Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 April–3 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
8.9% |
24.0% |
22.8–25.2% |
22.5–25.6% |
22.2–25.9% |
21.7–26.5% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
26.8% |
19.0% |
17.9–20.1% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.3–20.7% |
16.9–21.3% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
20.5% |
15.0% |
14.0–16.0% |
13.7–16.3% |
13.5–16.6% |
13.1–17.1% |
Alternative für Deutschland |
12.6% |
12.0% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.9–13.2% |
10.7–13.5% |
10.3–13.9% |
Freie Demokratische Partei |
10.7% |
12.0% |
11.1–13.0% |
10.9–13.2% |
10.7–13.5% |
10.3–13.9% |
Die Linke |
9.2% |
7.0% |
6.3–7.8% |
6.1–8.0% |
6.0–8.2% |
5.7–8.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
6.2% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
|
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
100% |
|
109 |
0% |
100% |
|
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
100% |
|
120 |
0% |
100% |
|
121 |
0% |
100% |
|
122 |
0% |
100% |
|
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
100% |
|
126 |
0% |
100% |
|
127 |
0% |
100% |
|
128 |
0% |
100% |
|
129 |
0% |
100% |
|
130 |
0% |
100% |
|
131 |
0% |
100% |
|
132 |
0% |
100% |
|
133 |
0% |
100% |
|
134 |
0% |
100% |
|
135 |
0% |
100% |
|
136 |
0% |
100% |
|
137 |
0% |
100% |
|
138 |
0% |
100% |
|
139 |
0% |
100% |
|
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
100% |
|
142 |
0% |
100% |
|
143 |
0% |
100% |
|
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
100% |
|
147 |
0% |
100% |
|
148 |
0% |
100% |
|
149 |
0% |
100% |
|
150 |
0% |
100% |
|
151 |
0% |
100% |
|
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
163 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
164 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
165 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
166 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
167 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
168 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
170 |
2% |
95% |
|
171 |
2% |
93% |
|
172 |
3% |
91% |
|
173 |
2% |
88% |
|
174 |
3% |
86% |
|
175 |
4% |
82% |
|
176 |
4% |
78% |
|
177 |
5% |
74% |
|
178 |
6% |
69% |
|
179 |
5% |
63% |
|
180 |
6% |
58% |
|
181 |
7% |
51% |
Median |
182 |
4% |
45% |
|
183 |
6% |
40% |
|
184 |
5% |
35% |
|
185 |
5% |
30% |
|
186 |
4% |
25% |
|
187 |
4% |
21% |
|
188 |
3% |
16% |
|
189 |
3% |
14% |
|
190 |
3% |
11% |
|
191 |
2% |
8% |
|
192 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
193 |
2% |
5% |
|
194 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
195 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
196 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
197 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
198 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
199 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
203 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
123 |
0% |
100% |
|
124 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
126 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
128 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
129 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
130 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
131 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
132 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
133 |
2% |
96% |
|
134 |
2% |
94% |
|
135 |
3% |
92% |
|
136 |
4% |
90% |
|
137 |
6% |
85% |
|
138 |
4% |
80% |
|
139 |
4% |
76% |
|
140 |
5% |
72% |
|
141 |
6% |
67% |
|
142 |
6% |
61% |
|
143 |
7% |
55% |
Median |
144 |
9% |
48% |
|
145 |
8% |
39% |
|
146 |
5% |
32% |
|
147 |
4% |
27% |
|
148 |
4% |
23% |
|
149 |
4% |
18% |
|
150 |
3% |
15% |
|
151 |
2% |
12% |
|
152 |
2% |
10% |
|
153 |
2% |
8% |
|
154 |
2% |
6% |
|
155 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
156 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
157 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
158 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
159 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
100 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
101 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
102 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
103 |
2% |
97% |
|
104 |
2% |
95% |
|
105 |
3% |
93% |
|
106 |
3% |
90% |
|
107 |
4% |
87% |
|
108 |
6% |
83% |
|
109 |
4% |
78% |
|
110 |
9% |
73% |
|
111 |
6% |
64% |
|
112 |
8% |
58% |
Median |
113 |
6% |
50% |
|
114 |
5% |
43% |
|
115 |
6% |
38% |
|
116 |
5% |
32% |
|
117 |
4% |
27% |
|
118 |
4% |
23% |
|
119 |
5% |
19% |
|
120 |
3% |
14% |
|
121 |
3% |
11% |
|
122 |
2% |
7% |
|
123 |
2% |
6% |
|
124 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
125 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
127 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
128 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
129 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
130 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
132 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
133 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alternative für Deutschland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
0.9% |
99.0% |
|
80 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
81 |
2% |
97% |
|
82 |
2% |
95% |
|
83 |
2% |
93% |
|
84 |
2% |
91% |
|
85 |
3% |
89% |
|
86 |
4% |
86% |
|
87 |
7% |
82% |
|
88 |
9% |
75% |
|
89 |
9% |
67% |
|
90 |
10% |
57% |
Median |
91 |
9% |
47% |
|
92 |
6% |
38% |
|
93 |
4% |
32% |
|
94 |
4% |
28% |
Last Result |
95 |
4% |
24% |
|
96 |
4% |
20% |
|
97 |
5% |
17% |
|
98 |
4% |
12% |
|
99 |
3% |
8% |
|
100 |
2% |
5% |
|
101 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
102 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
103 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
78 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
80 |
1.1% |
98% |
Last Result |
81 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
82 |
2% |
96% |
|
83 |
2% |
94% |
|
84 |
3% |
92% |
|
85 |
5% |
88% |
|
86 |
6% |
83% |
|
87 |
6% |
77% |
|
88 |
7% |
71% |
|
89 |
8% |
64% |
|
90 |
9% |
56% |
Median |
91 |
7% |
47% |
|
92 |
6% |
41% |
|
93 |
6% |
34% |
|
94 |
6% |
29% |
|
95 |
6% |
23% |
|
96 |
4% |
17% |
|
97 |
3% |
13% |
|
98 |
2% |
10% |
|
99 |
2% |
7% |
|
100 |
2% |
5% |
|
101 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
102 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
103 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
104 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
44 |
1.1% |
99.1% |
|
45 |
2% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
96% |
|
47 |
4% |
94% |
|
48 |
5% |
90% |
|
49 |
6% |
85% |
|
50 |
7% |
79% |
|
51 |
10% |
72% |
|
52 |
9% |
62% |
|
53 |
9% |
53% |
Median |
54 |
10% |
44% |
|
55 |
9% |
35% |
|
56 |
6% |
26% |
|
57 |
5% |
19% |
|
58 |
5% |
14% |
|
59 |
3% |
9% |
|
60 |
2% |
6% |
|
61 |
2% |
4% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
31 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
32 |
3% |
97% |
|
33 |
5% |
94% |
|
34 |
7% |
90% |
|
35 |
8% |
83% |
|
36 |
9% |
75% |
|
37 |
11% |
66% |
|
38 |
11% |
55% |
Median |
39 |
11% |
44% |
|
40 |
9% |
33% |
|
41 |
8% |
24% |
|
42 |
5% |
16% |
|
43 |
4% |
11% |
|
44 |
3% |
7% |
|
45 |
2% |
4% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
2% |
Last Result |
47 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
466 |
475 |
100% |
465–485 |
463–487 |
460–490 |
455–494 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
393 |
452 |
100% |
443–462 |
440–465 |
437–467 |
433–472 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
479 |
385 |
100% |
375–395 |
372–398 |
370–400 |
364–405 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei |
300 |
384 |
100% |
374–394 |
371–397 |
368–400 |
364–405 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
420 |
362 |
83% |
352–373 |
349–375 |
346–378 |
342–383 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
313 |
362 |
82% |
352–372 |
349–375 |
346–378 |
341–383 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke |
289 |
347 |
17% |
336–357 |
334–360 |
331–363 |
326–367 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
399 |
294 |
0% |
284–304 |
282–307 |
279–310 |
274–315 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
220 |
294 |
0% |
284–304 |
281–307 |
278–309 |
274–314 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
340 |
272 |
0% |
262–282 |
259–285 |
256–287 |
252–292 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
326 |
271 |
0% |
262–282 |
259–285 |
256–287 |
252–293 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei |
233 |
203 |
0% |
195–213 |
192–216 |
190–218 |
186–222 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke |
222 |
166 |
0% |
157–175 |
155–177 |
153–179 |
149–184 |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
450 |
0% |
100% |
|
451 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
452 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
453 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
454 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
455 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
456 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
457 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
458 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
459 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
460 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
461 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
462 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
463 |
2% |
95% |
|
464 |
2% |
93% |
|
465 |
2% |
92% |
|
466 |
2% |
89% |
Last Result |
467 |
4% |
88% |
|
468 |
3% |
83% |
|
469 |
3% |
80% |
|
470 |
6% |
77% |
|
471 |
3% |
71% |
|
472 |
5% |
68% |
|
473 |
5% |
62% |
|
474 |
5% |
57% |
Median |
475 |
7% |
53% |
|
476 |
5% |
46% |
|
477 |
4% |
41% |
|
478 |
5% |
37% |
|
479 |
5% |
32% |
|
480 |
4% |
27% |
|
481 |
4% |
24% |
|
482 |
4% |
19% |
|
483 |
3% |
16% |
|
484 |
3% |
13% |
|
485 |
2% |
10% |
|
486 |
2% |
8% |
|
487 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
488 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
489 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
490 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
491 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
492 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
493 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
494 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
495 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
496 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
497 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
498 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
499 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
500 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
393 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
394 |
0% |
100% |
|
395 |
0% |
100% |
|
396 |
0% |
100% |
|
397 |
0% |
100% |
|
398 |
0% |
100% |
|
399 |
0% |
100% |
|
400 |
0% |
100% |
|
401 |
0% |
100% |
|
402 |
0% |
100% |
|
403 |
0% |
100% |
|
404 |
0% |
100% |
|
405 |
0% |
100% |
|
406 |
0% |
100% |
|
407 |
0% |
100% |
|
408 |
0% |
100% |
|
409 |
0% |
100% |
|
410 |
0% |
100% |
|
411 |
0% |
100% |
|
412 |
0% |
100% |
|
413 |
0% |
100% |
|
414 |
0% |
100% |
|
415 |
0% |
100% |
|
416 |
0% |
100% |
|
417 |
0% |
100% |
|
418 |
0% |
100% |
|
419 |
0% |
100% |
|
420 |
0% |
100% |
|
421 |
0% |
100% |
|
422 |
0% |
100% |
|
423 |
0% |
100% |
|
424 |
0% |
100% |
|
425 |
0% |
100% |
|
426 |
0% |
100% |
|
427 |
0% |
100% |
|
428 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
430 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
432 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
433 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
434 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
435 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
436 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
437 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
438 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
439 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
440 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
441 |
2% |
94% |
|
442 |
3% |
93% |
|
443 |
2% |
90% |
|
444 |
3% |
88% |
|
445 |
3% |
85% |
|
446 |
4% |
82% |
|
447 |
4% |
78% |
|
448 |
5% |
74% |
|
449 |
5% |
70% |
|
450 |
5% |
65% |
|
451 |
4% |
60% |
|
452 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
453 |
5% |
50% |
|
454 |
6% |
45% |
|
455 |
4% |
39% |
|
456 |
5% |
36% |
|
457 |
5% |
31% |
|
458 |
4% |
26% |
|
459 |
3% |
22% |
|
460 |
4% |
19% |
|
461 |
3% |
14% |
|
462 |
3% |
12% |
|
463 |
2% |
9% |
|
464 |
2% |
7% |
|
465 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
466 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
467 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
468 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
469 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
470 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
471 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
472 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
473 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
474 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
475 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
476 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
477 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
478 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
479 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
365 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
367 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
368 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
369 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
371 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
372 |
2% |
95% |
|
373 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
374 |
1.5% |
92% |
|
375 |
3% |
91% |
|
376 |
3% |
88% |
|
377 |
3% |
85% |
|
378 |
4% |
82% |
|
379 |
3% |
78% |
|
380 |
4% |
76% |
|
381 |
7% |
71% |
|
382 |
5% |
64% |
|
383 |
4% |
59% |
Median |
384 |
5% |
55% |
|
385 |
5% |
50% |
|
386 |
5% |
45% |
|
387 |
6% |
40% |
|
388 |
4% |
33% |
|
389 |
4% |
29% |
|
390 |
4% |
26% |
|
391 |
4% |
22% |
|
392 |
4% |
19% |
|
393 |
2% |
15% |
|
394 |
2% |
13% |
|
395 |
2% |
11% |
|
396 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
397 |
2% |
8% |
|
398 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
399 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
400 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
401 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
402 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
403 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
404 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
405 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
407 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
409 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
|
418 |
0% |
0% |
|
419 |
0% |
0% |
|
420 |
0% |
0% |
|
421 |
0% |
0% |
|
422 |
0% |
0% |
|
423 |
0% |
0% |
|
424 |
0% |
0% |
|
425 |
0% |
0% |
|
426 |
0% |
0% |
|
427 |
0% |
0% |
|
428 |
0% |
0% |
|
429 |
0% |
0% |
|
430 |
0% |
0% |
|
431 |
0% |
0% |
|
432 |
0% |
0% |
|
433 |
0% |
0% |
|
434 |
0% |
0% |
|
435 |
0% |
0% |
|
436 |
0% |
0% |
|
437 |
0% |
0% |
|
438 |
0% |
0% |
|
439 |
0% |
0% |
|
440 |
0% |
0% |
|
441 |
0% |
0% |
|
442 |
0% |
0% |
|
443 |
0% |
0% |
|
444 |
0% |
0% |
|
445 |
0% |
0% |
|
446 |
0% |
0% |
|
447 |
0% |
0% |
|
448 |
0% |
0% |
|
449 |
0% |
0% |
|
450 |
0% |
0% |
|
451 |
0% |
0% |
|
452 |
0% |
0% |
|
453 |
0% |
0% |
|
454 |
0% |
0% |
|
455 |
0% |
0% |
|
456 |
0% |
0% |
|
457 |
0% |
0% |
|
458 |
0% |
0% |
|
459 |
0% |
0% |
|
460 |
0% |
0% |
|
461 |
0% |
0% |
|
462 |
0% |
0% |
|
463 |
0% |
0% |
|
464 |
0% |
0% |
|
465 |
0% |
0% |
|
466 |
0% |
0% |
|
467 |
0% |
0% |
|
468 |
0% |
0% |
|
469 |
0% |
0% |
|
470 |
0% |
0% |
|
471 |
0% |
0% |
|
472 |
0% |
0% |
|
473 |
0% |
0% |
|
474 |
0% |
0% |
|
475 |
0% |
0% |
|
476 |
0% |
0% |
|
477 |
0% |
0% |
|
478 |
0% |
0% |
|
479 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
300 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
|
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
360 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
365 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
367 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
369 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
370 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
371 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
372 |
2% |
95% |
|
373 |
2% |
93% |
|
374 |
2% |
91% |
|
375 |
2% |
89% |
|
376 |
4% |
87% |
|
377 |
3% |
83% |
|
378 |
3% |
81% |
|
379 |
4% |
77% |
|
380 |
5% |
73% |
|
381 |
4% |
68% |
|
382 |
5% |
64% |
|
383 |
6% |
60% |
Median |
384 |
4% |
54% |
|
385 |
6% |
50% |
|
386 |
6% |
44% |
|
387 |
5% |
38% |
|
388 |
3% |
33% |
|
389 |
5% |
30% |
|
390 |
5% |
25% |
|
391 |
3% |
21% |
|
392 |
2% |
17% |
|
393 |
2% |
15% |
|
394 |
3% |
13% |
|
395 |
2% |
10% |
|
396 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
397 |
2% |
7% |
|
398 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
399 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
400 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
401 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
402 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
404 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
405 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
407 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
408 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
339 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
345 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
348 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
349 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
350 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
351 |
2% |
94% |
|
352 |
2% |
92% |
|
353 |
2% |
89% |
|
354 |
4% |
87% |
|
355 |
3% |
83% |
Majority |
356 |
3% |
80% |
|
357 |
5% |
77% |
|
358 |
4% |
72% |
|
359 |
4% |
68% |
|
360 |
5% |
64% |
|
361 |
4% |
59% |
Median |
362 |
5% |
55% |
|
363 |
5% |
49% |
|
364 |
4% |
45% |
|
365 |
6% |
40% |
|
366 |
4% |
34% |
|
367 |
5% |
30% |
|
368 |
5% |
25% |
|
369 |
3% |
20% |
|
370 |
3% |
18% |
|
371 |
2% |
15% |
|
372 |
2% |
12% |
|
373 |
2% |
10% |
|
374 |
2% |
8% |
|
375 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
376 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
377 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
378 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
379 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
380 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
381 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
382 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
383 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
|
418 |
0% |
0% |
|
419 |
0% |
0% |
|
420 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
313 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
|
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
344 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
345 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
347 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
348 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
349 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
350 |
2% |
94% |
|
351 |
2% |
93% |
|
352 |
2% |
90% |
|
353 |
3% |
88% |
|
354 |
4% |
86% |
|
355 |
3% |
82% |
Majority |
356 |
3% |
79% |
|
357 |
4% |
76% |
|
358 |
6% |
72% |
|
359 |
3% |
66% |
|
360 |
6% |
63% |
|
361 |
4% |
57% |
|
362 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
363 |
4% |
47% |
|
364 |
5% |
42% |
|
365 |
4% |
37% |
|
366 |
5% |
33% |
|
367 |
4% |
29% |
|
368 |
3% |
25% |
|
369 |
4% |
21% |
|
370 |
3% |
17% |
|
371 |
2% |
14% |
|
372 |
3% |
12% |
|
373 |
2% |
9% |
|
374 |
2% |
7% |
|
375 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
376 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
377 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
378 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
379 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
380 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
381 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
382 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
383 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
289 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
322 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
326 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
327 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
328 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
98.5% |
|
331 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
333 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
334 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
335 |
2% |
94% |
|
336 |
2% |
92% |
|
337 |
2% |
90% |
|
338 |
2% |
88% |
|
339 |
3% |
85% |
|
340 |
3% |
82% |
|
341 |
5% |
80% |
|
342 |
5% |
75% |
|
343 |
4% |
70% |
|
344 |
6% |
66% |
|
345 |
4% |
60% |
|
346 |
5% |
55% |
Median |
347 |
5% |
51% |
|
348 |
4% |
45% |
|
349 |
5% |
41% |
|
350 |
4% |
36% |
|
351 |
4% |
32% |
|
352 |
5% |
28% |
|
353 |
3% |
23% |
|
354 |
3% |
20% |
|
355 |
4% |
17% |
Majority |
356 |
2% |
13% |
|
357 |
2% |
11% |
|
358 |
2% |
8% |
|
359 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
360 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
362 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
363 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
364 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
365 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
366 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
371 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
278 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
280 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
281 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
282 |
2% |
95% |
|
283 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
284 |
3% |
92% |
|
285 |
2% |
89% |
|
286 |
4% |
87% |
|
287 |
3% |
84% |
|
288 |
4% |
81% |
|
289 |
6% |
77% |
|
290 |
3% |
71% |
|
291 |
6% |
68% |
|
292 |
5% |
62% |
|
293 |
6% |
57% |
Median |
294 |
2% |
51% |
|
295 |
7% |
48% |
|
296 |
4% |
42% |
|
297 |
6% |
37% |
|
298 |
4% |
32% |
|
299 |
4% |
28% |
|
300 |
4% |
24% |
|
301 |
2% |
20% |
|
302 |
3% |
18% |
|
303 |
2% |
14% |
|
304 |
3% |
12% |
|
305 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
306 |
2% |
8% |
|
307 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
308 |
2% |
5% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
310 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
|
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0% |
|
342 |
0% |
0% |
|
343 |
0% |
0% |
|
344 |
0% |
0% |
|
345 |
0% |
0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0% |
|
347 |
0% |
0% |
|
348 |
0% |
0% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
353 |
0% |
0% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
356 |
0% |
0% |
|
357 |
0% |
0% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
359 |
0% |
0% |
|
360 |
0% |
0% |
|
361 |
0% |
0% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
363 |
0% |
0% |
|
364 |
0% |
0% |
|
365 |
0% |
0% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
367 |
0% |
0% |
|
368 |
0% |
0% |
|
369 |
0% |
0% |
|
370 |
0% |
0% |
|
371 |
0% |
0% |
|
372 |
0% |
0% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
374 |
0% |
0% |
|
375 |
0% |
0% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
377 |
0% |
0% |
|
378 |
0% |
0% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
277 |
0.6% |
98.6% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
279 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
280 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
281 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
282 |
2% |
94% |
|
283 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
284 |
3% |
91% |
|
285 |
2% |
88% |
|
286 |
3% |
86% |
|
287 |
5% |
83% |
|
288 |
3% |
78% |
|
289 |
5% |
75% |
|
290 |
4% |
71% |
|
291 |
5% |
66% |
|
292 |
5% |
61% |
|
293 |
4% |
56% |
Median |
294 |
6% |
52% |
|
295 |
5% |
45% |
|
296 |
5% |
41% |
|
297 |
4% |
36% |
|
298 |
4% |
32% |
|
299 |
4% |
27% |
|
300 |
4% |
23% |
|
301 |
4% |
20% |
|
302 |
2% |
16% |
|
303 |
3% |
13% |
|
304 |
2% |
11% |
|
305 |
2% |
9% |
|
306 |
2% |
7% |
|
307 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
308 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
309 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
255 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
256 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
257 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
259 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
260 |
2% |
94% |
|
261 |
2% |
93% |
|
262 |
2% |
91% |
|
263 |
2% |
89% |
|
264 |
3% |
87% |
|
265 |
4% |
84% |
|
266 |
4% |
80% |
|
267 |
5% |
76% |
|
268 |
4% |
72% |
|
269 |
6% |
67% |
|
270 |
5% |
61% |
|
271 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
272 |
7% |
50% |
|
273 |
4% |
44% |
|
274 |
4% |
40% |
|
275 |
4% |
36% |
|
276 |
4% |
32% |
|
277 |
4% |
28% |
|
278 |
4% |
24% |
|
279 |
4% |
19% |
|
280 |
3% |
16% |
|
281 |
2% |
13% |
|
282 |
2% |
10% |
|
283 |
2% |
8% |
|
284 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
285 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
286 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
290 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
|
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
252 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
254 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
255 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
256 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
257 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
258 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
259 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
260 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
261 |
2% |
94% |
|
262 |
3% |
92% |
|
263 |
3% |
89% |
|
264 |
4% |
87% |
|
265 |
3% |
83% |
|
266 |
3% |
79% |
|
267 |
5% |
76% |
|
268 |
4% |
71% |
|
269 |
7% |
67% |
|
270 |
6% |
60% |
|
271 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
272 |
5% |
49% |
|
273 |
4% |
44% |
|
274 |
5% |
40% |
|
275 |
5% |
35% |
|
276 |
6% |
31% |
|
277 |
3% |
24% |
|
278 |
4% |
21% |
|
279 |
3% |
18% |
|
280 |
2% |
15% |
|
281 |
3% |
13% |
|
282 |
2% |
10% |
|
283 |
2% |
8% |
|
284 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
285 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
286 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
288 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
291 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
181 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
182 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
185 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
186 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
187 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
188 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
189 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
190 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
191 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
192 |
2% |
95% |
|
193 |
2% |
94% |
|
194 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
195 |
3% |
91% |
|
196 |
5% |
88% |
|
197 |
4% |
83% |
|
198 |
4% |
79% |
|
199 |
3% |
75% |
|
200 |
7% |
72% |
|
201 |
7% |
64% |
|
202 |
5% |
57% |
Median |
203 |
4% |
52% |
|
204 |
3% |
49% |
|
205 |
9% |
46% |
|
206 |
5% |
37% |
|
207 |
4% |
32% |
|
208 |
3% |
28% |
|
209 |
3% |
25% |
|
210 |
5% |
22% |
|
211 |
5% |
17% |
|
212 |
2% |
12% |
|
213 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
214 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
215 |
3% |
8% |
|
216 |
2% |
5% |
|
217 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
218 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
219 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
220 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
221 |
0.5% |
1.0% |
|
222 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
227 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
228 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
144 |
0% |
100% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
150 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
151 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
152 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
153 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
154 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
155 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
156 |
2% |
95% |
|
157 |
3% |
93% |
|
158 |
2% |
90% |
|
159 |
4% |
87% |
|
160 |
5% |
83% |
|
161 |
7% |
79% |
|
162 |
5% |
72% |
|
163 |
5% |
67% |
|
164 |
5% |
62% |
|
165 |
7% |
57% |
Median |
166 |
7% |
50% |
|
167 |
5% |
43% |
|
168 |
5% |
39% |
|
169 |
5% |
34% |
|
170 |
5% |
29% |
|
171 |
3% |
24% |
|
172 |
3% |
21% |
|
173 |
3% |
18% |
|
174 |
4% |
15% |
|
175 |
3% |
11% |
|
176 |
2% |
8% |
|
177 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
178 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
180 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
181 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
182 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
183 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
185 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
186 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
187 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
188 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
189 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
|
201 |
0% |
0% |
|
202 |
0% |
0% |
|
203 |
0% |
0% |
|
204 |
0% |
0% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 April–3 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2075
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%