Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 7–10 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.5% 22.3–24.7% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.2–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 176 167–185 165–187 163–190 158–194
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 146 138–154 136–157 134–159 130–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 101–124 98–128
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 83–97 82–99 80–101 77–105
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–96
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 49–64 48–65 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 35–56

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.3% 99.3%  
161 0.5% 98.9%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 1.1% 98%  
164 1.2% 97%  
165 2% 96%  
166 2% 94%  
167 3% 92%  
168 3% 89%  
169 4% 86%  
170 4% 82%  
171 4% 77%  
172 5% 73%  
173 4% 68%  
174 7% 64%  
175 4% 58%  
176 6% 53% Median
177 6% 48%  
178 6% 42%  
179 5% 36%  
180 5% 32%  
181 4% 27%  
182 4% 22%  
183 4% 18%  
184 3% 14%  
185 2% 11%  
186 2% 9%  
187 1.3% 6%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.7% 3%  
190 0.7% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.5%  
193 0.3% 1.1%  
194 0.3% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.4% 99.3%  
132 0.4% 98.9%  
133 0.7% 98.5%  
134 1.0% 98%  
135 1.5% 97%  
136 2% 95%  
137 2% 94%  
138 3% 91%  
139 3% 88%  
140 4% 85%  
141 4% 81%  
142 5% 77%  
143 6% 72%  
144 6% 66%  
145 6% 60%  
146 7% 54% Median
147 5% 47%  
148 6% 42%  
149 5% 36%  
150 6% 32%  
151 5% 26%  
152 5% 21%  
153 3% 16%  
154 3% 13%  
155 2% 10%  
156 2% 8%  
157 2% 6%  
158 1.0% 4%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.8% 2%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.3% 1.1%  
163 0.2% 0.8%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.9% 99.0%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 3% 94%  
105 2% 91%  
106 5% 88%  
107 4% 84%  
108 6% 79%  
109 5% 73%  
110 6% 68%  
111 7% 62%  
112 6% 54% Median
113 6% 49%  
114 6% 43%  
115 8% 37%  
116 4% 29%  
117 5% 24%  
118 3% 19%  
119 4% 16%  
120 3% 12%  
121 3% 9%  
122 1.3% 6%  
123 1.2% 5%  
124 1.3% 4%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.6% 2%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 0.4% 99.3%  
79 0.9% 98.8%  
80 1.2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 3% 93%  
84 4% 90%  
85 5% 86%  
86 6% 81%  
87 6% 75%  
88 7% 69%  
89 7% 63%  
90 9% 56% Median
91 7% 47%  
92 6% 40%  
93 7% 34%  
94 5% 27%  
95 5% 22%  
96 5% 17%  
97 3% 12%  
98 3% 9%  
99 2% 7%  
100 1.5% 5%  
101 1.1% 3%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.5% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.3%  
72 1.0% 98.7%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 3% 91%  
77 4% 88%  
78 6% 84%  
79 6% 78%  
80 7% 72%  
81 8% 66%  
82 8% 57% Median
83 8% 49%  
84 6% 41%  
85 7% 35%  
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 23%  
88 4% 18%  
89 4% 13%  
90 3% 10%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.9% 99.2%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 4% 95%  
51 4% 91%  
52 6% 87%  
53 7% 81%  
54 8% 74%  
55 8% 65%  
56 8% 57% Median
57 10% 49%  
58 8% 39%  
59 7% 31%  
60 7% 24%  
61 5% 17%  
62 4% 12%  
63 2% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.5%  
37 0.9% 98.9%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 96%  
40 5% 93%  
41 6% 88%  
42 9% 82%  
43 9% 73%  
44 9% 64%  
45 10% 55% Median
46 11% 45% Last Result
47 9% 34%  
48 6% 26%  
49 7% 20%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 9%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 470–489 467–492 465–494 460–499
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 458 100% 448–468 445–470 442–473 438–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 394 100% 384–404 381–407 378–410 373–415
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 379 99.9% 368–389 365–392 363–394 358–400
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 367 94% 357–378 354–381 352–383 347–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 364 88% 354–375 351–377 349–380 343–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 345 12% 334–355 332–358 329–360 324–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 304 0% 294–314 290–317 288–319 283–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 288 0% 278–298 276–301 274–304 268–309
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 282 0% 272–292 269–295 266–297 261–302
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 274 0% 264–284 261–287 259–289 254–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 203 0% 193–212 190–215 189–217 184–222
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 158–180 156–183 151–187

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.2% 99.6%  
461 0.1% 99.5%  
462 0.5% 99.3%  
463 0.6% 98.8%  
464 0.7% 98%  
465 0.6% 98%  
466 0.7% 97% Last Result
467 1.2% 96%  
468 2% 95%  
469 2% 93%  
470 2% 91%  
471 3% 89%  
472 3% 86%  
473 5% 83%  
474 4% 78%  
475 3% 74%  
476 4% 71%  
477 5% 67%  
478 5% 62%  
479 5% 57% Median
480 6% 52%  
481 3% 45%  
482 5% 42%  
483 5% 37%  
484 6% 31%  
485 3% 26%  
486 3% 23%  
487 4% 20%  
488 3% 16%  
489 3% 13%  
490 2% 10%  
491 2% 7%  
492 1.0% 6%  
493 1.4% 5%  
494 1.1% 4%  
495 0.8% 2%  
496 0.4% 2%  
497 0.3% 1.3%  
498 0.4% 1.0%  
499 0.2% 0.6%  
500 0.2% 0.4%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0.1% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.9%  
435 0.1% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.8%  
437 0.1% 99.7%  
438 0.2% 99.5%  
439 0.4% 99.3%  
440 0.4% 98.9%  
441 0.5% 98.5%  
442 0.7% 98%  
443 0.9% 97%  
444 1.2% 97%  
445 1.1% 95%  
446 1.4% 94%  
447 2% 93%  
448 2% 91%  
449 3% 89%  
450 3% 85%  
451 4% 82%  
452 3% 78%  
453 4% 75%  
454 6% 71%  
455 4% 65%  
456 6% 61%  
457 5% 55% Median
458 5% 51%  
459 6% 46%  
460 5% 40%  
461 5% 36%  
462 4% 31%  
463 4% 27%  
464 5% 23%  
465 2% 18%  
466 3% 16%  
467 2% 12%  
468 2% 10%  
469 2% 8%  
470 0.9% 6%  
471 1.4% 5%  
472 1.0% 4%  
473 0.8% 3%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.3%  
476 0.4% 1.0%  
477 0.2% 0.7%  
478 0.2% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.2% 99.3%  
376 0.4% 99.0%  
377 0.5% 98.6%  
378 0.6% 98%  
379 0.9% 97%  
380 1.3% 96%  
381 2% 95%  
382 1.2% 93%  
383 2% 92%  
384 2% 90%  
385 3% 88%  
386 3% 86%  
387 3% 83%  
388 5% 80%  
389 4% 75%  
390 5% 71%  
391 4% 67%  
392 5% 62%  
393 4% 57% Median
394 4% 53%  
395 5% 49%  
396 6% 44%  
397 5% 38%  
398 4% 33%  
399 5% 29%  
400 4% 24%  
401 3% 20%  
402 3% 17%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 12%  
405 2% 10%  
406 2% 8%  
407 2% 6%  
408 1.2% 4%  
409 0.8% 3%  
410 0.8% 3%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.4% 1.4%  
413 0.3% 1.1%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.2% 0.5%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.3% 99.2%  
361 0.4% 98.8%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 0.9% 97%  
365 2% 96%  
366 1.2% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 2% 91%  
369 2% 89%  
370 4% 87%  
371 4% 84%  
372 3% 80%  
373 5% 77%  
374 3% 72%  
375 4% 68%  
376 4% 65%  
377 5% 61%  
378 4% 56% Median
379 4% 51%  
380 4% 47%  
381 6% 44%  
382 4% 37%  
383 4% 33%  
384 7% 29%  
385 2% 23%  
386 4% 21%  
387 2% 16%  
388 3% 14%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 2% 7%  
392 0.9% 5%  
393 1.0% 4%  
394 0.7% 3%  
395 0.6% 2%  
396 0.6% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.3%  
398 0.3% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.6%  
400 0.2% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.2% 99.5%  
348 0.2% 99.3%  
349 0.4% 99.1%  
350 0.5% 98.7%  
351 0.6% 98%  
352 0.9% 98%  
353 1.1% 97%  
354 1.3% 96%  
355 1.4% 94% Majority
356 2% 93%  
357 2% 91%  
358 2% 89%  
359 2% 86%  
360 4% 84%  
361 4% 80%  
362 3% 76%  
363 4% 73%  
364 5% 69%  
365 4% 64%  
366 5% 59%  
367 4% 54% Median
368 5% 50%  
369 4% 44%  
370 5% 40%  
371 5% 35%  
372 4% 30%  
373 4% 26%  
374 4% 22%  
375 2% 18%  
376 3% 16%  
377 2% 13%  
378 2% 10%  
379 2% 8%  
380 1.1% 7%  
381 1.4% 5%  
382 0.8% 4%  
383 0.9% 3%  
384 0.8% 2%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.2% 0.9%  
388 0.2% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.2% 99.5%  
345 0.3% 99.3%  
346 0.4% 99.0%  
347 0.5% 98.6%  
348 0.5% 98%  
349 0.8% 98%  
350 1.5% 97%  
351 1.2% 95%  
352 1.4% 94%  
353 2% 93%  
354 2% 91%  
355 3% 88% Majority
356 2% 86%  
357 5% 83%  
358 4% 79%  
359 3% 75%  
360 4% 72%  
361 5% 68%  
362 5% 63%  
363 5% 58% Median
364 4% 53%  
365 4% 48%  
366 5% 44%  
367 4% 39%  
368 5% 35%  
369 4% 29%  
370 4% 26%  
371 4% 22%  
372 3% 18%  
373 3% 15%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 2% 8%  
377 2% 6%  
378 1.2% 5%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 0.8% 3%  
381 0.7% 2%  
382 0.4% 1.5%  
383 0.3% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.4%  
326 0.3% 99.2%  
327 0.4% 98.9%  
328 0.7% 98.5%  
329 0.8% 98%  
330 0.7% 97%  
331 1.2% 96%  
332 2% 95%  
333 2% 94%  
334 2% 92%  
335 2% 90%  
336 3% 88%  
337 3% 85%  
338 4% 82%  
339 4% 78%  
340 4% 74%  
341 5% 71%  
342 4% 65%  
343 5% 61%  
344 4% 56% Median
345 4% 52%  
346 5% 47%  
347 5% 42%  
348 5% 37%  
349 4% 32%  
350 3% 28%  
351 4% 25%  
352 5% 21%  
353 2% 17%  
354 3% 14%  
355 2% 12% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 1.4% 7%  
358 1.2% 6%  
359 1.5% 5%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.4%  
364 0.3% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.2% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.4% 99.2%  
286 0.3% 98.8%  
287 0.6% 98.5%  
288 0.8% 98%  
289 0.9% 97%  
290 2% 96%  
291 1.1% 95%  
292 2% 94%  
293 2% 92%  
294 3% 90%  
295 3% 87%  
296 2% 84%  
297 4% 82%  
298 4% 78%  
299 5% 74%  
300 5% 70%  
301 3% 65%  
302 4% 61%  
303 7% 57% Median
304 4% 50%  
305 5% 46%  
306 3% 41%  
307 5% 37%  
308 4% 32%  
309 6% 28%  
310 3% 23%  
311 3% 20%  
312 4% 17%  
313 2% 13%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 2% 7%  
317 2% 6%  
318 1.0% 4%  
319 0.8% 3%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.3% 1.3%  
323 0.3% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.2% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0.2% 99.3%  
270 0.4% 99.1%  
271 0.4% 98.7%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.8% 97%  
276 1.3% 96%  
277 3% 95%  
278 3% 92%  
279 3% 89%  
280 5% 86%  
281 4% 81%  
282 3% 77%  
283 3% 75%  
284 4% 71%  
285 3% 68%  
286 4% 65%  
287 6% 61%  
288 7% 56% Median
289 4% 49%  
290 4% 46%  
291 7% 42%  
292 3% 34%  
293 4% 32%  
294 5% 27%  
295 3% 23%  
296 3% 20%  
297 4% 16%  
298 4% 13%  
299 1.5% 8%  
300 1.3% 7%  
301 1.5% 6%  
302 0.4% 4%  
303 0.4% 4%  
304 0.9% 3%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.3% 0.9%  
309 0.2% 0.6%  
310 0.2% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.5%  
263 0.3% 99.3%  
264 0.5% 99.0%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.9% 98%  
267 0.6% 97%  
268 2% 97%  
269 1.2% 95%  
270 1.2% 94%  
271 2% 93%  
272 2% 90%  
273 3% 88%  
274 2% 85%  
275 5% 82%  
276 3% 77%  
277 4% 74%  
278 5% 70%  
279 5% 65%  
280 6% 61%  
281 5% 55% Median
282 5% 50%  
283 6% 45%  
284 4% 40%  
285 5% 36%  
286 4% 31%  
287 5% 27%  
288 4% 22%  
289 2% 18%  
290 4% 16%  
291 2% 13%  
292 2% 11%  
293 2% 8%  
294 2% 7%  
295 1.1% 5%  
296 1.0% 4%  
297 0.6% 3%  
298 0.9% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 1.2%  
301 0.2% 0.8%  
302 0.2% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.3% 99.4%  
256 0.3% 99.1%  
257 0.5% 98.8%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 1.0% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 1.2% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 2% 93%  
264 3% 91%  
265 2% 88%  
266 5% 86%  
267 3% 81%  
268 3% 78%  
269 3% 75%  
270 5% 72%  
271 6% 67%  
272 4% 61%  
273 5% 57% Median
274 5% 52%  
275 6% 46%  
276 3% 40%  
277 4% 38%  
278 5% 33%  
279 5% 29%  
280 3% 24%  
281 3% 20%  
282 4% 17%  
283 2% 13%  
284 2% 12%  
285 2% 10%  
286 2% 8%  
287 2% 6%  
288 0.9% 4%  
289 1.0% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.3%  
293 0.3% 1.0%  
294 0.2% 0.7%  
295 0.2% 0.5%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.2% 99.7%  
185 0.3% 99.4%  
186 0.3% 99.1%  
187 0.8% 98.9%  
188 0.5% 98%  
189 0.7% 98%  
190 2% 97%  
191 1.3% 95%  
192 1.3% 93%  
193 3% 92%  
194 2% 89%  
195 4% 87%  
196 3% 83%  
197 4% 80%  
198 5% 76%  
199 4% 71%  
200 6% 67%  
201 5% 61%  
202 4% 55% Median
203 6% 52%  
204 7% 46%  
205 4% 39%  
206 6% 35%  
207 4% 29%  
208 5% 25%  
209 4% 21%  
210 2% 17%  
211 4% 15%  
212 2% 11%  
213 1.0% 9%  
214 3% 8%  
215 1.3% 5%  
216 0.7% 4%  
217 1.2% 3%  
218 0.6% 2%  
219 0.4% 1.4%  
220 0.2% 1.1%  
221 0.3% 0.8%  
222 0.2% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.3%  
224 0.1% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.3% 99.2%  
154 0.7% 98.9%  
155 0.7% 98%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 1.3% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 2% 91%  
161 4% 89%  
162 4% 85%  
163 4% 81%  
164 5% 78%  
165 5% 73%  
166 5% 68%  
167 6% 63%  
168 6% 57% Median
169 6% 51%  
170 6% 46%  
171 5% 39%  
172 5% 35%  
173 5% 30%  
174 5% 25%  
175 3% 20%  
176 3% 17%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.1% 6%  
181 1.3% 5%  
182 0.9% 3%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.3%  
186 0.2% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations