Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 23–26 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.9–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 173 164–182 162–184 160–187 156–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 143 135–152 133–154 131–156 127–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 113–128 111–131 109–133 105–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 84–98 82–100 81–101 77–105
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 84–97 82–99 80–101 77–105
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 31 26–34 25–35 24–36 23–40

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.5%  
157 0.3% 99.3%  
158 0.4% 99.0%  
159 0.6% 98.6%  
160 1.0% 98%  
161 1.3% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 3% 94%  
164 2% 92%  
165 3% 89%  
166 3% 87%  
167 4% 83%  
168 4% 80%  
169 6% 75%  
170 6% 69%  
171 4% 64%  
172 6% 59%  
173 5% 54% Median
174 7% 49%  
175 6% 42%  
176 6% 36%  
177 4% 29%  
178 4% 26%  
179 3% 22%  
180 3% 18%  
181 3% 15%  
182 2% 12%  
183 2% 9%  
184 2% 7%  
185 1.3% 5%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.5% 2%  
190 0.5% 1.1%  
191 0.2% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.3% 99.4%  
129 0.5% 99.0%  
130 1.0% 98.5%  
131 1.2% 98%  
132 1.2% 96%  
133 1.3% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 4% 92%  
136 4% 88%  
137 4% 84%  
138 3% 80%  
139 5% 76%  
140 6% 71%  
141 7% 65%  
142 7% 58%  
143 5% 52% Median
144 5% 47%  
145 5% 41%  
146 8% 36%  
147 4% 28%  
148 4% 24%  
149 3% 19%  
150 3% 17%  
151 4% 14%  
152 3% 10%  
153 2% 7%  
154 1.0% 5%  
155 0.9% 4%  
156 1.0% 3%  
157 0.8% 2%  
158 0.6% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.7%  
161 0.1% 0.5%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.4% 99.2%  
108 0.8% 98.8%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 1.2% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 94%  
113 3% 91%  
114 4% 88%  
115 3% 84%  
116 4% 80%  
117 6% 76%  
118 8% 70%  
119 7% 62%  
120 6% 56% Median
121 5% 50%  
122 6% 45%  
123 8% 38%  
124 5% 30%  
125 4% 25%  
126 4% 21%  
127 4% 17%  
128 4% 13%  
129 2% 9%  
130 2% 7%  
131 1.4% 5%  
132 1.2% 4%  
133 1.0% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.2%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.4% 99.4%  
79 0.6% 99.0%  
80 0.9% 98%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 2% 94%  
84 4% 92%  
85 5% 88%  
86 5% 83%  
87 8% 78%  
88 7% 70%  
89 8% 63%  
90 7% 55% Median
91 6% 47%  
92 6% 41%  
93 6% 35%  
94 5% 29% Last Result
95 5% 25%  
96 4% 19%  
97 4% 15%  
98 3% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 1.4% 5%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.5% 99.4%  
79 0.7% 99.0%  
80 1.4% 98% Last Result
81 1.5% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 3% 94%  
84 4% 91%  
85 4% 86%  
86 5% 82%  
87 7% 77%  
88 8% 70%  
89 8% 63%  
90 7% 55% Median
91 6% 48%  
92 6% 42%  
93 7% 36%  
94 6% 29%  
95 5% 23%  
96 5% 18%  
97 3% 13%  
98 3% 10%  
99 2% 7%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 99.1%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 7% 88%  
57 6% 81%  
58 8% 76%  
59 8% 68%  
60 9% 59%  
61 9% 50% Median
62 9% 41%  
63 7% 32%  
64 6% 25%  
65 6% 19%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 4% Last Result
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.8%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 5% 96%  
26 8% 90%  
27 8% 82%  
28 4% 75%  
29 4% 70%  
30 6% 66%  
31 12% 60% Median
32 15% 49%  
33 17% 33%  
34 9% 16%  
35 4% 7%  
36 1.2% 3%  
37 0.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 1.1%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 468 100% 458–477 455–480 452–482 447–487
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 437 100% 427–447 424–450 422–452 417–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 385 100% 374–395 371–397 369–400 364–405
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 384 100% 374–394 371–397 368–400 363–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 355 52% 344–365 342–368 339–370 334–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 354 48% 344–365 341–367 339–370 333–375
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 347 17% 336–357 333–360 331–362 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 294 0% 284–304 281–307 279–310 274–314
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 294 0% 284–304 281–306 278–310 274–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 264 0% 254–274 251–277 249–279 244–285
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 265 0% 254–274 252–277 249–279 244–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 211 0% 202–221 199–223 197–225 193–230
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 172–190 170–193 167–195 163–199

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0.1% 99.6%  
448 0.2% 99.5%  
449 0.3% 99.3%  
450 0.4% 99.0%  
451 0.5% 98.6%  
452 0.8% 98%  
453 1.0% 97%  
454 1.3% 96%  
455 1.0% 95%  
456 2% 94%  
457 2% 92%  
458 2% 90%  
459 3% 88%  
460 3% 85%  
461 4% 82%  
462 4% 78%  
463 5% 74%  
464 4% 69%  
465 5% 65%  
466 6% 60% Last Result
467 4% 55% Median
468 5% 50%  
469 6% 45%  
470 5% 39%  
471 6% 35%  
472 4% 29%  
473 4% 25%  
474 4% 21%  
475 4% 18%  
476 2% 14%  
477 2% 11%  
478 2% 9%  
479 2% 7%  
480 1.0% 5%  
481 1.0% 4%  
482 1.0% 3%  
483 0.6% 2%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 0.3% 1.1%  
486 0.2% 0.8%  
487 0.2% 0.5%  
488 0.1% 0.3%  
489 0.1% 0.2%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.2% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0.3% 99.4%  
419 0.3% 99.1%  
420 0.5% 98.8%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.6% 98%  
423 1.4% 97%  
424 0.9% 96%  
425 3% 95%  
426 1.2% 92%  
427 3% 91%  
428 2% 89%  
429 3% 87%  
430 3% 84%  
431 3% 80%  
432 4% 77%  
433 4% 73%  
434 5% 69%  
435 4% 64%  
436 6% 60%  
437 4% 53% Median
438 6% 49%  
439 4% 43%  
440 5% 39%  
441 5% 34%  
442 4% 30%  
443 4% 26%  
444 5% 22%  
445 3% 17%  
446 3% 14%  
447 2% 11%  
448 2% 9%  
449 2% 8%  
450 1.5% 6%  
451 1.0% 4%  
452 1.1% 3%  
453 0.6% 2%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.4% 1.4%  
456 0.4% 1.0%  
457 0.2% 0.6%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0.1% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.2%  
367 0.3% 98.9%  
368 0.4% 98.6%  
369 0.9% 98%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 2% 96%  
372 1.2% 94%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 91%  
375 3% 89%  
376 2% 86%  
377 3% 84%  
378 3% 81%  
379 4% 78%  
380 4% 74%  
381 4% 69%  
382 4% 65%  
383 3% 61%  
384 6% 58% Median
385 5% 52%  
386 4% 47%  
387 4% 42%  
388 6% 38%  
389 4% 33%  
390 5% 29%  
391 3% 24%  
392 4% 21%  
393 3% 17%  
394 3% 14%  
395 2% 11%  
396 3% 9%  
397 1.3% 6%  
398 1.0% 5%  
399 1.0% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.3%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.3% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.2% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.5% 98.7%  
368 0.8% 98%  
369 0.7% 97%  
370 1.4% 97%  
371 1.1% 95%  
372 1.4% 94%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 91%  
375 2% 89%  
376 2% 86%  
377 4% 84%  
378 4% 80%  
379 4% 77%  
380 5% 73%  
381 4% 68%  
382 6% 64%  
383 5% 58% Median
384 4% 54%  
385 7% 50%  
386 5% 43%  
387 4% 38%  
388 3% 34%  
389 4% 30%  
390 4% 26%  
391 3% 21%  
392 4% 19%  
393 3% 15%  
394 2% 12%  
395 2% 10%  
396 1.5% 7%  
397 1.4% 6%  
398 0.8% 5%  
399 1.2% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.1%  
404 0.3% 0.7%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.3% 99.4%  
336 0.3% 99.2%  
337 0.5% 98.9%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 0.8% 98%  
340 0.5% 97%  
341 0.9% 96%  
342 1.2% 96%  
343 3% 94%  
344 2% 91%  
345 2% 89%  
346 3% 87%  
347 2% 84%  
348 3% 82%  
349 4% 79%  
350 4% 75%  
351 6% 71%  
352 5% 64%  
353 3% 59%  
354 4% 56% Median
355 6% 52% Majority
356 5% 46%  
357 6% 41%  
358 5% 35%  
359 4% 30%  
360 3% 26%  
361 3% 23%  
362 3% 20%  
363 4% 17%  
364 4% 14%  
365 2% 10%  
366 1.0% 8%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 0.8% 4%  
370 1.2% 4%  
371 0.7% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.2%  
374 0.2% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.2% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.2% 99.3%  
336 0.3% 99.1%  
337 0.4% 98.8%  
338 0.7% 98%  
339 1.2% 98%  
340 0.8% 96%  
341 0.9% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 1.0% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 4% 90%  
346 4% 86%  
347 3% 83%  
348 3% 80%  
349 3% 77%  
350 4% 74%  
351 5% 70%  
352 6% 65%  
353 5% 59%  
354 6% 54% Median
355 4% 48% Majority
356 3% 44%  
357 5% 41%  
358 6% 36%  
359 4% 29%  
360 4% 25%  
361 3% 21%  
362 2% 18%  
363 3% 16%  
364 2% 13%  
365 2% 11%  
366 3% 9%  
367 1.2% 6%  
368 0.9% 4%  
369 0.5% 4%  
370 0.8% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.1%  
374 0.3% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.5%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.4% 99.2%  
329 0.4% 98.8%  
330 0.5% 98%  
331 0.8% 98%  
332 0.9% 97%  
333 1.2% 96%  
334 1.2% 95%  
335 1.1% 94%  
336 3% 93%  
337 2% 90%  
338 3% 88%  
339 4% 85%  
340 3% 82%  
341 5% 78%  
342 3% 74%  
343 5% 71%  
344 6% 66%  
345 4% 60%  
346 5% 56%  
347 4% 51% Median
348 6% 47%  
349 4% 41%  
350 3% 37%  
351 7% 34%  
352 4% 27%  
353 3% 23%  
354 2% 20%  
355 4% 17% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 1.0% 4%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 0.7% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.4%  
366 0.4% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.6%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.2% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 99.4%  
276 0.4% 99.1%  
277 0.5% 98.8%  
278 0.8% 98%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 0.9% 97%  
281 1.3% 96%  
282 1.4% 95%  
283 2% 93%  
284 2% 91%  
285 3% 89%  
286 3% 86%  
287 4% 84%  
288 4% 80%  
289 4% 76%  
290 4% 72%  
291 5% 68%  
292 4% 62%  
293 5% 58%  
294 4% 53% Median
295 6% 49%  
296 4% 43%  
297 6% 40%  
298 4% 34%  
299 5% 30%  
300 3% 25%  
301 3% 22%  
302 4% 18%  
303 2% 15%  
304 3% 12%  
305 2% 10%  
306 2% 8%  
307 1.3% 6%  
308 0.9% 5%  
309 1.3% 4%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.4% 1.4%  
313 0.3% 1.0%  
314 0.2% 0.7%  
315 0.2% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.2% 99.6%  
275 0.6% 99.3%  
276 0.5% 98.8%  
277 0.7% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 1.1% 96%  
282 1.3% 95%  
283 2% 93%  
284 3% 91%  
285 4% 88%  
286 4% 84%  
287 3% 81%  
288 3% 78%  
289 3% 75%  
290 3% 72%  
291 6% 69%  
292 6% 64%  
293 5% 58% Median
294 8% 53%  
295 7% 44%  
296 5% 37%  
297 3% 32%  
298 3% 29%  
299 2% 27%  
300 3% 24%  
301 3% 21%  
302 4% 18%  
303 3% 14%  
304 3% 11%  
305 2% 8%  
306 1.2% 6%  
307 0.8% 5%  
308 0.5% 4%  
309 0.7% 3%  
310 0.5% 3%  
311 0.7% 2%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.4% 1.0%  
314 0.2% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.2% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.4%  
246 0.3% 99.2%  
247 0.5% 99.0%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.9% 98%  
250 1.1% 97%  
251 1.3% 96%  
252 1.0% 95%  
253 2% 94%  
254 2% 92%  
255 3% 90%  
256 3% 87%  
257 4% 84%  
258 4% 80%  
259 3% 76%  
260 3% 73%  
261 5% 70%  
262 7% 65%  
263 7% 59%  
264 5% 52% Median
265 4% 46%  
266 3% 42%  
267 3% 39%  
268 5% 36%  
269 6% 30%  
270 6% 24%  
271 3% 19%  
272 3% 16%  
273 2% 13%  
274 2% 11%  
275 2% 10%  
276 2% 8%  
277 2% 6%  
278 2% 4%  
279 0.6% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.3% 2%  
282 0.3% 1.5%  
283 0.4% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.8%  
285 0.2% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.8%  
244 0.2% 99.6%  
245 0.3% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.1%  
247 0.3% 98.9%  
248 0.8% 98.6%  
249 0.8% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.8% 96%  
252 2% 95%  
253 2% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 1.4% 89%  
256 4% 88%  
257 5% 84%  
258 4% 79%  
259 3% 75%  
260 5% 72%  
261 5% 67%  
262 4% 62%  
263 3% 58%  
264 4% 55% Median
265 6% 51%  
266 7% 44%  
267 5% 37%  
268 4% 33%  
269 6% 29%  
270 4% 23%  
271 3% 19%  
272 2% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 3% 12%  
275 2% 9%  
276 1.2% 7%  
277 1.3% 6%  
278 1.3% 4%  
279 1.0% 3%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.3% 2%  
282 0.5% 1.5%  
283 0.4% 1.0%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0.2% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.3% 99.5%  
194 0.4% 99.2%  
195 0.5% 98.8%  
196 0.6% 98%  
197 1.0% 98%  
198 1.1% 97%  
199 2% 96%  
200 1.4% 94%  
201 3% 93%  
202 2% 90%  
203 4% 88%  
204 3% 84%  
205 4% 81%  
206 4% 77%  
207 6% 73%  
208 4% 67%  
209 4% 63%  
210 6% 59% Median
211 6% 53%  
212 4% 48%  
213 6% 43%  
214 5% 37%  
215 5% 33%  
216 5% 27%  
217 3% 22%  
218 4% 19%  
219 2% 15%  
220 3% 13%  
221 3% 10%  
222 2% 8%  
223 1.3% 6%  
224 1.1% 5%  
225 1.2% 4%  
226 0.6% 2%  
227 0.5% 2%  
228 0.4% 1.3%  
229 0.2% 0.8%  
230 0.2% 0.6%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 0.2% 99.5%  
165 0.4% 99.3%  
166 0.5% 98.9%  
167 1.0% 98%  
168 0.9% 97%  
169 1.0% 97%  
170 2% 96%  
171 2% 94%  
172 3% 92%  
173 3% 90%  
174 3% 86%  
175 3% 83%  
176 5% 80%  
177 4% 75%  
178 7% 71%  
179 4% 64%  
180 6% 60%  
181 6% 54% Median
182 6% 49%  
183 7% 43%  
184 5% 36%  
185 4% 31%  
186 4% 27%  
187 5% 23%  
188 4% 18%  
189 4% 15%  
190 2% 11%  
191 2% 9%  
192 1.4% 7%  
193 2% 6%  
194 1.3% 4%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.4% 2%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 0.8%  
200 0.1% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations