Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 13–15 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 25.2% 23.7–26.8% 23.3–27.3% 22.9–27.7% 22.2–28.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.6–22.5% 19.2–22.9% 18.8–23.3% 18.2–24.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.7–16.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5% 9.4–12.8% 8.9–13.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.7% 7.1–11.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.3–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.8% 5.0–6.7% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.2% 4.3–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 191 180–204 177–207 174–210 169–216
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 160 149–170 146–174 143–177 138–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 97–117 95–119 93–122 89–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 75–92 74–95 72–97 68–102
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 69 61–77 59–79 57–81 54–85
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 43–64 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 38–51 37–53 36–55 33–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.8%  
168 0.1% 99.7%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.2% 99.4%  
171 0.3% 99.2%  
172 0.3% 98.9%  
173 0.4% 98.6%  
174 0.8% 98%  
175 0.6% 97%  
176 1.0% 97%  
177 1.3% 96%  
178 1.2% 95%  
179 2% 93%  
180 2% 92%  
181 2% 90%  
182 2% 87%  
183 3% 85%  
184 3% 82%  
185 3% 79%  
186 4% 76%  
187 3% 72%  
188 4% 68%  
189 6% 65%  
190 3% 59%  
191 6% 56% Median
192 3% 50%  
193 4% 47%  
194 4% 42%  
195 4% 38%  
196 4% 34%  
197 4% 30%  
198 4% 27%  
199 3% 23%  
200 3% 20% Last Result
201 3% 17%  
202 2% 14%  
203 2% 12%  
204 2% 10%  
205 1.0% 8%  
206 1.3% 7%  
207 1.2% 6%  
208 0.9% 4%  
209 0.7% 4%  
210 0.9% 3%  
211 0.3% 2%  
212 0.3% 2%  
213 0.4% 1.4%  
214 0.2% 1.0%  
215 0.2% 0.8%  
216 0.2% 0.5%  
217 0.1% 0.4%  
218 0.1% 0.3%  
219 0.1% 0.2%  
220 0% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.2% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 0.4% 99.3%  
141 0.4% 98.9%  
142 0.5% 98%  
143 0.9% 98%  
144 0.6% 97%  
145 1.2% 97%  
146 1.1% 95%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 92%  
149 2% 91%  
150 3% 89%  
151 2% 86%  
152 4% 83%  
153 3% 80%  
154 4% 77%  
155 3% 73%  
156 4% 70%  
157 4% 66%  
158 5% 61%  
159 4% 56%  
160 4% 52% Median
161 5% 48%  
162 5% 42%  
163 4% 38%  
164 5% 34%  
165 4% 29%  
166 3% 25%  
167 3% 22%  
168 4% 19%  
169 2% 15%  
170 2% 12%  
171 2% 10%  
172 2% 8%  
173 1.1% 6%  
174 1.2% 5%  
175 1.0% 4%  
176 0.6% 3%  
177 0.7% 3%  
178 0.4% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.5%  
180 0.2% 1.1%  
181 0.3% 0.9%  
182 0.2% 0.6%  
183 0.1% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.6%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 0.5% 99.1%  
92 1.0% 98.6%  
93 0.8% 98%  
94 0.7% 97%  
95 1.2% 96%  
96 3% 95%  
97 3% 92%  
98 2% 89%  
99 2% 87%  
100 4% 85%  
101 7% 81%  
102 4% 74%  
103 3% 71%  
104 4% 68%  
105 7% 63%  
106 7% 57% Median
107 4% 50%  
108 4% 46%  
109 6% 42%  
110 6% 36%  
111 3% 30%  
112 4% 27%  
113 4% 23%  
114 5% 19%  
115 2% 14%  
116 2% 12%  
117 2% 10%  
118 3% 8%  
119 1.3% 5%  
120 0.8% 4%  
121 0.7% 3%  
122 0.7% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.3% 1.2%  
125 0.2% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.7%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.7% 98.8%  
71 0.5% 98%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 89%  
77 2% 86%  
78 4% 84%  
79 6% 80%  
80 7% 74%  
81 7% 68%  
82 4% 60%  
83 4% 56%  
84 6% 53% Median
85 6% 46%  
86 8% 40%  
87 5% 32%  
88 3% 27%  
89 3% 24%  
90 5% 21%  
91 4% 16%  
92 4% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 1.0% 7% Last Result
95 2% 6%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.3% 1.4%  
100 0.2% 1.1%  
101 0.3% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.3%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91%  
62 3% 88%  
63 5% 85%  
64 5% 80%  
65 5% 75%  
66 7% 70%  
67 6% 63%  
68 7% 57%  
69 6% 50% Median
70 7% 45%  
71 6% 38%  
72 5% 32%  
73 6% 27%  
74 3% 21%  
75 5% 18%  
76 3% 13%  
77 3% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 1.4% 5%  
80 1.4% 4% Last Result
81 0.6% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.7%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 99.1%  
43 1.1% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 5% 86%  
49 5% 81%  
50 6% 76%  
51 6% 69%  
52 8% 63%  
53 8% 55% Median
54 7% 47%  
55 7% 40%  
56 6% 34%  
57 6% 27%  
58 4% 22%  
59 4% 17%  
60 4% 13%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 7%  
63 1.2% 5%  
64 1.3% 4%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.4% 99.6%  
34 0.6% 99.2%  
35 1.0% 98.6%  
36 2% 98%  
37 3% 96%  
38 4% 93%  
39 5% 89%  
40 6% 84%  
41 6% 78%  
42 7% 72%  
43 7% 65%  
44 9% 58% Median
45 7% 49%  
46 8% 42% Last Result
47 7% 34%  
48 5% 27%  
49 6% 22%  
50 4% 16%  
51 4% 12%  
52 3% 9%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.2% 4%  
55 0.9% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.3%  
58 0.3% 0.8%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 503 100% 491–515 488–518 485–521 478–527
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 465 100% 452–477 449–480 446–484 440–490
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 412 100% 399–425 395–428 392–432 386–438
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 383–409 380–413 376–416 370–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 388 100% 376–402 372–406 369–410 363–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 343 16% 330–357 327–360 324–363 317–370
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 336 3% 322–348 318–351 315–355 309–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 320 0.1% 308–333 304–337 301–341 295–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0% 307–333 303–337 299–340 293–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 305 0% 292–318 289–322 286–325 279–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 253–278 250–282 247–286 241–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 164–187 161–190 159–193 154–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 160 0% 149–171 146–174 144–177 139–183

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 99.9%  
473 0% 99.9%  
474 0% 99.9%  
475 0.1% 99.8%  
476 0.1% 99.8%  
477 0.1% 99.7%  
478 0.2% 99.6%  
479 0.1% 99.5%  
480 0.2% 99.3%  
481 0.3% 99.1%  
482 0.3% 98.9%  
483 0.4% 98.6%  
484 0.4% 98%  
485 0.6% 98%  
486 0.6% 97%  
487 0.9% 97%  
488 1.1% 96%  
489 1.1% 95%  
490 2% 93%  
491 2% 92%  
492 2% 90%  
493 2% 88%  
494 3% 86%  
495 4% 83%  
496 2% 79%  
497 6% 77%  
498 3% 71%  
499 5% 68%  
500 3% 62%  
501 3% 59% Median
502 5% 56%  
503 5% 52%  
504 4% 47%  
505 3% 44%  
506 4% 40%  
507 3% 36%  
508 4% 33%  
509 3% 28%  
510 3% 26%  
511 3% 23%  
512 2% 20%  
513 3% 18%  
514 3% 15%  
515 2% 12%  
516 2% 10%  
517 2% 8%  
518 2% 6%  
519 1.2% 5%  
520 0.9% 3%  
521 0.6% 3%  
522 0.5% 2%  
523 0.3% 1.5%  
524 0.3% 1.1%  
525 0.2% 0.8%  
526 0.1% 0.7%  
527 0.1% 0.5%  
528 0.1% 0.4%  
529 0.1% 0.3%  
530 0% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.2%  
532 0% 0.2%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.7%  
439 0.1% 99.6%  
440 0.1% 99.5%  
441 0.2% 99.4%  
442 0.4% 99.2%  
443 0.4% 98.8%  
444 0.2% 98%  
445 0.3% 98%  
446 0.8% 98%  
447 1.4% 97%  
448 0.7% 96%  
449 0.3% 95%  
450 1.2% 95%  
451 2% 94%  
452 3% 92%  
453 1.3% 89%  
454 0.7% 87%  
455 2% 87%  
456 5% 85%  
457 4% 80%  
458 2% 77%  
459 1.3% 74%  
460 4% 73%  
461 6% 69%  
462 4% 63%  
463 2% 58%  
464 3% 56% Median
465 4% 53%  
466 7% 49%  
467 3% 42%  
468 1.3% 38%  
469 4% 37%  
470 4% 33%  
471 6% 29%  
472 2% 23%  
473 1.0% 22%  
474 3% 21%  
475 4% 17%  
476 3% 13%  
477 0.9% 11%  
478 0.7% 10%  
479 2% 9%  
480 2% 7%  
481 1.2% 5%  
482 0.4% 4%  
483 0.4% 3%  
484 0.7% 3%  
485 0.9% 2%  
486 0.3% 1.4%  
487 0.2% 1.2%  
488 0.2% 1.0%  
489 0.3% 0.8%  
490 0.2% 0.5%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0% 0.3%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.2%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.6%  
387 0.3% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.2%  
389 0.4% 99.0%  
390 0.3% 98.7%  
391 0.5% 98%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 0.8% 97%  
394 0.9% 97%  
395 0.8% 96%  
396 1.3% 95%  
397 1.2% 94%  
398 2% 92%  
399 2% 90%  
400 2% 89%  
401 3% 87%  
402 2% 84%  
403 3% 82%  
404 3% 80%  
405 3% 76%  
406 2% 73%  
407 3% 71%  
408 4% 67%  
409 5% 64%  
410 3% 59% Median
411 4% 56%  
412 4% 52%  
413 3% 48%  
414 3% 45%  
415 4% 41%  
416 4% 37%  
417 3% 33%  
418 3% 30%  
419 4% 27%  
420 2% 23%  
421 3% 21%  
422 3% 17%  
423 2% 15%  
424 2% 13%  
425 2% 11%  
426 1.4% 9%  
427 1.0% 7%  
428 2% 6%  
429 0.9% 5%  
430 0.6% 4%  
431 0.8% 3%  
432 0.4% 3%  
433 0.5% 2%  
434 0.3% 2%  
435 0.3% 1.4%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.3% 0.9%  
438 0.2% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0% 0.3%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.5%  
372 0.2% 99.3%  
373 0.4% 99.1%  
374 0.4% 98.7%  
375 0.5% 98%  
376 0.4% 98%  
377 0.5% 97%  
378 0.9% 97%  
379 0.9% 96%  
380 1.4% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 1.4% 92%  
383 1.0% 91%  
384 1.4% 90%  
385 2% 88%  
386 2% 86%  
387 2% 84%  
388 4% 82%  
389 5% 79%  
390 3% 74%  
391 3% 71%  
392 4% 69%  
393 3% 64%  
394 4% 61%  
395 4% 58% Median
396 6% 54%  
397 3% 48%  
398 4% 45%  
399 3% 41%  
400 4% 38%  
401 4% 34%  
402 4% 31%  
403 4% 27%  
404 2% 23%  
405 3% 20%  
406 2% 18%  
407 2% 15%  
408 2% 13%  
409 2% 11%  
410 2% 9%  
411 1.5% 8%  
412 0.9% 6%  
413 0.8% 5%  
414 0.8% 4%  
415 0.6% 4%  
416 0.6% 3%  
417 0.8% 2%  
418 0.3% 2%  
419 0.3% 1.4%  
420 0.3% 1.1%  
421 0.2% 0.8%  
422 0.1% 0.6%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.2% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.1%  
367 0.6% 98.8%  
368 0.4% 98%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 0.7% 97%  
371 0.7% 96%  
372 1.0% 96%  
373 1.0% 95%  
374 0.8% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 2% 87%  
379 3% 86%  
380 2% 83%  
381 3% 80%  
382 3% 77%  
383 3% 75%  
384 4% 71%  
385 4% 67%  
386 4% 63%  
387 4% 59%  
388 5% 55% Median
389 3% 50%  
390 4% 47%  
391 3% 43%  
392 4% 39%  
393 3% 36%  
394 4% 33%  
395 3% 29%  
396 2% 26%  
397 4% 24%  
398 3% 20%  
399 2% 17%  
400 3% 15%  
401 2% 13%  
402 2% 10%  
403 1.3% 9%  
404 1.2% 7%  
405 0.8% 6%  
406 0.8% 5%  
407 1.1% 5%  
408 0.5% 4%  
409 0.5% 3%  
410 0.8% 3%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.3% 1.2%  
414 0.2% 0.9%  
415 0.2% 0.7%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.3% 98.8%  
322 0.3% 98.5%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 0.9% 96%  
327 1.2% 96%  
328 1.3% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 2% 91%  
331 3% 90%  
332 2% 87%  
333 3% 85%  
334 3% 82%  
335 4% 79%  
336 2% 76%  
337 3% 74%  
338 4% 70%  
339 3% 66%  
340 3% 62%  
341 4% 59% Median
342 3% 55%  
343 4% 51%  
344 2% 47%  
345 3% 45%  
346 4% 42%  
347 4% 38%  
348 2% 34%  
349 3% 32%  
350 3% 29%  
351 3% 26%  
352 3% 23%  
353 3% 21%  
354 2% 17%  
355 3% 16% Majority
356 2% 13%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 1.3% 7%  
360 0.8% 6%  
361 1.2% 5%  
362 0.7% 4%  
363 0.6% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.5%  
367 0.2% 1.1%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 99.0%  
313 0.4% 98.6%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.6% 98%  
316 0.9% 97%  
317 0.7% 96%  
318 1.0% 96%  
319 2% 95%  
320 1.3% 93%  
321 1.2% 92%  
322 2% 90%  
323 3% 89%  
324 0.9% 86%  
325 2% 85%  
326 2% 83%  
327 2% 81%  
328 3% 79%  
329 2% 76%  
330 4% 74%  
331 3% 70%  
332 3% 66%  
333 4% 64%  
334 4% 59%  
335 3% 55% Median
336 4% 52%  
337 5% 48%  
338 4% 43%  
339 4% 40%  
340 5% 35%  
341 3% 30%  
342 3% 27%  
343 4% 24%  
344 3% 21%  
345 3% 18%  
346 1.4% 14%  
347 3% 13%  
348 2% 10%  
349 1.3% 9%  
350 1.4% 7%  
351 0.9% 6%  
352 0.9% 5%  
353 0.6% 4%  
354 0.8% 3%  
355 0.4% 3% Majority
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.5%  
359 0.2% 1.1%  
360 0.2% 0.9%  
361 0.2% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0.3% 99.4%  
297 0.4% 99.2%  
298 0.2% 98.8%  
299 0.4% 98.6%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.6% 96%  
304 1.3% 96%  
305 2% 95%  
306 1.1% 93%  
307 0.9% 92%  
308 3% 91%  
309 3% 88%  
310 2% 85%  
311 2% 84%  
312 2% 81%  
313 5% 79%  
314 4% 74%  
315 3% 70%  
316 3% 68%  
317 4% 65%  
318 5% 61%  
319 4% 55% Median
320 3% 52%  
321 3% 49%  
322 5% 45%  
323 5% 40%  
324 3% 36%  
325 2% 33%  
326 4% 31%  
327 5% 27%  
328 2% 22%  
329 1.3% 20%  
330 2% 19%  
331 4% 17%  
332 2% 13%  
333 1.1% 11%  
334 2% 10%  
335 2% 8%  
336 1.1% 7%  
337 0.6% 5%  
338 0.6% 5%  
339 0.8% 4%  
340 0.8% 3% Last Result
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.3% 1.3%  
345 0.3% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.3% 99.1%  
297 0.3% 98.8%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.8% 98%  
300 0.5% 97%  
301 0.5% 97%  
302 1.1% 96%  
303 0.8% 95%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 1.2% 94%  
306 1.3% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 90%  
309 3% 87%  
310 2% 85%  
311 3% 83%  
312 4% 80%  
313 2% 76%  
314 3% 74%  
315 4% 71%  
316 3% 67%  
317 4% 64%  
318 3% 61%  
319 4% 57% Median
320 3% 53%  
321 5% 50%  
322 4% 45%  
323 4% 41%  
324 4% 37%  
325 4% 33%  
326 3% 29%  
327 3% 25%  
328 3% 23%  
329 2% 20%  
330 3% 17%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 13%  
333 2% 11%  
334 2% 9%  
335 0.8% 7%  
336 1.0% 6%  
337 1.0% 5%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.2%  
344 0.2% 0.9%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0.3% 99.1%  
283 0.3% 98.8%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.4% 98%  
286 0.8% 98%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 1.0% 96%  
289 1.1% 95%  
290 1.4% 94%  
291 2% 93%  
292 1.5% 91%  
293 3% 90%  
294 2% 87%  
295 3% 85%  
296 3% 82%  
297 3% 79%  
298 3% 76%  
299 3% 73%  
300 3% 70%  
301 3% 68%  
302 3% 64%  
303 4% 62%  
304 4% 57% Median
305 4% 53%  
306 4% 49%  
307 4% 45%  
308 5% 42%  
309 4% 36%  
310 4% 33%  
311 3% 29%  
312 4% 25%  
313 2% 22%  
314 2% 20%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 15%  
317 2% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 1.4% 10%  
320 1.4% 8%  
321 1.5% 7%  
322 1.0% 5%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 0.9% 4%  
325 0.4% 3%  
326 0.7% 2% Last Result
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 1.1%  
330 0.2% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.3%  
244 0.3% 99.0%  
245 0.4% 98.6%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.8% 98%  
248 0.9% 97%  
249 0.8% 96%  
250 1.1% 95%  
251 1.2% 94%  
252 1.3% 93%  
253 2% 91%  
254 2% 90%  
255 2% 88%  
256 2% 86%  
257 2% 84%  
258 2% 82%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 3% 75%  
262 3% 72%  
263 3% 69%  
264 3% 66%  
265 4% 62%  
266 4% 58% Median
267 4% 54%  
268 5% 50%  
269 5% 45%  
270 4% 40%  
271 4% 36%  
272 4% 32%  
273 4% 28%  
274 3% 24%  
275 3% 20%  
276 2% 17%  
277 2% 15%  
278 3% 12%  
279 2% 10%  
280 1.5% 8%  
281 1.1% 7%  
282 1.0% 6%  
283 0.6% 5%  
284 0.8% 4%  
285 0.4% 3%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 0.4% 2%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.2% 1.4%  
290 0.3% 1.2%  
291 0.2% 0.9%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.3% 99.5%  
155 0.3% 99.3%  
156 0.3% 98.9%  
157 0.4% 98.7%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 1.0% 97%  
161 1.3% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 1.4% 93%  
164 2% 92%  
165 2% 89%  
166 2% 87%  
167 3% 85%  
168 3% 82%  
169 3% 78%  
170 4% 76%  
171 4% 72%  
172 4% 68%  
173 4% 64%  
174 5% 60%  
175 6% 55% Median
176 4% 49%  
177 4% 45%  
178 5% 41%  
179 4% 36%  
180 4% 33%  
181 5% 29%  
182 3% 24%  
183 3% 21%  
184 3% 18%  
185 3% 15%  
186 2% 13%  
187 3% 11%  
188 1.3% 8%  
189 1.2% 7%  
190 1.3% 6%  
191 0.9% 4%  
192 0.8% 4%  
193 0.5% 3%  
194 0.6% 2%  
195 0.4% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.4%  
197 0.2% 1.0%  
198 0.2% 0.8%  
199 0.2% 0.6%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.1% 99.7%  
138 0.1% 99.6%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 0.2% 99.3%  
141 0.4% 99.1%  
142 0.5% 98.7%  
143 0.6% 98%  
144 0.9% 98%  
145 0.8% 97%  
146 0.9% 96%  
147 1.5% 95%  
148 1.4% 93%  
149 3% 92%  
150 2% 89%  
151 3% 87%  
152 3% 84%  
153 4% 81%  
154 3% 77%  
155 3% 74%  
156 4% 70%  
157 5% 67%  
158 4% 62%  
159 5% 58% Median
160 4% 52%  
161 5% 49%  
162 4% 44%  
163 5% 40%  
164 5% 35%  
165 4% 30%  
166 2% 27%  
167 4% 24%  
168 3% 20%  
169 3% 17%  
170 2% 14%  
171 2% 12%  
172 2% 10%  
173 2% 8%  
174 1.2% 6%  
175 0.8% 5%  
176 0.8% 4%  
177 1.1% 3%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.4% 2%  
180 0.4% 1.4%  
181 0.2% 1.0%  
182 0.3% 0.8%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations