Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 14–17 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.6% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.5% 19.4–21.7% 19.1–22.0% 18.8–22.3% 18.3–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.3–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 172 163–181 161–184 159–186 155–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 154 145–162 143–165 141–167 137–171
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–136
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 94 87–101 85–103 83–105 80–109
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 48 44–54 42–56 41–57 39–60
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 33–42 32–44 31–45 29–48

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.5%  
156 0.4% 99.3%  
157 0.6% 98.9%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 0.9% 98%  
160 1.1% 97%  
161 2% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 87%  
166 4% 84%  
167 4% 80%  
168 5% 75%  
169 5% 71%  
170 6% 66%  
171 6% 60%  
172 6% 54% Median
173 7% 48%  
174 5% 41%  
175 6% 36%  
176 5% 31%  
177 4% 26%  
178 4% 21%  
179 3% 17%  
180 3% 14%  
181 2% 11%  
182 2% 9%  
183 2% 7%  
184 1.2% 5%  
185 1.0% 4%  
186 0.8% 3%  
187 0.6% 2%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.1%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.7%  
137 0.2% 99.6%  
138 0.4% 99.4%  
139 0.4% 99.0%  
140 0.7% 98.6%  
141 0.9% 98%  
142 1.0% 97%  
143 2% 96%  
144 2% 94%  
145 3% 92%  
146 3% 90%  
147 4% 87%  
148 5% 83%  
149 4% 78%  
150 6% 74%  
151 5% 68%  
152 8% 64%  
153 5% 56%  
154 6% 51% Median
155 6% 45%  
156 5% 39%  
157 6% 34%  
158 4% 27%  
159 5% 24%  
160 4% 19%  
161 3% 15%  
162 3% 12%  
163 2% 9%  
164 2% 7%  
165 1.1% 5%  
166 1.2% 4%  
167 0.9% 3%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.4%  
170 0.3% 1.0%  
171 0.3% 0.7%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0.1% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.5% 98.9%  
108 1.0% 98%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 3% 93%  
113 4% 89%  
114 4% 86%  
115 5% 81%  
116 5% 76%  
117 7% 72%  
118 6% 65%  
119 6% 59%  
120 7% 53% Median
121 7% 46%  
122 6% 40%  
123 5% 34%  
124 5% 28%  
125 5% 23%  
126 4% 18%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 2% 9%  
130 2% 7%  
131 1.2% 5%  
132 1.0% 3%  
133 1.0% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.4%  
135 0.3% 1.0%  
136 0.2% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.4%  
82 0.7% 99.0%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 1.4% 97%  
85 2% 96%  
86 3% 94%  
87 3% 91%  
88 4% 88%  
89 5% 84%  
90 5% 78%  
91 7% 74%  
92 7% 67%  
93 6% 59%  
94 9% 53% Median
95 6% 44%  
96 6% 38%  
97 7% 32%  
98 6% 25%  
99 5% 19%  
100 3% 14%  
101 3% 11%  
102 2% 8%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.5% 4%  
105 0.8% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.2%  
108 0.3% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.7% 98.7%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 5% 90%  
78 5% 84%  
79 7% 80%  
80 7% 73%  
81 6% 66%  
82 8% 60%  
83 7% 52% Median
84 7% 44%  
85 8% 37%  
86 6% 29%  
87 5% 23%  
88 5% 18%  
89 3% 13%  
90 2% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 0.9% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.2% 0.8%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 1.0% 99.1%  
41 1.5% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 4% 91%  
45 6% 86%  
46 8% 80%  
47 11% 72%  
48 11% 61% Median
49 8% 50%  
50 10% 42%  
51 7% 32%  
52 6% 25%  
53 6% 19%  
54 4% 12%  
55 4% 9%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.2% 3%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 1.0% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 6% 93%  
34 7% 87%  
35 8% 80%  
36 9% 72%  
37 12% 63%  
38 11% 51% Median
39 10% 40%  
40 9% 31%  
41 7% 21%  
42 5% 14%  
43 4% 9%  
44 2% 6%  
45 1.3% 3%  
46 0.8% 2% Last Result
47 0.5% 1.1%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 483 100% 474–493 472–496 468–499 464–503
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 457 100% 448–467 445–470 442–473 437–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 405 100% 395–416 392–418 389–421 384–426
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 386 100% 376–396 373–399 370–402 365–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 368 95% 358–378 355–381 352–384 347–389
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 364 88% 354–374 351–377 348–380 343–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 341 5% 331–351 328–354 325–357 320–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 311 0% 301–322 299–325 296–327 291–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 292 0% 282–302 279–305 277–308 272–313
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 285 0% 275–295 272–298 270–301 265–306
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 274 0% 264–284 261–287 259–290 254–295
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 214 0% 204–224 202–226 200–228 195–234
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 157–180 156–183 151–186

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
459 0% 100%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.9%  
462 0.1% 99.8%  
463 0.1% 99.8%  
464 0.3% 99.7%  
465 0.3% 99.4%  
466 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
467 0.8% 98.5%  
468 0.6% 98%  
469 0.6% 97%  
470 0.4% 96%  
471 0.9% 96%  
472 1.4% 95%  
473 3% 94%  
474 3% 91%  
475 2% 89%  
476 2% 87%  
477 2% 85%  
478 3% 83%  
479 4% 80%  
480 7% 76%  
481 8% 68%  
482 6% 60%  
483 5% 54%  
484 4% 49% Median
485 4% 46%  
486 6% 41%  
487 7% 36%  
488 6% 28%  
489 5% 23%  
490 4% 18%  
491 2% 14%  
492 2% 12%  
493 2% 11%  
494 2% 9%  
495 2% 7%  
496 1.4% 5%  
497 0.8% 4%  
498 0.5% 3%  
499 0.4% 3%  
500 0.4% 2%  
501 0.6% 2%  
502 0.4% 1.1%  
503 0.3% 0.8%  
504 0.1% 0.5%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0% 0.3%  
507 0% 0.2%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0% 0.2%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0.1%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.9%  
435 0.1% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.8%  
437 0.2% 99.6%  
438 0.2% 99.5%  
439 0.3% 99.3%  
440 0.4% 99.0%  
441 0.6% 98.6%  
442 0.8% 98%  
443 0.7% 97%  
444 1.2% 97%  
445 2% 95%  
446 2% 94%  
447 2% 92%  
448 2% 90%  
449 4% 88%  
450 3% 84%  
451 3% 82%  
452 5% 79%  
453 4% 74%  
454 4% 70%  
455 6% 66%  
456 4% 60%  
457 6% 56%  
458 5% 50% Median
459 5% 44%  
460 5% 39%  
461 5% 34%  
462 4% 29%  
463 4% 25%  
464 4% 21%  
465 3% 17%  
466 3% 14%  
467 2% 11%  
468 1.3% 9%  
469 2% 8%  
470 2% 6%  
471 1.1% 4%  
472 0.7% 3%  
473 0.6% 3%  
474 0.6% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.4%  
476 0.3% 1.0%  
477 0.2% 0.7%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.2% 99.7%  
385 0.2% 99.5%  
386 0.2% 99.3%  
387 0.2% 99.0%  
388 0.6% 98.8%  
389 1.0% 98%  
390 0.7% 97%  
391 0.8% 97%  
392 1.1% 96%  
393 1.3% 95%  
394 2% 93%  
395 2% 91%  
396 2% 89%  
397 3% 88%  
398 4% 84%  
399 4% 81%  
400 5% 77%  
401 5% 72%  
402 4% 66%  
403 4% 63%  
404 4% 58%  
405 6% 55%  
406 5% 48% Median
407 5% 43%  
408 4% 39%  
409 5% 35%  
410 4% 30%  
411 3% 25%  
412 4% 22%  
413 3% 19%  
414 3% 15%  
415 2% 13%  
416 2% 11%  
417 1.4% 8%  
418 2% 7%  
419 0.9% 5%  
420 0.8% 4%  
421 0.8% 3%  
422 0.5% 2%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.3% 1.2%  
425 0.2% 0.8%  
426 0.2% 0.7%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.2% 99.4%  
367 0.3% 99.3%  
368 0.4% 99.0%  
369 0.6% 98.6%  
370 0.5% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 1.1% 97%  
373 1.4% 96%  
374 2% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 3% 86%  
379 3% 83%  
380 5% 80%  
381 3% 75%  
382 5% 72%  
383 6% 67%  
384 3% 62%  
385 5% 58%  
386 7% 53% Median
387 3% 47%  
388 6% 44%  
389 5% 38%  
390 3% 32%  
391 4% 29%  
392 4% 25%  
393 3% 21%  
394 4% 18%  
395 2% 14%  
396 3% 12%  
397 2% 10%  
398 2% 8%  
399 1.3% 6%  
400 1.1% 5%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 0.8% 3%  
403 0.7% 2%  
404 0.3% 2%  
405 0.3% 1.3%  
406 0.3% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0.2% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0.1% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0.2% 99.5%  
349 0.5% 99.3%  
350 0.3% 98.8%  
351 0.5% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 1.2% 97%  
354 0.8% 96%  
355 1.4% 95% Majority
356 1.1% 94%  
357 2% 93%  
358 2% 91%  
359 3% 88%  
360 2% 85%  
361 4% 83%  
362 4% 80%  
363 5% 75%  
364 3% 70%  
365 6% 68%  
366 5% 62%  
367 5% 57%  
368 4% 52%  
369 6% 48% Median
370 5% 42%  
371 5% 38%  
372 4% 33%  
373 4% 29%  
374 4% 25%  
375 3% 21%  
376 3% 18%  
377 2% 15%  
378 3% 13%  
379 2% 10%  
380 1.4% 7%  
381 1.3% 6%  
382 1.2% 5%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.7% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.4% 1.2%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0.1% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.2% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.3%  
345 0.4% 99.1%  
346 0.5% 98.8%  
347 0.5% 98%  
348 0.6% 98%  
349 1.0% 97%  
350 1.1% 96%  
351 1.4% 95%  
352 2% 94%  
353 2% 92%  
354 3% 90%  
355 2% 88% Majority
356 4% 85%  
357 3% 81%  
358 4% 78%  
359 4% 74%  
360 5% 70%  
361 7% 65%  
362 3% 58%  
363 5% 56%  
364 6% 50% Median
365 5% 44%  
366 5% 39%  
367 4% 34%  
368 4% 30%  
369 4% 26%  
370 4% 23%  
371 3% 19%  
372 3% 16%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 11%  
375 1.2% 8%  
376 2% 7%  
377 1.1% 6%  
378 0.9% 4%  
379 0.7% 4%  
380 0.9% 3%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.4%  
383 0.4% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.4% 99.2%  
323 0.4% 98.8%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.7% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 1.2% 97%  
328 1.3% 95%  
329 1.4% 94%  
330 2% 93%  
331 3% 90%  
332 2% 87%  
333 3% 85%  
334 3% 82%  
335 4% 79%  
336 4% 75%  
337 4% 71%  
338 5% 67%  
339 5% 62%  
340 6% 58% Median
341 4% 52%  
342 5% 48%  
343 5% 43%  
344 6% 38%  
345 3% 32%  
346 5% 30%  
347 4% 25%  
348 4% 20%  
349 2% 17%  
350 3% 15%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 9%  
353 1.1% 7%  
354 1.4% 6%  
355 0.8% 5% Majority
356 1.2% 4%  
357 0.5% 3%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.5% 1.2%  
361 0.2% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.3% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.1%  
294 0.3% 98.8%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 0.9% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 2% 94%  
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 90%  
303 3% 87%  
304 3% 85%  
305 4% 82%  
306 5% 78%  
307 5% 73%  
308 5% 68%  
309 5% 63%  
310 5% 58%  
311 5% 54%  
312 5% 48% Median
313 4% 43%  
314 5% 39%  
315 4% 35%  
316 4% 30%  
317 4% 26%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 19%  
320 3% 16%  
321 2% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 2% 9%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 2% 5%  
326 0.9% 4%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.3%  
331 0.4% 1.0%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.2% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.5%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0.4% 99.2%  
275 0.4% 98.8%  
276 0.7% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 1.0% 97%  
279 2% 96%  
280 1.4% 95%  
281 2% 93%  
282 2% 91%  
283 2% 89%  
284 3% 87%  
285 3% 84%  
286 4% 81%  
287 5% 77%  
288 3% 71%  
289 4% 68%  
290 5% 64%  
291 4% 60%  
292 7% 55% Median
293 4% 48%  
294 7% 44%  
295 4% 37%  
296 3% 33%  
297 4% 30%  
298 5% 25%  
299 3% 21%  
300 4% 18%  
301 2% 14%  
302 2% 12%  
303 2% 9%  
304 1.5% 8%  
305 2% 6%  
306 0.8% 4%  
307 0.9% 4%  
308 0.6% 3%  
309 0.6% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.2%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.4% 99.2%  
268 0.5% 98.8%  
269 0.5% 98%  
270 1.1% 98%  
271 0.8% 97%  
272 1.3% 96%  
273 1.3% 95%  
274 1.5% 93%  
275 2% 92%  
276 3% 90%  
277 3% 87%  
278 4% 84%  
279 4% 80%  
280 4% 77%  
281 5% 73%  
282 3% 67%  
283 6% 64%  
284 5% 58%  
285 4% 53%  
286 7% 49% Median
287 3% 42%  
288 5% 39%  
289 5% 34%  
290 4% 29%  
291 4% 26%  
292 5% 22%  
293 3% 17%  
294 3% 14%  
295 2% 12%  
296 2% 10%  
297 2% 8%  
298 1.3% 6%  
299 1.5% 5%  
300 0.7% 3%  
301 0.6% 3%  
302 0.7% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.5%  
304 0.3% 1.2%  
305 0.3% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.6%  
307 0.2% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.4%  
256 0.4% 99.2%  
257 0.4% 98.8%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.9% 98%  
260 1.0% 97%  
261 1.2% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 2% 93%  
264 2% 91%  
265 3% 89%  
266 3% 86%  
267 4% 83%  
268 4% 79%  
269 3% 75%  
270 4% 72%  
271 4% 68%  
272 4% 64%  
273 7% 60%  
274 4% 53%  
275 6% 48% Median
276 4% 42%  
277 5% 39%  
278 4% 33%  
279 5% 29%  
280 4% 24%  
281 3% 20%  
282 3% 17%  
283 2% 14%  
284 2% 12%  
285 3% 10%  
286 2% 7%  
287 1.4% 6%  
288 1.0% 5%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.8% 3%  
291 0.6% 2%  
292 0.4% 1.4%  
293 0.2% 1.0%  
294 0.2% 0.7%  
295 0.2% 0.6%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.4%  
197 0.4% 99.1%  
198 0.5% 98.7%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 0.9% 98%  
201 1.3% 97%  
202 2% 95%  
203 2% 93%  
204 3% 91%  
205 3% 89%  
206 3% 86%  
207 3% 84%  
208 3% 81%  
209 3% 77%  
210 6% 74%  
211 5% 68%  
212 5% 63%  
213 7% 58%  
214 5% 51% Median
215 5% 46%  
216 4% 41%  
217 5% 37%  
218 4% 32%  
219 5% 28%  
220 4% 23%  
221 3% 19%  
222 3% 16%  
223 3% 13%  
224 2% 10%  
225 2% 8%  
226 1.4% 6%  
227 1.2% 4%  
228 0.9% 3%  
229 0.6% 2%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.3% 1.3%  
232 0.3% 1.1%  
233 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
234 0.2% 0.5%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.1% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.3% 99.4%  
153 0.3% 99.0%  
154 0.3% 98.8%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.0% 98%  
157 2% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 1.3% 93%  
160 3% 92%  
161 4% 89%  
162 4% 85%  
163 5% 82%  
164 4% 76%  
165 2% 72%  
166 5% 70%  
167 8% 65%  
168 7% 57% Median
169 7% 50%  
170 4% 44%  
171 3% 39%  
172 5% 36%  
173 6% 31%  
174 6% 25%  
175 4% 19%  
176 2% 16%  
177 3% 14%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 0.5% 3%  
183 0.9% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations