26%  
282 3% 24%  
283 2% 21%  
284 3% 19%  
285 2% 17%  
286 3% 15%  
287 2% 12%  
288 2% 10%  
289 0.8% 8%  
290 1.4% 7%  
291 1.2% 6%  
292 0.5% 5%  
293 0.8% 4%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.6% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.4% 2%  
298 0.3% 1.3%  
299 0.3% 1.0%  
300 0.1% 0.7%  
301 0.1% 0.6%  
302 0.1% 0.5%  
303 0.1% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.2% 99.6%  
175 0.2% 99.4%  
176 0.3% 99.2%  
177 0.4% 98.9%  
178 0.3% 98.5%  
179 0.6% 98%  
180 0.8% 98%  
181 0.8% 97%  
182 1.1% 96%  
183 0.9% 95%  
184 2% 94%  
185 1.5% 92%  
186 2% 91%  
187 3% 89%  
188 2% 86%  
189 3% 84%  
190 3% 82%  
191 3% 79%  
192 4% 76%  
193 3% 72%  
194 5% 69%  
195 4% 64%  
196 4% 60%  
197 4% 56%  
198 4% 52% Median
199 5% 48%  
200 4% 43%  
201 4% 39%  
202 4% 36%  
203 4% 32%  
204 3% 28%  
205 3% 24%  
206 2% 21%  
207 3% 19%  
208 2% 16%  
209 2% 14%  
210 2% 11%  
211 2% 10%  
212 2% 8%  
213 0.9% 7%  
214 1.1% 6%  
215 1.2% 5%  
216 0.6% 3%  
217 0.5% 3%  
218 0.3% 2%  
219 0.4% 2%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.2% 1.0%  
222 0.2% 0.9%  
223 0.2% 0.7%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0.1% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.7%  
144 0.1% 99.6%  
145 0.2% 99.5%  
146 0.1% 99.3%  
147 0.5% 99.2%  
148 0.4% 98.7%  
149 0.5% 98%  
150 0.6% 98%  
151 0.8% 97%  
152 0.8% 96%  
153 1.2% 96%  
154 2% 94%  
155 1.1% 93%  
156 2% 91%  
157 2% 89%  
158 3% 87%  
159 2% 84%  
160 4% 82%  
161 2% 78%  
162 5% 76%  
163 2% 71%  
164 5% 68%  
165 4% 63%  
166 3% 59%  
167 5% 56% Median
168 6% 51%  
169 4% 45%  
170 3% 41%  
171 6% 38%  
172 2% 32%  
173 4% 29%  
174 2% 25%  
175 5% 24%  
176 2% 19%  
177 4% 17%  
178 2% 14%  
179 3% 12%  
180 1.2% 10%  
181 2% 8%  
182 1.5% 7%  
183 1.2% 5%  
184 0.7% 4%  
185 0.8% 3%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.2% 2%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.1% 1.2%  
190 0.4% 1.1%  
191 0.1% 0.7%  
192 0.3% 0.6%  
193 0% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations