Opinion Poll by Kantar, 11–18 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 24.0% 22.6–25.5% 22.2–25.9% 21.9–26.3% 21.2–27.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 21.2% 19.8–22.6% 19.5–23.0% 19.1–23.4% 18.5–24.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.5–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.5% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.8% 4.2–5.7% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 181 170–191 167–194 164–197 160–202
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 159 149–170 146–173 144–175 139–180
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 105 97–114 94–117 92–119 88–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 75–91 73–93 71–95 68–100
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 82 76–92 73–94 71–95 67–99
Die Linke 69 61 54–68 52–70 51–72 48–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 37 31–42 30–44 29–46 27–49

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 100%  
143 0% 100%  
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.4% 99.3%  
162 0.3% 99.0%  
163 0.4% 98.7%  
164 0.8% 98%  
165 1.0% 97%  
166 0.8% 97%  
167 1.0% 96%  
168 2% 95%  
169 2% 93%  
170 2% 91%  
171 2% 89%  
172 3% 87%  
173 4% 84%  
174 3% 79%  
175 3% 76%  
176 3% 74%  
177 8% 70%  
178 3% 63%  
179 3% 59%  
180 5% 56%  
181 6% 51% Median
182 5% 44%  
183 2% 39%  
184 4% 37%  
185 6% 33%  
186 4% 27%  
187 2% 23%  
188 2% 21%  
189 3% 18%  
190 4% 15%  
191 1.3% 11%  
192 1.2% 10%  
193 2% 9%  
194 2% 6%  
195 0.9% 5%  
196 0.7% 4%  
197 0.7% 3%  
198 0.9% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.2% 1.2%  
201 0.3% 1.1%  
202 0.3% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.8%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.2% 99.4%  
141 0.3% 99.2%  
142 0.5% 98.9%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.7% 98%  
145 1.3% 97%  
146 1.0% 96%  
147 1.5% 95%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 92%  
150 3% 89%  
151 3% 86%  
152 3% 84%  
153 4% 81%  
154 4% 77%  
155 5% 73%  
156 5% 68%  
157 4% 63%  
158 5% 60%  
159 5% 55% Median
160 5% 50%  
161 5% 45%  
162 3% 39%  
163 5% 36%  
164 5% 31%  
165 5% 27%  
166 3% 22%  
167 3% 19%  
168 3% 16%  
169 2% 13%  
170 3% 11%  
171 1.4% 8%  
172 2% 7%  
173 1.3% 5%  
174 1.0% 4%  
175 0.7% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.4% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.3%  
179 0.3% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.7%  
181 0.1% 0.5%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.1% 99.4%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 1.1% 99.0%  
92 0.4% 98%  
93 0.5% 97%  
94 2% 97%  
95 2% 95%  
96 1.2% 92%  
97 2% 91%  
98 6% 89%  
99 2% 83%  
100 3% 80%  
101 6% 77%  
102 7% 71%  
103 3% 64%  
104 5% 61%  
105 9% 56% Median
106 5% 48%  
107 6% 42%  
108 5% 37%  
109 6% 32%  
110 3% 26%  
111 4% 22%  
112 5% 19%  
113 2% 14%  
114 3% 12%  
115 2% 9%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.1% 5%  
118 1.4% 4%  
119 0.8% 3%  
120 0.3% 2%  
121 0.7% 2%  
122 0.3% 1.0%  
123 0.1% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.6% 98.9%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 4% 89%  
77 4% 85%  
78 4% 81%  
79 6% 77%  
80 6% 71%  
81 6% 66%  
82 7% 59%  
83 7% 52% Median
84 5% 46%  
85 6% 40%  
86 6% 34%  
87 5% 28%  
88 5% 23%  
89 4% 19%  
90 4% 15%  
91 3% 11%  
92 2% 9%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.2% 5% Last Result
95 1.2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.4% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 0.7% 98.6%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 1.2% 97%  
73 1.5% 96%  
74 1.3% 94%  
75 2% 93%  
76 2% 91%  
77 4% 89%  
78 6% 85%  
79 6% 80%  
80 8% 73% Last Result
81 8% 65%  
82 9% 57% Median
83 7% 48%  
84 6% 41%  
85 6% 35%  
86 5% 30%  
87 4% 25%  
88 3% 21%  
89 2% 18%  
90 2% 16%  
91 3% 14%  
92 3% 11%  
93 2% 8%  
94 2% 6%  
95 1.3% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 0.6% 99.3%  
50 1.1% 98.6%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 2% 94%  
54 3% 92%  
55 5% 88%  
56 6% 83%  
57 5% 78%  
58 7% 72%  
59 7% 65%  
60 7% 58%  
61 7% 51% Median
62 7% 44%  
63 7% 36%  
64 6% 29%  
65 4% 23%  
66 4% 18%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.2%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 0.7% 99.1%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 5% 94%  
32 6% 89%  
33 7% 83%  
34 7% 76%  
35 7% 69%  
36 7% 61%  
37 10% 54% Median
38 9% 44%  
39 9% 35%  
40 7% 25%  
41 6% 19%  
42 4% 13%  
43 3% 9%  
44 2% 7%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.2% 3% Last Result
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 482 100% 471–493 468–496 465–499 459–505
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 448–471 445–475 442–478 436–483
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 385 99.9% 373–397 369–400 366–403 360–409
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 377 99.0% 365–389 361–392 358–396 352–401
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 369 94% 356–381 353–385 350–389 345–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 362 79% 350–374 347–378 343–381 338–387
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 347 21% 335–359 331–362 328–366 322–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 302 0% 290–314 286–317 283–320 277–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 286 0% 274–298 271–301 268–305 262–311
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 279 0% 267–291 264–295 261–298 255–304
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 267–291 264–294 261–298 256–303
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 188 0% 177–199 175–203 172–205 167–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 156–176 153–180 150–182 146–187

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.2% 99.7%  
459 0.1% 99.5%  
460 0.3% 99.4%  
461 0.3% 99.1%  
462 0.4% 98.8%  
463 0.3% 98%  
464 0.6% 98%  
465 0.4% 98%  
466 1.0% 97% Last Result
467 0.9% 96%  
468 1.2% 95%  
469 2% 94%  
470 2% 92%  
471 1.0% 90%  
472 3% 89%  
473 1.4% 86%  
474 3% 85%  
475 4% 82%  
476 4% 78%  
477 3% 74%  
478 5% 71%  
479 3% 66%  
480 4% 63%  
481 5% 59%  
482 4% 54% Median
483 6% 50%  
484 5% 44%  
485 4% 39%  
486 5% 36%  
487 4% 31%  
488 2% 27%  
489 4% 25%  
490 3% 21%  
491 3% 18%  
492 2% 15%  
493 3% 13%  
494 2% 10%  
495 2% 8%  
496 1.3% 6%  
497 1.1% 5%  
498 0.9% 4%  
499 0.7% 3%  
500 0.4% 2%  
501 0.5% 2%  
502 0.3% 1.4%  
503 0.3% 1.1%  
504 0.2% 0.8%  
505 0.2% 0.6%  
506 0.1% 0.4%  
507 0.1% 0.3%  
508 0% 0.2%  
509 0.1% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.6%  
437 0.1% 99.4%  
438 0.4% 99.3%  
439 0.5% 99.0%  
440 0.2% 98.5%  
441 0.4% 98%  
442 1.1% 98%  
443 0.6% 97%  
444 0.3% 96%  
445 2% 96%  
446 2% 94%  
447 0.5% 92%  
448 4% 92%  
449 3% 88%  
450 0.6% 86%  
451 3% 85%  
452 4% 82%  
453 1.1% 78%  
454 2% 77%  
455 8% 75%  
456 3% 67%  
457 2% 64%  
458 7% 62%  
459 4% 55% Median
460 2% 51%  
461 6% 49%  
462 5% 43%  
463 1.2% 38%  
464 4% 37%  
465 8% 33%  
466 1.5% 25%  
467 2% 23%  
468 5% 21%  
469 2% 16%  
470 1.3% 14%  
471 3% 13%  
472 2% 9%  
473 0.5% 8%  
474 2% 7%  
475 2% 6%  
476 0.3% 4%  
477 0.6% 4%  
478 1.2% 3%  
479 0.2% 2%  
480 0.4% 2%  
481 0.5% 1.2%  
482 0.1% 0.7%  
483 0.1% 0.6%  
484 0.2% 0.5%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0% 0.2%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0.1% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.6%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.3% 99.2%  
363 0.4% 98.9%  
364 0.4% 98.6%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.6% 98%  
367 0.6% 97%  
368 1.0% 96%  
369 0.9% 95%  
370 1.1% 94%  
371 2% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 3% 90%  
374 2% 88%  
375 3% 86%  
376 4% 83%  
377 3% 79%  
378 3% 76%  
379 4% 73%  
380 4% 70%  
381 3% 66%  
382 3% 63%  
383 4% 59% Median
384 4% 55%  
385 5% 52%  
386 3% 47%  
387 5% 44%  
388 4% 39%  
389 5% 35%  
390 3% 30%  
391 4% 27%  
392 3% 23%  
393 2% 20%  
394 3% 18%  
395 3% 15%  
396 1.4% 12%  
397 2% 11%  
398 2% 9%  
399 1.4% 7%  
400 1.2% 6%  
401 0.8% 5%  
402 1.0% 4%  
403 0.5% 3%  
404 0.6% 2%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.3% 1.4%  
407 0.3% 1.1%  
408 0.2% 0.8%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0%  
421 0% 0%  
422 0% 0%  
423 0% 0%  
424 0% 0%  
425 0% 0%  
426 0% 0%  
427 0% 0%  
428 0% 0%  
429 0% 0%  
430 0% 0%  
431 0% 0%  
432 0% 0%  
433 0% 0%  
434 0% 0%  
435 0% 0%  
436 0% 0%  
437 0% 0%  
438 0% 0%  
439 0% 0%  
440 0% 0%  
441 0% 0%  
442 0% 0%  
443 0% 0%  
444 0% 0%  
445 0% 0%  
446 0% 0%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.3%  
355 0.4% 99.0% Majority
356 0.4% 98.6%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.5% 98%  
359 0.7% 97%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 1.5% 96%  
362 1.1% 94%  
363 1.3% 93%  
364 1.2% 92%  
365 2% 91%  
366 3% 89%  
367 3% 86%  
368 3% 83%  
369 2% 80%  
370 3% 78%  
371 4% 75%  
372 3% 71%  
373 4% 68%  
374 4% 64%  
375 3% 60%  
376 3% 57%  
377 5% 54% Median
378 5% 48%  
379 6% 44%  
380 4% 38%  
381 3% 34%  
382 2% 31%  
383 4% 29%  
384 3% 25%  
385 4% 22%  
386 2% 18%  
387 3% 16%  
388 2% 14%  
389 2% 12%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 8%  
392 0.8% 6%  
393 0.8% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.7% 3%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.5%  
399 0.3% 1.2%  
400 0.2% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.7%  
344 0.1% 99.6%  
345 0.2% 99.5%  
346 0.3% 99.3%  
347 0.2% 99.0%  
348 0.5% 98.8%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.6% 98%  
351 0.9% 97%  
352 0.7% 96%  
353 1.2% 96%  
354 0.9% 95%  
355 1.4% 94% Majority
356 3% 92%  
357 2% 90%  
358 1.1% 88%  
359 3% 87%  
360 3% 84%  
361 4% 82%  
362 4% 78%  
363 2% 74%  
364 3% 72%  
365 6% 69%  
366 5% 64%  
367 3% 59%  
368 3% 55% Median
369 4% 52%  
370 5% 48%  
371 3% 43%  
372 4% 40%  
373 3% 36%  
374 3% 33%  
375 5% 29%  
376 4% 25%  
377 1.4% 21%  
378 4% 20%  
379 3% 16%  
380 2% 13%  
381 1.4% 11%  
382 1.2% 9%  
383 2% 8%  
384 1.2% 6%  
385 0.8% 5%  
386 0.9% 4%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.4% 3%  
389 1.1% 3%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.3% 1.0%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.2% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.2% 99.4%  
340 0.5% 99.2%  
341 0.3% 98.7%  
342 0.4% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.4% 97%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 0.8% 96%  
347 1.3% 95%  
348 2% 94%  
349 1.1% 92%  
350 2% 91%  
351 1.3% 89%  
352 2% 87%  
353 3% 85%  
354 3% 82%  
355 3% 79% Majority
356 3% 75%  
357 3% 72%  
358 3% 70%  
359 3% 66%  
360 5% 63%  
361 4% 58% Median
362 6% 54%  
363 4% 48%  
364 3% 44%  
365 4% 42%  
366 4% 37%  
367 4% 34%  
368 5% 30%  
369 3% 24%  
370 2% 21%  
371 2% 20%  
372 2% 17%  
373 3% 15%  
374 3% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.3% 8%  
377 1.1% 7%  
378 0.8% 6%  
379 1.1% 5%  
380 0.9% 4%  
381 0.6% 3%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.3% 1.1%  
386 0.2% 0.8%  
387 0.2% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 99.4%  
324 0.3% 99.2%  
325 0.2% 98.9%  
326 0.3% 98.7%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.9% 97%  
330 1.1% 96%  
331 0.8% 95%  
332 1.1% 94%  
333 1.3% 93%  
334 2% 92%  
335 3% 90%  
336 3% 88%  
337 2% 85%  
338 2% 83%  
339 2% 80%  
340 3% 79%  
341 5% 76%  
342 4% 70%  
343 4% 66%  
344 4% 63%  
345 3% 58%  
346 4% 56%  
347 6% 52% Median
348 4% 46%  
349 5% 42%  
350 3% 37%  
351 3% 34%  
352 3% 30%  
353 3% 28%  
354 3% 25%  
355 3% 21% Majority
356 3% 18%  
357 2% 15%  
358 1.3% 13%  
359 2% 11%  
360 1.1% 9%  
361 2% 8%  
362 1.3% 6%  
363 0.8% 5%  
364 0.9% 4%  
365 0.4% 3%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.5% 1.3%  
370 0.2% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.3%  
280 0.3% 99.1%  
281 0.5% 98.8%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.6% 98%  
284 0.5% 97%  
285 1.0% 97%  
286 0.8% 96%  
287 2% 95%  
288 1.0% 93%  
289 2% 92%  
290 2% 90%  
291 3% 89%  
292 3% 86%  
293 2% 83%  
294 2% 81%  
295 5% 78%  
296 5% 74%  
297 3% 69%  
298 4% 66%  
299 2% 62%  
300 5% 60%  
301 4% 55% Median
302 3% 51%  
303 5% 47%  
304 4% 42%  
305 4% 38%  
306 4% 34%  
307 3% 30%  
308 3% 27%  
309 4% 24%  
310 2% 21%  
311 4% 18%  
312 2% 14%  
313 2% 12%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.5% 7%  
317 1.0% 5%  
318 0.5% 4%  
319 1.0% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 1.5%  
324 0.4% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0%  
341 0% 0%  
342 0% 0%  
343 0% 0%  
344 0% 0%  
345 0% 0%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.2% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.3% 99.2%  
265 0.3% 98.9%  
266 0.4% 98.6%  
267 0.6% 98%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.9% 97%  
270 0.8% 96%  
271 1.1% 95%  
272 2% 94%  
273 2% 93%  
274 2% 91%  
275 2% 89%  
276 3% 87%  
277 3% 84%  
278 3% 82%  
279 3% 79%  
280 4% 76%  
281 3% 72%  
282 4% 69%  
283 4% 65%  
284 4% 61%  
285 4% 57%  
286 5% 53% Median
287 4% 47%  
288 5% 44%  
289 4% 39%  
290 4% 34%  
291 3% 31%  
292 4% 27%  
293 3% 24%  
294 3% 20%  
295 2% 18%  
296 2% 16%  
297 2% 13%  
298 2% 11%  
299 1.2% 9%  
300 2% 8%  
301 1.1% 6%  
302 0.9% 5%  
303 0.6% 4%  
304 0.6% 3%  
305 0.5% 3%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.2% 1.2%  
309 0.2% 1.0%  
310 0.2% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.2% 99.2%  
258 0.4% 99.0%  
259 0.3% 98.6%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.7% 98%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 1.1% 96%  
264 1.0% 95%  
265 2% 94%  
266 1.0% 92%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 3% 87%  
270 2% 85%  
271 3% 82%  
272 4% 80%  
273 3% 76%  
274 3% 72%  
275 4% 69%  
276 3% 65%  
277 4% 62%  
278 3% 57%  
279 5% 54% Median
280 4% 49%  
281 3% 45%  
282 5% 41%  
283 3% 37%  
284 3% 33%  
285 4% 30%  
286 3% 26%  
287 3% 23%  
288 4% 20%  
289 2% 16%  
290 2% 14%  
291 2% 12%  
292 2% 9%  
293 1.3% 8%  
294 1.2% 6%  
295 1.1% 5%  
296 0.7% 4%  
297 0.7% 3%  
298 0.6% 3%  
299 0.5% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.3% 1.2%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.1% 0.7%  
304 0.2% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.4% 99.1%  
259 0.3% 98.7%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.8% 97%  
263 0.7% 96%  
264 1.2% 96%  
265 1.4% 94%  
266 1.1% 93%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 2% 88%  
270 3% 85%  
271 3% 83%  
272 4% 80%  
273 3% 76%  
274 4% 73%  
275 5% 70%  
276 3% 65%  
277 5% 62%  
278 4% 57% Median
279 4% 53%  
280 4% 49%  
281 3% 44%  
282 4% 41%  
283 4% 37%  
284 4% 33%  
285 4% 29%  
286 3% 26%  
287 2% 22%  
288 3% 20%  
289 3% 16%  
290 2% 13%  
291 2% 11%  
292 1.5% 9%  
293 2% 8%  
294 1.3% 6%  
295 0.7% 5%  
296 0.9% 4%  
297 0.8% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.3% 1.2%  
302 0.3% 0.9%  
303 0.2% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.3%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.6%  
168 0.2% 99.4%  
169 0.3% 99.2%  
170 0.4% 98.9%  
171 0.6% 98%  
172 0.6% 98%  
173 1.0% 97%  
174 1.1% 96%  
175 1.4% 95%  
176 2% 94%  
177 2% 92%  
178 2% 90%  
179 3% 88%  
180 3% 85%  
181 3% 82%  
182 3% 79%  
183 5% 76%  
184 5% 71%  
185 4% 66%  
186 4% 62%  
187 4% 58% Median
188 5% 54%  
189 5% 49%  
190 5% 44%  
191 3% 39%  
192 4% 35%  
193 4% 31%  
194 4% 27%  
195 4% 23%  
196 2% 20%  
197 4% 17%  
198 2% 14%  
199 2% 12%  
200 2% 10%  
201 2% 8%  
202 1.0% 7%  
203 2% 6%  
204 0.7% 4%  
205 0.6% 3%  
206 0.5% 2%  
207 0.5% 2%  
208 0.3% 1.3%  
209 0.3% 1.0%  
210 0.2% 0.7%  
211 0.2% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.3%  
148 0.4% 99.1%  
149 0.7% 98.8%  
150 0.7% 98%  
151 0.7% 97%  
152 1.0% 97%  
153 2% 96%  
154 2% 94%  
155 1.5% 92%  
156 3% 90%  
157 3% 87%  
158 2% 84%  
159 2% 82%  
160 4% 79%  
161 5% 76%  
162 3% 70%  
163 4% 68%  
164 6% 64%  
165 5% 58%  
166 3% 52% Median
167 3% 49%  
168 8% 46%  
169 6% 38%  
170 3% 32%  
171 4% 29%  
172 6% 25%  
173 3% 19%  
174 2% 17%  
175 2% 15%  
176 3% 13%  
177 2% 10%  
178 0.9% 8%  
179 1.4% 7%  
180 2% 5%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.2% 0.9%  
187 0.3% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations