Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 15 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.7–25.0% 20.3–25.4% 19.5–26.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.2–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 167 155–180 152–184 149–187 143–193
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 147 135–159 132–162 130–166 124–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 133 122–145 119–148 116–150 111–156
Alternative für Deutschland 94 89 79–99 77–102 75–104 70–109
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 74 65–83 63–86 61–88 57–93
Die Linke 69 59 52–68 50–70 48–73 45–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 39 33–46 31–48 30–50 27–54

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.4%  
145 0.3% 99.3%  
146 0.3% 99.0%  
147 0.5% 98.8%  
148 0.6% 98%  
149 0.5% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 0.7% 96%  
152 1.4% 96%  
153 1.4% 94%  
154 2% 93%  
155 2% 91%  
156 2% 89%  
157 3% 88%  
158 2% 85%  
159 3% 83%  
160 3% 80%  
161 3% 77%  
162 5% 74%  
163 2% 69%  
164 5% 67%  
165 4% 61%  
166 4% 58%  
167 5% 54% Median
168 3% 49%  
169 5% 46%  
170 3% 41%  
171 4% 38%  
172 4% 34%  
173 3% 30%  
174 4% 27%  
175 2% 22%  
176 3% 20%  
177 2% 17%  
178 2% 15%  
179 2% 13%  
180 1.1% 10%  
181 2% 9%  
182 1.3% 7%  
183 1.1% 6%  
184 1.1% 5%  
185 0.6% 4%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.4% 3%  
188 0.7% 2%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.3%  
191 0.2% 1.0%  
192 0.1% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 0.2% 99.5%  
126 0.4% 99.2%  
127 0.3% 98.8%  
128 0.5% 98.5%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 0.9% 97%  
132 1.2% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 93%  
135 2% 91%  
136 2% 89%  
137 2% 87%  
138 3% 85%  
139 3% 82%  
140 4% 79%  
141 4% 75%  
142 3% 72%  
143 4% 68%  
144 4% 64%  
145 4% 60%  
146 5% 56%  
147 4% 51% Median
148 5% 47%  
149 3% 42%  
150 5% 39%  
151 3% 34%  
152 4% 31%  
153 3% 27%  
154 3% 24%  
155 2% 20%  
156 3% 18%  
157 2% 15%  
158 2% 13%  
159 2% 11%  
160 1.4% 9%  
161 2% 7%  
162 1.0% 6%  
163 0.8% 5%  
164 1.0% 4%  
165 0.6% 3%  
166 0.6% 3%  
167 0.4% 2%  
168 0.4% 2%  
169 0.3% 1.2%  
170 0.2% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.7%  
172 0.1% 0.5%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.2% 99.4%  
113 0.4% 99.2%  
114 0.5% 98.8%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 0.8% 97%  
118 1.2% 96%  
119 1.1% 95%  
120 2% 94%  
121 2% 92%  
122 2% 90%  
123 2% 88%  
124 3% 86%  
125 2% 83%  
126 4% 81%  
127 3% 77%  
128 5% 74%  
129 4% 69%  
130 4% 65%  
131 5% 61%  
132 5% 56%  
133 5% 52% Median
134 5% 46%  
135 4% 42%  
136 4% 38%  
137 5% 34%  
138 4% 29%  
139 4% 26%  
140 2% 22%  
141 3% 19%  
142 3% 17%  
143 2% 14%  
144 2% 12%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 1.4% 6%  
148 1.0% 5%  
149 1.0% 4%  
150 0.6% 3%  
151 0.6% 2%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.5% Last Result
154 0.4% 1.2%  
155 0.2% 0.8%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.4% 99.2%  
73 0.5% 98.9%  
74 0.7% 98%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 1.5% 97%  
77 2% 95%  
78 2% 94%  
79 2% 92%  
80 3% 90%  
81 4% 87%  
82 4% 83%  
83 4% 79%  
84 4% 75%  
85 4% 71%  
86 6% 67%  
87 5% 61%  
88 6% 56%  
89 5% 50% Median
90 4% 45%  
91 5% 41%  
92 5% 35%  
93 5% 31%  
94 3% 25% Last Result
95 3% 22%  
96 3% 19%  
97 3% 15%  
98 2% 12%  
99 2% 10%  
100 1.2% 8%  
101 1.2% 6%  
102 1.2% 5%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.3% 1.2%  
108 0.3% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.4% 99.5%  
59 0.4% 99.1%  
60 0.6% 98.7%  
61 1.0% 98%  
62 1.5% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 1.4% 94%  
65 3% 93%  
66 3% 89%  
67 6% 87%  
68 2% 81%  
69 6% 79%  
70 3% 73%  
71 9% 70%  
72 3% 61%  
73 7% 58%  
74 3% 51% Median
75 9% 48%  
76 4% 39%  
77 7% 35%  
78 3% 29%  
79 6% 26%  
80 3% 20% Last Result
81 3% 17%  
82 3% 14%  
83 2% 11%  
84 2% 9%  
85 1.2% 7%  
86 1.5% 5%  
87 0.8% 4%  
88 0.7% 3%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.7%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 0.5% 99.2%  
47 0.7% 98.6%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 2% 95%  
51 3% 93%  
52 3% 90%  
53 4% 87%  
54 5% 83%  
55 5% 78%  
56 6% 73%  
57 5% 67%  
58 6% 62%  
59 7% 56% Median
60 7% 49%  
61 6% 42%  
62 6% 36%  
63 6% 30%  
64 4% 24%  
65 3% 20%  
66 3% 17%  
67 3% 13%  
68 2% 10%  
69 2% 8% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.1% 5%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.8% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.3% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.7%  
28 0.5% 99.4%  
29 1.1% 98.9%  
30 1.3% 98%  
31 3% 96%  
32 2% 94%  
33 5% 91%  
34 4% 86%  
35 7% 82%  
36 6% 75%  
37 8% 70%  
38 6% 62%  
39 8% 56% Median
40 7% 48%  
41 7% 41%  
42 6% 34%  
43 7% 27%  
44 5% 21%  
45 4% 16%  
46 4% 12% Last Result
47 2% 8%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.4% 5%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.5%  
53 0.4% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 487 100% 473–500 469–504 466–507 459–513
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 428 100% 414–442 409–446 406–449 399–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 414 100% 399–428 395–432 392–435 384–442
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 370 91% 355–384 351–388 348–391 340–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 354 47% 339–368 335–372 332–376 325–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 354 49% 340–368 335–373 332–376 325–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 340 10% 325–355 321–358 318–362 310–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 339 9% 325–354 321–358 318–361 310–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 295 0% 281–310 277–314 274–318 267–325
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 281 0% 267–295 263–299 259–303 253–309
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 280 0% 266–294 262–298 258–302 252–308
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 207 0% 194–220 190–224 187–227 181–234
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 192 0% 179–206 176–209 173–213 167–219

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.1% 99.6%  
460 0.2% 99.4%  
461 0.2% 99.2%  
462 0.3% 99.1%  
463 0.3% 98.8%  
464 0.3% 98%  
465 0.5% 98%  
466 0.5% 98% Last Result
467 0.6% 97%  
468 1.0% 97%  
469 0.6% 96%  
470 1.0% 95%  
471 1.0% 94%  
472 2% 93%  
473 1.2% 91%  
474 1.4% 90%  
475 2% 88%  
476 2% 86%  
477 3% 84%  
478 3% 81%  
479 3% 78%  
480 3% 76%  
481 4% 73%  
482 3% 69%  
483 3% 66%  
484 4% 63%  
485 5% 59%  
486 3% 54% Median
487 4% 51%  
488 4% 47%  
489 3% 44%  
490 5% 41%  
491 3% 36%  
492 3% 33%  
493 3% 30%  
494 4% 27%  
495 3% 23%  
496 3% 21%  
497 2% 17%  
498 1.4% 15%  
499 3% 14%  
500 2% 11%  
501 1.1% 9%  
502 1.4% 8%  
503 1.4% 6%  
504 0.9% 5%  
505 0.8% 4%  
506 0.5% 3%  
507 0.6% 3%  
508 0.5% 2%  
509 0.4% 2%  
510 0.3% 1.3%  
511 0.2% 1.0%  
512 0.2% 0.8%  
513 0.1% 0.6%  
514 0.1% 0.4%  
515 0.1% 0.3%  
516 0.1% 0.2%  
517 0% 0.2%  
518 0.1% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9% Last Result
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.8%  
396 0% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.8%  
398 0.1% 99.7%  
399 0.1% 99.6%  
400 0.2% 99.5%  
401 0.2% 99.3%  
402 0.3% 99.0%  
403 0.3% 98.8%  
404 0.3% 98.5%  
405 0.3% 98%  
406 0.4% 98%  
407 0.6% 97%  
408 1.1% 97%  
409 0.8% 96%  
410 1.0% 95%  
411 1.2% 94%  
412 1.1% 93%  
413 1.2% 92%  
414 1.4% 90%  
415 2% 89%  
416 2% 87%  
417 2% 85%  
418 4% 83%  
419 2% 79%  
420 2% 77%  
421 4% 75%  
422 2% 71%  
423 4% 69%  
424 3% 65%  
425 4% 62%  
426 5% 59%  
427 3% 54% Median
428 3% 51%  
429 4% 48%  
430 4% 44%  
431 3% 40%  
432 4% 38%  
433 3% 34%  
434 3% 31%  
435 3% 27%  
436 2% 24%  
437 3% 22%  
438 2% 19%  
439 2% 17%  
440 2% 15%  
441 3% 13%  
442 1.1% 10%  
443 2% 9%  
444 1.2% 8%  
445 1.1% 6%  
446 0.9% 5%  
447 0.6% 4%  
448 0.6% 4%  
449 0.7% 3%  
450 0.4% 2%  
451 0.4% 2%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.2%  
454 0.2% 0.9%  
455 0.2% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.5%  
386 0.2% 99.4%  
387 0.2% 99.2%  
388 0.4% 99.0%  
389 0.2% 98.6%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.4% 98%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 0.8% 97%  
394 0.9% 96%  
395 0.7% 95%  
396 1.0% 95%  
397 1.3% 94%  
398 1.2% 92%  
399 1.2% 91%  
400 2% 90%  
401 1.5% 88%  
402 2% 87%  
403 2% 84%  
404 2% 82%  
405 3% 80%  
406 3% 78%  
407 3% 75%  
408 3% 72%  
409 3% 68%  
410 3% 65%  
411 4% 63%  
412 4% 59%  
413 4% 55% Median
414 3% 51%  
415 5% 48%  
416 4% 43%  
417 3% 40%  
418 3% 37%  
419 3% 34%  
420 3% 30%  
421 2% 27%  
422 3% 25%  
423 3% 22%  
424 2% 19%  
425 3% 17%  
426 1.5% 14%  
427 2% 13%  
428 1.2% 11%  
429 2% 10%  
430 1.3% 8%  
431 0.8% 6%  
432 1.1% 6%  
433 0.8% 5%  
434 0.8% 4%  
435 0.6% 3%  
436 0.5% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.4% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.2%  
440 0.2% 1.0%  
441 0.1% 0.8%  
442 0.2% 0.6%  
443 0.1% 0.5%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0.2% 99.5%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.2% 99.1%  
344 0.2% 99.0%  
345 0.4% 98.8%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.4% 98%  
348 0.5% 98%  
349 0.8% 97%  
350 0.6% 96%  
351 1.2% 96%  
352 1.0% 94%  
353 1.0% 94%  
354 1.2% 93%  
355 2% 91% Majority
356 2% 89%  
357 1.2% 87%  
358 2% 86%  
359 3% 84%  
360 3% 81%  
361 2% 79%  
362 3% 76%  
363 2% 73%  
364 3% 71%  
365 3% 68%  
366 5% 65%  
367 2% 60%  
368 3% 58%  
369 2% 54% Median
370 7% 52%  
371 2% 45%  
372 3% 43%  
373 2% 40%  
374 4% 38%  
375 4% 34%  
376 3% 30%  
377 3% 27%  
378 3% 24%  
379 2% 21%  
380 3% 19%  
381 2% 16%  
382 1.4% 14%  
383 1.5% 12%  
384 1.5% 11%  
385 2% 9%  
386 0.8% 7%  
387 0.9% 7%  
388 1.0% 6%  
389 0.9% 5%  
390 0.8% 4%  
391 0.7% 3%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.5%  
396 0.2% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.8%  
398 0.1% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.6%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.2% 99.4%  
327 0.2% 99.2%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.3% 98.7%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.4% 98%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 0.8% 96%  
335 0.7% 96%  
336 1.3% 95%  
337 1.2% 94%  
338 1.0% 92%  
339 1.5% 91%  
340 2% 90%  
341 2% 88%  
342 2% 86%  
343 2% 84%  
344 3% 82%  
345 2% 79%  
346 3% 76%  
347 3% 74%  
348 3% 71%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 65%  
351 4% 62%  
352 3% 58%  
353 3% 55% Median
354 4% 52%  
355 4% 47% Majority
356 2% 44%  
357 4% 41%  
358 4% 37%  
359 2% 33%  
360 3% 31%  
361 4% 28%  
362 2% 24%  
363 3% 22%  
364 2% 19%  
365 2% 17%  
366 2% 15%  
367 2% 13%  
368 2% 12%  
369 1.3% 10%  
370 1.2% 8%  
371 0.9% 7%  
372 1.4% 6%  
373 0.8% 5%  
374 0.6% 4%  
375 0.6% 3%  
376 0.6% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.4%  
380 0.2% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 0.9%  
382 0.1% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4%  
327 0.2% 99.2%  
328 0.3% 99.0%  
329 0.3% 98.8%  
330 0.3% 98.5%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 0.8% 96%  
335 0.9% 96%  
336 1.1% 95%  
337 1.1% 94%  
338 1.1% 92%  
339 1.3% 91%  
340 1.5% 90%  
341 2% 89%  
342 2% 87%  
343 3% 85%  
344 3% 82%  
345 2% 79%  
346 4% 77%  
347 2% 73%  
348 3% 71%  
349 3% 68%  
350 3% 65%  
351 4% 62%  
352 3% 59%  
353 2% 55%  
354 5% 53% Median
355 5% 49% Majority
356 4% 43%  
357 3% 40%  
358 4% 37%  
359 3% 33%  
360 3% 31%  
361 3% 28%  
362 2% 25%  
363 2% 23%  
364 3% 21%  
365 2% 18%  
366 2% 16%  
367 3% 14%  
368 2% 11%  
369 1.3% 9%  
370 1.3% 8%  
371 1.1% 7%  
372 0.7% 6%  
373 0.7% 5%  
374 0.7% 4%  
375 0.6% 4%  
376 0.8% 3%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.5%  
380 0.3% 1.2%  
381 0.1% 0.9%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.4%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.2% 99.3%  
313 0.2% 99.1%  
314 0.1% 98.9%  
315 0.4% 98.8%  
316 0.3% 98%  
317 0.4% 98%  
318 0.7% 98%  
319 0.7% 97%  
320 0.8% 96%  
321 0.8% 95%  
322 0.8% 95%  
323 1.3% 94%  
324 2% 93%  
325 2% 91%  
326 2% 89%  
327 2% 87%  
328 2% 86%  
329 2% 84%  
330 2% 82%  
331 3% 80%  
332 3% 77%  
333 3% 74%  
334 2% 71%  
335 3% 70%  
336 4% 67%  
337 4% 63%  
338 5% 59%  
339 3% 54% Median
340 5% 52%  
341 3% 47%  
342 3% 44%  
343 3% 41%  
344 6% 38%  
345 3% 32%  
346 2% 29%  
347 2% 27%  
348 2% 25%  
349 4% 23%  
350 2% 19%  
351 2% 17%  
352 2% 15%  
353 2% 13%  
354 1.0% 11%  
355 2% 10% Majority
356 2% 8%  
357 1.1% 6%  
358 0.6% 5%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 1.0% 4%  
361 0.5% 3%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.8%  
369 0.2% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.2% 99.3%  
313 0.2% 99.2%  
314 0.4% 99.0%  
315 0.3% 98.5%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.3% 98%  
318 0.7% 98%  
319 0.8% 97%  
320 0.9% 96%  
321 1.0% 95%  
322 0.9% 94%  
323 0.8% 93%  
324 2% 93%  
325 1.5% 91%  
326 1.5% 89%  
327 1.4% 88%  
328 2% 86%  
329 3% 84%  
330 2% 81%  
331 3% 79%  
332 3% 76%  
333 3% 73%  
334 4% 70%  
335 4% 66%  
336 2% 62%  
337 3% 60%  
338 2% 57%  
339 7% 55% Median
340 2% 48%  
341 3% 46%  
342 2% 42%  
343 5% 40%  
344 3% 35%  
345 3% 32%  
346 2% 29%  
347 3% 27%  
348 2% 24%  
349 3% 21%  
350 3% 19%  
351 2% 16%  
352 1.2% 14%  
353 2% 13%  
354 2% 11%  
355 1.2% 9% Majority
356 1.0% 7%  
357 1.0% 6%  
358 1.2% 6%  
359 0.6% 4%  
360 0.8% 4%  
361 0.5% 3%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.2%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.2% 99.3%  
270 0.3% 99.1%  
271 0.3% 98.8%  
272 0.4% 98.5%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 0.6% 97%  
276 0.8% 97%  
277 1.2% 96%  
278 1.1% 95%  
279 1.1% 94%  
280 1.1% 92%  
281 2% 91%  
282 1.3% 90%  
283 2% 88%  
284 2% 87%  
285 3% 84%  
286 2% 81%  
287 3% 79%  
288 3% 76%  
289 3% 74%  
290 2% 70%  
291 4% 68%  
292 3% 64%  
293 3% 61%  
294 3% 58%  
295 5% 54% Median
296 3% 49%  
297 4% 46%  
298 2% 42%  
299 3% 40%  
300 3% 37%  
301 3% 34%  
302 3% 31%  
303 5% 28%  
304 3% 24%  
305 3% 21%  
306 2% 18%  
307 2% 17%  
308 2% 15%  
309 2% 13%  
310 2% 11%  
311 1.4% 9%  
312 1.1% 8%  
313 1.2% 7%  
314 0.7% 5%  
315 0.9% 5%  
316 0.6% 4%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.6% 3%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.4%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.2% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.3% 99.4%  
255 0.3% 99.1%  
256 0.2% 98.8%  
257 0.5% 98.6%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.4% 98%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 0.7% 96%  
263 0.8% 95%  
264 0.9% 94%  
265 1.3% 94%  
266 1.4% 92%  
267 1.1% 91%  
268 2% 90%  
269 2% 87%  
270 3% 85%  
271 3% 82%  
272 2% 79%  
273 4% 77%  
274 3% 74%  
275 3% 71%  
276 3% 68%  
277 3% 65%  
278 3% 62%  
279 3% 59%  
280 3% 55% Median
281 3% 52%  
282 5% 49%  
283 3% 44%  
284 4% 41%  
285 3% 37%  
286 4% 34%  
287 4% 30%  
288 3% 26%  
289 3% 24%  
290 2% 20%  
291 2% 18%  
292 2% 16%  
293 2% 14%  
294 2% 13%  
295 2% 11%  
296 1.2% 9%  
297 1.3% 8%  
298 0.9% 7%  
299 1.0% 6%  
300 0.8% 5%  
301 0.9% 4%  
302 0.7% 3%  
303 0.5% 3%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.4% 1.4%  
307 0.2% 1.0%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 98.9%  
256 0.3% 98.6%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 0.8% 96%  
262 0.9% 95%  
263 0.9% 94%  
264 2% 93%  
265 2% 92%  
266 2% 90%  
267 2% 89%  
268 2% 87%  
269 2% 85%  
270 3% 83%  
271 2% 80%  
272 4% 78%  
273 2% 75%  
274 4% 72%  
275 4% 69%  
276 3% 65%  
277 4% 62%  
278 3% 58%  
279 3% 55%  
280 4% 52% Median
281 4% 48%  
282 3% 44%  
283 4% 41%  
284 2% 37%  
285 4% 34%  
286 2% 30%  
287 4% 28%  
288 2% 24%  
289 2% 21%  
290 2% 19%  
291 2% 17%  
292 2% 15%  
293 2% 13%  
294 2% 11%  
295 2% 10%  
296 1.3% 8%  
297 1.0% 7%  
298 1.2% 6%  
299 0.5% 4%  
300 0.7% 4%  
301 0.5% 3%  
302 0.6% 3%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.3%  
306 0.2% 1.1%  
307 0.2% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.7%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0.2% 99.4%  
183 0.3% 99.2%  
184 0.3% 98.9%  
185 0.4% 98.6%  
186 0.5% 98%  
187 0.6% 98%  
188 0.8% 97%  
189 1.0% 96%  
190 0.7% 95%  
191 1.2% 95%  
192 2% 94%  
193 1.2% 92%  
194 2% 91%  
195 2% 89%  
196 2% 87%  
197 2% 84%  
198 3% 82%  
199 3% 79%  
200 3% 76%  
201 3% 73%  
202 4% 70%  
203 4% 66%  
204 4% 62%  
205 5% 59%  
206 3% 54%  
207 4% 52% Median
208 4% 47%  
209 4% 43%  
210 3% 39%  
211 3% 36%  
212 4% 33%  
213 3% 29%  
214 3% 26%  
215 3% 23%  
216 3% 20%  
217 2% 17%  
218 2% 15%  
219 3% 14%  
220 2% 11%  
221 1.4% 9%  
222 1.3% 8%  
223 1.1% 7%  
224 1.0% 6%  
225 0.9% 5%  
226 0.8% 4%  
227 0.5% 3%  
228 0.4% 2%  
229 0.4% 2%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.3% 1.3%  
232 0.3% 1.0%  
233 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
234 0.1% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.1% 99.5%  
168 0.2% 99.4%  
169 0.2% 99.2%  
170 0.3% 99.0%  
171 0.3% 98.7%  
172 0.7% 98%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 1.0% 97%  
175 0.9% 96%  
176 1.0% 95%  
177 1.4% 94%  
178 1.3% 93%  
179 1.5% 91%  
180 2% 90%  
181 2% 88%  
182 2% 86%  
183 2% 84%  
184 4% 82%  
185 3% 78%  
186 3% 75%  
187 4% 72%  
188 3% 68%  
189 4% 65%  
190 5% 61%  
191 3% 56%  
192 4% 53% Median
193 4% 49%  
194 3% 45%  
195 4% 42%  
196 4% 38%  
197 4% 34%  
198 4% 30%  
199 3% 26%  
200 3% 24%  
201 3% 21%  
202 2% 18%  
203 1.3% 16%  
204 2% 14%  
205 2% 12%  
206 2% 10%  
207 1.0% 8%  
208 1.5% 7%  
209 1.0% 6%  
210 0.8% 5%  
211 0.8% 4%  
212 0.5% 3%  
213 0.6% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0.3% 1.5%  
216 0.3% 1.2%  
217 0.2% 0.9%  
218 0.1% 0.7%  
219 0.1% 0.5%  
220 0.1% 0.4%  
221 0.1% 0.3%  
222 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations