Opinion Poll by Kantar, 8–14 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 23.6% 22.2–25.1% 21.8–25.5% 21.5–25.9% 20.8–26.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 22.0% 20.6–23.4% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–24.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.3–17.0% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.4% 4.7–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.4–6.7% 4.1–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 177 167–188 164–191 161–194 156–200
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 165 155–176 152–179 150–182 145–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 104–122 102–125 100–127 96–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–91 73–93 71–96 68–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 68 60–75 59–77 57–79 54–84
Die Linke 69 59 53–67 52–70 51–72 47–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 36–47 34–49 33–51 31–53

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.5%  
158 0.3% 99.3%  
159 0.3% 99.0%  
160 0.7% 98.7%  
161 0.8% 98%  
162 0.9% 97%  
163 0.8% 96%  
164 1.2% 96%  
165 1.3% 94%  
166 2% 93%  
167 3% 91%  
168 3% 89%  
169 3% 86%  
170 3% 83%  
171 5% 81%  
172 5% 76%  
173 5% 72%  
174 4% 67%  
175 4% 63%  
176 4% 59%  
177 5% 55% Median
178 5% 50%  
179 6% 45%  
180 4% 39%  
181 4% 35%  
182 4% 31%  
183 4% 28%  
184 4% 24%  
185 2% 19%  
186 3% 17%  
187 2% 14%  
188 2% 12%  
189 2% 10%  
190 2% 8%  
191 1.2% 6%  
192 0.7% 5%  
193 0.7% 4%  
194 0.9% 3%  
195 0.5% 2%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.3% 1.2%  
198 0.2% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.2% 99.4%  
147 0.4% 99.2%  
148 0.4% 98.8%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 0.9% 98%  
151 1.0% 97%  
152 1.3% 96%  
153 1.4% 95%  
154 2% 93%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 89%  
157 3% 86%  
158 4% 84%  
159 3% 80%  
160 3% 76%  
161 5% 73%  
162 4% 68%  
163 3% 64%  
164 8% 60%  
165 4% 53% Median
166 5% 48%  
167 5% 44%  
168 4% 39%  
169 4% 35%  
170 5% 32%  
171 4% 27%  
172 3% 22%  
173 3% 19%  
174 4% 16%  
175 2% 13%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 7%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 1.0% 5%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.4%  
185 0.3% 1.0%  
186 0.2% 0.7%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.4% 99.3%  
98 0.4% 98.9%  
99 0.4% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.4% 97%  
102 1.5% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 3% 92%  
105 3% 89%  
106 3% 86%  
107 4% 83%  
108 5% 79%  
109 4% 74%  
110 4% 70%  
111 5% 67%  
112 7% 61%  
113 4% 54%  
114 6% 50% Median
115 8% 44%  
116 5% 37%  
117 3% 32%  
118 7% 29%  
119 5% 22%  
120 2% 17%  
121 2% 15%  
122 3% 12%  
123 2% 9%  
124 1.1% 8%  
125 2% 7%  
126 2% 5%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.2%  
131 0.1% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.7% 98.9%  
71 0.9% 98%  
72 1.3% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 3% 89%  
77 5% 86%  
78 5% 81%  
79 5% 76%  
80 5% 71%  
81 6% 66%  
82 8% 60%  
83 5% 51% Median
84 7% 46%  
85 7% 39%  
86 5% 32%  
87 5% 27%  
88 4% 23%  
89 4% 18%  
90 3% 15%  
91 3% 12%  
92 2% 9%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.4% 5% Last Result
95 1.0% 4%  
96 0.9% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.4%  
56 0.6% 99.0%  
57 1.2% 98%  
58 1.2% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 94%  
61 3% 90%  
62 4% 87%  
63 5% 82%  
64 6% 77%  
65 5% 71%  
66 7% 66%  
67 6% 59%  
68 6% 53% Median
69 7% 47%  
70 8% 40%  
71 5% 32%  
72 6% 28%  
73 5% 22%  
74 5% 16%  
75 2% 12%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.4% 5%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.8% 2% Last Result
81 0.4% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.1% 99.6%  
48 0.1% 99.4%  
49 0.1% 99.4%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 2% 98.7%  
52 5% 96%  
53 4% 91%  
54 2% 87%  
55 0.5% 85%  
56 0.7% 84%  
57 5% 84%  
58 12% 79%  
59 19% 67% Median
60 9% 49%  
61 3% 39%  
62 0.5% 36%  
63 0.9% 36%  
64 5% 35%  
65 10% 30%  
66 10% 20%  
67 4% 10%  
68 0.7% 6%  
69 0.1% 5% Last Result
70 0.4% 5%  
71 1.0% 5%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.6%  
32 1.2% 98.9%  
33 2% 98%  
34 2% 96%  
35 2% 94%  
36 5% 92%  
37 7% 87%  
38 9% 80%  
39 9% 71%  
40 9% 62%  
41 7% 53% Median
42 6% 46%  
43 9% 40%  
44 9% 31%  
45 7% 23%  
46 5% 16% Last Result
47 3% 11%  
48 2% 8%  
49 2% 6%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 3%  
52 0.7% 1.5%  
53 0.3% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 498 100% 486–509 483–512 480–515 475–520
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 452 100% 440–464 437–467 434–470 428–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 400 100% 388–412 384–416 381–418 375–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 384 99.9% 372–397 369–400 366–403 360–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 94% 357–382 354–385 351–388 345–394
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 347 21% 334–359 331–363 328–365 322–372
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 6% 327–352 324–355 321–358 315–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 332 1.0% 320–344 316–348 313–351 307–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 302 0% 290–314 287–318 283–321 277–327
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 286 0% 274–299 271–302 268–305 263–311
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 278 0% 267–291 264–295 261–297 255–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 171–192 168–195 165–198 160–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 163–184 160–188 158–190 153–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 99.9%  
470 0% 99.9%  
471 0% 99.9%  
472 0.1% 99.8%  
473 0.1% 99.7%  
474 0.1% 99.6%  
475 0.2% 99.5%  
476 0.2% 99.4%  
477 0.3% 99.1%  
478 0.5% 98.8%  
479 0.3% 98%  
480 0.9% 98%  
481 0.6% 97%  
482 1.3% 97%  
483 0.8% 95%  
484 1.5% 94%  
485 1.5% 93%  
486 2% 92%  
487 2% 89%  
488 2% 87%  
489 3% 85%  
490 3% 82%  
491 4% 79%  
492 3% 75%  
493 5% 72%  
494 4% 68%  
495 4% 63%  
496 5% 59%  
497 2% 54% Median
498 7% 52%  
499 3% 45%  
500 5% 42%  
501 4% 37%  
502 5% 33%  
503 4% 28%  
504 3% 24%  
505 3% 21%  
506 2% 18%  
507 4% 16%  
508 2% 12%  
509 2% 11%  
510 2% 9%  
511 1.3% 7%  
512 1.3% 6%  
513 0.8% 4%  
514 1.1% 4%  
515 0.4% 3%  
516 0.8% 2%  
517 0.3% 1.4%  
518 0.4% 1.1%  
519 0.2% 0.7%  
520 0.2% 0.6%  
521 0.1% 0.4%  
522 0.1% 0.3%  
523 0.1% 0.2%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0.1%  
526 0% 0.1%  
527 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.7%  
428 0.2% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.3% 99.2%  
431 0.3% 98.9%  
432 0.3% 98.6%  
433 0.4% 98%  
434 0.6% 98%  
435 1.0% 97%  
436 1.0% 96%  
437 0.9% 95%  
438 0.8% 94%  
439 2% 94%  
440 1.5% 91%  
441 3% 90%  
442 2% 87%  
443 3% 84%  
444 2% 81%  
445 3% 79%  
446 4% 76%  
447 4% 72%  
448 5% 69%  
449 2% 64%  
450 3% 61%  
451 4% 58% Median
452 4% 54%  
453 4% 50%  
454 6% 46%  
455 3% 40%  
456 4% 37%  
457 3% 33%  
458 6% 29%  
459 3% 23%  
460 3% 20%  
461 2% 17%  
462 2% 15%  
463 3% 13%  
464 2% 10%  
465 2% 8%  
466 0.9% 7%  
467 1.1% 6%  
468 0.8% 5%  
469 0.9% 4%  
470 0.8% 3%  
471 0.7% 2%  
472 0.2% 2%  
473 0.3% 1.4%  
474 0.3% 1.1%  
475 0.3% 0.8%  
476 0.2% 0.5%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.5%  
377 0.2% 99.3%  
378 0.3% 99.1%  
379 0.4% 98.8%  
380 0.4% 98%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.9% 97%  
383 0.6% 97%  
384 1.0% 96%  
385 1.4% 95%  
386 1.3% 93%  
387 2% 92%  
388 2% 91%  
389 2% 88%  
390 2% 86%  
391 4% 84%  
392 2% 80%  
393 3% 78%  
394 4% 75%  
395 3% 71%  
396 4% 68%  
397 3% 64%  
398 3% 60%  
399 5% 57%  
400 4% 53% Median
401 4% 49%  
402 5% 45%  
403 3% 40%  
404 5% 37%  
405 3% 32%  
406 3% 29%  
407 4% 26%  
408 4% 22%  
409 2% 19%  
410 2% 16%  
411 3% 14%  
412 2% 11%  
413 2% 9%  
414 1.1% 8%  
415 1.4% 6%  
416 1.1% 5%  
417 0.8% 4%  
418 0.8% 3%  
419 0.6% 2%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.5% 2%  
422 0.2% 1.1%  
423 0.2% 0.8%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.3%  
362 0.2% 99.1%  
363 0.3% 98.9%  
364 0.5% 98.5%  
365 0.5% 98%  
366 0.5% 98%  
367 1.0% 97%  
368 1.0% 96%  
369 1.1% 95%  
370 2% 94%  
371 2% 92%  
372 2% 91%  
373 2% 89%  
374 2% 86%  
375 3% 84%  
376 3% 82%  
377 4% 79%  
378 3% 75%  
379 3% 72%  
380 4% 68%  
381 4% 64%  
382 4% 61%  
383 3% 57% Median
384 5% 54%  
385 5% 49%  
386 4% 44%  
387 3% 40%  
388 4% 37%  
389 4% 33%  
390 3% 29%  
391 3% 26%  
392 3% 23%  
393 4% 20%  
394 2% 16%  
395 2% 14%  
396 2% 12%  
397 2% 10%  
398 1.3% 8%  
399 2% 7%  
400 1.1% 5%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 0.8% 4%  
403 0.5% 3%  
404 0.5% 2%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.4%  
407 0.2% 1.0%  
408 0.2% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.4%  
347 0.2% 99.2%  
348 0.3% 99.0%  
349 0.5% 98.7%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.7% 98%  
352 0.5% 97%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 1.4% 96%  
355 1.1% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 2% 91%  
358 2% 90%  
359 2% 87%  
360 3% 86%  
361 3% 83%  
362 3% 80%  
363 3% 77%  
364 3% 74%  
365 4% 71%  
366 4% 67%  
367 4% 63%  
368 4% 59%  
369 4% 54% Median
370 4% 50%  
371 4% 46%  
372 4% 42%  
373 4% 38%  
374 4% 34%  
375 3% 31%  
376 4% 28%  
377 2% 24%  
378 3% 22%  
379 4% 19%  
380 2% 15%  
381 2% 13%  
382 1.5% 11%  
383 2% 9%  
384 0.9% 7%  
385 2% 6%  
386 0.8% 5%  
387 0.9% 4%  
388 0.8% 3%  
389 0.5% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.4% 1.5%  
392 0.2% 1.1%  
393 0.3% 0.9%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.2% 99.3%  
324 0.2% 99.2%  
325 0.2% 98.9%  
326 0.3% 98.7%  
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 0.7% 97%  
330 1.0% 97%  
331 1.0% 96%  
332 2% 95%  
333 2% 93%  
334 2% 91%  
335 3% 90%  
336 2% 87%  
337 2% 85%  
338 2% 83%  
339 4% 81%  
340 2% 77%  
341 3% 75%  
342 3% 72%  
343 4% 68%  
344 4% 64%  
345 4% 61%  
346 5% 57%  
347 4% 52% Median
348 6% 48%  
349 5% 41%  
350 4% 36%  
351 3% 33%  
352 3% 29%  
353 3% 26%  
354 3% 24%  
355 2% 21% Majority
356 2% 19%  
357 3% 16%  
358 2% 14%  
359 3% 12%  
360 2% 9%  
361 1.5% 8%  
362 1.4% 6%  
363 1.1% 5%  
364 0.8% 4%  
365 0.9% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.4% 1.4%  
369 0.2% 1.1%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.4%  
317 0.2% 99.1%  
318 0.4% 98.9%  
319 0.4% 98.5%  
320 0.5% 98%  
321 0.8% 98%  
322 0.9% 97%  
323 0.8% 96%  
324 2% 95%  
325 0.9% 94%  
326 2% 93%  
327 1.5% 91%  
328 2% 89%  
329 2% 87%  
330 4% 85%  
331 3% 81%  
332 2% 78%  
333 4% 76%  
334 3% 72%  
335 4% 69%  
336 4% 66%  
337 4% 62%  
338 4% 58% Median
339 4% 54%  
340 4% 50%  
341 4% 46%  
342 4% 41%  
343 4% 37%  
344 4% 33%  
345 3% 29%  
346 3% 26%  
347 3% 23%  
348 3% 20%  
349 3% 17%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 13%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 1.1% 7%  
355 1.4% 6% Majority
356 0.9% 4%  
357 0.5% 3%  
358 0.7% 3%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.3%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.3%  
310 0.3% 99.1%  
311 0.4% 98.8%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.5% 98%  
314 0.6% 97%  
315 0.9% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 1.0% 95%  
318 2% 94%  
319 2% 92%  
320 2% 91%  
321 2% 88%  
322 3% 86%  
323 2% 84%  
324 3% 82%  
325 4% 79%  
326 3% 75%  
327 4% 72%  
328 4% 69%  
329 4% 64%  
330 4% 61%  
331 5% 56%  
332 4% 51% Median
333 3% 47%  
334 4% 44%  
335 4% 40%  
336 3% 36%  
337 3% 33%  
338 5% 29%  
339 2% 25%  
340 3% 22%  
341 2% 19%  
342 4% 17%  
343 2% 13%  
344 2% 11%  
345 1.1% 9%  
346 2% 8%  
347 1.3% 7%  
348 1.0% 5%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.6% 4%  
351 1.1% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.4% 1.4%  
355 0.3% 1.0% Majority
356 0.1% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.3% 98.9%  
281 0.3% 98.6%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.5% 97%  
285 0.9% 97%  
286 0.7% 96%  
287 1.4% 95%  
288 2% 94%  
289 2% 92%  
290 2% 90%  
291 2% 88%  
292 3% 86%  
293 3% 83%  
294 4% 80%  
295 3% 76%  
296 4% 73%  
297 3% 69%  
298 2% 67%  
299 4% 64%  
300 4% 61%  
301 4% 56% Median
302 6% 52%  
303 4% 47%  
304 5% 43%  
305 3% 38%  
306 4% 35%  
307 5% 30%  
308 2% 25%  
309 3% 23%  
310 3% 20%  
311 2% 17%  
312 2% 15%  
313 1.4% 13%  
314 2% 12%  
315 2% 10%  
316 2% 8%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.9% 4%  
320 0.4% 3%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.3%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.2% 99.5%  
264 0.3% 99.3%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.4% 98.8%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.6% 97%  
270 1.0% 97%  
271 1.0% 96%  
272 2% 95%  
273 1.5% 93%  
274 2% 91%  
275 2% 90%  
276 2% 88%  
277 2% 85%  
278 3% 83%  
279 3% 80%  
280 3% 77%  
281 3% 74%  
282 4% 71%  
283 3% 67%  
284 5% 64%  
285 4% 59%  
286 5% 55% Median
287 4% 50%  
288 4% 46%  
289 4% 43%  
290 4% 38%  
291 4% 34%  
292 3% 31%  
293 2% 27%  
294 4% 25%  
295 3% 21%  
296 4% 18%  
297 2% 14%  
298 2% 12%  
299 2% 10%  
300 1.5% 9%  
301 1.3% 7%  
302 1.2% 6%  
303 0.8% 5%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.7% 3%  
306 0.5% 2%  
307 0.5% 2%  
308 0.3% 1.3%  
309 0.2% 1.0%  
310 0.3% 0.8%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.3%  
257 0.3% 99.1%  
258 0.4% 98.8%  
259 0.4% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.7% 98%  
262 0.6% 97%  
263 1.0% 96%  
264 2% 95%  
265 2% 94%  
266 2% 92%  
267 2% 90%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 84%  
271 2% 81%  
272 3% 79%  
273 4% 76%  
274 3% 72%  
275 5% 69%  
276 4% 64%  
277 6% 60%  
278 4% 54%  
279 3% 50% Median
280 4% 47%  
281 3% 42%  
282 5% 40%  
283 5% 35%  
284 3% 30%  
285 3% 27%  
286 4% 24%  
287 3% 20%  
288 2% 17%  
289 2% 14%  
290 2% 12%  
291 2% 11%  
292 1.2% 9%  
293 1.5% 8%  
294 1.0% 6%  
295 1.2% 5%  
296 1.0% 4%  
297 0.7% 3%  
298 0.4% 2%  
299 0.6% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.3%  
301 0.2% 1.0%  
302 0.2% 0.8%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.4%  
162 0.3% 99.2%  
163 0.5% 98.8%  
164 0.5% 98%  
165 0.8% 98%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 1.1% 96%  
168 1.0% 95%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 92%  
171 2% 90%  
172 3% 88%  
173 3% 85%  
174 3% 81%  
175 4% 78%  
176 4% 75%  
177 3% 71%  
178 4% 67%  
179 4% 64%  
180 5% 59%  
181 5% 54%  
182 4% 49% Median
183 4% 45%  
184 6% 40%  
185 3% 34%  
186 5% 31%  
187 3% 26%  
188 3% 23%  
189 4% 20%  
190 3% 17%  
191 2% 13%  
192 2% 11%  
193 2% 9%  
194 1.4% 7%  
195 1.5% 6%  
196 1.2% 4%  
197 0.7% 3%  
198 0.6% 3%  
199 0.4% 2%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.1%  
202 0.2% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.7%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.2% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.2%  
156 0.7% 98.9%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.8% 97%  
160 1.2% 96%  
161 1.4% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 3% 92%  
164 2% 89%  
165 2% 87%  
166 4% 85%  
167 3% 81%  
168 4% 78%  
169 3% 74%  
170 4% 71%  
171 5% 66%  
172 5% 62%  
173 7% 57% Median
174 5% 50%  
175 3% 46%  
176 4% 42%  
177 5% 38%  
178 5% 33%  
179 4% 28%  
180 3% 24%  
181 3% 21%  
182 3% 18%  
183 2% 15%  
184 3% 13%  
185 2% 10%  
186 1.1% 8%  
187 1.2% 7%  
188 2% 5%  
189 1.1% 4%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.4%  
194 0.3% 1.0%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations