Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 April–3 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 24.0% 22.8–25.2% 22.5–25.6% 22.2–25.9% 21.7–26.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.7% 16.9–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 181 172–190 169–193 167–195 163–199
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 143 135–152 133–154 131–156 127–160
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 106–121 104–123 102–125 98–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 84–98 81–100 80–101 78–105
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 84–97 82–100 80–101 77–105
Die Linke 69 53 48–58 46–60 45–61 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–43 32–44 31–45 29–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.6%  
164 0.3% 99.5%  
165 0.5% 99.2%  
166 0.5% 98.7%  
167 0.9% 98%  
168 1.1% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 3% 91%  
173 2% 88%  
174 3% 86%  
175 4% 82%  
176 4% 78%  
177 5% 74%  
178 6% 69%  
179 5% 63%  
180 6% 58%  
181 7% 51% Median
182 4% 45%  
183 6% 40%  
184 5% 35%  
185 5% 30%  
186 4% 25%  
187 4% 21%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 14%  
190 3% 11%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.1% 6%  
193 2% 5%  
194 0.9% 4%  
195 0.7% 3%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.5% 1.4%  
198 0.3% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.6%  
200 0.2% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.3% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 99.3%  
129 0.5% 98.9%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 1.2% 97%  
133 2% 96%  
134 2% 94%  
135 3% 92%  
136 4% 90%  
137 6% 85%  
138 4% 80%  
139 4% 76%  
140 5% 72%  
141 6% 67%  
142 6% 61%  
143 7% 55% Median
144 9% 48%  
145 8% 39%  
146 5% 32%  
147 4% 27%  
148 4% 23%  
149 4% 18%  
150 3% 15%  
151 2% 12%  
152 2% 10%  
153 2% 8%  
154 2% 6%  
155 1.3% 4%  
156 1.0% 3%  
157 0.5% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.4%  
159 0.3% 1.0%  
160 0.2% 0.7%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.7%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.5% 99.2%  
101 0.8% 98.7%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 3% 93%  
106 3% 90%  
107 4% 87%  
108 6% 83%  
109 4% 78%  
110 9% 73%  
111 6% 64%  
112 8% 58% Median
113 6% 50%  
114 5% 43%  
115 6% 38%  
116 5% 32%  
117 4% 27%  
118 4% 23%  
119 5% 19%  
120 3% 14%  
121 3% 11%  
122 2% 7%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.0% 4%  
125 0.7% 3%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.5% 1.3%  
128 0.4% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.5%  
79 0.9% 99.0%  
80 1.3% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 2% 93%  
84 2% 91%  
85 3% 89%  
86 4% 86%  
87 7% 82%  
88 9% 75%  
89 9% 67%  
90 10% 57% Median
91 9% 47%  
92 6% 38%  
93 4% 32%  
94 4% 28% Last Result
95 4% 24%  
96 4% 20%  
97 5% 17%  
98 4% 12%  
99 3% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.3% 3%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.1%  
104 0.2% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.4%  
79 0.6% 99.0%  
80 1.1% 98% Last Result
81 1.2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 2% 94%  
84 3% 92%  
85 5% 88%  
86 6% 83%  
87 6% 77%  
88 7% 71%  
89 8% 64%  
90 9% 56% Median
91 7% 47%  
92 6% 41%  
93 6% 34%  
94 6% 29%  
95 6% 23%  
96 4% 17%  
97 3% 13%  
98 2% 10%  
99 2% 7%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 1.1% 99.1%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 5% 90%  
49 6% 85%  
50 7% 79%  
51 10% 72%  
52 9% 62%  
53 9% 53% Median
54 10% 44%  
55 9% 35%  
56 6% 26%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 3% 97%  
33 5% 94%  
34 7% 90%  
35 8% 83%  
36 9% 75%  
37 11% 66%  
38 11% 55% Median
39 11% 44%  
40 9% 33%  
41 8% 24%  
42 5% 16%  
43 4% 11%  
44 3% 7%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.1% 2% Last Result
47 0.6% 1.3%  
48 0.4% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 465–485 463–487 460–490 455–494
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 452 100% 443–462 440–465 437–467 433–472
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 385 100% 375–395 372–398 370–400 364–405
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 384 100% 374–394 371–397 368–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 83% 352–373 349–375 346–378 342–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 362 82% 352–372 349–375 346–378 341–383
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 17% 336–357 334–360 331–363 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 294 0% 284–304 282–307 279–310 274–315
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 294 0% 284–304 281–307 278–309 274–314
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 272 0% 262–282 259–285 256–287 252–292
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 271 0% 262–282 259–285 256–287 252–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 203 0% 195–213 192–216 190–218 186–222
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 157–175 155–177 153–179 149–184

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0.1% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.2% 99.7%  
456 0.2% 99.5%  
457 0.3% 99.2%  
458 0.4% 99.0%  
459 0.5% 98.5%  
460 0.8% 98%  
461 1.2% 97%  
462 1.0% 96%  
463 2% 95%  
464 2% 93%  
465 2% 92%  
466 2% 89% Last Result
467 4% 88%  
468 3% 83%  
469 3% 80%  
470 6% 77%  
471 3% 71%  
472 5% 68%  
473 5% 62%  
474 5% 57% Median
475 7% 53%  
476 5% 46%  
477 4% 41%  
478 5% 37%  
479 5% 32%  
480 4% 27%  
481 4% 24%  
482 4% 19%  
483 3% 16%  
484 3% 13%  
485 2% 10%  
486 2% 8%  
487 1.3% 6%  
488 1.1% 5%  
489 1.1% 4%  
490 0.7% 3%  
491 0.5% 2%  
492 0.5% 1.4%  
493 0.3% 0.9%  
494 0.2% 0.6%  
495 0.2% 0.4%  
496 0.1% 0.3%  
497 0.1% 0.2%  
498 0.1% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0.1% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.8%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.6%  
433 0.2% 99.5%  
434 0.3% 99.3%  
435 0.4% 99.0%  
436 0.6% 98.7%  
437 0.7% 98%  
438 0.8% 97%  
439 0.8% 97%  
440 1.4% 96%  
441 2% 94%  
442 3% 93%  
443 2% 90%  
444 3% 88%  
445 3% 85%  
446 4% 82%  
447 4% 78%  
448 5% 74%  
449 5% 70%  
450 5% 65%  
451 4% 60%  
452 6% 56% Median
453 5% 50%  
454 6% 45%  
455 4% 39%  
456 5% 36%  
457 5% 31%  
458 4% 26%  
459 3% 22%  
460 4% 19%  
461 3% 14%  
462 3% 12%  
463 2% 9%  
464 2% 7%  
465 1.2% 6%  
466 0.9% 4%  
467 1.0% 3%  
468 0.6% 2%  
469 0.5% 2%  
470 0.4% 1.3%  
471 0.3% 0.9%  
472 0.2% 0.7%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.4% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.1%  
367 0.3% 98.8%  
368 0.3% 98%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 1.3% 97%  
372 2% 95%  
373 1.2% 94%  
374 1.5% 92%  
375 3% 91%  
376 3% 88%  
377 3% 85%  
378 4% 82%  
379 3% 78%  
380 4% 76%  
381 7% 71%  
382 5% 64%  
383 4% 59% Median
384 5% 55%  
385 5% 50%  
386 5% 45%  
387 6% 40%  
388 4% 33%  
389 4% 29%  
390 4% 26%  
391 4% 22%  
392 4% 19%  
393 2% 15%  
394 2% 13%  
395 2% 11%  
396 1.4% 9%  
397 2% 8%  
398 1.5% 6%  
399 1.2% 4%  
400 0.6% 3%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.4%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.3% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.3% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.1%  
367 0.5% 98.8%  
368 0.8% 98%  
369 0.7% 97%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 0.9% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 2% 93%  
374 2% 91%  
375 2% 89%  
376 4% 87%  
377 3% 83%  
378 3% 81%  
379 4% 77%  
380 5% 73%  
381 4% 68%  
382 5% 64%  
383 6% 60% Median
384 4% 54%  
385 6% 50%  
386 6% 44%  
387 5% 38%  
388 3% 33%  
389 5% 30%  
390 5% 25%  
391 3% 21%  
392 2% 17%  
393 2% 15%  
394 3% 13%  
395 2% 10%  
396 1.1% 8%  
397 2% 7%  
398 1.3% 5%  
399 0.8% 4%  
400 0.6% 3%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.1%  
404 0.3% 0.8%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.3% 99.3%  
344 0.4% 99.0%  
345 0.5% 98.7%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 0.9% 97%  
349 1.0% 96%  
350 1.2% 95%  
351 2% 94%  
352 2% 92%  
353 2% 89%  
354 4% 87%  
355 3% 83% Majority
356 3% 80%  
357 5% 77%  
358 4% 72%  
359 4% 68%  
360 5% 64%  
361 4% 59% Median
362 5% 55%  
363 5% 49%  
364 4% 45%  
365 6% 40%  
366 4% 34%  
367 5% 30%  
368 5% 25%  
369 3% 20%  
370 3% 18%  
371 2% 15%  
372 2% 12%  
373 2% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 1.4% 6%  
376 1.4% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.9% 3%  
379 0.5% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.5%  
381 0.4% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.2% 0.6%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.6%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.3% 99.3%  
344 0.4% 99.0%  
345 0.5% 98.6%  
346 0.7% 98%  
347 1.0% 97%  
348 1.0% 96%  
349 1.1% 95%  
350 2% 94%  
351 2% 93%  
352 2% 90%  
353 3% 88%  
354 4% 86%  
355 3% 82% Majority
356 3% 79%  
357 4% 76%  
358 6% 72%  
359 3% 66%  
360 6% 63%  
361 4% 57%  
362 6% 53% Median
363 4% 47%  
364 5% 42%  
365 4% 37%  
366 5% 33%  
367 4% 29%  
368 3% 25%  
369 4% 21%  
370 3% 17%  
371 2% 14%  
372 3% 12%  
373 2% 9%  
374 2% 7%  
375 1.3% 6%  
376 1.0% 4%  
377 0.9% 3%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.4%  
381 0.3% 1.0%  
382 0.2% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.4% 99.3%  
329 0.3% 98.8%  
330 0.5% 98.5%  
331 0.9% 98%  
332 0.6% 97%  
333 1.4% 96%  
334 1.4% 95%  
335 2% 94%  
336 2% 92%  
337 2% 90%  
338 2% 88%  
339 3% 85%  
340 3% 82%  
341 5% 80%  
342 5% 75%  
343 4% 70%  
344 6% 66%  
345 4% 60%  
346 5% 55% Median
347 5% 51%  
348 4% 45%  
349 5% 41%  
350 4% 36%  
351 4% 32%  
352 5% 28%  
353 3% 23%  
354 3% 20%  
355 4% 17% Majority
356 2% 13%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 8%  
359 1.2% 6%  
360 1.0% 5%  
361 0.9% 4%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.3%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.3% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.3%  
276 0.4% 99.2%  
277 0.3% 98.8%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.6% 98%  
280 1.2% 97%  
281 0.7% 96%  
282 2% 95%  
283 1.0% 93%  
284 3% 92%  
285 2% 89%  
286 4% 87%  
287 3% 84%  
288 4% 81%  
289 6% 77%  
290 3% 71%  
291 6% 68%  
292 5% 62%  
293 6% 57% Median
294 2% 51%  
295 7% 48%  
296 4% 42%  
297 6% 37%  
298 4% 32%  
299 4% 28%  
300 4% 24%  
301 2% 20%  
302 3% 18%  
303 2% 14%  
304 3% 12%  
305 1.2% 9%  
306 2% 8%  
307 0.8% 6%  
308 2% 5%  
309 0.4% 3%  
310 1.0% 3%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.4% 1.5%  
313 0.3% 1.1%  
314 0.2% 0.8%  
315 0.2% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0.1% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0.2% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.3%  
276 0.5% 99.1%  
277 0.6% 98.6%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 0.8% 97%  
280 0.9% 97%  
281 1.4% 96%  
282 2% 94%  
283 1.4% 92%  
284 3% 91%  
285 2% 88%  
286 3% 86%  
287 5% 83%  
288 3% 78%  
289 5% 75%  
290 4% 71%  
291 5% 66%  
292 5% 61%  
293 4% 56% Median
294 6% 52%  
295 5% 45%  
296 5% 41%  
297 4% 36%  
298 4% 32%  
299 4% 27%  
300 4% 23%  
301 4% 20%  
302 2% 16%  
303 3% 13%  
304 2% 11%  
305 2% 9%  
306 2% 7%  
307 1.3% 5%  
308 0.9% 4%  
309 0.8% 3%  
310 0.5% 2%  
311 0.4% 2%  
312 0.5% 1.4%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.2% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.3% 99.4%  
254 0.4% 99.1%  
255 0.6% 98.8%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 1.0% 97%  
259 1.2% 96%  
260 2% 94%  
261 2% 93%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 89%  
264 3% 87%  
265 4% 84%  
266 4% 80%  
267 5% 76%  
268 4% 72%  
269 6% 67%  
270 5% 61%  
271 6% 56% Median
272 7% 50%  
273 4% 44%  
274 4% 40%  
275 4% 36%  
276 4% 32%  
277 4% 28%  
278 4% 24%  
279 4% 19%  
280 3% 16%  
281 2% 13%  
282 2% 10%  
283 2% 8%  
284 1.5% 7%  
285 1.2% 5%  
286 0.9% 4%  
287 0.8% 3%  
288 0.5% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.4% 1.2%  
291 0.3% 0.9%  
292 0.2% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.4%  
254 0.3% 99.1%  
255 0.7% 98.8%  
256 0.7% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.8% 97%  
259 1.0% 96%  
260 1.1% 95%  
261 2% 94%  
262 3% 92%  
263 3% 89%  
264 4% 87%  
265 3% 83%  
266 3% 79%  
267 5% 76%  
268 4% 71%  
269 7% 67%  
270 6% 60%  
271 5% 54% Median
272 5% 49%  
273 4% 44%  
274 5% 40%  
275 5% 35%  
276 6% 31%  
277 3% 24%  
278 4% 21%  
279 3% 18%  
280 2% 15%  
281 3% 13%  
282 2% 10%  
283 2% 8%  
284 1.0% 6%  
285 0.9% 5%  
286 1.2% 4%  
287 0.8% 3%  
288 0.7% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.3% 1.2%  
291 0.2% 0.8%  
292 0.2% 0.7%  
293 0.2% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0.1% 100%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.2% 99.7%  
186 0.3% 99.5%  
187 0.4% 99.2%  
188 0.4% 98.8%  
189 0.4% 98%  
190 1.2% 98%  
191 1.4% 97%  
192 2% 95%  
193 2% 94%  
194 0.9% 92%  
195 3% 91%  
196 5% 88%  
197 4% 83%  
198 4% 79%  
199 3% 75%  
200 7% 72%  
201 7% 64%  
202 5% 57% Median
203 4% 52%  
204 3% 49%  
205 9% 46%  
206 5% 37%  
207 4% 32%  
208 3% 28%  
209 3% 25%  
210 5% 22%  
211 5% 17%  
212 2% 12%  
213 1.3% 10%  
214 1.2% 9%  
215 3% 8%  
216 2% 5%  
217 0.6% 3%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.6% 2%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.5% 1.0%  
222 0.1% 0.6%  
223 0.1% 0.5%  
224 0.1% 0.4%  
225 0.1% 0.3%  
226 0.1% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.3%  
151 0.6% 99.0%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 0.9% 97%  
155 1.3% 96%  
156 2% 95%  
157 3% 93%  
158 2% 90%  
159 4% 87%  
160 5% 83%  
161 7% 79%  
162 5% 72%  
163 5% 67%  
164 5% 62%  
165 7% 57% Median
166 7% 50%  
167 5% 43%  
168 5% 39%  
169 5% 34%  
170 5% 29%  
171 3% 24%  
172 3% 21%  
173 3% 18%  
174 4% 15%  
175 3% 11%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.3% 6%  
178 1.2% 4%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.9% 2%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.1%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

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