Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 16–19 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.5% 20.6–22.5% 20.3–22.8% 20.1–23.0% 19.6–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.1–22.0% 19.8–22.3% 19.6–22.5% 19.2–23.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.2–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 6.0–7.1% 5.8–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.4–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 160 153–167 151–169 150–171 146–175
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 157 150–164 148–166 146–167 143–171
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 113–126 111–128 110–129 107–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 84–95 83–97 81–98 79–101
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 82 77–88 75–89 74–90 71–93
Die Linke 69 52 48–57 47–58 46–59 44–61
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 45–53 44–54 42–55 41–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.9%  
146 0.2% 99.7%  
147 0.5% 99.5%  
148 0.4% 99.0%  
149 0.7% 98.6%  
150 1.3% 98%  
151 2% 97%  
152 2% 95%  
153 3% 93%  
154 3% 90%  
155 6% 87%  
156 8% 81%  
157 6% 73%  
158 5% 68%  
159 6% 63%  
160 11% 57% Median
161 7% 46%  
162 6% 39%  
163 4% 33%  
164 6% 29%  
165 6% 23%  
166 5% 16%  
167 2% 12%  
168 2% 9%  
169 3% 7%  
170 2% 4%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.5% 1.4%  
174 0.4% 1.0%  
175 0.3% 0.6%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.2% 99.8%  
143 0.3% 99.6%  
144 0.5% 99.2%  
145 0.6% 98.7%  
146 0.7% 98%  
147 1.3% 97%  
148 2% 96%  
149 2% 94%  
150 4% 92%  
151 6% 88%  
152 6% 82%  
153 5% 77%  
154 5% 71%  
155 5% 66%  
156 7% 61%  
157 9% 54% Median
158 9% 45%  
159 8% 36%  
160 6% 28%  
161 6% 22%  
162 3% 16%  
163 2% 13%  
164 2% 10%  
165 2% 8%  
166 2% 6%  
167 1.1% 3%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.7% 2%  
170 0.3% 0.9%  
171 0.2% 0.6%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 0.3% 99.6%  
108 0.5% 99.3%  
109 0.8% 98.8%  
110 1.2% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 3% 95%  
113 4% 92%  
114 4% 88%  
115 5% 84%  
116 7% 79%  
117 7% 72%  
118 8% 65%  
119 8% 57% Median
120 9% 49%  
121 9% 40%  
122 6% 31%  
123 6% 25%  
124 5% 19%  
125 3% 14%  
126 3% 11%  
127 2% 7%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.2% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.5% 1.2%  
132 0.2% 0.7%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 0.9% 99.2%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 4% 92%  
85 5% 88%  
86 7% 83%  
87 9% 76%  
88 8% 67%  
89 9% 59%  
90 9% 50% Median
91 8% 41%  
92 8% 33%  
93 7% 25%  
94 5% 17% Last Result
95 4% 13%  
96 3% 9%  
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.5%  
73 0.8% 99.1%  
74 1.5% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 95%  
77 5% 91%  
78 6% 87%  
79 8% 81%  
80 8% 72% Last Result
81 9% 64%  
82 10% 55% Median
83 8% 45%  
84 8% 36%  
85 8% 28%  
86 6% 20%  
87 4% 14%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.4%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 1.0% 99.1%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 5% 93%  
49 7% 87%  
50 10% 81%  
51 12% 70%  
52 10% 58% Median
53 11% 49%  
54 13% 38%  
55 8% 25%  
56 5% 17%  
57 5% 12%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 1.4% 97%  
44 4% 96%  
45 9% 91%  
46 11% 82% Last Result
47 4% 71%  
48 10% 67%  
49 19% 57% Median
50 11% 37%  
51 6% 26%  
52 6% 21%  
53 7% 15%  
54 4% 8%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.7% 2%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 485 100% 477–493 475–495 473–497 469–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 440–456 438–458 435–460 431–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 411 100% 402–419 400–421 398–423 394–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 380 100% 372–389 370–392 368–393 364–397
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 366 96% 357–374 355–376 353–378 349–382
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 358 71% 350–366 347–369 345–371 341–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 329 0% 320–337 317–339 316–341 312–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 328 0% 320–337 318–339 316–341 312–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 298 0% 290–307 288–309 286–311 282–315
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 291 0% 283–299 281–302 278–304 275–308
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 276 0% 268–284 265–287 264–289 260–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 201 0% 194–209 192–211 190–213 186–217
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 165–179 163–181 161–183 157–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
465 0% 100%  
466 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.8%  
468 0.1% 99.7%  
469 0.2% 99.6%  
470 0.3% 99.4%  
471 0.5% 99.1%  
472 0.6% 98.7%  
473 0.9% 98%  
474 2% 97%  
475 1.4% 95%  
476 2% 94%  
477 3% 92%  
478 3% 89%  
479 4% 86%  
480 6% 82%  
481 4% 76%  
482 7% 72%  
483 7% 66%  
484 6% 59%  
485 6% 53% Median
486 7% 47%  
487 6% 41%  
488 6% 35%  
489 7% 29%  
490 3% 22%  
491 5% 19%  
492 3% 13%  
493 3% 10%  
494 2% 8%  
495 2% 6%  
496 1.4% 4%  
497 1.0% 3%  
498 0.7% 2%  
499 0.4% 1.1%  
500 0.3% 0.7%  
501 0.1% 0.4%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0.1% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.2% 99.7%  
432 0.3% 99.5%  
433 0.4% 99.2%  
434 0.5% 98.8%  
435 0.9% 98%  
436 1.0% 97%  
437 1.4% 96%  
438 2% 95%  
439 2% 93%  
440 3% 91%  
441 3% 88%  
442 4% 85%  
443 6% 81%  
444 5% 75%  
445 6% 70%  
446 6% 64%  
447 4% 58%  
448 9% 53% Median
449 6% 45%  
450 6% 39%  
451 6% 33%  
452 5% 27%  
453 4% 22%  
454 4% 18%  
455 3% 13%  
456 2% 10%  
457 2% 8%  
458 2% 6%  
459 1.1% 4%  
460 1.1% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.4% 1.3%  
463 0.4% 0.9%  
464 0.2% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.2% 99.7%  
394 0.3% 99.5%  
395 0.3% 99.2%  
396 0.6% 98.9%  
397 0.6% 98%  
398 0.8% 98%  
399 0.9% 97%  
400 1.4% 96%  
401 2% 94%  
402 3% 92%  
403 3% 89%  
404 5% 87%  
405 5% 82%  
406 4% 77%  
407 6% 73%  
408 5% 67%  
409 6% 62%  
410 5% 56% Median
411 9% 51%  
412 6% 42%  
413 6% 37%  
414 7% 31%  
415 4% 24%  
416 4% 20%  
417 3% 17%  
418 3% 14%  
419 2% 10%  
420 2% 8%  
421 2% 6%  
422 2% 4%  
423 0.9% 3%  
424 0.6% 2%  
425 0.5% 1.4%  
426 0.3% 0.9%  
427 0.2% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.3% 99.6%  
365 0.4% 99.3%  
366 0.4% 98.9%  
367 0.6% 98%  
368 1.1% 98%  
369 1.1% 97%  
370 1.2% 96%  
371 2% 95%  
372 2% 92%  
373 2% 90%  
374 4% 88%  
375 3% 84%  
376 8% 81%  
377 5% 73%  
378 6% 68%  
379 5% 61%  
380 8% 56%  
381 6% 48% Median
382 4% 42%  
383 6% 38%  
384 5% 32%  
385 5% 27%  
386 3% 22%  
387 4% 19%  
388 2% 15%  
389 3% 13%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 7%  
392 2% 6%  
393 0.9% 3%  
394 0.7% 2%  
395 0.7% 2%  
396 0.4% 1.1%  
397 0.3% 0.7%  
398 0.2% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.7%  
349 0.3% 99.6%  
350 0.3% 99.3%  
351 0.5% 99.0%  
352 0.6% 98.5%  
353 1.2% 98%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 2% 96% Majority
356 2% 94%  
357 3% 93%  
358 3% 89%  
359 3% 87%  
360 5% 84%  
361 4% 78%  
362 6% 74%  
363 6% 69%  
364 5% 62%  
365 5% 57%  
366 7% 52% Median
367 6% 45%  
368 6% 39%  
369 6% 33%  
370 6% 27%  
371 4% 22%  
372 4% 18%  
373 3% 14%  
374 3% 11%  
375 2% 8%  
376 2% 6%  
377 0.8% 4%  
378 1.1% 3%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.1%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.2% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.2% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0.3% 99.4%  
343 0.4% 99.1%  
344 0.5% 98.7%  
345 1.0% 98%  
346 1.0% 97%  
347 2% 96%  
348 2% 94%  
349 2% 93%  
350 3% 90%  
351 2% 87%  
352 5% 85%  
353 4% 80%  
354 6% 77%  
355 6% 71% Majority
356 5% 65%  
357 6% 60%  
358 6% 54% Median
359 6% 48%  
360 7% 42%  
361 5% 35%  
362 5% 30%  
363 4% 25%  
364 5% 21%  
365 4% 16%  
366 3% 12%  
367 2% 9%  
368 2% 8%  
369 1.1% 6%  
370 1.3% 4%  
371 1.1% 3%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.5% 1.4%  
374 0.3% 0.9%  
375 0.3% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.2% 99.7%  
312 0.3% 99.6%  
313 0.4% 99.3%  
314 0.7% 98.9%  
315 0.7% 98%  
316 0.9% 98%  
317 2% 97%  
318 2% 94%  
319 2% 93%  
320 3% 90%  
321 2% 87%  
322 4% 85%  
323 3% 81%  
324 5% 78%  
325 5% 73%  
326 6% 68%  
327 4% 62%  
328 6% 58% Median
329 8% 52%  
330 5% 44%  
331 6% 39%  
332 5% 32%  
333 8% 27%  
334 3% 19%  
335 4% 16%  
336 2% 12%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 8%  
339 1.2% 5%  
340 1.1% 4%  
341 1.1% 3%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.4% 1.1%  
345 0.3% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.7%  
312 0.3% 99.5%  
313 0.4% 99.3%  
314 0.5% 98.9%  
315 0.7% 98%  
316 1.0% 98%  
317 1.4% 97%  
318 1.5% 95%  
319 2% 94%  
320 2% 92%  
321 3% 89%  
322 5% 87%  
323 4% 82%  
324 7% 78%  
325 5% 71%  
326 5% 66%  
327 7% 61%  
328 6% 54% Median
329 5% 48%  
330 6% 42%  
331 4% 36%  
332 6% 32%  
333 5% 26%  
334 4% 21%  
335 4% 17%  
336 3% 13%  
337 3% 10%  
338 2% 7%  
339 1.3% 6%  
340 1.1% 4%  
341 0.8% 3%  
342 0.7% 2%  
343 0.6% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.0%  
345 0.3% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.2% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.4% 99.4%  
284 0.5% 99.0%  
285 0.7% 98.5%  
286 0.9% 98%  
287 1.3% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 2% 95%  
290 3% 92%  
291 2% 90%  
292 4% 87%  
293 5% 83%  
294 4% 78%  
295 7% 74%  
296 4% 67%  
297 6% 62%  
298 8% 57%  
299 5% 49% Median
300 6% 43%  
301 6% 37%  
302 4% 31%  
303 5% 27%  
304 4% 21%  
305 3% 17%  
306 2% 14%  
307 4% 12%  
308 1.2% 8%  
309 2% 7%  
310 1.3% 5%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 1.0% 2%  
313 0.4% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0.2% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.2% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.5%  
276 0.5% 99.3%  
277 0.6% 98.8%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 1.4% 97%  
281 2% 95%  
282 3% 94%  
283 3% 91%  
284 4% 88%  
285 3% 84%  
286 4% 81%  
287 7% 77%  
288 5% 70%  
289 5% 65%  
290 7% 60%  
291 6% 53% Median
292 5% 46%  
293 7% 42%  
294 6% 35%  
295 4% 29%  
296 5% 24%  
297 4% 19%  
298 2% 15%  
299 4% 13%  
300 2% 9%  
301 2% 7%  
302 1.4% 5%  
303 1.2% 4%  
304 0.7% 3%  
305 0.7% 2%  
306 0.6% 1.3%  
307 0.2% 0.8%  
308 0.2% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.3% 99.5%  
261 0.5% 99.3%  
262 0.5% 98.8%  
263 0.6% 98%  
264 1.3% 98%  
265 2% 96%  
266 2% 95%  
267 2% 93%  
268 4% 91%  
269 3% 87%  
270 4% 85%  
271 4% 80%  
272 6% 76%  
273 4% 71%  
274 6% 66%  
275 8% 60%  
276 6% 52% Median
277 4% 47%  
278 8% 43%  
279 6% 35%  
280 5% 29%  
281 3% 24%  
282 5% 20%  
283 3% 15%  
284 3% 12%  
285 2% 9%  
286 2% 7%  
287 1.4% 5%  
288 1.1% 4%  
289 1.0% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.3% 1.1%  
292 0.3% 0.8%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0.1% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.2% 99.7%  
187 0.3% 99.5%  
188 0.5% 99.2%  
189 0.7% 98.7%  
190 1.1% 98%  
191 1.3% 97%  
192 2% 96%  
193 2% 93%  
194 4% 91%  
195 3% 88%  
196 6% 85%  
197 4% 79%  
198 7% 75%  
199 6% 69%  
200 7% 63%  
201 7% 56% Median
202 7% 49%  
203 6% 42%  
204 5% 36%  
205 8% 31%  
206 3% 23%  
207 5% 20%  
208 3% 15%  
209 3% 11%  
210 2% 8%  
211 2% 6%  
212 2% 5%  
213 1.0% 3%  
214 0.8% 2%  
215 0.4% 1.4%  
216 0.4% 1.0%  
217 0.2% 0.6%  
218 0.2% 0.4%  
219 0.1% 0.2%  
220 0.1% 0.1%  
221 0% 0.1%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.7%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.5% 99.1%  
160 0.5% 98.6%  
161 1.1% 98%  
162 1.4% 97%  
163 3% 96%  
164 2% 93%  
165 5% 91%  
166 4% 86%  
167 6% 82%  
168 4% 76%  
169 5% 72%  
170 6% 67%  
171 8% 61% Median
172 7% 53%  
173 10% 47%  
174 7% 37%  
175 7% 30%  
176 5% 23%  
177 5% 18%  
178 2% 13%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.0% 4%  
183 1.2% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.5% 1.2%  
186 0.2% 0.7%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations